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Russia’s Relations with the Countries of Latin America at the Beginning of the 21st Century: Four Levels of Interstate Interaction 21世纪初俄罗斯与拉美国家的关系:国家间互动的四个层面
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-09-07 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604027
E. Kosevich
This article examines the main stages in the development of relations between Russia and Latin America from 2000 to 2022. The research covers the entire set of bilateral cooperation between Russia and Latin American countries, and the internal and external factors influencing their evolution. The article presents the author’s view of interstate interactions from two perspectives – the foreign policy of Russia, and the national and international objectives of leading Latin American countries. The author concludes that for Russian foreign policy in the 21st century, all the countries of this region can be divided into four conditional groups: traditional partners, ideological allies, trade partners, and low priority states. This mapping of the region can explain the peculiarities of the formation of dialogue between Moscow and Latin American countries, and the possibilities and limits of interstate and interregional cooperation.
本文考察了2000年至2022年俄罗斯与拉丁美洲关系发展的主要阶段。该研究涵盖了俄罗斯与拉丁美洲国家之间的整套双边合作,以及影响其发展的内外部因素。本文从俄罗斯的外交政策和拉丁美洲主要国家的国家和国际目标两个角度阐述了作者对国家间互动的看法。作者认为,对于21世纪俄罗斯的外交政策,该地区的所有国家都可以分为四个有条件的群体:传统伙伴、意识形态盟友、贸易伙伴和低优先级国家。这一区域地图可以解释莫斯科与拉丁美洲国家之间形成对话的特点,以及国家间和区域间合作的可能性和局限性。
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引用次数: 1
The Transformation of Russia’s Regional Elites: A System-Dynamics Model with Counterfactual Scenarios 1985-2019 俄罗斯地区精英的转型:一个具有反事实情景的系统动力学模型1985-2019
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-09-07 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604025
M. Crosston, Dmitry Seltser, D. Zhukov
The system-dynamic model elaborates processes for recruiting political elites across Russia’s regions from 1985 to 2019. The authors consider several counterfactual scenarios through computational simulations. The first series includes the radical disintegration of Soviet recruitment mechanisms. The second series elaborates the opposite scenario: the gradual evolution/preservation of Soviet continuity. The third series simulates a unique situation where Vladimir Putin abandons his policy for strengthening the “vertical of power.” A key finding is that the fight against new threats (crime, corruption, separatism) did not allow the center to realize the impact of traditional existing institutions that had corrosive and destructive power.
该系统动态模型阐述了1985年至2019年俄罗斯各地区招募政治精英的过程。作者通过计算模拟考虑了几个反事实场景。第一个系列包括苏联征兵机制的彻底解体。第二个系列阐述了相反的场景:苏联的连续性逐渐演变/保持。第三个系列模拟了一个独特的情况,弗拉基米尔·普京放弃了他加强“权力垂直”的政策。一个关键的发现是,打击新的威胁(犯罪、腐败、分离主义)并没有让该中心意识到具有腐蚀性和破坏性力量的传统现有机构的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Russian-Iranian Ties: Strategic Alliance, Strategic Coalition, or Strategic Alignment (Partnership) 俄伊关系:战略联盟、战略联盟还是战略结盟(伙伴关系)
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-09-07 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604023
A. Omidi
One of the most critical foreign policy issues of middle – power states is how to mold attitudes towards major powers. Since 1979, Iran has changed the nature of its relations with major powers. Although the Iranian Revolution adopted the ‘Neither East, Nor West’ motto as a macro guide to its foreign policy, since the late 1980s Iran and the Soviet Union – now Russia, have advanced their bilateral relations. Despite Iran and Russia sharing convergent views on many international issues, they have not promoted their ties to a strategic alliance. The present paper addresses the question of what conceptual model represents Iran-Russia relations and what challenges the two countries face in expanding their strategic partnership in the 2020s. This research addresses these problems at three levels: inter-state, regional, and global, and was conducted through a descriptive-analytical method. It is hypothesized that current Iran-Russia relations could be referred to as a ‘strategic alignment’.
如何塑造对大国的态度是中等实力国家外交政策中最关键的问题之一。自1979年以来,伊朗已经改变了与主要大国关系的性质。尽管伊朗革命将“非东方也非西方”的座右铭作为其外交政策的宏观指导方针,但自20世纪80年代末以来,伊朗和苏联(现在的俄罗斯)已经推进了双边关系。尽管伊朗和俄罗斯在许多国际问题上有着共同的观点,但它们并没有将两国关系提升为战略联盟。本文探讨了什么样的概念模型代表了伊朗与俄罗斯的关系,以及两国在21世纪20年代扩大战略伙伴关系时面临哪些挑战。本研究从国家间、区域和全球三个层面解决了这些问题,并通过描述分析方法进行了研究。据推测,目前伊朗与俄罗斯的关系可以被称为“战略联盟”。
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引用次数: 0
Why Allow Local Elections? Mobilization, Manipulation, and the Abolition of Russian Mayoral Elections 为什么允许地方选举?动员、操纵和废除俄罗斯市长选举
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-07-11 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604019
Cole J. Harvey
Local executives in electoral authoritarian regimes can perform important regime-sustaining functions, including by delivering votes to the ruling party at election-time. Furthermore, when local executives are themselves elected, regimes can benefit from improved legitimacy and efficiency in local government. Yet elected local executives can create principal-agent problems and increase the risk that opposition groups gain office. How do authoritarian governments manage this tension? Prior research on Russia shows that elections are used to co-opt strong local mayors, while weak mayors are replaced with appointed managers. This paper argues that strong mayors are more likely to see elections canceled if their local machine is not delivering manufactured electoral support to the national party, while weak mayors are unlikely to be targeted. This hypothesis is supported using data from 207 Russian cities, including election-forensic estimates of election manipulation. The findings improve our understanding of cooptation of local leaders in electoral authoritarian regimes.
在选举专制政权中,地方行政人员可以履行维持政权的重要职能,包括在选举期间向执政党输送选票。此外,当地方行政人员本身由选举产生时,政府可以从地方政府合法性和效率的提高中受益。然而,民选的地方行政官员可能会造成委托代理问题,并增加反对派团体上台的风险。专制政府如何处理这种紧张关系?先前对俄罗斯的研究表明,选举被用来拉拢强势的地方市长,而弱势的市长则被任命的管理者取代。本文认为,如果强势的市长所在的地方机器没有为国家政党提供人为的选举支持,那么他们更有可能看到选举被取消,而弱势的市长则不太可能成为攻击目标。这一假设得到了来自207个俄罗斯城市的数据的支持,其中包括对选举操纵的选举法医估计。这些发现提高了我们对选举专制政权中地方领导人的合作的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Vote Mobilization, Economic Performance and Gubernatorial Appointments in Russia 俄罗斯的选票动员、经济表现和州长任命
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-07-11 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604017
O. J. Reuter, R. Turovsky
This paper explores the impact of vote mobilization and economic performance on gubernatorial appointments in Russia. Previous research has demonstrated that governors are more likely to be reappointed when the regime is performing well at the polls in the region. By contrast, there is inconsistent evidence that regional economic performance affects a governor’s reappointment chances. We revisit this topic by updating and extending quantitative analyses of these key questions. We find consistent evidence that governors are more likely to be reappointed when regime vote shares are high in the region, a finding that extends from 2005 through 2020 and is robust to various model specifications and measurement approaches. In an update to existing research, we also show that this finding holds for multiple types of elections – regional legislative, State Duma and presidential – and we also find that high turnout is positively associated with governor reappointment. With respect to economic indicators, we find some suggestive evidence that governors are more likely to be reappointed when regional unemployment is decreasing, and investment and tax revenue are increasing, but these results are not robust. By evaluating governors on the basis of their ability to mobilize votes the center risks disincentivizing good governance. It may also give governors additional incentive to engage in electoral manipulation.
本文探讨了选票动员和经济表现对俄罗斯州长任命的影响。先前的研究表明,当该政权在该地区的民意调查中表现良好时,州长更有可能被重新任命。相比之下,有不一致的证据表明,地区经济表现会影响州长的连任机会。我们通过更新和扩展对这些关键问题的定量分析来重新审视这一主题。我们发现一致的证据表明,当该地区政权投票率较高时,州长更有可能被重新任命,这一发现从2005年延续到2020年,对各种模型规范和衡量方法都很有力。在对现有研究的更新中,我们还表明,这一发现适用于多种类型的选举——地区立法、国家杜马和总统选举——我们还发现,高投票率与州长连任呈正相关。关于经济指标,我们发现一些有启发性的证据表明,当地区失业率下降,投资和税收增加时,州长更有可能被重新任命,但这些结果并不乐观。通过根据州长调动选票的能力来评估他们,该中心有可能削弱良好治理。这也可能会给州长们更多的动力,让他们参与选举操纵。
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引用次数: 1
New Perspectives on Electoral Politics and Policy Under Putin 普京领导下的选举政治与政策新视角
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-07-11 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604016
Allison C. White, I. Saikkonen
This introduction to the special issue on Electoral Politics and Policy under Putin presents the central arguments of the contributors and situates those within the broader relevant literatures. Collectively, the articles cover a sweeping constellation of electoral issues that have become hallmark considerations of the Putin era, such as opposition party performance in a consolidated dictatorship, the election of women and minority candidates, corruption, electoral malfeasance, and cancelled elections. Many of the manuscripts address two central themes in the Russia-specific and comparative literature – first, how dictatorships coordinate machine politics, and second, explanations for why authoritarian regimes may struggle to capture electoral support, even when engaging in blatant and conspicuous forms of manipulation. The contributions shed light on the multifaceted challenges that the Putin regime faces today and suggest that the regime may be experiencing a type of widespread decay that is ultimately insurmountable.
普京领导下的选举政治与政策特刊的介绍介绍了撰稿人的核心论点,并将其置于更广泛的相关文献中。总的来说,这些文章涵盖了一系列广泛的选举问题,这些问题已成为普京时代的标志性考虑因素,如反对党在巩固独裁统治中的表现、妇女和少数族裔候选人的选举、腐败、选举渎职和取消选举。许多手稿涉及俄罗斯特定和比较文学中的两个中心主题——第一,独裁政权如何协调机器政治,第二,解释为什么独裁政权可能难以获得选举支持,即使是在进行公然和明显的操纵时。这些贡献揭示了普京政权今天面临的多方面挑战,并表明该政权可能正在经历一种最终无法克服的广泛衰退。
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引用次数: 0
Representation of Women and Ethnic Minorities in the Russian State Duma 1993-2021 1993-2021年俄罗斯国家杜马妇女和少数民族代表权
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-07-11 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604022
R. Moser, M. Rybalko
Elections to the Russian State Duma provide a unique context to study the representation of women and ethnic minorities in a national legislature. Russian elections have witnessed dramatic institutional variation, including a shift from semi-democratic contestation to competitive authoritarianism and the use of different electoral systems. Moreover, ethnic federalism has produced political and demographic conditions that promote the representation of titular ethnic groups in ethnic republics. Finally, the transition from a fragmented party system to one controlled by a single dominant party potentially has important potential ramifications for women and minority representation. We use a unique dataset that codes the ethnicity and sex of individual legislators for each election from 1993 to 2021 to examine how regime type, electoral rules, demographic conditions, and party affiliation have affected descriptive representation in Russia. Using similar data on selected states from Eastern Europe, we compare Russia’s experience with that of other postcommunist states as well as the United States.
俄罗斯国家杜马选举为研究妇女和少数民族在国家立法机构中的代表性提供了一个独特的背景。俄罗斯选举出现了巨大的制度变化,包括从半民主竞争转向竞争性威权主义,以及使用不同的选举制度。此外,族裔联邦制产生了政治和人口条件,促进了名义上的族裔群体在族裔共和国的代表性。最后,从分散的政党制度过渡到由单一主导政党控制的政党制度,可能会对妇女和少数族裔代表产生重要的潜在影响。我们使用一个独特的数据集,对1993年至2021年每次选举中立法者的种族和性别进行编码,以研究俄罗斯的政权类型、选举规则、人口状况和党派关系如何影响描述性代表性。使用东欧选定国家的类似数据,我们将俄罗斯的经验与其他后共产主义国家以及美国的经验进行了比较。
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引用次数: 0
The Political Ramifications of Corruption Experience for Political Trust and Pro-Leadership Voting: Evidence from Russia 腐败经验对政治信任和亲领导投票的政治影响:来自俄罗斯的证据
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-07-11 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604021
W. Reisinger, Marina Zaloznaya, Haofeng Ma
How do citizens’ experiences of corruption affect their political trust and voting behavior? By analyzing a nationally representative survey of Russian citizens conducted a few months after the 2018 presidential election, we find that citizens who engaged in street-level bureaucratic corruption in the preceding two years assess the national leadership as more corrupt and express lower trust in them. This association between corruption engagement and a worsening of people’s views remains even when citizens gained benefits by providing officials with an incentive. We also show that higher perceptions of elite corruption and lower trust in the political leadership are important factors in reducing pro-Kremlin voting. Our findings indicate that even in an authoritarian country citizens’ negative experiences with bureaucracy reduce political support for the national political regime.
公民的腐败经历如何影响他们的政治信任和投票行为?通过分析2018年总统大选后几个月对俄罗斯公民进行的一项具有全国代表性的调查,我们发现,在过去两年中参与街头官僚腐败的公民认为国家领导层更腐败,对他们的信任度也更低。即使当公民通过向官员提供激励而获得利益时,参与腐败与民众观点恶化之间的这种联系仍然存在。我们还表明,对精英腐败的较高认知和对政治领导层的较低信任是减少亲克里姆林宫投票的重要因素。我们的研究结果表明,即使在专制国家,公民对官僚主义的负面经历也会减少对国家政权的政治支持。
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引用次数: 0
Signaling Games of Election Fraud: A Case of Russia 选举舞弊的信号游戏:以俄罗斯为例
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-07-11 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604018
K. Kalinin
Over the 2000s Russian elections have become increasingly unfree and unfair, characterized by suppression of electoral competition, rising levels of administrative interference and drastic growth of electoral frauds. In this paper I propose that the pattern of fraudulent elections in Russia can be explained by combining an idea about federalism with a game-theoretic model of the relationship between the Kremlin and a single regional governor. Specifically, election fraud becomes a basic signaling mechanism of regional bosses’ loyalty and of their ability to control the administrative resources to the Kremlin’s benefit. If electoral signaling occurs, data manipulation is most likely to take place with 0s and 5s in the last digit of rounded percentages of turnout and electoral support, which is the easiest and most readily detected way to report basic information to superiors. Based on the Russian electoral and financial data for 2000-2018, my analysis shows strong evidence of election fraud associated with the post-electoral interbudgetary transfers.
2000年代以来,俄罗斯的选举变得越来越不自由和不公平,其特点是压制选举竞争,行政干预程度不断上升,选举舞弊现象急剧增加。在本文中,我提出,俄罗斯欺诈选举的模式可以通过将联邦制的观点与克里姆林宫和单一地区州长之间关系的博弈论模型相结合来解释。具体而言,选举舞弊成为地区领导人忠诚的基本信号机制,以及他们控制行政资源以造福克里姆林宫的能力。如果发生选举信号,数据操纵最有可能发生在投票率和选举支持率四舍五入百分比的最后一位0和5,这是向上级报告基本信息的最简单、最容易检测到的方式。根据俄罗斯2000-2018年的选举和财务数据,我的分析显示,有强有力的证据表明,选举后的跨预算转移存在选举舞弊。
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引用次数: 0
The Party of People’s Distrust: The Roots of Electoral Success of the Communists in 2021 人民不信任的政党:2021年共产党选举成功的根源
IF 0.8 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-07-11 DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604020
M. Zavadskaya, A. Rumiantseva
After the 2021 State Duma elections, the Communist Party of Russia Federation (KPRF) re-appeared on the Russian political landscape as a new political force with new faces and creative local campaigns. How and why were the communists being treated by most of the analysts and voters as systemic and rather passive opposition successfully accumulated political resistance and grievances at the polls in September 2021? In this study, we argue that mobilization against the pension reform in 2018 proved to be the crucial determinant of the electoral outcomes three years later. The latter provides evidence that protests bring about long-term consequences on voting behavior not only in democracies, but also in autocratic states. We rely on the original dataset on protests in 381 large Russian cities (more than 20,000 residents) that took place in Summer-Fall 2018 merged with the electoral data of the Duma elections in 2016 and 2021.
2021年国家杜马选举后,俄罗斯联邦共产党(KPRF)以新面孔和创造性的地方竞选活动重新出现在俄罗斯政治版图上。在2021年9月的民意调查中,大多数分析人士和选民如何以及为什么将共产党视为系统性的、相当被动的反对派,成功地积累了政治阻力和不满?在这项研究中,我们认为,2018年反对养老金改革的动员被证明是三年后选举结果的关键决定因素。后者提供了证据,证明抗议活动不仅在民主国家,而且在专制国家都会对投票行为产生长期影响。我们依赖于2018年夏秋发生的381个俄罗斯大城市(超过20000名居民)抗议活动的原始数据集,以及2016年和2021年杜马选举的选举数据。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Russian Politics
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