Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.20472/ES.2019.8.1.007
Ursula-Christiane Ouaïmon, Yabin Zhang
This paper examines the relationship between women’s participation in the labor market and economic development in ECCAS and ECOWAS over the period 2006-2015 by using dynamic panel data model. The analysis is run from two different perspectives – on one hand, the relationship is investigated for a sample of 24 countries; and on the other hand – the evidence is disaggregated and the relationship is re-examined with two regional blocs (ECCAS, ECOWAS). The OLS, fixed effects model, instrumental IV and the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator developed by Arellano and Bond (1991) are employed to evaluate and account for dynamic effects. The main results show that there is a U-shaped relationship between female labor force participation and the economic development for the encompassing 24 countries. The findings are important for ECCAS and ECOWAS countries policy makers to undertake effective policies that can boost female labor force participation and enhance economic growth in their countries.
{"title":"WOMEN’S PARTICIPATION IN THE LABOR MARKET AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: EVIDENCE FROM ECCAS AND ECOWAS COUNTRIES","authors":"Ursula-Christiane Ouaïmon, Yabin Zhang","doi":"10.20472/ES.2019.8.1.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20472/ES.2019.8.1.007","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the relationship between women’s participation in the labor market and economic development in ECCAS and ECOWAS over the period 2006-2015 by using dynamic panel data model. The analysis is run from two different perspectives – on one hand, the relationship is investigated for a sample of 24 countries; and on the other hand – the evidence is disaggregated and the relationship is re-examined with two regional blocs (ECCAS, ECOWAS). The OLS, fixed effects model, instrumental IV and the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator developed by Arellano and Bond (1991) are employed to evaluate and account for dynamic effects. The main results show that there is a U-shaped relationship between female labor force participation and the economic development for the encompassing 24 countries. The findings are important for ECCAS and ECOWAS countries policy makers to undertake effective policies that can boost female labor force participation and enhance economic growth in their countries.","PeriodicalId":42415,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economic Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67598976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.20472/ES.2019.8.1.005
A. Jadoon, Y. Guang
This main goal of this study is to check the exchange rate fluctuations and its impact on trade balance in Pakistan. The annual time series data from 1971 to 2016 is used to check the short run and long run relationship between Exchange rate fluctuations trade balance of Pakistan. We employed the autoregressive distributed lag approach and results reveal that Exchange rate has positive and significant relationship with balance of trade in long run and short run. Devaluation of Pakistani rupees against USD, would increase the exports and ultimately trade balance will enhance. The inflation and money supply has negative and significant relationship with balance of trade in long run in Pakistan. The excess of money supply will increase inflation which reduces the exports and consequently, balance of trade would decrease. This study has a policy implications for government as well as local and foreign investors. The government should also play an important role to make such strategies which can increase the balance of trade in Pakistan and can boost the economic growth of Pakistan indirectly.
{"title":"THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS ON TRADE BALANCE OF PAKISTAN","authors":"A. Jadoon, Y. Guang","doi":"10.20472/ES.2019.8.1.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20472/ES.2019.8.1.005","url":null,"abstract":"This main goal of this study is to check the exchange rate fluctuations and its impact on trade balance in Pakistan. The annual time series data from 1971 to 2016 is used to check the short run and long run relationship between Exchange rate fluctuations trade balance of Pakistan. We employed the autoregressive distributed lag approach and results reveal that Exchange rate has positive and significant relationship with balance of trade in long run and short run. Devaluation of Pakistani rupees against USD, would increase the exports and ultimately trade balance will enhance. The inflation and money supply has negative and significant relationship with balance of trade in long run in Pakistan. The excess of money supply will increase inflation which reduces the exports and consequently, balance of trade would decrease. This study has a policy implications for government as well as local and foreign investors. The government should also play an important role to make such strategies which can increase the balance of trade in Pakistan and can boost the economic growth of Pakistan indirectly.","PeriodicalId":42415,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economic Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67598917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.20472/es.2019.8.2.010
V. Varahrami, Arghavan Novin Vajari
This paper surveys relation between government budget, foreign direct investment (FDI) and public capital efficiency role in the infrastructure sector for attracting FDI. To achieve this goal, dynamic optimization methods are used for extracting the growth path of public consumption expenditure of government within a neoclassical growth model framework. The results suggest that FDI has a direct and positive effect on the optimal growth rate of public consumption expenditure. In fact, if the government invests more in the infrastructure sector and it is more efficient to attract FDI, the optimal growth rate of public consumption will be higher in long run respect to short run. The equation for the growth rate of public consumption is derived and estimated on the basis of data during the period 1971 - 2014 in Iran.
{"title":"FDI, GOVERNMENT BUDGET AND EFFICIENCY OF PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL","authors":"V. Varahrami, Arghavan Novin Vajari","doi":"10.20472/es.2019.8.2.010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20472/es.2019.8.2.010","url":null,"abstract":"This paper surveys relation between government budget, foreign direct investment (FDI) and public capital efficiency role in the infrastructure sector for attracting FDI. To achieve this goal, dynamic optimization methods are used for extracting the growth path of public consumption expenditure of government within a neoclassical growth model framework. The results suggest that FDI has a direct and positive effect on the optimal growth rate of public consumption expenditure. In fact, if the government invests more in the infrastructure sector and it is more efficient to attract FDI, the optimal growth rate of public consumption will be higher in long run respect to short run. The equation for the growth rate of public consumption is derived and estimated on the basis of data during the period 1971 - 2014 in Iran.","PeriodicalId":42415,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economic Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67599009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.20472/es.2019.8.2.011
Ilko Vrankic, Jasminka Šohinger, Mira Krpan
This paper examines a two-way relationship between convex analysis and microeconomic theory. Motivation for this paper are the observed similarities in the structure of the theory of consumer behavior and production theory. The fact that the behavior of variables is not determined by their nature but, rather, by their relationships is best illustrated and explained by using convex sets and convex analysis, which occupy central place in microeconomic theory. This paper is the result of efforts to make complex results of convex analysis and its application in microeconomic theory more transparent. Starting with the well-known economic phenomenon of profit maximization the authors derive in a novel way general results within the framework of convex analysis. From those results follow, directly and indirectly, the conclusions of the theory of consumer and producer behavior. The authors show that applying the Fundamental Theorems of Calculus opens up a new perspective in which the marginal cost curve can be interpreted as the marginal profit curve. This enables the derivation of Hotelling's lemma in a new way. Using the new interpretation of Hotelling's lemma, the authors reconstruct the cost function and confirm the Conjugate Duality Theorem of Legendre-Fenchel transformations. Relaxing the assumption of differentiability by describing the graph of the cost function as the envelope of its tangents, the authors rederive the properties of Legendre-Fenchel transformations and show that they hold in general. The path from the well-known economic facts to completely general conclusions of convex analysis is continued by applying the Conjugate Duality Theorem of Legendre-Fenchel transformations to the profit function. The essence of the dual characterization of technology by the profit function is illustrated by the graphical representation of linear homogeneity of the profit function. It results in the possibility to reconstruct the production function while using only the First Order Conditions to rederive Hotelling's lemma. It is this inductive-deductive approach used to examine the properties of Legendre-Fenchel trasformations and their application in the theory of consumer and producer behavior that establishes a two-way relationship between convex analysis and microeconomic theory.
{"title":"ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF TECHNOLOGY AND PROPERTIES OF LEGENDRE-FENCHEL TRANSFORMATIONS","authors":"Ilko Vrankic, Jasminka Šohinger, Mira Krpan","doi":"10.20472/es.2019.8.2.011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20472/es.2019.8.2.011","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines a two-way relationship between convex analysis and microeconomic theory. Motivation for this paper are the observed similarities in the structure of the theory of consumer behavior and production theory. The fact that the behavior of variables is not determined by their nature but, rather, by their relationships is best illustrated and explained by using convex sets and convex analysis, which occupy central place in microeconomic theory. This paper is the result of efforts to make complex results of convex analysis and its application in microeconomic theory more transparent. Starting with the well-known economic phenomenon of profit maximization the authors derive in a novel way general results within the framework of convex analysis. From those results follow, directly and indirectly, the conclusions of the theory of consumer and producer behavior. The authors show that applying the Fundamental Theorems of Calculus opens up a new perspective in which the marginal cost curve can be interpreted as the marginal profit curve. This enables the derivation of Hotelling's lemma in a new way. Using the new interpretation of Hotelling's lemma, the authors reconstruct the cost function and confirm the Conjugate Duality Theorem of Legendre-Fenchel transformations. Relaxing the assumption of differentiability by describing the graph of the cost function as the envelope of its tangents, the authors rederive the properties of Legendre-Fenchel transformations and show that they hold in general. The path from the well-known economic facts to completely general conclusions of convex analysis is continued by applying the Conjugate Duality Theorem of Legendre-Fenchel transformations to the profit function. The essence of the dual characterization of technology by the profit function is illustrated by the graphical representation of linear homogeneity of the profit function. It results in the possibility to reconstruct the production function while using only the First Order Conditions to rederive Hotelling's lemma. It is this inductive-deductive approach used to examine the properties of Legendre-Fenchel trasformations and their application in the theory of consumer and producer behavior that establishes a two-way relationship between convex analysis and microeconomic theory.","PeriodicalId":42415,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economic Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67599056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.20472/ES.2019.8.1.006
M. Just, Aleksandra Łuczak, A. Kozera
The purpose of this paper was to assess the conditional dependence structure in the precious metals futures market in the period spanning from the beginning of 2000 to mid 2018. These time frames correspond to large fluctuations of quoted contract prices during the financial crisis. The dynamic Kendall’s tau coefficients and the dynamic tail dependence coefficients were used to assess the strength and dynamics of the nexus between rates of return on quoted prices of precious metals futures contracts. The coefficients were determined using the copula-based multivariate GARCH models, whereas the daily changes in the conditional dependence structure (changes in market state) were identified with the fuzzy c-means clustering method. In the study period, the conditional dependence structure in the precious metals futures market changed over time, as confirmed by the three identified market states. Of the contracts considered, gold and silver futures contracts demonstrated the strongest interrelationship and a relatively high likelihood of extreme events being transferred between them.
{"title":"CONDITIONAL DEPENDENCE STRUCTURE IN THE PRECIOUS METALS FUTURES MARKET","authors":"M. Just, Aleksandra Łuczak, A. Kozera","doi":"10.20472/ES.2019.8.1.006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20472/ES.2019.8.1.006","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper was to assess the conditional dependence structure in the precious metals futures market in the period spanning from the beginning of 2000 to mid 2018. These time frames correspond to large fluctuations of quoted contract prices during the financial crisis. The dynamic Kendall’s tau coefficients and the dynamic tail dependence coefficients were used to assess the strength and dynamics of the nexus between rates of return on quoted prices of precious metals futures contracts. The coefficients were determined using the copula-based multivariate GARCH models, whereas the daily changes in the conditional dependence structure (changes in market state) were identified with the fuzzy c-means clustering method. In the study period, the conditional dependence structure in the precious metals futures market changed over time, as confirmed by the three identified market states. Of the contracts considered, gold and silver futures contracts demonstrated the strongest interrelationship and a relatively high likelihood of extreme events being transferred between them.","PeriodicalId":42415,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economic Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67598926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.20472/es.2019.8.1.008
O. Rakauskienė, Vaida Servetkienė, Lina Volodzkiene
The high level of income and wealth distribution in the world is recognized as a phenomenon that leads to negative economic and social consequences. The imperfection of redistribution levers in the economy has created conditions for the concentration of resources, material goods and wealth in small population groups. Today, the economic system is not focused on majority of the population, and therefore the high level of inequality and its consequences for economic growth, well-being and human development cannot be ignored. In this context, too high economic inequality in Lithuania is one of the most sensitive problems of the country; Lithuania is an anti-leader in the European Union according to economic inequality.Conventionally, economic inequality is measured using such methods as distribution of income and consumption of the population, however, to find out the real level of inequality, wealth diversity should be studied as well. The main purpose of this article is to identify and emphasise wealth diversity as an inseparable part of economic inequality in Lithuania and, as a result, the poor quality of life and obstacles in the way of economic progress as well as to compare wealth inequality with income inequality in Lithuania.The authors organised a representative poll of Lithuanian citizens and used a certain survey to collect information about the dwelling-places or other types of assets owned by the respondents as well as to evaluate wealth diversity in the country. The results show that the edge value of the assets owned by the representatives between I and X deciles differs by 16.9 times. However, comparing the average prices of dwelling-places in deciles I and X, the difference amounts to 7.2 times. Assessing all types of assets, including accommodation, land, durable goods, etc., it has been revealed that the distribution of wealth exceeds the limit of income and consumption distribution established by various statistical organisations and by the authors themselves. The decile ratio (in relation to deciles I and X) equals to 40.8, thus, it considerably exceeds the level of income and consumption inequality.
{"title":"ASSESSMENT OF WEALTH DIVERSITY (CASE OF LITHUANIA)","authors":"O. Rakauskienė, Vaida Servetkienė, Lina Volodzkiene","doi":"10.20472/es.2019.8.1.008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20472/es.2019.8.1.008","url":null,"abstract":"The high level of income and wealth distribution in the world is recognized as a phenomenon that leads to negative economic and social consequences. The imperfection of redistribution levers in the economy has created conditions for the concentration of resources, material goods and wealth in small population groups. Today, the economic system is not focused on majority of the population, and therefore the high level of inequality and its consequences for economic growth, well-being and human development cannot be ignored. In this context, too high economic inequality in Lithuania is one of the most sensitive problems of the country; Lithuania is an anti-leader in the European Union according to economic inequality.Conventionally, economic inequality is measured using such methods as distribution of income and consumption of the population, however, to find out the real level of inequality, wealth diversity should be studied as well. The main purpose of this article is to identify and emphasise wealth diversity as an inseparable part of economic inequality in Lithuania and, as a result, the poor quality of life and obstacles in the way of economic progress as well as to compare wealth inequality with income inequality in Lithuania.The authors organised a representative poll of Lithuanian citizens and used a certain survey to collect information about the dwelling-places or other types of assets owned by the respondents as well as to evaluate wealth diversity in the country. The results show that the edge value of the assets owned by the representatives between I and X deciles differs by 16.9 times. However, comparing the average prices of dwelling-places in deciles I and X, the difference amounts to 7.2 times. Assessing all types of assets, including accommodation, land, durable goods, etc., it has been revealed that the distribution of wealth exceeds the limit of income and consumption distribution established by various statistical organisations and by the authors themselves. The decile ratio (in relation to deciles I and X) equals to 40.8, thus, it considerably exceeds the level of income and consumption inequality.","PeriodicalId":42415,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economic Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67598988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.20472/es.2019.8.2.004
B. Kadeřábková, E. Jašová
: The aim of the paper is to analyse the development and the level of cost inflation pressures originating from the labour market in terms of the different levels of the Czech Republic. At first, we will mention several definitions of unit labour costs and the reasons for their examination and monitoring. Then we will select the concept of the nominal and real unit wage costs and data for the macro-level and mezzo-level in the Czech Republic. It is also evaluated the development of real unit wage costs indicator on individual levels of the Czech Republic and extent the wage inflation potential on them. Finally, we localize the first clues about the negative impact of wages on prices on the mezzo-level, which can be used for creating the prediction of the national economy in the near future.
{"title":"DEVELOPMENT OF REAL UNIT WAGE COSTS ON THE MACRO- AND MEZO-LEVEL OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC","authors":"B. Kadeřábková, E. Jašová","doi":"10.20472/es.2019.8.2.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20472/es.2019.8.2.004","url":null,"abstract":": The aim of the paper is to analyse the development and the level of cost inflation pressures originating from the labour market in terms of the different levels of the Czech Republic. At first, we will mention several definitions of unit labour costs and the reasons for their examination and monitoring. Then we will select the concept of the nominal and real unit wage costs and data for the macro-level and mezzo-level in the Czech Republic. It is also evaluated the development of real unit wage costs indicator on individual levels of the Czech Republic and extent the wage inflation potential on them. Finally, we localize the first clues about the negative impact of wages on prices on the mezzo-level, which can be used for creating the prediction of the national economy in the near future.","PeriodicalId":42415,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economic Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67599070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.20472/es.2019.8.1.001
R. Banelienė, B. Melnikas
The paper deals with a highly complicated problem related to the development of economic relations between the European Union and the so-called Eastern Partnership countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The essence of the problem is the extremely excessive level of the shadow economy in the Eastern Partnership countries: the shadow economy considerably affects the situation in the Eastern Partnership countries and it causes in addition a profound negative impact on the economic cooperation with the European Union. The assessment and monitoring of shifts in shadow economies in the Eastern Partnership countries is a crucial issue for the European Union, in particular to make responsible and reasoned policy decisions on the economic cooperation between the European Union and the Eastern Partnership countries. This fact leads to the needs to create and use adequate instruments for modelling and evaluating the shadow economy. The opportunities of using various tools for modelling and evaluating the shadow economy are discussed herein. The main focus of attention is directed to the new integrated approach to shadow economy modelling: this approach is distinguished by the fact that the shadow economy is analyzed and assessed in a holistic manner upon taking into account the different aspects of economic life and economic development processes. A new model applicable to the assessment of the shadow economy in the Eastern Partnership countries is described; this model is based on the idea of the so-called Tanzi model and was developed by covering the traditionally used independent variables such as taxes, wages and salaries, as well as the new modified indicators. The paper describes empirical research on modelling and estimating of the scope and dynamics of the shadow economy in the Eastern Partnership countries, as well as the principal results of the said research. It has been shown that the shadow economy in the Eastern Partnership countries is highly, extensively and even dangerously developed. The results of the research show an existence of a link between the size of the shadow economy and the control of corruption, but this link is very diverse in different countries. The methodological approach and research results presented in the paper can be used to create a decision support system for the development of the economic relations between the European Union and the Eastern Partnership countries.
{"title":"THE SHADOW ECONOMY IN THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES: MODELLING AND ESTIMATING IN THE CONTEXT OF THE NEEDS TO DEVELOP ECONOMIC COOPERATION BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES","authors":"R. Banelienė, B. Melnikas","doi":"10.20472/es.2019.8.1.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20472/es.2019.8.1.001","url":null,"abstract":"The paper deals with a highly complicated problem related to the development of economic relations between the European Union and the so-called Eastern Partnership countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The essence of the problem is the extremely excessive level of the shadow economy in the Eastern Partnership countries: the shadow economy considerably affects the situation in the Eastern Partnership countries and it causes in addition a profound negative impact on the economic cooperation with the European Union. The assessment and monitoring of shifts in shadow economies in the Eastern Partnership countries is a crucial issue for the European Union, in particular to make responsible and reasoned policy decisions on the economic cooperation between the European Union and the Eastern Partnership countries. This fact leads to the needs to create and use adequate instruments for modelling and evaluating the shadow economy. The opportunities of using various tools for modelling and evaluating the shadow economy are discussed herein. The main focus of attention is directed to the new integrated approach to shadow economy modelling: this approach is distinguished by the fact that the shadow economy is analyzed and assessed in a holistic manner upon taking into account the different aspects of economic life and economic development processes. A new model applicable to the assessment of the shadow economy in the Eastern Partnership countries is described; this model is based on the idea of the so-called Tanzi model and was developed by covering the traditionally used independent variables such as taxes, wages and salaries, as well as the new modified indicators. The paper describes empirical research on modelling and estimating of the scope and dynamics of the shadow economy in the Eastern Partnership countries, as well as the principal results of the said research. It has been shown that the shadow economy in the Eastern Partnership countries is highly, extensively and even dangerously developed. The results of the research show an existence of a link between the size of the shadow economy and the control of corruption, but this link is very diverse in different countries. The methodological approach and research results presented in the paper can be used to create a decision support system for the development of the economic relations between the European Union and the Eastern Partnership countries.","PeriodicalId":42415,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economic Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67598850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.20472/es.2019.8.2.005
Aamir Khan, Muhammad Arshad Khan, A. Salman
This study aims to find out the relationship of how exchange rate effect the balance of trade in Pakistan over the period 1982-2016 within the context of J-curve phenomenon. We employed an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration. To investigate the short run dynamics of the study, we have estimated an error correction model. The unit root results provide a mix of I(0) and I(1) variables. The results of diagnostic tests indicate no econometric problem in the estimated model. The CUSUM and CUSUM of squared test confirms the stability of the estimated model. We summarize the estimated results as follow: first, we found an evidence of cointegration among the variables. Second, the long run results shows significant effect of REER on trade balance in Pakistan. Third, we found an evidence of J-curve in case of Pakistan.
{"title":"IS EXCHANGE RATE EFFECT TRADE BALANCE IN PAKISTAN? EVIDENCE BASED ON J- CURVE","authors":"Aamir Khan, Muhammad Arshad Khan, A. Salman","doi":"10.20472/es.2019.8.2.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20472/es.2019.8.2.005","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to find out the relationship of how exchange rate effect the balance of trade in Pakistan over the period 1982-2016 within the context of J-curve phenomenon. We employed an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration. To investigate the short run dynamics of the study, we have estimated an error correction model. The unit root results provide a mix of I(0) and I(1) variables. The results of diagnostic tests indicate no econometric problem in the estimated model. The CUSUM and CUSUM of squared test confirms the stability of the estimated model. We summarize the estimated results as follow: first, we found an evidence of cointegration among the variables. Second, the long run results shows significant effect of REER on trade balance in Pakistan. Third, we found an evidence of J-curve in case of Pakistan.","PeriodicalId":42415,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economic Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67599084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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