Pub Date : 2023-06-21DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00802007
A. Tsygankov
The paper identifies several Russian visions of future relations with Ukraine and Western nations from the mid-term perspective. Russian scholars and foreign policy analysts have debated several scenarios of future relations that can be defined as a long war, a hostile coexistence, and a renewed peace. While not entirely exclusive, each has its own internal logic and is driven by distinct forces. The paper reviews writings and commentaries by Russian thinkers as reflective of the identified scenarios by analyzing and comparing their arguments. From the Russian perspective, a stable peace is only possible by addressing issues of values, security, and economic and political relations among Russia, Ukraine, and Western countries. An analysis of Russia’s internal discussions presents an opportunity to understand the diversity of the country’s reasoning about future international relations.
{"title":"Between War and Peace: Russian Visions of Future Relations with Ukraine and the West","authors":"A. Tsygankov","doi":"10.30965/24518921-00802007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30965/24518921-00802007","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The paper identifies several Russian visions of future relations with Ukraine and Western nations from the mid-term perspective. Russian scholars and foreign policy analysts have debated several scenarios of future relations that can be defined as a long war, a hostile coexistence, and a renewed peace. While not entirely exclusive, each has its own internal logic and is driven by distinct forces. The paper reviews writings and commentaries by Russian thinkers as reflective of the identified scenarios by analyzing and comparing their arguments. From the Russian perspective, a stable peace is only possible by addressing issues of values, security, and economic and political relations among Russia, Ukraine, and Western countries. An analysis of Russia’s internal discussions presents an opportunity to understand the diversity of the country’s reasoning about future international relations.","PeriodicalId":37176,"journal":{"name":"Russian Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47770482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-21DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00802004
I. Zhyrun
Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership have been a source of contention between Russia and Ukraine for decades. At the same time, domestic debates in Ukraine on relations with NATO have also been a divisive issue for Ukraine’s ruling political elites. These conflicts culminated in 2022, when Russia launched a military offensive against Ukraine claiming that its movement towards NATO was an existential threat to the Russian state. This paper summarizes some of the results of my longitudinal research of ruling elite discourse on NATO in Ukraine between 1997 and 2018. It focuses on the changes in national identity discourse and contestation, pinpointing their constitutive role for Ukrainian foreign policy.
{"title":"Ukrainian Discourses on NATO: Securitization, Otherness, and Their Effects on Russo-Ukrainian Relations","authors":"I. Zhyrun","doi":"10.30965/24518921-00802004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30965/24518921-00802004","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership have been a source of contention between Russia and Ukraine for decades. At the same time, domestic debates in Ukraine on relations with NATO have also been a divisive issue for Ukraine’s ruling political elites. These conflicts culminated in 2022, when Russia launched a military offensive against Ukraine claiming that its movement towards NATO was an existential threat to the Russian state. This paper summarizes some of the results of my longitudinal research of ruling elite discourse on NATO in Ukraine between 1997 and 2018. It focuses on the changes in national identity discourse and contestation, pinpointing their constitutive role for Ukrainian foreign policy.","PeriodicalId":37176,"journal":{"name":"Russian Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49207036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-21DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00802008
Andrey Kortunov
This paper addresses the resilience demonstrated by the international system when confronted by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The author argues that this resilience might not be sustainable and that in the mid-term perspective we might observe some explicit disintegration in the system that affects multilateral institutions, international public law, and the global governance at large. Four independent variables are important in shaping the future world order: the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian and the Russian-Western confrontation, the dynamics of the US-China relations, the sustainability of Western cohesion, and the prospects for a new cycle of globalization.
{"title":"The Russian-Ukrainian Conflict and the Future World Order","authors":"Andrey Kortunov","doi":"10.30965/24518921-00802008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30965/24518921-00802008","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000This paper addresses the resilience demonstrated by the international system when confronted by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The author argues that this resilience might not be sustainable and that in the mid-term perspective we might observe some explicit disintegration in the system that affects multilateral institutions, international public law, and the global governance at large. Four independent variables are important in shaping the future world order: the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian and the Russian-Western confrontation, the dynamics of the US-China relations, the sustainability of Western cohesion, and the prospects for a new cycle of globalization.","PeriodicalId":37176,"journal":{"name":"Russian Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47607514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-21DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00802002
Volodymyr Ishchenko
The article discusses the political contention around the implementation of the Minsk Accords in Ukraine, and why the pluralist nation-building project required for the success of these accords failed. The much-debated cleavage between the more ‘pro-Western’ and more ‘pro-Russian’ regions of Ukraine requires that such an alternative be taken seriously. The article argues that neither the change of the balance in favor of the pro-Western electorate in 2014, nor the rise of Ukraine’s civic identity in response to Russian aggression can adequately explain the failure to develop a positive, pluralist nation-building project in the context of Minsk. It argues instead that the profound class and political asymmetry between Ukraine’s ‘Western’ and ‘Eastern’ political camps created different capacities for the universalization of their particular interests, and for effective political mobilization for and against the Minsk Accords in the context of Euromaidan’s revolutionary dynamics.
{"title":"The Minsk Accords and the Political Weakness of the “Other Ukraine”","authors":"Volodymyr Ishchenko","doi":"10.30965/24518921-00802002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30965/24518921-00802002","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The article discusses the political contention around the implementation of the Minsk Accords in Ukraine, and why the pluralist nation-building project required for the success of these accords failed. The much-debated cleavage between the more ‘pro-Western’ and more ‘pro-Russian’ regions of Ukraine requires that such an alternative be taken seriously. The article argues that neither the change of the balance in favor of the pro-Western electorate in 2014, nor the rise of Ukraine’s civic identity in response to Russian aggression can adequately explain the failure to develop a positive, pluralist nation-building project in the context of Minsk. It argues instead that the profound class and political asymmetry between Ukraine’s ‘Western’ and ‘Eastern’ political camps created different capacities for the universalization of their particular interests, and for effective political mobilization for and against the Minsk Accords in the context of Euromaidan’s revolutionary dynamics.","PeriodicalId":37176,"journal":{"name":"Russian Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47609171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-21DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00802005
Ivan Katchanovski
Abstract This study analyzes revelations from the trial and investigation in Ukraine concerning the mass killing that took place in Kyiv on 20 February 2014. This Maidan massacre of protesters and police led to the overthrow of the Yanukovych government and ultimately to the Russian annexation of Crimea, the civil war and Russian military interventions in Donbas, and the Ukraine-Russia and West-Russia conflicts which Russia escalated by illegally invading Ukraine in 2022. The absolute majority of wounded Maidan protesters, nearly 100 prosecution and defense witnesses, synchronized videos, and medical and ballistic examinations by government experts pointed unequivocally to the fact that the Maidan protesters were massacred by snipers located in Maidan-controlled buildings. To date, however, due to the political sensitivity of these findings and cover-up, no one has been convicted for this massacre. The article discusses the implications of these revelations for the Ukraine-Russia war and the future of Russian-Ukrainian relations.
{"title":"The Maidan Massacre Trial and Investigation Revelations: Implications for the Ukraine-Russia War and Relations","authors":"Ivan Katchanovski","doi":"10.30965/24518921-00802005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30965/24518921-00802005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study analyzes revelations from the trial and investigation in Ukraine concerning the mass killing that took place in Kyiv on 20 February 2014. This Maidan massacre of protesters and police led to the overthrow of the Yanukovych government and ultimately to the Russian annexation of Crimea, the civil war and Russian military interventions in Donbas, and the Ukraine-Russia and West-Russia conflicts which Russia escalated by illegally invading Ukraine in 2022. The absolute majority of wounded Maidan protesters, nearly 100 prosecution and defense witnesses, synchronized videos, and medical and ballistic examinations by government experts pointed unequivocally to the fact that the Maidan protesters were massacred by snipers located in Maidan-controlled buildings. To date, however, due to the political sensitivity of these findings and cover-up, no one has been convicted for this massacre. The article discusses the implications of these revelations for the Ukraine-Russia war and the future of Russian-Ukrainian relations.","PeriodicalId":37176,"journal":{"name":"Russian Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136295835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-21DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00802009
R. Sakwa
The onset of multipolarity is accompanied by a number of cross-cutting trends. First, the consolidation of elements of modified bipolarity in the form of the Sino-American great power dyad. Second, the emergence of a range of ‘legacy’ great powers, including Germany, France, the UK and Japan, with Russia struggling to retain its status as a great power while fearing relegation to legacy status. Third, the revival of cold war entails the restoration of bloc politics, although in this case in an acutely asymmetrical form. The nascent political institutionalization of the political East is based on a very different institutional and normative basis than the more consolidated political West. Overall, the center of gravity of international politics is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin, reflecting a fundamental change in the global correlation of forces. The Ukraine war has accelerated the end of the era of the dominance of the political West.
{"title":"Power Transition, Cold War II and International Politics","authors":"R. Sakwa","doi":"10.30965/24518921-00802009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30965/24518921-00802009","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The onset of multipolarity is accompanied by a number of cross-cutting trends. First, the consolidation of elements of modified bipolarity in the form of the Sino-American great power dyad. Second, the emergence of a range of ‘legacy’ great powers, including Germany, France, the UK and Japan, with Russia struggling to retain its status as a great power while fearing relegation to legacy status. Third, the revival of cold war entails the restoration of bloc politics, although in this case in an acutely asymmetrical form. The nascent political institutionalization of the political East is based on a very different institutional and normative basis than the more consolidated political West. Overall, the center of gravity of international politics is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin, reflecting a fundamental change in the global correlation of forces. The Ukraine war has accelerated the end of the era of the dominance of the political West.","PeriodicalId":37176,"journal":{"name":"Russian Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47845086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-21DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00802003
D. Kiryukhin
This study examines the ideology of the nation-building process in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. The key features of this process are uncovered through a discourse analysis of school textbooks published in the People’s Republics and in Transnistria, and of the ‘Russian Donbas’ ideology. This is compared to the history and interpretations of the concept of ‘Novorossiya’. This research demonstrates the difference between Donbas and other the post-Soviet contested states, and highlights the role of the Russian government and Russian radical right-wing intellectuals in the formation of the ‘Russian Donbas’ ideology. It concludes that, although Russia had a decisive influence on the development of the conflict in Donbas, Donbas also affected the ideological transformation of Putin’s Russia.
{"title":"Russia’s Policy towards Donbas Since 2014: The Nation-Building Process and Its Ideology","authors":"D. Kiryukhin","doi":"10.30965/24518921-00802003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30965/24518921-00802003","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000This study examines the ideology of the nation-building process in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. The key features of this process are uncovered through a discourse analysis of school textbooks published in the People’s Republics and in Transnistria, and of the ‘Russian Donbas’ ideology. This is compared to the history and interpretations of the concept of ‘Novorossiya’. This research demonstrates the difference between Donbas and other the post-Soviet contested states, and highlights the role of the Russian government and Russian radical right-wing intellectuals in the formation of the ‘Russian Donbas’ ideology. It concludes that, although Russia had a decisive influence on the development of the conflict in Donbas, Donbas also affected the ideological transformation of Putin’s Russia.","PeriodicalId":37176,"journal":{"name":"Russian Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47020537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-07DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00801005
I. Viktorov, O. Kryshtanovskaya
This article examines the issue of Putin’s presidential successor from a historical perspective of long-term political cycles. Contemporary Russia still shows considerable similarities to the polities, characteristic of old agrarian empires in Asia. Based on the thesis on the origins of the monocentric political system in Russia, our article analyses how the transition of presidential power takes place in Russia, who might be the next president of Russia and whether we will see a new ‘time of troubles’, or smuta, after Putin’s departure. A generational change in Putin’s elite cohort will require a specific candidate to ensure a successful transition as a long-term solution. This will involve balancing clashing interests between key informal power networks. In all likelihood, a repeat of a political cycle of empires will happen in Russia again, resulting in a continued consolidation of its monocentric political system.
{"title":"Presidential Succession in Russia: Political Cycles and Intra-Elite Conflicts","authors":"I. Viktorov, O. Kryshtanovskaya","doi":"10.30965/24518921-00801005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30965/24518921-00801005","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000This article examines the issue of Putin’s presidential successor from a historical perspective of long-term political cycles. Contemporary Russia still shows considerable similarities to the polities, characteristic of old agrarian empires in Asia. Based on the thesis on the origins of the monocentric political system in Russia, our article analyses how the transition of presidential power takes place in Russia, who might be the next president of Russia and whether we will see a new ‘time of troubles’, or smuta, after Putin’s departure. A generational change in Putin’s elite cohort will require a specific candidate to ensure a successful transition as a long-term solution. This will involve balancing clashing interests between key informal power networks. In all likelihood, a repeat of a political cycle of empires will happen in Russia again, resulting in a continued consolidation of its monocentric political system.","PeriodicalId":37176,"journal":{"name":"Russian Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48851411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-07DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00801004
I. Matveev, O. Zhuravlev
While Russia became widely known in the 1990s for its experiment in shock therapy, by the mid-2000s the Kremlin pioneered a new set of policies that amounted to the national variant of the developmentalist approach. In this article, we take stock of the Russian developmentalism, focusing on the role of ideas, the institution-building by the federal and regional governments as well as specific developmental policies. While state-oriented, interventionist approach to economic development has had some successes on the level of individual industries, regions and projects, on the whole, it failed to achieve transformational developmental outcomes. The economy has stagnated for over a decade and the Russian export basket is less sophisticated than it was 20 years ago. We argue that the failure of the Russian approach to developmentalism cannot be reduced to corruption and rent-seeking: the lack of an effective coordination mechanism and a consistent policy strategy underpinned by a foundation in heterodox economics have also played a role.
{"title":"When the Whole Is Less Than the Sum of Its Parts: Russian Developmentalism since the Mid-2000s","authors":"I. Matveev, O. Zhuravlev","doi":"10.30965/24518921-00801004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30965/24518921-00801004","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000While Russia became widely known in the 1990s for its experiment in shock therapy, by the mid-2000s the Kremlin pioneered a new set of policies that amounted to the national variant of the developmentalist approach. In this article, we take stock of the Russian developmentalism, focusing on the role of ideas, the institution-building by the federal and regional governments as well as specific developmental policies. While state-oriented, interventionist approach to economic development has had some successes on the level of individual industries, regions and projects, on the whole, it failed to achieve transformational developmental outcomes. The economy has stagnated for over a decade and the Russian export basket is less sophisticated than it was 20 years ago. We argue that the failure of the Russian approach to developmentalism cannot be reduced to corruption and rent-seeking: the lack of an effective coordination mechanism and a consistent policy strategy underpinned by a foundation in heterodox economics have also played a role.","PeriodicalId":37176,"journal":{"name":"Russian Politics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46100544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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