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Domestic constraints in crisis bargaining 危机谈判中的国内制约因素
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-28 DOI: 10.1177/20531680221135432
Liqun Liu
This paper analyzes an agency model of crisis bargaining where two states have private information about war payoffs. In the model, two leaders bargain on behalf of their own states. Importantly, owing to political bias and audience costs, a leader’s war payoff and peace payoff differ from those of her state at large. I establish general results about leaders’ bargaining strategies and the possibility of peaceful resolution. By examining incentive compatibility constraints, I show that in any equilibrium that has zero probability of costly war, a leader’s payoff net of audience costs cannot vary with their private information. After that, I identify the size of resource necessary to appease both states. If this necessary condition holds, which is affected by political bias, there exist properly specified audience costs that guarantee peaceful bargaining outcomes.
本文分析了两国拥有战争收益私有信息的危机议价代理模型。在该模型中,两位领导人代表各自的国家进行谈判。重要的是,由于政治偏见和受众成本,领导人的战争和和平回报与她所在国家的整体回报不同。我建立了关于领导人的谈判策略和和平解决的可能性的一般结果。通过考察激励兼容性约束,我证明了在任何代价高昂的战争概率为零的均衡中,领导者的听众成本净收益不会随着他们的私人信息而变化。在此之后,我将确定满足两种状态所需的资源大小。如果这一必要条件成立,并受到政治偏见的影响,则存在适当规定的听众成本,以保证和平的谈判结果。
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引用次数: 0
Turning discontent into votes: Economic inequality and ethnic outbidding 把不满转化为选票:经济不平等和种族竞争
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211067881
Ronald J. McGauvran, Brandon M Stewart
Ethnic outbidding, where parties adopt ever more extreme positions to capture electoral advantage, has become an increasingly common practice among ethnic parties. As economic issues have often served as a catalyst for ethnic tension, increasing levels of economic inequality should lead parties to adopt more extreme positions in an attempt to outbid one another. Furthermore, as their economic and ethnic platforms will appeal to the same ethnically defined constituency, ethnic outbidding should be more effective where inequality is high. Using a sample of over 150 ethnonational parties in Europe between 2011 and 2017, this paper finds that inequality is linked to increasing ideological extremism along a number of policy dimensions. Employing local-level voting data for Romania and Slovakia, we show that higher inequality makes adopting a more ideological extreme position a more successful electoral strategy, especially where economic issues are ethnically salient.
在少数民族政党中,为了获得选举优势,政党采取越来越极端的立场,这已经成为越来越普遍的做法。由于经济问题经常成为种族紧张关系的催化剂,经济不平等程度的加剧应该会导致政党采取更极端的立场,试图在出价上超过对方。此外,由于他们的经济和种族平台将吸引相同的种族界定选区,在不平等程度高的地方,种族竞价应该更有效。本文使用2011年至2017年间欧洲150多个民族政党的样本,发现不平等与意识形态极端主义在许多政策维度上的加剧有关。我们利用罗马尼亚和斯洛伐克的地方一级投票数据表明,不平等加剧使得采取更极端的意识形态立场成为一种更成功的选举策略,尤其是在经济问题在种族问题上很突出的地方。
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引用次数: 0
Visiting the hegemon: Explaining diplomatic visits to the United States 访问霸权:解释对美国的外交访问
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211066767
Faradj Koliev, Magnus Lundgren
Diplomacy is a chief instrument of foreign policy. Through high-level diplomatic visits, governments can facilitate cooperation and signal the quality of their relations with other states. Because host countries cannot receive an indefinite number of visits, they must make strategic decisions, prioritizing some countries over others. This reveals information about their foreign policy priorities as well as diplomatic hierarchies and practices in the system as a whole. But what determines high-level diplomatic visits? Existing scholarship disagrees. In this research note, we assess the determinants of high-level diplomatic visits to the U.S. Theoretically, we draw on previous studies and formulate structural, domestic, and practice-oriented accounts of high-level visits as tools of foreign policy. Empirically, we gather original data on diplomatic visits to the U.S. by foreign leaders from 1946 to 2012. Our main results are two-fold. First, high-level diplomatic visits to the U.S. are primarily determined by structural factors such as economic relations. Second, we find clear differences in invited country profiles during and after the Cold War, demonstrating that high-level visits are used strategically to promote shifting foreign policy priorities.
外交是外交政策的主要工具。通过高层外交访问,各国政府可以促进合作,并表明其与其他国家关系的质量。由于东道国不能无限期地接受访问,它们必须做出战略决策,优先考虑一些国家而不是其他国家。这揭示了他们外交政策优先事项的信息,以及整个体系中的外交等级和做法。但是,是什么决定了高层外交访问?现有的奖学金不同意。在本研究报告中,我们评估了高级别外交访问美国的决定因素。理论上,我们借鉴了以往的研究,并将高级别访问作为外交政策的工具,从结构、国内和实践角度进行了阐述。根据经验,我们收集了1946年至2012年外国领导人对美国外交访问的原始数据。我们的主要结果有两个方面。首先,美国高层外交访问主要由经济关系等结构性因素决定。其次,我们发现冷战期间和之后受邀国家的情况存在明显差异,这表明高层访问在战略上被用来促进外交政策优先事项的转变。
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引用次数: 1
Do people want smarter ballots? 人们想要更智能的选票吗?
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211062668
A. Blais, C. Plescia, Semra Sevi
We ascertain whether citizens want to have smart ballots, that is, whether they appreciate having the possibility to express some support for more than one option (expression across options) and to indicate different levels of support for these options (expression within options). We conducted two independent yet complementary survey experiments at the time of the Super Tuesday Democratic primaries to examine which voting method citizens prefer, one with the real candidates in the states holding Democratic primaries and one with fictitious candidates in the whole country. In both surveys, respondents were asked to vote using four different voting rules: single, approval, rank, and point (score). After they cast their vote, respondents were asked how satisfied they were using each voting method. The findings are consistent in both studies: the single vote is the most preferred voting method. We show that this is a reflection of a status quo bias, as citizens’ views are strongly correlated with age.
我们确定公民是否希望进行智能投票,也就是说,他们是否欣赏有可能对多个选项表示某种支持(跨选项表达),并表示对这些选项的不同支持程度(选项内表达)。在超级星期二民主党初选期间,我们进行了两项独立但互补的调查实验,以检验公民更喜欢哪种投票方式,一项是针对举行民主党初选的州的真实候选人,另一项是全国的虚构候选人。在这两项调查中,受访者都被要求使用四种不同的投票规则进行投票:单一、赞成、排名和分数。在他们投票后,受访者被问及他们对每种投票方法的满意度。两项研究的结果一致:单票投票是最受欢迎的投票方式。我们表明,这反映了现状偏见,因为公民的观点与年龄密切相关。
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引用次数: 0
When a conspiracy theory goes mainstream, people feel more positive toward conspiracy theorists 当阴谋论成为主流时,人们对阴谋论者的态度会更加积极
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211067640
Curtis Bram
This paper uses an experiment and a follow-up survey immediately before and after the publicly revealed results of the Department of Defense’s 2021 report on unidentified flying object (UFO) origins to test how public opinion changes when government leaders across the political spectrum take an issue that had been on the margins of respectability seriously. In both studies, I find that when politicians acknowledge the possibility that UFOs are extraterrestrial visitors, people report more positive attitudes toward those who believe in conspiracies in general. Implications are that when government leaders publicly walk back a long-held consensus that a particular issue is not worth serious consideration, they may cause people to feel more favorable toward those perceived to hold other fringe views.
这篇论文使用了一项实验和一项后续调查,在国防部2021年关于不明飞行物起源的报告公开公布前后,来测试当各个政治派别的政府领导人认真对待一个原本不受尊重的问题时,公众舆论是如何变化的。在这两项研究中,我发现,当政客们承认不明飞行物是外星访客的可能性时,人们对那些普遍相信阴谋的人持更积极的态度。这意味着,当政府领导人公开推翻一个长期以来的共识,即某个特定问题不值得认真考虑时,他们可能会让人们对那些被认为持有其他边缘观点的人更加有利。
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引用次数: 1
Do TJ policies cause backlash? Evidence from street name changes in Spain TJ政策会引起反弹吗?西班牙街道名称变化的证据
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211058550
Francisco Villamil, Laia Balcells
Memories of old conflicts often shape domestic politics long after these conflicts end. Contemporary debates about past civil wars and/or repressive regimes in different parts of the world suggest that these are sensitive topics that might increase political polarization, particularly when transitional justice policies are implemented and political parties mobilize discontentment with such policies. One such policy recently debated in Spain is removing public symbols linked to a past civil war and subsequent authoritarian regime (i.e., Francoism). However, the empirical evidence on its impact is still limited. This article attempts to fill this gap by examining the political consequences of street renaming. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we show that the removal of Francoist street names has contributed to an increase of electoral support for a new far-right party, Vox, mainly at the expense of a traditional right-wing conservative party, PP. Our results suggest that revisiting the past can cause a backlash among those ideologically aligned with the perpetrator, and that some political parties can capitalize on this.
对旧冲突的记忆往往会在这些冲突结束很久之后影响国内政治。当代关于世界不同地区过去内战和/或镇压政权的辩论表明,这些都是敏感话题,可能会加剧政治两极分化,特别是在实施过渡司法政策和政党动员对这些政策不满的情况下。西班牙最近讨论的一项政策是取消与过去内战和随后的独裁政权(即法语主义)有关的公共象征。然而,关于其影响的经验证据仍然有限。本文试图通过考察街道更名的政治后果来填补这一空白。使用差异中的差异方法,我们发现,删除法语街道名称有助于增加对新的极右翼政党Vox的选举支持,这主要是以牺牲传统右翼保守党PP为代价的,一些政党可以利用这一点。
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引用次数: 7
Linking individual and group motives for violent conflict 将暴力冲突的个人和群体动机联系起来
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211061056
Matthew Nanes
Research on the role of grievances in civil conflict is surprisingly inconclusive, with well-cited studies disagreeing on the relationship between perceived deprivation and violence. I argue that the role of grievances depends on an interaction between individual and group-level incentives. Individuals who perceive themselves as personally deprived are more likely to support or participate in anti-regime violence, but only if a successful rebellion would enhance their group’s power relative to the status quo. I test this argument in the context of Iraq’s sectarian civil war using data from a 2016 survey of 800 Baghdad residents. Using a list experiment to measure individuals’ willingness to consider violence against a government they feel is ignoring their needs, I find that minority Sunnis who are economically dissatisfied are significantly more willing to consider violence than similarly aggrieved Shias. However, as economic satisfaction increases, Sunnis’ propensity for violence decreases until it becomes indistinguishable from Shias’ propensity. These results clarify the joint impacts of vertical and horizontal grievances. Group inequality and individual deprivation are each necessary but not sufficient to fully explain individuals’ propensities for anti-state violence.
令人惊讶的是,关于不满情绪在国内冲突中的作用的研究没有定论,许多被引用的研究都不同意感知剥夺与暴力之间的关系。我认为,不满情绪的作用取决于个人和群体层面的激励机制之间的相互作用。那些认为自己被剥夺了个人权利的人更有可能支持或参与反政府暴力,但前提是一场成功的叛乱能够增强他们所在群体相对于现状的权力。我用2016年对800名巴格达居民的调查数据,在伊拉克宗派内战的背景下检验了这一观点。我用一个列表实验来衡量个人考虑对一个他们认为忽视他们需求的政府采取暴力的意愿,我发现,在经济上不满意的少数逊尼派比同样愤愤不平的什叶派更愿意考虑暴力。然而,随着经济满意度的提高,逊尼派的暴力倾向减少,直到与什叶派的倾向难以区分。这些结果阐明了垂直和水平委屈的共同影响。群体不平等和个人剥夺都是必要的,但不足以充分解释个人的反国家暴力倾向。
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引用次数: 1
Democracy, external threat, and military spending 民主、外部威胁和军费开支
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211049660
Matthew Hauenstein, Marcellius Smith, Mark Souva
A number of studies find that democracies spend less on their military than non-democracies. Yet there are well known counter-examples, including but not limited to the United States and Israel. We contend that these counter-examples are part of a larger pattern. The relationship between regime type and military spending is conditional on external threat. Among countries that do not perceive a significant external threat to their interests, democracies allocate considerably less to the military than non-democracies. However, democracies with a significant external threat do not allocate less to the military than non-democracies. The reason prior research consistently finds that democracies, on average, spend less on the military, even while controlling for external threat, is that democracies are much less likely to have a high external threat. For example, autocracies are nearly twice as likely as democracies to have a significant external threat in our sample. An empirical analysis of military spending from 1952–2000 is consistent with these expectations.
许多研究发现,民主国家在军事上的支出低于非民主国家。然而,也有众所周知的反例,包括但不限于美国和以色列。我们认为,这些反例是一个更大模式的一部分。政权类型与军费开支之间的关系取决于外部威胁。在那些认为自己的利益没有受到重大外部威胁的国家中,民主国家对军队的拨款远低于非民主国家。然而,具有重大外部威胁的民主国家对军队的拨款并不比非民主国家少。先前的研究一直发现,民主国家平均在军事上的支出更少,即使在控制外部威胁的情况下也是如此,原因是民主国家不太可能受到高度外部威胁。例如,在我们的样本中,独裁国家受到重大外部威胁的可能性几乎是民主国家的两倍。对1952年至2000年军费开支的实证分析与这些预期一致。
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引用次数: 2
On the reliability of published findings using the regression discontinuity design in political science 基于回归不连续性设计的政治学研究成果的可靠性
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-29 DOI: 10.1177/20531680231166457
Drew Stommes, P. Aronow, F. Sävje
The regression discontinuity (RD) design offers identification of causal effects under weak assumptions, earning it a position as a standard method in modern political science research. But identification does not necessarily imply that causal effects can be estimated accurately with limited data. In this paper, we highlight that estimation under the RD design involves serious statistical challenges and investigate how these challenges manifest themselves in the empirical literature in political science. We collect all RD-based findings published in top political science journals in the period 2009–2018. The distribution of published results exhibits pathological features; estimates tend to bunch just above the conventional level of statistical significance. A reanalysis of all studies with available data suggests that researcher discretion is not a major driver of these features. However, researchers tend to use inappropriate methods for inference, rendering standard errors artificially small. A retrospective power analysis reveals that most of these studies were underpowered to detect all but large effects. The issues we uncover, combined with well-documented selection pressures in academic publishing, cause concern that many published findings using the RD design may be exaggerated.
回归不连续性(RD)设计提供了在弱假设下识别因果效应的方法,使其成为现代政治学研究的标准方法。但识别并不一定意味着可以用有限的数据准确估计因果效应。在本文中,我们强调了RD设计下的估计涉及严重的统计挑战,并调查了这些挑战如何在政治学的实证文献中表现出来。我们收集了2009-2018年期间发表在顶级政治科学期刊上的所有基于研发的研究结果。已发表结果的分布表现出病理学特征;估计值往往略高于传统的统计显著性水平。根据现有数据对所有研究进行的重新分析表明,研究人员的谨慎并不是这些特征的主要驱动因素。然而,研究人员倾向于使用不适当的方法进行推理,人为地使标准误差变小。回顾性功率分析显示,这些研究中的大多数都没有足够的功率来检测除大影响外的所有影响。我们发现的问题,加上学术出版中有据可查的选择压力,引起了人们的担忧,即许多使用RD设计的已发表研究结果可能被夸大了。
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引用次数: 12
What type of democracy do Chileans want? 智利人想要什么样的民主?
IF 2.7 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/20531680211031045
Shane P. Singh, N. S. Williams
Chile is undergoing perhaps the most dramatic reformation of any contemporary democracy and will adopt a wholly new constitution in the coming two years. Against this backdrop, in this Research Note we investigate which democratic features Chileans prefer. To so do, we field a conjoint experiment with a large quota sample of Chileans. Results reveal that Chileans have several distinct preferences over democratic features that are currently subject to change. We also find that these preferences are largely indistinguishable within demographic subgroups. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings in light of Chile’s ongoing processes of democratic reform and lessons for other democracies.
智利正在经历也许是当代民主国家中最具戏剧性的改革,并将在未来两年内通过一部全新的宪法。在此背景下,在本研究报告中,我们调查了智利人更喜欢的民主特征。为此,我们对大量的智利人进行了联合实验。结果显示,智利人对民主特征有几个明显的偏好,这些偏好目前可能会发生变化。我们还发现,这些偏好在人口统计子群体中基本上是无法区分的。最后,我们根据智利正在进行的民主改革进程和对其他民主国家的教训讨论了我们的调查结果的影响。
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引用次数: 1
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Research and Politics
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