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Short-term electricity grid maximum demand forecasting with the ARIMAX-SVR Machine Learning Hybrid Model 基于ARIMAX-SVR机器学习混合模型的短期电网最大需求预测
Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-04-15 DOI: 10.33430/V28N1THIE-2020-0005
H. F. Chow
This paper proposes and discusses the viability of a short-term grid maximum demand forecasting model combining autoregressive integrated moving average with regressors (ARIMAX) and support vector regression (SVR). Grid demand forecasting is essential to generation unit scheduling, maintenance planning and system security. Traditionally, grid demand is forecasted using multivariate linear regression models with parameters adjusted to past data. A disadvantage of the linear regression model is that the parameters require regular adjustment, otherwise the prediction accuracy will deteriorate over time. With recent advances in the field of machine learning and lower computational costs, the usage of machine learning in the power industry becomes increasingly practicable. The proposed model is a machine learning model that combines ARIMAX and SVR to exploit their respective effectiveness in predicting linear and non-linear data. In contrast to linear regression models, the machine learning model automatically updates itself when new data is included. The hybrid model is benchmarked against other forecasting models and demonstrated a marked improvement in accuracy, achieving RMSE of 67.7MW and MAPE of 1.32% in a seven-day forecast.
本文提出并讨论了一种结合自回归综合移动平均与回归(ARIMAX)和支持向量回归(SVR)的短期电网最大需求预测模型的可行性。电网需求预测对发电机组调度、维护计划和系统安全至关重要。传统上,电网需求是使用多变量线性回归模型预测的,参数根据过去的数据进行调整。线性回归模型的缺点是参数需要定期调整,否则预测精度将随着时间的推移而恶化。随着机器学习领域的最新进展和计算成本的降低,机器学习在电力行业的应用变得越来越可行。所提出的模型是一种结合ARIMAX和SVR的机器学习模型,以利用它们在预测线性和非线性数据方面的各自有效性。与线性回归模型相比,当包含新数据时,机器学习模型会自动更新自己。该混合模型与其他预测模型进行了对比,并证明了其准确性的显著提高,在七天的预测中实现了67.7MW的RMSE和1.32%的MAPE。
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引用次数: 0
Development of prototype machine brake and car safety gear testers for traction lift systems 牵引提升系统原型机制动器和汽车安全装置测试仪的开发
Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-04-15 DOI: 10.33430/V28N1THIE-2020-0044
A. So, K. Lam, A. C. T. Kong, Jeff H. Tse
Machine brakes and safety gears of traction lifts are two critical components of the biggest safety concerns, as the main braking system and redundant fail-safe mechanism respectively stop and hold lift cars from unintended car movement, overspeed or under a free-fall condition during emergency. There are challenges of routine maintenance on how to continually verify the effectiveness of them to mitigate risk potentials of equipment failure. This pilot study intends to design, implement and test low-cost, non-intrusive and on-line prototype testers with the aid of sensors for real-time monitoring of critical parameters of these safety devices. Critical parameters that are measurable include real-time variations of brake lining temperature, brake solenoid current, vibrational patterns of brake arms and lift car, position of lift car, and the actuating status of safety gears. Critical parameters after processing include a newly defined energy of brake arm operation and estimated deceleration rate of a fully loaded car by safety gears operation on an unloaded car. Early signs of abnormalities of these two safety devices can be detected before they fail. Additionally, the prototype testers can facilitate more frequent unloaded full-speed testing of safety gears to verify the effectiveness. The proof-of-concept prototype could be a quick monitoring alternative to existing and new traction lift systems.
牵引式升降机的机器制动器和安全装置是两个最重要的安全问题,因为主制动系统和冗余故障安全机构分别在紧急情况下阻止和控制升降机的车辆意外移动,超速或自由落体。如何持续验证其有效性以降低设备故障的潜在风险是日常维护的挑战。这项试点研究旨在设计、实施和测试低成本、非侵入式和在线的原型测试器,并借助传感器实时监测这些安全装置的关键参数。可测量的关键参数包括制动衬里温度的实时变化、制动电磁电流、制动臂和提升车的振动模式、提升车的位置以及安全齿轮的驱动状态。处理后的关键参数包括新定义的制动臂操作能量和通过安全齿轮在空载汽车上操作估计的满载汽车减速率。这两种安全装置的早期异常迹象可以在它们失效之前检测到。此外,原型测试器可以促进更频繁的卸载全速测试安全齿轮,以验证有效性。概念验证原型可能是现有和新的牵引升降机系统的快速监测替代方案。
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引用次数: 0
Using market mechanism to stimulate sustainable use of the non-renewable environmental resource (groundwater) in Barind Tract of Bangladesh 利用市场机制刺激孟加拉国巴林德地区不可再生环境资源(地下水)的可持续利用
Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-04-15 DOI: 10.33430/V28N1THIE-2020-0036
Anutosh Das, S. Kashem, M. Hasan
Agriculture, the main economic driver of Barind Tract, is highly dependent on groundwater for surface water paucity in the area. Notwithstanding, farmers use water capriciously due to its low price that makes a substantial drop in the water table. In this context, the research attempts to determine a market-based water pricing mechanism to encourage an optimal use of the scarce non-renewable resource. Required data was collected by questionnaire survey, Focus Group Discussion (FGD), Contingent Valuation Method, expert-opinion survey and subsequent literature works. The results reveal that depletion level has arrived at 20, 11, 7.5 feet in high, mid and low tract respectively over the last 22 years, which results in a number of economic-environmental externalities in the area. The research monetarily evaluated the cost of externalities and incorporated it with the marginal cost of extraction to increase efficiency of an existing pricing system. Regarding human reaction to price elasticity, the new price can be a reliable attempt to reduce an overconsumption pattern of water. Quantity of consumed water can be reduced to 14190.4 m3, 17759.59 m3 and 38510.6 m3 in a year in high, mid and low tract area respectively with its implementation. The research will serve as an initiative to conserve the valuable groundwater resource for future generations by managing consumer practice.
农业是巴林德地区的主要经济驱动力,由于该地区地表水缺乏,农业高度依赖地下水。尽管如此,由于水价低,导致地下水位大幅下降,农民们随意用水。在此背景下,本研究试图确定以市场为基础的水价机制,以鼓励对稀缺的不可再生资源的最佳利用。通过问卷调查、焦点小组讨论(Focus Group Discussion, FGD)、条件评估法(Contingent Valuation Method)、专家意见调查和后续的文献工作收集所需数据。结果表明,在过去的22年中,高、中、低流域的枯竭水平分别达到了20、11、7.5英尺,这导致了该地区的一些经济环境外部性。这项研究从货币上评价了外部性的成本,并将其与开采的边际成本结合起来,以提高现有定价制度的效率。就人类对价格弹性的反应而言,新价格可能是减少过度用水模式的可靠尝试。实施后,高、中、低流域年用水量分别减少14190.4 m3、17759.59 m3、38510.6 m3。这项研究将作为一项倡议,通过管理消费者的做法,为子孙后代保护宝贵的地下水资源。
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引用次数: 1
Plantar fascia loading at different running speed: a dynamic finite element model prediction 不同运行速度下足底筋膜负荷的动态有限元模型预测
Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-04-15 DOI: 10.33430/V28N1THIE-2020-0011
T. L. Chen, D. Wong, Yan Wang, Ming Zhang
Loads on the plantar fascia could be influenced by running speed and relate to its pathology. This study calculated and compared plantar fascia strains under different running speed conditions using a dynamic finite element foot model and computational simulations. The model was previously validated featuring twenty bones, bulk soft tissue, muscles/ligaments, and a solid part of plantar fascia. A runner performed running trials under one preferred speed (PS), two lower (PS - 10% and PS - 20%) and two higher (PS + 10% and PS + 20%) speed conditions. The movement data were processed to drive musculoskeletal modelling and calculated boundary/loading conditions for the subsequent finite element analyses. The results show that peak strains of the plantar fascia increased with increasing running speed. From PS – 20% to PS + 20%, peak strain in the proximal and distal fascia regions increased by 96.78% and 58.89% respectively. Running speed could directly affect plantar fascia loading, which should be considered in running regimens and rehabilitation programmes. However, prescribing speed control for runners is worth pondering as it influences the trade-off between maximum single-step loads and loading frequency, which in coalescence determine the risk of plantar fascia injury and warranted further investigations.
跑步速度对足底筋膜负荷有影响,并与足底筋膜病理有关。本研究采用动态有限元足部模型和计算仿真,计算并比较了不同跑步速度条件下的足底筋膜应变。该模型先前经过验证,具有20块骨骼,大块软组织,肌肉/韧带和足底筋膜的实体部分。一名跑步者在一个首选速度(PS)、两个较低速度(PS - 10%和PS - 20%)和两个较高速度(PS + 10%和PS + 20%)条件下进行跑步试验。对运动数据进行处理以驱动肌肉骨骼建模和计算边界/加载条件,用于随后的有限元分析。结果表明,随着跑步速度的增加,足底筋膜应变峰值增大。从PS - 20%到PS + 20%,近端筋膜区和远端筋膜区峰值应变分别提高了96.78%和58.89%。跑步速度可以直接影响足底筋膜负荷,在跑步方案和康复方案中应考虑到这一点。然而,给跑步者开速度控制处方是值得思考的,因为它会影响最大单步负荷和负荷频率之间的权衡,这两者共同决定了足底筋膜损伤的风险,值得进一步研究。
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引用次数: 1
Are super-long escalators safe? Lessons learned from the Langham Place escalator incident in Hong Kong 超长自动扶梯安全吗?香港朗豪坊自动梯事件的教训
Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-04-15 DOI: 10.33430/V28N1THIE-2019-0029
A. Ngan, K. Siu
Super-long escalators that are increasingly used in mega-cities take up a large number of passengers, and so their risk of sudden failure draws serious attention. As a case study, on 25 March 2017, an escalator with a 21 m elevation in Hong Kong’s Langham Place had its main drive chain suddenly snapped by metal fatigue, causing the escalator to reverse at an accelerating speed. A number of passengers were injured. In this paper, two issues will be discussed: (1) whether metal fatigue of the main drive chain can be detected with conventional protocols, and (2) what safety factor is needed to prevent metal fatigue. Analysis shows that initial fatigue cracks in escalator drive chains may not be easily detected with the commonly adopted maintenance protocol. Also, the time window from the emergence of clear signs of fatigue failure to the sudden snapping of the drive chain may be as short as weeks or even days, versus the common safety inspection intervals of six months. The safety factor to prevent metal fatigue of the drive chain should be at least 7, whereas lower values are currently allowed. It is suggested that the government should review the legal requirements to meet the recommended value.
超大城市中越来越多地使用的超长自动扶梯占用了大量乘客,因此其突然故障的风险引起了人们的严重关注。作为案例研究,2017年3月25日,香港朗豪坊一部21米高的自动扶梯的主传动链因金属疲劳而突然断裂,导致自动扶梯以加速速度倒车。一些乘客受伤。在本文中,将讨论两个问题:(1)主传动链的金属疲劳是否可以用常规协议检测,以及(2)预防金属疲劳需要什么安全系数。分析表明,自动扶梯传动链的初始疲劳裂纹可能不容易用常用的维修方案检测出来。此外,从出现明显的疲劳故障迹象到传动链突然断裂的时间窗口可能短至几周甚至几天,而常见的安全检查间隔为六个月。防止传动链金属疲劳的安全系数应至少为7,而目前允许更低的值。建议政府应重新审查法律要求,以达到建议值。
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引用次数: 0
Use of saturation diving technique for tunnel boring machine cutterhead intervention in the Tuen Mun–Chek Lap Kok Link Sub-sea Tunnel Project, Hong Kong 在香港屯门至赤角连接海底隧道工程中,隧道掘进机刀盘介入工程采用饱和潜水技术
Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-04-15 DOI: 10.33430/V28N1THIE-2019-0044
A. Chan, Charles H C Yeung, A. Westmoreland, S. Fok, C. Ng, F. Guedon
The entire Tuen Mun–Chek Lap Kok Link (TM-CLKL) was commissioned on 27 December 2020 and it comprises a 9km-long dual 2-lane carriageway between Tuen Mun and North Lantau, Hong Kong. Construction of the 5km-long sub-sea tunnels was carried out by two 14m diameter Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs). The tunnel alignment for the TM-CLKL sub-sea tunnel section is in mixed ground condition with the first 500 m in mixed geology of slightly to moderately decomposed granite and completely decomposed granite (CDG), followed by soft ground condition with CDG, alluvial sand, alluvial clay and marine deposit. This mixed ground geology requires regular TBM cutterhead interventions to change the worn-out cutting tools during the tunnelling operation. As the tunnel alignment is up to 55 m below the sea level with the deepest seabed level at -21 mPD, in order to maintain the cutting face stability during the intervention, the intervention pressure could be up to 6 bars. This paper describes different techniques used for TBM interventions under the sea such as trimix bounce mode and saturation mode that appears first time in Hong Kong under a high hyperbaric pressure to change the worn-out cutting tools at the TBM cutterhead.
整个屯门至赤?角连接路于2020年12月27日启用,包括一条长9公里的双程双线行车线,连接香港屯门及北大屿山。5公里长的海底隧道由两台直径14米的隧道掘进机(TBM)进行施工。TM-CLKL海底隧道段的隧道线形处于混合地面条件下,前500米为轻度至中度风化花岗岩和完全风化花岗岩(CDG)的混合地质,其次为CDG、冲积砂、冲积粘土和海洋沉积物的软地面条件。这种混合地面地质需要定期TBM刀盘干预,以在隧道施工期间更换磨损的切割工具。由于隧道定线位于海平面以下55 m处,最深海底水位为-21 mPD,为了在干预期间保持切割面的稳定性,干预压力可能高达6 bar。本文介绍了在香港首次在高压下出现的用于更换TBM刀盘磨损刀具的三元弹动模式和饱和模式等不同的海上TBM干预技术。
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引用次数: 0
Special Issue with Awarded and Shortlisted Papers from the HKIE Outstanding Paper Award for Young Engineers/Researchers 2020 香港工程师学会青年工程师/研究人员杰出论文奖2020获奖论文和入围论文特刊
Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2021-01-11 DOI: 10.33430/v27n4
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引用次数: 0
Chillers of air-conditioning systems: An overview 空调制冷系统:概述
Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2020-10-30 DOI: 10.33430/v27n3thie-2019-0055
M. Leung, C. Tso, Wei Wu, Zhanying Zheng, Jingyu Cao
In tropical and subtropical regions, air-conditioning commonly consumes the most energy in buildings. The chillers used in existing air-conditioning systems are largely based on thermodynamic vapour compression cycle because the cycle is highly effective, efficient and practical. Moreover, the system installation and operation are convenient when grid electricity is available. Popular vapour compression chiller types include air-cooled, water-cooled, seawater-cooled and oil-free chillers. In addition, thermal-driven absorption and adsorption chillers have become available in the market. Viable sources of thermal energy input include fuel combustion, renewable solar energy, waste heat, and so on. This paperprovides an overview of different types of chillers and system configurations in terms of mechanisms, characteristics, energy efficiency, environmental performance and costs. The technical information and comparisons should help engineers select the chiller type in air-conditioning system design for achieving high sustainability.
在热带和亚热带地区,空调通常是建筑物中消耗能源最多的。现有空调系统中使用的冷却器主要基于热力蒸汽压缩循环,因为该循环是高效、高效和实用的。此外,在电网供电的情况下,系统的安装和操作也很方便。流行的蒸汽压缩冷却器类型包括风冷、水冷、海水冷却和无油冷却器。此外,市场上已经可以买到热驱动的吸收式和吸附式冷却器。可行的热能输入来源包括燃料燃烧、可再生太阳能、废热等。本文从机理、特性、能源效率、环境性能和成本等方面概述了不同类型的冷却器和系统配置。技术信息和比较应帮助工程师在空调系统设计中选择制冷机类型,以实现高度可持续性。
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引用次数: 2
Thermophilic co-digestion of food waste and sewage sludge 食物垃圾和污水污泥的嗜热共消化
Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2020-10-30 DOI: 10.33430/v27n3thie-2019-0019
J. Li
Due to the rising concerns regarding food waste disposal as well as the increasing demand for renewable energy nowadays, a number of European countries have adopted anaerobic co-digestion, a technology that deals with food waste and sewage sludge. As stated in the HKSAR Government’s Policy Address 2016, the feasibility of using existing sewage treatment facilities for co-digestion of food waste and sewage sludge has been under exploration. A trial scheme has been commenced in 2019. This paper aims to compare the efficiency of biogas production and volatile solid reduction in co-digestion of food waste and sewage with mono-digestion in laboratory scale.
由于人们对食物垃圾处理的日益关注,以及当今对可再生能源的需求不断增加,一些欧洲国家已经采用了厌氧共消化技术,这是一种处理食物垃圾和污水污泥的技术。正如香港特区政府在2016年施政报告中所述,当局一直在探讨利用现有污水处理设施共消化食物垃圾和污水污泥的可行性。一项试验计划已于2019年启动。本文旨在比较实验室规模的食物垃圾和污水联合消化和单一消化中沼气生产和挥发性固体减少的效率。
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引用次数: 0
Energetic and economic analysis of vapour compression refrigeration systems applied in different temperature ranges 不同温度范围下蒸汽压缩制冷系统的能量和经济分析
Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2020-10-30 DOI: 10.33430/v27n3thie-2018-0035
Zhili Sun, Cui Qi, Qingzhao Liu, Caiyun Wang, Jiamei Li, Yang Lijie
To determine the suitable vapour compression refrigeration system for different temperature ranges, this paper established thermodynamic models for a single-stage vapour compression refrigeration system with an economiser (SSRS+E), a two-stage vapour compression refrigeration system (TSRS), and a cascade vapour compression refrigeration system (CRS) and conducted an energetic and economic analysis of it. The results show that compared with TSRS, SSRS+E can save energy by 13.6% and 7.1%, in the evaporating temperatures of -20°C and -25°C, respectively. R744/R717 CRS is superior to TSRS in terms of energy consumption and refrigeration unit investment costs. Compared with TSRS, R744/R717 CRS can save energy by 14.1% and 18.8%, in the evaporating temperatures of -45°C and -50°C, respectively. Based on the energetic and economic analysis, SSRS+E is recommended for use above the evaporating temperature of -25°C. TSRS is recommended for use in the evaporating temperature range of -45°C to -25°C, and R744/R717 CRS is recommended for use below the evaporating temperature of -45°C.
为了确定适合不同温度范围的蒸汽压缩制冷系统,本文分别建立了单级省煤器蒸汽压缩制冷系统(SSRS+E)、两级蒸汽压缩制冷系统(TSRS)和叶栅蒸汽压缩制冷系统(CRS)的热力学模型,并对其进行了能量和经济分析。结果表明,在蒸发温度为-20℃和-25℃时,与TSRS相比,SSRS+E分别节能13.6%和7.1%。R744/R717 CRS在能耗和制冷机组投资成本方面优于TSRS。与TSRS相比,R744/R717 CRS在蒸发温度为-45℃和-50℃时分别节能14.1%和18.8%。基于能量和经济分析,SSRS+E推荐在蒸发温度-25℃以上使用。推荐在-45℃~ -25℃蒸发温度范围内使用TSRS,推荐在-45℃蒸发温度以下使用R744/R717 CRS。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Transactions Hong Kong Institution of Engineers
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