Groundwater resources are essential for agricultural production, especially in areas of intensive agricultural. Using western Jilin Province, China, as a case study, this paper systematically evaluates groundwater dynamics under the combined impacts of climate change and human exploitation. Although extensive research has explored the effects of climate change on groundwater systems, the integration of climate models with groundwater-exploitation scenarios remains understudied. Accordingly, we used GMS–MODFLOW to construct a three-dimensional groundwater flow model. Using observed groundwater-level data from 10 observation wells, we simulated the groundwater flow field for 2007–2016 and validated the model. Building on this setup, we conducted scenario-based simulations to project the spatiotemporal dynamics of groundwater levels for 2021–2080, using six Global Climate Models (GCMs) and the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), and imposing exploitation-rate adjustments of ±20 % relative to current levels. Results show that precipitation accounts for approximately 95 % of total recharge. Across all scenarios, groundwater discharge exceeds recharge, producing a long-term negative change in storage whose magnitude increases under higher-emissions forcing; the mean annual storage deficit rises from 1.20 × 108 m3/yr (SSP1-2.6) to 2.20 × 108 m3/yr (SSP5-8.5). The regional mean groundwater-level decline rate ranges from 1.68 to 3.00 cm/yr, yielding a cumulative drop of 0.98–1.80 m by 2080. However, a 20 % reduction in groundwater exploitation can partially mitigate this trend: relative to the +20 % exploitation scenario, the regional mean decline rate falls by about 50 %, hotspots of serve decline contract markedly, and exploitation-driven spatial heterogeneity is reduced. The analysis further indicates that higher-emissions scenarios exacerbate human impacts on groundwater, whereas lower-emissions scenarios help alleviate these effects. Our distinctive contribution is an integrated modeling framework that tightly couples climate-change projections with groundwater-abstraction scenarios, yielding actionable insights for groundwater management in agricultural regions, informing adaptive pumping strategies, and supporting long-term sustainable use.
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