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中美网络安全领域博弈机理分析及未来展望 / Analysis of The Game Mechanism in The Field of Network Security between China and the US and The Prospect of The Future 中美网络安全领域博弈机制分析及未来展望
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2016-12-01 DOI: 10.5278/OJS.JCIR.V4I2.1698
Wang Xiang
在中美关系各领域,网络空间问题在极短时间具有了极其重要的意义。近年来中美网络安全博弈烈度与频度大幅上升,增加了中美关系的不稳定性。本文回顾了中美近年来的历次网络安全博弈事件,指出网络安全问题已成为中美关系中的高风险问题和全领域影响因素,网络安全问题呼唤中美合作共同制定网络空间行为准则。展望中美网络安全关系的未来,本文认为,中美互联网领域实力与战略导致陷入“囚徒困境”的可能性增加,中美联手管控网络安全博弈、防止损害中美关系大局迫在眉睫,中美加强网络安全领域合作是必要性和可能性兼备的必然选择。 In the field of Sino-US relations, the network space plays a very important role during a very short period of time. In recent years, the intensity and frequency of Chinese and American network security game has increased significantly, which has increased the instability of Sino-US relations. This paper reviews the network security game events between China and the US in recent years, and points out that network security has become a high risk problem in the relationship between China and the US and it has become the factors affecting the whole area. Network security issues need cooperation between China and the US to develop guidelines for the conduct of Cyberspace. As regards the prospect of Sino-US cyber security relations in the future, this paper argues that the strength and strategy in the Internet field of China and the US lead to the likelihood that China and the US fall into the “prisoner’s dilemma”. China and the US have to control the network security game to prevent damage to the overall situation of Sino-US relations; this is very urgent. Strengthening the network security fields of cooperation between China and the US is an inevitable choice both in terms of necessity and possibility.
在中美关系各领域,网络空间问题在极短时间具有了极其重要的意义。近年来中美网络安全博弈烈度与频度大幅上升,增加了中美关系的不稳定性。本文回顾了中美近年来的历次网络安全博弈事件,指出网络安全问题已成为中美关系中的高风险问题和全领域影响因素,网络安全问题呼唤中美合作共同制定网络空间行为准则。展望中美网络安全关系的未来,本文认为,中美互联网领域实力与战略导致陷入“囚徒困境”的可能性增加,中美联手管控网络安全博弈、防止损害中美关系大局迫在眉睫,中美加强网络安全领域合作是必要性和可能性兼备的必然选择。 In the field of Sino-US relations, the network space plays a very important role during a very short period of time. In recent years, the intensity and frequency of Chinese and American network security game has increased significantly, which has increased the instability of Sino-US relations. This paper reviews the network security game events between China and the US in recent years, and points out that network security has become a high risk problem in the relationship between China and the US and it has become the factors affecting the whole area. Network security issues need cooperation between China and the US to develop guidelines for the conduct of Cyberspace. As regards the prospect of Sino-US cyber security relations in the future, this paper argues that the strength and strategy in the Internet field of China and the US lead to the likelihood that China and the US fall into the “prisoner’s dilemma”. China and the US have to control the network security game to prevent damage to the overall situation of Sino-US relations; this is very urgent. Strengthening the network security fields of cooperation between China and the US is an inevitable choice both in terms of necessity and possibility.
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引用次数: 0
China-Latin America Relations: Main Themes, Main Problems 中拉关系:主题与问题
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2016-09-16 DOI: 10.5278/OJS.JCIR.V4I2.1586
S. Christensen, Danielly Silva Ramos Becard
Historically there has been very scarce interest from academics and politicians in the field of China-Latin America relations. This has recently changed as a consequence of China’s impressive economic development trajectory after the introduction of economic reform policies of growing openness towards the international economy since the late 1970s. With China’s growing economic weight in the global economy, the country has gained a more central role on the international political scene. This “rise” of China’s global importance has made countries from all world regions increasingly interested in relations with China, and has raised the attention of academics in China and its global role as well as its relations with individual countries and different world regions across the board. From a Chinese perspective, interests have mostly been focused on relations with dominant countries in the developed global North as well as on relations with its regional neighbors, while there has barely been any interest in Africa and Latin America (Armony, 2011: 23-24). However, with its growing internationalization and industrialization, China’s economic interest in developing countries has grown. For example, China’s interest in Africa and its economic presence on that continent has grown substantially during the last 15-20 years, gaining much interest from the academic community. In the same period, China has also gradually become important for Latin American countries raising the interest of academics and politicians in Latin America in China-Latin America relations. This interest took off particularly after China’s entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001, although a country like Brazil already celebrated a strategic partnership with China in 1993 (Christensen, 2016). However, it was not until the 2000s that bilateral economic relations between Latin American countries and China took off. Initially, academic interest centered on bilateral economic relations between China and individual Latin American countries, with a particular focus on the differential economic impact of China on Latin American countries. A typical distinction was between South American countries, which were generally considered to be
从历史上看,学术界和政界对中拉关系的兴趣非常少。自20世纪70年代末以来,中国实施了对国际经济日益开放的经济改革政策,其经济发展轨迹令人印象深刻,这种情况最近发生了变化。随着中国经济在全球经济中的分量日益增加,中国在国际政治舞台上扮演了更加核心的角色。中国在全球重要性的“崛起”,使世界各地区的国家对与中国的关系越来越感兴趣,也引起了学术界对中国及其全球作用以及中国与各国和世界不同地区关系的全面关注。从中国的角度来看,中国的利益主要集中在与全球北方发达国家的关系以及与地区邻国的关系上,而对非洲和拉丁美洲几乎没有任何兴趣(Armony, 2011: 23-24)。然而,随着国际化和工业化进程的加快,中国在发展中国家的经济利益也越来越大。例如,中国对非洲的兴趣及其在非洲大陆的经济存在在过去15-20年间大幅增长,引起了学术界的极大兴趣。与此同时,中国对拉美国家也逐渐变得重要起来,拉美学术界和政界人士对中拉关系的兴趣日益浓厚。这种兴趣尤其在2001年中国加入世界贸易组织之后起飞,尽管像巴西这样的国家已经在1993年与中国建立了战略伙伴关系(Christensen, 2016)。然而,直到本世纪头十年,拉美国家与中国的双边经济关系才开始起飞。最初,学术兴趣集中在中国与拉美个别国家的双边经济关系上,特别关注中国对拉美国家的不同经济影响。一个典型的区别是在南美国家之间,这些国家通常被认为是
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引用次数: 3
Power Transition: The U.S. vs. China in Latin America 权力转移:美国vs.中国在拉丁美洲
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2016-09-16 DOI: 10.5278/OJS.JCIR.V4I2.1589
Antonio C. Hsiang
Based on Power Transition Theory, the paper investigates how China competes with the US in Latin America. The paper divided into four main sections. The first section reviews why the U.S. has tried hard to prevent Latin America and the Caribbean from developing relations with China. It also explains why Secretary of State John Kerry announced "The era of the Monroe Doctrine is over" in November 2013. The second part discusses China's expansion in Latin America. The more states that trade with China, the more likely they are to converge with it on issues of foreign policy. Consequently, the US, whose foreign policy preferences have diverged from those of China, may find it harder to attract allies in Latin America. The third part explores how Latin America has become more assertive. It also examines how such acquiescence increases the responsibility of those states to think carefully about what kind of relationship with China is in their interest, and that of the region. The last section concludes the article and provides policy implications for the US, China, and Latin America.
本文以权力转移理论为基础,考察了中国与美国在拉美的竞争。论文分为四个主要部分。第一部分回顾了美国为何极力阻止拉美和加勒比地区与中国发展关系。这也是美国国务卿克里在2013年11月宣布“门罗主义时代结束”的原因。第二部分论述了中国在拉美的扩张。与中国有贸易往来的国家越多,它们就越有可能在外交政策问题上与中国趋同。因此,外交政策偏好与中国不同的美国,可能会发现更难在拉美吸引盟友。第三部分探讨拉丁美洲如何变得更加自信。它还研究了这种默许如何增加了这些国家的责任,让他们仔细考虑与中国建立什么样的关系符合他们的利益,以及该地区的利益。最后一部分对文章进行总结,并为美国、中国和拉丁美洲提供政策启示。
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引用次数: 5
The Expansion of China's Global Hegemonic Strategy: Implications for Latin America 中国全球霸权战略的扩张:对拉美的启示
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2016-09-16 DOI: 10.5278/OJS.JCIR.V4I2.1587
Xing Li
The paper aims to provide a historical context for understanding the transition of China's development strategies from the "keeping a low profile" approach (Chinese: Tao Guang Yang Hui ) during the past three decades to the current "striving for achievement" approach (Chinese: You Suo Zuo Wei ) in recent years. The former lays a foundation for China's peaceful environment and economic success, while the latter represents a shift toward a more proactive foreign policy. The paper examines the two strategies from historical, regional and global perspectives and analyses the motivation behind China's current strategic repositioning. The author proposes an analytical lens of combining both Neo-Gramscian IR theory and the world system theory in order to comprehend the nexus between the accumulation and consolidation of China’s internal hegemony and its inevitable outward expansion. What are the implications of China's outward expansion of its global strategy? The author argues that Beijing's capital and hegemonic outward expansion represents a world system’s new round of capital and production relocation, which will dialectically enlarge or reduce "room for maneuver" and increase or decrease "upward mobility" for developing regions including Latin America. The paper concludes that it is in the political and economic interest of Latin America to seize the chance of this external "promotion by invitation" and to increase its upward mobility by finding the strategic convergence with China's global strategy.
本文旨在为理解中国发展战略从过去三十年的“韬光养晦”到近年来的“争创成就”的转变提供一个历史背景。前者为中国的和平环境和经济成功奠定了基础,而后者则代表着中国向更积极的外交政策的转变。本文从历史、区域和全球的角度考察了这两种战略,并分析了中国当前战略重新定位背后的动机。笔者提出了新葛兰西国际关系理论与世界体系理论相结合的分析视角,以理解中国内部霸权的积累与巩固与不可避免的对外扩张之间的联系。中国向外扩张其全球战略意味着什么?作者认为,北京的资本和霸权的对外扩张代表着世界体系的新一轮资本和生产转移,这将辩证地扩大或缩小包括拉丁美洲在内的发展中地区的“回旋余地”,增加或减少“向上流动性”。本文的结论是,抓住这一外部“邀请式推动”的机会,通过寻找与中国全球战略的战略契合点来提高拉美的向上流动性,符合拉美的政治和经济利益。
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引用次数: 10
Promoting Renewable Energy or Environmental Problems?: Environmental Politics and Sustainability in Sino-Brazilian Relations 促进可再生能源还是环境问题?:中巴关系中的环境政治与可持续性
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2016-09-16 DOI: 10.5278/OJS.JCIR.V4I2.1593
Malayna Raftopoulos, Marieke Riethof
China is now Brazil’s largest trade and investment partner, with Brazil’s exports dominated by primary products such as iron ore, soy and crude oil. China and Brazil have also become major players in international environmental and debates as emerging powers, reflecting their contribution to carbon emissions and their vulnerability to climate change and environmental disasters such as droughts, floods, deforestation, landslides and pollution. In environmental terms, Brazil’s exports to China have led to changes in land use focused on export agriculture, the construction of infrastructure in vulnerable areas such as the Amazon region and a growing need for cheap, renewable energy to fuel transport, consumption and industrial development. In the context of these intensifying trade and economic connections between Brazil and China, this article examines the environmental dimensions of this relationship, focusing in particular on the contradictions created by renewable energy production. Paradoxically, given Brazil’s key role in the international climate change debate, one of the most controversial aspects of the country’s development agenda is the promotion of renewable energy as evidenced in the conflicts around hydro-electric power generation. The latter have provoked protests against the dams’ social and environmental effects among local communities and international environmental groups. Little studied compared to the more well-known aspects of Sino-Latin American relations, such as infrastructure and trade, the article argues that Chinese involvement in hydropower in Brazil reinforces an increasingly unsustainable domestic development agenda, as reflected in the asymmetry between arguments about the general benefits of hydropower and the negative effects on local communities.
中国现在是巴西最大的贸易和投资伙伴,巴西的出口主要是铁矿石、大豆和原油等初级产品。作为新兴大国,中国和巴西也已成为国际环境和辩论的主要参与者,这反映出它们对碳排放的贡献,以及它们对气候变化和干旱、洪水、森林砍伐、山体滑坡和污染等环境灾害的脆弱性。在环境方面,巴西对中国的出口导致了以出口农业为重点的土地利用变化,在亚马逊地区等脆弱地区建设基础设施,以及对廉价可再生能源日益增长的需求,以推动运输、消费和工业发展。在巴西和中国之间日益密切的贸易和经济联系的背景下,本文考察了这种关系的环境层面,特别关注可再生能源生产所产生的矛盾。矛盾的是,鉴于巴西在国际气候变化辩论中的关键作用,该国发展议程中最具争议的一个方面是促进可再生能源,这在围绕水力发电的冲突中得到了证明。后者引发了当地社区和国际环保组织对大坝社会和环境影响的抗议。与中拉关系中广为人知的基础设施和贸易等方面相比,这篇文章的研究很少。文章认为,中国在巴西参与水电项目,强化了巴西国内日益不可持续的发展议程,这反映在关于水电的总体效益和对当地社区的负面影响的争论之间的不对称。
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引用次数: 3
China's Impact on Latin American Development: A Comparative Study of Bolivia and Venezuela 中国对拉美发展的影响:玻利维亚与委内瑞拉的比较研究
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2016-09-16 DOI: 10.5278/OJS.JCIR.V4I2.1590
S. Christensen
This analysis compares Bolivia's and Venezuela's recent development path and China's impact on it. The two country cases have been chosen due to the fact that they have experienced quite different economic development paths since the international financial crisis in 2008-2009, although they have pursued largely similar economic development strategies and foreign policy strategies. Bolivia has done much better than Venezuela that is now experiencing a chaotic social and economic situation with high levels of inflation and finances out of control. In contrast, Bolivia maintains stable growth figures of between four and five percent and is one of just a small select group of South American commodity exporting countries that is able to pursue counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies. The analysis further argues that China's significance was negligible at the turn of the Century and had become somewhat more significant for Venezuela by 2009, while it was still rather insignificant for Bolivia. Since then, China's significance has grown, particularly in Venezuela that has needed much foreign financing and had been frozen out of international financial markets. However, China has also grown in significance for Bolivia and mostly has had a positive, though, not big impact on its development. In contrast, China's impact on Venezuela has been bigger and mostly positive, but it has not sufficed to end Venezuela’s current development crisis.
本分析比较了玻利维亚和委内瑞拉最近的发展道路以及中国对其的影响。之所以选择这两个国家的案例,是因为自2008-2009年国际金融危机以来,它们经历了截然不同的经济发展道路,尽管它们奉行的经济发展战略和外交政策战略在很大程度上相似。玻利维亚比委内瑞拉做得好得多,委内瑞拉目前正经历着混乱的社会和经济状况,通货膨胀率高,财政失控。相比之下,玻利维亚保持着4%至5%的稳定增长数字,是少数几个能够实行反周期宏观经济政策的南美商品出口国之一。分析进一步指出,中国在世纪之交的重要性可以忽略不计,到2009年对委内瑞拉的重要性有所提高,而对玻利维亚的重要性仍然相当微不足道。自那以后,中国的重要性与日俱增,尤其是在委内瑞拉,该国需要大量外国融资,并被国际金融市场拒之门外。然而,中国对玻利维亚的影响也越来越大,而且主要是积极的,尽管对玻利维亚的发展影响不大。相比之下,中国对委内瑞拉的影响更大,而且大多是积极的,但这还不足以结束委内瑞拉目前的发展危机。
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引用次数: 0
Venezuela and China: Independency and Dependency in the Context of Interdependent Hegemony 委内瑞拉与中国:霸权相互依存背景下的独立与依附
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2016-09-16 DOI: 10.5278/OJS.JCIR.V4I2.1591
Ó. G. Agustín
In a world order without a sole hegemon, the dialectic relationship between the main global players and emerging powers enables nation-states to strategically favor their national interests as well as mutually beneficial alliances, whilst the multipolar world becomes strengthened. This article draws on this context of 'interdependent hegemony' to explore the existing relationship between Venezuela, as a swing state, and China, as one of the Big Three global powers. Particularly, I focus on Venezuelan efforts to develop, at the domestic and regional level, a counterhegemonic political project against the US and how China is considered a valuable ally to acquire more independence. However, this situation of interdependence can paradoxically lead to a new kind of dependence, in this case on China. To analyze these relations, I propose a conceptual framework consisting of three dimensions: 1) the international positioning towards other Northern and Southern countries and whether the relationship is conceived in terms of conflict or cooperation; 2) the economic model and how it conditions the relationship between countries and whether relationships or dependence are generated; and 3) the development of a political and economic model which can inspire or be followed by other countries. Although China's influence and increasing power in Venezuela is unquestionable in economic terms, the Venezuelan government uses its agreements with China strategically to legitimate its policies, in the name of a South-socialist alternative, and to reaffirm its international positioning.
在一个没有唯一霸主的世界秩序中,主要全球参与者与新兴大国之间的辩证关系使民族国家能够在战略上有利于自己的国家利益和互利联盟,同时多极世界得到加强。本文利用“相互依存的霸权”这一背景,探讨作为摇摆国家的委内瑞拉与作为全球三大强国之一的中国之间的现有关系。我特别关注委内瑞拉在国内和地区层面上发展反对美国的反霸权政治计划的努力,以及中国如何被视为获得更多独立的宝贵盟友。然而,这种相互依赖的情况可能矛盾地导致一种新的依赖,在这种情况下是对中国的依赖。为了分析这些关系,我提出了一个由三个维度组成的概念框架:1)对其他北方和南方国家的国际定位,以及这种关系是从冲突还是合作的角度来考虑的;2)经济模式及其如何制约国与国之间的关系,以及是否产生了关系或依赖;3)发展一种可以激励或被其他国家效仿的政治和经济模式。尽管中国在委内瑞拉的影响力和日益增强的实力在经济方面是毋庸置疑的,但委内瑞拉政府以南方社会主义替代方案的名义,利用与中国的协议战略性地使其政策合法化,并重申其国际定位。
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引用次数: 5
China and Latin America Relations: The Win-Win Rhetoric 中拉关系:双赢的修辞
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2016-09-16 DOI: 10.5278/OJS.JCIR.V4I2.1588
Raúl Bernal-Meza
The text analyzes the economic relations between China and Latin America in the context of the capitalist world system. It is argued that as a world power, China has developed a network of economic, trade and financial relations with other economies around the core, the semi-periphery and periphery of the system. The analysis explains the nature of the structure of economic relations between China and Latin America, which is part of China's periphery. The structure of the relationship between China and Latin America is a function of China's development and not of its periphery. In other words, the relationship serves Chinese interests through the unequal relationship in which China exports manufactured goods and high value-added products and imports basic products and commodities from Latin America. To justify this unequal relationship, Beijing argues that both partners are part of the developing world and that the trade structure between the two parties is of mutual benefit. It is what we call "win-win rhetoric". The paper argues that this explanation serves China as a means to hide a bilateral relationship that has a distinct North-South structure and that serves China's own interests. The text further argues that the relationship between the two parties serves China's interests as a world power. Thus, China has a utilitarian relationship with Latin America.
本文分析了资本主义世界体系背景下中国与拉美的经济关系。有人认为,作为一个世界大国,中国已经与该体系的核心、半外围和外围的其他经济体建立了一个经济、贸易和金融关系网络。这一分析解释了中国与拉美经济关系结构的本质,拉美是中国的外围地区。中国与拉美关系的结构取决于中国的发展,而非其周边国家。换句话说,中国出口制成品和高附加值产品,从拉美进口基础产品和大宗商品,这种不平等关系符合中国的利益。为了证明这种不平等关系的合理性,北京辩称,双方都是发展中国家的一部分,双方之间的贸易结构是互利的。这就是我们所说的“双赢修辞”。本文认为,这种解释为中国提供了一种掩饰双边关系的手段,这种关系具有独特的南北结构,符合中国自身的利益。文章进一步指出,两党之间的关系符合中国作为世界大国的利益。因此,中国与拉美有着功利主义的关系。
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引用次数: 20
Domestic Reactions to China's Presence in Three Latin American Countries: Brazil, Nicaragua and Venezuela 国内对中国在巴西、尼加拉瓜和委内瑞拉这三个拉美国家存在的反应
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2016-09-16 DOI: 10.5278/OJS.JCIR.V4I2.1592
F. P. Flores, Daniel Jatobá
China's increasing presence in several Latin American countries is having different effects on national political arenas, probably making room for new specific cleavages. This article is an exploratory study with the purpose of identifying political reactions to China's growing economic presence in three differently sized Latin American countries (Brazil, Venezuela and Nicaragua). Our analytical perspective considers China-related issues as part of the foreign policy agenda in Latin American countries and, in turn, foreign policy issues as a phenomenon that can be observed like any other public policy issue. That is, a realm where actors inside or outside the state use political resources and energy to advance their own preferences. In analyzing the diverse circumstances generated by China’s economic presence in each of the selected cases, we hope to contribute to studies on the politicization of foreign policy in Latin American countries.
中国在几个拉美国家日益增加的存在对国家政治舞台产生了不同的影响,可能为新的具体分歧创造了空间。本文是一项探索性研究,旨在确定三个不同规模的拉美国家(巴西、委内瑞拉和尼加拉瓜)对中国日益增长的经济存在的政治反应。我们的分析视角认为,与中国相关的问题是拉美国家外交政策议程的一部分,反过来,外交政策问题作为一种现象,可以像任何其他公共政策问题一样观察。也就是说,在这个领域里,国家内外的行动者利用政治资源和精力来推进自己的偏好。通过分析中国在每个案例中的经济存在所产生的不同情况,我们希望对拉美国家外交政策政治化的研究有所贡献。
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引用次数: 4
Resource Curse and China's Infrastructure for Resources Model: Case Study of Angola 资源诅咒与中国“资源换基础设施”模式——以安哥拉为例
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2016-05-30 DOI: 10.5278/OJS.JCIR.V4I1.1515
L. Durović
Resource-rich Sub-Saharan countries have found themselves trapped in the so-called resource curse. The importance of the aforementioned countries both as sources of natural resources and as consumer markets has been recognized by major world powers. It is rational to assume that the world power that manages to assist Sub-Saharan countries in dealing with the aforementioned curse will be given a preferential treatment in their future economic interaction. Thus finding an instrument that can deal with the resource curse has become of large importance. One of the major powers that has been present in Africa for a long time is China; which has recognized this opportunity and thus enhanced its engagement in the Sub-Saharan region, primarily through the Infrastructure for Resources model. This model enables developing countries to expand their infrastructure by relying on their resource wealth. Thus, it partially subdues the resource curse, which is empirically verified though a case study on its implementation in Angola. It is important to note that there is no consensus among scholars regarding the nature of China's involvement in Africa. However, this research avoids ideological debates, and focuses solely on the efficiency of the model in dealing with the resource curse.
资源丰富的撒哈拉以南国家发现自己陷入了所谓的资源诅咒。上述国家作为自然资源来源和消费市场的重要性已得到世界主要大国的承认。我们有理由认为,帮助撒哈拉以南非洲国家应对上述诅咒的世界大国将在未来的经济互动中获得优惠待遇。因此,寻找一种能够应对资源诅咒的工具变得非常重要。长期存在于非洲的大国之一是中国;非洲认识到这一机会,因此主要通过“基础设施换资源”模式加强了其在撒哈拉以南地区的参与。这种模式使发展中国家能够依靠其资源财富来扩大其基础设施。因此,它在一定程度上克服了资源诅咒,并通过对其在安哥拉实施的案例研究进行了经验验证。值得注意的是,学者们对中国参与非洲事务的性质没有达成共识。然而,本研究避免了意识形态的争论,而只关注模型在处理资源诅咒方面的效率。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Journal of China and International Relations
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