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Explanatory notes 注解
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-07-30 DOI: 10.18356/09beaaed-en
Line 2.—Merchandise
This account measures all movable goods that are sold, given away, or otherwise transferred from U.S. to foreign ownership. Excluded are: (1) Transfers of goods under U.S. military agency sales contracts, whether physically exported from the United States or sold from U.S. installations abroad (part of line 3); (2) transfers of goods by U.S. nonmilitary agencies from U.S. installations abroad (part of line 10); and (3) transfers of goods under U.S. military grant programs (part of line 16). The basic data are Census Bureau trade statistics. Exports in the Census Bureau statistics are,.in general, valued f.a.s. (free alongside ship) U.S. port of export and reflect selling price, f.o.b. (free on board) interior point of shipment (or cost if not sold), plus packaging costs, inland freight, and insurance to place of export. These statistics record the physical movement of goods out of the United States, rather than change of ownership, and differ in other aspects from the definition of merchandise exports stated above. Adjustments to the Census Bureau statistics are also made for timing, coverage, and valuation in order to bring them more into conformity with concepts used in the international accounts. Timing adjustments are made to Census Bureau statistics for transfers that occur in periods other than the periods in which they are reported. Coverage adjustments are made for Virgin Islands exports to foreign countries, gift parcel post exports, electrical energy exports to Canada and Mexico, sales of vessels, U.S. exports to the Panama Canal Zone,
这个账户衡量的是出售、赠送或以其他方式从美国转移到外国所有权的所有动产。不包括:(1)根据美国军事机构销售合同转让的货物,无论是从美国实际出口还是从美国海外设施销售(第3条的一部分);(2)美国非军事机构从美国海外设施转移货物(第10行的一部分);(3)美国军事赠款项目下的货物转移(第16行)。基本数据是人口普查局的贸易统计数据。人口普查局统计的出口是。一般来说,美国出口港的fob价(船边交货)和反映的销售价格,f.o.b价(船上交货)国内装运点(或未售出的成本),加上包装成本、内陆运费和到出口地的保险。这些统计数据记录的是美国货物的实际流动,而不是所有权的变化,在其他方面与上述商品出口的定义不同。人口普查局的统计数据也在时间、覆盖范围和估值方面进行了调整,以便使它们更符合国际账户中使用的概念。人口普查局对发生在报告期间以外时期的转移进行了时间调整。对维尔京群岛出口到国外、礼品包裹邮政出口、向加拿大和墨西哥出口电力、船舶销售、美国向巴拿马运河区出口、
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引用次数: 0
Chapter Six: Asia 第六章:亚洲
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2018.1416982
China and member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations agreed a framework for a code of conduct in the area, in May 2017. The reality, however, was that Beijing further strengthened its military bases in the South China Sea, on the features it had physically expanded after 2012. At the same time, it continued to engage in coercive behaviour there. For the Chinese Communist Party and the PLA, securing greater control of South China Sea features and surrounding waters was evidently a strategic priority, despite the unease that Beijing’s actions were creating in Southeast Asia and beyond. In July, following Hanoi’s refusal to yield to Chinese demands to halt drilling by a Spanish oil company on Vanguard Bank, an area that Vietnam claimed was within its exclusive economic zone, Beijing reportedly threatened to use force against a Vietnamese-occupied feature. In August, China deployed a flotilla of fishing vessels, accompanied by PLAN and coastguard ships, close to Pagasa, the largest feature occupied by the Philippines in the Spratly Islands. While Southeast Asian governments emphasised the importance of diplomacy in managing regional maritime tensions, in these circumstances several states have continued their efforts to develop military capabilities that could help to deter potential future Chinese aggression. In February, Vietnam commissioned the last two of six Project 636.1 (improved Kilo-class) submarines supplied by Russia. At the commissioning ceremony, Prime Minister Nguyễn Xuân Phúc praised the Vietnamese Navy’s willingness to defend ‘every inch’ of national territory including territorial waters. Later in the year, Vietnam received a third Russian Gepard 3.9-class frigate, with another due by year’s end. Reflecting Hanoi’s increasing sense of vulnerability to Chinese pressure, Minister of National Defence Ngo Xuan Lich visited Washington DC in August, where he met US Secretary of Defense James Mattis; the two sides reached an agreement on increased bilateral naval engagement and information-sharing, and more importantly that a US aircraft carrier would visit Vietnam during 2018, the first such visit since the Vietnamese communists’ victory in 1975. In the Asia-Pacific region, the influences on defence policy, military spending and equipment procurement, and on the development of armed forces’ capabilities, were as wide-ranging as ever in 2017. However, the most important were pervasive and persistent insecurity; economic circumstances that allowed for a relatively high – and in some cases increasing – allocation of national resources to the armed forces; and domestic political circumstances, which often helped to support ambitious defence programmes. The most important factors driving the region’s sense of insecurity were evident at the 16th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue. In June 2017, this annual event again brought together in Singapore defence ministers and other senior representatives of AsiaPacific defence establishments. Se
2017年5月,中国和东南亚国家联盟成员国就该地区的行为准则框架达成一致。然而,现实情况是,北京进一步加强了其在南中国海的军事基地,这些基地是在2012年之后中国实际扩张的岛礁上建立的。与此同时,它继续在那里采取胁迫行为。对于中国共产党和人民解放军来说,确保对南中国海特征和周围水域的更大控制显然是一个战略重点,尽管北京的行动在东南亚和其他地区造成了不安。今年7月,在河内拒绝屈从中国要求,停止一家西班牙石油公司在先锋滩(Vanguard Bank)钻探之后,据报道,北京方面威胁要对越南占领的一个地物使用武力。先锋滩是越南声称属于其专属经济区的区域。今年8月,中国在海军和海警船的陪同下部署了一支渔船船队,靠近菲律宾在南沙群岛(Spratly Islands,中国称南沙群岛)占据的最大岛礁Pagasa。虽然东南亚各国政府强调外交在管理地区海上紧张局势中的重要性,但在这种情况下,一些国家仍在继续努力发展军事能力,以帮助遏制中国未来潜在的侵略。2月,越南服役了俄罗斯提供的6艘636.1型(基洛级改进型)潜艇中的最后两艘。在下水仪式上,越南总理Nguyễn xun Phúc赞扬了越南海军捍卫包括领海在内的“每一寸”国家领土的意愿。今年晚些时候,越南接收了第三艘俄罗斯“格帕德”3.9级护卫舰,另一艘将在年底前交付。越南国防部长吴春历8月访问华盛顿,会见了美国国防部长詹姆斯·马蒂斯,这反映出河内对中国压力的脆弱感日益增强;双方就加强双边海军接触和信息共享达成一致,更重要的是,美国航空母舰将于2018年访问越南,这是自1975年越南共产党取得胜利以来首次访问越南。在亚太地区,2017年对国防政策、军费开支和装备采购以及武装部队能力发展的影响一如既往地广泛。然而,最重要的是普遍和持续的不安全感;允许向武装部队拨出相对较高- -在某些情况下还在增加- -的国家资源的经济环境;国内的政治环境往往有助于支持雄心勃勃的国防计划。导致该地区不安全感的最重要因素在第16届国际战略研究所香格里拉对话中得到了体现。2017年6月,这一年度活动再次聚集了新加坡的国防部长和亚太国防机构的其他高级代表。中国作为亚太地区及其他地区的主要战略参与者的崛起所带来的安全后果引起了严重的担忧,这与过去五年一样明显——特别是在其海上自信和中国人民解放军海军(PLAN)在该地区水域日益增长的存在方面。与此同时,澳大利亚、日本、韩国和其他地区国家有充分的理由将朝鲜加速发展核武器和远程导弹视为严重威胁。此外,一些东南亚国家的国防部长和军事首长认为,圣战恐怖主义是一个日益重要的挑战,尤其是在伊斯兰国(又称ISIS或ISIL)在中东失去领土、其武装人员分散到东南亚的风险增加的情况下。对该地区国家来说,一个新的担忧是特朗普政府带来的不确定性,特朗普政府似乎质疑美国盟友的重要性,而且似乎对该地区没有明确的战略。
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引用次数: 5
Chapter Nine: Sub-Saharan Africa 第九章:撒哈拉以南非洲
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2018.1416986
Conflict and instability across parts of sub-Saharan Africa still constitute significant challenges to regional governments. A problem for regional states is that the requirement to deal with current threats risks absorbing the attention of defence establishments, possibly forestalling the defence-reform processes that might make responses to continental security threats more efficient. International involvement in these reform processes is important in terms of funding and organisational support. Meanwhile, the fact that some of the continent’s security challenges are transnational in cause and effect means that international attention remains focused on the continent. This focus is not just in terms of generating diplomatic support and helping to enable conflict and dispute resolution; it involves continuing material assistance to African nations and regional multilateral institutions, as they look to develop domestic capacity to tackle these crises. The move to develop such local capacity has been under way for some time, driven in large part by regional states and organisations such as the African Union (AU). However, defence spending across the region declined in real terms between 2016 and 2017. The risk is that this downward trend could affect more than just the money available for reforms and modernisation plans. Given the draws on government finances required by other sectors, and in light of the greater activism that some states have demonstrated in recent years, it could also affect their broader will and capacity to act.
撒哈拉以南非洲部分地区的冲突和不稳定仍然对地区政府构成重大挑战。该地区国家面临的一个问题是,应对当前威胁的要求可能会吸引国防机构的注意力,可能会阻碍国防改革进程,而国防改革进程可能会提高对大陆安全威胁的反应效率。在资金和组织支助方面,国际社会参与这些改革进程是重要的。与此同时,非洲大陆的一些安全挑战具有跨国的因果关系,这意味着国际社会的注意力仍然集中在非洲大陆。这一重点不仅在于产生外交支持和帮助解决冲突和争端;它包括继续向非洲国家和区域多边机构提供物质援助,帮助它们发展应对这些危机的国内能力。发展这种地方能力的行动已经进行了一段时间,这在很大程度上是由地区国家和非洲联盟(AU)等组织推动的。然而,2016年至2017年期间,该地区的实际国防开支有所下降。风险在于,这种下行趋势可能影响的不仅仅是用于改革和现代化计划的资金。考虑到其他行业需要动用政府资金,以及近年来一些州表现出的更大的行动主义,这也可能影响到它们采取行动的更广泛的意愿和能力。
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引用次数: 2
Explanatory Notes 注解
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2018.1416989
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引用次数: 0
Chapter Three: North America 第三章:北美
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2018.1416979
On 20 January 2017, Donald Trump became the 45th President of the United States. The administration quickly moved to take action on the issues Trump had emphasised in his campaign, including tackling perceived disparities over burden-sharing within the transatlantic alliance. In the campaign, Trump had questioned the relevance of NATO. During a May 2017 speech in Brussels, the president returned to the theme, chiding the Alliance’s European members for not spending enough on defence. Meanwhile, issues including ongoing investigations into ties with Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign, White House staff turnover, and delays in naming senior and mid-level national-security officials all played a part in a troubled start for the administration. That said, some coherence in national-security policy had begun to emerge by late August. In addition to Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the shuffling of key players (Lt.-Gen. H.R. McMaster for Michael Flynn as National Security Advisor; John F. Kelly for Reince Priebus as White House Chief of Staff) provided for experienced advice regarding national-security priorities and introduced greater process into the administration’s national-security decision-making. Nonetheless, the president’s proclivity to comment on policy matters on social media, at times contradicting existing policy (such as on the issue of transgender service members), played a part in unsettling his own appointees, not to mention allies and partners. In addition, key positions in the departments of defense and state (and elsewhere) were only slowly being filled, with the result that career civil servants, and military officers in the case of the Department of Defense (DoD), still occupied many of these posts. Although debates within the administration persist regarding what should be expected of the United States’ allies, Trump has moderated his criticism and increasingly adopted policies similar to those of past administrations. The European Reassurance Initiative continues, with a funding increase under the Fiscal Year (FY) 2018 budget, and in June 2017 Trump delivered a speech in Warsaw assuring Poland of US support. A key milestone came on 21 August 2017, when the president announced his decision to send additional troops to Afghanistan, although their role in the country is expected to be less expansive than in the past: ‘We are not nation building again’, said Trump, ‘we are killing terrorists’. Afghanistan is only one of the security challenges facing the US, its allies and partners. As Mattis noted in his testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee in June 2017, these fall into four main areas: ‘filling in the holes from trade-offs made during 16 years of war ... the worsening security environment, contested operations in multiple domains, and the rapid pace of technological change’. Mattis also stressed that it is a ‘more volatile security environment than any I have experie
2017年1月20日,唐纳德·特朗普成为美国第45任总统。奥巴马政府迅速就特朗普在竞选中强调的问题采取行动,包括解决跨大西洋联盟内部在负担分担方面的明显差异。在竞选期间,特朗普曾质疑北约的重要性。2017年5月,在布鲁塞尔的一次演讲中,总统回到了这个主题,指责北约的欧洲成员国在国防上的支出不够。与此同时,包括2016年总统竞选期间正在进行的对美俄关系的调查、白宫工作人员的更替以及推迟任命高级和中级国家安全官员在内的问题,都是特朗普政府开局不顺的原因之一。也就是说,到8月下旬,国家安全政策的一致性已经开始显现。除了国防部长詹姆斯·马蒂斯(James Mattis)和国务卿雷克斯·蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson),关键人物(中将)的洗牌。h·r·麦克马斯特提名迈克尔·弗林担任国家安全顾问;约翰·f·凯利(John F. Kelly)为雷恩斯·普利巴斯(Reince Priebus)担任白宫幕僚长提供了有关国家安全优先事项的经验丰富的建议,并为政府的国家安全决策引入了更大的流程。尽管如此,总统倾向于在社交媒体上评论政策问题,有时与现有政策相矛盾(比如在跨性别军人问题上),这在一定程度上让他自己任命的官员感到不安,更不用说盟友和合作伙伴了。此外,国防部和国务院(以及其他部门)的关键职位的填补速度很慢,结果是职业公务员和国防部(DoD)的军官仍然占据着许多这些职位。尽管特朗普政府内部仍在就对美国盟友的期望进行辩论,但特朗普已经缓和了批评,并越来越多地采取与往届政府类似的政策。“欧洲再保证倡议”(European Reassurance Initiative)仍在继续,2018财年预算增加了资金。2017年6月,特朗普在华沙发表讲话,向波兰保证美国的支持。2017年8月21日是一个关键的里程碑,当时总统宣布他决定向阿富汗派遣更多的军队,尽管他们在该国的作用预计不会像过去那样广泛:“我们不是在重建国家,”特朗普说,“我们是在杀死恐怖分子。”阿富汗只是美国及其盟友和伙伴面临的安全挑战之一。正如马蒂斯2017年6月在参议院军事委员会作证时所指出的那样,这些措施主要分为四个方面:“填补16年战争期间做出的权衡所带来的漏洞……日益恶化的安全环境,多领域的竞争行动,以及技术变革的快速步伐。马蒂斯还强调,这是一个“比我40年服役期间经历的任何安全环境都更不稳定的环境”。
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引用次数: 1
Chapter Seven: Middle East and North Africa 第七章:中东和北非
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2018.1416983
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引用次数: 2
Chapter Two: Comparative defence statistics 第二章:国防统计比较
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2018.1416969
a Under NATO defence-spending de nition; b Includes US Foreign Military Assistance Note: US dollar totals are calculated using average market exchange rates for 2017, derived using IMF data. The relative position of countries will vary not only as a result of actual adjustments in defence-spending levels, but also due to exchange-rate žuctuations between domestic currencies and the US dollar. The use of average exchange rates reduces these žuctuations, but the effects of such movements can be signi cant in a number of cases.
a根据北约国防开支定义;b包括美国对外军事援助注:美元总额采用2017年平均市场汇率计算,采用国际货币基金组织数据推导。各国的相对地位不仅会因国防开支水平的实际调整而变化,还会因本国货币与美元之间的汇率波动而变化。使用平均汇率可以减少这些波动,但在许多情况下,这种波动的影响可能是显著的。
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引用次数: 3
List of abbreviations for data sections 数据节的缩写列表
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2018.1416990
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引用次数: 0
Chapter Ten: Country comparisons and defence data 第十章:国家比较和国防数据
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2018.1416987
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引用次数: 2
Chapter One: Chinese and Russian air-launched weapons: a test for Western air dominance 第一章:中国和俄罗斯空射武器:对西方制空权的考验
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2018.1416966
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引用次数: 1
期刊
The Military Balance
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