We evaluate the impact of a reduction in the child qualifying age for the One-Parent Family Payment in Ireland. From 2012 to 2015, the child qualifying age was reduced from 18 to 7 years. Lone parents who no longer qualified for the payment, based on the age of their child, could avail of Jobseekers Transitional Payment, which involves a labour activation component. The reforms led to an increase in the average hours worked of lone parents of between 2 and 5 h per week. Lone parents impacted by the policy were 13 percentage points more likely to be working. In addition, we find an increase in household income of between 9% and 12%, and an increase of between 23% and 29% in earnings from employment. Finally, the policy was associated with a 10–14 percentage point reduction in the poverty rate of lone parents.
{"title":"The Impact of One Parent Family Payment Reforms on the Labour Market Outcomes of Lone Parents","authors":"P. Redmond, S. McGuinness, C. Keane","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3568313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3568313","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We evaluate the impact of a reduction in the child qualifying age for the One-Parent Family Payment in Ireland. From 2012 to 2015, the child qualifying age was reduced from 18 to 7 years. Lone parents who no longer qualified for the payment, based on the age of their child, could avail of Jobseekers Transitional Payment, which involves a labour activation component. The reforms led to an increase in the average hours worked of lone parents of between 2 and 5 h per week. Lone parents impacted by the policy were 13 percentage points more likely to be working. In addition, we find an increase in household income of between 9% and 12%, and an increase of between 23% and 29% in earnings from employment. Finally, the policy was associated with a 10–14 percentage point reduction in the poverty rate of lone parents.","PeriodicalId":360236,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Government Expenditures & Related Policies eJournal","volume":"7 Suppl 8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124832188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In developed economies, the population is aging and social security expenditure is projected to increase. This paper examines the effect of increasing the retirement age at which people start receiving pension on human capital investment and labor productivity. I build a quantitative overlapping-generations model with endogenous human capital investment in the Ben-Porath style. I find that increasing the retirement age increases human capital investment and labor productivity. People work for longer years until the new retirement age, and thus they invest more in human capital while young. Increasing the retirement age by 2 years leads to a welfare improvement of 1.2%.
{"title":"The Effect of Retirement Age on Labor Productivity: A Macroeconomic Approach","authors":"Kazushige Matsuda","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3909002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3909002","url":null,"abstract":"In developed economies, the population is aging and social security expenditure is projected to increase. This paper examines the effect of increasing the retirement age at which people start receiving pension on human capital investment and labor productivity. I build a quantitative overlapping-generations model with endogenous human capital investment in the Ben-Porath style. I find that increasing the retirement age increases human capital investment and labor productivity. People work for longer years until the new retirement age, and thus they invest more in human capital while young. Increasing the retirement age by 2 years leads to a welfare improvement of 1.2%.","PeriodicalId":360236,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Government Expenditures & Related Policies eJournal","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124793166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Romanian Abstract: Componenta financiar-bugetară a sistemului național de apărare este foarte importantă. Din această cauză abordăm unele probleme pe baza documentelor / rapoartelor publicate recent. Resursele alocate prin procesul bugetar anual vizează stabilirea capacităților, aducerea sau menținerea acestora la nivelul standardelor, precum și asigurarea funcționalităților de bază ale instituției. Conform recomandărilor NATO, resursele alocate Apărării trebuie completate până când acestea ating nivelul de 2% din PIB. Din abordarea distribuției cheltuielilor de apărare pe categorii, rezultă că cel mai mare procent (66%) aparține cheltuielilor de personal; pentru echipamente se alocă un procent de 14%, iar pentru infrastructură se atribuie cel mai mic procent, 1,5%. Restul de 17% din cheltuielile totale alocate pentru apărare sunt destinate altor activități - întreținere, cercetare și dezvoltare. Auditul activității specifice a arătat că situațiile financiare, în ansamblu, au fost întocmite în conformitate cu cadrul general de raportare financiară și oferă o imagine fidelă a poziției financiare, a performanței financiare a Ministerului Apărării. Aceasta înseamnă că abaterile / neconformitățile sunt nesemnificative. English Abstract: The financial-budgetary component of the national defense system is very important. Because of this we approach some issues based on documents / reports published recently. The resources allocated through the annual budget process aim at establishing capacities, bringing or maintaining them at the level of standards, as well as ensuring the basic functionalities of the institution. According to NATO recommendations, the resources allocated to Defense must be supplemented until they reach the level of 2% of GDP. From the approach of the distribution of defense expenditures by categories, it results that the highest percentage (66%) belongs to personnel expenditures; for the equipment a percentage of 14% is allocated, and for the infrastructure the lowest percentage is assigned, 1.5%. The remaining 17% of the total expenditure allocated to defense goes to other activities - maintenance and research and development. The audit of the specific activity showed that the financial statements, as a whole, were prepared in accordance with the general financial reporting framework and provide a true picture of the financial position, the financial performance of the Ministry of Defense. This means that deviations / non-conformities are insignificant.
{"title":"Auditul extern al fondurilor destinate siguranţei şi apărării naţionale (External Audit of Funds for National Security and Defense)","authors":"Ionel Bostan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3896203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3896203","url":null,"abstract":"Romanian Abstract: Componenta financiar-bugetară a sistemului național de apărare este foarte importantă. Din această cauză abordăm unele probleme pe baza documentelor / rapoartelor publicate recent. Resursele alocate prin procesul bugetar anual vizează stabilirea capacităților, aducerea sau menținerea acestora la nivelul standardelor, precum și asigurarea funcționalităților de bază ale instituției. Conform recomandărilor NATO, resursele alocate Apărării trebuie completate până când acestea ating nivelul de 2% din PIB. Din abordarea distribuției cheltuielilor de apărare pe categorii, rezultă că cel mai mare procent (66%) aparține cheltuielilor de personal; pentru echipamente se alocă un procent de 14%, iar pentru infrastructură se atribuie cel mai mic procent, 1,5%. Restul de 17% din cheltuielile totale alocate pentru apărare sunt destinate altor activități - întreținere, cercetare și dezvoltare. Auditul activității specifice a arătat că situațiile financiare, în ansamblu, au fost întocmite în conformitate cu cadrul general de raportare financiară și oferă o imagine fidelă a poziției financiare, a performanței financiare a Ministerului Apărării. Aceasta înseamnă că abaterile / neconformitățile sunt nesemnificative. English Abstract: The financial-budgetary component of the national defense system is very important. Because of this we approach some issues based on documents / reports published recently. The resources allocated through the annual budget process aim at establishing capacities, bringing or maintaining them at the level of standards, as well as ensuring the basic functionalities of the institution. According to NATO recommendations, the resources allocated to Defense must be supplemented until they reach the level of 2% of GDP. From the approach of the distribution of defense expenditures by categories, it results that the highest percentage (66%) belongs to personnel expenditures; for the equipment a percentage of 14% is allocated, and for the infrastructure the lowest percentage is assigned, 1.5%. The remaining 17% of the total expenditure allocated to defense goes to other activities - maintenance and research and development. The audit of the specific activity showed that the financial statements, as a whole, were prepared in accordance with the general financial reporting framework and provide a true picture of the financial position, the financial performance of the Ministry of Defense. This means that deviations / non-conformities are insignificant.","PeriodicalId":360236,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Government Expenditures & Related Policies eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117080710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Why do individuals retire and claim their Social Security benefits at the age they do? Understanding the key drivers of these decisions has been an important topic of research as it can help guide policy discussions on the impact of potential reforms to the Social Security program. We revisit this crucial question by exploring new sources of heterogeneity in these decisions as well as novel mechanisms governing these trade-offs. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study and the Understanding America Survey, we first document (1) important heterogeneities in social security claiming behavior of men by their education and marital status, (2) strong correlations between health, labor supply and benefit claiming decisions and (3) significant misinformation related to Social Security program knowledge and survival chances at older ages. We then build a life-cycle model of consumption, savings, labor supply, and Social Security application decisions as well as heterogeneity in education, marital status and SS program knowledge. The model includes uncertainty in health, subjective survival, wages, and job separation as well as rich details of the U.S. Social Security program to understand why a majority of individuals claim Social Security benefits prior to their normal retirement age, despite large penalties associated with these early benefit claims. We show that the estimated model can closely match the claiming behavior as seen in the data and also produce differences in SS claims along the dimensions of heterogeneity considered. Counterfactual experiments indicate that precautionary motives, misinformation, and preferences governing future discounting as well as altruism, together, go a long way in explaining overall claiming behavior. Together, these forces can explain a third of the overall early benefit claims and two-thirds of age 62 claims– with varying intensities across education and marital groups.
{"title":"Revisiting Retirement and Social Security Claiming Decisions","authors":"N. Bairoliya, Kathleen McKiernan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3896031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3896031","url":null,"abstract":"Why do individuals retire and claim their Social Security benefits at the age they do? Understanding the key drivers of these decisions has been an important topic of research as it can help guide policy discussions on the impact of potential reforms to the Social Security program. We revisit this crucial question by exploring new sources of heterogeneity in these decisions as well as novel mechanisms governing these trade-offs. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study and the Understanding America Survey, we first document (1) important heterogeneities in social security claiming behavior of men by their education and marital status, (2) strong correlations between health, labor supply and benefit claiming decisions and (3) significant misinformation related to Social Security program knowledge and survival chances at older ages. We then build a life-cycle model of consumption, savings, labor supply, and Social Security application decisions as well as heterogeneity in education, marital status and SS program knowledge. The model includes uncertainty in health, subjective survival, wages, and job separation as well as rich details of the U.S. Social Security program to understand why a majority of individuals claim Social Security benefits prior to their normal retirement age, despite large penalties associated with these early benefit claims. We show that the estimated model can closely match the claiming behavior as seen in the data and also produce differences in SS claims along the dimensions of heterogeneity considered. Counterfactual experiments indicate that precautionary motives, misinformation, and preferences governing future discounting as well as altruism, together, go a long way in explaining overall claiming behavior. Together, these forces can explain a third of the overall early benefit claims and two-thirds of age 62 claims– with varying intensities across education and marital groups.","PeriodicalId":360236,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Government Expenditures & Related Policies eJournal","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127966604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the impact of health insurance expansion on medical liability costs using the case of the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) Medicaid expansion. Medicaid expansion has increased the demand for medical services, but in doing so it may also have increased physicians’ liability in medical practices. By studying medical malpractice insurers’ performance in the U.S. for the period 2010–2018, we find insurers operating in states with Medicaid expansion experienced significantly higher medical liability costs than those in non-expansion states. While insurers in expansion states did increase premiums, the increase was not enough to fully offset rising costs. In addition, we do not find evidence that tort reforms mitigate ACA-induced malpractice liability costs. By exploring the frequency and severity of malpractice claims, we find Medicaid expansion increased malpractice costs mainly by increasing the claim frequency, while tort reforms generally focus on reducing claim severity.
{"title":"Medicaid Expansion and Medical Liability Costs","authors":"Jingshu Luo, Hua Chen, Martin Grace","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3596507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3596507","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of health insurance expansion on medical liability costs using the case of the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) Medicaid expansion. Medicaid expansion has increased the demand for medical services, but in doing so it may also have increased physicians’ liability in medical practices. By studying medical malpractice insurers’ performance in the U.S. for the period 2010–2018, we find insurers operating in states with Medicaid expansion experienced significantly higher medical liability costs than those in non-expansion states. While insurers in expansion states did increase premiums, the increase was not enough to fully offset rising costs. In addition, we do not find evidence that tort reforms mitigate ACA-induced malpractice liability costs. By exploring the frequency and severity of malpractice claims, we find Medicaid expansion increased malpractice costs mainly by increasing the claim frequency, while tort reforms generally focus on reducing claim severity.","PeriodicalId":360236,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Government Expenditures & Related Policies eJournal","volume":"190 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132348462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyse the effects of a national reform of higher education financing on the decision making of secondary school students in the Netherlands. The reform eliminated a universal subsidy for higher education students and replaced it by a low-interest loan, causing a substantive increase in the private costs of higher education. We show that the reform had a large impact on students’ decision making, decreasing the share of secondary school students following college-preparing tracks by 6.8 percentage points. The reform also affected students’ subject specialization choices, and the living arrangements of new college entrants. We show that secondary school students respond to the costs of higher education well ahead of their graduation, which has important consequences for the design of empirical studies of higher education financing. It also shows that policy uncertainty regarding financial aid is sufficient to deter many students from pursuing higher education.
{"title":"From Subsidies to Loans: The Effects of a National Student Finance Reform on the Choices of Secondary School Students","authors":"Alexandra de Gendre, J. Kabátek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3898314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3898314","url":null,"abstract":"We analyse the effects of a national reform of higher education financing on the decision making of secondary school students in the Netherlands. The reform eliminated a universal subsidy for higher education students and replaced it by a low-interest loan, causing a substantive increase in the private costs of higher education. We show that the reform had a large impact on students’ decision making, decreasing the share of secondary school students following college-preparing tracks by 6.8 percentage points. The reform also affected students’ subject specialization choices, and the living arrangements of new college entrants. We show that secondary school students respond to the costs of higher education well ahead of their graduation, which has important consequences for the design of empirical studies of higher education financing. It also shows that policy uncertainty regarding financial aid is sufficient to deter many students from pursuing higher education.","PeriodicalId":360236,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Government Expenditures & Related Policies eJournal","volume":"2015 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127692451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of teachers’ characteristics (qualification, years of teaching experience and attitude) and students’ academic performance of Biology in secondary schools in Calabar Municipality of Cross River State, Nigeria. A survey research design was used. And two instruments were used for data collections. Questionnaires and Biology Achievement Test (BAT). Simple random sampling was used to select one hundred and fifty SS2 Biology students and five teachers. Data collected were analyzed using One-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The researcher posited three null hypotheses (two were tested at 0.05 level of significance). The result revealed that teachers’ qualification and teachers’ years of teaching experience inextricably has a significant influence on students’ academic performance in Biology, while teachers’ attitude did not influence students’ academic performance. Based on these findings, the researcher recommended that Government should put in place measure and incentives to encourage and motivate experience teachers in the school system and students should learn to be studious not relying on only for their academic performance.
{"title":"Instructors’ Variables and Academic Performance of Biology Students","authors":"J. Basil","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3874120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3874120","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of teachers’ characteristics (qualification, years of teaching experience and attitude) and students’ academic performance of Biology in secondary schools in Calabar Municipality of Cross River State, Nigeria. A survey research design was used. And two instruments were used for data collections. Questionnaires and Biology Achievement Test (BAT). Simple random sampling was used to select one hundred and fifty SS2 Biology students and five teachers. Data collected were analyzed using One-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The researcher posited three null hypotheses (two were tested at 0.05 level of significance). The result revealed that teachers’ qualification and teachers’ years of teaching experience inextricably has a significant influence on students’ academic performance in Biology, while teachers’ attitude did not influence students’ academic performance. Based on these findings, the researcher recommended that Government should put in place measure and incentives to encourage and motivate experience teachers in the school system and students should learn to be studious not relying on only for their academic performance.","PeriodicalId":360236,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Government Expenditures & Related Policies eJournal","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115627508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study estimates the expected benefit from delayed Social Security claiming for higher-earning, healthier women who can expect to receive more future income payments than other Americans. The expected net present value of Social Security payments from delayed claiming for healthy women is $179,999, or more than twice the value of delayed claiming for a male of average health. The benefit from delayed claiming ranges from a low of $16,548 per year to $29,395 per year for healthy women. Even average health women gain at least $132,202 in Social Security wealth by waiting until age 70 to claim Social Security income benefits. Significant gains to women who delay claiming are robust to a 2% increase in real discount rates and to a 21% reduction in income that could occur if the Social Security trust fund depletes in 2026. The added benefits from reduced longevity and inflation risk suggest that the failure to delay claiming results in a significant loss in both retirement wealth and expected welfare.
{"title":"The Value of Delayed Social Security Claiming for Higher-Earning Women","authors":"S. Duffy, Michael S. Finke, David Blanchett","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3849653","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3849653","url":null,"abstract":"This study estimates the expected benefit from delayed Social Security claiming for higher-earning, healthier women who can expect to receive more future income payments than other Americans. The expected net present value of Social Security payments from delayed claiming for healthy women is $179,999, or more than twice the value of delayed claiming for a male of average health. The benefit from delayed claiming ranges from a low of $16,548 per year to $29,395 per year for healthy women. Even average health women gain at least $132,202 in Social Security wealth by waiting until age 70 to claim Social Security income benefits. Significant gains to women who delay claiming are robust to a 2% increase in real discount rates and to a 21% reduction in income that could occur if the Social Security trust fund depletes in 2026. The added benefits from reduced longevity and inflation risk suggest that the failure to delay claiming results in a significant loss in both retirement wealth and expected welfare.","PeriodicalId":360236,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Government Expenditures & Related Policies eJournal","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131574088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
COVID-19 is an ongoing global outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019, an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30, 2020; and a pandemic on March 11, 2020. Several mitigation measures have been used in attempts to limit the spread of the virus, including mandatory wearing of masks in public; bans on unnecessary travel; and the closure of non-essential businesses. This paper defines a lockdown as the closure of non-essential businesses combined with requirements that all citizens stay at home except for grocery shopping, trips to a pharmacy, and medical appointments. The effectiveness of lockdowns is controversial. Proponents tend to argue that lockdowns would have been more effective if enforcement had been increased and if lockdowns had been extended for a longer period of time. Opponents have argued that lockdowns hurt the economy, hurt children, and have had little positive effect on public health. The paper addresses the economic effect of COVID-19 lockdowns in the United States using a Benefit/Cost Analysis (BCA) framework. Two separate analyses are provided: a traditional BCA analysis, which assumes that the value of life is constant regardless of age; and a Preferred Analysis, which adjusts the number of deaths, and values the economic cost of the deaths based on the age of the deceased. Keywords: benefit/cost analysis, COVID-19, GDP, lockdowns, unemployment
{"title":"The Economic Effect of the COVID-19 Lockdown in the United States: Was the Cure Worse than the Disease?","authors":"L. J. Reid","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3848723","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3848723","url":null,"abstract":"COVID-19 is an ongoing global outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019, an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30, 2020; and a pandemic on March 11, 2020. Several mitigation measures have been used in attempts to limit the spread of the virus, including mandatory wearing of masks in public; bans on unnecessary travel; and the closure of non-essential businesses. This paper defines a lockdown as the closure of non-essential businesses combined with requirements that all citizens stay at home except for grocery shopping, trips to a pharmacy, and medical appointments. The effectiveness of lockdowns is controversial. Proponents tend to argue that lockdowns would have been more effective if enforcement had been increased and if lockdowns had been extended for a longer period of time. Opponents have argued that lockdowns hurt the economy, hurt children, and have had little positive effect on public health. The paper addresses the economic effect of COVID-19 lockdowns in the United States using a Benefit/Cost Analysis (BCA) framework. Two separate analyses are provided: a traditional BCA analysis, which assumes that the value of life is constant regardless of age; and a Preferred Analysis, which adjusts the number of deaths, and values the economic cost of the deaths based on the age of the deceased. Keywords: benefit/cost analysis, COVID-19, GDP, lockdowns, unemployment","PeriodicalId":360236,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Government Expenditures & Related Policies eJournal","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128354038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The labor supply of older men increased from the 1930s to the 1950s cohort. I estimate a structural model that fits the participation and hours worked by the 1930s cohort well. The observed policy changes in normal retirement age, the earnings test, and delayed retirement credits explain 73.4% and 88.7% of the observed rises in labor force participation and hours worked by the 1950s cohort. Additional policy experiments suggest that postponing retirement age have little effect on older workers, while eliminating the earnings test and reducing retirement benefits would further increase older age participation by 3.37 and 5.10 percent, respectively.
{"title":"Trends in Labor Supply of Older Men and the Role of Social Security","authors":"Zhixiu Yu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3851507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3851507","url":null,"abstract":"The labor supply of older men increased from the 1930s to the 1950s cohort. I estimate a structural model that fits the participation and hours worked by the 1930s cohort well. The observed policy changes in normal retirement age, the earnings test, and delayed retirement credits explain 73.4% and 88.7% of the observed rises in labor force participation and hours worked by the 1950s cohort. Additional policy experiments suggest that postponing retirement age have little effect on older workers, while eliminating the earnings test and reducing retirement benefits would further increase older age participation by 3.37 and 5.10 percent, respectively.<br>","PeriodicalId":360236,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Government Expenditures & Related Policies eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129995511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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