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Comparison Between a Closed and an Open Economy with NDC Pension Scheme and Imperfect Labor Market 基于NDC养老金制度和不完善劳动力市场的开放与封闭经济比较
Pub Date : 2020-11-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3794540
Leran Wang
Wang (2018) elucidates the relationship between NDC pension and fertility in a two-period OLG model of a small open economy with an imperfect labor market. What if the analysis is conducted in a closed economy? This study demonstrates an economic comparison between a closed and open economy with NDC pension scheme and unemployment due to efficiency wage by building up a similar model in a closed economy and compares the welfare between two scenarios. The results show that the small open economy displays much higher welfare compared to the closed one, no matter whether the NDC account rate is endogenous or exogenous.
Wang(2018)在一个劳动力市场不完善的小型开放经济体的两期OLG模型中阐述了NDC养老金与生育率之间的关系。如果分析是在一个封闭的经济体中进行的呢?本研究通过在封闭经济中建立类似的模型,对封闭经济和开放经济中NDC养老金计划和效率工资导致的失业进行了经济比较,并比较了两种情况下的福利。结果表明,无论是内生的还是外生的NDC账户率,小型开放经济体都比封闭经济体表现出更高的福利。
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引用次数: 1
The Legal Status of the Guarantees for the MEP Pension Fund 职工养老保险基金担保的法律地位
Pub Date : 2020-11-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3739504
H. V. Meerten
This report focuses on the voluntary and complementary pension Fund (hereafter: the Fund) for Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and specifically whether the guarantee that was given by the EuropeanParliament (EP) to uphold all rights of members of the Fund (theguarantee) can be legally upheld in the light of EU Law and national applicable Law.
本报告的重点是欧洲议会(MEPs)成员的自愿和补充养老基金(以下简称:基金),特别是欧洲议会(EP)为维护基金成员的所有权利而提供的保证(担保)是否可以在欧盟法律和国家适用法律的基础上得到合法维护。
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引用次数: 0
Modelo Black-Litterman con Support Vector Regression: una alternativa para los fondos de pensiones obligatorios colombianos (Black-Litterman Model With Support Vector Regression: An Alternative for Colombian Pension Funds) 支持向量回归的Black-Litterman模型:哥伦比亚养老基金的另一种选择
Pub Date : 2020-11-04 DOI: 10.18601/17941113.n18.06
Julián Andrés Buriticá-Mejía
Spanish abstract: El modelo pensional colombiano se caracteriza por ser intergeneracional, ra¬zón por la cual se ha visto afectado por tres grandes problemas estructurales: inequidad, baja cobertura e insostenibilidad financiera. Frente a este panora¬ma, el Estado ha reaccionado con medidas de tipo normativo que han aliviado algunos de estos problemas; sin embargo, estas regulaciones prudenciales han impactado la finalidad inherente a un fondo de inversión, es decir, la generación de riqueza para garantizar el consumo intertemporal de la población colombia¬na en edad de retiro. En consecuencia, los fondos de pensiones en Colombia requieren que, bajo el marco de las diferentes regulaciones, se estudien nuevas alternativas de estructuración de sus portafolios que les permitan un eficiente manejo de los recursos de retiro para su población. En este sentido, se creó una frontera y un portafolio eficientes mediante la aplicación de Support Vector Machine sobre el modelo Black-Litterman para los fondos de pensiones obligatorios colombianos, con el fin de comprobar la utili¬dad de los algoritmos de aprendizaje en los diferentes ámbitos financieros. Los resultados muestran que es posible su aplicabilidad al modelo de estructuración de portafolios Black-Litterman mediante mejoras a la matriz de las distribucio¬nes a priori, puntualmente con el uso de Support Vector Regression, que generó portafolios mejor diversificados frente al modelo media varianza de Markowitz, y que son adaptables a los fondos de pensiones obligatorios colombianos.

English abstract: The Colombian pension model is characterized by being intergenerational, reason why it has been affected by three major structural problems: inequality, low coverage and financial unsustainability, to which the Colombian government has reacted with regulatory measures that have somewhat relieved these problems. However, these prudential regulations have a negative effect on the inherent purpose of the investment fund, which is the generation of wealth to guarantee the intertemporal consumption of the Colombian elderly population. Therefore, the pension funds in Colombia requires that under the framework of the stablished regulations, new alternatives for structuring their portfolios be studied that allow them into better and more efficient management of retirement resources for Colombian people. In this sense, an efficient portfolio and frontier were built through a Support Vector Machine and the Black Litterman model to the Colombian Mandatory Pension Funds, with the aim to test the applicability of machine learning in financial fields. Results show that its applicability to the Black-Litterman portfolio structuring model is suitable through the improvement to the a priori distribution matrix, specifically with the use of Support Vector Regression, the model generated better diversified portfolios in comparison to the Markowitz model and shows to be adaptable to the Colombian Mandat
摘要:本文分析了哥伦比亚养老金模式的特点是代际差异,并受到三个主要结构性问题的影响:不平等、覆盖面低和财政不可持续性。在这种情况下,国家采取了监管措施,缓解了其中一些问题;然而,这些审慎监管影响了投资基金的内在目的,即创造财富,以确保哥伦比亚退休年龄人口的跨期消费。因此,哥伦比亚的养恤基金要求在不同条例的框架内,研究结构其投资组合的新办法,使它们能够有效地管理其人口的退休资源。在这个意义上,我们通过在Black-Litterman模型上应用支持向量机为哥伦比亚强制性养老基金创建了一个有效的边界和投资组合,以验证学习算法在不同金融领域的使用。调查结果表明,这是可能的结构模型的适用性公文包Black-Litterman通过改善矩阵distribucio¬学院乍一看,及时使用支持向量Regression,对面最好了公文包多样化模型半Markowitz的实际开支之外,哥伦比亚适应性是强制性养恤基金。英文摘要:哥伦比亚养恤金模式的特点是代际的,这就是为什么它受到三个主要结构性问题的影响:不平等、覆盖率低和财务不可持续性,哥伦比亚政府对此采取了监管措施,这些措施在一定程度上缓解了这些问题。然而,这些审慎监管对投资基金的内在目的,即创造财富以保证哥伦比亚老年人的跨期消费,产生了负面影响。因此,哥伦比亚的养恤基金要求在《稳定条例》框架内,研究构建其投资组合的新办法,使它们能够更好、更有效地管理哥伦比亚人民的退休资源。在这方面,通过支持向量机和哥伦比亚强制性养恤基金的Black Litterman模型建立了一个有效的投资组合和边界,目的是测试机器学习在金融领域的适用性。结果显示,its applicability to the Black-Litterman组合源于model is至关through the改进to the事先distribution matrix、特别是with the use of Support Regression向量,the model generated better diversified的Markowitz model and》比较适应节目to be to the派的养老金基金。
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引用次数: 1
Government Expenditure and Regional Economic Growth: The Direction of Causality 政府支出与区域经济增长:因果关系的走向
Pub Date : 2020-10-27 DOI: 10.9734/ajeba/2020/v18i430289
naftaly mose
This study examines the link between government expenditure and regional economic growth, over the period 2013 to 2017. Gross County Product per capita growth is used as indicator of regional economic growth. This study used Error Correction Model and Engle and Granger framework two step procedure to investigate the long-run and short-run equilibrium relationship between expenditure and regional growth. The analysis reveals that expenditure and regional growth are cointegrated and, hence a long-run equilibrium relationship exist between them. Non-devolved expenditure is found to be significant in determining regional growth and growth significantly affect non-devolved in short-run. Further, short-run uni-directional causality was detected between capital, recurrent expenditures and growth. This study argues that expansionary government expenditure accelerates regional economic growth in long-run. The absence of a long-run causality moving from growth to components of expenditure implies that economic growth macroeconomic policies can be implemented without adversely affecting the size of government expenditure.
本研究考察了2013年至2017年期间政府支出与区域经济增长之间的联系。县域人均生产总值增长作为区域经济增长的指标。本研究采用误差修正模型和Engle & Granger框架两步法考察了支出与区域增长之间的长期和短期均衡关系。分析表明,支出与区域增长是协整的,两者之间存在长期均衡关系。研究发现,非权力下放支出在决定地区增长方面具有重要作用,而增长在短期内会显著影响非权力下放支出。此外,在资本、经常性支出和增长之间发现了短期单向因果关系。本文认为,从长期来看,扩张性政府支出对区域经济增长具有促进作用。缺乏从增长到支出组成的长期因果关系意味着经济增长宏观经济政策可以在不对政府支出规模产生不利影响的情况下实施。
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引用次数: 3
Medicaid and Provider Supply 医疗补助和供应商供应
Pub Date : 2020-10-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2853882
J. Huh
One of the main goals of public health insurance expansions is to increase access to health care services, but doing so may require providers to move to previously underserved areas. Whether and to what extent any such relocation occurs remains an open question. I study how providers choose their practice locations in response to Medicaid expansions for one of the most common forms of primary care, dental care services. I find that expansions of adult Medicaid dental benefits between 2006-2013 increased dentist counts per capita in poor counties relative to non-poor counties by 12 percent, or 2.6 dentists per 100,000 population. The increase was larger in counties where the expansions generated greater financial incentives for dentists.
扩大公共健康保险的主要目标之一是增加获得保健服务的机会,但这样做可能需要提供者转移到以前服务不足的地区。是否以及在何种程度上发生这种重新安置仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。我研究提供者如何选择他们的实践地点,以应对医疗补助扩大最常见的初级保健形式之一,牙科保健服务。我发现,2006年至2013年间,成人医疗补助牙科福利的扩大,使贫困县的人均牙医数量比非贫困县增加了12%,即每10万人中有2.6名牙医。在那些扩张为牙医带来更大经济激励的县,这一增长幅度更大。
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引用次数: 7
Inside Debt and Firm Risk‐Taking: Evidence from the UK Pension Reform 内部债务和企业风险承担:来自英国养老金改革的证据
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12492
Hau Li, Jinsha Zhao
This paper provides new evidence on the relation between CEO inside debt and firm risk‐taking by exploiting the change in the tax treatment of UK pensions following two pension amendments. The 2006 pension reform introduces the annual and lifetime allowance for UK pension schemes, significantly increasing income taxes associated with CEO inside debt. The 2011 allowance cut, which substantially reduces the annual allowance introduced in 2006, further increases income taxes on inside debt. We find that CEO inside debt, in the form of executive pensions declines after the 2006 reform while cash‐in‐lieu increases significantly. This effect is more severe after the 2011 allowance cut than the 2006 pension reform. UK firms appear to substitute away from pensions towards cash‐in‐lieu, where income taxes are less punishing. If the association between CEO inside debt and firm risk‐taking is causal, we should observe a change of risk‐taking after the decline of inside debt. Our results, which exploit the exogenous nature of the reforms, show that the decline of CEO pensions does not lead to any change in firm risk‐taking. This result suggests that no causal relationship exists between CEO inside debt and firm risk‐taking. Our results extend the inside debt literature, where empirical evidence is mainly documented in the US. Contrary to findings in the US, our evidence suggests that the use of CEO inside debt is motivated to minimise income tax rather than a tool to moderate firm risk.
本文通过利用两次养老金修正案后英国养老金税收待遇的变化,为CEO内部债务与公司风险承担之间的关系提供了新的证据。2006年的养老金改革为英国养老金计划引入了年度和终身津贴,显著增加了与首席执行官内部债务相关的所得税。2011年的免税额削减大幅削减了2006年推出的年度免税额,进一步提高了内部债务的所得税。我们发现,2006年改革后,CEO内部债务(以高管养老金的形式)下降,而现金替代显著增加。这种影响在2011年削减津贴后比2006年养老金改革后更为严重。英国公司似乎从养老金转向现金替代,因为那里的所得税惩罚较轻。如果CEO内部债务与企业风险承担之间存在因果关系,那么我们应该观察到内部债务下降后风险承担的变化。我们的研究结果利用了改革的外生性质,表明CEO养老金的下降不会导致企业风险承担的任何变化。这一结果表明CEO内部债务与企业风险承担之间不存在因果关系。我们的结果扩展了内部债务文献,其中经验证据主要记录在美国。与美国的研究结果相反,我们的证据表明,使用CEO内部债务的动机是最大限度地减少所得税,而不是一种缓和公司风险的工具。
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引用次数: 3
Discipline, Stability, and Sustainability in Venezuelan Public Finance 委内瑞拉公共财政的纪律、稳定和可持续性
Pub Date : 2020-09-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3698440
M. A. Moreno, Santiago Sosa, Luis Zambrano Sequín
The objective of the proposal of a system of fiscal rules for Venezuela is twofold: to achieve the stabilization and sustainability of public finances, and to provide foundations for policies aimed at restoring the country’s basic macroeconomic balances and a sustained medium and long-term growth path. Before presenting such system, we offer an overview of the current state of the subject on fiscal rules and – being Venezuela an oil country – focus on their main aspects and restrictions in natural resource economies. To evaluate the proposed system of fiscal rules, we calibrate and simulate a tailored model for the Venezuelan case and perform the estimations in the context of likely short and medium-term macroeconomic scenarios. The results of the exercise allow us to infer its feasibility and convenience if the fiscal rules proposed are implemented after a process of fiscal consolidation and restoration of basic macroeconomic equilibria.
委内瑞拉财政规则制度提案的目标是双重的:实现公共财政的稳定和可持续性,并为旨在恢复该国基本宏观经济平衡和持续的中期和长期增长道路的政策提供基础。在介绍这种制度之前,我们概述了财政规则的现状,并且-委内瑞拉是一个石油国家-重点关注其在自然资源经济中的主要方面和限制。为了评估拟议的财政规则体系,我们针对委内瑞拉的情况校准和模拟了一个量身定制的模型,并在可能的短期和中期宏观经济情景背景下进行了估计。如果提出的财政规则是在财政整顿和恢复基本宏观经济平衡的过程之后实施的,那么这项工作的结果使我们能够推断其可行性和便利性。
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引用次数: 0
Nigerian Universities and their Sustainability: Challenges and Way Forward 尼日利亚大学及其可持续性:挑战与前进之路
Pub Date : 2020-09-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3695789
N. J. Ogunode
This paper highlights the concept, characteristics, and the importance of University education in the development and production of manpower for the socio-political and economic advancement of the nation. The paper also discusses the various challenges confronting the University education in Nigeria which range from lack of sound strategic plan, poor leadership, ineffective teaching and learning, poor researching activities, inadequate infrastructure facilities, poor funding, unfavorable internal and international outlook or reputation (staff, students, and research), academic corruption and fraud, low international ranking and lack of modern laboratories. The paper, therefore, recommended that government should increase the funding of the Universities education to enable the administrators of Universities in Nigeria to provide necessary infrastructural facilities needed by the Universities, more funds should also be allocated to the research program of the Universities to enable them to carry out researches while academic corruption and fraud should be fought to the grass root by the enactment of the signing of riot act of academic ethics.
本文着重阐述了大学教育的概念、特点以及大学教育在人力资源开发和生产中对国家社会政治和经济发展的重要作用。本文还讨论了尼日利亚大学教育面临的各种挑战,包括缺乏健全的战略计划、领导能力差、教学和学习效率低下、研究活动不足、基础设施不足、资金不足、不利的国内和国际前景或声誉(员工、学生和研究)、学术腐败和欺诈、低国际排名和缺乏现代实验室。因此,本文建议政府应该增加大学教育的资金,使尼日利亚大学的管理人员能够提供大学所需的必要基础设施,还应该为大学的研究项目分配更多的资金,使他们能够开展研究,而学术腐败和欺诈应该通过制定签署学术道德行为来打击到基层。
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引用次数: 8
Public Expenditure for Education and Economic Growth in Vietnam 越南教育和经济增长的公共支出
Pub Date : 2020-09-04 DOI: 10.7176/jesd/11-6-06
B. Dao
This research provides empirical evidence of impact of public expenditure for education on economic growth in Vietnam from 2000 to 2015. In addition, effect of human capital quality is also attacted into the research to examine its impact on economic growth. Specifically, for relating performance of government expenditure for education, we choose enrolment number of pre-primary school, enrolment number of primary school, enrolment number of lower secondary school, enrolment of upper secondary school, percentage of high school graduation as education’s performance. Moreover, we aslo estimate the impact of percentage of government expenditure of GDP for health on GDP growth. Firstly, we estimate the relationship of government capital and regular expenditure for education, its performance mentioned above and human capital quality (HDI as proxy). Secondly, we test the impact of all explanatories of model 1 including HDI plus percentage of government expenditure of GDP for health on GDP growth. Consequently, the first model shows that enrolment number of pre-primary school and regular government spending for education have positive relationship with HDI, whereas, capital spending for education shows negative relationship. For the second model, enrolment number of lower secondary school, enrolment number of primary school, capital expenditure of public budget for education, and HDI are related positively to GDP growth. On the other hand, enrolment number of pre-primary school, percentage of high school graduation, and regular spending for education move negatively way with GDP growth. Keywords : HDI, government expenditure, GDP growth, enrolment DOI: 10.7176/JESD/11-6-06 Publication date: March 31 st 2020
本研究提供了2000 - 2015年越南公共教育支出对经济增长影响的实证证据。此外,本文还研究了人力资本质量对经济增长的影响。具体而言,为了与政府教育支出绩效相关,我们选择学前入学率、小学入学率、初中入学率、高中入学率、高中毕业率作为教育绩效。此外,我们还估计了政府卫生支出占GDP的百分比对GDP增长的影响。首先,我们估算了政府资本与教育经常性支出、教育经常性支出绩效和人力资本质量(HDI)之间的关系。其次,我们检验了模型1的所有解释,包括HDI加上政府卫生支出占GDP的百分比对GDP增长的影响。因此,第一个模型表明,学前入学率和政府经常性教育支出与HDI呈正相关,而教育资本支出与HDI呈负相关。在第二种模型中,初中入学人数、小学入学人数、公共教育预算资本支出、HDI与GDP增长呈正相关。另一方面,学前教育入学率、高中毕业率和经常性教育支出与GDP增长呈负相关。关键词:人类发展指数,政府支出,GDP增长,招生DOI: 10.7176/JESD/11-6-06出版日期:2020年3月31日
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引用次数: 1
Left Behind Voters, Anti-Elitism and Popular Will 落后选民、反精英主义与民意
Pub Date : 2020-09-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3688799
Benoît S. Y. Crutzen, D. Sisak, O. Swank
Two common characteristics of populism are anti-elitism and favoring popular will over expertise. The recent successes of populists are often attributed to the common people, the majority of voters, being left behind by mainstream parties. This paper shows that the two characteristics of populism are responses to the common people being left behind. We develop a model that highlights two forces behind electoral success: numbers and knowledge. Numbers give the common people an electoral advantage, knowledge the elite. We show that electoral competition may lead parties to cater to the elites interest, creating a left-behind majority. Next, we identify conditions under which a left-behind majority encourages entry by a party offering an anti-elite platform. Finally, we identify conditions under which parties follow the opinion of the common people when that group would benefit from parties relying on experts.
民粹主义的两个共同特征是反精英主义和支持民意而不是专业知识。民粹主义者最近的成功往往归因于普通民众,即大多数选民,被主流政党抛在了后面。本文认为,民粹主义的两个特征是对平民落后的回应。我们开发了一个模型,突出了选举成功背后的两股力量:数字和知识。数字给普通人带来选举优势,知识给精英带来优势。我们表明,选举竞争可能导致政党迎合精英的利益,创造一个落后的多数。接下来,我们确定留守多数鼓励提供反精英平台的政党进入的条件。最后,我们确定了各方遵循普通人意见的条件,当该群体将受益于依赖专家的各方时。
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引用次数: 1
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Political Economy: Government Expenditures & Related Policies eJournal
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