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Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Each Totalization Agreement 估算每项总化协议的宏观经济效应
Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3885758
Ananth Seshadri, Junjie Guo
Totalization agreements coordinate the United States Social Security program with other countries’ comparable programs. We estimate each totalization agreement’s impact on a variety of bilateral trade outcomes. We find the impact is quite heterogeneous, both across agreements/countries and across sectors within a country. Moreover, we find agreements that entered into force more recently tend to increase total imports and decrease total exports by more than earlier agreements. We find no significant relationship between totalization agreements’ estimated impacts and economic indicators such as the trade complementarity index between the U.S. and the agreement countries. Finally, we find sectors where the U.S. has a larger revealed comparative advantage relative to the agreement country tend to experience a larger increase in exports following the totalization agreement. However, there is no significant relationship between revealed comparative advantage and the estimated impact on imports across sectors. In future work, we will investigate in more detail both the correlation between the heterogeneity across sectors within a country and the heterogeneity across countries, as well as the correlation between totalization agreements and the declining U.S. trade balance in the past few decades.
总合协议协调了美国的社会保障计划与其他国家的可比计划。我们估计了每个总化协议对各种双边贸易结果的影响。我们发现,无论是在不同的协议/国家之间,还是在一个国家的不同部门之间,这种影响都是相当不同的。此外,我们发现最近生效的协定往往比以前的协定更多地增加总进口和减少总出口。我们发现,总化协定的估计影响与美国与协定国之间的贸易互补性指数等经济指标之间没有显著的关系。最后,我们发现美国相对于协定国具有更大的显性比较优势的部门,在总体化协议后往往会经历更大的出口增长。然而,显示的比较优势与对各部门进口的估计影响之间没有显著的关系。在未来的工作中,我们将更详细地研究一个国家内部跨部门异质性与国家间异质性之间的相关性,以及过去几十年里总化协议与美国贸易平衡下降之间的相关性。
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引用次数: 1
A Biased Firm in a Market with Complementary Products. A Note on the Welfare Effects 互补产品市场中的偏差企业。福利效应札记
Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12236
Clemens Buchen, Alberto Palermo
We analyse a duopoly setting with complementary products, in which a firm has a bias about its absolute advantage. We show that the bias can internalize parts of the negative externality that the complementarity of goods creates implying a higher producer's surplus. Moreover, we analyse additional conditions, which lead to an increase in the consumer's surplus. Counterintuitively, we show that the presence of a bias can lead to a positive welfare effect.
我们分析了具有互补产品的双寡头环境,在这种环境中,企业对其绝对优势有偏见。我们表明,这种偏见可以内化部分负外部性,即商品的互补性创造了更高的生产者剩余。此外,我们还分析了导致消费者剩余增加的附加条件。与直觉相反,我们证明了偏见的存在会导致积极的福利效应。
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引用次数: 1
Poor Targeting? Targeting the Poor? Redistribution in the Hungarian Welfare System by Age and Socio-Economic Status 可怜的目标呢?针对穷人?匈牙利福利制度按年龄和社会经济地位的再分配
Pub Date : 2020-08-25 DOI: 10.1111/SPOL.12653
R. Gál, Márton Medgyesi
In line with previous research, we confirm that welfare programs in Hungary are poorly targeted in terms of socio-economic status (SES). However, by adding age to our models, we demonstrate that even if the status is irrelevant in explaining access to social benefits and services, age is not. Applying simple regression techniques, we compare both the theoretical importance (based on regression coefficients) and the dispersion importance (using Shapley-value decomposition of the R2) of age and SES in explaining the receipt of and contributions to both in-kind and in-cash benefits at the level of the general government in Hungary. We conclude that what appears to be a dysfunctional instrument in alleviating poverty and inequality in a univariate model is actually a channel of resource reallocation that connects working-age people to children and to the elderly when the model includes two predictors.
与之前的研究一致,我们确认匈牙利的福利计划在社会经济地位(SES)方面的针对性很差。然而,通过在我们的模型中加入年龄,我们证明,即使社会地位与解释获得社会福利和服务无关,年龄也不是。运用简单的回归技术,我们比较了年龄和社会经济地位的理论重要性(基于回归系数)和离散重要性(使用R2的shapley值分解),以解释匈牙利一般政府层面的实物和现金福利的接收和贡献。我们的结论是,在单变量模型中,似乎是减轻贫困和不平等的功能失调的工具,实际上是一个资源再分配的渠道,当模型包含两个预测因素时,它将工作年龄的人与儿童和老年人联系起来。
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引用次数: 1
The Decline in Public Investment: 'Social Dominance' or Too-Rigid Fiscal Rules? 公共投资下降:“社会主导”还是过于僵化的财政规则?
Pub Date : 2020-08-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3666800
M. Delgado-Téllez, Esther Gordo Mora, Iván Kataryniuk, Javier J. Pérez
Public investment in advanced economies is at historical lows, and shows a declining trend since at least the 1980s. Two main hypotheses have been posed to rationalize this fact. On the one hand, the “social dominance hypothesis” claims that this is related to structural factors, given the upward social expenditure trends related to ageing populations and social preferences, and the operation of the government budget constraint (limits to further increase significantly tax revenues and public debt, in a context of secular stagnation). On the other hand, another branch of the literature indicates that too-rigid fiscal rule frameworks cause fiscal retrenchment episodes to hinge heavily on public capital expenditure, which does not recover enough in the subsequent expansion, creating a sort of downward hysteresis behaviour in this budgetary item. In this paper we look jointly at both sets of duelling explanatory factors, and show that both are key to understanding public investment dynamics in advanced economies over the past decades.
发达经济体的公共投资正处于历史低点,而且至少自上世纪80年代以来一直呈下降趋势。人们提出了两个主要假设来合理化这一事实。一方面,“社会主导假说”认为,这与结构性因素有关,因为与人口老龄化和社会偏好相关的社会支出上升趋势,以及政府预算约束的运作(在长期停滞的背景下,进一步大幅增加税收和公共债务的限制)。另一方面,文献的另一个分支表明,过于严格的财政规则框架导致财政紧缩事件严重依赖于公共资本支出,而公共资本支出在随后的扩张中没有得到足够的恢复,从而在该预算项目中产生了一种向下的滞后行为。在本文中,我们共同研究了这两组令人信服的解释因素,并表明它们都是理解过去几十年发达经济体公共投资动态的关键。
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引用次数: 40
The Global State of Health Care System 全球卫生保健系统状况
Pub Date : 2020-07-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3663356
Professor Kelly Kingsly
Globally, health care has recently known indisputable challenges. Even the strongest nations have seen their supposedly strong health systems crush down. No health organisation has been left un-disrupted with the coming of Covid-19. If even the mighty have fallen what becomes of the weak?

African countries at independence were organized and financed by governments which provided facilities, personnel and other inputs. By the 1980s, however economic downturn and the embrace of international monetary fund loans with stringent conditionality meant that many governments had to cut public spending on infrastructure and services, including healthcare and education. Consequently, many African governments stopped subsidizing public services and began implementing various costs – recovery measures in public services. The cost recovery era witnessed the introduction of OOP (out-of-pocket) for healthcare services, public water supply and consumables in schools. Thus, since the 1980s and 1990s, OOP by individuals and households have accounted for a larger scale of healthcare expenditure in many African countries of sub-Saharan Africa (1). These payments popularly known as user-fees or the ‘cash and carry’ health system in Ghana are known for raising the cost of healthcare, thus making it un-affordable for a large number of the population. In many sub-Saharan countries, governments rank healthcare relatively low among development priorities (2). For this reason, insufficient resources are allocated to healthcare, including drugs; which is often financed OOP (3)

Healthcare statistics in sub-Sahara Africa are generally poor. For example, although the region makes up only 11 per cent, of the world’s population; it accounts for é’ per cent of the global disease burden and commands less than 1 per cent of global expenditure (4). Although the WHP suggests thresholds of OOP for health as a guarantee of adequate financial protection is in the region of 15-20 per cent, residents of many African countries spend more (5). For example, OOP spending on health was between 27 – 37 per cent in Ghana in 2012 about 52 per cent in Kenya, 6405-70 per cent in Nigeria in the 1998 – 2008 period: while in South Africa, the government contributes about 42 per cent of all expenditures on health. The remaining 58 per cent is paid by private sources insurance premiums and OOP.

The United Nations recommends minimum required budgetary allocation to health is 15 per cent, many African countries fall below this minimum in their budgetary allocations. In 2007 more than half of the 53 African countries spent less than $50 per person (as average) on health (6). Of the total expenditure, 30 per cent came from governments, 20 per cent from donors and 50 per cent from private sources of which 71 per cent was paid by patients themselves, the so-called out-of-pocket-payments.

The dire picture of the healthcare system in the world and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa de
在全球范围内,卫生保健最近面临着无可争辩的挑战。即使是最强大的国家也看到了他们本应强大的卫生系统崩溃。没有一个卫生组织能不受Covid-19到来的影响。如果连强者都倒下了,弱者将何去何从?独立时的非洲国家是由政府组织和资助的,政府提供设施、人员和其他投入。然而,到了上世纪80年代,经济衰退和接受国际货币基金组织(imf)带有严格条件的贷款,意味着许多政府不得不削减基础设施和服务(包括医疗和教育)方面的公共支出。因此,许多非洲国家政府停止了对公共服务的补贴,并开始在公共服务领域实施各种成本回收措施。在成本回收时代,医疗保健服务、公共供水和学校消耗品采用了自费支付模式。因此,自20世纪80年代和90年代以来,在撒哈拉以南非洲的许多非洲国家,个人和家庭的OOP占了更大规模的医疗保健支出(1)。这些支付通常被称为用户费用或加纳的“现付自付”医疗系统,以提高医疗保健成本而闻名,从而使大量人口负担不起。在许多撒哈拉以南的国家,政府将医疗保健排在发展重点的较低位置(2)。因此,分配给医疗保健(包括药品)的资源不足;(3)撒哈拉以南非洲的医疗统计数据普遍较差。例如,尽管该地区仅占世界人口的11%;它占e的每分钱的全球疾病负担和命令不到全球1%的支出(4)。尽管OOP的流泪表明阈值对健康的保证足够的金融保护是在该地区的15 - 20分,许多非洲国家的居民花更多的(5)。例如,OOP卫生开支是2012年在加纳27 - 37%约52%在肯尼亚,尼日利亚6405 - 70在1998 - 2008年期间:而在南非,政府提供了约42%的保健支出。其余的58%由私人来源支付保险费和OOP。联合国建议对保健的最低要求预算拨款为15%,但许多非洲国家的预算拨款低于这一最低要求。2007年,53个非洲国家中有一半以上的国家(平均)人均卫生支出不足50美元(6)。在总支出中,30%来自政府,20%来自捐助者,50%来自私人来源,其中71%由患者自己支付,即所谓的自付付款。上文所述的世界卫生系统,特别是撒哈拉以南非洲地区卫生系统的糟糕状况,加上非洲作为“低收入”地区的地位,贫困是获得卫生保健的主要障碍,这凸显了重新思考卫生系统的必要性。要谈论医疗保健系统,我们必须首先考虑组成这个系统的要素。如果目标是拥有更好的卫生系统,那么必须审查构成该系统的各个要素。知道什么是过去,什么是未来,这将是向前迈出的一大步。
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引用次数: 1
Foreign Aid, Public Investment, and the Informal Economy 外国援助、公共投资和非正规经济
Pub Date : 2020-07-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3661581
S. Chatterjee, Mark C. Kelly, S. Turnovsky
This paper uses a two-sector open economy model to examine the dynamic absorption of foreign aid in the presence of both formal and informal production. Calibrating the model to yield a long-run equilibrium consistent with sample averages for 72 aid-recipient developing countries for the period 1990-2017, we show that an increase in foreign aid impacts the sectoral composition of the recipient economy, driving resources into the informal sector, and away from the formal sector. Further, if aid is untied (say, provided for general budget support), then the expansion of the informal sector can lead to a contraction of the aggregate economy through the Dutch Disease effect. If the recipient government’s objective is to drive an economic expansion by increasing the share of formal production, then re-allocating existing aid to public investment is more effective than an increase in the aggregate level of aid.
本文采用一个两部门开放经济模型,考察了在正规生产和非正规生产两种情况下,外援的动态吸收。我们对模型进行了校准,得出了与1990年至2017年期间72个发展中受援国样本平均值一致的长期均衡,结果表明,外援的增加影响了受援国经济的部门构成,推动资源流入非正规部门,远离正规部门。此外,如果援助不加限制(例如,为一般预算支助提供援助),那么非正规部门的扩张可能通过荷兰病效应导致总体经济收缩。如果受援国政府的目标是通过增加正式生产的份额来推动经济扩张,那么将现有援助重新分配给公共投资比增加援助总额更有效。
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引用次数: 4
Transport Infrastructure and House Prices in the Long Run 交通基础设施和长期房价
Pub Date : 2020-07-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3649487
Sefa Awaworyi Churchill, Kingsley Tetteh Baako, K. Mintah, Quanda Zhang
Abstract We examine the effects of transport infrastructure on house prices in the OECD countries over the period 1870 to 2016. We employ both parametric and non-parametric panel data techniques that account for the non-linear and time-varying relationship between transport infrastructure and house prices. Our parametric results, which are based on newly developed panel data models that incorporate interactive fixed effects, suggest that transport infrastructure is positively associated with house prices. The non-parametric estimates suggest a time-varying relationship and that the average positive effect of transport infrastructure has been the case for most of the period we study. We also examine three channels through which transport infrastructure could influence house prices – economic growth, employment, and crime – and find that economic growth is a mechanism through which transport infrastructure transmits to house prices.
摘要:我们研究了1870年至2016年期间经合组织国家交通基础设施对房价的影响。我们采用参数和非参数面板数据技术来解释交通基础设施和房价之间的非线性和时变关系。我们的参数化结果基于新开发的面板数据模型,其中包含了互动固定效应,表明交通基础设施与房价呈正相关。非参数估计表明了一种随时间变化的关系,并且在我们研究的大部分时期,交通基础设施的平均积极影响都是如此。我们还研究了交通基础设施可能影响房价的三个渠道——经济增长、就业和犯罪——并发现经济增长是交通基础设施传导到房价的机制。
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引用次数: 9
Healthcare Transparency in the Age of COVID-19 COVID-19时代的医疗透明度
Pub Date : 2020-06-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3698753
J. O’Shea
In addition to causing widespread morbidity and mortality, the COVID-19 pandemic has transformed everyday life and has placed an enormous burden on a US healthcare system for which rising costs were already a major concern. Well before the current crisis, there was wide recognition of the need for greater healthcare price transparency in the United States as a way to promote competition, reduced spending, and a more efficient allocation of resources. The additional demands of the COVID-19 pandemic have accentuated the need for policymakers to take this opportunity to advance healthcare transparency as well as give consumers incentives to use the newly available information to make better healthcare choices. There are short-term measures that can be taken even as the medical impact of COVID-19 is being brought under control. More importantly, longer-term structural reform of the current insurance-based financing system is needed in order to alleviate the stress on the healthcare system and obviate the need for government intervention.
除了造成广泛的发病率和死亡率外,COVID-19大流行还改变了人们的日常生活,给美国医疗保健系统带来了巨大的负担,而成本上升已经是美国医疗保健系统的一个主要问题。早在当前危机之前,人们就广泛认识到,美国需要提高医疗保健价格的透明度,以促进竞争、减少支出和更有效地分配资源。COVID-19大流行带来的额外需求凸显了政策制定者需要借此机会提高医疗透明度,并激励消费者利用新获得的信息做出更好的医疗保健选择。即使在COVID-19的医疗影响得到控制的同时,也可以采取一些短期措施。更重要的是,需要对当前以保险为基础的融资体系进行长期结构性改革,以减轻医疗体系的压力,避免政府干预的需要。
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引用次数: 0
Distributional Effect of Pension Reform: Pension Benefit Reduction and Housing Market in China 养老金改革的分配效应:养老金福利减少与中国住房市场
Pub Date : 2020-06-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3635101
Lu Xu
This paper studies the impact of pension reduction on the housing price and wealth distribution in China. We first set up a simple model, conceptually predicting that a pension reduction will boost the housing price and reduce housing wealth inequality. To get a full picture of the impact of pension reduction, we set up a stochastic OLG model with the housing market to quantitatively examine the long term effect of pension benefit reduction on the housing market and welfare redistribution in China. The policy experiment shows that a reduction of replacement ratio from 0.7 to 0.45 will produce a rise in housing price by 14%. Quantitatively the housing price rise is contributed by four main channels: direct channels, the non-housing asset price channel, the tax rate channel, the bequest channel. We also checked the response of the cohort-wise housing wealth distribution and finds out that housing wealth distribution is more equal after the pension reduction. We finally examined the effect of a pension benefit reduction on welfare redistribution and finds out the policy change generated interesting implications on welfare and wealth redistribution across households with different income, asset levels, and age.
本文研究了养老金削减对中国房价和财富分配的影响。我们首先建立了一个简单的模型,从概念上预测养老金减少将提高房价并减少住房财富不平等。为了更全面地了解养老金削减的影响,我们建立了一个基于住房市场的随机OLG模型,定量考察了养老金削减对中国住房市场和福利再分配的长期影响。政策实验表明,置换率从0.7降低到0.45,房价将上涨14%。从数量上看,房价上涨主要有四个渠道:直接渠道、非住房资产价格渠道、税率渠道和遗赠渠道。我们还检验了住房财富分配的响应,发现养老金减少后住房财富分配更加平等。我们最后研究了养老金福利减少对福利再分配的影响,并发现政策变化对不同收入、资产水平和年龄的家庭的福利和财富再分配产生了有趣的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Do Public Program Benefits Crowd Out Private Transfers in Developing Countries? A Critical Review of Recent Evidence 发展中国家的公共项目福利会排挤私人转移支付吗?对近期证据的批判性回顾
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.1049679
P. Nikolov, Matthew Bonci
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引用次数: 11
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Political Economy: Government Expenditures & Related Policies eJournal
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