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Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in China 中国军费开支与经济增长
Pub Date : 2020-05-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3601487
S. Agyapong
Purpose: In this study, we contribute to the existing literature by examining the relationship between military spending changes and economic growth in China over the period 1995 to 2018 using granger causality test. We would also explore short and long run relationship between GDP growth and military expenditure of China.

Approach/Methodology/Design: Data used in this study are yearly data covering the period of 1995 to 2018 and the variables are Gross Domestic product (GDP) and Military Expenditure (ME). Data were collected from World Bank. GDP is at 2010 constant US prices and ME is expressed as a percentage of economic growth. All variables are transformed into the natural logarithm to obtain growth effects.

Findings: Using causality test, the causal relationship between the variables revealed that the alternative hypothesis should be accepted which is lagged GDP variable (proxy of economic growth) does not cause ME in our first VAR granger causality Wald test model. However, we discover and verified that there is one-way causality from economic growth to military spending, but no causality from military spending to economic growth is observed in this study. China’s positive economic growth can finance its military expenditure.

Practical Implications: The study will contribute positively to the understanding of influence of GDP on military expenditure for emerging and developed economies.

Originality/value: This study innovates by using co-integration, E-granger and granger causality test to find out economic growth causing military expenditure in developing economies like China.
目的:在本研究中,我们利用格兰杰因果检验检验1995 - 2018年中国军费开支变化与经济增长的关系,为现有文献做出贡献。我们还将探讨GDP增长与中国军费开支之间的短期和长期关系。方法/方法/设计:本研究中使用的数据是1995年至2018年的年度数据,变量是国内生产总值(GDP)和军费开支(ME)。数据来自世界银行。GDP以2010年不变的美国价格计算,ME以经济增长的百分比表示。所有变量都被转换成自然对数,以获得增长效果。结果:通过因果关系检验,变量之间的因果关系表明,在我们的第一个VAR granger因果关系Wald检验模型中,滞后的GDP变量(经济增长的代理)不会导致ME,应该接受替代假设。然而,我们发现并验证了经济增长与军费开支之间存在单向因果关系,但本研究并未发现军费开支与经济增长之间存在因果关系。中国积极的经济增长可以为其军费开支提供资金。实际意义:本研究将有助于理解GDP对新兴经济体和发达经济体军费开支的影响。原创性/价值:本研究采用协整、e -格兰杰、格兰杰因果检验等方法进行创新,找出中国等发展中经济体的经济增长对军费开支的影响。
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引用次数: 1
Разработка на институциональном уровне дидактического и психолого-педагогического инструментария оценки метапредметных образовательных результатов обучающихся в урочной и внеурочной деятельности (Development at the Institutional Level of Didactic and Psychological-Pedagogical Tools for Assessing Met 制度化和心理学-教学工具评价教学课外和课外活动的元学科教育成果(《Didactic and psychologic - psygogical工具》)
Pub Date : 2020-05-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3692350
N. Tarasova, I. Pastukhova, Svetlana Chigrina
Russian Abstract: Модернизация и развитие российского образования – следствие и объективный ответ на вызовы времени, динамичные преобразования в обществе, экономике, политике, а также мировые образовательные тренды, сопровождающиеся существенными изменениями в педагогической теории и практике образования. В процессе профессионально-педагогической деятельности учителей возникают затруднения при оценке и интерпретации достигаемых учащимися новых образовательных результатов, особенно – метапредметных (универсальные учебные действия) и личностных, которые формируются и развиваются не только в процессе обучения, но и в разнообразных видах внеурочной деятельности, включая интеллектуальные виды спорта (шахматы, компьютерные игры, киберспорт и др.). Деятельность педагогов осложняется тем, что в отечественных, как, впрочем, и в международных подходах и системах оценки метапредметных образовательных результатов, не устоялся терминологический аппарат и существует множество подходов к определению сущности понятий «метапредметность» и «метапредметные образовательные результаты». На решение данной проблемы направлено исследование «Разработка на институциональном уровне дидактического и психолого-педагогического инструментария оценки метапредметных образовательных результатов обучающихся в урочной и внеурочной деятельности».

English Abstract: The modernization and development of Russian education is a consequence and an objective response to the challenges of the time, dynamic transformations in society, economy, politics, as well as global educational trends, accompanied by significant changes in pedagogical theory and practice of education. In the process of professional pedagogical activity of teachers, difficulties arise in assessing and interpreting the new educational results achieved by students, especially metasubject (universal educational actions) and personal ones, which are formed and developed not only in the learning process, but also in various types of extracurricular activities, including intellectual types sports (chess, computer games, e-sports, etc.). The activities of teachers are complicated by the fact that in domestic, as well as in international approaches and systems for assessing metasubject educational results, the terminological apparatus has not been established and there are many approaches to defining the essence of the concepts of “metasubject” and “Metasubject educational outcomes”. The study "Development of didactic and psychological-pedagogical tools for assessing metasubject educational results of students in classroom and extracurricular activities" is aimed at solving this problem.
俄罗斯Abstract:俄罗斯教育的现代化和发展是对时间挑战、社会、经济、政治和全球教育趋势的客观回应,伴随着教育理论和实践的重大变化。在职业教育活动中,教师很难评估和解释学生所取得的新教育成果,特别是元学科(普遍性教学)和个人成果,这些成果不仅在学习过程中产生和发展,而且在各种课外活动中形成和发展,包括智力运动(国际象棋、计算机游戏、网络体育等)。教师活动的复杂之处在于,国内的方法,国际的方法和评价元学科教育结果的系统,没有固定的术语,有很多方法来定义“元学科”和“元学科教育成果”。旨在解决这一问题的研究重点是“在制度层面上发展为评价课程和课外活动的元学科教育成果的教学工具”。英语Abstract:俄罗斯教育的现代发展是对时代挑战的一种理解和探索,社会的动态变化,经济的变化,政治的变化。In the process of professional pedagogical based of teachers, difficulties results的In委员会and interpreting the new教育achieved by学生,especially metasubject (actions) and personal ones,环球教育主演are formed and developed not only In the learning process, but also In《types of extracurricular activities, including高智发明types sports (chess, computer games, e - sports, etc)。技术人员的行动是由事实决定的,就像在国际应用程序和系统中一样,“我们还没有建立起来,而且有一种方法可以解决“metasubject”和“metasubect edutcomes”。工作室“didactic和心理治疗工具”是classroom和extracuriacities中学生的学习工具。
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引用次数: 0
Public Health Interventions and Economic Growth: Revisiting The Spanish Flu Evidence 公共卫生干预和经济增长:重新审视西班牙流感的证据
Pub Date : 2020-05-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3590008
Andrew Lilley, M. Lilley, Gianluca Rinaldi
Using data from 43 US cities, Correia, Luck, and Verner (2020) finds that the 1918 Flu pandemic decreased economic growth, but that Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) mitigated its adverse economic effects. Their starting point is a striking positive correlation between 1914-1919 economic growth and the extent of NPIs adopted at the city level. We show that those results are driven by population growth between 1910 to 1917, before the pandemic. We also extend their difference in differences analysis to earlier periods, and find that once we account for pre-existing differential trends, the estimated effect of NPIs on economic growth are a noisy zero; we can neither rule out substantial positive nor negative effects of NPIs on employment growth.
Correia, Luck和Verner(2020)使用来自43个美国城市的数据发现,1918年流感大流行降低了经济增长,但非药物干预措施(NPIs)减轻了其不利的经济影响。他们的出发点是1914-1919年的经济增长与城市一级采用的npi程度之间惊人的正相关关系。我们表明,这些结果是由1910年至1917年大流行之前的人口增长推动的。我们还将他们在差异分析中的差异扩展到更早的时期,并发现一旦我们考虑到预先存在的差异趋势,npi对经济增长的估计影响是一个嘈杂的零;我们既不能排除npi对就业增长的积极或消极影响。
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引用次数: 37
More and Better: Building and Managing a Federal Energy Demonstration Project Portfolio 越来越好:建立和管理联邦能源示范项目组合
Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3905532
R. Rozansky, D. Hart
This report begins by articulating why public funding of demonstration projects is necessary in principle, and then briefly reviews the federal record in practice. Next, it describes the portfolio needed to drive forward on deep decarbonization, which will require the federal government to coinvest in many more demonstration projects. The core of the report delves into how the federal government could better manage the demonstration portfolio by articulating a set of management precepts and applying them to several options. The report concludes by summarizing our analysis and recommendations.
本报告首先阐述了为什么示范项目的公共资金原则上是必要的,然后简要回顾了联邦政府在实践中的记录。接下来,它描述了推进深度脱碳所需的投资组合,这将需要联邦政府共同投资更多的示范项目。该报告的核心是深入研究联邦政府如何通过阐述一套管理原则并将其应用于几个选项来更好地管理示范投资组合。报告最后总结了我们的分析和建议。
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引用次数: 3
Revisiting the Effects of Unemployment Insurance Extensions on Unemployment: A Measurement Error-Corrected Regression Discontinuity Approach 重新审视失业保险延长对失业的影响:一个测量误差校正的回归不连续方法
Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/POL.20160439
S. Dieterle, Otávio Bartalotti, Quentin Brummet
This study documents two potential biases in recent analyses of UI benefit extensions using boundary-based identification: bias from using county-level aggregates and bias from across-border policy spillovers. To examine the first bias, the analysis uses a regression discontinuity approach that accounts for measurement error in county-level aggregates. These results suggest much smaller effects than previous studies, casting doubt on the applicability of border-based designs. The analysis then shows substantial spillover effects of UI benefit duration on across-border work patterns, consistent with increased tightness in high-benefit states and providing evidence against a dominant vacancy reduction response to UI extensions. (JEL E24, E32, J22, J64, J65)
本研究记录了最近使用基于边界的识别方法进行的失业保险福利扩展分析中存在的两种潜在偏差:使用县级汇总的偏差和跨境政策溢出的偏差。为了检验第一种偏差,分析使用了回归不连续方法来解释县级汇总的测量误差。这些结果表明,与之前的研究相比,影响要小得多,这使人们对基于边界的设计的适用性产生了怀疑。然后,分析显示,失业保险福利持续时间对跨境工作模式产生了实质性的溢出效应,这与高福利州的紧缩程度增加相一致,并为失业保险延长对减少空缺的主要反应提供了证据。(j24, j32, j22, j64, j65)
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引用次数: 28
Study of an SB2 Beneficiary’s Pension Plan SB2受益人养老金计划研究
Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.26595/eamr.2014.6.2.3
Enriqueta Mancilla-Redón, Carmen Lozano Arizmendi
The individual account pension system established by the Social Security Act 1997 shows that the contributions of beneficiaries invested in retirement fund managers have had negative returns and the investment instrument in which the contributions of the retirement savings system are invested are not known. The objective of this study is to analyze the contributions in AFORES of an SB2 classification beneficiary invested in SIEFORES and the performance they have generated that the statements reveal to quantify in a prospective study the value of the pension in its old age. It is hypothesized that the pension obtained by a beneficiary is insufficient to sustain a quality of life at this unproductive stage of life. It applies the hemerographic-legislative technique, and a quantitative study of time series. As a result of the study is concluded that the regime individual account system pensions contains uncertainty factors for the beneficiary and meets strict requirements for temporaryity and work activity, and pension income to be received in old age will not guarantee the quality of life of individual account holders.
1997年《社会保障法》建立的个人账户养老金制度表明,受益人投资于退休基金经理的捐款产生了负回报,而退休储蓄制度的捐款所投资的投资工具是未知的。本研究的目的是分析投资于SIEFORES的SB2分类受益人在AFORES中的贡献以及他们所产生的业绩,这些报表揭示了在前瞻性研究中量化养老金在其晚年的价值。据推测,受益人获得的养恤金不足以在这个没有生产能力的人生阶段维持生活质量。它采用了流变立法技术,并对时间序列进行了定量研究。研究结果表明,个人账户制度养老金对受益人存在不确定性因素,对临时性和工作活动有严格要求,老年领取的养老金收入不能保证个人账户持有人的生活质量。
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引用次数: 0
Devastation Caused by COVID-19: Is Democracy to Blame? COVID-19造成的破坏:应归咎于民主吗?
Pub Date : 2020-04-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3596009
Badar Nadeem Ashraf
Several democracies, such as Italy, Spain, France, the United Kingdom and the United States, have observed relatively higher number of deaths from COVID-19, raising the concern about the effectiveness of democratic political institutions in dealing with the public health crisis the scale of COVID-19. In this paper, we use available cross-sectional dataset of deaths by COVID-19 from 120 countries to empirically examine this concern. We find very weak, albeit some, evidence that democratic political institutions is one potential cause behind the higher number of deaths in certain countries. While we cannot completely rule out the role of democratic political institutions however it is too early to blame democracy for the havoc caused by COVID-19. Nevertheless, we find robust evidence that countries with higher share of young population aged between 14 to 64 years experienced significantly lower deaths, while the countries with higher tourist arrivals experienced relatively higher deaths.
意大利、西班牙、法国、英国和美国等几个民主国家的COVID-19死亡人数相对较高,令人担忧民主政治机构在应对COVID-19规模的公共卫生危机方面的有效性。在本文中,我们使用来自120个国家的COVID-19死亡人数的可用横断面数据集来实证研究这一问题。我们发现,民主政治体制是某些国家较高死亡人数背后的一个潜在原因的证据非常薄弱,尽管有些证据。虽然不能完全排除民主政治制度的作用,但将新冠肺炎造成的破坏归咎于民主还为时过早。然而,我们发现有力的证据表明,年龄在14至64岁之间的年轻人口比例较高的国家的死亡率明显较低,而游客人数较多的国家的死亡率相对较高。
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引用次数: 7
Historical Analysis of Economic Impact of Terrorism in Nigeria from 1999-2019 1999-2019年尼日利亚恐怖主义经济影响历史分析
Pub Date : 2020-04-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3586926
Cynado Ezeogidi
Since 1999, Terrorist acts as occasioned by insurgency activities in the far Northern part of Nigeria, uprisings in Niger-Delta, separatist movements in South-east, herdsmen attacks in North-Central Nigeria, kidnappings in the South-West, armed robbery and judicial cum other violent activities in the rest of the country, have invariably put Nigeria in a siege perpetually afraid of what will happen next. Never a time in her history has the country threatened by fear of insurgent attacks since the civil war of 1967-1970. Political differences, poverty, ethnic struggles, fear of marginalization, nepotism, partiality in the distribution of economic resources, corruption, insincerity, deceit etc. have been contributory to the terrorist attacks in the country. Solutions seem to be far-fetched. The result is untold economic impact which continues to worsen the indices for development. Low Human Development, drop in school enrollment, unemployment, poor health conditions, in short, all statistics for development keep on dwindling as IDP Centers are established here and there with poor management and supervision. This article tends to analyze the economic impact of terrorism in Nigeria from 1999-2018. This article adopts frustration/aggression theory for interpretation of events. Secondary source materials were extensively utilized.
自1999年以来,尼日利亚远北部的叛乱活动、尼日尔三角洲的起义、东南部的分离主义运动、尼日利亚中北部的牧民袭击、西南部的绑架、武装抢劫以及该国其他地区的司法和其他暴力活动所引发的恐怖主义行为,总是使尼日利亚陷入对接下来发生的事情的恐惧之中。自1967年至1970年的内战以来,这个国家从未受到过叛乱分子袭击的威胁。政治分歧、贫穷、种族斗争、对边缘化的恐惧、裙带关系、经济资源分配中的偏袒、腐败、不诚实、欺骗等都是造成该国恐怖主义袭击的原因。解决方案似乎遥不可及。其结果是难以估量的经济影响,使发展指数继续恶化。人类发展水平低、入学率下降、失业、卫生条件差,总之,由于到处建立的国内流离失所者中心管理和监督不力,所有关于发展的统计数据都在不断减少。本文倾向于分析1999-2018年恐怖主义对尼日利亚的经济影响。本文采用挫折/攻击理论对事件进行解释。二手资料得到广泛利用。
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引用次数: 0
Looking at the Research Productivity of a Level III State College in the Philippines Towards Attaining University Status 菲律宾三级州立学院迈向大学地位的研究生产力
Pub Date : 2020-04-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3876866
R. M. Ambong, S. Lumbo, R. A. Dagos, Marlyn Nielo, Veronica C. Ferrer, Amalia E. Roldan
Existing research studies posited that research productivity in a higher education institution (HEI) is associated with faculty academic profile, co-authorship network, and institutional linkages. This article explores the research productivity in Occidental Mindoro State College, a level three state college in the Philippines, based on State Universities and Colleges Levelling indicators of the Commission on Higher Education and the Program Expenditure Classification indicators of the Department of Budget and Management for Research Program of a Philippine HEI. This article also presents the constraints and challenges of a state college in strengthening its research function in preparation to become a full-fledged university. Conclusions are drawn for policy implications.
现有研究认为,高等教育机构(HEI)的研究生产力与教师学术形象、合著者网络和机构联系有关。本文基于菲律宾高等教育委员会的州立大学和学院水平指标和菲律宾高等教育机构研究项目预算和管理部的项目支出分类指标,对菲律宾三级州立大学西方民都洛州立学院的研究生产力进行了研究。本文还提出了州立大学在准备成为一所真正的大学时,在加强研究职能方面所面临的制约和挑战。得出结论的政策影响。
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引用次数: 0
Economic Benefits of Firms' Government Sale Dependency 企业依赖政府销售的经济效益
Pub Date : 2020-04-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3576125
Bharat Raj Parajuli
In this paper, using a new channel of political connections, firm dependency on government sales, I study the value of political connections for firms. I find an economically and statistically significant relation between firm dependency on government entities in terms of revenues and the cross-section of future stock returns. Firms experience significantly higher profit margins post government dependency. In addition, past government sales significantly predict future government sales. The atypical features of government contracts and the information asymmetry between the contractor and contractee are likely to be behind the firms' higher profit margins. Further tests based on attention and uncertainty proxies suggest that investors' limited attention and greater valuation uncertainty contribute to abnormal returns. Furthermore, I find evidence suggesting that firms gain the wealth effects of political connections found by Cooper, Gulen, and Ovtchinnikov (2010) by winning material government contracts; however, the wealth effects of government dependency stay strong even after controlling for such connections.
本文采用一种新的政治关系渠道,即企业对政府销售的依赖,来研究政治关系对企业的价值。我发现,在收入方面,企业对政府实体的依赖与未来股票回报的横截面之间,存在经济上和统计上的显著关系。企业在摆脱对政府的依赖后,利润率显著提高。此外,过去的政府销售显著预测未来的政府销售。政府合同的非典型特征和承包方与承包方之间的信息不对称可能是企业高利润率背后的原因。基于注意力和不确定性代理的进一步检验表明,投资者有限的注意力和更大的估值不确定性导致了异常回报。此外,我发现库珀、葛兰和奥夫钦尼科夫(2010)发现的证据表明,企业通过赢得重大政府合同获得政治关系的财富效应;然而,即使在控制了这些联系之后,政府依赖的财富效应仍然很强。
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引用次数: 0
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Political Economy: Government Expenditures & Related Policies eJournal
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