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Forecasting Tesla’s Stock Price Using the ARIMA Model 用ARIMA模型预测特斯拉的股价
Pub Date : 2022-10-21 DOI: 10.26689/pbes.v5i5.4331
Qiangwei Weng, Ruohan Liu, Zheng Tao
The stock market is an important economic information center. The economic benefits generated by stock price prediction have attracted much attention. Although the stock market cannot be predicted accurately, the stock market’s prediction of the trend of stock prices helps in grasping the operation law of the stock market and the influence mechanism on the economy. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is one of the most widely accepted and used time series forecasting models. Therefore, this paper first compares the return on investment (ROI) of Apple and Tesla, revealing that the ROI of Tesla is much greater than that of Apple, and subsequently focuses on ARIMA model’s prediction on the available time series data, thus concluding that the ARIMA model is better than the Naïve method in predicting the change in Tesla’s stock price trend.
股票市场是一个重要的经济信息中心。股票价格预测所产生的经济效益已引起人们的广泛关注。虽然股票市场无法准确预测,但股票市场对股价走势的预测有助于把握股票市场的运行规律及其对经济的影响机制。自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型是目前公认和应用最广泛的时间序列预测模型之一。因此,本文首先比较了苹果和特斯拉的投资回报率(ROI),发现特斯拉的投资回报率远大于苹果,随后重点研究了ARIMA模型对现有时间序列数据的预测,得出ARIMA模型在预测特斯拉股价走势变化方面优于Naïve方法的结论。
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引用次数: 2
Research on Financial Lease Pricing Model 融资租赁定价模型研究
Pub Date : 2022-10-12 DOI: 10.26689/pbes.v5i5.4352
Haifeng Jiang, Ruby Refuerzo Buccat
Financial leasing is a financial innovation product with leasing and financing functions. The research on the theory of financial leasing and risk pricing methods should be highly valued. Rent is set based on the total revenue of the lessor and the total cost of the lessee. The factors that affect pricing include project costs, security deposits, fees, lease terms, revenue, interest rates, etc. Using the principle of net present value to elaborate the components of financial leases and constructing a financial lease pricing model from the perspective of maximizing the profit and interests of the lessor, an empirical analysis of the model was carried out using an actual case, thus concluding that the model is effective.
融资租赁是一种兼具租赁和融资功能的金融创新产品。对融资租赁理论和风险定价方法的研究值得重视。租金是根据出租人的总收入和承租人的总成本来确定的。影响定价的因素包括项目成本、保证金、费用、租赁条款、收入、利率等。运用净现值原理阐述融资租赁的构成要素,从出租人利润和利益最大化的角度构建融资租赁定价模型,并结合实际案例对模型进行实证分析,得出模型是有效的结论。
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引用次数: 1
Research on the Countermeasures of Smart Tourism Construction in Sanya Under the Background of Free Trade Port Construction 自由贸易港建设背景下三亚智慧旅游建设对策研究
Pub Date : 2022-09-05 DOI: 10.26689/pbes.v5i5.3783
Kun-Min Zhang, Xuebing Huang, Dongwei Yang, Kaparova·Kumushai, Zilu Zhang
By analyzing the current situation of smart tourism construction in combination with the actual tourism situation in Sanya, this study aims to find out the problems existing in the current smart tourism construction and understand the various factors affecting the smart tourism construction in Sanya. Then, relevant theories and practical applications were used to study the ways to carry out smart tourism construction with the help of policy, location and other advantages to meet the needs of the development of the times. Based on the study, practical countermeasures and suggestions were given to provide reference for the construction of smart tourism, ensure the continuous improvement of smart tourism construction, and help the upgrading and transformation of tourism in Sanya. Based on the analysis of the construction and data of smart tourism and tourism informatization in Sanya, this article has formed a useful method to help Sanya build an international tourist island, as well as using the Hainan Free Trade Port construction policy to build a modern smart tourism city.
本研究通过分析智慧旅游建设的现状,结合三亚市旅游的实际情况,找出当前智慧旅游建设中存在的问题,了解影响三亚市智慧旅游建设的各种因素。然后,运用相关理论和实际应用,研究如何借助政策、区位等优势开展智慧旅游建设,以适应时代发展的需要。在研究的基础上,提出切实可行的对策和建议,为智慧旅游建设提供参考,确保智慧旅游建设不断完善,助力三亚市旅游业升级转型。本文通过对三亚智慧旅游和旅游信息化建设和数据的分析,形成了帮助三亚建设国际旅游岛,以及利用海南自由贸易港建设政策建设现代智慧旅游城市的有益方法。
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引用次数: 0
Research on Tourism Brand Mascot Promotion 旅游品牌吉祥物推广研究
Pub Date : 2022-08-19 DOI: 10.26689/pbes.v5i4.4155
Guanqi Qiu
With the development of China’s tourism industry, the promotion of tourism brand mascots should be further optimized. By improving the promotion of tourism brand mascots, the connotation of tourism can be effectively expanded, so as to attract more consumers to participate in tourism activities. Promoting the mascots of tourism brands from different angles and levels will help increase the popularity of tourism brands and enhance people’s understanding of the culture and connotation of tourism brands [1]. Therefore, this article will discuss the promotion of tourism brand mascots and put forward several strategies for reference.
随着中国旅游业的发展,旅游品牌吉祥物的推广应进一步优化。通过完善旅游品牌吉祥物的推广,可以有效扩大旅游的内涵,从而吸引更多的消费者参与到旅游活动中来。从不同的角度和层次对旅游品牌吉祥物进行推广,有助于提高旅游品牌的知名度,增强人们对旅游品牌文化和内涵的了解[1]。因此,本文将对旅游品牌吉祥物的推广进行探讨,并提出几点可供参考的策略。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on Guangdong Province Foreign Trade Business Environment Evaluation and Optimization Research 广东省外贸经营环境评价与优化研究
Pub Date : 2022-08-18 DOI: 10.26689/pbes.v5i4.4156
Yun Liu, Rouling Liao, Tingchen Wang
By constructing a comprehensive evaluation system for Guangdong’s foreign trade business environment based on the annual data from 2015 to 2019, factor analysis and entropy weight method are adopted to analyze Guangdong’s foreign trade business environment in recent years. This study discusses the aspects that the government should focus on in order to improve the foreign trade business environment more effectively. The results of the study are as follows: first, the overall differences in the foreign trade business environment of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration are small, and the cities play an important role in improving the foreign trade business environment; second, the foreign trade business environment is not fully constrained by economic development, so the foreign trade business environment can be more advanced than the city’s economic level and serve as the impetus for economic growth; third, there has been an improvement in how the attractiveness of foreign capital influences the foreign trade business environment. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement should be implemented in local cities, in order to construct an institutional framework of fair competition, enhance the transparency of investment barriers, and strengthen the protection of foreign investors’ rights.
以2015 - 2019年的年度数据为基础,构建广东省外贸营商环境综合评价体系,采用因子分析法和熵权法对广东省近年来的外贸营商环境进行分析。本文探讨了政府应重点关注的方面,以更有效地改善外贸经营环境。研究结果表明:一是珠三角城市群对外贸易营商环境总体差异较小,城市在改善对外贸易营商环境方面发挥了重要作用;第二,外贸营商环境不完全受经济发展的制约,因此外贸营商环境可以比城市的经济水平更先进,成为经济增长的动力;三是外资吸引力对外贸经营环境的影响有所改善。区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)应在地方城市实施,构建公平竞争的制度框架,提高投资壁垒的透明度,加强对外国投资者权利的保护。
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引用次数: 1
A Study on the Influence of External Stimuli and Psychological Processes on Stationery Purchase Behavior Based on SOR 基于SOR的外部刺激和心理过程对文具购买行为的影响研究
Pub Date : 2022-08-18 DOI: 10.26689/pbes.v5i4.4285
Yiqi Li
Based on the SOR (stimulus–organism–response) model to obtain 534 survey data from the MTurk platform, the relationship between external stimuli, psychological processes, and consumers’ stationery purchasing behavior was empirically analyzed using a multivariate ordered logistic regression model. In terms of marketing stimuli, consumers’ recognition of product quality and price as well as the convenience of purchasing channels significantly and positively influenced purchasing behavior; in terms of social stimuli, self’s opinion of needs and the positive evaluation of peers significantly and positively influenced purchasing behavior; in terms of psychological process, consumers’ knowledge, trust, willingness to know, and preference for stationery products significantly and positively influenced purchasing behavior. Accordingly, it is proposed that, in order to promote the purchase of stationery products, the production and operation links should ensure the quality of stationery products, promote price control in a reasonable range, guarantee a healthy, orderly, and convenient stationery market environment, as well as strengthen the multi-sensory promotion of stationery products.
基于SOR(刺激-机体-反应)模型,从MTurk平台获取534份调查数据,运用多元有序logistic回归模型实证分析外部刺激、心理过程与消费者文具购买行为之间的关系。在营销刺激方面,消费者对产品质量和价格的认可度以及购买渠道的便利性显著正向影响购买行为;在社会刺激方面,自我需求观和同伴的积极评价显著正向影响购买行为;在心理过程上,消费者对文具产品的知识、信任、了解意愿和偏好对购买行为有显著的正向影响。据此提出,为促进文具产品的购买,生产经营环节应保证文具产品的质量,促进价格控制在合理范围内,保障健康、有序、便捷的文具市场环境,加强对文具产品的多感官推广。
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引用次数: 1
A Study on Foreign Trade Strategies from the Perspective of China’s Economic Transformation and Upgrading 中国经济转型升级视角下的对外贸易战略研究
Pub Date : 2022-08-18 DOI: 10.26689/pbes.v5i4.4306
Siyi Feng, Renxi Gu
Under the perspective of China’s economic transformation and upgrading, foreign trade is facing pressure from the transformation of internal economic capacity and external trade environment. It is urgent to explore new paths and directions, in order to realize the common evolution of the society, economy, system, and environment in China. From the rapid expansion of foreign trade in China towards high quality development, it is necessary to emphasize on the system, motivation, ability, and pattern; explore new development modes, change the development philosophy, delve into the connotation and characteristics of development, system supply, and organizational and technological innovation; as well as focus on cultivating a constant innovation drive, while capturing value and optimizing the foreign trade environment.
在中国经济转型升级的大背景下,外贸面临着内部经济能力转型和外部贸易环境的双重压力。迫切需要探索新的路径和方向,以实现中国社会、经济、制度和环境的共同演变。中国对外贸易从快速扩张走向高质量发展,要强调体制、动力、能力、格局;探索新的发展方式,转变发展理念,深入研究发展、制度供给、组织创新和技术创新的内涵和特点;注重培育持续创新动力,同时抓住价值,优化外贸环境。
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引用次数: 0
A Brief Discussion on Consumption Tax Planning 略论消费税筹划
Pub Date : 2022-08-18 DOI: 10.26689/pbes.v5i4.4201
Fang He
Consumption tax is calibrated within the price. The amount of consumption tax will directly affect the profits of enterprises. On a law-abiding premise, it is crucial to plan the consumption tax, reduce the burden of consumption tax, and increase the profits of enterprises. This article proposes several consumption tax planning strategies and methods to provide reference for taxpayers from three aspects: the scope of tax collection, the basis of tax calculation, and the tax rate.
消费税是在价格范围内调整的。消费税的多少将直接影响到企业的利润。在守法的前提下,规划消费税,减轻消费税负担,增加企业利润是至关重要的。本文从征税范围、计税依据、税率三个方面提出了几种消费税筹划策略和方法,为纳税人提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Motivation and Performance Analyses of Suning’s Acquisition of Carrefour 苏宁收购家乐福的动因与绩效分析
Pub Date : 2022-08-12 DOI: 10.26689/pbes.v5i4.4097
Ying Gu, Guangxu Wang, Sisi Chen
In the new era of China’s retail business transformation, retail enterprises have launched online and offline omni-channels, developed all-category business models, and taken the step toward merger and acquisition expansion. This paper studies and analyzes the motivation and performance of Suning’s merger and acquisition of Carrefour China through literature research, case study, the financial index method, non-financial index method, and comparative analysis method. Based on the analysis, this merger and acquisition has improved Suning’s management efficiency but reduced its profitability and increased its risks, mainly due to the pressure of traditional business sales, the unstable operating channels, and the fact that the integration of the two parties has not achieved the desired results.
在中国零售商业转型的新时代,零售企业纷纷推出线上线下全渠道,发展全品类商业模式,并迈出并购扩张的步伐。本文通过文献研究法、案例研究法、财务指标法、非财务指标法和比较分析法,对苏宁并购家乐福中国的动因和绩效进行研究和分析。通过分析,此次并购提高了苏宁的管理效率,但降低了其盈利能力,增加了其风险,主要原因是传统业务销售的压力,经营渠道的不稳定,以及双方的整合没有达到预期的效果。
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引用次数: 0
Airlines Cost Control in China: An Overlooked Perspective 中国航空公司成本控制:一个被忽视的视角
Pub Date : 2022-08-12 DOI: 10.26689/pbes.v5i4.4119
Hong Wang
With the deepening of economic globalization, the business environment has seen profound changes. The cost of aviation fuel has grown to represent a significant portion of air transportation costs for “energy-dependent” airlines. The cost of aviation fuel makes up a sizeable amount of Chinese airlines’ cost structure and is increasingly limiting their profitability. The question of how to control the cost of aviation fuel from various perspectives has garnered widespread attention. This paper puts forward an overlooked perspective – the procurement strategy. Firstly, it describes the necessity of aviation fuel cost control, and then analyzes specific cases of aviation fuel procurement cost control. Finally, it proposes several effective suggestions from the perspective of aviation fuel procurement, aiming to improve the refined management of Chinese airlines’ aviation fuel procurement.
随着经济全球化深入发展,营商环境发生深刻变化。对于“能源依赖型”航空公司来说,航空燃料的成本已经增长到占航空运输成本的很大一部分。航空燃油成本在中国航空公司的成本结构中占相当大的比例,并日益限制它们的盈利能力。如何从各个角度控制航空燃料成本的问题引起了广泛关注。本文提出了一个被忽视的视角——采购策略。首先阐述了航空燃油成本控制的必要性,然后分析了航空燃油采购成本控制的具体案例。最后,从航空燃油采购的角度提出了一些有效的建议,旨在提高我国航空公司航空燃油采购的精细化管理水平。
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引用次数: 0
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Proceedings of Business and Economic Studies
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