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Chapter Nine: Sub-Saharan Africa 第九章:撒哈拉以南非洲
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2022.2022935
France is reshaping its military posture in Africa but will retain its significant role in operations in the Sahel, as well as in security assistance more broadly. The long-running Barkhane operation will draw down, with emphasis instead on the special forces-focused Takuba mission which will feature significant French components as well as troops from European partners. Sweden took over command of Takuba, from France, in November 2021 and will command the mission until early 2022.
法国正在重塑其在非洲的军事姿态,但仍将在萨赫勒地区的行动以及更广泛的安全援助中发挥重要作用。长期执行的巴克哈内行动将被缩减,取而代之的是以特种部队为重点的Takuba任务,该任务将包括重要的法国组成部分以及来自欧洲伙伴的部队。瑞典于2021年11月从法国手中接管了Takuba的指挥权,并将指挥该任务直到2022年初。
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引用次数: 0
Chapter Five: Russia and Eurasia 第五章:俄罗斯与欧亚大陆
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2022.2022930
Russia’s core defence budget saw a mild nominal increase in 2021 but fell by 1.8% in real terms as the inflation rate reached 5.9%. Similarly, while total military expenditure is estimated to have reached RUB4.59 trillion (USD62.2 billion) in 2021, up from RUB4.46trn (USD61.6bn) the year before, this also constitutes a reduction in real terms of 5.2% down to USD55.7bn (constant 2015 USD). In late 2021, attention was again focused on Russia’s build-up of forces on the border with Ukraine and in Crimea. Russia’s April 2021 deployments in the same areas, under the pretext of conducting surprise exercises, involved between 25% and 33% of Russia’s total deployable ground forces. The November buildup again highlighted not just the resources Moscow could mobilise as part of its deployments, but also the supporting civilian – as well as military – infrastructure that enabled it to do so. Against the background of the continuing delay in developing and delivering armoured vehicles based on the new Armata, Kurganets-25 and Bumerang platforms, the MoD continues to modernise the current armouredvehicle fleet. The MoD signed an additional contract for an undeclared quantity of T-90M main battle tanks; some of these will be again upgraded from T-90As. There was particular attention on the Airborne Forces (VDV) in exercise Zapad 2021. For the first time, the VDV practised a full battalion landing with BMD-4M airborne combat vehicles. During the same exercise a full battalion also carried out a night airborne assault. The navy continued testing sea-launched 3M22 Tsirkon hypersonic missiles, including the first surface and submerged firings from a submarine, the Yasen (Project 885) vessel Severodvinsk, in October. The first serial-production Tsirkon weapons are scheduled to go into service in 2022. The Aerospace Forces has begun taking delivery of the first of up to 24 upgraded Su-34 Fullback bombers, which include a broader set of weapons and the ability to be fitted with expanded weapons and reconnaissance pods. The first aircraft are assigned to the 2nd Regiment at Chelyabinsk in the Central Military District, with the type likely replacing the Su-24MR Fencer E.
俄罗斯的核心国防预算在2021年名义上略有增长,但由于通货膨胀率达到5.9%,实际下降1.8%。同样,虽然2021年的总军费预计将达到4.59万亿卢布(622亿美元),高于前一年的4.46万亿卢布(616亿美元),但这也构成了实际减少5.2%,降至557亿美元(2015年不变美元)。2021年底,人们的注意力再次集中在俄罗斯在乌克兰边境和克里米亚的军力集结上。俄罗斯2021年4月在同一地区的部署,以进行突击演习为借口,涉及俄罗斯可部署地面部队总数的25%至33%。11月的军事集结再次突显出,莫斯科不仅可以调动资源作为其部署的一部分,而且还可以调动支持它这样做的民用(以及军用)基础设施。在开发和交付基于新型“阿玛塔”、“库尔干涅茨-25”和“Bumerang”平台的装甲车持续延迟的背景下,英国国防部继续对当前的装甲车队进行现代化改造。国防部还签署了一份额外合同,购买数量不详的T-90M主战坦克;其中一些将再次从t - 90a升级。在“西方- 2021”演习中,空降部队(VDV)受到了特别关注。这是VDV第一次用BMD-4M空降战车进行全营登陆训练。在同一次演习中,一个营还进行了一次夜间空降袭击。海军继续测试海上发射的3M22“sirkon”高超音速导弹,包括在10月从潜艇“Yasen”(885项目)“Severodvinsk”号进行的首次水面和水下发射。第一批批量生产的“长江”武器计划在2022年服役。航空航天部队已经开始接收首批24架升级版苏-34“后卫”轰炸机,其中包括一套更广泛的武器,以及安装扩展武器和侦察吊舱的能力。第一架飞机被分配到中央军区车里雅宾斯克的第二团,该类型可能取代苏- 24mr击剑者E。
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引用次数: 0
Chapter Six: Asia 第六章:亚洲
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2022.2022931
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引用次数: 1
Index of countries and territories 国家和地区索引
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2022.2022941
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引用次数: 0
Chapter One: Domain trends 第一章:领域趋势
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2022.2022926
„ Global defence expenditure reached USD1.92 billion in 2021, 3.4% higher than 2020 levels. However, surging inflation in all regions meant this amounted to a 1.8% reduction in real terms. If inflation continues to increase, this will put pressure on defence budgets as factor-input costs increase, while military personnel may call for higher wages to keep pace with cost-of-living increases. „ In 2020, the United States was the primary driver of global defence-spending growth. However, US defence-budget authority fell to USD754bn in 2021, from USD775bn in 2020. Inflation rose from 3.1% to 6.4% in 2021, which meant that the budget contracted by 6% in real terms. „ High inflation rates also resulted in real spending contractions in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and Russia and Eurasia, even though nominal increases were evident across most regions. In real terms, Latin American spending is at the same level as in 2009. Meanwhile, economic constraints in sub-Saharan Africa have continued to subdue defence expenditure. In real terms, the region’s spending in 2021 is the same as it was in 2012. „ Middle Eastern regional defence spending has been relatively stable in nominal terms, but with rates of inflation averaging 6.9% annually (and in some countries exceeding 30%), there have been sizeable real-terms reductions, with cuts averaging 3.6% annually in the four years to 2021.
2021年全球国防开支达到19.2亿美元,比2020年水平高出3.4%。然而,所有地区飙升的通胀意味着,按实际价值计算,这相当于减少了1.8%。如果通货膨胀继续增加,这将对国防预算造成压力,因为要素投入成本增加,而军事人员可能要求提高工资,以跟上生活费用的增长。2020年,美国是全球国防开支增长的主要推动力。然而,美国国防预算授权从2020年的7750亿美元降至2021年的7540亿美元。2021年,通货膨胀率从3.1%上升到6.4%,这意味着实际预算收缩了6%。高通胀率还导致拉丁美洲、撒哈拉以南非洲、中东和北非、俄罗斯和欧亚大陆的实际支出萎缩,尽管大多数地区的名义支出明显增长。按实际价值计算,拉丁美洲的支出与2009年持平。同时,撒哈拉以南非洲的经济限制继续抑制国防开支。按实际价值计算,该地区2021年的支出与2012年相同。中东地区的国防开支名义上相对稳定,但由于通货膨胀率平均每年为6.9%(有些国家超过30%),实际开支大幅减少,到2021年的四年平均每年削减3.6%。
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引用次数: 0
Chapter Three: North America 第三章:北美
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2022.2022928
While the US defence budget’s USD715 billion top line constitutes an USD11.27bn increase on the enacted FY2021 US defence budget, the FY2022 budget request is essentially flat in real terms when adjusted for inflation. Reflecting the Pentagon’s focus on the Indo-Pacific, the air force and navy budgets are set to increase, making up 52% of the top-line DoD budget in FY2022, up from 48% in the enacted FY21 budget. The US conducted its Global Posture Review during 2021. The Review was anticipated to reshape global United States military deployments, likely heralding reductions in all regions bar Europe and the IndoPacific, where there were to be increased infrastructure developments with a focus on survivability. The US army is recapitalising its mobile air defence. The first prototype M-SHORAD Increment 1 vehicles arrived in Germany in early 2021. Meanwhile, M-SHORAD Increment 2 is a directed-energy variant. Another project, the Indirect Fire Protection Capability (IFPC) Increment 2, is designed to tackle threats including from uninhabited aerial systems and cruise missiles. While uncertainty remains over plans to increase the size of the US navy’s fleet, there has been consistent focus on an eventual fleet that is more distributed, with a shift in balance to smaller surface combatants and with significant numbers of uninhabited surface and underwater vehicles. The US air force’s stated acquisition target of 1,763 F-35As is coming under scrutiny. F-15EX Eagle IIs are being bought to replace F-15Cs, and there was talk of restarting F-16 acquisition or even building a new successor. Meanwhile, a demonstrator for elements of the Next-Generation Air Dominance programme reportedly flew in 2021. In September, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall said that five B-21 bombers were in various states of production. Air transport and air refuelling remain essential to US expeditionary operations, as the evacuation from Afghanistan showed. This also highlighted the importance of overseas bases for logistical support. There are as yet no identified replacements for the C-17 or C-5M; a C-17 sustainment contract was awarded in late 2021. Canada and the US are building more icebreakers. Three new heavy icebreakers are being procured for the US Coast Guard, to be followed by three medium icebreakers. In June 2021, the Royal Canadian Navy commissioned the first of its six planned Harry DeWolfclass Arctic Offshore Patrol Ships.
虽然美国国防预算的7150亿美元的顶线构成了2021财年美国国防预算的112.7亿美元的增长,但经通货膨胀调整后,2022财年预算申请的实际价值基本持平。空军和海军预算将增加,占国防部2022财年预算的52%,高于21财年预算的48%,这反映了五角大楼对印太地区的关注。美国在2021年进行了全球态势评估。《评估报告》预计将重塑美国在全球的军事部署,可能预示着除欧洲和印太地区以外的所有地区的军事部署都将减少,这些地区将增加基础设施的发展,重点是生存能力。美国陆军正在对其机动防空系统进行资本重组。第一辆M-SHORAD增量1型原型车于2021年初抵达德国。同时,M-SHORAD增量2是一种定向能变体。另一个项目是间接火力防护能力(IFPC)增量2,旨在应对包括无人空中系统和巡航导弹在内的威胁。尽管增加美国海军舰队规模的计划仍存在不确定性,但人们一直关注的是,最终的舰队将更加分散,在平衡上转向较小的水面战斗舰艇,并配备大量无人居住的水面和水下航行器。美国空军宣称的1763架f - 35a的采购目标正在受到审查。购买F-15EX鹰ii是为了取代f - 15c,而且有传言说要重新采购F-16,甚至建造新的继任者。与此同时,据报道,下一代空中优势项目的一架演示机于2021年试飞。9月,空军部长弗兰克·肯德尔(Frank Kendall)表示,5架B-21轰炸机处于不同的生产状态。正如从阿富汗撤离所显示的那样,航空运输和空中加油对美国的远征行动仍然至关重要。这也突出了海外基地对后勤支援的重要性。目前还没有确定C-17或C-5M的替代品;2021年底授予了一份C-17维护合同。加拿大和美国正在建造更多的破冰船。美国海岸警卫队正在采购三艘新的重型破冰船,随后将采购三艘中型破冰船。2021年6月,加拿大皇家海军服役了其计划中的六艘哈里·德沃尔夫级北极近海巡逻舰中的第一艘。
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引用次数: 0
Explanatory notes 注解
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2022.2022937
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引用次数: 0
Chapter Seven: Middle East and North Africa 第七章:中东和北非
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2022.2022932
„ Regional defence spending declined in real terms for the fourth consecutive year. While spending is the same as in 2017, in nominal terms, inflation rates averaging 6.9% annually mean that real-terms reductions have been sizeable, with cuts averaging 3.6% annually in the four years to 2021. „ The US Global Posture Review was expected to set out Washington’s thinking on its future dispositions in the region, though little change was announced on release and the review called for further study of regional requirements. „ In July 2021, the US announced that its combat mission in Iraq would come to a close by the end of the year, though some US forces would continue to operate in an advisory role. NATO had earlier announced that it was expanding its NATO Mission Iraq. „ The Abraham Accords normalised relations between Israel, Bahrain and the UAE, presaged increased security and defence cooperation and appeared to unlock important arms deals. In January, letters of agreement were signed concerning a proposed UAE purchase of F-35A Lightning II combat aircraft. There have been bilateral meetings between defence officials and, in November, a small maritime-security exercise in the Red Sea involving the US and the three states. „ There is growing defence cooperation with extraregional states. Cyprus, France, Greece, Israel and the UAE increased diplomatic coordination and took part in the Iniochos air exercise in April. In late year France secured a major sale of 80 Rafale combat aircraft to the UAE. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have also sent combat aircraft to Greece to take part in exercises. „ Egypt’s naval capabilities are growing. In 2021 a new naval base was opened at Ras Gargoub, while a fourth Type-209/1400 submarine and a second FREMM frigate (built by Italy’s Fincantieri) was commissioned. In October it was announced that Egypt would buy the UK’s two decommissioned Fort Rosalie-class logistics ships.
“按实际价值计算,地区国防开支连续第四年下降。虽然支出与2017年相同,但按名义价值计算,平均每年6.9%的通胀率意味着实际削减幅度相当大,到2021年的四年内平均每年削减3.6%。《美国全球态势评估报告》(US Global Posture Review)预计将阐述华盛顿对其未来在该地区部署的想法,不过报告发布时几乎没有宣布什么变化,报告呼吁进一步研究该地区的需求。2021年7月,美国宣布其在伊拉克的作战任务将于年底结束,尽管一些美军将继续以顾问的身份行动。北约早些时候宣布将扩大在伊拉克的北约任务。《亚伯拉罕协议》使以色列、巴林和阿联酋之间的关系正常化,预示着安全和防务合作的加强,并似乎开启了重要的武器交易。今年1月,双方签署了关于阿联酋购买F-35A闪电II战斗机的协议。防务官员之间举行了双边会议,去年11月,美国和这三个国家在红海举行了一次小型海上安全演习。与区域外国家的防务合作日益加强。塞浦路斯、法国、希腊、以色列和阿联酋加强了外交协调,并参加了4月份的伊诺霍斯(Iniochos)空中演习。去年年底,法国向阿联酋出售了80架阵风战斗机。阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯也派出战斗机前往希腊参加演习。埃及的海军实力正在增强。2021年在Ras Gargoub开设一个新的海军基地,同时第四艘209/1400型潜艇和第二艘FREMM护卫舰(由意大利Fincantieri建造)服役。去年10月,埃及宣布将购买英国两艘退役的“罗莎利堡”级后勤舰。
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引用次数: 0
Chapter Two: Defence and military analysis 第二章:国防与军事分析
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2022.2022927
value will be questioned and it may be sidelined and have its level of funding reviewed (perhaps under the guise of an administrative reorganisation). At any time, but perhaps more so today than before, such organisations are faced with competing sources of information, ranging from domestic and foreign newspapers, magazines and journals and the output of think tanks to personal contacts, special advisers and meetings with foreign leaders. Accordingly, it may be tempting for ministers, senior civilian officials and military officers to question what extra value their intelligence organisation can offer. However, ‘open source’ (often referred to as ‘publicly available’) information is nothing new. At the turn of the nineteenth century, Vice Admiral Nelson’s multilingual chaplain, and effectively his intelligence officer, would go through and summarise foreign newspapers and pamphlets. More recently, in the UK, a key conclusion of the Franks Report on the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands in 1982 focused on open-source material:
它的价值将受到质疑,它可能会被边缘化,其资金水平将受到审查(也许是在行政重组的幌子下)。在任何时候,这些组织都面临着信息来源的竞争,从国内外报纸、杂志和期刊,到智库的成果,再到个人接触、特别顾问和与外国领导人的会晤,这一点或许比以往更加突出。因此,对于部长、高级文职官员和军官来说,他们可能很容易质疑自己的情报机构能提供什么额外价值。然而,“开源”(通常被称为“公开可用”)信息并不是什么新鲜事。在19世纪初,海军中将纳尔逊的多语种牧师,实际上是他的情报官员,会浏览和总结外国报纸和小册子。最近,在英国,关于1982年阿根廷入侵福克兰群岛的弗兰克报告的一个关键结论集中在开源材料上:
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引用次数: 0
Index of country/territory abbreviations 国家/地区缩写索引
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2022.2022940
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Military Balance
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