From the perspective of his twelve years of service at the Fiscal Council of Hungary (Fiscal Council, FC, Council), the author reviews the so-called rule-based budgeting practices that have been in use in some sixty countries around the world for decades, and their role in creating and maintaining financial stability. The article refers to the possibilities of contribution of institutions overviewing the enforcement of fiscal rules while strengthening resilience to economic crises. It presents the links between EU and Hungarian legislation, and the main ideas that emerged in the preparation of the professional-political decisions for the further development of the system in order to better enforce fiscal responsibility. It proves that the framework and the body that enforces it have become a useful and indispensable part of the fiscal policy and, as its annual implementation, of the Hungarian budgetary practice.
{"title":"Rule-based budgeting and the financial stability – the European solution","authors":"Árpád Kovács","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_3_1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_3_1","url":null,"abstract":"From the perspective of his twelve years of service at the Fiscal Council of Hungary (Fiscal Council, FC, Council), the author reviews the so-called rule-based budgeting practices that have been in use in some sixty countries around the world for decades, and their role in creating and maintaining financial stability. The article refers to the possibilities of contribution of institutions overviewing the enforcement of fiscal rules while strengthening resilience to economic crises. It presents the links between EU and Hungarian legislation, and the main ideas that emerged in the preparation of the professional-political decisions for the further development of the system in order to better enforce fiscal responsibility. It proves that the framework and the body that enforces it have become a useful and indispensable part of the fiscal policy and, as its annual implementation, of the Hungarian budgetary practice.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135132664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Achieving economic growth remains an important issue for economic policy today. Growth in developed economies has slowed considerably in recent decades. In our study, we examine economic growth in the euro area between 2010 and 2019 in the light of secular stagnation theory. The concept of secular stagnation was developed by Hansen after the Great Depression of 1929-33. According to this theory, the cauSes of secular stagnation are low population growth and weak technological development. The concept was brought back into the economic discourse after 2010 by Summers.
{"title":"Euro area economic growth between 2010 and 2019 in the light of secular stagnation theory","authors":"Tibor Tatay, Eszter Kazinczy","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_3_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_3_4","url":null,"abstract":"Achieving economic growth remains an important issue for economic policy today. Growth in developed economies has slowed considerably in recent decades. In our study, we examine economic growth in the euro area between 2010 and 2019 in the light of secular stagnation theory. The concept of secular stagnation was developed by Hansen after the Great Depression of 1929-33. According to this theory, the cauSes of secular stagnation are low population growth and weak technological development. The concept was brought back into the economic discourse after 2010 by Summers.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135132666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The primary tool for managing bank default risk is the credit rating of potential customers. The focus of the present study is on the logistic regression method used to construct 95% of the lender scorecards. The aim of the research is to determine how much the treatment of outliers improves the classification accuracy of the models when using a method that is highly sensitive to outliers, and which method of treating outliers results in the highest classification accuracy. Furthermore, what criteria should be used to determine the cut-off value of the models for a sample that does not contain solvent and insolvent businesses in equal proportions. The analysis was carried out on a sample of 1677 construction companies. The results show that the treatment of outliers significantly improves the predictive ability of the models, while the replacement of outliers with the closest non-outlier proved to be the most effective for treating outliers. When determining the cut-off, it is inappropriate to use the value that results in the highest classification accuracy, as this may lead to an increase in the proportion of first-order errors. The optimisation of this value may depend on the degree of credit risk taken by a given financial institution in its portfolio of loans.
{"title":"Handling outliers in bankruptcy prediction models based on logistic regression","authors":"Tünde Katalin Szántó","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_3_5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_3_5","url":null,"abstract":"The primary tool for managing bank default risk is the credit rating of potential customers. The focus of the present study is on the logistic regression method used to construct 95% of the lender scorecards. The aim of the research is to determine how much the treatment of outliers improves the classification accuracy of the models when using a method that is highly sensitive to outliers, and which method of treating outliers results in the highest classification accuracy. Furthermore, what criteria should be used to determine the cut-off value of the models for a sample that does not contain solvent and insolvent businesses in equal proportions. The analysis was carried out on a sample of 1677 construction companies. The results show that the treatment of outliers significantly improves the predictive ability of the models, while the replacement of outliers with the closest non-outlier proved to be the most effective for treating outliers. When determining the cut-off, it is inappropriate to use the value that results in the highest classification accuracy, as this may lead to an increase in the proportion of first-order errors. The optimisation of this value may depend on the degree of credit risk taken by a given financial institution in its portfolio of loans.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135132665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
As a continuation of a preceding article discussing liquidity creation based on promissory notes and bills of exchange, the present study introduces how the use of notes and bills can foster the particular economic sectors and public debt management at a time. A financial policy package of measures first suggested by Lautenbach then introduced by Schacht fought off recession and inflation within half a decade in the German economy. We make up for a professional hiatus in the Hungarian economic literature, in that we provide a detailed evaluation of the financial solution of Schacht which has appeared in many forms in the international literature..
{"title":"A stagflation-proof bill of exchange circulation model – Presentation and evaluation","authors":"Zsuzsanna Novák, Zsuzsanna Szalay","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_3_6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_3_6","url":null,"abstract":"As a continuation of a preceding article discussing liquidity creation based on promissory notes and bills of exchange, the present study introduces how the use of notes and bills can foster the particular economic sectors and public debt management at a time. A financial policy package of measures first suggested by Lautenbach then introduced by Schacht fought off recession and inflation within half a decade in the German economy. We make up for a professional hiatus in the Hungarian economic literature, in that we provide a detailed evaluation of the financial solution of Schacht which has appeared in many forms in the international literature..","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135132662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Review of the book by Zoltán Pogátsa: Sustainable Economy or Social Collaps
Zoltán Pogátsa对该书的评论:可持续经济还是社会崩溃
{"title":"Non-growth or social collapse?!","authors":"Tamás Pesuth","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_3_7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_3_7","url":null,"abstract":"Review of the book by Zoltán Pogátsa: Sustainable Economy or Social Collaps","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135132668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dániel Lerner-Nagy, András Straubinger, Dániel Szabadkai
In the spring of 2020, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) expanded the pool of assets eligible as collateral for central bank lending by accepting loans granted to large corporates customers as collateral, thus widening the lending channel between the MNB and credit institutions and providing credit institutions with a wider leeway in ALM (Asset-Liability Management). In this paper we analyse the MNB’s framework of conditions for the eligibility of large corporate receivables in respect to the principles of collateral management including, in particular, the management of legal risks. The inclusion of such transactions as collateral is challenging from both a legal and an operational perspective, since eligibility for use as collateral requires the development of a framework that fully ensures the enforceability of large corporate receivables accepted as collateral, and compliance with all other relevant collateral management principles. It is concluded from the analysis that a set of strict conditions and the operational framework supporting it can ensure the management of legal risks, but can also be noted that there may be trade-offs between simple asset-liability and liquidity management, and compliance with the complex system of corporate receivables conditions.
{"title":"Acceptance of large corporate receivables as collateral – the practice of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank in view of the principles of collateral management, with a specific focus on legal risks","authors":"Dániel Lerner-Nagy, András Straubinger, Dániel Szabadkai","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_3_2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_3_2","url":null,"abstract":"In the spring of 2020, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) expanded the pool of assets eligible as collateral for central bank lending by accepting loans granted to large corporates customers as collateral, thus widening the lending channel between the MNB and credit institutions and providing credit institutions with a wider leeway in ALM (Asset-Liability Management). In this paper we analyse the MNB’s framework of conditions for the eligibility of large corporate receivables in respect to the principles of collateral management including, in particular, the management of legal risks. The inclusion of such transactions as collateral is challenging from both a legal and an operational perspective, since eligibility for use as collateral requires the development of a framework that fully ensures the enforceability of large corporate receivables accepted as collateral, and compliance with all other relevant collateral management principles. It is concluded from the analysis that a set of strict conditions and the operational framework supporting it can ensure the management of legal risks, but can also be noted that there may be trade-offs between simple asset-liability and liquidity management, and compliance with the complex system of corporate receivables conditions.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135132667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gábor Vajda, Antal Martzy, Zoltán Lovász, Zoltán Zéman
Magyar Bankholding was created as a result of the integration of three large banks, where digitisation and data centricity, including also the creation of efficient data asset management, were emphasised from the very beginning. Our study investigates, as a case study, whether a survey and preparation work based on the maturity assessment method can shorten the implementation time of a data asset, estimated at 1 to 1.5 years, to 7 months in a complex bank integration process. The results were backtested one year after the work was completed, so all the effects could be evaluated. It can be concluded that the application of the methodology described in the study has had a positive impact not only on time requirements, but also on business, digitalisation and technological objectives.
Magyar Bankholding是三家大型银行整合的结果，从一开始就强调数字化和数据中心，包括创建高效的数据资产管理。作为一个案例，我们的研究探讨了在一个复杂的银行整合过程中，基于期限评估方法的调查和准备工作是否可以将数据资产的实施时间从估计的1 - 1.5年缩短到7个月。在工作完成一年后对结果进行回溯测试，以便对所有效果进行评估。可以得出结论，研究中描述的方法的应用不仅对时间要求产生了积极影响，而且对业务，数字化和技术目标也产生了积极影响。
{"title":"Integration of financial institutions supported with data asset development – Magyar Bankholding case study","authors":"Gábor Vajda, Antal Martzy, Zoltán Lovász, Zoltán Zéman","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_3_3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_3_3","url":null,"abstract":"Magyar Bankholding was created as a result of the integration of three large banks, where digitisation and data centricity, including also the creation of efficient data asset management, were emphasised from the very beginning. Our study investigates, as a case study, whether a survey and preparation work based on the maturity assessment method can shorten the implementation time of a data asset, estimated at 1 to 1.5 years, to 7 months in a complex bank integration process. The results were backtested one year after the work was completed, so all the effects could be evaluated. It can be concluded that the application of the methodology described in the study has had a positive impact not only on time requirements, but also on business, digitalisation and technological objectives.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135132663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The study examines data regarding splitting of family tax benefit received upon children in personal income taxation and the strategies of those splitting the tax benefit. The purpose of the investigation is to analyse proportions of sharing and principles of couples who split the family tax benefit each other, increasing or decreasing each other’s financial opportunities. During the investigations, starting from a general analysis of the thousand people sample of family tax benefit beneficiaries from personal income tax return, we examined more detailed data of those who fully realized the family tax benefit. In the course of the examination we set up theoretical strategies for the analysis of the possible ways of splitting the tax benefit in order to check their matching with real data. The sharing strategy identifiable in the highest proportion was realizing the family tax benefit by 50%-50% by family members, which is influenced primarily by the realizing preferences of families with two children. A theoretical decision-making strategy has been identified in the case of more than half of the families fully realising family tax benefit. It has been found that, after the use in a fifty-fifty ratio, the preference of fathers’ recourse is slightly stronger than mothers’ due to the impact of families with three or more children. This is also typical of cases not identified with a specific strategy. The reason of preferring fathers’ recourse is mostly the idea that who has a larger tax base should use the tax benefit. However, this is not typical for giving preference to maternal use. Our findings indicate that families most often decide on the simplest solution that still can be considered rational, when sharing family tax benefit, which decision is differentiated according to the number of children.
{"title":"Characteristics of splitting family tax benefit and strategies of those choosing the splitting","authors":"Éva Szabóné Bonifert","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_2_1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_2_1","url":null,"abstract":"The study examines data regarding splitting of family tax benefit received upon children in personal income taxation and the strategies of those splitting the tax benefit. The purpose of the investigation is to analyse proportions of sharing and principles of couples who split the family tax benefit each other, increasing or decreasing each other’s financial opportunities. During the investigations, starting from a general analysis of the thousand people sample of family tax benefit beneficiaries from personal income tax return, we examined more detailed data of those who fully realized the family tax benefit. In the course of the examination we set up theoretical strategies for the analysis of the possible ways of splitting the tax benefit in order to check their matching with real data. The sharing strategy identifiable in the highest proportion was realizing the family tax benefit by 50%-50% by family members, which is influenced primarily by the realizing preferences of families with two children. A theoretical decision-making strategy has been identified in the case of more than half of the families fully realising family tax benefit. It has been found that, after the use in a fifty-fifty ratio, the preference of fathers’ recourse is slightly stronger than mothers’ due to the impact of families with three or more children. This is also typical of cases not identified with a specific strategy. The reason of preferring fathers’ recourse is mostly the idea that who has a larger tax base should use the tax benefit. However, this is not typical for giving preference to maternal use. Our findings indicate that families most often decide on the simplest solution that still can be considered rational, when sharing family tax benefit, which decision is differentiated according to the number of children.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44912610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Only some of the Sections of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS) compile a list of journals. One of these is the IX Section of Economics and Law of the MTA. The section›s doctoral committees evaluate candidates for the title of Doctor of the Academy of Sciences on the basis of eight lists of journals. The lists are generally stable in the sense that they remain unchanged for about five years, but renewal of the lists becomes necessary from time to time. In this publication, we describe the process of renewing the list of journals of the Qualification Committee for Doctoral Candidates in Economics and Management, Section IX of the Academy of Sciences, from the method of compiling the list of journals to the statistical methods used to determine the journal categories A, B, C, and D.
{"title":"Compilation of an International Journal List in the HAS IX. Section of the Doctoral Committee for Economics and Management","authors":"Imre Dobos, P. Halmai, P. Sasvári","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_2_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_2_4","url":null,"abstract":"Only some of the Sections of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS) compile a list of journals. One of these is the IX Section of Economics and Law of the MTA. The section›s doctoral committees evaluate candidates for the title of Doctor of the Academy of Sciences on the basis of eight lists of journals. The lists are generally stable in the sense that they remain unchanged for about five years, but renewal of the lists becomes necessary from time to time. In this publication, we describe the process of renewing the list of journals of the Qualification Committee for Doctoral Candidates in Economics and Management, Section IX of the Academy of Sciences, from the method of compiling the list of journals to the statistical methods used to determine the journal categories A, B, C, and D.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69883538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
On the basis of a complex methodology,the study shows that territorial disparities in the European Union have been decreasing since 2004, and, at the same time, examines the claim that the intense development and convergence of countries go hand in hand with regional divergences within these countries (at NUTS2 level). The results show that convergence occurred mainly during the recovery phases between crises causing significant downturns, and the development and catching-up tendencies of convergence countries have also contributed to that. While inequalities have been reduced in the EU, there seem to be increasing gaps between countries and regions, with the top performing better and better, while other countries and regions are becoming poorer compared to the average. When examining regional disparities within countries, divergence was mainly found in convergence countries and above- average performers achieving outstanding development.
{"title":"The impact of convergence of inequalities in the European Union since 2004","authors":"Tünde Gergics","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_2_2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_2_2","url":null,"abstract":"On the basis of a complex methodology,the study shows that territorial disparities in the European Union have been decreasing since 2004, and, at the same time, examines the claim that the intense development and convergence of countries go hand in hand with regional divergences within these countries (at NUTS2 level). The results show that convergence occurred mainly during the recovery phases between crises causing significant downturns, and the development and catching-up tendencies of convergence countries have also contributed to that. While inequalities have been reduced in the EU, there seem to be increasing gaps between countries and regions, with the top performing better and better, while other countries and regions are becoming poorer compared to the average. When examining regional disparities within countries, divergence was mainly found in convergence countries and above- average performers achieving outstanding development.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48446223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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