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The local elections of 2021. Voting in the large cities 2021年的地方选举。大城市的投票
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/23248823.2022.2051831
S. Vassallo
ABSTRACT The 2021 round of Italian local elections involved a total of 1,339 municipalities. However, the attention of political leaders and the media was almost entirely focused on the competitions in the five largest cities (Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin and Bologna) which were seen as a national political test. The media placed the greatest emphasis on suggestions that the results were a surprising victory for the centre left, marking an important shift in the electoral balance of power between the parties. This article documents the extent of this ‘victory’, examines what was responsible for it and considers its possible effects on politics at the national level. The analysis is based on a new dataset created by the Cattaneo Institute which allows a spatial analysis of voting within each city for all elections over a period of more than twenty years. This allows us to examine not only voting trends over time, but also how votes have been distributed in the different areas of each city with their different levels of socio-economic well-being. In doing so, the article contributes to the literature on the spatial divergence of voting behaviour by showing that the increasing divergence between larger/urban and smaller/rural centres, and that between central and peripheral (more disadvantaged) areas within large cities, cannot be linked to the same explanatory factors, as their timing is different.
2021年意大利地方选举共涉及1339个自治市。然而,政治领导人和媒体的注意力几乎完全集中在五个最大城市(罗马、米兰、那不勒斯、都灵和博洛尼亚)的比赛上,这被视为一次全国性的政治考验。媒体最强调的是,这一结果是中左翼出人意料的胜利,标志着两党之间的选举权力平衡发生了重大转变。本文记录了这场“胜利”的程度,探讨了这场胜利的原因,并考虑了它对国家政治的可能影响。该分析基于Cattaneo研究所创建的新数据集,该数据集允许对每个城市20多年来所有选举的投票情况进行空间分析。这使我们不仅可以研究一段时间以来的投票趋势,还可以研究每个城市不同社会经济福利水平的不同地区的选票分布情况。在此过程中,本文通过显示大城市/城市和较小/农村中心之间以及大城市内中心和外围(更弱势)地区之间日益增加的差异,为有关投票行为的空间差异的文献做出了贡献,这些差异不能与相同的解释因素联系起来,因为它们的时间不同。
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引用次数: 0
From the ‘yellow-red’ to the technocratic government in the pandemic era. The formation and activity of the Draghi government during its first nine months in charge 从“黄-红”到大流行时期的技术官僚政府。德拉吉政府上任头九个月的组成和活动
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/23248823.2022.2051121
Francesco Marangoni, A. Kreppel
ABSTRACT This article analyses the Draghi government in its first nine months in office, focusing on three main areas: (1) the formation and characteristics of the executive; (2) the positioning of the executive on the supranational political stage, in particular, its relationship with the European Union; (3) the legislative and policymaking activity of the Government. The main aim is to highlight the extent to which the technocratic nature of the executive played a role in each of these three areas of analysis. Elements of change and continuity with the governments of the recent past are also emphasized.
本文分析了德拉吉政府执政的前9个月,重点分析了三个主要方面:(1)管理层的组成和特征;(2)行政机构在超国家政治舞台上的定位,特别是其与欧盟的关系;(3)政府的立法和决策活动。其主要目的是强调高管的技术官僚性质在这三个分析领域中发挥作用的程度。还强调了与最近的过去的政府的变化和连续性的因素。
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引用次数: 7
The political leadership of Mario Draghi: an historical watershed or an inevitable bump in the road? 马里奥·德拉吉的政治领导力:历史分水岭还是道路上不可避免的颠簸?
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/23248823.2022.2058263
G. Capano, Giulia Sandri
ABSTRACT 2021 has been a year marking a turning point in the struggle against the pandemic and a time of economic and social transition in European Member States (MS). Italy has fared quite well in comparison to other MS, both with regard to the efficacy of its vaccination campaign and with regard to the drafting of its National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). Most of these successes can certainly be explained by the change of government, and by a revolution in the style of leadership, due to the arrival in office of the new prime minister, Mario Draghi. Yet, it is not entirely clear to what extent Draghi’s leadership has substantially changed Italian politics, especially in the management of periods of crisis. To what extent have unresolved problems in Italian politics been tackled, and to what extent do they persist? Is Draghi’s new leadership style a fleeting phenomenon, or has it triggered a substantial change in the functioning of the Italian polity? After establishing the distinguishing characteristics of Draghi’s leadership, the article describes the most significant of the positive and successful measures adopted by the Government, not forgetting those that were less positive and less successful. Then we discuss the impact of those political, institutional and policy legacies that could have hindered the scope and efficacy of the Government’s actions.
摘要2021年是欧洲成员国抗击疫情斗争的转折点和经济社会转型期。与其他多发性硬化症相比,意大利在疫苗接种运动的效果和国家康复和恢复计划(NRRP)的起草方面都表现良好。这些成功大多可以用政府的更迭和新总理马里奥·德拉吉上任后领导风格的革命来解释。然而,尚不完全清楚德拉吉的领导在多大程度上改变了意大利政治,尤其是在危机时期的管理方面。意大利政治中尚未解决的问题在多大程度上得到了解决,这些问题在多程度上持续存在?德拉吉的新领导风格是一种转瞬即逝的现象,还是引发了意大利政体运作的实质性变化?在确定德拉吉领导层的显著特征后,文章描述了政府采取的最重要的积极和成功的措施,不要忘记那些不那么积极和不那么成功的措施。然后,我们讨论了那些可能阻碍政府行动范围和效力的政治、体制和政策遗产的影响。
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引用次数: 9
The impact of the pandemic on the Italian party system. The Draghi government and the ‘new’ polarisation 疫情对意大利政党制度的影响。德拉吉政府和“新”两极分化
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/23248823.2022.2063099
L. Russo, M. Valbruzzi
ABSTRACT In 2021, the Covid-19 pandemic dominated the agenda of Italian politics as much as it had done in 2020. Political conflicts within the parties were relegated to the background or else were heavily influenced by the debate concerning management of the health emergency. The global scale of the pandemic and the measures taken at European level to mitigate the economic impact helped first to put an end to the Conte II government and then to bring to office a government of national unity led by Mario Draghi. All the parties represented in Parliament joined the government with the sole exception of Brothers of Italy, which decided to remain in opposition. In this context, the parties found themselves having to grapple with the need to cooperate as governing partners while also maintaining their recognizable profiles. Moreover, the effective absence of the coalitions with which they had previously been associated forced the parties to consider potentially new alliances and what they would mean for future political equilibria. This article will explore the state of the Italian party system, taking as our point of departure these circumstances, which are of considerable significance both nationally and internationally. First, we shall consider the dynamics of the party system as a whole and then, in more detail, we will explore the dynamics within the main parties and their respective coalitions.
摘要2021年,新冠肺炎疫情与2020年一样主导了意大利政治议程。政党内部的政治冲突被置于幕后,否则就会受到有关卫生紧急情况管理的辩论的严重影响。疫情的全球规模以及欧洲层面为减轻经济影响而采取的措施,首先有助于结束孔特二世政府,然后让马里奥·德拉吉领导的民族团结政府上台。议会中的所有党派都加入了政府,只有意大利兄弟会决定继续反对。在这种情况下,当事方发现自己不得不努力解决作为管理伙伴进行合作的必要性,同时还要保持其知名度。此外,与他们之前有联系的联盟的有效缺席迫使各方考虑潜在的新联盟,以及它们对未来政治平衡的意义。本文将以这些情况为出发点,探讨意大利政党制度的现状,这些情况在国内外都具有重要意义。首先,我们将考虑整个政党系统的动态,然后,更详细地,我们将探索主要政党及其各自联盟内部的动态。
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引用次数: 10
Politicization without institutionalization: relations between State and Regions in crisis governance 没有制度化的政治化:危机治理中的国家与地区关系
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/23248823.2022.2049513
S. Bolgherini, A. Lippi
ABSTRACT This article considers how intergovernmental relationships (Igr) between the State and the Regions in Italy changed during 2021, the second year of the pandemic outbreak. Three events altered significantly the previous cooperative arrangements and opened a new phase: the vaccination campaign, the new government led by Mario Draghi, and the launch of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). These events helped to shift the former cooperative governance (grounded in joint decision-making in the development of provisions and policies) towards a centralized governance (grounded in the leadership of the Prime Minister and an ‘adhocracy’) where the Regions had mostly an implementation rather than a more active decision-making role. This change is visible through two analytic dimensions: delegation/autonomy and cooperation/conflict. Empirical evidence was gathered on both dimensions. The article argues that the new centralized governance implied no formal change at the institutional level. Political variables determined it, analogously with what occurred in 2020 with cooperative governance. This means that relations between State and Regions in Italy change according to the political climate: they are more prone to politicization, than to institutionalization and permanent consolidation.
本文考虑了2021年,即大流行爆发的第二年,意大利国家和地区之间的政府间关系(Igr)如何变化。有三件事显著改变了以前的合作安排,并开启了一个新阶段:疫苗接种运动、马里奥·德拉吉领导的新政府以及启动了国家恢复和应变计划。这些事件有助于将以前的合作治理(以制定规定和政策的共同决策为基础)转变为集中治理(以总理的领导和“民主”为基础),在这种治理中,各区域主要是执行而不是更积极的决策作用。这种变化通过两个分析维度可见:授权/自治和合作/冲突。在这两个方面都收集了经验证据。本文认为,新的集中式治理并不意味着制度层面的正式变革。政治变量决定了这一点,类似于2020年合作治理的情况。这意味着意大利国家和地区之间的关系随着政治气候的变化而变化:它们更倾向于政治化,而不是制度化和永久巩固。
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引用次数: 1
The UE turn of a populist movement: at the roots of the Five-star Movement’s foreign-policy agenda 民粹主义运动的UE转向:五星运动外交政策议程的根源
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-03-30 DOI: 10.1080/23248823.2022.2059900
E. Diodato
ABSTRACT Until its success at the election of 2013, the Five-star Movement had not paid a great deal of attention to foreign policy. In 2017, in preparation for the election the following year, the Movement’s MPs began collating what they considered the most relevant policy proposals in order to draft a new electoral programme. Using the Movement’s web platform, Rousseau, the M5s asked registered members to choose the three most important issues of foreign policy from a list of ten. The aim of this article is to see how the Movement defined its foreign policy. This analysis helps us to understand the EU turn that has characterized the foreign-policy agenda of the Movement in recent years. Having embraced the possibility of Italy’s exit from the Eurozone in 2013, the Movement today appears to be in favour of strengthening the European institutions.
摘要“五星运动”在2013年大选成功之前,一直没有对外交政策给予太多关注。2017年,为了准备第二年的选举,该运动的议员们开始整理他们认为最相关的政策提案,以起草新的选举计划。通过该运动的网络平台卢梭,M5要求注册成员从十个问题中选择三个最重要的外交政策问题。这篇文章的目的是了解该运动如何定义其外交政策。这一分析有助于我们理解近年来欧盟外交政策议程的特点。在接受了意大利在2013年退出欧元区的可能性后,该运动今天似乎支持加强欧洲机构。
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引用次数: 2
The Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan: coordination and conditionality 意大利国家复苏和韧性计划:协调和条件限制
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-03-19 DOI: 10.1080/23248823.2022.2046099
Ekaterina Domorenok, Igor Guardiancich
ABSTRACT As one of the greatest beneficiaries of the NextGenerationEU (NGEU) recovery package, and given its low past absorption capacity of European Structural and Investment Funds and lacklustre implementation rates of Country-Specific Recommendations within the European Semester, in 2022, Italy is at the centre of the attention of its European partners. What are the chances of success of the Mediterranean country, which has disproportionately suffered from the fallouts of the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic? The article tries to assess the odds by looking at the Italian case from two perspectives. First, it evaluates Italy’s past performance in light of the several modifications to the conditionality that underpins the NGEU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility. Second, it elaborates on the implications of the governance structure introduced by Mario Draghi’s government to implement Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan. The evaluation yields mixed results. Considering that several – but not all – aspects of EU conditionality have been strengthened, this may force Italy, as much as other member states, more closely to follow supranational recommendations. Yet, the risk that path-dependent shortcomings in the reform and absorption capacity of the country may prevail is great. Moreover, the new, very centralized governance structure may generate implementation problems, as sub-national actors have been somehow side-lined, against European advice.
摘要作为下一代欧盟(NGEU)复苏计划的最大受益者之一,鉴于其过去对欧洲结构和投资基金的吸收能力较低,以及在2022年欧洲学期内国家具体建议的执行率较低,意大利成为其欧洲合作伙伴关注的中心。这个地中海国家在全球金融危机和新冠肺炎大流行中遭受了不成比例的损失,它成功的机会有多大?本文试图通过从两个角度来看待意大利的案件来评估可能性。首先,它根据对NGEU复苏和恢复机制的条件进行的几次修改来评估意大利过去的表现。其次,阐述了马里奥·德拉吉政府为实施意大利国家复苏和复原计划而引入的治理结构的影响。评估结果好坏参半。考虑到欧盟条件的几个方面——但不是全部——都得到了加强,这可能会迫使意大利和其他成员国一样,更加密切地遵循超国家的建议。然而,该国在改革和吸收能力方面存在依赖路径的缺陷的风险很大。此外,新的、非常集中的治理结构可能会产生实施问题,因为地方行为者在某种程度上站在了一边,反对欧洲的建议。
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引用次数: 9
Not for ideology but opportunity? The foundations of EU issue-voting in Eurosceptic Italy 不是为了意识形态而是为了机会?疑欧派意大利欧盟问题投票的基础
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-03-17 DOI: 10.1080/23248823.2022.2052485
Davide Angelucci, Luca Carrieri
ABSTRACT Party-system dynamics and party EU ideology have traditionally influenced trends in EU issue-voting, with opposition and Eurosceptic parties being more likely to benefit electorally from EU issues. While the electoral benefits of Eurosceptic and opposition parties on the EU have been separately analysed, less is known about the persistence of these preference configurations when Eurosceptic parties move into government. This raises a key question: Does the electoral potential of Eurosceptic parties change once they take over government? We address this question focusing on the Italian case, which, due to the experience of having had a fully-fledged Eurosceptic cabinet in the 2018–2019 period, allows us to test whether changes in governing/opposition status affect the electoral performance of Eurosceptic/Europhile parties on EU issues. While confirming that Italian voters are likely, electorally, to reward opposition and Eurosceptic parties on Europe more than governing and Europhile parties, the article shows that Eurosceptic parties, by assuming government office, tend to lose their electoral advantage on EU issues, not only as compared to Europhile parties, but also to Eurosceptic parties remaining in opposition. In contrast, governing/opposition status does not condition the electoral potential of Europhile parties on the EU dimension.
政党制度动态和政党的欧盟意识形态传统上影响着欧盟问题投票的趋势,反对党和欧洲怀疑主义政党更有可能从欧盟问题中获益。虽然欧洲怀疑论者和反对党对欧盟的选举利益已经分别进行了分析,但当欧洲怀疑论者进入政府时,这些偏好配置的持久性却鲜为人知。这就提出了一个关键问题:一旦疑欧派政党接管政府,他们的选举潜力会发生变化吗?我们以意大利为例来解决这个问题,由于意大利在2018-2019年期间拥有一个成熟的疑欧派内阁,因此我们可以测试执政/反对派地位的变化是否会影响疑欧派/亲欧派政党在欧盟问题上的选举表现。虽然这篇文章证实了意大利选民在选举中更有可能在欧洲问题上奖励反对党和疑欧派,而不是执政党和亲欧派,但这篇文章表明,与亲欧派政党相比,疑欧派政党往往会在欧盟问题上失去选举优势,这不仅是与亲欧派政党相比,也是与仍在野的疑欧派政党相比。相比之下,执政/反对派地位并不影响亲欧政党在欧盟层面的选举潜力。
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引用次数: 1
‘I hope you like jabbing, too’. The Covid vaccination campaign in Italy and the measures to promote compliance “我希望你也喜欢戳戳”。意大利新冠肺炎疫苗接种运动和促进遵守的措施
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-03-15 DOI: 10.1080/23248823.2022.2049806
S. Profeti
ABSTRACT From the start of 2021, the vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 was high on the agenda of governments everywhere and the Italian Government was no exception. In this article, we shall describe the progress of the anti-Covid vaccination campaign in Italy with a particular focus on the policy tools adopted by the Government to encourage citizens’ compliance and to combat reluctance. After considering the problem of engaging with the vaccination campaign using the analytic framework provided by studies of compliance, focus will be first on how the targets of the vaccination campaign came to be defined and the infrastructural facilities for administering the doses established, and then on the measures the Government took to overcome popular resistance to the vaccines and to maximise compliance, considering them in terms of their degree of ‘intrusiveness’. In the final section, we conclude by highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the campaign and by offering an assessment of the coherence and the timing of the Government’s measures.
从2021年开始,针对SARS-CoV-2的疫苗接种运动被提上了各国政府的重要议程,意大利政府也不例外。在本文中,我们将介绍意大利抗covid - 19疫苗接种运动的进展情况,特别侧重于政府为鼓励公民遵守并消除不情愿而采取的政策工具。在利用遵守情况研究提供的分析框架考虑参与疫苗接种运动的问题之后,重点将首先放在如何确定疫苗接种运动的目标和建立管理剂量的基础设施上,然后放在政府为克服公众对疫苗的抵制和最大限度地遵守疫苗接种而采取的措施上,考虑到这些措施的"侵入性"程度。在最后一节中,我们强调了该运动的长处和短处,并对政府各项措施的连贯性和时机进行了评估。
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引用次数: 5
The 2021 G20 and Italy: keeping our dreams alive? 2021二十国集团与意大利:让我们的梦想继续存在?
Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-03-15 DOI: 10.1080/23248823.2022.2047255
J. Davidson, C. Monteleone
ABSTRACT Italy’s presidency of the G20 defied the odds and resulted in costly commitments by the members on a range of issues: global health, climate change, a minimum global tax, and the crisis in Afghanistan. How can we explain this success? Italy’s prime minister, Mario Draghi, and his extensive prior experience and widespread respect was certainly a factor. The global context was also important, with the new Biden administration in the US leading a group of countries seeking multilateral solutions to pressing international problems.
摘要意大利担任二十国集团轮值主席国,不畏艰难,在一系列问题上做出了代价高昂的承诺:全球健康、气候变化、全球最低税收和阿富汗危机。我们如何解释这种成功?意大利总理马里奥·德拉吉及其丰富的经验和广泛的尊重无疑是一个因素。全球背景也很重要,美国拜登新政府领导着一群国家寻求多边解决紧迫的国际问题。
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引用次数: 1
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Contemporary Italian Politics
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