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The COVID-19 Pandemic from the Perspective of Risk Theory (Pandemia COVID-19 z perspektywy teorii ryzyka) 风险理论视角下的COVID-19大流行(Pandemia COVID-19 z perspetywy teorii ryzyka)
Pub Date : 2021-05-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3859540
Andrzej Klimczuk
English Abstract: The article presents an overview of selected connections of the COVID-19 pandemic with risk theories. The study first explores the basic concepts of preparing and mobilizing networks of public policy actors to act together under conditions of uncertainty. The following section discusses the pandemic risk preparedness and fighting. Then, selected possible social, economic and political effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are discussed. In summary, recommendations regarding the public management in the further stages of the pandemic development and in the post-pandemic period were indicated, as well as proposals for further research directions.Polish Abstract: Artykuł zawiera przegląd wybranych powiązań pandemii COVID-19 z teoriami ryzyka. W pierwszej kolejności przedstawiono podstawowe pojęcia dotyczące przygotowania i mobilizowania sieci podmiotów polityki publicznej do wspólnych działań w warunkach niepewności. W dalszej części omówiono zagadnienie gotowości na ryzyko wystąpienia pandemii i jej zwalczania. Następnie przedstawiono wybrane możliwe efekty społeczne, gospodarcze i polityczne pandemii COVID-19. W podsumowaniu wskazane zostały rekomendacje dotyczące zarządzania podmiotami publicznymi na dalszych etapach rozwoju pandemii i w okresie po pandemii oraz propozycje dalszych kierunków badań.
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引用次数: 0
Municipal Bond Insurance and the U.S. Drinking Water Crisis 市政债券保险和美国饮用水危机
Pub Date : 2021-03-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3813348
Ashwini Agrawal, D. Kim
We show that the collapse of the municipal bond insurance industry plays an important, but previously overlooked, role in driving regional variation in U.S. drinking water pollution. Public water infrastructure has traditionally been financed using municipal debt partly backed by a small number of monoline insurers. Starting in the 1990’s, some--but not all--of these insurers began insuring structured financial products unrelated to water infrastructure. We show that after these products crashed in value in 2007, municipalities that were more reliant on relationships with adversely affected insurers faced higher borrowing costs. These municipalities then reduced their borrowing and scaled back investments in water infrastructure, leading to increased water pollution. The data suggest that market failures in the municipal bond insurance industry explain 32% of the relative rise in U.S. drinking water pollution since 2007.
我们表明,市政债券保险业的崩溃在推动美国饮用水污染的区域差异方面起着重要的作用,但以前被忽视了。传统上,公共供水基础设施的资金来源是由少数单一险种保险公司提供部分担保的市政债务。从20世纪90年代开始,这些保险公司中的一些(但不是全部)开始为与水利基础设施无关的结构性金融产品提供保险。我们的研究表明,在2007年这些产品的价值暴跌之后,那些更依赖于与受到不利影响的保险公司建立关系的市政当局面临着更高的借贷成本。这些市政当局随后减少了借贷,缩减了对水利基础设施的投资,导致水污染加剧。数据显示,市政债券保险业的市场失灵可以解释自2007年以来美国饮用水污染相对上升32%的原因。
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引用次数: 2
Private Markets, Infrastructure and Venture Capital in the Post-COVID Era: The Pension Perspective 后covid时代的私人市场、基础设施和风险投资:养老金视角
Pub Date : 2021-03-18 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3806645
David Weeks, M. Nicolas J. Firzli
This second of a series of seven papers co-authored by M. Nicolas J. Firzli and David Weeks looks at the notions of private markets – PE, VC, private debt and infrastructure – and the "quest for yields" in a low interest rates environment, which where discussed at two recent global conferences organised by the G7 Pensions Summit (G7 P7) and the Singapore Economic Forum (SEF). ESG, impact investing, renewable energy and the notion of green growth are also discussed by the co-authors and other experts, including the Hon. Nick Sherry, fmr. AUS minister of Superannuation & Corporate Law, Nick Silver, chairman, Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI), Michael Dennis, Head, APAC, Alternatives & Cap. Markets, BlackRock, Dr Guan Seng Khoo, Singapore Management University (SMU) and Ingrid Edmund, Columbia Threadneedle Investments (CTI)The notion of financial long-term-ism is considered from the perspective of institutional asset owners, notably in the US, Britain and the European Union (EU), where "pension fund regulation and the structure of the industry [often] puts a premium on liquidity and causes short-termism, at the expense of long-term investment and patient capital.”Australia has seen much interest in privatisation of public functions/assets. This has increased opportunities for private investment in infrastructure. It has, however, raised political discussion about the correct pricing of “monopoly assets”, such as large regional airports and water utilities.The authors also look at some of the recent developments in Canada, China, India and various ASEAN jurisdictions, including Singapore and assess the role played by the city-state in a complex period: "the COVID crisis has accelerated the mutually reinforcing effects of the Age of Empowerment (ESG, Equity and Entrepreneurship/the Venture Capitalist Ethos), the Age of Geoeconomics (intensifying Sino-American coopetition) and Datafied World Economy (Digitalization, Ai, Cybernetics), and Singapore is positioned precisely at the crossroads where these three powerful currents meet.”Some of the financial and geo-economic aspects of the "Post Brexit" era are also analysed. The authors note that HM Government has invited four key maritime powers to join the 47th G7 summit held in Carbis Bay, Cornwall later in the year: Australia, South Korea, India and South Africa, thus "bringing the blue economy to the fore of the global policy agenda".
这是由尼古拉斯·j·菲尔兹利和大卫·维克斯共同撰写的七篇系列论文中的第二篇,探讨了私人市场的概念——私募股权、风险投资、私人债务和基础设施——以及在低利率环境下“追求收益”的问题,这些问题在最近由七国集团养老金峰会(G7 P7)和新加坡经济论坛(SEF)组织的两次全球会议上进行了讨论。ESG、影响力投资、可再生能源和绿色增长的概念也由合著者和其他专家进行了讨论。澳大利亚退休金和公司法部长,气候债券倡议(CBI)主席Nick Silver,贝莱德(BlackRock)亚太区另类投资和Cap市场主管Michael Dennis,新加坡管理大学(SMU) Guan Seng Khoo博士和哥伦比亚针线投资公司(CTI) Ingrid Edmund从机构资产所有者的角度考虑金融长期主义的概念,特别是在美国,英国和欧盟(EU)。“养老基金的监管和行业结构(经常)让流动性溢价,导致短期主义,以牺牲长期投资和耐心资本为代价。”澳大利亚对公共职能/资产的私有化很感兴趣。这增加了私人投资基础设施的机会。然而,它引发了有关“垄断资产”(如大型地区性机场和水务公司)正确定价的政治讨论。作者还研究了加拿大、中国、印度和包括新加坡在内的东盟各司法管辖区的一些最新发展,并评估了这个城市国家在一个复杂时期所扮演的角色:“新冠肺炎危机加速了赋权时代(ESG、公平和创业/风险资本精神)、地缘经济时代(加强中美合作)和数据化世界经济(数字化、人工智能、控制论)的相互强化效应,而新加坡恰恰处于这三股强大潮流交汇的十字路口。”文章还分析了“后英国脱欧”时代的一些金融和地缘经济方面的问题。作者指出,英国政府已邀请四个主要海洋大国参加今年晚些时候在康沃尔郡卡比斯湾举行的第47届G7峰会:澳大利亚、韩国、印度和南非,从而“将蓝色经济置于全球政策议程的前列”。
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引用次数: 0
Tenders and Bid'N in US Federal Public Procurement Markets: Foreign Suppliers and Sub-Contractors playing a Game of Snakes and Ladders? 美国联邦政府采购市场的招投标:外国供应商和分包商在玩蛇梯游戏?
Pub Date : 2021-02-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3797322
Sandeep Verma
This law brief analyses the impact on foreign suppliers and sub-contractors of recent changes made to the US federal public procurement landscape especially by the new Administration, through new changes to the Federal Acquisition Regulation as well as some recent Executive Officers.
本法律简要分析了最近美国联邦公共采购领域的变化对外国供应商和分包商的影响,特别是新一届政府通过联邦采购条例的新变化以及一些最近的行政官员。
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引用次数: 0
Crime, Correction, Education and Welfare – What Role Does the Government Play? 犯罪、矫正、教育和福利——政府扮演什么角色?
Pub Date : 2021-02-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3509381
Jose Aranzazu, D. Hazra
This paper compares the effectiveness of the impact of government spending on welfare and education with that of law enforcement and correction on crime rate. Using data from fifty US States across a time period of 1994-2014, linear regression with Beck and Katz (1995) panel corrected standard errors reveals that public welfare and education spending can potentially lower violent and property crime rates but law enforcement spending can only deter property crime. However, correctional spending can corroborate both types of crimes. Further, results of two-step GMM estimation confirm the crime-reducing impact of welfare spending but not that of education or law enforcement spending. This results in the policy implication that more resources be allocated towards welfare programs. We also find little to no evidence of the presence of crowding out of one category of spending by another.
本文比较了政府支出对福利和教育的影响与执法和矫正对犯罪率的影响的有效性。使用1994-2014年间美国50个州的数据,Beck和Katz(1995)小组修正标准误差的线性回归显示,公共福利和教育支出可能会降低暴力和财产犯罪率,但执法支出只能阻止财产犯罪。然而,惩教支出可以证实这两种类型的犯罪。此外,两步GMM估计的结果证实了福利支出减少犯罪的影响,而不是教育或执法支出的影响。这就导致了更多资源被分配给福利项目的政策暗示。我们还发现,几乎没有证据表明存在一种支出类别被另一种支出类别挤出的现象。
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引用次数: 1
Disastrous Discretion: Ambiguous Decision Situations Foster Political Favoritism 灾难性的自由裁量权:模棱两可的决策情况会助长政治偏袒
Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3786196
Stephan A. Schneider, Sven Kunze
Allocation decisions are vulnerable to political influence, but it is unclear in which situations politicians use their discretionary power in a partisan manner. We analyze the allocation of presidential disaster declarations in the United States, exploiting the spatiotemporal randomness of all hurricane strikes from 1965–2018. We show that biased declaration behavior is not politically affordable if a disaster is either very strong or weak, when relief provision is clearly necessary or not. However, in ambiguous situations, after medium-intensity hurricanes, presidents favor areas governed by their co-partisans. Our nonlinear estimations demonstrate that this hump-shaped alignment bias exceeds average estimates up to eightfold.
分配决策容易受到政治影响,但目前尚不清楚政治家在哪些情况下以党派方式使用他们的自由裁量权。我们利用1965年至2018年期间所有飓风袭击的时空随机性,分析了美国总统灾害声明的分配情况。我们表明,如果灾难非常强烈或微弱,当救济提供显然是必要的或不必要的时候,有偏见的申报行为在政治上是不可承受的。然而,在中等强度飓风过后的模棱两可的情况下,总统倾向于由他们的共同党派统治的地区。我们的非线性估计表明,这种驼峰形的对准偏差超过平均估计高达8倍。
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引用次数: 3
Keep Calm and Do Nothing - Trading Behavior of Swedish Retirement Investors during the COVID-19 Pandemic 保持冷静,什么都不做——COVID-19大流行期间瑞典退休投资者的交易行为
Pub Date : 2021-01-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3775036
Johannes Hagen, Amedeus Malisa, Thomas Post
How did investors in the Swedish Premium Pension System (PPS) react to the stock markets shock ignited in 2020 by the COVID-19 pandemic? The share of investors that traded more than doubled, and trades shifted capital from equity funds to low risk interest funds. In economic terms, however, trading activity stayed at very low levels—less than two percent of investors traded in March 2020 and there was no effect on pension withdrawals. Given the vast evidence on retail investors’ strongly increasing trading volume in crisis times, the reaction of PPS investors looks surprisingly smart, i.e., avoiding the many mistakes that investors incur when they try to outsmart the market. Potentially, the often-criticized choice architecture of the PPS that induces strong inertia provided positive side effects in times of a severe market shock.
瑞典高级养老金制度(PPS)的投资者如何应对2020年COVID-19大流行引发的股市冲击?交易的投资者比例增加了一倍以上,交易将资金从股票基金转移到低风险利率基金。然而,从经济角度来看,交易活动保持在非常低的水平——2020年3月,只有不到2%的投资者进行交易,对养老金提取没有影响。鉴于大量证据表明,散户投资者在危机时期的交易量大幅增加,PPS投资者的反应看起来出奇地聪明,也就是说,他们避免了投资者在试图超越市场时所犯的许多错误。潜在地,PPS的选择架构经常受到批评,它会导致强烈的惯性,在严重的市场冲击时期提供了积极的副作用。
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引用次数: 1
Социально-экономические эффекты образования: анализ данных стран ОЭСР и России.(Socio-economic effects of education: analysis of data from OECD countries and Russia)
Pub Date : 2021-01-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3888971
Mark Agranovich, A. Dreneva, Yulia Ermachkova, Marina Livenets, I. Seliverstova
Russian Abstract:В докладе на данных международной статистики анализируются взаимосвязи между индикаторами образования и социально-экономическими показателями На основе анализа международных баз данных и обзора литературных источников сформированы гипотезы о взаимосвязи показателей образовательных систем и эффектов образования для общества, экономики и отдельного человека, выбраны методы анализа отобранные показатели для анализа. English Abstract:The report analyzes the relationship between educational and socio-economic indicators using international statistics. Based on the analysis of international databases and a review of literary sources, hypotheses about the relationship between the indicators of educational systems and the effects of education for society, the economy and the individual are formed, methods of analysis are selected, indicators for analysis were chosen.
报告利用国际统计数据分析了教育指标与社会经济指标之间的关系。 在分析国际数据库和文献综述的基础上,形成了关于教育系统指标与教育对社会、经济和个人的影响之间关系的假设,选择了分析方法,并对选定的指标进行了分析。英文摘要:报告利用国际统计数据分析了教育指标与社会经济指标之间的关系。在分析国际数据库和查阅文献资料的基础上,形成了关于教育系统指标与教育对社会、经济和个人的影响之间关系的假设,选择了分析方法和分析指标。
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引用次数: 0
Stakeholder Management in Public Procurement: Rethinking the Engagement Strategy for Co-Financing in Rivers State, Nigeria 公共采购中的利益相关者管理:重新思考尼日利亚河流州共同融资的参与战略
Pub Date : 2020-12-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3758216
S. Warmate
In Nigeria, there are many cases of failed public procurements resulting in undue delay or abandonment of projects, especially those wholly funded by the government, even in projects under co-financing arrangements with the Multilateral Development Institutions (MDIs). This anomaly is prevalent whenever an opposition party takes over the government because the political elites who originally support the projects lose interest or power. These failed projects represent a monumental loss to the public.

The MDIs, recognizing these political elites as stakeholders and understanding the intricacies of governance within the Nigerian context, apply their stakeholder engagement guidelines to engage this category of stakeholders to ensure that the government fulfils its obligations and responsibilities assigned in projects under co-financing arrangements. Sadly, the implementation of these guidelines is not monitored and evaluated on an ongoing basis within the procurement life cycle of these projects. Ideally, the guidelines for stakeholder engagement and management should be implemented from conceptualization to delivery of the project. Additionally, these guidelines do not anticipate the complex dynamics associated with changes of government, when existing priorities and policies are altered because of shifting interests. Often these interests affect the commitment of the government to carry out its obligation under these projects, particularly in cases where the government is required to provide counterpart funding, pay compensation, and provide other resources – and so the changes frustrate project implementation. Oddly, it may appear as though the MDIs, regardless of the time spent operating in Nigeria, do not anticipate political interference and policy inconsistencies whenever there is a change of government, for the MDIs have not adapted their stakeholder engagement strategies sufficiently to meet the ever-present political risk.

To meet these challenges, rethinking the stakeholder engagement strategy has become critical so that development projects will be delivered in a timely manner for the people’s benefit. The political risks that lead to abandoned projects mean that MDIs should increase the level of monitoring and evaluation and move away from co-financing agreements with the Nigerian states unless such co-financing arrangements allow for counterpart funds to be sourced directly from the Federal Government, which is also a principal party in financing agreement between states and the MDIs and which could mitigate project political risks at the state level.
在尼日利亚,有许多公共采购失败的案例,导致项目的不当拖延或放弃,特别是那些完全由政府资助的项目,即使是在与多边发展机构(MDIs)共同融资安排下的项目。每当反对党执政时,这种反常现象就会普遍存在,因为原本支持这些项目的政治精英们失去了兴趣或权力。这些失败的项目对公众来说是巨大的损失。MDIs认识到这些政治精英是利益相关者,并了解尼日利亚背景下治理的复杂性,应用其利益相关者参与指南来吸引这类利益相关者,以确保政府履行在共同融资安排下的项目中分配的义务和责任。遗憾的是,在这些项目的采购生命周期内,没有对这些准则的执行情况进行持续的监测和评价。理想情况下,涉众参与和管理的指导方针应该从项目的概念化到交付实现。此外,当现有的优先事项和政策因利益转移而改变时,这些指导方针没有预料到与政府变化相关的复杂动态。这些利益往往会影响政府在这些项目下履行其义务的承诺,特别是在政府被要求提供配套资金、支付赔偿和提供其他资源的情况下,因此这些变化会阻碍项目的实施。奇怪的是,似乎MDIs,不管在尼日利亚运作了多长时间,都没有预料到政府更迭时的政治干预和政策不一致,因为MDIs没有充分调整其利益相关者参与策略,以满足始终存在的政治风险。为了应对这些挑战,重新思考利益相关者参与战略变得至关重要,这样发展项目才能及时交付,造福人民。导致放弃项目的政治风险意味着多边发展机构应提高监测和评估水平,并避免与尼日利亚各州达成联合融资协议,除非这种联合融资安排允许直接从联邦政府获得对应资金,因为联邦政府也是各州与多边发展机构之间融资协议的主要当事方,这可以减轻州一级的项目政治风险。
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引用次数: 0
A Budget-Beneficiary Analysis of the National Social Assistance Program in Respect to the Social Sector of India 印度社会部门国家社会援助计划的预算收益分析
Pub Date : 2020-11-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3737651
Abhilasha Kotwal
The National Social Assistance Programme (NSAP) is a foundational social sector scheme of India. The growth of the tertiary or services sector in India is a unique example of pushing ahead traditional models of economic growth. Today 73 years later, the growth of the service sector has contributed 61.5% to the GDP. The paper aims to study the growth of the social sector schemes with a focus on budget allocation and beneficiary analysis under NSAP and to offer an assessment of the best and worst performed component of the NSAP. The research after presenting a detailed analysis of NSAP's performance in the social sector and the performance of individual schemes under NSAP, points out certain identified issues concerning NSAP showing a way forward.
国家社会援助方案(NSAP)是印度社会部门的一项基础计划。印度第三产业或服务业的增长是推动传统经济增长模式的一个独特例子。73年后的今天,服务业增长对GDP的贡献率达到61.5%。本文旨在研究社会部门计划的增长,重点关注NSAP下的预算分配和受益人分析,并对NSAP中表现最好和最差的组成部分进行评估。在详细分析了国家新方案在社会部门的表现和国家新方案下的个别方案的表现之后,该研究指出了与国家新方案有关的某些已确定的问题,并指出了前进的方向。
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引用次数: 0
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Political Economy: Government Expenditures & Related Policies eJournal
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