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Political Logic of the “Municipal Filter” in Russia: Evidence from Perm Krai 2020 Elections 俄罗斯“市政过滤器”的政治逻辑:来自彼尔姆边疆区2020年选举的证据
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-09 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604029
V. Kovin, A. Semenov
In this paper, we investigate the endorsement strategies of municipal council members in Russia. Since 2012, the candidates for chief executive office are required to collect the signatures at the local level. Filtering had been an important political toll before the return of direct gubernatorial elections, however, for the latter there are specific requirements in terms of territorial quotas and coverage that can be used against the independent candidates. We theorize that partisanship, gender, and employment sector on individual level and political competition, population size, and budget autonomy on the municipality level are important in shaping the councilmembers’ decision. We test this theory against the data on 2020 Perm krai gubernatorial elections and find out that while the general pattern is largely in line with our expectations, there are nuances when it comes to supporting particular opposition candidates. This study contributes to the literature on electoral authoritarianism and subnational elections in Russia and to the general scholarship on the means of authoritarian control.
本文以俄罗斯市议会议员的支持策略为研究对象。自2012年以来,行政长官候选人必须收集地方一级的签名。在恢复直接省长选举之前,过滤是一个重要的政治代价,但是,对于直接省长选举来说,在领土配额和覆盖范围方面有具体的要求,可以用来对付独立候选人。我们的理论是,党派关系、性别、个人层面的就业部门和政治竞争、人口规模、市政自治层面的预算自治对形成议员的决定很重要。我们用2020年彼尔姆边疆区(Perm krai)州长选举的数据来检验这一理论,发现虽然总体模式在很大程度上符合我们的预期,但在支持特定反对派候选人方面存在细微差别。这项研究有助于研究俄罗斯选举威权主义和地方选举的文献,以及关于威权控制手段的一般学术研究。
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引用次数: 0
Russia’s Relations with the Countries of Latin America at the Beginning of the 21st Century: Four Levels of Interstate Interaction 21世纪初俄罗斯与拉美国家的关系:国家间互动的四个层面
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-07 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604027
E. Kosevich
This article examines the main stages in the development of relations between Russia and Latin America from 2000 to 2022. The research covers the entire set of bilateral cooperation between Russia and Latin American countries, and the internal and external factors influencing their evolution. The article presents the author’s view of interstate interactions from two perspectives – the foreign policy of Russia, and the national and international objectives of leading Latin American countries. The author concludes that for Russian foreign policy in the 21st century, all the countries of this region can be divided into four conditional groups: traditional partners, ideological allies, trade partners, and low priority states. This mapping of the region can explain the peculiarities of the formation of dialogue between Moscow and Latin American countries, and the possibilities and limits of interstate and interregional cooperation.
本文考察了2000年至2022年俄罗斯与拉丁美洲关系发展的主要阶段。该研究涵盖了俄罗斯与拉丁美洲国家之间的整套双边合作,以及影响其发展的内外部因素。本文从俄罗斯的外交政策和拉丁美洲主要国家的国家和国际目标两个角度阐述了作者对国家间互动的看法。作者认为,对于21世纪俄罗斯的外交政策,该地区的所有国家都可以分为四个有条件的群体:传统伙伴、意识形态盟友、贸易伙伴和低优先级国家。这一区域地图可以解释莫斯科与拉丁美洲国家之间形成对话的特点,以及国家间和区域间合作的可能性和局限性。
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引用次数: 1
The Birth of a New Pseudo-Historical Myth in Modern Russia: How Two Revolutions Were Made into One 一个新的伪历史神话在现代俄罗斯的诞生:两次革命是如何合二为一的
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-07 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604024
A. V. Grinëv
The branch of public knowledge that is designated as “historical science” has its own mythology. It is based not only on one-sided historical facts, but also on various theoretical concepts. Some historical and theoretical myths are peculiar to individual countries, while others are more widespread, for example, the myth of democracy as the power of the people. Now in Russia there is final approval for the concept of the “Great Russian Revolution of 1917,” which is another pseudoscientific myth that quite happily coexists with the old myth of socialism in the USSR. The new myth enjoys full support from the authorities and is positively accepted by the vast majority of the Russian scholarly community, which is entirely dependent on the state and adapts to its policies quite consciously or by force of habit. This article attempts not only to critically analyze the concept of the “Great Russian Revolution” as another phenomenon of Russian historical mythology, but also to present a different explanation for the events of 1917 in Russia.
被指定为“历史科学”的公共知识分支有自己的神话。它不仅基于片面的历史事实,而且基于各种各样的理论概念。一些历史和理论神话是个别国家特有的,而另一些则更为普遍,例如民主是人民力量的神话。现在,在俄罗斯,“1917年俄罗斯大革命”的概念得到了最终批准,这是另一个伪科学神话,与苏联社会主义的旧神话非常愉快地共存。这个新的神话得到了当局的全力支持,并得到了俄罗斯学术界绝大多数人的积极接受,他们完全依赖国家,并非常自觉地或习惯性地适应其政策。本文不仅试图批判性地分析“俄罗斯大革命”这一俄罗斯历史神话的另一现象的概念,而且试图对1917年发生在俄罗斯的事件做出不同的解释。
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引用次数: 0
Putin’s Rise to Power: Russian Roulette or Elite Pact? 普京的崛起:俄罗斯轮盘赌还是精英条约?
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-07 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604026
K. Petrov, A. Kazantsev, E. Minchenko, I. Loshkariov
The article is devoted to the current state of the discussion around transition of power in Russia in 1999-2001. The authors rely both on the patronal approach to show post-Soviet specificity and on the theory of neo-elitism to show its universal features. This transition was the point at which the highly differentiated post-Soviet elite was able to create a fragile base for integration. The article shows that it is possible to apply the theory of the elite pact to the Russian case, but the effects of the pact itself may ultimately differ from the trajectory of movement towards democracy predicted by the neo-elite theory. The trajectory deviates from the given one due to the patronal ribbon structures and the reversibility of the differentiation process. A new form of elite pact in Russia is possible, but the newborn elite coalition is doomed to be unsustainable unless a new constitutional reconsolidation follows.
本文主要介绍1999-2001年俄罗斯权力交接的讨论现状。作者既依靠赞助人的方法来展示后苏联的特殊性,又依靠新精英主义的理论来展示其普遍性特征。这一转变正是高度分化的后苏联精英能够为一体化创造脆弱基础的时刻。这篇文章表明,将精英协议理论应用于俄罗斯的案例是可能的,但协议本身的效果最终可能与新精英理论预测的民主运动轨迹不同。由于环带结构和微分过程的可逆性,轨迹偏离了给定的轨迹。在俄罗斯,一种新形式的精英协议是可能的,但除非新的宪法重组,否则新生的精英联盟注定是不可持续的。
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引用次数: 0
The Transformation of Russia’s Regional Elites: A System-Dynamics Model with Counterfactual Scenarios 1985-2019 俄罗斯地区精英的转型:一个具有反事实情景的系统动力学模型1985-2019
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-07 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604025
M. Crosston, Dmitry Seltser, D. Zhukov
The system-dynamic model elaborates processes for recruiting political elites across Russia’s regions from 1985 to 2019. The authors consider several counterfactual scenarios through computational simulations. The first series includes the radical disintegration of Soviet recruitment mechanisms. The second series elaborates the opposite scenario: the gradual evolution/preservation of Soviet continuity. The third series simulates a unique situation where Vladimir Putin abandons his policy for strengthening the “vertical of power.” A key finding is that the fight against new threats (crime, corruption, separatism) did not allow the center to realize the impact of traditional existing institutions that had corrosive and destructive power.
该系统动态模型阐述了1985年至2019年俄罗斯各地区招募政治精英的过程。作者通过计算模拟考虑了几个反事实场景。第一个系列包括苏联征兵机制的彻底解体。第二个系列阐述了相反的场景:苏联的连续性逐渐演变/保持。第三个系列模拟了一个独特的情况,弗拉基米尔·普京放弃了他加强“权力垂直”的政策。一个关键的发现是,打击新的威胁(犯罪、腐败、分离主义)并没有让该中心意识到具有腐蚀性和破坏性力量的传统现有机构的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Russian-Iranian Ties: Strategic Alliance, Strategic Coalition, or Strategic Alignment (Partnership) 俄伊关系:战略联盟、战略联盟还是战略结盟(伙伴关系)
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-07 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604023
A. Omidi
One of the most critical foreign policy issues of middle – power states is how to mold attitudes towards major powers. Since 1979, Iran has changed the nature of its relations with major powers. Although the Iranian Revolution adopted the ‘Neither East, Nor West’ motto as a macro guide to its foreign policy, since the late 1980s Iran and the Soviet Union – now Russia, have advanced their bilateral relations. Despite Iran and Russia sharing convergent views on many international issues, they have not promoted their ties to a strategic alliance. The present paper addresses the question of what conceptual model represents Iran-Russia relations and what challenges the two countries face in expanding their strategic partnership in the 2020s. This research addresses these problems at three levels: inter-state, regional, and global, and was conducted through a descriptive-analytical method. It is hypothesized that current Iran-Russia relations could be referred to as a ‘strategic alignment’.
如何塑造对大国的态度是中等实力国家外交政策中最关键的问题之一。自1979年以来,伊朗已经改变了与主要大国关系的性质。尽管伊朗革命将“非东方也非西方”的座右铭作为其外交政策的宏观指导方针,但自20世纪80年代末以来,伊朗和苏联(现在的俄罗斯)已经推进了双边关系。尽管伊朗和俄罗斯在许多国际问题上有着共同的观点,但它们并没有将两国关系提升为战略联盟。本文探讨了什么样的概念模型代表了伊朗与俄罗斯的关系,以及两国在21世纪20年代扩大战略伙伴关系时面临哪些挑战。本研究从国家间、区域和全球三个层面解决了这些问题,并通过描述分析方法进行了研究。据推测,目前伊朗与俄罗斯的关系可以被称为“战略联盟”。
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引用次数: 0
Why Allow Local Elections? Mobilization, Manipulation, and the Abolition of Russian Mayoral Elections 为什么允许地方选举?动员、操纵和废除俄罗斯市长选举
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-07-11 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604019
Cole J. Harvey
Local executives in electoral authoritarian regimes can perform important regime-sustaining functions, including by delivering votes to the ruling party at election-time. Furthermore, when local executives are themselves elected, regimes can benefit from improved legitimacy and efficiency in local government. Yet elected local executives can create principal-agent problems and increase the risk that opposition groups gain office. How do authoritarian governments manage this tension? Prior research on Russia shows that elections are used to co-opt strong local mayors, while weak mayors are replaced with appointed managers. This paper argues that strong mayors are more likely to see elections canceled if their local machine is not delivering manufactured electoral support to the national party, while weak mayors are unlikely to be targeted. This hypothesis is supported using data from 207 Russian cities, including election-forensic estimates of election manipulation. The findings improve our understanding of cooptation of local leaders in electoral authoritarian regimes.
在选举专制政权中,地方行政人员可以履行维持政权的重要职能,包括在选举期间向执政党输送选票。此外,当地方行政人员本身由选举产生时,政府可以从地方政府合法性和效率的提高中受益。然而,民选的地方行政官员可能会造成委托代理问题,并增加反对派团体上台的风险。专制政府如何处理这种紧张关系?先前对俄罗斯的研究表明,选举被用来拉拢强势的地方市长,而弱势的市长则被任命的管理者取代。本文认为,如果强势的市长所在的地方机器没有为国家政党提供人为的选举支持,那么他们更有可能看到选举被取消,而弱势的市长则不太可能成为攻击目标。这一假设得到了来自207个俄罗斯城市的数据的支持,其中包括对选举操纵的选举法医估计。这些发现提高了我们对选举专制政权中地方领导人的合作的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Vote Mobilization, Economic Performance and Gubernatorial Appointments in Russia 俄罗斯的选票动员、经济表现和州长任命
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-07-11 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604017
O. J. Reuter, R. Turovsky
This paper explores the impact of vote mobilization and economic performance on gubernatorial appointments in Russia. Previous research has demonstrated that governors are more likely to be reappointed when the regime is performing well at the polls in the region. By contrast, there is inconsistent evidence that regional economic performance affects a governor’s reappointment chances. We revisit this topic by updating and extending quantitative analyses of these key questions. We find consistent evidence that governors are more likely to be reappointed when regime vote shares are high in the region, a finding that extends from 2005 through 2020 and is robust to various model specifications and measurement approaches. In an update to existing research, we also show that this finding holds for multiple types of elections – regional legislative, State Duma and presidential – and we also find that high turnout is positively associated with governor reappointment. With respect to economic indicators, we find some suggestive evidence that governors are more likely to be reappointed when regional unemployment is decreasing, and investment and tax revenue are increasing, but these results are not robust. By evaluating governors on the basis of their ability to mobilize votes the center risks disincentivizing good governance. It may also give governors additional incentive to engage in electoral manipulation.
本文探讨了选票动员和经济表现对俄罗斯州长任命的影响。先前的研究表明,当该政权在该地区的民意调查中表现良好时,州长更有可能被重新任命。相比之下,有不一致的证据表明,地区经济表现会影响州长的连任机会。我们通过更新和扩展对这些关键问题的定量分析来重新审视这一主题。我们发现一致的证据表明,当该地区政权投票率较高时,州长更有可能被重新任命,这一发现从2005年延续到2020年,对各种模型规范和衡量方法都很有力。在对现有研究的更新中,我们还表明,这一发现适用于多种类型的选举——地区立法、国家杜马和总统选举——我们还发现,高投票率与州长连任呈正相关。关于经济指标,我们发现一些有启发性的证据表明,当地区失业率下降,投资和税收增加时,州长更有可能被重新任命,但这些结果并不乐观。通过根据州长调动选票的能力来评估他们,该中心有可能削弱良好治理。这也可能会给州长们更多的动力,让他们参与选举操纵。
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引用次数: 1
New Perspectives on Electoral Politics and Policy Under Putin 普京领导下的选举政治与政策新视角
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-07-11 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604016
Allison C. White, I. Saikkonen
This introduction to the special issue on Electoral Politics and Policy under Putin presents the central arguments of the contributors and situates those within the broader relevant literatures. Collectively, the articles cover a sweeping constellation of electoral issues that have become hallmark considerations of the Putin era, such as opposition party performance in a consolidated dictatorship, the election of women and minority candidates, corruption, electoral malfeasance, and cancelled elections. Many of the manuscripts address two central themes in the Russia-specific and comparative literature – first, how dictatorships coordinate machine politics, and second, explanations for why authoritarian regimes may struggle to capture electoral support, even when engaging in blatant and conspicuous forms of manipulation. The contributions shed light on the multifaceted challenges that the Putin regime faces today and suggest that the regime may be experiencing a type of widespread decay that is ultimately insurmountable.
普京领导下的选举政治与政策特刊的介绍介绍了撰稿人的核心论点,并将其置于更广泛的相关文献中。总的来说,这些文章涵盖了一系列广泛的选举问题,这些问题已成为普京时代的标志性考虑因素,如反对党在巩固独裁统治中的表现、妇女和少数族裔候选人的选举、腐败、选举渎职和取消选举。许多手稿涉及俄罗斯特定和比较文学中的两个中心主题——第一,独裁政权如何协调机器政治,第二,解释为什么独裁政权可能难以获得选举支持,即使是在进行公然和明显的操纵时。这些贡献揭示了普京政权今天面临的多方面挑战,并表明该政权可能正在经历一种最终无法克服的广泛衰退。
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引用次数: 0
Representation of Women and Ethnic Minorities in the Russian State Duma 1993-2021 1993-2021年俄罗斯国家杜马妇女和少数民族代表权
IF 0.8 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-07-11 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604022
R. Moser, M. Rybalko
Elections to the Russian State Duma provide a unique context to study the representation of women and ethnic minorities in a national legislature. Russian elections have witnessed dramatic institutional variation, including a shift from semi-democratic contestation to competitive authoritarianism and the use of different electoral systems. Moreover, ethnic federalism has produced political and demographic conditions that promote the representation of titular ethnic groups in ethnic republics. Finally, the transition from a fragmented party system to one controlled by a single dominant party potentially has important potential ramifications for women and minority representation. We use a unique dataset that codes the ethnicity and sex of individual legislators for each election from 1993 to 2021 to examine how regime type, electoral rules, demographic conditions, and party affiliation have affected descriptive representation in Russia. Using similar data on selected states from Eastern Europe, we compare Russia’s experience with that of other postcommunist states as well as the United States.
俄罗斯国家杜马选举为研究妇女和少数民族在国家立法机构中的代表性提供了一个独特的背景。俄罗斯选举出现了巨大的制度变化,包括从半民主竞争转向竞争性威权主义,以及使用不同的选举制度。此外,族裔联邦制产生了政治和人口条件,促进了名义上的族裔群体在族裔共和国的代表性。最后,从分散的政党制度过渡到由单一主导政党控制的政党制度,可能会对妇女和少数族裔代表产生重要的潜在影响。我们使用一个独特的数据集,对1993年至2021年每次选举中立法者的种族和性别进行编码,以研究俄罗斯的政权类型、选举规则、人口状况和党派关系如何影响描述性代表性。使用东欧选定国家的类似数据,我们将俄罗斯的经验与其他后共产主义国家以及美国的经验进行了比较。
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引用次数: 0
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Russian Politics
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