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Why U.S. – Russia Relations Failed: An Analysis of Competing National Security Narratives 美俄关系为何失败:对立国家安全叙事的分析
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803009
Lev Sokolshchik, Yulia Sokolshchik
Abstract The following article addresses the question of why, despite a handful of certain overlapping interests, the U.S and Russia ultimately failed to reach a compromise during their negotiations at the start of the Ukrainian crisis. We aim to reveal the effects of competing national security narratives from both the United States and Russia, and its role in the deterioration of these relations. Though the current crisis in U.S. – Russia relations has been sometime in the making, it became particularly evident in the context of Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. Based on paradigmatic narrative interpretations, a qualitative text analysis, and a comparative analysis, we examine the two main aspects of the counties’ competing narratives: “national security storytelling” and state “threat perception”. We argue that due to their antagonistic identities, competing worldviews, and equally posing threat perceptions, these narratives have damaged the possibility to overcome contradictions between the United States and Russia. In the long term, these competing narratives may create the preconditions for a systemic confrontation between the countries in world politics.
以下文章探讨了为什么在乌克兰危机开始时,尽管存在一些重叠的利益,但美国和俄罗斯最终未能在谈判中达成妥协。我们的目标是揭示美国和俄罗斯相互竞争的国家安全叙事的影响,以及它在这些关系恶化中的作用。虽然目前美俄关系的危机已经酝酿了一段时间,但在俄罗斯在乌克兰的“特殊军事行动”的背景下,这种危机变得尤为明显。基于范式叙事解释、定性文本分析和比较分析,我们考察了国家竞争叙事的两个主要方面:“国家安全叙事”和国家“威胁感知”。我们认为,由于他们的敌对身份、相互竞争的世界观和同样构成威胁的看法,这些叙述破坏了克服美俄之间矛盾的可能性。从长远来看,这些相互竞争的叙事可能会为世界政治中两国之间的系统性对抗创造先决条件。
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引用次数: 0
The Weimar/Russia Comparison Revisited 魏玛与俄罗斯的比较再看
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803007
Stephen E. Hanson, Jeffrey S Kopstein
Abstract Just over a quarter-century ago, the authors published a widely read essay comparing Weimar Germany and Post-Soviet Russia in historical perspective. After Russia’s unprovoked assault on Ukraine, comparisons of Vladimir Putin’s regime with Nazi Germany are once again tragically relevant. Reexamining our arguments from 1997 shows the continuing relevance of the variables we emphasized in that essay: the burdensome legacies of the past imperial regime, intense international pressure to marketize post-Soviet Russia’s statist economy, and Russia’s weak party system. Three main issues in our earlier article, in retrospect, required greater development: pinpointing the time span needed to assess regime change, distinguishing mobilizational and patrimonial forms of ‘anti-liberal statism,’ and exploring more fully the foreign policy options for would-be defenders of the liberal global order facing powerful revanchist challenges. We conclude that this sort of ‘replication’ of earlier research should be encouraged more often among political scientists adopting the comparative-historical approach.
就在25年前,作者发表了一篇广为流传的文章,从历史的角度比较了魏玛德国和后苏联时期的俄罗斯。在俄罗斯无端攻击乌克兰之后,弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)政权与纳粹德国的对比再一次具有悲剧性。重新审视我们从1997年开始的论点,会发现我们在那篇文章中强调的变量仍然具有相关性:过去帝国政权的繁重遗产,后苏联时代俄罗斯中央集权经济市场化的巨大国际压力,以及俄罗斯薄弱的政党制度。回顾过去,我们之前文章中的三个主要问题需要更大的发展:确定评估政权更迭所需的时间跨度,区分“反自由主义国家主义”的动员形式和世袭形式,以及更全面地探索面对强大复仇主义挑战的自由主义全球秩序的潜在捍卫者的外交政策选择。我们的结论是,采用比较历史方法的政治科学家应该更经常地鼓励这种对早期研究的“复制”。
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引用次数: 0
Legitimacies Conflict: The Evolution of Perceived Legitimacy in Modern Russia 合法性冲突:现代俄罗斯感知合法性的演变
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803004
Nikolay Ternov, Dmitry Mikhailov
The paper proposes a new interpretation of the evolution of legitimacy in Russia based on two pillars: the sociological tradition of legitimacy research, and David Easton’s typology. In this regard, the political process in Russia can be perceived as a conflicting coexistence of various legitimacies. The very conflicting variations begin to prevail in the public consciousness at certain stages of modern Russia existence, not forcing out each other completely.The trends that prevailed in the definition of Russian statehood allow us to distinguish three stages in the legitimacy evolution, which conditionally correspond to each decade of the existence of modern Russia: the “ideological” stage (90s-00s) and the “structural” one (00s-2012). We define the contemporary period as “personal” that emerged after 2012. The current political crisis in Russia is interpreted as a conflict of “structural” and “personal” legitimacy, that is unfolding against the backdrop of attempts by the authorities to compensate for the lack of trust, with technologies of “quick” self-legitimacy.
本文基于合法性研究的社会学传统和大卫·伊斯顿的类型学两大支柱,对俄罗斯合法性的演变提出了一种新的解释。在这方面,俄罗斯的政治进程可以被看作是各种合法性的冲突共存。在现代俄罗斯存在的某些阶段,这些相互冲突的变化开始在公众意识中盛行,而不是完全相互排挤。在俄罗斯国家地位定义中盛行的趋势使我们能够区分合法性演变的三个阶段,这些阶段有条件地对应于现代俄罗斯存在的每一个十年:“意识形态”阶段(90年代至00年代)和“结构”阶段(00年代至2012年)。我们将当代定义为2012年之后出现的“个人”时期。俄罗斯当前的政治危机被解读为“结构性”和“个人”合法性的冲突,这种冲突是在当局试图用“快速”自我合法性技术弥补信任缺失的背景下展开的。
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引用次数: 0
The 1999 Moscow Bombings Reconsidered 1999年莫斯科爆炸案再思考
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803005
Robert C. Otto
This paper examines the evidence that the Federal Security Service (FSB) was behind the 1999 apartment bombings to bring Vladimir Putin to power. Although this version of events may prove true, this article posits that evidence for this assertion is lacking and that current arguments for this version have considerable flaws. In addition, although the official version, despite its weaknesses may also well prove true, the paper posits an as yet an unexplored version to explain the bombings as an “inside job.” The paper looks at the atmosphere prevailing in Moscow that Fall and Berezovskii’s purported role in bringing Vladimir Putin to power which is often overstated. Nonetheless, Putin’s failure to conduct a proper investigation of the bombings makes him complicit in them.
本文研究了联邦安全局(FSB)是1999年弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)掌权公寓爆炸案幕后黑手的证据。尽管这一版本的事件可能被证明是真实的,但本文认为,缺乏这一断言的证据,而且目前这一版本中的论点存在相当大的缺陷。此外,尽管官方版本尽管存在弱点,但也很可能被证明是真的,但该论文提出了一个尚未探索的版本,将爆炸事件解释为“内部工作”。该论文着眼于莫斯科盛行的秋季气氛,以及别列佐夫斯基在让弗拉基米尔·普京上台中所扮演的角色,这一点往往被夸大了。尽管如此,普京未能对爆炸事件进行适当调查,这使他成为爆炸事件的同谋。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental Politics in Authoritarian Regimes: Waste Management in Russian Regions 威权体制下的环境政治:俄罗斯地区的废物管理
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803002
O. Masyutina, Ekaterina Paustyan, G. Yakovlev
Russian regions exhibit significant variation in their waste management efforts, despite the urgency of the problem and the importance of waste management for all regional governments. To examine this variation, we apply the concept of authoritarian environmentalism, which suggests that authoritarian governments have distinctive capabilities for tackling certain environmental challenges. Analysis of a regional panel data set for the period 2012-2019 shows that our measure of the degree of authoritarianism – the share of votes for the ruling party United Russia in parliamentary elections – has a strong positive effect on the share of recycled waste in the Russian regions. This result indicates that more authoritarian regions tend to recycle more household waste than less authoritarian regions. However, it could also be the case that more authoritarian governments are simply more likely to manipulate their environmental statistics to show better environmental performance.
尽管问题紧迫,废物管理对所有地区政府都很重要,但俄罗斯各地区在废物管理方面的努力差异很大。为了研究这种差异,我们采用了威权环境主义的概念,这表明威权政府在应对某些环境挑战方面具有独特的能力。对2012-2019年期间的区域面板数据集的分析表明,我们对威权主义程度的衡量标准——执政党统一俄罗斯党在议会选举中的得票率——对俄罗斯各地区回收废物的比例产生了强烈的积极影响。这一结果表明,威权程度较高的地区比威权程度较低的地区倾向于回收更多的生活垃圾。然而,也有可能是更专制的政府更有可能操纵他们的环境统计数据,以显示更好的环境绩效。
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引用次数: 0
Livid about Liberalism: Putin, State Controlled Television and Kremlin Portrayals of Liberalism 对自由主义怒不可遏:普京、国家控制的电视台和克里姆林宫对自由主义的描绘
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803003
Adam Sykes
Russian President Vladimir Putin has demonstrated a keen interest in questions of history and political theory over his more than two decades at or near the apex of Russian power. These questions became particularly salient in Russia’s political discourse after Putin returned to power in 2012 and inaugurated the so-called “conservative turn.” This paper examines how Putin characterized liberalism between his return to power in 2012 and the start of the “special military operation” in Ukraine on 24 February 2022. It contends that, over this decade, Putin consistently positioned himself as a moderate critic of Western liberalism as opposed to an uncompromising ideologue, even after the 2014 Ukraine crisis. To highlight this tendency, this paper simultaneously examines two prominent Russian state television personalities – Dmitrii Kiselev and Vladimir Solov’ev – who have used strident rhetoric in describing Western liberalism, notably after the 2014 crisis in Ukraine.
20多年来,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)一直对历史和政治理论问题表现出浓厚的兴趣。在普京2012年重新掌权并开启所谓的“保守转向”之后,这些问题在俄罗斯的政治话语中变得尤为突出。本文考察了普京在2012年重新掌权到2022年2月24日乌克兰“特别军事行动”开始之间是如何描述自由主义的。它认为,在过去十年中,普京一直将自己定位为西方自由主义的温和批评者,而不是不妥协的理论家,即使在2014年乌克兰危机之后也是如此。为了突出这一趋势,本文同时考察了两位著名的俄罗斯国家电视台名人——德米特里·基塞列夫和弗拉基米尔·索洛夫耶夫——他们在描述西方自由主义时使用了尖锐的言辞,尤其是在2014年乌克兰危机之后。
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引用次数: 0
“Shadow of the Empire”: Rethinking Russian Imperial Sovereignty in the Context of the War against Ukraine, 2022 “帝国的阴影”:在乌克兰战争背景下重新思考俄罗斯帝国主权,2022
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803006
R. Zaporozhchenko
Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine demonstrated the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions. The invasion was not only a shocking event, but also a process of geopolitical transformation. Russia, which has a long history of imperialism, in the 21st century is trying to break the established global world order and propose an alternative one. But the tools it uses are tools of violence, domination, blackmail, and intimidation. This is particularly important to explore in the context of the Russian leadership’s construction of imperial sovereignty, a form of political power used to expand and consolidate the empire’s influence in a particular geopolitical space: the post-Soviet space. This article aims to show the nature of Russian imperial sovereignty as well as the mechanisms of its dissemination, which are modus operandi – dynamic structures of reproduction of the system of power relations.
俄罗斯对乌克兰的军事入侵表明了克里姆林宫的帝国野心。入侵不仅是一个令人震惊的事件,也是一个地缘政治转型的过程。拥有悠久帝国主义历史的俄罗斯,在21世纪试图打破现有的世界秩序,提出另一种世界秩序。但它使用的工具是暴力、统治、勒索和恐吓。在俄罗斯领导层构建帝国主权的背景下,探索这一点尤为重要,帝国主权是一种政治权力形式,用于扩大和巩固帝国在特定地缘政治空间中的影响力:后苏联空间。本文旨在揭示俄罗斯帝国主权的本质及其传播机制,即权力关系体系再生产的动态结构。
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引用次数: 0
Strategic Coordination in the 2021 Russian Legislative Election: Effects and Counterbalances 2021年俄罗斯立法选举中的战略协调:影响与制衡
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00803001
Yu.O. Gaivoronsky
The study is devoted to strategic coordination represented as a list of “smart voting” candidates for single-member districts at the State Duma election on September 19, 2021. There is a great deal of skepticism in the literature that patterns of strategic voting can be found nationwide in Russia because of the prevalence of the personal vote in ticket splitting. The analysis of the election has confirmed that the effect of “smart voting” is rather small in contrast to the personal vote. Therefore, the attempt of the Russian non-systemic opposition to coordinate electorates strategically has not yet been an effective tool to mobilize voters on a country-wide scale. The study has also revealed strong counterbalances to “smart voting” like the incumbency advantage of United Russia’s nominees and the spoiler effect produced by candidates from the spoiler parties like the Communists of Russia and Party of Pensioners.
该研究致力于战略协调,如2021年9月19日国家杜马选举中单一成员区的“智能投票”候选人名单。文献中有很多人怀疑,由于个人投票在分票中的普遍性,俄罗斯全国范围内都可以找到战略投票模式。对选举的分析证实,与个人投票相比,“智能投票”的效果相当小。因此,俄罗斯非系统性反对派试图从战略上协调选民,尚未成为在全国范围内动员选民的有效工具。该研究还揭示了对“聪明投票”的有力制衡,如统一俄罗斯党提名人的在职优势,以及俄罗斯共产党和养老金领取者党等搅局党候选人产生的搅局效应。
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引用次数: 0
Cheering and Jeering on the Escalator to Hell: One Year of UK Media Coverage on the War in Ukraine 在通往地狱的自动扶梯上欢呼:英国媒体对乌克兰战争报道的一年
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-06-21 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00802006
Matthew Blackburn
While there is a common awareness of wartime media censorship in both Ukraine and Russia, there has been less research on Western media coverage and expert analysis of the war in Ukraine. This essay considers the extent to which a skewed and partisan version of the war’s evolution has been presented in UK media. Five stages are identified in the emergence and evolution of a British meta-narrative on the war in Ukraine, replete with ‘cheering’ and ‘jeering’, that works against a realistic understanding of the war’s nature and reasonable consideration of possible future scenarios. It is argued this coverage has sidestepped critical questions of the war’s stage-by-stage escalation and has essentially avoided serious debate of the risks, costs and benefits of such a course.
虽然乌克兰和俄罗斯都对战时媒体审查有着共同的认识,但对西方媒体报道和专家对乌克兰战争的分析的研究较少。这篇文章考虑了英国媒体对战争演变的歪曲和党派化报道的程度。英国关于乌克兰战争的元叙事的出现和演变分为五个阶段,充满了“欢呼”和“嘲笑”,这与对战争性质的现实理解和对未来可能情景的合理考虑背道而驰。有人认为,这一报道回避了战争逐步升级的关键问题,基本上避免了对这一过程的风险、成本和收益的严肃辩论。
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引用次数: 0
Introduction: Russia, Ukraine, and the West: Looking to the Future 简介:俄罗斯、乌克兰和西方:展望未来
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-06-21 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00802001
N. Petro
In this collection of essays, eight distinguished scholars, many with deep and personal knowledge of both Russia and Ukraine assess the impact of current events on long term relations between Ukraine, Russia, and the West. Since the issues raised by this crisis are at once indigenous to Ukraine, bilateral to Russia and Ukraine, and global, all three levels will need to be addressed before it can be resolved. This special issue examines some of the parameters that will need to be considered in doing so. Taken in toto, they encourage us to think comprehensively about the future, highlighting some of the pitfalls that will await us after the war.
在这本文集中,八位杰出学者评估了当前事件对乌克兰、俄罗斯和西方之间长期关系的影响,其中许多人对俄罗斯和乌克兰都有深入的个人了解。由于这场危机引发的问题既是乌克兰的本土问题,也是俄罗斯和乌克兰的双边问题,也是全球性问题,因此在解决这三个层面之前,都需要解决。本期特刊探讨了在这样做时需要考虑的一些参数。总的来说,它们鼓励我们全面思考未来,突出了战后等待我们的一些陷阱。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Russian Politics
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