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The sounds of silence: Democracy and the referendum on (FYRO)/(North) Macedonia 沉默之声:民主与(FYRO)/(北)马其顿公投
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.1177/2336825X211010667
Liridona Veliu
Prevailing studies on silence and democracy, in spite of silence’s inherently ambiguous nature, focus on subscribing meaning(s) to silence. Such attempts of turning silence into speech, point to an adversary relationship between silence and democratic theory. First, this article conducts an onto-epistemological critique of democratic theory’s treatment of silence (as meaning). Second, it suggests that there are self-reflective analytical benefits for scholars of democratic theory should they broaden up their gaze from silence as meaning toward silence-as-doing. This article argues that this can be done by shifting the epistemological focus from interpreting possible meanings behind the nonvoters’ silence into analyzing the context and/of interpretations of silence as ambiguous. Third, to illustrate this, the article uses the 2018 name referendum in North Macedonia which shows how the speech-centered approach of democratic theory is utilized to serve political goals rather than reaching the democratic ideal of “everyone having a vo-ice/te.”
尽管沉默具有固有的模糊性,但目前关于沉默与民主的研究大多侧重于为沉默赋予意义。这种将沉默转化为言论的尝试,表明沉默与民主理论之间存在对立关系。首先,本文对民主理论对沉默(作为意义)的处理进行了本体论的批判。其次,它表明,如果民主理论学者将目光从“作为意义的沉默”扩大到“作为的沉默”,就会有自我反思分析的好处。本文认为,这可以通过将认识论的焦点从解释沉默背后的可能意义转移到分析沉默的语境和/或解释为模棱两可来实现。第三,为了说明这一点,本文使用了2018年北马其顿的名称公投,这表明民主理论如何利用以言论为中心的方法来服务于政治目标,而不是达到“每个人都有发言权/发言权”的民主理想。
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引用次数: 0
Why nationalism is not the right doctrine to combat climate change – A Central European perspective 为什么民族主义不是应对气候变化的正确原则——中欧视角
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-04-15 DOI: 10.1177/2336825X211009107
Mats Braun
In several respects it is easy to agree with Anatol Lieven. To deal with the issue of climate change we need governance with a high level of legitimacy and trust, and the strategy needs to be long term for the present generation to accept sacrifices for the benefit of future generations. Yet is nationalism the political doctrine that could help the world to deliver on the need to decrease greenhouse gas emissions? Is nationalism, an ideology of the 19th century, the correct answer to the biggest challenge of the 21st century? First, I do not think many writers on nationalism dispute the positive aspects of nationalism. At least, if we look at authors in the modernist tradition, authors like Miroslav Hroch (1993) and Benedict Anderson (1983) and others do not dispute the important role of nationalism for the development of democracy and welfare states. In other contexts, authors working in a postcolonial tradition have suggested the crucial role of nationalism for emancipation and state building (see, e.g. Herr, 2003). Thus, a large part of the argumentation provided by Lieven on nationalism opens doors that already are wide open. Yet, the book is relevant. Lieven identifies and provides a correct problem description. The question of climate change responses is all about how we can find a narrative that allows us to act and make people feel included in the decision-making. This is in particular the case if we agree that to deal with climate change life style changes are necessary that go well beyond ideas of ecological modernization that would suggest that we could mitigate climate change efficiently through technological innovations and without reforms costly also in the long term. Yet, to argue that nationalism is the doctrine suitable for the task is a bold claim that the book provides little evidence of. I see at least three major objections. First, if we go beyond the US context and look for instance at Europe, as I will do in this intervention, the nation states can hardly
在几个方面,我们很容易同意阿纳托尔·列文的观点。为了应对气候变化问题,我们需要具有高度合法性和信任度的治理,战略需要是长期的,让当代人为了子孙后代的利益而接受牺牲。然而,民族主义是一种能够帮助世界实现减少温室气体排放需求的政治信条吗?民族主义这种19世纪的意识形态,是应对21世纪最大挑战的正确答案吗?首先,我不认为许多关于民族主义的作家会质疑民族主义的积极方面。至少,如果我们看一下现代主义传统的作者,像米罗斯拉夫·赫罗奇(1993)和本尼迪克特·安德森(1983)等人并没有质疑民族主义对民主和福利国家发展的重要作用。在其他背景下,研究后殖民传统的作者提出了民族主义对解放和国家建设的关键作用(参见Herr, 2003)。因此,利芬提供的关于民族主义的大部分论证打开了已经敞开的大门。然而,这本书是相关的。Lieven识别并提供正确的问题描述。应对气候变化的问题是我们如何找到一种叙事方式,让我们能够采取行动,让人们觉得自己参与了决策。如果我们同意应对气候变化,生活方式的改变是必要的,这远远超出了生态现代化的概念,这表明我们可以通过技术创新有效地缓解气候变化,而不需要长期昂贵的改革,情况尤其如此。然而,认为民族主义是适合这项任务的信条是一种大胆的主张,本书几乎没有提供任何证据。我认为至少有三个主要的反对意见。首先,如果我们超越美国的背景,以欧洲为例,正如我将在这次干预中所做的那样,民族国家很难
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引用次数: 2
Reality for realists: Climate Change and the Nation State 现实主义者的现实:气候变化与民族国家
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-04-13 DOI: 10.1177/2336825X211009093
R. Hallam
One of the best books on the climate crisis over the past 10 years, maybe the best book, is Anatol Lieven’s Climate Change and the Nation State. This is not because it is particularly original in its basic arguments about the nature of the political world. It presents a solidly realist argument with its many strengths and weaknesses. It is a great book because Lieven has the courage to expose the appalling inability of the various political realist communities to grasp the seriousness of the exponentially increasing threat to the very existence of organised human life. The failure of modern conservatives to deal effectively with the terror that is coming down the road must be the most powerful case study of the inability of humans to act in accordance with their beliefs and self-interest. Lieven accepts his faith in Enlightenment values is shaken by this failure. I would argue such faith is shattered on the floor. We are heading into the greatest period of social breakdown in world history and conservatives are betraying in their most basic value – the hint is in the name. They stand by while the consequence of state inaction is the tearing apart of the very fabric our societies. Is it eye watering stupidity, is it entrancement by an infinite evil, or it is just ‘one bloody thing after another’ writ large – writ on an infinite scale? People will debate this greatest of all betrayals for centuries to come, on the questionable assumption future societies will still value debate. As an award winning researcher in political mobilisation at King’s College I initiated the Extinction Rebellion movement with a presentation called ‘Pivoting to the real issue’ (note the word ‘real’) in January 2018. I produced the core strategic framework of mass civil disobedience for the movement which went on to become the number one global influencer on the climate in 2019, and spread to 70 odd countries, inspiring thousands to get arrested. It was a desperate attempt to persuade the elites of their last change to turn the world back from triggering the numerous geo physical and biological feedbacks which threaten to decimate the habitats upon which our existence depends. It failed. And the main reason for this failure was the unwillingness of the liberal and conservative political class to look beyond the pathetic distractions of their culture wars to see that preventing climate breakdown is the most serious political imperative of all time.
在过去的十年里,关于气候危机最好的书之一,也许是最好的书,是阿纳托尔·利芬的《气候变化与民族国家》。这并不是因为它关于政治世界本质的基本论点特别新颖。它提出了一个坚实的现实主义论点,有许多优点和缺点。这是一本伟大的书,因为利芬有勇气揭露了各种政治现实主义团体在把握对有组织的人类生活的存在的成倍增长的威胁的严重性方面的可怕无能。现代保守派未能有效应对即将到来的恐怖,这无疑是人类无法按照自己的信仰和自身利益行事的最有力案例。列文承认,这次失败动摇了他对启蒙运动价值观的信仰。我认为这种信念在地板上被粉碎了。我们正走向世界历史上最严重的社会崩溃时期,保守主义者正在背叛他们最基本的价值观——暗示就在名字里。他们袖手旁观,而国家不作为的后果是撕裂我们的社会结构。它是令人眼花缭乱的愚蠢,是被无限的邪恶所迷惑,还是只是“一件又一件血腥的事情”被放大了——以无限的规模写出来?在未来的几个世纪里,人们将对这一最伟大的背叛进行辩论,但前提是未来的社会仍将重视辩论。作为国王学院政治动员领域的获奖研究员,我于2018年1月发起了“灭绝叛乱”运动,发表了题为“转向真实问题”(注意“真实”这个词)的演讲。我为这场运动制定了大规模公民不服从的核心战略框架,该运动后来成为2019年全球气候影响最大的运动,并传播到70多个国家,激发了数千人被捕。这是一次绝望的尝试,试图说服精英们相信他们最后的改变,让世界从触发无数的地球物理和生物反馈中恢复过来,这些反馈威胁着摧毁我们赖以生存的栖息地。它失败了。失败的主要原因是,自由派和保守派政治阶层不愿意超越文化战争的可悲分心,看到防止气候崩溃是有史以来最严肃的政治当务之急。
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引用次数: 0
Election boycott in a hybrid regime: The case of 2020 parliamentary elections in Serbia 混合政权中的选举抵制:塞尔维亚2020年议会选举的案例
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-04-13 DOI: 10.1177/2336825X211009106
D. Bursać, Dušan Vučićević
The 2020 elections in Serbia were held on 21st of June, as the first elections in Europe since the outbreak of coronavirus pandemic. The pre-electoral period was marked by the announcement of boycott from opposition, followed by a number of attempts of ruling party to mitigate the potential negative effects. The decision of opposition to restrain from participation came as a response to the long-term accusations of heavily biased electoral and media conditions, which culminated in EU-mediated (but largely unsuccessful) roundtable talks in 2019. On a larger scale, the administration headed by the President Aleksandar Vučić is becoming increasingly authoritarian, with several indices now classifying Serbia as a hybrid regime. As expected, the elections brought a convincing victory to Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party, which won 188 out of 250 seats. Despite the overwhelming triumph, government was formed more than four months later. This paper is contributing to the literature on actors’ strategies in hybrid regimes. Although only short-term effects of the boycott could be assessed, the 2020 elections in Serbia demonstrate that legitimacy of the regime cannot be endangered if the opposition is not supported by international actors, and moreover, that the election results have only strengthened the regime.
塞尔维亚2020年选举于6月21日举行,这是欧洲自冠状病毒大流行爆发以来的首次选举。在选举前的一段时间里,反对派宣布抵制选举,随后执政党多次尝试减轻潜在的负面影响。反对派决定限制参与,是对长期以来对选举和媒体条件存在严重偏见的指责的回应,这种指责最终导致了2019年欧盟调解的圆桌会议(但基本上没有成功)。在更大的范围内,由Aleksandar vu伊奇总统领导的政府正变得越来越专制,几个指标现在将塞尔维亚归类为混合政权。正如预期的那样,vu伊奇的塞尔维亚进步党在选举中取得了令人信服的胜利,赢得了250个席位中的188个。尽管取得了压倒性的胜利,但政府在四个多月后才成立。本文对研究混合制度下行为者策略的文献有贡献。虽然只能评估抵制的短期影响,但塞尔维亚2020年的选举表明,如果反对派没有得到国际行动者的支持,政权的合法性就不会受到威胁,而且,选举结果只会加强政权。
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引用次数: 2
From realist to pragmatic solutions to climate change: Reading Anatol Lieven’s Climate Change and the Nation State 从现实主义到务实的气候变化解决方案:阅读阿纳托尔·利芬的《气候变化与民族国家》
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-04-13 DOI: 10.1177/2336825X211009097
Miriam Matejová
I have a soft spot for realism. While I find the realist worldview at times pessimistic and often incomplete, the logic and mechanics of power, prudence, and self-help have frequently aligned with my Central European roots. Educated in Canada, I have studied both environmental and security issues separately—the former due to my growing awareness of the risks that environmental degradation poses to human societies and the latter mostly due to the lure of realist explanations of the world. Anatol Lieven’s book immediately appealed to my academic split personality. In Climate Change and the Nation State: The Case for Nationalism in a Warming World, Lieven makes a convincing case that climate change is the greatest security threat to the long-term interests of the world’s Great Powers. Crises and especially climate-exacerbated migration will make it difficult for states to achieve political consensus and act on climate change. Lieven paints a scary future, whether we get there gradually or abruptly. It is a world of not only devastating impacts from climate change (e.g., droughts, sudden disasters) but also a world where growing social and political disruptions outgrow states’ security forces and draw in militaries for domestic control (Lieven, 2020: 9). Meaningful action will require a push against contemporary culture, consumerism, and our increasingly shorter attention spans—and according to Lieven, that push can only come from a place of fear that something threatens one’s nation. A long-sighted, civic (as opposed to ethnic) nationalism can generate such fear (Lieven, 2020: 84). Lieven (2020: 76) argues that nationalism is the one force that overcomes the problem of sacrifice by current generations for future generations, the problem that must be solved in order to address climate change effectively. Nationalism legitimizes that sacrifice and makes sense of it. Calling for a political compromise and centrist attitude, Lieven proposes two specific steps: state militaries must
我对现实主义情有独锺。虽然我发现现实主义的世界观有时是悲观的,而且常常是不完整的,但权力、谨慎和自助的逻辑和机制却经常与我的中欧根源相一致。在加拿大接受教育的我分别研究了环境和安全问题——前者是因为我越来越意识到环境退化给人类社会带来的风险,而后者主要是因为现实主义对世界解释的诱惑。阿纳托尔·利芬的书立刻引起了我学术人格分裂的兴趣。在《气候变化与民族国家:全球变暖中的民族主义》一书中,利芬令人信服地指出,气候变化是对世界大国长期利益的最大安全威胁。危机,尤其是气候加剧的移民,将使各国难以达成政治共识并就气候变化采取行动。利芬描绘了一个可怕的未来,无论我们是逐渐地还是突然地到达那里。这个世界不仅受到气候变化的破坏性影响(例如,干旱、突发灾害),而且社会和政治混乱日益严重,超出了国家安全部队的能力范围,并吸引了军队进行国内控制(Lieven, 2020: 9)。有意义的行动将需要推动当代文化、消费主义,以及我们越来越短的注意力跨度——根据Lieven的说法,这种推动只能来自一个害怕某些东西威胁到一个国家的地方。一种有远见的、公民的(而不是种族的)民族主义会产生这种恐惧(Lieven, 2020: 84)。Lieven(2020: 76)认为,民族主义是克服当代人为后代牺牲问题的一种力量,为了有效应对气候变化,必须解决这个问题。民族主义使这种牺牲合法化,并使之有意义。呼吁政治妥协和中立态度,利芬提出了两个具体步骤:国家军队必须
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引用次数: 1
Grey matters: Advancing a psychological effects-based approach to countering malign information influence 灰色问题:推进基于心理效应的方法来对抗恶意信息影响
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-03-09 DOI: 10.1177/2336825X21995702
A. Hoyle, Helma van den Berg, B. Doosje, Martijn Kitzen
Hostile political actors frequently engage in malign information influence, projecting antagonistic strategic narratives in targeted societies to manipulate the information environment and distort the perceptions of the citizens. Research examining malign information influence is growing, but more attention could be given to its psychological effects. Information operations are commonly assumed to affect the levels of trust and the emotional experiences of citizens who are targeted by them, but these notions are currently supported by limited evidence. We propose that experimental psychological research is a promising avenue to more clearly demonstrate these effects and individual differences of the target audience that may exacerbate these effects. This article discusses the knowledge gap regarding the psychological effects of malign information influence and suggests relevant psychological research that can be built upon when devising experimental studies that might address it. Finally, the article outlines key benefits that insights gleaned from this experimental research would offer to those seeking to counter malign information influence.
敌对的政治行为者经常进行恶意的信息影响,在目标社会中投射对抗性的战略叙述,以操纵信息环境并扭曲公民的看法。虽然对恶性信息影响的研究越来越多,但应该更多地关注其心理影响。信息操作通常被认为会影响被其攻击的公民的信任水平和情感体验,但这些观点目前受到有限证据的支持。我们认为,实验心理学研究是一个有希望的途径,可以更清楚地证明这些影响和目标受众的个体差异,可能会加剧这些影响。本文讨论了关于恶性信息影响的心理影响的知识差距,并建议在设计可能解决这一问题的实验研究时可以建立相关的心理学研究。最后,文章概述了从这项实验研究中收集到的见解将为那些寻求对抗恶意信息影响的人提供的关键好处。
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引用次数: 1
Belarus’ new political nation? 2020 anti-authoritarian protests as identity building 白俄罗斯的新政治国家?2020年,反威权抗议作为身份认同的建立
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/2336825X20984340
Aliaksei Kazharski
The rigged 2020 presidential election in Belarus, as well as the disproportionate use of violence by authorities and multiple reports of tortures of detainees served as a catalyst for the Belarusian society. The mass protests that ensued were on a scale unseen since the 1990’s. Mass mobilization of citizens during Sunday rallies as well as grassroot activity and the rise of local communities led some to proclaim the birth of a new civic society and even a new Belarusian political nation (Przybylski, 2020). The ultimate validity of these statements can be fully evaluated only with the benefit of hindsight, which we do not have as of the time of writing. One can nevertheless safely argue that unprecedented mass political mobilization and new forms of horizontal solidarity are important contributions to nation building—which, in the social constructivist paradigm, should be understood as a never-ending process rather than a singular event. This line of thought has been previously developed by authors who understand nations and nation-states as performing their identities through various genres of cultural production (e.g. Shapiro, 2004). This contribution focuses on symbolic politics of the protest movement as ‘‘signifying practices’’ (Hall, 1997) and examines ways in which these practices reappropriate crucial symbolic legacies in order to articulate a new political subject through representations of an anti-Lukashenka majority. Following a discussion of the broader context of identity building in the post-Communist Belarus, I provide an empirical analysis of two key legacies recycled by the protests. The first one is the political legacy of Belarusian national revivalism and its symbols that quickly became the dominant visual theme in the protests. Though, in their origin, these symbols were closely linked to ethnocultural Belarusian nationalism, the protest movement has worked to resignify them into
白俄罗斯2020年总统选举受到操纵,当局过度使用暴力,以及有关被拘留者遭受酷刑的多份报告,都是白俄罗斯社会的催化剂。随后的大规模抗议活动达到了自20世纪90年代以来从未见过的规模。周日集会期间公民的大规模动员,以及基层活动和当地社区的兴起,导致一些人宣布新的公民社会甚至新的白俄罗斯政治国家的诞生(Przybylski, 2020)。这些陈述的最终有效性只能通过后见之明来充分评估,而在撰写本文时,我们还没有后见之明。尽管如此,人们可以肯定地说,前所未有的大规模政治动员和新形式的横向团结是对国家建设的重要贡献——在社会建构主义范式中,国家建设应该被理解为一个永无止境的过程,而不是一个单一的事件。这一思路之前已经由一些作者发展起来,他们认为民族和民族国家通过各种文化生产类型来表现他们的身份(例如夏皮罗,2004)。这篇文章关注的是作为“象征实践”的抗议运动的象征政治(Hall, 1997),并研究了这些实践如何重新利用重要的象征遗产,以便通过反卢卡申科多数的代表来阐明一个新的政治主题。在讨论了后共产主义白俄罗斯身份建构的更广泛背景之后,我对抗议活动中回收的两个关键遗产进行了实证分析。第一个是白俄罗斯民族复兴主义的政治遗产及其象征,这些象征迅速成为抗议活动的主要视觉主题。尽管在起源上,这些符号与白俄罗斯民族主义的民族文化密切相关,但抗议运动一直在努力将它们重新定义为
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引用次数: 19
Creating a comprehensive peaceful assembly law for Ukraine: Idea and ideal 为乌克兰制定全面的和平集会法:构想与理想
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/2336825x20983743
G. Mykhailiuk, Larry A. DiMatteo
The right to freedom of peaceful assembly is guaranteed by Article 39 of the Ukrainian Constitution. However, there is no stand-alone law or case law that defines, regulates and supports the process of organizing and conducting peaceful assemblies. This is largely due to the fact that until the 2014 Maidan Revolution (Euromaidan), Ukraine’s history was one of autocratic rule. This article argues that given this historical context, secondary legislation is needed to safeguard this freedom and entrench it into Ukrainian legal culture. The idea of the right to peaceful assembly is sacrosanct. This article analyses the key elements needed to transform this idea into an ideal law. For example, any such legislation should follow the spirit of the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR), especially in the area of limitations of the personal freedom. Ukraine has moved forward on a broad reform agenda including reforms of the judiciary in order to create an independent and competent court system. It is widely recognized that such a system is needed to fight widespread corruption. The article argues that now is the time to enact a law on peaceful assembly in order to elevate Ukraine’s legal system to EU and international standards.
《乌克兰宪法》第39条保障和平集会自由的权利。然而,没有单独的法律或判例法来界定、规范和支持组织和进行和平集会的进程。这在很大程度上是因为在2014年的独立革命(Euromaidan)之前,乌克兰的历史是专制统治的历史。本文认为,鉴于这一历史背景,需要二级立法来保障这种自由,并将其纳入乌克兰法律文化。和平集会的权利是神圣不可侵犯的。本文分析了将这一理念转化为理想法律所需的关键要素。例如,任何这类立法都应遵循《欧洲人权公约》的精神,特别是在限制人身自由方面。乌克兰在广泛的改革议程上取得了进展,包括司法改革,以便建立一个独立和有能力的法院系统。人们普遍认为,需要这样一个制度来打击普遍存在的腐败。文章认为,现在是制定和平集会法的时候了,以便将乌克兰的法律制度提升到欧盟和国际标准。
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引用次数: 2
Russia’s cultural leverage in Belarus 俄罗斯在白俄罗斯的文化影响力
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/2336825X20984331
Piotr Rudkouski
In 2020, we have witnessed unprecedented mass mobilization of Belarusians against autocracy and lawlessness. The durability of protests, scale of solidarity, ability of self-organization, and readiness to accept serious risks seem to testify to the fact that the demand for democracy is rooted in the value sphere. There is, however, a distinctly Belarusian problem in this context, relating to national identity. In this forum contribution, I will first specify the problem of Belarusian national identity and provide evidence of its weakness. Second, I will argue that Belarusians tend to compensate for the weakness of their national identity by reinforcing a supranational identity. The ‘Russian World’ (Russkiy mir) currently fulfils this function. Third, I will show that Belarusians are relatively eurosceptic, and suggest that this is a byproduct of attachment to Russianness as a substitute for national identity.
2020年,我们目睹了白俄罗斯人民前所未有的大规模动员,反对专制和无法无天。抗议的持久性、团结的规模、自我组织的能力和接受严重风险的意愿似乎证明了这样一个事实,即对民主的要求植根于价值领域。然而,在这方面有一个明显的白俄罗斯问题,与民族特性有关。在这篇论坛文章中,我将首先具体说明白俄罗斯民族认同的问题,并提供其弱点的证据。其次,我认为白俄罗斯人倾向于通过强化超国家认同来弥补其民族认同的弱点。“俄罗斯世界”(Russkiy mir)目前正在履行这一职能。第三,我将证明白俄罗斯人相对来说对欧洲持怀疑态度,并指出这是将俄罗斯作为国家认同的替代品而产生的副产品。
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引用次数: 2
Russia’s game in Belarus: 2020 presidential elections as a checkmate for Lukashenka? 俄罗斯在白俄罗斯的比赛:2020年总统选举是卢卡申科的将军?
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/2336825X20984337
Alla Leukavets
It is sometimes claimed that during his 26 years of rule Lukashenka has acted as a guarantor of Belarusian sovereignty (Preiherman, 2018; Tsikhamirau, 2018). According to this point of view, as long as Lukashenka stays in power, Russia will not be able to fully control Belarus. This paper will argue that although during Lukashenka’s time in office Belarus has avoided deeper integration with Russia within the Union State, the Belarusian regime has failed to reduce the country’s economic dependence on its eastern neighbor. This provided the Kremlin with leverage to control Belarus, compromising its sovereignty. The extent of the leverage became particularly evident in the wake of the 2020 presidential elections when the survival of the Belarusian regime proved to be contingent on Russia’s support. The Kremlin’s generous economic assistance over the last 26 years has created a “sponsored authoritarianism” in Belarus. Lukashenka’s role in it is to ensure that the country will not leave the orbit of Russia’s influence and drift to the West while the Kremlin attempts to realize a soft mode of occupation of Belarus via deep economic and political integration under the auspices of unified supranational bodies. The paper starts by analyzing different phases in Belarus-Russia relations in 2000–2020 and argues that the recent presidential elections in Belarus have become a new critical juncture. The work proceeds with assessing the extent of Russia’s economic leverage over Belarus in 2000–2020 by focusing on three main components: 1) Belarus-Russia bilateral trade 2) Belarus’s energy dependence on Russia 3) Russia’s financial support to Belarus. The paper demonstrates that by the time of the 2020 presidential elections none of these components have been reduced, thus making the Belarusian regime vulnerable to Kremlin’s pressure. The work concludes by discussing the trajectory of Belarus’s future regardless of whether Lukashenka stays in power or leaves office and argues that the Belarusian protests represent both a challenge and an opportunity for the Kremlin.
有时有人声称,在他26年的统治期间,卢卡申科充当了白俄罗斯主权的保证人(Preiherman, 2018;Tsikhamirau, 2018)。按照这种观点,只要卢卡申科继续掌权,俄罗斯就不可能完全控制白俄罗斯。本文将论证,尽管在卢卡申科执政期间,白俄罗斯在联盟国家内避免了与俄罗斯更深层次的融合,但白俄罗斯政权未能减少该国对其东部邻国的经济依赖。这为克里姆林宫提供了控制白俄罗斯的筹码,损害了白俄罗斯的主权。在2020年总统大选之后,这种影响力的程度变得尤为明显,当时白俄罗斯政权的生存被证明取决于俄罗斯的支持。过去26年来,克里姆林宫慷慨的经济援助在白俄罗斯创造了一个“赞助的威权主义”。在此过程中,卢卡申科的作用是确保白俄罗斯不会脱离俄罗斯的影响轨道,向西方靠拢,而克里姆林宫则试图在统一的超国家机构的支持下,通过深度的经济和政治一体化,实现对白俄罗斯的软占领模式。本文首先分析了2000-2020年白俄关系的不同阶段,并认为最近的白俄罗斯总统选举成为一个新的关键节点。通过关注三个主要组成部分,评估2000-2020年俄罗斯对白俄罗斯的经济影响力程度:1)白俄罗斯与俄罗斯的双边贸易;2)白俄罗斯对俄罗斯的能源依赖;3)俄罗斯对白俄罗斯的财政支持。这篇论文表明,到2020年总统选举时,这些因素都没有减少,因此白俄罗斯政权很容易受到克里姆林宫的压力。文章最后讨论了白俄罗斯未来的发展轨迹,无论卢卡申科是继续执政还是下台,并认为白俄罗斯的抗议活动对克里姆林宫来说既是挑战,也是机遇。
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引用次数: 5
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New Perspectives
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