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Modelling national transformations to achieve the SDGs within planetary boundaries in small island developing states 模拟小岛屿发展中国家在地球范围内实现可持续发展目标的国家转型
IF 5.5 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-04-21 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.13
Cameron Allen, G. Metternicht, T. Wiedmann, Matteo Pedercini
Non-technical summary The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide an integrated and ambitious roadmap for sustainable development by 2030. National implementation will be crucial and there is an urgent need to understand the scale and pace of transformations to achieve the goals. There is also concern that achieving socio-economic objectives will undermine longer-term environmental sustainability. This study uses modelling to explore how different policy and investment settings can enable the necessary transformations, adopting Fiji as a use-case. Modest investment over the coming decade can deliver improved performance. However, far more ambitious actions are needed to accelerate progress while managing long-term trade-offs with environmental objectives. Technical summary This paper presents the results from a national scenario modelling study for Fiji with broader relevance for other countries seeking to achieve the SDGs. We develop and simulate a business-as-usual and six alternative future scenarios using the integrated (iSDG-Fiji) system dynamics model and evaluate their performance on the SDGs in 2030 and global planetary boundaries (PBs) and the ‘safe and just space’ (SJS) framework in 2050. Modest investment over the coming decade through a ‘sustainability transition’ scenario accelerates SDG progress from 40% to 70% by 2030 but fails to meet all SJS thresholds. Greatly scaling up investment and ambition through an SDG transformation scenario highlights possibilities for Fiji to accelerate progress to 83% by 2030 while improving SJS performance. The scale of investment is highly ambitious and could not be delivered without scaled-up international support, but despite this investment progress still falls short. The analysis highlights where key trade-offs remain as well as options to address these, however closing the gap to 100% achievement will prove very challenging. The approach and findings are relevant to other countries with similar characteristics to increase the understanding of the transformations needed to achieve the SDGs within PBs in different country contexts. Social media summary How can countries accelerate progress on the SDGs by 2030 while ensuring longer-term coherence with climate and sustainability thresholds?
可持续发展目标(sdg)为到2030年实现可持续发展提供了一个综合的、雄心勃勃的路线图。国家执行将是至关重要的,迫切需要了解实现这些目标的改革的规模和速度。人们还担心,实现社会经济目标将破坏长期的环境可持续性。本研究以斐济为例,利用建模方法探索不同的政策和投资环境如何实现必要的转变。未来10年的适度投资可以改善业绩。然而,需要采取更加雄心勃勃的行动来加速进展,同时管理与环境目标之间的长期权衡。本文介绍了斐济国家情景建模研究的结果,该研究对寻求实现可持续发展目标的其他国家具有更广泛的相关性。我们使用综合(isdg -斐济)系统动力学模型开发并模拟了一种“一切照常”和六种可替代的未来情景,并评估了它们在2030年可持续发展目标和2050年全球地球边界(PBs)以及“安全与公正空间”(SJS)框架方面的表现。在未来十年,通过“可持续转型”情景进行适度投资,到2030年可持续发展目标的进展将从40%加快到70%,但未能达到可持续发展目标的所有门槛。通过可持续发展目标转型情景大幅扩大投资和雄心,斐济有可能在2030年之前将进展加快到83%,同时改善可持续发展目标的绩效。投资规模雄心勃勃,没有扩大的国际支持就无法实现,但尽管如此,投资进展仍然不足。分析强调了仍然存在的关键权衡以及解决这些问题的选择,然而将差距缩小到100%的成就将是非常具有挑战性的。该方法和研究结果与具有类似特点的其他国家具有相关性,以增进对在不同国家背景下实现可持续发展目标所需的转型的理解。各国如何加快到2030年实现可持续发展目标的进程,同时确保长期符合气候和可持续性阈值?
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引用次数: 5
The ‘last mile’ for climate data supporting local adaptation 支持当地适应的气候数据的“最后一英里”
IF 5.5 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-04-05 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.12
L. Celliers, M. M. Costa, D. Williams, S. Rosendo
Non-technical summary The ‘last mile’ is a transportation planning term that describes the movement of people and goods from a transportation hub to a final destination; a local place such as a home or a shop. This is the final step of the logistics process that unites the product with its new owner. We present and explain challenges of science-guided adaptation at the local level, and how this is an equivalent ‘last mile’ challenge for climate adaptation. Technical summary The ‘last mile’ issue, a term used in transportation planning, describes the movement of people and goods from a transportation hub to a final destination, a local place such as a home or a shop. This is the critical final step of the logistics process that unites the product with its new owner, and the point of the value chain. This analogy aptly describes the last steps between presenting scientific evidence of climate change to decision-makers for use in local adaptation and planning. Climate change data (observational and model simulation data e.g. climate change projections and predictions) remain under-utilised, especially by local institutions and actors for which adaptation is a priority. The assumptions and assertions of the classical data–information–knowledge–wisdom are challenged, and a derivative form of the information hierarchy is proposed. Elements of the classical information hierarchy are offset by four balancing elements of access (to data); usability (of information); governance (of knowledge) and politics (of wisdom). These balancing elements and their relatedness coincide with newer models of innovation relating to the interaction between different stakeholders across the different levels of governance, the inclusion of stakeholder expectations, transparency and accountability. Social media summary Climate data to wise decision-making in the ‘last mile’: a novel perspective on science-guided local adaptation.
非技术性总结“最后一英里”是一个交通规划术语,描述人员和货物从交通枢纽到最终目的地的流动;当地的地方,如家或商店。这是将产品与新所有者结合在一起的物流过程的最后一步。我们介绍并解释了地方一级科学指导的适应挑战,以及这是如何应对气候适应的“最后一英里”挑战。技术摘要“最后一英里”问题是交通规划中使用的一个术语,描述了人员和货物从交通枢纽到最终目的地,即家或商店等当地地方的流动。这是物流过程的关键最后一步,将产品与新所有者结合在一起,也是价值链的关键。这种类比恰当地描述了向决策者提供气候变化的科学证据以用于地方适应和规划之间的最后步骤。气候变化数据(观测和模型模拟数据,如气候变化预测和预测)仍然没有得到充分利用,特别是适应是优先事项的地方机构和行为者。对经典数据——信息——知识——智慧的假设和断言提出了挑战,并提出了信息层次的衍生形式。经典信息层次结构的元素被访问(数据)的四个平衡元素所抵消;(信息的)可用性;治理(知识)和政治(智慧)。这些平衡要素及其相关性与新的创新模式相吻合,这些创新模式涉及不同治理级别的不同利益相关者之间的互动,包括利益相关者的期望、透明度和问责制。社交媒体总结气候数据对“最后一英里”明智决策的启示:科学指导下的地方适应的新视角。
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引用次数: 13
Biodiversity conservation as infectious disease prevention: why a social-ecological perspective is essential 作为传染病预防的生物多样性保护:为什么社会生态观点是必不可少的
IF 5.5 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-03-15 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.11
Florian D. Schneider, D. Matias, Stefanie Burkhart, L. Drees, T. Fickel, D. Hummel, S. Liehr, Engelbert Schramm, M. Mehring
Non-technical summary Investing in stricter biodiversity conservation and wildlife protection to reduce the number of emerging diseases and, consequently, the risk of pandemics such as coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), must integrate a social-ecological perspective. Biodiversity conservation, in order to be effective as disease prevention, requires consideration of people's needs, knowledge and institutions within their locally specific contexts. To meet this goal, future biodiversity research and conservation policy should apply six social-ecological principles for shaping future practices of co-existence of societies and nature. Technical summary The COVID-19 pandemic, presumably originating in a spillover event from natural wildlife reservoirs into the human population, sets a new benchmark for the indirect cost of biodiversity exploitation. To reverse the trend of increasing pandemic risk, biodiversity conservation and wildlife protection must be strengthened globally. In this paper, we argue that such preventive measures explicitly need to employ a social-ecological approach. In particular, attention must be paid to the societal relations to nature to avoid falling for simplistic solutions that neglect regional and local particularities of both, biodiversity and local communities. We emphasize the importance of avoiding a Western-biased view and acknowledging the factors and causations of infectious disease emergence in industrialized countries. To reduce the emergence of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in their specific contexts, we propose applying a social-ecological systems approach by integrating plural local knowledge and values, established practices, formal and informal institutions, as well as technology. We further introduce six social-ecological principles for shaping transformations in the Anthropocene to maintain and build more resilient and sustainable communities. By operationalizing these inter- and transdisciplinary principles, biodiversity conservation can be effectively implemented as infectious disease prevention. Social media summary A social-ecological approach to biodiversity conservation can pave the way for an effective and socially just reduction of future pandemic risks.
投资于更严格的生物多样性保护和野生动物保护,以减少新发疾病的数量,从而减少冠状病毒病-19 (COVID-19)等大流行病的风险,必须从社会生态角度出发。为了使生物多样性保护有效地预防疾病,需要在当地具体情况下考虑人们的需求、知识和体制。为了实现这一目标,未来的生物多样性研究和保护政策应该应用六项社会生态原则来塑造未来社会与自然共存的实践。据推测,2019冠状病毒病大流行源于野生动物自然储存库对人类的溢出事件,它为生物多样性开发的间接成本设定了新的基准。为扭转大流行风险增加的趋势,必须在全球范围内加强生物多样性养护和野生动物保护。在本文中,我们认为这种预防措施明确需要采用社会生态学方法。特别是,必须注意社会与自然的关系,以避免陷入简单化的解决办法,忽视生物多样性和当地社区的区域和地方特点。我们强调避免西方偏见的观点和承认工业化国家出现传染病的因素和原因的重要性。为了减少人畜共患疾病和媒介传播疾病在其特定环境中的出现,我们建议采用社会生态系统方法,整合多种当地知识和价值观、既定做法、正式和非正式机构以及技术。我们进一步介绍了六项社会生态原则,用于塑造人类世的转变,以维持和建立更具弹性和可持续性的社区。通过实施这些跨学科和跨学科的原则,生物多样性保护可以作为传染病预防有效地实施。保护生物多样性的社会生态方法可以为有效和社会公正地减少未来的大流行风险铺平道路。
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引用次数: 5
Cities and COVID-19: navigating the new normal 城市与COVID-19:引领新常态
IF 5.5 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-03-09 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.10
Iman Khan, M. Iftikhar, Saleem H. Ali, Shua Khalid
Non-technical summary Urban density is erroneously regarded as the main factor in the spread of COVID-19 in cities. A review of extant literature and findings from our case study of Karachi, Pakistan indicate that inequalities in income, healthcare, and living conditions play a key role in the spread of contagions along with government responsiveness to the pandemic. Moving forward, urban policies need to address these inequalities through changes in housing policies and decentralized governance systems. Cities must adapt to sustainable modes of travel, reduce digital inequalities, and encourage people friendly urban planning to become resilient in the face of pandemics. Technical summary COVID-19 has changed how urban residents relate to their cities. Urban centers have become epicenters of disease, which has raised questions about the long-term sustainability of high-density settlements and public transport usage. However, the spread of COVID-19 in cities is incorrectly attributed to urban density. Using the case study of Karachi, Pakistan, we find that inequality of income, healthcare, and living conditions is a major contributing factor to the spread of COVID-19. Data on positive COVID-19 cases, density, and socioeconomic status were obtained at the Union Council level from administrative districts of Karachi, Pakistan between March 2020, and July 2020. Despite low population densities, low-to-middle income neighborhoods in Karachi had a higher proportion of positive cases. Further, the experience of dense cities such as Hanoi in Vietnam and New York in the US differs regarding the spread of COVID-19. Hence, the government's response to the pandemic is also a major factor in containing the outbreak. Our findings suggest that a crisis in a city is exacerbated by its inability to take advantage of its density, inequality in the distribution of resources, lack of inclusiveness, and centralized governance mechanisms that make it difficult to respond quickly to situations. Thus, urban planning scholarship and practice should take an interdisciplinary approach to make cities equitable, inclusive, and adaptive. Social media summary Cities in the developing world have an opportunity for more resilient renewal in the post-COVID world.
城市密度被错误地视为新冠病毒在城市传播的主要因素。对现有文献的回顾和我们对巴基斯坦卡拉奇的案例研究结果表明,收入、医疗保健和生活条件方面的不平等在传染病的传播以及政府对流行病的反应中发挥了关键作用。展望未来,城市政策需要通过改变住房政策和分散的治理体系来解决这些不平等问题。城市必须适应可持续的出行方式,减少数字不平等,并鼓励以人为本的城市规划,使其在面对大流行病时具有复原力。2019冠状病毒病改变了城市居民与城市的关系。城市中心已经成为疾病的中心,这引发了人们对高密度住区和公共交通使用的长期可持续性的质疑。然而,人们错误地将COVID-19在城市中的传播归因于城市密度。通过对巴基斯坦卡拉奇的案例研究,我们发现收入、医疗保健和生活条件的不平等是导致COVID-19传播的一个主要因素。在2020年3月至2020年7月期间,从巴基斯坦卡拉奇行政区获得了联邦理事会一级的COVID-19阳性病例、密度和社会经济状况数据。尽管人口密度低,但卡拉奇中低收入社区的阳性病例比例较高。此外,越南河内和美国纽约等人口密集的城市在新冠病毒传播方面的经验也有所不同。因此,政府的应对措施也是控制疫情的一个主要因素。我们的研究结果表明,城市无法利用其人口密度、资源分配不平等、缺乏包容性以及难以对情况做出快速反应的集中治理机制,会加剧危机。因此,城市规划学术和实践应该采取跨学科的方法,使城市公平、包容和适应。发展中国家的城市有机会在后冠状病毒病时代进行更具韧性的重建。
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引用次数: 7
Seize the day: opportunities and costs in the COVID-19 crisis 把握当下:2019冠状病毒病危机中的机遇和成本
IF 5.5 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-03-02 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.9
D. Bezemer
Non-technical summary The thesis of this paper is that the COVID-19 crisis creates opportunities for fundamental change towards a more sustainable economy, for two reasons: structural change in the economy and a change in public opinion. The paper identifies how the COVID-19 crisis accelerates six processes of change that can be leveraged in policy making. With a focus on the Netherlands, it argues for activist government policy because of the tipping-point nature of the economic system in the crisis. Technical summary Structural change in the economy and a change in public opinion during the COVID-19 crisis jointly imply that government choices regarding investments, regulation and taxes can now create stronger synergies of cleaner economic growth and employment creation with ecological, social and financial sustainability. The paper details this for six areas, with examples taken from The Netherlands. High levels of private and (in some countries) public debt may become so unsustainable that this prompts a restructuring of financing systems which are more productive and more in support of ecological goals. In value chains, ICT systems and urban transport systems, forced changes such as more work from home, more cycling lanes and more local production may, once in place, be used as proof of concepts for permanently different infrastructures and organizations. Aviation and energy became dependent on public support, which created financial leverage for enforcing change. Social media summary COVID-19 creates opportunities for change towards sustainability as it accelerates six processes of change.
本文的论点是,COVID-19危机为实现更可持续的经济的根本变革创造了机会,原因有两个:经济的结构性变化和公众舆论的变化。该报告确定了COVID-19危机如何加速可在政策制定中利用的六个变革过程。该书以荷兰为研究对象,主张政府应采取积极的政策,因为危机中的经济体系具有引爆点的性质。2019冠状病毒病危机期间的经济结构变化和公众舆论变化共同意味着,政府在投资、监管和税收方面的选择现在可以在更清洁的经济增长和创造就业与生态、社会和金融可持续性之间产生更强的协同效应。这篇论文详细介绍了六个领域,并以荷兰为例。高水平的私人债务和(在一些国家)公共债务可能变得不可持续,以致促使改组更有生产力和更支持生态目标的融资制度。在价值链、信息通信技术系统和城市交通系统中,强制变革,如更多的在家工作、更多的自行车道和更多的本地生产,一旦实施,可能会被用作永久不同基础设施和组织的概念证明。航空和能源变得依赖于公众的支持,这为实施变革创造了财政杠杆。2019冠状病毒病加速了六大变革进程,为实现可持续发展创造了机遇。
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引用次数: 6
Obituary for Paul J. Crutzen Paul J.Crutzen的讣告
IF 5.5 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-02-11 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.7
J. Rockström
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引用次数: 0
Indigenous peoples' displacement and jaguar survival in a warming planet 地球变暖中土著人民的流离失所和美洲豹的生存
IF 5.5 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-02-04 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.6
Kimberly A. Craighead, Milton Yacelga
Non-technical summary Climate change threatens tropical forests, ecosystem services, and indigenous peoples. The effects of climate change will force the San Blas Island communities of the indigenous Guna people to relocate to one of the most extensive, intact forests in Panama. In this paper, we argue that the impacts of climate change, and the proposed resettlement, will synergistically affect the jaguar. As apex predators, jaguars are sensitive to landscape change and require intact forests with ample prey to survive. Proactively planning for the intrinsically related issues of climate change, human displacement, and jaguar conservation is a complex but essential management task. Technical summary Tropical rainforest, coastal, and island communities are on the front line of increasing temperatures and sea-level rise associated with climate change. Future impacts on the interconnectedness of biological and cultural diversity (biocultural heritage) remain unknown. We review the interplay between the impacts of climate change and the displacement of the indigenous Guna people from the San Blas Islands, the relocation back to their mainland territory, and the implications for jaguar persistence. We highlight one of the most significant challenges to using resettlement as an adaptive strategy to climate change, securing a location where the Guna livelihoods, traditions, and culture may continue without significant change while protecting ecosystem services (e.g. biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and water). We posit that developing management plans that strive to meet social needs without sacrificing environmental principles will meet these objectives. Social media summary A biocultural approach increases adaptive capacity for ecological and human social systems threatened by climate change.
非技术性摘要气候变化威胁着热带森林、生态系统服务和土著人民。气候变化的影响将迫使土著古纳人的圣布拉斯岛社区迁移到巴拿马最广阔、最完整的森林之一。在本文中,我们认为气候变化的影响和拟议的重新安置将协同影响美洲豹。作为顶级捕食者,美洲豹对景观变化很敏感,需要有充足猎物的完整森林才能生存。积极规划气候变化、人类流离失所和美洲豹保护等本质相关的问题是一项复杂但必不可少的管理任务。技术摘要热带雨林、沿海和岛屿社区处于与气候变化相关的气温上升和海平面上升的前线。未来对生物多样性和文化多样性(生物文化遗产)相互联系的影响仍然未知。我们回顾了气候变化的影响与土著古纳人从圣布拉斯群岛流离失所、迁移回大陆以及对美洲豹生存的影响之间的相互作用。我们强调了将重新安置作为应对气候变化的适应性战略的最重大挑战之一,确保古纳人的生计、传统和文化在没有重大变化的情况下继续存在,同时保护生态系统服务(如生物多样性、碳固存和水)。我们认为,在不牺牲环境原则的情况下,制定努力满足社会需求的管理计划将达到这些目标。社交媒体摘要生物文化方法提高了对受气候变化威胁的生态和人类社会系统的适应能力。
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引用次数: 5
Food after the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Case for Change Posed by Alternative Food: A Case Study of the American Midwest COVID-19大流行后的食物和替代食品带来的变化:以美国中西部为例
IF 5.5 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-02-03 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.5
J. Robinson, Leïla Mzali, D. Knudsen, J. Farmer, Ruta Śpiewak, Shellye Suttles, Mecca E. Burris, Annie Shattuck, J. Valliant, A. Babb
Abstract Non-Technical Summary In this paper, we focus on the disruption that the current pandemic has created within the US industrial food system. We suggest that the pandemic has provided an opening for small producers. Attending to small-scale responses to the pandemic can guide policy and public investments towards a more just and sustainable future for food. Technical Summary Building on the IPES-Food Communique of April 2020, we examine the many ways in which the US industrial food system faltered during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Using Regime Theory as a guide, we suggest that such a catastrophic crisis may create significant opportunities for an emergent food regime. Drawing from our research and participant observation in the US Midwest, we examine changes in the food system occasioned by the pandemic that foreshadow a new food regime. We suggest several blockages and risks to this new regime and suggest policies that would make transition smoother to a more just and sustainable food system. Social Media Summary (120 characters) What will food be like after the pandemic? This new study outlines an alternative food system emerging in the American Midwest.
在本文中,我们重点关注当前大流行在美国工业食品系统中造成的破坏。我们认为,大流行为小生产者提供了机会。关注对大流行病的小规模应对可以指导政策和公共投资,以实现更公正和可持续的粮食未来。在2020年4月IPES-Food公报的基础上,我们研究了美国工业食品体系在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间出现的诸多问题。以制度理论为指导,我们认为这种灾难性的危机可能为紧急粮食制度创造重要的机会。根据我们在美国中西部的研究和参与观察,我们研究了大流行引起的粮食系统变化,这些变化预示着新的粮食制度。我们提出了这一新制度的几个障碍和风险,并提出了将使过渡更顺利,更公正和可持续的粮食系统的政策建议。疫情后的食物会是什么样子?这项新研究概述了美国中西部出现的一种替代食品体系。
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引用次数: 11
The Impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on climate change and air quality: four country case studies 新冠肺炎疫情对气候变化和空气质量的影响:四国案例研究
IF 5.5 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-01-27 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.4
Pouya Samani, C. García-Velásquez, Perine Fleury, Y. van der Meer
Non-technical summary To decrease the negative impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on human health, governments have implemented wide-ranging control measures. Moreover, they were urged to tackle a new challenge in energy policies to supply a new form of demand derived from new lifestyles of citizens and different energy consumption patterns. This article investigates the impacts of these changes on climate change and human health (due to air pollution) as a challenge for both citizens and governments in four countries: Colombia, France, the Netherlands, and Portugal. Technical summary The emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been associated with global challenges in both energy supply and demand. Numerous articles have discussed the potential benefits of COVID-19 for our planet to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollutants. By bringing the emissions from the energy production together with the air quality indicators, this article studies the impact on climate change and human health due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the consequent changes in energy policies of governments as well as lifestyles in different societies. This study shows that in spite of having a reduction, the GHG emissions might go back to previous or higher levels if governments do not see this pandemic as an opportunity to promote the use of renewable energies, which are becoming cheaper than non-renewables. Additionally, lower energy demand and less anthropogenic activities do not necessarily result in lower GHG emissions from energy production. Our results highlight the need for revising the policies and decisions of both governments and citizens, as temporary reductions in the levels of energy demand and air pollutants can easily be counterbalanced by adverse effects, known as the ‘rebound effect.’ Social media summary How did the changes in energy consumption and production due to COVID-19 affect climate change and human health in different countries?
为了减少冠状病毒疫情对人类健康的负面影响,各国政府实施了广泛的控制措施。此外,还敦促它们应对能源政策方面的新挑战,以满足由于公民的新生活方式和不同的能源消费模式而产生的新形式的需求。本文调查了这些变化对气候变化和人类健康的影响(由于空气污染),作为对四个国家的公民和政府的挑战:哥伦比亚、法国、荷兰和葡萄牙。2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行的出现与全球能源供需挑战有关。许多文章讨论了COVID-19在减少温室气体(GHG)排放和空气污染物方面对地球的潜在好处。本文通过将能源生产的排放与空气质量指标结合起来,研究了COVID-19大流行对气候变化和人类健康的影响,以及随之而来的政府能源政策和不同社会生活方式的变化。这项研究表明,尽管减少了温室气体排放,但如果各国政府不把这次大流行视为促进使用可再生能源的机会,温室气体排放可能会回到以前或更高的水平,因为可再生能源正变得比不可再生能源便宜。此外,能源需求的减少和人为活动的减少并不一定导致能源生产产生的温室气体排放量的减少。我们的研究结果强调了修改政府和公民的政策和决定的必要性,因为能源需求和空气污染物水平的暂时减少很容易被负面影响抵消,即所谓的“反弹效应”。2019冠状病毒病导致的能源消耗和生产变化如何影响不同国家的气候变化和人类健康?
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引用次数: 13
Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan 2020年气候科学的十大新见解——地平线扫描
IF 5.5 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-01-27 DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.2
Erik Pihl, E. Alfredsson, M. Bengtsson, K. Bowen, Vanesa Castán Broto, Kuei-Tien Chou, H. Cleugh, K. Ebi, Clea M. Edwards, E. Fisher, P. Friedlingstein, A. Godoy-Faúndez, M. Gupta, A. Harrington, K. Hayes, Bronwyn Hayward, S. Hebden, T. Hickmann, G. Hugelius, T. Ilyina, R. B. Jackson, T. Keenan, R. Lambino, S. Leuzinger, Mikael Malmaeus, R. McDonald, C. McMichael, Clark A. Miller, M. Muratori, N. Nagabhatla, H. Nagendra, Cristian Passarello, J. Peñuelas, J. Pongratz, J. Rockström, P. Romero‐Lankao, J. Roy, Adam A. Scaife, P. Schlosser, E. Schuur, Michelle Scobie, S. Sherwood, G. B. Sioen, Jakob Skovgaard, Edgardo A. Sobenes Obregon, S. Sonntag, J. Spangenberg, O. Spijkers, L. Srivastava, D. Stammer, P. Torres, M. Turetsky, A. Ukkola, D. V. van Vuuren, C. Voigt, C. Wannous, M. Zelinka
Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
我们总结了过去一年气候变化相关研究的一些最重要的发现。新的研究提高了我们对地球对二氧化碳敏感性的认识,发现永久冻土解冻可能释放出比预期更多的碳排放,热带生态系统对碳的吸收正在减弱。对人类社会的不利影响包括水资源日益短缺和对心理健康的影响。从重新思考经济模式、基于权利的诉讼、加强治理体系和新的社会契约等方面可以找到解决办法。COVID-19造成的破坏可以被视为积极变革的机会,将经济刺激转向可持续投资。通过具有广泛学科范围的专家启发过程,对自2019年年中以来取得重大进展的气候科学领域的十个领域进行了综合。研究结果包括:(1)更好地理解平衡气候敏感性;(2)冻土带突变解冻加速碳释放;(3)全球和区域陆地碳汇变化;(4)气候变化对水危机的影响,包括公平视角;(5)气候变化对心理健康的不利影响;(6) 2019冠状病毒病大流行对气候的直接影响以及落实《巴黎协定》所需的一揽子恢复措施;(7)建议从当前的大流行中吸取教训,对治理和社会契约进行长期改革,以应对气候变化;(8)更新了正成本效益比,并从短期和长期角度对绿色增长潜力提出了新的看法;(9)城市电气化是向低碳能源系统迈进的一种战略;(10)基于权利的诉讼是应对气候变化的一种日益重要的方法,最近对后代的法律地位和代表进行了澄清。永久冻土融化加剧、COVID-19效应和心理健康影响日益严重是最新气候科学的亮点。
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引用次数: 18
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Global Sustainability
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