Groundwater for Sustainable Development最新文献

{"title":"Integrating deep learning and groundwater dynamics for drought vulnerability assessment under climate scenarios","authors":"Wei Sun ,&nbsp;Li-Chiu Chang ,&nbsp;Jun Jie Lin ,&nbsp;Fi-John Chang","doi":"10.1016/j.gsd.2026.101591","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsd.2026.101591","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drought increasingly threatens agricultural sustainability, particularly in groundwater-dependent regions where irrigation and aquifer recharge are closely linked. Taiwan's Zhuoshui River alluvial fan exemplifies this risk: long-term intensive pumping and rising climate extremes have amplified drought vulnerability. Yet most existing drought indices treat groundwater implicitly, and many AI studies focus on groundwater prediction without translating results into integrated vulnerability metrics. This study develops an AI-driven framework to assess future drought risk from climate, groundwater, and socio-environmental drivers. Groundwater level was predicted using a hybrid Convolutional Neural Network–Backpropagation model (CNN-BP) calibrated with 22 years of basin-wide gridded precipitation, temperature, and SPI data, together with groundwater levels from 18 monitoring wells. CNN-BP outperforms a BPNN benchmark, improving the correlation coefficient by 35.85% and reducing MAE by 19.51%, enabling robust projections for 2021–2100. These groundwater forecasts are then integrated with climatic (SPI), physiographic (soil, land use, elevation, slope, distance to river) and socio-economic (population) drivers to construct the Deep Learning-based Comprehensive Drought Vulnerability Indicator (DCDVI) under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Scenario results indicate consistent intensification of drought vulnerability relative to the historical baseline. SSP1-2.6 yields milder drought conditions and slower groundwater decline, while SSP5-8.5 leads to stronger drying and higher vulnerability. Under SSP5-8.5, highly vulnerable areas increase from 27.31% to 41.26% by 2081–2100. Overall, DCDVI provides a scalable, climate-responsive indicator that converts AI-based groundwater forecasts into actionable vulnerability maps. The framework provides a transferable decision-support tool for drought-prone, groundwater-reliant farming systems under climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37879,"journal":{"name":"Groundwater for Sustainable Development","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 101591"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146174241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Groundwater salinization and anthropogenic pollution imprints revealed by unsupervised learning in Ho Chi Minh city","authors":"Quang Khai Ha ,&nbsp;Ba Loc Tran ,&nbsp;Van Qui Lai","doi":"10.1016/j.gsd.2026.101589","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsd.2026.101589","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Groundwater resources in urban coastal regions are increasingly threatened by the interacting pressures of aquifer salinization and anthropogenic pollution, undermining freshwater security and long-term urban resilience. This study applies an integrated framework of unsupervised learning techniques including Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Self-Organizing Maps (SOM), K-means clustering, and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) to evaluate the hydrogeochemical characteristics of 441 groundwater samples collected across Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam's largest coastal megacity. Analytical results reveal that 72 % of groundwater samples exhibit a pH below 6.5, while concentrations of Fe, Cl, and NH₄ exceed national drinking water standards in 32 %, 9 %, and 8 % of samples, respectively. The study found that land use, geology and elevation are important factor controlling groundwater quality. Multivariate analysis indicates that groundwater chemistry is primarily influenced by salinization, weathering, nitrification-induced acidification, organic matter decomposition, and sulfide mineral oxidation. Clustering analysis identified five groundwater groups. Groups 1 (fresh to brackish water), 2 (acidic saline water), and 3 (fresh groundwater) are concentrated in lowland areas. Group 4 (elevated NO₃ and low pH) heavily affected by anthropogenic contamination sources, is in densely developed zones, whereas Group 5 (dilute, high-quality water) is found in high permeable and less developed highland areas. The results demonstrate that the SOM–HCA approach provides added value by producing more spatially coherent and hydrogeochemically realistic groundwater groupings. These findings underscore the value of unsupervised learning for groundwater assessment and call for local specific strategy for groundwater management: conservation for Groups 3 and 5, pollution control for Group 4, and salinity mitigation for Groups 1 and 2. This study provides a data-driven basis for sustainable groundwater resource management in vulnerable coastal cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37879,"journal":{"name":"Groundwater for Sustainable Development","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 101589"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146174237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term flood control in central Japan: A half-century groundwater monitoring and evaluating adaptation measures for sustainable use","authors":"Saki Nishizawa Katazakai ,&nbsp;Jing Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.gsd.2026.101585","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsd.2026.101585","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Groundwater depletion and quality degradation are accelerating worldwide under pressures from groundwater abstraction, land-use transitions, and climate-driven shifts in recharge. Monsoon Asia, responsible for nearly two-thirds of global freshwater withdrawals, is particularly vulnerable. At the eastern frontier of the Asian Monsoon, Japan has historically experienced groundwater crises, making it a valuable reference for anticipatory groundwater governance. This study identifies groundwater origins, quantifies recharge sources, and provides the first empirical estimate of how long-term flood-control strategies, including riverbed excavation and subsequent regulation, have influenced groundwater. Analysis combined half a century of literature with 20 years of shallow groundwater monitoring data, revealing a long-term shift in recharge pathways from river infiltration toward surface-derived inputs following riverbed excavation, with approximately 80 % of monitoring sites now exhibiting significant surface-derived recharge. A groundwater recharge project (GRP) utilizing fallow paddy fields is predicted to secure future groundwater supplies locally, and scaling seasonal GRPs nationally could potentially satisfy a fraction of Japan's freshwater demand. These findings highlight the critical role of sustained monitoring in detecting human-driven shifts in recharge dynamics and demonstrate that strategically managed agricultural land offers a flexible, transferable measure for groundwater security. Japan's experience provides actionable insight into emerging groundwater challenges across monsoon Asia and other groundwater-dependent regions, offering evidence-based guidance for integrating flood-control policies with long-term water resource management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37879,"journal":{"name":"Groundwater for Sustainable Development","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 101585"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146174242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping uncertainty in managed aquifer recharge potential across unconfined and confined aquifers of the Murray-Darling Basin","authors":"Dennis Gonzalez ,&nbsp;Joseph H.A. Guillaume ,&nbsp;Luk Peeters","doi":"10.1016/j.gsd.2026.101579","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsd.2026.101579","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global decline in groundwater levels, particularly in agricultural regions, underscores the imperative for sustainable management practices augmented through managed aquifer recharge (MAR). This study evaluated the potential for MAR in Australia's Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), identifying substantial areas conducive to recharge across regions experiencing long-term groundwater decline. Novel methods were developed to quantitatively assess potential recharge in unconfined and confined aquifers based on aquifer properties and account for uncertainty presenting a contrast to deterministic, weight-based spatial multi-criteria analyses. This investigation revealed that specific areas, including the Lower Namoi Alluvium and Goulburn-Murray Sedimentary Plain, exhibit higher recharge potential with 5–20 ML/ha feasible in unconfined aquifer systems at high confidence. Furthermore, this study found extensive areas at high confidence where the injection potential in confined aquifers ranged from 2.5–20 ML/d. The findings suggest that resource units characterized by high potential recharge areas and elevated resource stress values may benefit from MAR implementation, thereby mitigating stress and supporting more sustainable groundwater use. The economic viability of MAR is contingent upon various factors highlighting the need for tailored project design and site-specific assessments to ensure successful implementation. These results have significant implications for informing MAR implementation and future management strategies in the MDB.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37879,"journal":{"name":"Groundwater for Sustainable Development","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 101579"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146025459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Groundwater depletion and sustainability of water-intensive agriculture in the Cuatro Ciénegas region, Coahuila, Mexico","authors":"Adrián Pedrozo-Acuña ,&nbsp;Marco Rodrigo López-López ,&nbsp;José Agustín Breña-Naranjo ,&nbsp;Edgar Yuri Mendoza-Cázares","doi":"10.1016/j.gsd.2026.101583","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsd.2026.101583","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aims to investigate the relationship between groundwater depletion and intensive agricultural practices in the Cuatro Ciénegas region, a water-scarce area in Mexico. Data from an extensive field campaign along with remotely sensed data is utilised. Focus is given on regional groundwater flow and the hydrogeological interconnectivity of aquifers in and around Cuatro Ciénegas, alongside the temporal variations in water levels, agricultural frontiers, and projected water consumption for the main crops in the region. Isotope analysis of water samples reveals hydrological connectivity between the Cuatro Ciénegas-Ocampo and Cuatro Ciénegas aquifers, suggesting that agricultural activities above these aquifers threaten aquatic ecosystems. Temporal variations in water levels, obtained from in-situ measurements and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, indicate a decline in groundwater across all aquifers: Cuatro Ciénegas-Ocampo (−37.45 m from 2001 to 2023), Cuatro Ciénegas (−24.23 m from 2005 to 2023), and El Hundido (−20.17 m from 2005 to 2023). The agricultural frontier in the Cuatro Ciénegas-Ocampo and El Hundido aquifers increased by 63 % and 68 %, respectively, from 2003 to 2023. Agricultural activity in the Cuatro Ciénegas aquifer, which contains the nature reserve, decreased by 7.6 %. Groundwater depletion is associated with water-intensive agriculture in the area. Since 2011, the relationship between cropland expansion and groundwater use has exacerbated water stress. Groundwater withdrawals from the three aquifers for primary crop production have surpassed their recharge capacity, leading to groundwater depletion. An urgent need exists for sustainable groundwater extraction and aquifer restoration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37879,"journal":{"name":"Groundwater for Sustainable Development","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 101583"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146025437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nitrate pollution in the shallow groundwater of a rapidly urbanizing coastal area: Insight from spatial-seasonal distribution and source identification in Xiamen, China","authors":"Xiang Li ,&nbsp;Xiangke Kong ,&nbsp;Xiongguang Li ,&nbsp;Ximing Luo ,&nbsp;Shengwei Cao ,&nbsp;Xiujian Hu ,&nbsp;Yasong Li ,&nbsp;Yinglan Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.gsd.2026.101582","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsd.2026.101582","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nitrate (NO₃⁻) pollution in groundwater has become an increasingly serious problem in rapidly urbanized coastal areas. However, the complex hydrogeology and intensive human activities complicate the identification of NO₃⁻ sources and pollution characteristics, constraining the groundwater resources protection. This study investigated the spatial-seasonal distribution and origin of NO₃⁻ in 39 shallow groundwater wells across diverse land-use types during both wet and dry seasons in Xiamen, a typical coastal city in China. Results showed 48.7 % of groundwater samples exceeded the WHO guideline of 11.3 mg/L NO₃⁻-N. High NO₃⁻ concentration greatly affected the hydrochemical types, with 32 % of samples classified as NO₃⁻-N (meq % ≥ 25) dominant groundwater. Significant spatiotemporal variations in NO₃⁻ concentrations were observed across various land-use types. Notably, all samples exceeding the 11.3 mg/L NO₃⁻-N threshold clustered within a 10 km coastal zone of high population density. Spearman's rank correlation analysis revealed positive correlations (p &lt; 0.05) among NO₃⁻, Cl⁻, and SO₄²⁻, suggesting a clear anthropogenic impact on groundwater quality. Nitrate and sulfate stable isotope analysis indicated sewage and manure (MS) as the primary NO₃⁻ sources. The Bayesian mixing model further quantified the MS contributions (69.7 % ± 11.7 % in wet season, 90.9 % ± 11.5 % in dry season), followed by soil nitrogen and chemical fertilizers. Nitrification was the predominant microbial process responsible for NO₃⁻ accumulation in groundwater. This study demonstrates that integrating land-use patterns with hydrochemical and isotopic data provides an effective strategy for identifying the origins of NO₃⁻ pollution in urbanized coastal aquifers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37879,"journal":{"name":"Groundwater for Sustainable Development","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 101582"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146079506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Groundwater transit time distributions in the Pampean loess of Argentina: Insights from a multi-tracer approach (85Kr, CFCs, SF6, 3H/3He and 39Ar)","authors":"Alejandro Basaldúa ,&nbsp;Daniel Martínez ,&nbsp;Douglas Kip Solomon ,&nbsp;Takuya Matsumoto ,&nbsp;Zheng-Tian Lu ,&nbsp;Mauricio Quiroz-Londoño ,&nbsp;Emiliano Alcaraz ,&nbsp;Guo-Min Yang ,&nbsp;Wei Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.gsd.2026.101593","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsd.2026.101593","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Groundwater transit times in the unconfined to semi-confined Pampeano aquifer were assessed using eight environmental tracers (⁸⁵Kr, ³⁹Ar, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, SF₆, ³H and tritiogenic ³He) measured in 17 piezometers at different depths in southeastern Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. Age distributions were derived by inverse modeling with lumped parameter models (LPMs) and the tracers’ historical input functions. Results indicate slow and complex groundwater flow, with a wide range of ages and older water than expected for a simple unconfined aquifer conceptual model. Between 0 and 10 m below the water table, 35% of groundwater lacks young groundwater tracers (ages &gt; ∼60 years); between 10 and 20 m, over 60%; and below 30 m, more than 99%. A single ³⁹Ar measurement at 22–48 m depth indicates a mean age of 170 years, though this is likely an underestimate. Inverse modeling of ³H, ³He and ³H/³H₀ ratios suggests unsaturated zone transit times ranging from 3 to 37 years, exceeding estimates based on simple advective calculations and pointing to retarding layers and preferential winter recharge. These findings highlight the role of dispersion, sedimentological heterogeneity and low-permeability horizons in controlling groundwater age and recharge, with implications for contaminant vulnerability and resource sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37879,"journal":{"name":"Groundwater for Sustainable Development","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 101593"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146173798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global distribution, synergistic interactions, and advances in in-situ remediation of prevalent heavy metal(loid)s in groundwater systems","authors":"Diksha Dangwal ,&nbsp;Rahul Silori ,&nbsp;Balendu Shekher Giri","doi":"10.1016/j.gsd.2025.101559","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsd.2025.101559","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Groundwater contamination by heavy metals (HMs) is a critical environmental and public health challenge, threatening a critical source of drinking water. This review synthesizes research from the past 1.5 decades on the global occurrence, spread, mobility, interaction mechanisms and in-situ remediation of four prevalent HMs: Arsenic (As), Lead (Pb), Cadmium (Cd), and Chromium (Cr), highlighting their widespread distribution and underlying causes of contamination across groundwater systems. HMs bio-mimic vital elements and disrupt biological functions. HMs may form reactive oxygen species (ROS) and destabilize DNA, RNA and protein. Findings reveal contamination is pervasive; particularly affecting South Asian and developed nations such as Italy, Canada, Spain, Australia and USA. The maximum concentration of As, which has geogenic causes as origin, was recorded at Nigeria (3.06 mg/L), followed by USA (3 mg/L). Pb contamination by anthropogenic intervention is humungous in Kenya, attaining 121.40 mg/L. The chief sources of Cr in Tamil Nadu, India, are the mining and tannery industries, with concentration peaking to 40.52 mg/L. Cd contamination, caused by anthropogenic activities, reached 8 mg/L (Kenya), establishing Kenya as the hotspot of contamination. Microplastics increase metal bioaccumulation, PPCPs modify metal toxicity, HMs cause antimicrobial gene transfer, which causes greater mobility and persistence of HMs. Emerging PRB setups and novel media like sulfidated nZVI, goethite promises solutions of 90 % HM removal, electrocoagulation brought 80 % As removal in most field trials. By consolidating recent findings, this review equips researchers and policymakers with a comprehensive understanding of groundwater contamination scenario, associated implications and protection strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37879,"journal":{"name":"Groundwater for Sustainable Development","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 101559"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145791118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A comparative study of key factors influencing groundwater in a temperate and a semi-arid regions","authors":"Mahdi Miri ,&nbsp;Mehdi Zarei ,&nbsp;Diana M. Allen","doi":"10.1016/j.gsd.2025.101562","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsd.2025.101562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Groundwater depletion is a critical issue with significant impacts on water availability in diverse climatic settings. This study uses a range of statistical methods and remote-sensing techniques to investigate the factors, specifically, climatic, hydrological, and human-driven changes, that influence groundwater levels (GWLs) in aquifers in a temperate region (three aquifers in southwestern Canada) and a semi-arid region (four aquifers in southern Iran). Change point and trend analyses reveal significant declines in GWL (groundwater depletion) in one aquifer in the temperate region and in all aquifers in the semi-arid region, despite climate variables such as precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration showing minimal changes over the study period. In contrast, human-induced factors, including agricultural expansion, deforestation, and increases in the number of pumping wells, have occurred in the aquifers of both regions. The comparative design highlights contrasting resilience: Canadian aquifers exhibit partial recovery under management interventions, whereas Iranian aquifers demonstrate persistent over-extraction with limited recharge. These findings emphasize that human pressure, rather than climate, is the primary driver of depletion and that adaptive, region-specific groundwater governance is critical for sustainable management under future climate and land-use change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37879,"journal":{"name":"Groundwater for Sustainable Development","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 101562"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145791125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Groundwater vulnerability assessment of the Djibouti aquifer system (East Africa Rift System): A comparative study of DRASTIC, Hybrid-DRASTICs, and DRASTIC-based multi-objective evolutionary algorithm","authors":"Mohamed Osman Awaleh ,&nbsp;Golab Moussa Omar ,&nbsp;Abdi-Basid Ibrahim Adan ,&nbsp;Mohammad Najafzadeh ,&nbsp;Christelle Marlin ,&nbsp;Magued Al-Aghbary ,&nbsp;Mohamed Abdillahi Robleh ,&nbsp;Awaleh Djama Iltireh ,&nbsp;Jafar Al-Jawad ,&nbsp;Moussa Mohamed Waberi ,&nbsp;Rachid Robleh Ragueh ,&nbsp;Bahdon Elmi Ragueh ,&nbsp;Omar Assowe Dabar ,&nbsp;Moussa Mahdi Ahmed ,&nbsp;Mahamoud Ali Chirdon ,&nbsp;Abdillahi Elmi Adaneh ,&nbsp;Nasri Hassan Ibrahim ,&nbsp;Nima Moussa Egueh ,&nbsp;Ismail Abdillahi Guireh ,&nbsp;Omar Ibrahim Elmi","doi":"10.1016/j.gsd.2025.101564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gsd.2025.101564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The comprehensive mapping of groundwater contamination zones is vital for sustainable water resource management, especially in underdeveloped countries facing urban and industrial pressures. This study investigates, for the first time, the groundwater vulnerability of the Djibouti aquifer system located in the north of the East Africa Rift System (EARS). This area, which is home to 72.8 % of the country's inhabitants, has been impacted by rapid urbanization including industrial activities and the discharge of untreated wastewater. This study compares multiple groundwater vulnerability modeling frameworks, including DRASTIC (Depth to groundwater, net Recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of the vadose zone, and hydraulic Conductivity), DRASTIC–LULC (Land Use Land Cover), DRASTIC–AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), AHP–DRASTIC–LULC, DRASTIC–NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II), and NSGA-II–DRASTIC–LULC. Spatial autocorrelation analysis (Moran's I &gt; 0.95) has been used to improve the reliability and interpretability of the vulnerability maps. Groundwater vulnerability maps indicate that high and very high vulnerability zones (13.59–47.47 % and 1.02–21.70 %, respectively) are primarily located in the eastern and northern sectors. Moderate to low vulnerability zones (30.81–56.45 %) are prevalent in the central part of the study area. Sensitivity analysis identified key parameters such as aquifer depth, vadose zone impact, and aquifer medium. The LULC factors significantly improved model sensitivity and enabled better identification of at risk zones. The NSGA-II–DRASTIC–LULC model outperformed other modified DRASTIC methods, achieving a correlation of 0.58, an AUC of 0.84, and an RMSE of 1.13. These findings may provide a critical scientific basis for Djibouti's policymakers to prioritize land-use zoning and implement targeted protection measures in the identified high-risk zones, thereby securing a sustainable water future for the region's growing population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37879,"journal":{"name":"Groundwater for Sustainable Development","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article 101564"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145791187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}