Review of the book by Tamás Bánfi: APOCALYPSE! and again in PARADISE! Paradigm shift in society and finance?
Tamás Bánfi的书评：APOCALYSE！再次出现在天堂！社会和金融的范式转变？
{"title":"Apocalypse?! – Garden of Eden?!","authors":"Tamás Pesuth","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_2_8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_2_8","url":null,"abstract":"Review of the book by Tamás Bánfi: APOCALYPSE! and again in PARADISE! Paradigm shift in society and finance?","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42185231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In our paper, we investigate how effectively artificial intelligence can be used to predict stock market trends in the world’s leading equity markets over the period 01/01/2010 to 09/16/2022. Covid-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian war have had a strong impact on the capital markets and therefore the study was conducted in a highly volatile environment. The analysis was performed on three time intervals, using two machine learning algorithms of different complexity (decision tree, LSTM) and a parametric statistical model (linear regression). The evaluation of the results obtained was based on mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In our study, we show that predictive models can perform better than linear regression in the period of high volatility. Another important finding is that the predictive models performed better in the post-Russian-Ukrainian war period than after the outbreak of Covid-19. Stock market price forecasting can play an important role in fundamental and technical analysis, can be incorporated into the decision criteria of algorithmic trading, or can be used on its own to automate trading.
{"title":"Analysis of the performance of predictive models during Covid-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian war","authors":"László Vancsura, Tibor Bareith","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_2_7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_2_7","url":null,"abstract":"In our paper, we investigate how effectively artificial intelligence can be used to predict stock market trends in the world’s leading equity markets over the period 01/01/2010 to 09/16/2022. Covid-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian war have had a strong impact on the capital markets and therefore the study was conducted in a highly volatile environment. The analysis was performed on three time intervals, using two machine learning algorithms of different complexity (decision tree, LSTM) and a parametric statistical model (linear regression). The evaluation of the results obtained was based on mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In our study, we show that predictive models can perform better than linear regression in the period of high volatility. Another important finding is that the predictive models performed better in the post-Russian-Ukrainian war period than after the outbreak of Covid-19. Stock market price forecasting can play an important role in fundamental and technical analysis, can be incorporated into the decision criteria of algorithmic trading, or can be used on its own to automate trading.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46312532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Issue 2022/2 of Public Finance Quarterly highlights that investors, regulators, business partners and consumers evaluating the viability and long-term performance of businesses do not only rely on traditional business indicators/metrics, but also on non-financial – environmental, social and governance – risks and opportunities. In their decision-making processes, sustainability (ESG) aspects are increasingly emphasised (Boros at al, 2022). Continuing this thread of thought in an accounting approach, this paper draws attention to an underlying issue with the comparability of ESG reports, which is the absence of measurability and the lack of metric measurement systems. While financial statements are quantified mappings of economic events affecting a company, socio-political expectations and their impacts, which are formulated in ESG reports, are difficult to quantify and display in a measurable form. This research focuses on the quantitative and qualitative measurement, reliability and comparability of ESG indicators, data, ratings, scoring systems and metrics. A content analysis of domestic and international sustainability reports has been carried out and has lead to the conclusion that the problem in assessing environmental, social and corporate governance performance is not to be found in the lack of data, but in the oversupply of tools and frameworks.
《公共财政季刊》2022/2期强调，投资者、监管机构、商业伙伴和消费者在评估企业的生存能力和长期绩效时，不仅依赖于传统的商业指标/指标，还依赖于非金融的风险和机遇——环境、社会和治理。在他们的决策过程中，可持续发展(ESG)方面越来越受到重视(Boros at al, 2022)。在会计方法中继续这一思路，本文提请注意ESG报告可比性的潜在问题，即缺乏可衡量性和缺乏度量测量系统。虽然财务报表是影响公司的经济事件的量化映射，但在ESG报告中制定的社会政治期望及其影响很难量化并以可衡量的形式显示。本研究侧重于ESG指标、数据、评级、评分系统和指标的定量和定性测量、可靠性和可比性。对国内和国际可持续发展报告进行了内容分析，得出的结论是，评估环境、社会和公司治理绩效的问题不在于缺乏数据，而在于工具和框架供过于求。
{"title":"Squaring the Circle, or a Quantified Rating of ESG Reports","authors":"T. Hajdu, J. Lukács, Anita Reizingerné Ducsai","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_2_6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_2_6","url":null,"abstract":"Issue 2022/2 of Public Finance Quarterly highlights that investors, regulators, business partners and consumers evaluating the viability and long-term performance of businesses do not only rely on traditional business indicators/metrics, but also on non-financial – environmental, social and governance – risks and opportunities. In their decision-making processes, sustainability (ESG) aspects are increasingly emphasised (Boros at al, 2022). Continuing this thread of thought in an accounting approach, this paper draws attention to an underlying issue with the comparability of ESG reports, which is the absence of measurability and the lack of metric measurement systems. While financial statements are quantified mappings of economic events affecting a company, socio-political expectations and their impacts, which are formulated in ESG reports, are difficult to quantify and display in a measurable form. This research focuses on the quantitative and qualitative measurement, reliability and comparability of ESG indicators, data, ratings, scoring systems and metrics. A content analysis of domestic and international sustainability reports has been carried out and has lead to the conclusion that the problem in assessing environmental, social and corporate governance performance is not to be found in the lack of data, but in the oversupply of tools and frameworks.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41440955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The study undertakes to model of perfect quality in order to clarify the basic logic of quality improvement. The model defines the system of requirements based on the stakeholder’s point of view and the philosophy of Total Quality Management, which the perfect quality product can fully meet. The main obstacle may be that the system of stakeholder requirements is almost always fraught with internal contradictions. The system of requirements that has already been harmonized makes it possible to avoid the traditional way of quality development, namely the prioritization of requirements, and in this way, many of them being ignored. Consistency can be created primarily through mutual education, information, and lobbying activities. Some of the domestic public financial organizations can learn directly about the partial set of requirements of non-power stakeholders through legal remedy procedures, but for many this is not possible either. Few public financial organizations have a formal influence channel towards organizations exercising power, such as the State Audit Office and the Hungarian National Bank, which are far ahead of other organizations in terms of education and information.
{"title":"The perfect quality model and the quality of public finances","authors":"L. Csorba","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_2_3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_2_3","url":null,"abstract":"The study undertakes to model of perfect quality in order to clarify the basic logic of quality improvement. The model defines the system of requirements based on the stakeholder’s point of view and the philosophy of Total Quality Management, which the perfect quality product can fully meet. The main obstacle may be that the system of stakeholder requirements is almost always fraught with internal contradictions. The system of requirements that has already been harmonized makes it possible to avoid the traditional way of quality development, namely the prioritization of requirements, and in this way, many of them being ignored. Consistency can be created primarily through mutual education, information, and lobbying activities. Some of the domestic public financial organizations can learn directly about the partial set of requirements of non-power stakeholders through legal remedy procedures, but for many this is not possible either. Few public financial organizations have a formal influence channel towards organizations exercising power, such as the State Audit Office and the Hungarian National Bank, which are far ahead of other organizations in terms of education and information.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47872519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sport, as a sector of national strategy, has a key role in the economic and social development of Hungary and in the successful achievement of its national economic and national policy goals. The promotion of sport, sports activities, the creation and putting in place of the conditions for playing sport is – among other things – a public task of the state, which also implies state funding and the management of public funds. Transparency, accountability and integrity are the most important principles for the use of public funds, and should be a key priority for sports funding. Sports financing needs to move from an extensive to an intensive phase, and the introduction, development and widespread use of the latest innovative technologies in the field of sport must be prioritised. Spending and investment in sport, in the sport sector, and the further conscious and thoughtful development of the sport ecosystem can be seen as a multiple return on investment.
{"title":"The system of Hungarian sport financing, with special regard to public finance aspects","authors":"Nikolett Ágnes Tóth, Gábor Mátrai","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_2_5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_2_5","url":null,"abstract":"Sport, as a sector of national strategy, has a key role in the economic and social development of Hungary and in the successful achievement of its national economic and national policy goals. The promotion of sport, sports activities, the creation and putting in place of the conditions for playing sport is – among other things – a public task of the state, which also implies state funding and the management of public funds. Transparency, accountability and integrity are the most important principles for the use of public funds, and should be a key priority for sports funding. Sports financing needs to move from an extensive to an intensive phase, and the introduction, development and widespread use of the latest innovative technologies in the field of sport must be prioritised. Spending and investment in sport, in the sport sector, and the further conscious and thoughtful development of the sport ecosystem can be seen as a multiple return on investment.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41592957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Over the past half century, mainstream economics, the theoretical basis for the functioning of market economies, has contemplated value-neutral models paradoxically disconnected from reality. The forced abstraction of these models, as well as the fact that economic policies have been dominated by deregulation and liberalization resulted in a situation where markets have not been able to handle crises properly, and they themselves have become the causes of them. In this study, the author claims that there is a solution: a sustainable market economy, based on the reintegration of value orientation into market processes. In other words, a paradigm shift is needed with sustainability in its focus. But sustainability is just a buzzword, as long as we fail to realize the fact that we have limited room for manoeuvre in society and economy, and we cannot do everything we would otherwise have the opportunity to do. Knowing this, we can state it with certainty that only those nations will be successful in the 21st century that find the path to a sustainable market economy and are able to follow it. The model outlined by the author suggests directions for implementing this idea.
{"title":"Quo Vadis, Market Economy? Challenges of Sustainability and Values, Possible Answers","authors":"G. Kocziszky","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_1_1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_1_1","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past half century, mainstream economics, the theoretical basis for the functioning of market economies, has contemplated value-neutral models paradoxically disconnected from reality. The forced abstraction of these models, as well as the fact that economic policies have been dominated by deregulation and liberalization resulted in a situation where markets have not been able to handle crises properly, and they themselves have become the causes of them. In this study, the author claims that there is a solution: a sustainable market economy, based on the reintegration of value orientation into market processes. In other words, a paradigm shift is needed with sustainability in its focus. But sustainability is just a buzzword, as long as we fail to realize the fact that we have limited room for manoeuvre in society and economy, and we cannot do everything we would otherwise have the opportunity to do. Knowing this, we can state it with certainty that only those nations will be successful in the 21st century that find the path to a sustainable market economy and are able to follow it. The model outlined by the author suggests directions for implementing this idea.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69883094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines sustainable development from the perspective of financial risks, focusing on measurement issues, like the spatial localization of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). More exactly, the goal of the study is to present the European reception and implementation of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals established by the United Nations, and to determine the spatial localization of the SDGs at local level. Furthermore, it addresses the measurement of the sustainable development goals, because a measurement-based risk assessment plays a key role in the successful implementation of sustainable development based economic policy. As a case study for the measurement and localization of the SDGs, we will use the case of Romania, deploying a set of 90 indicators with a data source and method-mix, where Earth Observations and Geographical Information Systems play an important role. The results show that the methodology used in our studies can be applied with good results in the spatial localisation and the measurement of the sustainability indices. The latter register the highest scores, and therefore the lowest associated banking risks – with the exception of a few peri-urban communities – in large and medium sized cities.
{"title":"Spatial Localization of the Sustainable Development Goals","authors":"","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_1_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_1_4","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines sustainable development from the perspective of financial risks, focusing on measurement issues, like the spatial localization of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). More exactly, the goal of the study is to present the European reception and implementation of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals established by the United Nations, and to determine the spatial localization of the SDGs at local level. Furthermore, it addresses the measurement of the sustainable development goals, because a measurement-based risk assessment plays a key role in the successful implementation of sustainable development based economic policy. As a case study for the measurement and localization of the SDGs, we will use the case of Romania, deploying a set of 90 indicators with a data source and method-mix, where Earth Observations and Geographical Information Systems play an important role. The results show that the methodology used in our studies can be applied with good results in the spatial localisation and the measurement of the sustainability indices. The latter register the highest scores, and therefore the lowest associated banking risks – with the exception of a few peri-urban communities – in large and medium sized cities.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69883657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A közgazdaság-tudományi értelemben vett fenntarthatóság lényeges dimenziója a növekedési elmélet. A gazdaság strukturálisan fenntartható teljesítményét, a kibocsátás fenntartható (egyensúlyi) szintjét a potenciális output, illetve annak fenntartható dinamikáját a növekedési potenciál fejezi ki. A potenciális növekedés központi jelentőségű strukturális tényezője az EU-tagállamokban a teljes tényezőtermelékenység (TFP) dinamikája. E területen az egyes tagállamok teljesítményének szintje és dinamikája rendkívül eltérő. Az élvonallal szemben fennálló teljesítményrések – mélyreható strukturális reformok révén történő – mérséklése a növekedési potenciál erősítésének meghatározó tényezője lehet. A tanulmány a jelzett elméleti keretek között elvégzett kvantitatív elemzések alapján tekinti át az európai növekedési potenciál alapvető összefüggéseit. A növekedési potenciál determinánsainak elemzése hozzájárulhat a megkerülhetetlen strukturális reformok és makrogazdasági kiigazítások megalapozásához. Mindezek révén pedig a fenntarthatóság közgazdaság-tudományi elméletének kimunkálásához is.
{"title":"Fenntartható növekedés, növekedési potenciál : A potenciális növekedés irányzatai az Európai Unióban","authors":"Péter Halmai","doi":"10.35551/psz_2023_1_3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/psz_2023_1_3","url":null,"abstract":"A közgazdaság-tudományi értelemben vett fenntarthatóság lényeges dimenziója a növekedési elmélet. A gazdaság strukturálisan fenntartható teljesítményét, a kibocsátás fenntartható (egyensúlyi) szintjét a potenciális output, illetve annak fenntartható dinamikáját a növekedési potenciál fejezi ki. A potenciális növekedés központi jelentőségű strukturális tényezője az EU-tagállamokban a teljes tényezőtermelékenység (TFP) dinamikája. E területen az egyes tagállamok teljesítményének szintje és dinamikája rendkívül eltérő. Az élvonallal szemben fennálló teljesítményrések – mélyreható strukturális reformok révén történő – mérséklése a növekedési potenciál erősítésének meghatározó tényezője lehet. A tanulmány a jelzett elméleti keretek között elvégzett kvantitatív elemzések alapján tekinti át az európai növekedési potenciál alapvető összefüggéseit. A növekedési potenciál determinánsainak elemzése hozzájárulhat a megkerülhetetlen strukturális reformok és makrogazdasági kiigazítások megalapozásához. Mindezek révén pedig a fenntarthatóság közgazdaság-tudományi elméletének kimunkálásához is.","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69887171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Szakirodalmi szemle. Benedek József – Nevelős Gábor (szerk.) Átfogó ökológia. Párbeszéd hit és tudomány között a Laudato si’ enciklika jegyében. Jezsuita Kiadó, Budapest, 2022
{"title":"Hit és tudás legújabb szövetsége teremtett világunk megmentéséért","authors":"Ibolya Török, Egon Nagy","doi":"10.35551/psz_2023_1_7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/psz_2023_1_7","url":null,"abstract":"Szakirodalmi szemle. Benedek József – Nevelős Gábor (szerk.) Átfogó ökológia. Párbeszéd hit és tudomány között a Laudato si’ enciklika jegyében. Jezsuita Kiadó, Budapest, 2022","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69887390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"'Sustainability, in other Words Responsibility for the Future, is Fundamentally a Question of Values.' : Interview with Dr. György Kocziszky, Member of the Monetary Council of the Central Bank of Hungary (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)","authors":"Zsuzsanna Hornyik","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_1_9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_1_9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":42979,"journal":{"name":"Public Finance Quarterly-Hungary","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69883490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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