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Dietary changes could compensate for potential yield reductions upon global river flow protection 饮食变化可以弥补全球河流流量保护可能导致的产量下降
IF 5.5 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2022-07-11 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2022.12
J. Braun, F. Stenzel, B. Bodirsky, M. Jalava, D. Gerten
Non-technical summary Globally, freshwater systems are degrading due to excessive water withdrawals. We estimate that if rivers’ environmental flow requirements were protected, the associated decrease in irrigation water availability would reduce global yields by ~5%. As one option to increase food supply within limited water resources, we show that dietary changes toward less livestock products could compensate for this effect. If all currently grown edible feed was directly consumed by humans, we estimate that global food supply would even increase by 19%. We thus provide evidence that dietary changes are an important strategy to harmonize river flow protection with sustained food supply. Technical summary To protect global freshwater ecosystems and restore their integrity, freshwater withdrawals could be restricted to maintain rivers' environmental flow requirements (EFRs). However, without further measures, reduced irrigation water availability would decrease crop yields and put additional pressure on global food provision. By comparing the quantitative effects of both global EFR protection and dietary changes on regional and global food supply in a spatially explicit modeling framework, we show that dietary changes toward less livestock products could effectively contribute to solving this trade-off. Results indicate that protection of EFRs would almost halve current global irrigation water withdrawals and reduce global crop yields by 5%. Limiting animal protein share to 25, 12.5 and 0% of total protein supply and shifting released crop feed to direct human consumption could however increase global food supply by 4, 11 and 19%, respectively. The effects are geographically decoupled: water-scarce regions such as the Middle East, or South and Central Asia would be most affected by EFR protection, whereas dietary changes are most effective in North America and Europe. This underpins the disproportionally high responsibilities of countries with resource-intensive diets and the need for regionally adapted and diverse strategies to transform the global food system toward sustainability. Social media summary Combining dietary changes and global river flow protection could contribute to a more sustainable food system.
非技术性摘要在全球范围内,淡水系统因过度取水而退化。我们估计,如果河流的环境流量需求得到保护,灌溉水可用性的相关下降将使全球产量下降约5%。作为在有限的水资源范围内增加粮食供应的一种选择,我们表明,减少畜产品的饮食变化可以弥补这种影响。如果目前种植的所有可食用饲料都被人类直接食用,我们估计全球粮食供应甚至会增加19%。因此,我们提供了证据,证明改变饮食是协调河流流量保护和持续粮食供应的重要战略。技术摘要为了保护全球淡水生态系统并恢复其完整性,可以限制淡水抽取,以维持河流的环境流量要求。然而,如果不采取进一步措施,灌溉水供应量的减少将降低作物产量,并给全球粮食供应带来额外压力。通过在一个空间明确的建模框架中比较全球EFR保护和饮食变化对区域和全球粮食供应的定量影响,我们表明,朝着减少畜产品的方向改变饮食可以有效地帮助解决这种权衡。结果表明,EFR的保护将使目前全球灌溉用水量几乎减半,并使全球作物产量减少5%。然而,将动物蛋白质份额限制在总蛋白质供应的25%、12.5%和0%,并将释放的作物饲料转移到人类直接消费,可能会使全球粮食供应分别增加4%、11%和19%。这种影响在地理上是脱钩的:中东、南亚和中亚等缺水地区受EFR保护的影响最大,而北美和欧洲的饮食变化最为有效。这就决定了资源密集型饮食国家承担着不成比例的高责任,需要采取区域适应和多样化的战略,将全球粮食系统转变为可持续性。社交媒体摘要将饮食变化和全球河流流量保护相结合,有助于建立一个更可持续的粮食系统。
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引用次数: 0
Transformative climate policy mainstreaming – engaging the political and the personal 变革性气候政策主流化——参与政治和个人
IF 5.5 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2022-06-21 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2022.11
C. Wamsler, G. Osberg
Non-technical summary Mainstreaming climate objectives into sectoral work and policies is widely advocated as the way forward for sustainable public–private action. However, current knowledge on effective climate mainstreaming has rarely translated into policy outcomes and radical, transformational change. This ‘implementation gap’ relates to the limitations of current approaches, which do not adequately address so-called ‘internal’ or ‘personal’ spheres of transformation. Here, we address this gap and provide an integrative climate mainstreaming framework for improving and guiding future sustainability research, education, policy and practice. Technical summary Current knowledge on what makes climate mainstreaming effective has, so far, seldom translated into policy outcomes and radical, transformational change. This ‘implementation gap’ is related to the limitations of current approaches. The latter tend to focus on isolated, highly tangible, but essentially weak leverage points that do not adequately link practical and political solutions with ‘internal’ or ‘personal’ spheres of transformation. This link involves an internal (mindset/consciousness) shift leading to long-lasting changes in the way that we experience and relate to our self, others, the world and future generations. It requires unleashing people's internal potential and capacity to care, commit to, and effect change for a more sustainable life across individual, collective, organisational and system levels. To address this gap, we analyse how such internal dimensions can be integrated into climate mainstreaming, to move beyond its current, partial focus on external and technological solutions. Through a robust investigation of how to scale up climate mainstreaming in a more transformative manner, we explore how mainstreaming and conscious full-spectrum theories can be related to fundamentally advance the field and improve current approaches. The resulting integrative framework breaks new ground by linking the mainstreaming of climate considerations and internal dimensions across all spheres of transformation. We conclude with some policy recommendations and future research needs. Social media summary Linking climate policy integration/mainstreaming and personal development: an integrative framework.
将气候目标纳入部门工作和政策主流被广泛提倡为可持续公私行动的前进方向。然而,目前关于有效的气候主流化的知识很少转化为政策成果和根本性的转型变革。这种“实施差距”与当前方法的局限性有关,这些方法没有充分解决所谓的“内部”或“个人”转型领域。在这里,我们解决了这一差距,并提供了一个综合的气候主流化框架,以改进和指导未来的可持续发展研究、教育、政策和实践。到目前为止,关于气候主流化的有效性的现有知识很少转化为政策成果和根本性的转型变革。这种“实施差距”与当前方法的局限性有关。后者往往侧重于孤立的、高度有形的、但本质上薄弱的杠杆点,这些杠杆点没有充分地将实际和政治解决方案与“内部”或“个人”转型领域联系起来。这种联系涉及到一种内在的(心态/意识)转变,导致我们与自己、他人、世界和后代的体验和联系方式的长期变化。它要求释放人们的内在潜力和能力,在个人、集体、组织和系统各级关心、致力于和影响变革,以实现更可持续的生活。为了解决这一差距,我们分析了如何将这些内部维度纳入气候主流化,以超越目前对外部和技术解决方案的部分关注。通过对如何以更具变革性的方式扩大气候主流化的强有力调查,我们探索了主流化和有意识的全谱理论如何与从根本上推进该领域和改进现有方法相关联。由此产生的综合框架通过将气候考虑的主流化与转型所有领域的内部维度联系起来,开辟了新的领域。最后提出了政策建议和未来的研究需求。将气候政策整合/主流化与个人发展联系起来:一个综合框架。
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引用次数: 5
Network leadership for transformative capacity development: roles, practices and challenges 变革能力发展的网络领导力:角色、实践和挑战
IF 5.5 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2022-05-05 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2022.6
T. Strasser, J. de Kraker, R. Kemp
Non-technical summary A wide variety of social innovations exist today that offer urgently needed pathways for transforming societal systems into more just, sustainable and regenerative ways of organising human existence on this planet. However, a more systematic and practically useful understanding is needed of how individuals and organisations can strengthen the transformative capacity of people working on connecting, spreading, maturing and structurally embedding these innovations. This study presents an updated conceptual framework of network leadership roles and practices, and describes how these can contribute to more widespread, systemic and lasting impact of social innovations. Technical summary This study tests and refines a conceptual framework, describing the roles and practices of network leadership that can support the development of transformative capacities, in the context of social innovation networks. Such capacities include spreading social innovations in wider society, embedding them in policy and public discourse, and generating continuity and further development of social innovation activities. We studied five cases of transnational social innovation networks involving community-led and student-led sustainability initiatives. Practitioners in these networks were asked to rate and comment on the perceived recognisability and importance of network leadership roles and practices, as well as challenges, which we articulated in a previous study and further developed in the current study through participant observation and document analyses. This resulted in a revision of the roles and practices, the identification of relations between roles and a better understanding of how they can contribute to transformative capacity development. The interviews also helped to clarify the practical usefulness of the framework, suggesting possible applications for evaluating, prioritising and aligning roles performed by various individuals and organisations. The findings are relevant for better understanding and guiding distributed agency in transformative social innovation networks. Social media summary Roles and practices for network leadership to enable more widespread, systemic and lasting impact of social innovation.
今天存在着各种各样的社会创新,为将社会制度转变为更公正、可持续和可再生的组织人类在这个星球上生存的方式提供了迫切需要的途径。然而,对于个人和组织如何加强致力于连接、传播、成熟和在结构上嵌入这些创新的人们的变革能力,需要有一个更系统、更实用的理解。本研究提出了网络领导角色和实践的最新概念框架,并描述了这些角色和实践如何有助于社会创新产生更广泛、更系统和更持久的影响。本研究测试并完善了一个概念框架,描述了在社会创新网络背景下,能够支持变革能力发展的网络领导力的角色和实践。这种能力包括在更广泛的社会中传播社会创新,将其纳入政策和公共话语,并使社会创新活动得以延续和进一步发展。我们研究了五个涉及社区主导和学生主导的可持续发展倡议的跨国社会创新网络案例。这些网络中的从业者被要求对网络领导角色和实践的可识别性和重要性以及挑战进行评级和评论,我们在之前的研究中阐述了这一点,并在当前的研究中通过参与者观察和文件分析进一步发展。这导致了对角色和实践的修订,角色之间关系的确定以及对它们如何有助于变革能力发展的更好理解。访谈还有助于澄清该框架的实际用途,建议对不同个人和组织所扮演的角色进行评估、优先排序和协调的可能应用。研究结果对更好地理解和指导变革型社会创新网络中的分布式代理具有重要意义。社交媒体总结网络领导力的角色和实践,以使社会创新产生更广泛、系统和持久的影响。
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引用次数: 6
Social vulnerability, social-ecological resilience and coastal governance. 社会脆弱性、社会生态复原力与沿海治理。
IF 5.5 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2022-05-02 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2022.10
Javad Jozaei, Wen-Ching Chuang, Craig R Allen, Ahjond Garmestani

Non-technical summary: Our analysis shows that the framing of social vulnerability is shaped by a narrow definition of resilience, focusing on post-disaster return and recovery responses. This perspective does not account for the dynamism and non-stationarity of social-ecological systems (SES) which is becoming increasingly important in the face of accelerating environmental change. Incorporating social-ecological resilience into social vulnerability analysis can improve coastal governance by accounting for adaptation and transformation, as well as scale and cross-scale interactions.

Technical summary: Social vulnerability analysis has been unable to deliver outcomes that reflect the reality of vulnerability and its consequences in an era characterised by accelerating environmental change. In this work, we used critical discourse analysis and key informant interviews to understand different framings of social vulnerability in coastal governance and management, globally and in New Zealand. We found that the framing of system vulnerability could vary depending on the definition of resilience adopted, which has critical ramifications for coastal governance of linked systems of humans and nature. We found that the framing of social vulnerability in coastal governance is mainly influenced by engineering, community and disaster resilience, focusing on return and recovery governance responses to environmental change (e.g. hurricanes, wildfires). Instead, we suggest a novel perspective based on social-ecological resilience, which more accurately reflects the dynamics of linked systems of humans and nature (SES). This revised perspective, general vulnerability, accounts for the dynamics of Earth's systems across various spatial and temporal scales in the face of accelerating environmental change. Accounting for social-ecological resilience and its core aspects (i.e. panarchy, adaptation and transformation) is essential for informing coastal governance of SES (Do we adapt? or Do we transform the SES?).

Social media summary: Social-ecological resilience is essential for social vulnerability analysis in the face of accelerating environmental change.

非技术总结:我们的分析表明,社会脆弱性的框架是由一个狭义的弹性定义塑造的,重点是灾后回归和恢复响应。这种观点没有考虑到社会生态系统的动态性和非平稳性,而面对加速的环境变化,社会生态系统正变得越来越重要。将社会生态弹性纳入社会脆弱性分析可以通过考虑适应和转型以及规模和跨规模的相互作用来改善沿海治理。技术摘要:在一个以环境加速变化为特征的时代,社会脆弱性分析无法提供反映脆弱性现实及其后果的结果。在这项工作中,我们使用批判性话语分析和关键信息提供者访谈来了解全球和新西兰沿海治理和管理中社会脆弱性的不同框架。我们发现,系统脆弱性的框架可能因所采用的弹性定义而异,这对人类和自然联系系统的沿海治理具有重要影响。研究发现,沿海治理中的社会脆弱性框架主要受工程、社区和灾害复原力的影响,重点关注对环境变化(如飓风、野火)的回归和恢复治理响应。相反,我们提出了一种基于社会生态弹性的新观点,它更准确地反映了人与自然联系系统(SES)的动态。这一修订后的观点,即一般脆弱性,解释了面对加速的环境变化,地球系统在不同时空尺度上的动态。考虑社会生态弹性及其核心方面(即层级制、适应和转型)对于为SES的沿海治理提供信息至关重要(我们适应吗?或者我们要改造SES吗?)摘要:面对加速的环境变化,社会生态弹性对于社会脆弱性分析至关重要。
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引用次数: 10
Make nature's role visible to achieve the SDGs 让自然在实现可持续发展目标中的作用显而易见
IF 5.5 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2022-04-22 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2022.5
D. Hole, Pamela Collins, A. Tesfaw, Lina Barrera, Michael B. Mascia, W. Turner
Non-technical summary Implicit in the UN's Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Agenda is the notion that environmental sustainability is intertwined with, and underpins, the 17 Goals. Yet the language of the Goals, and their Targets and indicators is blind to the myriad ways in which nature supports people's health and wealth – which we argue represents a key impediment to progress. Using examples of nature–human wellbeing linkages, we assess the language of all 169 Targets to identify urgent research, policy, and action needed to spotlight and leverage nature's foundational role, to help enable truly sustainable development for all. Technical summary Nature's foundational role in helping achieve the SDGs is implicit rather than explicit in the language of SDGs Goals, Targets, and indicators. Drawing from the scientific literature describing how nature underpins human wellbeing, we carry out a systematic assessment of the language of all 169 Targets, categorizing which Targets are dependent upon nature for their achievement, could harm nature if attained through business-as-usual actions, or may synergistically benefit nature through their attainment. We find that half are dependent upon nature for their achievement – yet for more than two-thirds of those nature's role goes unstated and risks being downplayed or ignored. Moreover, while achieving the overwhelming majority of the 169 Targets could potentially benefit nature, more than 60% are likely to deliver ‘mixed outcomes’ – benefitting or harming nature depending on how they're achieved. Furthermore, of the 241 official indicators <5% track nature's role in achieving the parent Target. Our analysis provides insights important for increasing effectiveness across the SDG agenda regarding where to invest, how to enhance synergies and limit unanticipated impacts, and how to measure success. It also suggests a path for integrating the ‘nature that people need’ to achieve the SDGs into the CBD's post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. Social media summary Harmonizing links between the SDGs and the CBD's post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework is vital for promoting sustainable development
联合国可持续发展目标(SDG)议程中隐含的概念是,环境可持续性与17个目标交织在一起,并成为其基础。然而,千年发展目标及其具体目标和指标的语言忽视了大自然支持人类健康和财富的无数方式——我们认为这是进步的主要障碍。通过举例说明自然与人类福祉之间的联系,我们对所有169项具体目标的语言进行了评估,以确定迫切需要开展的研究、政策和行动,以突出和利用自然的基础作用,帮助实现真正的人人享有可持续发展。在可持续发展目标、具体目标和指标的语言中,自然在帮助实现可持续发展目标方面的基础作用是隐性的,而不是明确的。根据描述自然如何支撑人类福祉的科学文献,我们对所有169个具体目标的语言进行了系统评估,对哪些具体目标的实现依赖于自然,哪些目标通过一切照旧的行动实现可能损害自然,哪些目标通过实现可能协同造福自然进行了分类。我们发现,一半的人的成就依赖于自然,但其中超过三分之二的人没有说明自然的作用,有被淡化或忽视的风险。此外,虽然实现169项具体目标中的绝大多数可能对自然有利,但超过60%的目标可能产生“好坏参半的结果”——对自然有利或有害,这取决于实现的方式。此外,在241个官方指标中,追踪自然在实现母目标方面作用的指标不足5%。我们的分析为提高整个可持续发展目标议程的有效性提供了重要见解,包括投资领域、如何增强协同效应和限制意外影响,以及如何衡量成功。它还提出了一条将实现可持续发展目标的“人类需要的自然”纳入《生物多样性公约》2020年后全球生物多样性框架的途径。协调可持续发展目标与《生物多样性公约》2020年后全球生物多样性框架之间的联系,对于促进可持续发展至关重要
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引用次数: 11
Key challenges to the corporate biosphere stewardship research program: inequity, reification, and stakeholder commensurability 企业生物圈管理研究计划面临的主要挑战:不公平、具体化和利益相关者的可公度
IF 5.5 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2022-04-04 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2022.8
S. Longo, Ellinor Isgren, Richard York
Non-Technical Summary Research on “corporate biosphere stewardship” and the related concept of “keystone actor” has proliferated in recent years. We scrutinize the program focusing on issues and assumptions associated with inequality, naturalizing social processes, or reification, and characterizing corporations as equivalent stakeholders in sustainable development with other actors and organizations. As a result, we argue the program does not promote the stated claim of transformative change for sustainability. We suggest that the research program should develop a deeper analysis of social dynamics, forces, and structures, based in social theory, particularly sociological work, which can help reveal common taken for granted assumptions. Technical Summary We highlight important assumptions associated with the research program in sustainability science developed around “corporate biosphere stewardship” and the promise of “science-business initiatives.” In doing so, we interrogate a central concept in this research, “keystone actors.” We analyze the program based on associated research outputs and communications, focusing on three key challenges 1) inequities related to the concentration of political-economic power 2) concerns with naturalizing social processes, or reification, and 3) the limitations of characterizing corporations as commensurable stakeholders in sustainable development. This research program has revealed some important conditions and dynamics in relation to consolidation and concentration in global industries. However, it has been limited by insufficient integration of knowledge from social science, particularly sociology. Thus, the approach tends to undertheorize social dynamics, processes, and structures. Despite being framed as an effort at “improving the prospects for transformative change,” the implications, outcomes, and recommendations that emerge from this research program may inadvertently promote increased control and power of elite actors by presenting an ostensible inevitability of corporate dominance for bringing about social welfare and sustainability. We suggest greater attention to social structural dynamics, and particularly social struggles and social movements, when considering the potential for transformational change for sustainability.
近年来,对“企业生物圈管理”和相关概念“关键行动者”的研究激增。我们仔细审查该计划,重点关注与不平等,自然化社会过程或具体化相关的问题和假设,并将公司定性为与其他参与者和组织在可持续发展中的同等利益相关者。因此,我们认为该计划并没有促进可持续性转型变革的声明。我们建议,研究计划应该基于社会理论,特别是社会学工作,对社会动态、力量和结构进行更深入的分析,这有助于揭示普遍被认为理所当然的假设。我们强调了与可持续发展科学研究项目相关的重要假设,这些研究项目围绕“企业生物圈管理”和“科学-商业倡议”的承诺展开。在这样做的过程中,我们在这项研究中询问了一个中心概念,“基石行动者”。我们根据相关的研究成果和交流来分析该计划,重点关注三个关键挑战:1)与政治经济权力集中相关的不平等;2)关注社会进程的归化或具体化;3)将公司定性为可持续发展中可通约的利益相关者的局限性。本研究揭示了全球产业整合和集中的一些重要条件和动态。然而,由于社会科学特别是社会学知识的整合不足,这一研究受到了限制。因此,这种方法倾向于将社会动态、过程和结构理论化。尽管被定义为“改善变革前景”的努力,但从这个研究项目中产生的含义、结果和建议可能会无意中促进精英行为者的控制和权力的增加,因为它呈现了企业主导带来社会福利和可持续性的表面必然性。我们建议在考虑可持续性转型变革的潜力时,更多地关注社会结构动态,特别是社会斗争和社会运动。
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引用次数: 1
Prosociality as response to slow- and fast-onset climate hazards 作为对缓慢和快速发生的气候危害的反应的积极性
IF 5.5 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2022-04-04 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2022.9
Ivo Steimanis, B. Vollan
Non-technical summary More and more people around the globe experience climate hazards. For vulnerable populations, these hazards not only cause significant physical damages, but can also affect the way people interact with each other. How such interactions are affected by climate hazards is particularly important for understanding the vulnerability of communities. Prosocial behavior is key for communities that heavily rely on informal social support to deal with these threats and for cooperative solutions to provide and maintain public goods. To investigate these effects, we talk to people living on the front lines of climate change and measure their prosociality using behavioral tasks. Our results show that both fast- and slow-onset hazards increase prosociality, underscoring the importance of well-functioning social relationships for dealing with hardship and uncertainty in a variety of contexts. Technical summary People's willingness to engage in prosocial behavior can affect how vulnerable and resilient populations are to climate hazards. We study how different types of climate hazards, fast-onsetting cyclones and slowly rising sea-levels, might affect peoples' prosociality using incentivized behavioral tasks. We sample people who are at the forefront of climate change and either experienced Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines (study 1; n = 378) or are from sea-level rise hotspots (study 2; n = 1047) in Solomon Islands, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. We experimentally manipulate the salience of these hazards through recall or informational videos. Results from study 1 show that increases in prosociality are (i) independent of whether supportive behaviors or conflicts are recalled, (ii) are not only targeted to a narrow in-group, and (iii) do not come with increases in antisocial behaviors. In study 2, we also find that people behave more prosocial when they are informed about the impacts of rising sea-levels. Our survey evidence suggests that people who already perceive the threat of displacement due to rising sea-levels are also more prosocial. Overall, peoples' responses to both types of hazards are geared toward collective action, which could strengthen their adaptive capacity to deal with climate risks. Social media summary People severely affected by sea-level rise and rapidly emerging climate hazards are responding with increases in prosocial behaviors to fellow villagers.
非技术性总结全球越来越多的人经历气候危害。对于弱势群体来说,这些危害不仅会造成严重的身体伤害,还会影响人们之间的互动方式。这种相互作用如何受到气候危害的影响,对于了解社区的脆弱性尤为重要。亲社会行为是严重依赖非正式社会支持来应对这些威胁的社区以及提供和维护公共产品的合作解决方案的关键。为了调查这些影响,我们与生活在气候变化前线的人们交谈,并使用行为任务来衡量他们的亲社会性。我们的研究结果表明,快速和缓慢发生的危险都会增加亲社会性,强调了良好运作的社会关系对于应对各种环境中的困难和不确定性的重要性。技术摘要人们参与亲社会行为的意愿会影响人口对气候危害的脆弱性和适应力。我们通过激励行为任务研究了不同类型的气候危害,如快速爆发的气旋和缓慢上升的海平面,可能会如何影响人们的亲社会性。我们对处于气候变化前沿的人进行了抽样,他们要么在菲律宾经历了台风海燕(研究1;n=378),要么来自所罗门群岛、孟加拉国和越南的海平面上升热点地区(研究2;n=1047)。我们通过回忆或信息视频来实验性地操纵这些危险的显著性。研究1的结果表明,亲社会性的增加(i)与支持行为或冲突是否被回忆无关,(ii)不仅针对少数群体,(iii)不伴随反社会行为的增加。在研究2中,我们还发现,当人们被告知海平面上升的影响时,他们表现得更亲社会。我们的调查证据表明,那些已经意识到海平面上升带来的流离失所威胁的人也更亲社会。总的来说,人们对这两种危险的反应都是以集体行动为导向的,这可以加强他们应对气候风险的适应能力。社交媒体摘要受海平面上升和迅速出现的气候危害严重影响的人们对村民的亲社会行为有所增加。
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引用次数: 2
Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and sustainability pathways 分析全球变化情景和可持续发展途径的多样化模型
IF 5.5 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2022-03-16 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2022.7
E. A. Moallemi, Lei Gao, S. Eker, B. Bryan
Non-technical summary Models are increasingly used to inform the transformation of human–Earth systems towards a sustainable future, aligned with the sustainable development goals (SDGs). We argue that a greater diversity of models ought to be used for sustainability analysis to better address complexity and uncertainty. We articulate the steps to model global change socioeconomic and climatic scenarios with new models. Through these steps, we generate new scenario projections using a human–Earth system dynamics model. Our modelling brings new insights about the sensitivity of sustainability trends to future uncertainty and their alignment with or divergence from previous model-based scenario projections. Technical summary The future uncertainty and complexity of alternative socioeconomic and climatic scenarios challenge the model-based analysis of sustainable development. Obtaining robust insights requires a systematic processing of uncertainty and complexity not only in input assumptions, but also in the diversity of model structures that simulates the multisectoral dynamics of human and Earth system interactions. Here, we implement the global change scenarios, that is, the shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways, in a feedback-rich, integrated assessment model (IAM) of human–Earth system dynamics, called FeliX, to serve two aims: (1) to provide modellers with well-defined steps for the adoption of established scenarios in new IAMs and (2) to explore the impacts of model uncertainty and its structural complexity on the projection of these scenarios for sustainable development. Our modelling shows internally consistent scenario storylines across sectors, yet with quantitatively different realisations of these scenarios compared to other IAMs due to the new model's structural complexity. The results highlight the importance of enumerating global change scenarios and their uncertainty exploration with a diversity of models of different input assumptions and structures to capture a wider variety of future possibilities and sustainability indicators. Social media summary New study highlights the importance of global change scenario analysis with new, SDG-focused IAMs.
非技术总结模型越来越多地用于为人类-地球系统向可持续未来的转变提供信息,与可持续发展目标(sdg)保持一致。我们认为,应该使用更多样化的模型进行可持续性分析,以更好地解决复杂性和不确定性。我们阐明了用新模型模拟全球变化、社会经济和气候情景的步骤。通过这些步骤,我们使用人类-地球系统动力学模型生成新的情景预测。我们的模型对可持续性趋势对未来不确定性的敏感性及其与以往基于模型的情景预测的一致性或差异性提出了新的见解。未来社会经济和气候情景的不确定性和复杂性对基于模式的可持续发展分析提出了挑战。获得可靠的见解需要系统地处理不确定性和复杂性,不仅在输入假设中,而且在模拟人类和地球系统相互作用的多部门动态的模型结构的多样性中。在此,我们将全球变化情景,即共享的社会经济路径和具有代表性的集中路径,在一个名为FeliX的人类-地球系统动力学的反馈丰富的综合评估模型(IAM)中实现,以实现两个目标:(1)为建模者提供在新的iam中采用已建立情景的明确步骤;(2)探索模式不确定性及其结构复杂性对这些情景对可持续发展的预测的影响。我们的模型显示了跨部门内部一致的情景故事情节,但由于新模型的结构复杂性,与其他iam相比,这些情景的定量实现不同。结果强调了列举全球变化情景及其不确定性探索的重要性,这些不确定性探索采用不同输入假设和结构的多样性模型,以获取更广泛的未来可能性和可持续性指标。一项新的研究强调了全球变化情景分析的重要性,新的、以可持续发展目标为重点的iam。
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引用次数: 11
Speeding up state-of-the-art assessments on global sustainability: introducing the Cambridge Sustainability Commissions 加速对全球可持续性进行最先进的评估:引入剑桥可持续发展委员会
IF 5.5 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2022-03-15 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2022.1
J. Rockström
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited. Speeding up state-of-the-art assessments on global sustainability: introducing the Cambridge Sustainability Commissions
©作者,2022。剑桥大学出版社出版。这是一篇开放获取的文章,在知识共享署名许可(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)的条款下分发,该许可允许不受限制的重复使用、分发和复制,前提是原始文章被适当引用。加快全球可持续发展的最新评估:引入剑桥可持续发展委员会
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引用次数: 0
Transformative conservation of ecosystems 生态系统的转型保护
IF 5.5 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2022-03-04 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2022.4
D. Fougères, Mike Jones, P. McElwee, Angela Andrade, S. Edwards
Non-technical summary Many conservation initiatives call for ‘transformative change’ to counter biodiversity loss, climate change, and injustice. The term connotes fundamental, broad, and durable changes to human relationships with nature. However, if oversimplified or overcomplicated, or not focused enough on power and the political action necessary for change, associated initiatives can perpetuate or exacerbate existing crises. This article aims to help practitioners deliberately catalyze and steer transformation processes. It provides a theoretically and practically grounded definition of ‘transformative conservation’, along with six strategic, interlocking recommendations. These cover systems pedagogy, political mobilization, inner transformation, as well as planning, action, and continual adjustment. Technical summary Calls for ‘transformative change’ point to the fundamental reorganization necessary for global conservation initiatives to stem ecological catastrophe. However, the concept risks being oversimplified or overcomplicated, and focusing too little on power and the political action necessary for change. Accordingly, its intersection with contemporary biodiversity and climate change mitigation initiatives needs explicit deliberation and clarification. This article advances the praxis of ‘transformative conservation’ as both (1) a desired process that rethinks the relationships between individuals, society, and nature, and restructures systems accordingly, and (2) a desired outcome that conserves biodiversity while justly transitioning to net zero emission economies and securing the sustainable and regenerative use of natural resources. It first reviews criticisms of area-based conservation targets, natural climate solutions, and nature-based solutions that are framed as transformative, including issues of ecological integrity, livelihoods, gender, equity, growth, power, participation, knowledge, and governance. It then substantiates six strategic recommendations designed to help practitioners deliberately steer transformation processes. These include taking a systems approach; partnering with political movements to achieve equitable and just transformation; linking societal with personal (‘inner’) transformation; updating how we plan; facilitating shifts from diagnosis and planning to action; and improving our ability to adjust to transformation as it occurs. Social media summary Curious about stemming the global biodiversity and climate crises? Browse this article on transformative conservation!
非技术性摘要许多保护倡议呼吁“变革性变革”,以应对生物多样性丧失、气候变化和不公正。这个术语意味着人类与自然关系的根本、广泛和持久的变化。然而,如果过于简单化或过于复杂,或者没有足够关注权力和变革所需的政治行动,相关举措可能会使现有危机永久化或加剧。本文旨在帮助从业者有意识地催化和引导转型过程。它为“变革性保护”提供了一个理论和实践基础的定义,以及六项战略性的、相互关联的建议。其中包括系统教育学、政治动员、内部变革以及规划、行动和持续调整。技术摘要呼吁“变革性变革”指出了全球保护举措所需的根本性重组,以遏制生态灾难。然而,这一概念可能过于简单化或过于复杂,对权力和变革所需的政治行动关注过少。因此,它与当代生物多样性和减缓气候变化倡议的交叉点需要明确的审议和澄清。本文提出了“变革性保护”的实践,即(1)一个重新思考个人、社会和自然之间关系的理想过程,并相应地重组系统;(2)一个保护生物多样性的理想结果,同时公正地过渡到净零排放经济体,并确保自然资源的可持续和再生利用。它首先回顾了对基于地区的保护目标、自然气候解决方案和基于自然的解决方案的批评,这些解决方案被认为是变革性的,包括生态完整性、生计、性别、公平、增长、权力、参与、知识和治理等问题。然后,它证实了六项战略建议,旨在帮助从业者有意引导转型过程。其中包括采取系统方法;与政治运动结成伙伴关系,实现公平公正的转型;将社会转型与个人(“内部”)转型联系起来;更新我们的计划;促进从诊断和规划向行动的转变;以及提高我们适应转型的能力。社交媒体摘要对遏制全球生物多样性和气候危机感到好奇?浏览这篇关于变革性保护的文章!
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引用次数: 8
期刊
Global Sustainability
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