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Tariffs and U.S. beer demand: How protectionist policies could impact market shares and consumer welfare 关税和美国啤酒需求:保护主义政策如何影响市场份额和消费者福利
IF 6 1区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102947
Aaron J. Staples , Michael McCullough
Tariffs disrupt global food and beverage trade patterns. This includes the U.S. beer industry, which relies on international trade for agricultural and non-agricultural input exchange, as well as on the global distribution networks of a few multinational beer firms. This study uses a discrete choice experiment, latent class modeling, and market simulations to assess the potential effects of tariffs on beer demand, market shares, and consumer welfare. The results suggest that while tariffs could stimulate domestic production, any gains in domestic market share will most likely be concentrated among multinational firms rather than the nearly 10,000 small, independently-owned craft breweries. In fact, the craft beer industry could lose market share if limited economies of scale, greater reliance on imported materials, and restricted supply chain flexibility lead to higher proportional price increases compared to non-craft domestic beer. This could threaten the long-term financial sustainability of some small businesses and have ripple effects across broader local economies. Recognizing that consumers share the burden imposed by tariffs, the results also indicate that tariffs decrease consumer welfare by $59.1 to $306.4 million, with the magnitude of the estimate depending on the tariff regime and corresponding retail price increases. Taken together, the results provide important context on how tariff policy could impact the investment decisions of multinational firms, affect small businesses, and negatively impact consumer well-being. These insights have implications for policymakers and industry stakeholders navigating the rapidly evolving international trade landscape.
关税扰乱了全球食品和饮料贸易格局。这包括美国啤酒行业,它依赖于农业和非农业投入交换的国际贸易,以及一些跨国啤酒公司的全球分销网络。本研究采用离散选择实验、潜在阶级模型和市场模拟来评估关税对啤酒需求、市场份额和消费者福利的潜在影响。结果表明,虽然关税可以刺激国内生产,但国内市场份额的任何增长都很可能集中在跨国公司身上,而不是近万家小型、独立拥有的精酿啤酒厂。事实上,如果规模经济有限,对进口原料的依赖程度更高,供应链灵活性受限,导致价格涨幅高于非精酿国产啤酒,精酿啤酒行业可能会失去市场份额。这可能会威胁到一些小企业的长期财务可持续性,并对更广泛的地方经济产生连锁反应。考虑到消费者分担关税带来的负担,研究结果还表明,关税使消费者福利减少了591亿至3.064亿美元,估计的幅度取决于关税制度和相应的零售价格上涨。综上所述,这些结果为关税政策如何影响跨国公司的投资决策、影响小企业并对消费者福祉产生负面影响提供了重要背景。这些见解对决策者和行业利益相关者在快速变化的国际贸易格局中导航具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Methane from cattle: facing realities in the global south 牛的甲烷:面对南半球的现实
IF 6 1区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102949
Robert Paarlberg
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引用次数: 0
Economic analysis of food self-sufficiency: modeling and application to the case of Israel 粮食自给自足的经济分析:建模及其在以色列的应用
IF 6 1区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102979
Yehuda Slater , Israel Finkelshtain , Aron M Troen , Iddo Kan
We develop a partial equilibrium model to assess the agro-economic implications of food self-sufficiency policies aimed at reducing a developed country’s exposure to shocks in the world food markets. We apply the model to Israel, a country with a high dependence on food imports, rapid population growth, and a vegetative agricultural sector specializing in fresh fruit and vegetable production subject to land, labor, and water constraints. We simulate different levels of self-sufficiency, measured in relation to the vegetative food products recommended for consumption by the EAT–Lancet Commission (Willett et al. 2019). We find that, under Israel’s population and agricultural production resources in 2019 (our baseline year), the country can self-supply the EAT–Lancet vegetative diet, although not all nutritional intakes (particularly fat, energy, and protein) recommended by the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies (IMNA 2005) will be met. Increasing self-sufficiency requires shifting agricultural resources from the production of fresh vegetative products to more storable—and therefore more importable—products such as cereals, oils, fats, legumes, seeds, and nuts. Because such crops consume less water and labor than fruits and vegetables, land remains the main resource constraining self-sufficiency. We show that self-supply of the vegetative dietary needs of Israel’s forecasted population over the coming decades will necessitate expanding the country’s agricultural land resources and/or maintaining large stocks of storable-food products. Achieving high levels of self-sufficiency would inflict pronounced welfare loss, particularly to the farming sector. Consequently, subsidies to incentivize self-sufficiency would entail significant governmental expenditures.
我们开发了一个部分均衡模型来评估粮食自给政策对农业经济的影响,该政策旨在减少发达国家受世界粮食市场冲击的影响。我们将该模型应用于以色列,这是一个高度依赖粮食进口、人口快速增长、受土地、劳动力和水资源限制,专门从事新鲜水果和蔬菜生产的植物农业部门的国家。我们模拟了不同程度的自给自足,根据EAT-Lancet委员会推荐的食用植物食品来衡量(Willett et al. 2019)。我们发现,根据以色列2019年(我们的基准年)的人口和农业生产资源,该国可以自给自足EAT-Lancet植物性饮食,尽管并非所有营养摄入量(特别是脂肪、能量和蛋白质)都能满足美国国家科学院医学研究所(IMNA 2005)的建议。提高自给自足需要将农业资源从生产新鲜的植物产品转移到更容易储存、因此更容易进口的产品,如谷物、油、脂肪、豆类、种子和坚果。由于这类作物比水果和蔬菜消耗更少的水和劳动力,土地仍然是制约自给自足的主要资源。我们表明,在未来几十年里,以色列预计人口的植物性饮食需求的自我供应将需要扩大该国的农业用地资源和/或维持大量储存食品的库存。实现高度的自给自足将造成明显的福利损失,特别是对农业部门。因此,鼓励自给自足的补贴将需要大量的政府支出。
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引用次数: 0
Can unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) adoption reduce pesticide use and enhance yields? Evidence from mountainous rice farming in Yunnan, China 采用无人机(UAV)能减少农药使用并提高产量吗?来自中国云南山区水稻种植的证据
IF 6 1区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102965
Junpeng Li , Wanglin Ma , Bowen Shen , Longwei Li
Enhancing food security while reducing pesticide use is central to sustainable agricultural development. Mountainous regions, characterized by fragile ecosystems and intensive pesticide use, present a major challenge. This study investigates how the adoption of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) affects pesticide expenditure and rice yields in such regions, using data from 520 rice growers in Yunnan province, China. Employing a conditional mixed process model, we find that UAV adoption reduces pesticide expenditure by 77.3 yuan/mu and increases rice yields by 196.9 kg/mu. Disaggregated analyses reveal that the pesticide reduction effect due to UAV adoption is more pronounced among farmers with smaller landholdings and those cultivating fertile soil. Rice farmers cultivating large and fertile farmland receive more yield improvement from using UAVs for pesticide application. Quantile regression further indicates that the positive impacts of UAV adoption are greater among farmers with higher initial pesticide use and yields. Moreover, a higher intensity of UAV use is significantly associated with lower pesticide costs and greater rice output. These findings suggest that policies should promote UAV adoption and support deeper integration into farming practices to maximize environmental and productivity gains. Targeted subsidies, training programs, and financial incentives—especially for smallholder farmers in mountainous regions—can accelerate adoption and ensure equitable access. Moreover, fostering local UAV service providers and strengthening rural infrastructure can further enhance the efficiency and scalability of precision agriculture in challenging terrains.
在减少农药使用的同时加强粮食安全是可持续农业发展的核心。以脆弱的生态系统和密集的农药使用为特征的山区是一个重大挑战。本研究利用中国云南省520名水稻种植者的数据,调查了无人机(uav)的采用如何影响这些地区的农药支出和水稻产量。采用有条件混合过程模型,发现采用无人机可减少农药支出77.3元/亩,水稻增产196.9 kg/亩。分类分析表明,在土地面积较小和土壤肥沃的农民中,采用无人机减少农药的效果更为明显。种植大片肥沃农田的稻农通过使用无人机施用农药获得了更多的产量提高。分位数回归进一步表明,在初始农药使用量和产量较高的农民中,采用无人机的积极影响更大。此外,更高的无人机使用强度与更低的农药成本和更高的水稻产量显著相关。这些发现表明,政策应促进无人机的采用,并支持无人机更深层次地融入农业实践,以最大限度地提高环境和生产力。有针对性的补贴、培训计划和财政激励——特别是针对山区的小农——可以加速采用并确保公平获取。此外,培育当地无人机服务提供商和加强农村基础设施可以进一步提高精准农业在具有挑战性地形中的效率和可扩展性。
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引用次数: 0
From promises to action: Analyzing global commitments to tackle hunger and food insecurity 从承诺到行动:分析解决饥饿和粮食不安全问题的全球承诺
IF 6 1区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102968
Christina Zorbas , Danielle Resnick , Eleanor Jones , Shoba Suri , Elyse Iruhiriye , Derek Headey , Will Martin , Rob Vos , Purnima Menon
High-level declarations and commitment statements are a common output of global, intergovernmental meetings and critical to their continued public legitimacy. Yet, to what extent have such statements served as roadmaps for concrete action? To address this question, this paper focuses on commitments to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2, which aims to end hunger, achieve food security, and promote sustainable agriculture by 2030. Using a structured framework with seven domains, we analyzed 148 intergovernmental commitment documents emerging from 78 global meetings focused on SDG2 and organized by ten different global bodies between 2015 and 2023.
We find that stated visions to address SDG2 increasingly have been emphasized at global meetings over time but that specific actions to accelerate progress towards SDG2 were weaker. For instance, we find few examples of how needed actions will be scaled up over time, how financing might be mobilized, and how to strengthen horizontal (i.e. multi-sectoral) and vertical (i.e. multi-level) policy coherence. Progress reports are often identified as the main tool for providing public accountability, but there rarely are any consequences to governments for failure to uphold their commitments. We offer several policy recommendations emanating from the analysis, including the need to institutionalize monitoring of SDG2 commitments—not just targets—in the next five years, and a better understanding of political economy factors that may inhibit global decisions from translating into national policy decisions.
高级别宣言和承诺声明是全球政府间会议的共同成果,对其持续的公共合法性至关重要。然而,这些声明在多大程度上起到了具体行动路线图的作用?为解决这一问题,本文重点介绍了对可持续发展目标(SDG) 2的承诺,该目标旨在到2030年消除饥饿、实现粮食安全并促进可持续农业。我们使用包含7个领域的结构化框架,分析了2015年至2023年间由10个不同的全球机构组织的78次以可持续发展目标2为重点的全球会议上产生的148份政府间承诺文件。我们发现,随着时间的推移,全球会议越来越多地强调解决可持续发展目标2的既定愿景,但加速实现可持续发展目标2的具体行动却比较薄弱。例如,我们发现很少有例子说明如何随着时间的推移扩大所需的行动,如何调动资金,以及如何加强横向(即多部门)和纵向(即多层次)的政策一致性。进度报告通常被认为是提供公共问责制的主要工具,但很少有政府因未能履行其承诺而承担任何后果。我们从分析中提出了几项政策建议,包括需要在未来五年内将可持续发展目标2承诺的监测制度化,而不仅仅是目标,以及更好地理解可能阻碍全球决策转化为国家政策决策的政治经济因素。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating the multiplicity of sustainability policies in agribusiness supply networks: The role of policy brokers and advocates 在农业综合企业供应网络中导航可持续性政策的多样性:政策经纪人和倡导者的作用
IF 6 1区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102973
Sajad Fayezi , Maryam Zomorrodi
As pressure for sustainability performance increases from corporate, state, and non-state stakeholders, so does the complexity of the regulatory environment and associated policy regimes. This complexity is well characterized by the multiplicity of sustainability policies, which poses significant challenges—including policy tensions—for firms and their supply network partners to navigate. Despite its importance, this phenomenon has received limited scholarly attention. Using the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF), we investigate how policy brokers and advocates influence firm and supply network responses to sustainability policy tensions. Drawing on rich qualitative data from the palm oil sector, our findings identify two categories of policy tensions—exclusionary dynamics and framing/narrative struggles—which emerge from sociopolitical contestations pertaining to multiple sustainability policies. We identify six influence mechanisms (standard-setting, assurance systems, mediation; campaigning, legitimacy, collaboration) used by policy brokers and advocates to support firms in navigating policy tensions. Our study advances the ACF by extending the concept of policy subsystems to transnational supply networks and by unpacking how intermediary actors mobilize belief-driven coalitions to navigate contested policy environments. For practitioners, the study provides guidance on developing supply network governance and adaptation strategies to navigate complex and contested sustainability regulatory environments and foster sustainable supply networks. For policymakers, the study underscores the importance of inclusive, coordinated governance—emphasizing the need for co-regulatory models, communication equity, and managed multiplicity over one-size-fits-all harmonization. These insights provide a diagnostic framework and actionable strategies for navigating sustainability policy multiplicity in agribusiness commodity sectors.
随着来自企业、国家和非国家利益相关者对可持续发展绩效的压力增加,监管环境和相关政策制度的复杂性也在增加。可持续性政策的多样性很好地体现了这种复杂性,这给公司及其供应网络合作伙伴带来了重大挑战,包括政策紧张。尽管这一现象很重要,但学术界对它的关注却很有限。利用倡导联盟框架(ACF),我们调查了政策经纪人和倡导者如何影响公司和供应网络对可持续性政策紧张局势的反应。根据棕榈油行业丰富的定性数据,我们的研究结果确定了两类政策紧张——排斥性动态和框架/叙事斗争——它们来自与多种可持续性政策相关的社会政治争论。我们确定了政策经纪人和倡导者使用的六种影响机制(标准制定、保证系统、调解、竞选、合法性、协作)来支持公司应对政策紧张局势。我们的研究通过将政策子系统的概念扩展到跨国供应网络,并通过揭示中介行为者如何动员信念驱动的联盟来应对有争议的政策环境,从而推进了ACF。对于从业者来说,该研究为开发供应网络治理和适应策略提供了指导,以应对复杂和有争议的可持续性监管环境,并促进可持续的供应网络。对于政策制定者来说,该研究强调了包容性、协调性治理的重要性,强调了共同监管模式、沟通公平和可管理的多样性的必要性,而不是一刀切的协调。这些见解为引导农业综合商品部门的可持续性政策多样性提供了诊断框架和可操作策略。
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引用次数: 0
Financing agricultural innovation: Challenges and alternatives to venture capital in the AgTech sector 农业创新融资:农业科技领域风险资本的挑战和替代方案
IF 6 1区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102967
Jorge Fernandez-Vidal , Silverio Alarcon
Agricultural innovation is crucial for enhancing productivity, sustainability, and global food security. However, traditional venture capital (VC) models, designed for fast-scaling, high-liquidity sectors, often clash with the biological and regional realities of agriculture. This study examines financing frictions in AgTech by drawing on 71 semi-structured interviews with entrepreneurs, investors, farmers, and policymakers across five continents. We identify three primary tensions: (1) a misalignment between VC time horizons and agricultural innovation cycles; (2) the critical role of alternative patient capital (e.g., government grants, corporate strategic investments) in supporting AgTech venture survival and addressing some of the shortcomings of VC; and (3) significant regional heterogeneity that complicates global scaling. Our findings extend theories of entrepreneurial finance by illustrating how sector-specific characteristics disrupt standard investment models. We provide actionable insights for investors, entrepreneurs, agricultural policymakers, and development agencies seeking to foster innovation ecosystems that align with the slower pace of biological and environmental systems. The study highlights the importance of designing financing structures that respect, rather than attempt to override, the natural rhythms of agricultural development.
农业创新对提高生产力、可持续性和全球粮食安全至关重要。然而,传统的风险资本(VC)模式是为快速扩张、高流动性的行业设计的,往往与农业的生物和区域现实相冲突。本研究通过对五大洲的企业家、投资者、农民和政策制定者进行71次半结构化访谈,考察了农业科技领域的融资摩擦。我们确定了三个主要的紧张关系:(1)风险投资的时间范围与农业创新周期之间的不一致;(2)另类耐心资本(如政府拨款、企业战略投资)在支持农业科技创业生存和解决风险投资的一些缺点方面的关键作用;(3)显著的区域异质性使全球尺度复杂化。我们的研究结果通过说明行业特定特征如何扰乱标准投资模型,扩展了创业融资理论。我们为投资者、企业家、农业政策制定者和发展机构提供可操作的见解,以寻求培育与生物和环境系统的缓慢步伐相一致的创新生态系统。这项研究强调了设计尊重而不是试图推翻农业发展自然规律的融资结构的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Revealing fundamental demand parameters: A new theoretically consistent meta-regression approach to US food demand elasticities 揭示基本需求参数:一种新的理论一致的美国粮食需求弹性元回归方法
IF 6 1区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102951
Younghyeon Jeon , Wyatt Thompson , J. Isaac Miller , Hoa Hoang , David Abler
Demand elasticities are critical inputs for estimating the impacts of many food policies, yet efforts to derive these key parameters from past studies suffer from underlying inconsistencies. Typical demand elasticities drawn from meta-analyses often fail to deliver fundamental parameters consistent with economic theory. This practice could cause at least three drawbacks: (1) demand elasticities might violate symmetry, adding up, or other requirements of applied demand theory, (2) demands do not integrate into a utility function and cannot support welfare analysis, and (3) parameters often violate the theoretical underpinnings of the source studies from which they are drawn.
We propose a new meta-analysis approach that is consistent with demand theory. Using elasticities of past studies and market data as inputs, we estimate the fundamental parameters of a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System using nonlinear least squares augmented by a wild bootstrap for bias correction and to allow for heteroskedasticity across studies and products. The theoretically consistent matrix of price and expenditure elasticities for the seven major food categories in the United States is calculated from fundamental demand parameters and consequently can readily be updated. We compare this new approach to an atheoretical, purely statistical meta-analysis and find some departures from a statistics-driven approach. This approach overcomes the limitations of sparse data, supports practical applications in welfare and market analysis, and offers applied economists a more theory-consistent alternative.
需求弹性是估计许多粮食政策影响的关键输入,然而,从过去的研究中得出这些关键参数的努力存在潜在的不一致性。从元分析中得出的典型需求弹性往往无法提供与经济理论一致的基本参数。这种做法可能会造成至少三个缺点:(1)需求弹性可能违反对称性、累加性或应用需求理论的其他要求;(2)需求不整合到效用函数中,不能支持福利分析;(3)参数经常违反来源研究的理论基础。我们提出了一种新的与需求理论相一致的元分析方法。使用过去研究的弹性和市场数据作为输入,我们使用非线性最小二乘来估计二次型几乎理想需求系统的基本参数,并通过野生自举进行偏差校正,并允许研究和产品之间的异方差。美国七种主要食品的价格和支出弹性的理论上一致的矩阵是根据基本需求参数计算的,因此可以很容易地更新。我们将这种新方法与一种理论的、纯粹的统计荟萃分析进行比较,发现了一些与统计驱动方法的背离。这种方法克服了稀疏数据的局限性,支持在福利和市场分析中的实际应用,并为应用经济学家提供了一个更符合理论的选择。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating social vulnerability into food fraud vulnerability assessment: policy implications for authenticity in Spanish honey 将社会脆弱性纳入食品欺诈脆弱性评估:西班牙蜂蜜真实性的政策含义
IF 6 1区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102954
Claudia Coral, Dagmar Mithöfer
Cooperation on food fraud in the EU has become more structured since the establishment of the EU Food Fraud Network in 2013, with honey at the centre of recent regulatory changes regarding labelling and control measures. Despite progress, social vulnerability considerations have been largely overlooked in existing policy and academic discussions. Through narrative analysis of interviews with experts and actors from the Spanish honey value chain and European institutions, we explore nested layers of food fraud vulnerability: product and supply chain-related food fraud vulnerabilities, social vulnerabilities, institutional vulnerabilities, and vulnerabilities related to international trade and market dynamics. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding how these dynamics affect vulnerable actors and limit their ability to respond to fraud. In a sector dominated by small and medium-sized beekeepers, food fraud poses a major threat to the viability of beekeeping. Key vulnerabilities include regulatory gaps, inconsistent detection methods, and global trade pressures that disproportionately affect vulnerable value chain actors. In particular, we highlight social vulnerability factors like low participation in decision-making, and unequal distribution of fraud-related risks and responsibilities throughout the value chain, which undermine trust between actors. Beekeepers and their associations advocate for geographical indication (GI) schemes, direct trade, and short supply chains to reduce fraud risks, address power imbalances, and improve traceability and authenticity. This research highlights the need for regulatory frameworks that promote equity, transparency, and fair risk sharing. It contributes to embedding social vulnerability into food fraud vulnerability concepts and advocates for socially responsible governance that prioritizes the rights and resilience of all actors within the agri-food system.
自2013年欧盟食品欺诈网络成立以来,欧盟在食品欺诈方面的合作变得更加结构化,蜂蜜是最近关于标签和控制措施的监管变化的中心。尽管取得了进展,但在现有政策和学术讨论中,社会脆弱性的考虑在很大程度上被忽视了。通过对来自西班牙蜂蜜价值链和欧洲机构的专家和参与者的访谈进行叙事分析,我们探索了食品欺诈脆弱性的嵌套层:与产品和供应链相关的食品欺诈脆弱性,社会脆弱性,制度脆弱性以及与国际贸易和市场动态相关的脆弱性。特别强调的是了解这些动态如何影响弱势行为者并限制他们应对欺诈的能力。在一个以中小型养蜂人为主的行业,食品欺诈对养蜂业的生存能力构成了重大威胁。主要的脆弱性包括监管漏洞、检测方法不一致以及全球贸易压力,这些都对脆弱的价值链参与者造成了不成比例的影响。我们特别强调了社会脆弱性因素,如决策参与度低、欺诈相关风险和责任在整个价值链中的不平等分配,这些因素会破坏行为体之间的信任。养蜂人及其协会倡导地理标志(GI)计划、直接贸易和短供应链,以减少欺诈风险、解决权力不平衡问题,并提高可追溯性和真实性。这项研究强调了建立促进公平、透明和公平分担风险的监管框架的必要性。它有助于将社会脆弱性纳入食品欺诈脆弱性概念,并倡导社会负责任的治理,优先考虑农业粮食系统内所有行为者的权利和抵御能力。
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引用次数: 0
The role of pesticides and fertilizers in Czech cereal output and TFP growth: A flexible production function with endogenous inputs 农药和化肥在捷克谷物产量和全要素生产率增长中的作用:具有内生投入的灵活生产函数
IF 6 1区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102955
Lukáš Čechura , Subal C. Kumbhakar , Zdeňka Žáková Kroupová
Through a comprehensive analysis of the effects of fertilizers and pesticides on both output and total factor productivity (TFP) growth, this study contributes to the discussion on the impacts of agrochemical use in sustainable cereal production systems. Using FADN data from Czech cereal farmers from 2008 to 2020, the study employs a flexible translog (TL) production function alongside a proxy-variable approach that treats pesticides and fertilizers as endogenous inputs. This approach generates robust results that strengthen the evidence base essential for data-driven agricultural policy formulation. The findings highlight the critical role of fertilizers and pesticides as key inputs driving both output and TFP growth. Simulations suggest that reducing these inputs would lead to a decline in agricultural output; however, this outcome is not inevitable. The study finds that technological advancements, which also serve as important drivers of both output and TFP growth, can mitigate potential declines in agricultural output, ensuring a more sustainable transition.
通过对化肥和农药对产量和全要素生产率(TFP)增长的影响的综合分析,本研究有助于讨论农用化学品对可持续谷物生产系统的影响。该研究利用捷克谷物农民2008年至2020年的FADN数据,采用灵活的超对数(TL)生产函数和代理变量方法,将农药和肥料视为内生投入。这种方法产生了强有力的结果,加强了数据驱动农业政策制定所必需的证据基础。研究结果强调了化肥和农药作为推动产出和全要素生产率增长的关键投入的关键作用。模拟表明,减少这些投入将导致农业产出下降;然而,这一结果并非不可避免。研究发现,技术进步也是产出和全要素生产率增长的重要驱动因素,可以缓解农业产出的潜在下降,确保实现更可持续的转型。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Food Policy
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