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A Comparative Study of Explanatory and Predictive Models in Air Cargo Throughput 航空货物吞吐量解释模型与预测模型的比较研究
Pub Date : 2022-08-31 DOI: 10.17825/klr.2022.32.4.47
Lele Zhou, Hyang-sook Lee
Air cargo throughput has played an important role in the contribution of total national commerce volume and regional GDP, by the expansion of the global economy. Previous studies have identified the critical significance of air freight in national or international economic growth. Various models, including linear regression and time-series models, have been applied to analyze and predict the factors influencing air cargo volumes and the trends for future development. However, many models are implemented as a single methodology, but a few studies reviewed and mixed explanatory and predictive models at the same time. Therefore, three mainly used methodologies of MLR (multiple linear regression), PCA (principal component analysis), and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average model) are chosen for this paper to compare and analyze the air cargo throughput of one Asia’s representative airport, Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG). The results of the explanatory model shows that GDP, population, oil consumption, and exchange rate are regarded as the four most important variables influencing PVG air cargo volumes. The outcomes of regressive predictive model presents that MLR-PCA has a better performance than MLR, while in ARIMA predictors, the ARIMA (p:12, d:0, q:0) is shown to have a superior predictive fit than the ARIMA (p:1, d:0, q:0). By comparing different methodologies, this paper contributes to the industry’s study of the variables affecting air cargo and the future improvement of air cargo throughput forecasting capabilities.
随着全球经济的扩张,航空货运吞吐量对国家商业总量和地区GDP的贡献发挥了重要作用。以前的研究已经确定了航空货运在国家或国际经济增长中的重要意义。我们运用各种模型,包括线性回归和时间序列模型,分析和预测影响航空货运量的因素和未来发展趋势。然而,许多模型是作为单一的方法实施的,但少数研究同时审查和混合解释和预测模型。因此,本文选择了多元线性回归(MLR)、主成分分析(PCA)和自回归综合移动平均模型(ARIMA)三种主要的方法对亚洲代表性机场上海浦东机场(PVG)的航空货运吞吐量进行了比较和分析。解释模型的结果表明,GDP、人口、石油消费和汇率是影响PVG航空货运量的四个最重要的变量。回归预测模型的结果表明,MLR- pca的预测效果优于MLR,而在ARIMA预测模型中,ARIMA (p:12, d:0, q:0)的预测拟合效果优于ARIMA (p:1, d:0, q:0)。通过比较不同的方法,本文有助于业界研究影响航空货运的变量,并有助于未来航空货运吞吐量预测能力的提高。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on the Export Characteristics of Open Account Transactions and the Minimization of Credit Risk by Changes in Distribution & Logistics Environment: The Partial Role of Bank's Financial Platform 流通物流环境变化下的账户交易出口特征与信用风险最小化研究——银行金融平台的部分作用
Pub Date : 2022-08-31 DOI: 10.17825/klr.2022.32.4.11
Chang-bong Kim, Dong-jun Lee
In recent decades, export trends have rapidly changed. As building long-term relationships with clients, the preference for payment is changing from documentary credit transactions to remittances. Accordingly, an extensive study on credit risk assessment on Open Account (from now on O/A) from the perspective of exporters is essential to reduce credit risk. The purpose of our study is to analyze the relationship between the characteristics of O/A and credit risk management performance mediated by the level of risk. In addition, the moderated mediating effect of the overseas trading period on the relationship will be analyzed. Our research model and hypothesis were designed through an in-depth interview with a person in charge of practical affairs and previous literature. The target of the survey is shippers who perform general forms of exports through forwarders or shipping companies in Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, and Incheon. In order to secure objectivity of the questionnaire responses, simple random sampling was used with the list of members such as the Korea International Trade Association (KITA), Certified Trading Company, and Korea Certified Customs Attorneys Association. The analysis results are as follows: First, the characteristics of O/A had a positive effect on the level of risk. These results are consistent with the book by Harlaar & de Leeuw (2020). Considering that O/A is a deal on credit, it should be possible to increase the level of risk awareness through pre-negotiations. Second, the level of risk had a positive effect on credit risk management performance. These results are consistent with those of Niepmann & Schmidt-Eisenlohr (2017), Lee Jung-sun, and Huh Eun-sook (2021). In other words, the greater the recognition of risk, the lower the likelihood of credit risk. Third, the characteristics of O/A had a positive effect on credit risk management performance. This finding is consistent with those in the book of Lin (2022). In O/A, the exporter’s withdrawal of payment often depends only on the importer’s credit. Therefore, using appropriate insurance for each transaction can have a significant positive effect on credit risk management performance. Fourth, in the relationship between the characteristics of O/A and the level of risk, the overseas trading period had a significant moderated mediation effect. Our findings show that the longer the overseas transaction period, the lower the level of risk recognition due to accumulated transaction experience. This study is different from the study of Han Woo-jung and Cho Hyuk-soo (2019) in that trade experience and trading period are designed as moderating variables rather than independent variables.
近几十年来,出口趋势发生了迅速变化。随着与客户建立长期关系,付款方式正从跟单信用证交易转向汇款。因此,从出口商的角度对开放账户(从现在开始)的信用风险评估进行广泛的研究对于降低信用风险至关重要。本文的研究目的是分析风险水平介导的信用风险管理绩效与O/A特征之间的关系。此外,还将分析海外交易周期对关系的调节中介作用。我们的研究模型和假设是通过对实际事务负责人的深度访谈和之前的文献来设计的。此次调查的对象是在汉城、京畿、仁川等地通过代理公司或海运公司进行一般形式出口的货主。为了确保问卷调查结果的客观性,以韩国贸易协会、认证贸易公司、韩国海关认证律师协会等会员为对象,进行了简单的随机抽样。分析结果如下:第一,O/A特征对风险水平有正向影响。这些结果与Harlaar & de Leeuw(2020)的书一致。考虑到O/A是一种信用交易,应该可以通过预先谈判来提高风险意识水平。第二,风险水平对信用风险管理绩效有正向影响。这与Niepmann & Schmidt-Eisenlohr(2017)、Lee Jung-sun、Huh Eun-sook(2021)等人的研究结果一致。换句话说,对风险的认识程度越高,信用风险发生的可能性就越低。第三,O/A特征对信用风险管理绩效有正向影响。这一发现与Lin(2022)的书中一致。在O/A中,出口商的提款往往只取决于进口商的信用。因此,为每笔交易使用适当的保险可以对信用风险管理绩效产生显著的积极影响。第四,在O/A特征与风险水平的关系中,海外交易期具有显著的调节中介作用。研究发现,海外交易时间越长,因交易经验积累而产生的风险认知水平越低。与Han Woo-jung和Cho Hyuk-soo(2019)的研究不同,该研究将贸易经验和交易周期设计为调节变量,而不是自变量。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Customer Experience on Customer Engagement and Relationship Continuity Intention: Focusing on Complex Shopping Malls 顾客体验对顾客投入和关系连续性意愿的影响:以综合购物中心为例
Pub Date : 2022-08-31 DOI: 10.17825/klr.2022.32.4.29
Woon-Gon Kim, Hee-young Cho, N. Park
This study was conducted for consumers who use the complex shopping mall. The purpose of this study was to investigate how the customer experience of a complex shopping mall affects customer engagement and relationship continuity intention. As an attribute to measure customer experience, it consists of four factors: educational experience, aesthetic experience, entertainment experience, and escapism experience. A research model was designed. For empirical analysis, a survey was conducted targeting consumers in their 20s to 40s living in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do who had experience of using complex shopping malls. 467 copies of the collected valid samples were used for empirical analysis. For data analysis, Structural Equation Model (SEM) analysis was performed using SPSS 24.0 and AMOS 24.0. The empirical analysis results of this study are as follows. First, it was found that factors such as educational experience, aesthetic experience, entertainment experience, and escapism experience among the customer experiences of the complex shopping mall had a positive effect on the conscious participation of customer engagement. Second, it was found that factors such as aesthetic experience and escapism experience among customer experiences of complex shopping malls had a positive effect on the passion of customer engagement. Third, it was found that all factors of the customer experience of the complex shopping mall had a positive effect on the social interaction of customer engagement. Fourth, it was found that conscious participation, passion, and social interaction factors of customer engagement in complex shopping malls all had a positive effect on relationship continuity intention. Therefore, it can be said that the hypothesis presented in this study has been sufficiently proven.
这项研究是针对使用综合购物中心的消费者进行的。本研究的目的是探讨一个复杂的购物中心的顾客体验如何影响顾客参与和关系连续性意愿。作为衡量顾客体验的一个属性,它由四个因素组成:教育体验、审美体验、娱乐体验和逃避体验。设计了研究模型。为了进行实证分析,以首尔和京畿道的20 ~ 40多岁的消费者为对象进行了调查。选取467份有效样本进行实证分析。数据分析采用SPSS 24.0和AMOS 24.0进行结构方程模型(SEM)分析。本研究的实证分析结果如下:首先,研究发现综合购物中心顾客体验中的教育体验、审美体验、娱乐体验、逃避体验等因素对顾客参与的自觉参与有正向影响。第二,发现综合购物中心顾客体验中的审美体验和逃避体验等因素对顾客参与热情有正向影响。第三,发现综合购物中心顾客体验的所有因素对顾客参与的社会互动都有正向影响。第四,综合购物中心顾客参与的意识参与、热情和社会互动因素均对关系连续性意愿有正向影响。因此,可以说本研究提出的假设已经得到了充分的证明。
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引用次数: 0
Virtual Influencer ‘ROZY’; Is the Attitude Towards ‘her’ Same for Everybody? - Segmentation Approach Based on Virtual Model Attitudes 虚拟网红“ROZY”;每个人对待“她”的态度都一样吗?-基于虚拟模型态度的分割方法
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.17825/klr.2022.32.3.43
Hee‐Jung Lee, Jin-Hee Ma
Influencer marketing has been considered the adaptive strategy in COVID-19 pandemic, largely driven by the widespread use of social media marketing to increase effectively customer base. It is highly resonant and authentic ways to overcome severe time-space constraints of traditional marketing and deliver immediate returns. Influencers-individuals have been becoming vital intermediaries, helping to connect brands with consumers on social media. Especially virtual influencers effectively strengthen cross-functions of social media(aims to generate online leads) and e-commerce(aims to generate clicks). With COVID-19 still raging worldwide, virtual influencers are not subject to any physical restrictions. Furthermore, they are AI generated characters that mimic humans-the features and personalities and controlled entirely by a brand. That is why they remain an important marketing tool. This study aims to develop effective virtual influencer marketing strategy by segmenting consumer markets, which are depending on customers’behavior and attitude toward the virtual influencer, ‘Rozy’. A total of 204 questionaaires were used in this analysis. In the basis on factor analysis of Rozy’s leverage, it can be measured by two factors, namely attractiveness and trustworthiness. Respondents were divided into three groups based on the degree to which Rozy is perceived as attractive or trust. First group is consisted of respondents who evaluate highly Rozy as being a attractive and credible influencer. Second group considers her just as having the quality that attracts people. Last group doesn’t think that Rozy is an alluring and trustworthy influencer. Each group has significantly differences at a degree to the use of social media and continuous usage intention of social media
网红营销被认为是2019冠状病毒病大流行中的适应性策略,主要是由于社交媒体营销的广泛使用,以有效增加客户群。这是一种高度共鸣和真实的方式,克服了传统营销的严重时空限制,并提供即时回报。有影响力的个人已经成为重要的中介,帮助品牌与社交媒体上的消费者建立联系。特别是虚拟网红有效地强化了社交媒体(旨在产生在线线索)和电子商务(旨在产生点击)的交叉功能。随着COVID-19在全球范围内肆虐,虚拟影响者不受任何物理限制。此外,它们是人工智能生成的角色,模仿人类的特征和个性,完全由品牌控制。这就是为什么它们仍然是一个重要的营销工具。本研究旨在根据消费者对虚拟网红“Rozy”的行为和态度,对消费者市场进行细分,从而制定有效的虚拟网红营销策略。本次分析共使用了204份问卷。在对Rozy的杠杆进行因子分析的基础上,可以用吸引力和可信度两个因素来衡量。根据罗西的吸引力和信任度,受访者被分为三组。第一组受访者高度评价Rozy是一个有吸引力和可信的影响者。第二种人认为她具有吸引人的品质。最后一组人不认为Rozy是一个有吸引力和值得信赖的影响者。各群体对social media的使用情况和持续使用social media的意愿存在一定程度的显著差异
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引用次数: 0
A Study on Ways to Diversify the Use of Industrial Complexes for the Logistics Demand of Collection-Delivery in the Southeast of Korea: For A Industrial Complex in Busan 韩国东南地区集运物流需求的产业园区多元化利用途径研究——以釜山某产业园区为例
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.17825/klr.2022.32.3.89
Jin-Hee Park
Due to the recently changed environment, the demand for logistics is increasing, and in particular, the proportion of life logistics services is increasing. Logistics facilities with various functions are needed to support these demands and services. However, since there is a limit to the expansion of logistics facilities, it is necessary to change the thinking to diversify the use of existing or new facilities by breaking away from the rigid supply mind. Based on this necessity, the researcher presented ideas to diversify the use of industrial complex. For this purpose, I estimated the demand for collection-delivery logistics for the Southeast of Korea, which can be said that the sphere of influence of direct demand, for A industrial complex in Busan, which has good accessibility. In addition, in order to understand the actual demand for A industrial complex, a survey was conducted on the intention to move in related companies. Based on the results, the types and sizes of the industries desired to move in compared to the demand were presented. demand for the Southeast of Korea, which is expanding into the Megacity, is expected to increase continuously. And in a situation where there is a limit to expansion of logistics facilities. So the results of this study can be used as basic data for policy establishment that can embrace new demand for existing or new related facilities. In particular, it can be said that it has contributed to the diversification of industries that can support life logistics services.
由于近年来环境的变化,对物流的需求越来越大,特别是生活物流服务的比重越来越大。需要具有各种功能的物流设施来支持这些需求和服务。但是,物流设施的扩大是有限度的,因此,有必要摆脱僵硬的供应思维,改变思路,使现有设施或新设施的用途多样化。基于这一必要性,研究者提出了工业综合体多样化利用的思路。为此,我以交通便利的釜山A工业园区为对象,对可以说是直接需求的影响范围的韩国东南部地区的集运物流需求进行了估算。另外,为了了解对A产业园区的实际需求,对相关企业进行了迁入意向调查。在此基础上,提出了与需求相比,希望迁入的产业类型和规模。预计,正在向超大型城市扩张的东南地区的需求将持续增加。在物流设施扩张受到限制的情况下。因此,本研究的结果可以作为政策制定的基础数据,以适应现有或新的相关设施的新需求。特别是,可以说,它促进了可以支持生活物流服务的产业多样化。
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引用次数: 0
A Semantic Network Analysis of T-commerce Industry: Focused on Media Data 电子商务行业语义网络分析:以媒体数据为中心
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.17825/klr.2022.32.3.29
Mungyo Oh, Young-Min Kim, Namgoong Yoon
Despite the rapid increase in big data information due to the quantitative growth of the T-commerce industry and the diversity of channels, this study extracted morpheme-based keywords from big data analysis on T-commerce-related articles in the past 21 years. As a result of the study, T-commerce’s growth process could be largely divided into three stages: preparation, introduction, and growth. It was confirmed that it was divided into three clusters in the preparation period: ‘information provision’, ‘diversity’, and ‘business propulsion’, three clusters in the introduction period: ‘activity’, ‘convenience’, and ‘reliability’, and four clusters in the growth period: ‘usefulness’, ‘convenience’, ‘economy’, and ‘reliability’. In practice, it suggests that marketing capabilities should be focused on improving the usefulness and convenience of high word concentration among the four clusters of usefulness, convenience, economy, and reliability formed in CONCOR analysis.
尽管由于电商行业的数量增长和渠道的多样性,大数据信息迅速增加,但本研究从过去21年的电商相关文章的大数据分析中提取基于语素的关键词。研究结果表明,电子商务的成长过程大致可以分为三个阶段:准备阶段、引入阶段和成长阶段。经确认,在准备阶段分为“信息提供”、“多样性”、“业务推进”3个集群,在引进阶段分为“活动性”、“便利性”、“可靠性”3个集群,在成长期分为“实用性”、“便利性”、“经济性”、“可靠性”4个集群。在实践中,建议在CONCOR分析形成的有用性、便利性、经济性和可靠性四个集群中,营销能力应侧重于提高高词集中的有用性和便利性。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Factors Caused by Changes in the Weather of Food waste in Seoul and Efficient Disposal Direction 首尔市食物垃圾天气变化影响因素分析及有效处理方向
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.17825/klr.2022.32.3.105
B. Kim, Gwan-Soon Han
As life in Seoul is diverse, environmental problem is caused in various ways. Food waste is generated at each stage of the food production, distribution, and consumption system. In this research, we analyze the factors(temperature, humidity, precipitation, etc.) of food waste caused by climate change. The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors of increase or decrease in the amount of food waste led to the change of weather, to predict the amount of future generation, and then to examine collection, transportation and treatment directions of food waste in Seoul as climate change. In terms of logistics, this study contributed to the establishment of a circular economy society by suggesting a more efficient collection and transport of food waste and a rational treatment direction than previous studies on food waste treatment facilities, treatment methods, or policies. In order to realize the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), waste must be reduced by more than half by 2030. I hope this study would be utilized so as to meet the needs of this era.
由于首尔的生活是多样化的,环境问题的产生方式也是多种多样的。食物浪费在食物生产、分配和消费系统的每个阶段都会产生。在本研究中,我们分析了气候变化导致食物浪费的因素(温度、湿度、降水等)。本研究的目的是分析天气变化导致食物垃圾数量增加或减少的因素,预测未来产生的食物垃圾数量,进而研究气候变化下首尔市食物垃圾的收集、运输和处理方向。在物流方面,本研究提出了比以往在食物垃圾处理设施、处理方法或政策方面的研究更有效的食物垃圾收集和运输以及合理的处理方向,为建立循环经济社会做出了贡献。为了实现可持续发展目标(sdg),到2030年必须将废物减少一半以上。我希望这项研究能够被利用,以适应这个时代的需要。
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引用次数: 0
Recognition of Logistics Safety Labels Using Convolutional Neural Network and Machine Learning 基于卷积神经网络和机器学习的物流安全标签识别
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.17825/klr.2022.32.3.67
Cho Kim, Sang-Chan Park
The development speed of the loading and unloading automation is accelerating due to such initiators as the prevailing 4th industrial revolution technologies, the expansion of e-commerce, and the increase in logistics volumes inevitably by the advent of the corona era. The logistic-object classification evolves along with the computer vision as a core technology for the automatic loading and unloading. As a practical example, ‘Empticon Ⅱ’ of the ‘Roblog’ project identifies the location of the coffee bean sack to be transported. The 3D camera is used for photographing the sack and analyzing it through the computer vision technology. Tremendous amounts of data training efforts were required in advance to make the object detection function better. This method, however, has a disadvantage in that it is difficult to learn and utilize all the objects of various sizes and textures in advance because the object detection performance is proportional to the amount of objects learned in advance. Most of the objects handled are boxes. To prevent damage from using the unloading robot, logistics safety labels are attached to the box. This study aims to make a model that can control automatic loading and unloading robots by recognizing and classifying logistics safety labels attached to boxes of various sizes. To train the machine learning model, the most common logistics safety labels attached to the box or printed need to be obtained as training examples. Unfortunately, there was no such dataset being distributed as an open source, so the authors built a dataset by themselves. A classifier using the ensemble model was created. In order to increase the efficiency of the classifier, the characteristics of the logistics safety labels were extracted through a convolutional network and used as training and test data. As a result, we observed the performance of the ensemble classifier having Precision 0.9675, Recall 0.9575, and F1-score 0.9625. In addition, in order to solve the problem of performance degradation of the classifier depending on the background in which the box is photographed, a pipeline was designed to detect only the box without background and caution signs.
由于第四次工业革命技术的普及、电子商务的扩大、新冠时代不可避免的物流量的增加等因素,装卸自动化的发展速度正在加快。物流对象分类是随着计算机视觉作为自动装卸的核心技术而发展起来的。作为一个实际的例子,“Roblog”项目的“EmpticonⅡ”确定了要运输的咖啡豆袋的位置。利用三维摄像机对麻袋进行拍摄,并通过计算机视觉技术对其进行分析。为了使目标检测功能更好,需要事先进行大量的数据训练。然而,这种方法的缺点是,由于物体检测性能与预先学习到的物体数量成正比,因此很难预先学习和利用所有大小和纹理的物体。处理的大多数物品都是箱子。为了防止使用卸货机器人造成损坏,箱子上贴上了物流安全标签。本研究的目的是制作一个模型,通过识别和分类不同尺寸的箱子上的物流安全标签,来控制自动装卸机器人。为了训练机器学习模型,需要获得贴在箱子上或打印的最常见的物流安全标签作为训练样本。不幸的是,没有这样的数据集作为开源分发,所以作者自己构建了一个数据集。使用集成模型创建了一个分类器。为了提高分类器的效率,通过卷积网络提取物流安全标签的特征,并将其作为训练和测试数据。结果,我们观察到集成分类器的性能为Precision 0.9675, Recall 0.9575, F1-score 0.9625。此外,为了解决分类器性能随箱体拍摄背景的变化而下降的问题,设计了一个流水线,只检测没有背景和警示标志的箱体。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on the Utilization of Existing Innovation Information to the Improvement of Korea’s National Innovation System (NIS) 利用现有创新信息完善韩国国家创新体系研究
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.17825/klr.2022.32.3.57
C. Park
The main aim of the study is to show how existing innovation studies have helped in the widespread of information needed to give better improvement for Korea’s national innovation system (NIS). Korea was selected as the study’s backdrop since it is very successful nations in building a NIS. We chose various papers published in two major innovation journals (the Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society (J-KOTIS) and the Journal of Technology Innovation (JTI)) in Korea and assessed the essential subjects of these articles from the viewpoint of NIS research using a systematic review technique. Overall, We discovered that this study aided in the establishment of a knowledge foundation required for the growth of the NIS in Korea. The finding showed that the focus of the research worked from designing the NIS to implementing it for a long time. The industrial areas that sectoral innovation systems (SIS) were given attention to changing with Korea’s economic progress all the time as a subsystem of the NIS. This research adds to the sector of innovation studies by providing a complete picture of findings from NIS studies in Korea’s innovation literature, as well as a theoretical framework for organizing it. The NIS has been regarded as a useful instrument for comparing and measuring creative performance and economic outcomes, and this work adds to our understanding of it.
这项研究的主要目的是展示现有的创新研究如何帮助传播必要的信息,以更好地改进韩国的国家创新系统(NIS)。之所以选择韩国作为研究对象,是因为韩国是建设国家情报系统非常成功的国家。我们选择了发表在韩国两大创新期刊(Journal of Korea Technology innovation Society (J-KOTIS)和Journal of Technology innovation (JTI))上的各种论文,并使用系统回顾技术从NIS研究的角度评估了这些文章的基本主题。总的来说,我们发现这项研究有助于建立国家情报院在韩国发展所需的知识基础。研究结果表明,从NIS的设计到实施,研究的重点在很长一段时间内发挥了作用。作为国家情报院的一个分系统,一直关注的产业领域随着韩国经济的发展而变化。本研究通过提供韩国创新文献中NIS研究结果的完整图景,以及组织创新研究的理论框架,增加了创新研究领域。NIS一直被认为是比较和衡量创造性表现和经济成果的有用工具,这项工作增加了我们对它的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Empirical Study on Ship Investment Behavior Analysis of Liner Shipping Companies 班轮航运公司船舶投资行为分析实证研究
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.17825/klr.2022.32.3.1
Tae-Il Kim, Sung‐Hwa Park
This study analyzed the ship investment behavior of Korean liners before the bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping in 2017 by dividing them into investment in new ships and charter ships. In the case of newbuilding investment, the ship investment behavior of global liners was measured in the boom period of 2003-2008 (6 years), the recession period of 2009-2014 (6 years), the recent 2015-2016 (2 years), the low newbuilding priced period, and the high newbuilding priced period. 2006-2007 (2 years) were analyzed. In the case of charter investment, the charter investment behavior of global liner companies for 10 years from 2007 to 2016 was analyzed and compared with major global shipping companies. As a result of the analysis, it was evaluated that Hanjin Shipping and Hyundai Merchant Marine (currently HMM) showed lower performance compared to global liner companies in terms of investment in new shipbuilding and charter ships, as they placed orders during the period of high ship prices and high charter rates, and the proportion of long-term chartered ships was high. This investment behavior affected Hanjin Shipping’s bankruptcy, and it is estimated that it acted as a financial burden on Hyundai Merchant Marine. It is expected that this study will provide useful information in terms of timing and strategy for ship investment by shipping companies in the future, and it is expected that it will have a great potential for use in establishing government policies.
本研究将韩进海运2017年破产前国内班轮公司的船舶投资行为分为新船投资和租船投资两部分进行了分析。以新造船投资为例,研究了2003-2008年繁荣期(6年)、2009-2014年衰退期(6年)、2015-2016年近期(2年)、新造船低价期和新造船高价期全球班轮的船舶投资行为。分析2006-2007年(2年)。以租船投资为例,分析了2007年至2016年10年间全球班轮公司的租船投资行为,并与全球主要航运公司进行了比较。分析结果显示,韩进海运和现代商船(现现代商船)在船舶价格高、租赁费高的时期订购船舶,而且长期租赁船的比重较高,因此,在新造船和租赁船舶投资方面,与全球班轮公司相比表现较差。这种投资行为不仅对韩进海运的破产产生了影响,而且对现代商船造成了财政负担。预计这项研究将为航运公司今后投资船舶的时机和战略提供有用的信息,并有望在制定政府政策方面发挥巨大的潜力。
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Korean Logistics Research Association
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