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Key binding constraints, structural reform, and growth potential of Azerbaijan via economic diversification: A computable general equilibrium policy impact analysis 关键约束、结构改革和阿塞拜疆经济多样化的增长潜力:一个可计算的一般均衡政策影响分析
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-05-10 DOI: 10.1177/18793665221096688
Gouranga G. Das, Edimon Ginting, Aimee Hampel, Mark Horridge
Being highly dependent on the oil sector, Azerbaijan suffered from economic downturn due to sharp fall in oil prices in 2015. However, such dependence creates development challenges for her. Simulated impact of prioritized economic reform policies—using a computable general equilibrium model (AZEORANI)—shows that, under the business-as-usual case with oil prices at 2011 level, it is projected to grow by 2.0% a year to 2030. However, consistent policy reforms enable enhanced growth by another 1.1 percentage points annually due to productivity boost and increased exports from non-oil sectors, viz., tourism and agriculture. In particular, following strategic roadmap, we consider baseline and policy shocks—10% improvement in productive efficiency, investment boost by 5% in non-mineral sector, and enhanced agricultural efficiency by 5%, and boost in tourism and transport by 10% via logistics-infrastructure, and technical progress in manufacturing over long run by 10–20% per annum. All these show that economic reforms have potentials to induce positive impact to overcome the binding constraints inhibiting growth and hence could promote economic development of Azerbaijan.
由于高度依赖石油部门,阿塞拜疆在2015年因油价大幅下跌而遭受经济衰退。然而,这种依赖给她的发展带来了挑战。利用可计算的一般均衡模型(AZEORANI)模拟了优先经济改革政策的影响,结果表明,在2011年油价水平的正常情况下,预计到2030年,经济改革政策的影响将以每年2.0%的速度增长。然而,持续不断的政策改革使生产率提高和非石油部门(即旅游业和农业)出口增加,每年又能使增长率提高1.1个百分点。特别是,根据战略路线图,我们考虑了基线和政策冲击——生产效率提高10%,非矿产部门投资增长5%,农业效率提高5%,通过物流基础设施促进旅游和运输增长10%,制造业长期技术进步每年10-20%。所有这些都表明,经济改革有可能产生积极影响,克服抑制增长的约束性制约因素,从而促进阿塞拜疆的经济发展。
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引用次数: 2
A spatial-based explanation for institutional trust in Georgia: Evidence from the maternal healthcare system 格鲁吉亚机构信任的空间解释:来自孕产妇保健系统的证据
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/18793665221079344
Medea Badashvili, Anastasiya Byelousova, Parth Gupta, Amy H. Liu, Elise Pizzi, Michael Sanchez, L. Shengelia, Mariana Unapkoshvili, Lyndsey Wang, Katherina Wierschke
When an institution is not easily accessible—for example, it is geographically far—it can be hard for institutional trust to develop. The institution is not only unavailable, but it can also be seen as inappropriate, non-affordable, unapproachable, and unacceptable. In this paper, we examine whether reducing distance to medical facilities and professionals can improve trust in the maternal healthcare system. We do so by focusing on developments in Georgia. Since 2013, the government has aggressively closed the distance to service access not by building more facilities or hiring more staff per se, but by upgrading and funding existing facilities and professionals in a national network to better coordinate service provisions at the local levels. Employing an original survey, we match GPS coordinates to measure distance and use regression analysis to demonstrate how ensuring every woman has access to maternal healthcare at the right place at the right time has improved institutional trust in the system. The implications highlight results that are generalizable beyond both the country and maternal healthcare.
当一个机构不容易接近时——例如,它在地理上遥远——就很难建立机构信任。这种机构不仅不可用,而且也可能被视为不合适的、负担不起的、不可接近的和不可接受的。在本文中,我们研究是否减少距离医疗设施和专业人员可以提高对孕产妇保健系统的信任。为此,我们将重点放在格鲁吉亚的事态发展上。自2013年以来,政府一直在积极缩小获得服务的距离,不是通过建造更多的设施或雇佣更多的员工,而是通过升级和资助国家网络中的现有设施和专业人员,以更好地协调地方层面的服务提供。采用原始调查,我们匹配GPS坐标来测量距离,并使用回归分析来证明如何确保每个妇女在正确的地点和正确的时间获得孕产妇保健,从而提高了对该系统的机构信任。其影响突出了可推广到国家和孕产妇保健之外的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Hardly visible, highly admired? Youth perceptions of the EU in Kazakhstan 几乎不显眼,却备受推崇?哈萨克斯坦青年对欧盟的看法
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2021-12-24 DOI: 10.1177/18793665211058187
Zhanibek Arynov
Youth have always been one of the central target audiences of the European Union’s (EU) policies towards Central Asia, which was once again emphasised in the recent EU Strategy for the region. This paper scrutinises how youth representatives in Kazakhstan, Brussels’ closest partner in the region, perceive the EU and its policies. By doing so, the paper shifts the focus from the EU-centric assessment of its external activities, which has long dominated the academic literature, and provides a ‘voice’ to the targets of the EU’s various initiatives. Examining data obtained through the method of pictorial test and focus group discussions with students of leading Kazakhstani universities, the paper argues that the issue Brussels faces among youth is not an image problem, rather it is a visibility issue. Although Kazakhstani youth are aware of the EU’s main ‘attributes’ at the basic level, they have little knowledge that goes beyond stereotypical, yet positive, images of it. This stereotyped admiration towards the EU, however, is not necessarily an outcome of Brussels’ successful policies, rather it is partly inherited from the historically idealised image of Europe. The paper suggests that increasing its visibility and better communicating its policies and messages need to be a priority for the EU in Central Asia.
青年一直是欧盟中亚政策的核心目标受众之一,这一点在最近的欧盟中亚战略中再次得到强调。本文考察了布鲁塞尔在该地区最亲密的伙伴哈萨克斯坦的青年代表如何看待欧盟及其政策。通过这样做,本文将重点从长期以来主导学术文献的以欧盟为中心的对外活动评估转移到欧盟,并为欧盟各种倡议的目标提供了“声音”。本文检视透过图示测试及与哈萨克斯坦顶尖大学学生的焦点小组讨论所获得的资料,认为布鲁塞尔在青年中面临的问题不是形象问题,而是能见度问题。虽然哈萨克斯坦年轻人在基本层面上了解欧盟的主要“属性”,但除了刻板的正面形象之外,他们所知甚少。然而,这种对欧盟的刻板崇拜并不一定是布鲁塞尔成功政策的结果,而是部分继承自历史上理想化的欧洲形象。这篇论文提出,提高欧盟在中亚的知名度和更好地传播其政策和信息需要成为欧盟在中亚的一个优先事项。
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引用次数: 2
Nationalism and Siberian archeology of the 19th century 民族主义与19世纪西伯利亚考古学
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2021-12-23 DOI: 10.1177/18793665211066318
Nikolay Ternov, D. Mikhailov
The article provides a comparative characteristic of the nationally motivated ethnocultural concepts of the 19th century, based on the interpretation of Siberian peoples` history. Finnish nationalism was looking for the ancestral home of the Finns in Altai and tried to connect them with the Turkic-Mongol states of antiquity and the Middle Ages. Under the influence of the cultural and historical theories of regional experts, the Siberian national discourse itself began to form, which was especially clearly manifested in the example of the genesis of Altai nationalism. Russian great-power nationalism sought to make Slavic history more ancient and connected it with the prestigious Scythian culture. If we rely on the well-known periodization of the development of the national movement of M. Khrokh, then in the theory of the Finns` Altai origin, we can distinguish features characteristic of phase “B,” when the cultural capital of nationalism gradually turns into political. In turn, the historical research of the regional specialists illustrates the earliest stage in the emergence of the national movement, the period of nationalism not only without a nation but also without national intellectuals. The oblasts are forming the very national environment, which does not yet have the means for its own expression, but it obviously contains separatist potential. At the same time, both the Finnish and Siberian patriots, with their scientific research, solved the same ideological task—to include the objects of their research in the world cultural and historical context, to achieve recognition of their right to a place among European nations. However, Florinsky’s theory, performing the function of the official propaganda, is an example of the manifestation of state unifying nationalism, with imperial connotations characteristics of Russia.
本文在对西伯利亚民族历史的阐释的基础上,对19世纪的民族文化概念进行了比较分析。芬兰民族主义正在寻找芬兰人在阿尔泰的祖先家园,并试图将他们与古代和中世纪的突厥-蒙古国家联系起来。在地域专家的文化历史理论的影响下,西伯利亚民族话语本身开始形成,这在阿尔泰民族主义起源的例子中表现得尤为明显。俄罗斯强大的民族主义试图使斯拉夫历史更古老,并将其与著名的斯基泰文化联系起来。如果我们依靠赫洛赫著名的民族运动发展分期理论,那么在芬兰人的阿尔泰起源理论中,我们可以区分出民族主义的文化资本逐渐转向政治的“B”阶段特征。反过来,地域专家的历史研究说明了民族运动出现的最早阶段,即民族主义时期,不仅没有民族,而且没有民族知识分子。这些州正在形成非常民族的环境,这种环境还没有自己表达的手段,但它显然包含分离主义的潜力。与此同时,芬兰和西伯利亚的爱国者通过他们的科学研究,解决了同样的意识形态任务——将他们的研究对象纳入世界文化和历史背景,使他们在欧洲国家中获得一席之地的权利得到承认。而佛罗林斯基的理论发挥了官方宣传的功能,是国家统一民族主义的表现范例,具有俄罗斯的帝国内涵特征。
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引用次数: 0
Energy, climate change and security: The Russian strategic conundrum 能源、气候变化和安全:俄罗斯的战略难题
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2021-12-23 DOI: 10.1177/18793665211054518
Jakub Godzimirski
Global and regional energy markets are increasingly influenced by policies aimed at climate change mitigation, with possible grave implications for major producers and exporters of fossil fuels – including Russia, which is planning further increases. This article examines the evolution of Russian official thinking on the role of climate change as a strategic factor in policymaking as expressed in key documents on security and in strategic statements made by Presidents Putin and Medvedev (2000–2020). The set of strategic statements examined in this article show surprisingly little attention to this important matter.
全球和区域能源市场日益受到旨在减缓气候变化的政策的影响,可能对化石燃料的主要生产国和出口国产生严重影响,其中包括正在计划进一步增加产量的俄罗斯。本文考察了2000年至2020年普京总统和梅德韦杰夫总统发表的关于安全的关键文件和战略声明中所表达的气候变化作为政策制定中的战略因素的作用的俄罗斯官方思想的演变。本文所研究的一系列战略声明令人惊讶地表明,对这一重要问题的关注很少。
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引用次数: 1
Decentralization, legitimacy, and democracy in post-Soviet Central Asia 后苏联中亚的权力下放、合法性与民主
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2021-12-23 DOI: 10.1177/18793665211068525
D. Siegel
During the 1990s, a conventional wisdom emerged, based on literature going back decades, that political decentralization might be among the most effective forces for democratization. If ordinary people could participate in autonomous local governments, democracy would be built from the ground up, ultimately shaping the entire political system. Once decentralization reforms were implemented across the world, however, the results were disappointing. Authoritarianism not only thrived at the local level, it could also undermine democratization at the national level. Thus, local-national transference still held, but sometimes as a poison. In this context, the case of post-Soviet Kyrgyzstan is an anomaly. Here, the relative success of political decentralization—rather than its failure—nevertheless failed to spur democratization at the national level. I argue that this is because decentralization allowed national authorities to appease international donors while they consolidated their own power. Moreover, while decentralization empowered local communities, it did so in ways that personalized local authority and pitted local and national authorities against one another, resulting in intense localism and antagonistic center-local relations that undermined any democratic transference. The case study findings are based on ten months of field research, which includes interviews with local and national officials, ordinary villagers, and representatives of NGOs and international organizations.
在20世纪90年代,一种基于几十年前的文献的传统智慧出现了,即政治权力下放可能是民主化最有效的力量之一。如果普通民众能够参与自治的地方政府,民主将从头开始建立,最终塑造整个政治体系。然而,一旦权力下放改革在世界范围内实施,结果却令人失望。威权主义不仅在地方一级盛行,它还可能破坏国家一级的民主化。因此,地方与国家之间的转移仍然存在,但有时是一种毒药。在这种背景下,后苏联时期的吉尔吉斯斯坦是一个反常的例子。在这里,政治分权的相对成功——而不是失败——却未能刺激国家层面的民主化。我认为,这是因为权力下放允许国家当局在巩固自己权力的同时安抚国际捐助者。此外,虽然权力下放赋予了地方社区权力,但它的方式使地方当局个人化,使地方当局和国家当局相互对立,导致强烈的地方主义和敌对的中央-地方关系,破坏了任何民主转移。案例研究的结果基于十个月的实地调查,其中包括对地方和国家官员、普通村民以及非政府组织和国际组织代表的采访。
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引用次数: 1
The European Union–Azerbaijan high-level transport dialogue: A timely reaction to the structural changes? 欧盟-阿塞拜疆高级别运输对话:对结构变化的及时反应?
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.1177/18793665211054516
S. Abilov, Beyrak Hajiyev
The European Union (EU) and Azerbaijan high-level transport dialogue is the continuation of the long period of cooperation between the EU and Azerbaijan in the area of transport since the early 1990s. The geopolitical and geo-economic maps of Eurasia, the South Caucasus, and the regions around have significantly changed since then thanks to rise of China, India, and other regional actors. These actors in their turn began to initiate competitive logistical and transportation projects to define terms and conditions of the making of Eurasian transport and trade routes. The ultimate goal is to have a share in controlling global flows passing through the strategic spots of Eurasian landmass. The EU’s recent transport dialogue with Azerbaijan reflects and is reaction to those changes that happened in the wider Europe, in Eurasia, and in the globe. This paper tries to place the EU and Azerbaijan transport dialogue to a broader picture to find out what changes conditioned and necessitated the upgraded dialogue between the EU and Azerbaijan. To do so, it traces the EU and Azerbaijan’s transport policies and cooperation since the early 1990s.
欧洲联盟(欧盟)和阿塞拜疆高级别运输对话是欧盟和阿塞拜疆自1990年代初以来在运输领域长期合作的延续。由于中国、印度和其他地区参与者的崛起,欧亚大陆、南高加索及其周边地区的地缘政治和地缘经济地图自那时以来发生了重大变化。反过来,这些参与者开始启动竞争性的物流和运输项目,以确定欧亚运输和贸易路线的条款和条件。最终目标是在控制通过欧亚大陆战略要地的全球流量方面占有份额。欧盟最近与阿塞拜疆的运输对话反映了更广泛的欧洲、欧亚大陆和全球发生的这些变化,也是对这些变化的反应。本文试图将欧盟与阿塞拜疆运输对话置于更广阔的图景中,以找出欧盟与阿塞拜疆之间升级对话的条件和必要的变化。为了做到这一点,它追溯了欧盟和阿塞拜疆自20世纪90年代初以来的运输政策和合作。
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引用次数: 0
Book Review: The Central Asian Economies in the Twenty-First Century: Paving a New Silk Road 书评:《21世纪的中亚经济:开辟新丝绸之路》
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.1177/18793665211066317
Valijon Turakulov
Central Asian “-stan” countries, namely, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, declared their independence in the same year, 1991. The countries chose diverse ways of transition from centrally planned to the market-based economic system. Today, it is time to assess the result of those diverse transition ways. In this regard, the book of Professor Richard Pomfret narrates the story of the Central Asian (CA) economy based on accurate key dates, notable events, statistical numbers, and facts. Analysis toward each country shows a neutral stance as the author himself is from neither CA country. The book has three main parts. “The Background” talks about challenges and opportunities for creating a marketbased economy in CA. The second part, “The National Economies,” visits each economy of five CA states one-byone and uniquely analyzes them. A reader finds regional problems and opportunities, other countries interest in CA and forgoing new Silk Road projects in the last “The External Context,” part.
中亚“斯坦”国家,即哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦,于1991年同一年宣布独立。这些国家选择了从中央计划经济体制向市场经济体制过渡的多种方式。今天,是时候评估这些不同过渡方式的结果了。在这方面,理查德·庞弗雷特(Richard Pomfret)教授的书根据准确的关键日期、重大事件、统计数字和事实,讲述了中亚(CA)经济的故事。对每个国家的分析显示出中立的立场,因为作者本人既不是来自CA国家。这本书有三个主要部分。“背景”部分讨论了在加州建立市场经济的挑战和机遇。第二部分“国民经济”,逐一访问了加州五个州的经济,并对它们进行了独特的分析。在最后的“外部背景”部分,读者会发现地区问题和机遇、其他国家对中亚合作的兴趣以及放弃新丝绸之路项目。
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引用次数: 0
Monastic Pathways on the Fourth and Fifth Hills of Constantinople (Eleventh–Fifteenth Centuries) 君士坦丁堡第四和第五山上的修道院小路(11 - 15世纪)
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2021-12-07 DOI: 10.1163/24685623-12340112
Nicholas Melvani
The area between the so-called Fourth and Fifth hills of Constantinople is known for its monasteries, especially those from the Komnenian and Palaiologan periods. In general, this part of the city was less urbanised and was therefore suitable for monastic life, but it was intimately connected with various aspects of social, economic, and scholarly activity. The present article examines monuments and itineraries in this area within the urban context and the ceremonial topography of medieval Constantinople in order to highlight the place of these monastic neighborhoods in the Byzantine capital’s public life.
君士坦丁堡所谓的第四山和第五山之间的地区以其修道院而闻名,特别是那些来自Komnenian和Palaiologan时期的修道院。总的来说,城市的这一部分城市化程度较低,因此适合修道院生活,但它与社会、经济和学术活动的各个方面密切相关。本文在城市背景和中世纪君士坦丁堡的仪式地形中考察了该地区的纪念碑和行程,以突出这些修道院社区在拜占庭首都公共生活中的地位。
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引用次数: 0
Seeing the Unseen: Plaster Reliefs in Middle Byzantine Constantinople 看不见的:中拜占庭君士坦丁堡的石膏浮雕
Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2021-12-07 DOI: 10.1163/24685623-12340111
Flavia Vanni
This paper discusses the scarce, but crucial evidence for plaster reliefs in Constantinople between the ninth and the thirteenth centuries. While many plaster reliefs survived in the Balkan peninsula, there is room to confirm that they were also used in the capital. Plaster reliefs were a quick substitution for marble, but could also answer aesthetic needs and architectural conventions that continued from Late Antiquity in to Middle and Late Byzantine architecture, even with some changes.
本文讨论了9世纪到13世纪之间君士坦丁堡的石膏浮雕的稀少但重要的证据。虽然许多石膏浮雕在巴尔干半岛幸存下来,但仍有余地确认它们也曾在首都使用过。石膏浮雕是大理石的快速替代品,但也可以满足美学需求和建筑惯例,从古代晚期一直延续到拜占庭中期和晚期的建筑,即使有一些变化。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Eurasian Studies
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