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Current and Future Demographics of the Veteran Population, 2014–2024 2014-2024年美国退伍军人人口的现状与未来
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2018-04-20 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2018.0002
Ernesto F. L. Amaral, M. Pollard, J. Mendelsohn, M. Cefalu
Abstract:We project the population of United States veterans between 2014 and 2024 using a cohort component population projection method that provides estimates by age, sex, race/ethnicity, service era and geographic location. We also analyzedistance of the projected veteran population to medical and health centers. Our research strategy integrates several methodological procedures, which can be applied to other subgroups of the American population in order to estimate future demographic trends at the local level. Baseline data for national projections came from the 2000 Census, which was the last census to collect information about veterans. We factored in estimates of mortality, adjusted for demographic characteristics, and added data from the U.S. Department of Defense on veterans entering the population after 2000. We estimated migration flows of veterans within the country using gravity models. Supplementary data came from American Community Surveys and accounted for a variety of factors, including age, sex, race/ethnicity, service era, population size of sending and receiving areas, and distance between areas. We project that the population of U.S. veterans will decrease by 19 percent over the next 10 years: from 21.6 million in 2014 to 17.5 million in 2024. The population will have a slightly higher proportion of older veterans. There will be modest changes in the demographic mix by sex and race/ethnicity. Between 2014 and 2024, the proportion of female veterans will increase 3 percentage points, from 8 to 11 percent. The share of non-Hispanic white males will decrease from 80 to 76 percent over the same period. The service era composition will change in the period. Veterans from the Vietnam conflict will decrease from 31 to 29 percent, while those from the Gulf War and Post-9/11 conflict will increase from 27 to 42 percent between 2014 and 2024. We estimate that, geographically, the veteran population will become more concentrated in urban areas, and the relative proportion of their population in the Ohio River Valley region will diminish.
摘要:本文采用队列人口预测方法,根据年龄、性别、种族/民族、服役时间和地理位置对2014年至2024年美国退伍军人人口进行预测。我们还分析了预计的退伍军人人口到医疗保健中心的距离。我们的研究策略整合了几种方法程序,这些方法程序可以应用于美国人口的其他子群体,以便在地方一级估计未来的人口趋势。国家预测的基线数据来自2000年的人口普查,这是最后一次收集退伍军人信息的人口普查。我们考虑了死亡率的估计,根据人口特征进行了调整,并添加了美国国防部关于2000年后进入人口的退伍军人的数据。我们使用重力模型估计了该国退伍军人的移民流量。补充数据来自美国社区调查,并考虑了各种因素,包括年龄、性别、种族/民族、服务时代、发送和接收地区的人口规模以及地区之间的距离。我们预计,美国退伍军人人数将在未来10年减少19%:从2014年的2160万人减少到2024年的1750万人。老年退伍军人的比例将略高。按性别和种族/民族划分的人口结构将有适度的变化。从2014年到2024年,女性退伍军人的比例将增加3个百分点,从8%增加到11%。同期,非西班牙裔白人男性的比例将从80%降至76%。服务时代的构成将在此期间发生变化。从2014年到2024年,参加过越南战争的退伍军人将从31%减少到29%,而参加过海湾战争和911后冲突的退伍军人将从27%增加到42%。我们估计,从地理上看,退伍军人人口将更加集中在城市地区,而他们在俄亥俄河谷地区的人口比例将会减少。
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引用次数: 16
The End of the Rejuvenation of the Fertility Schedule in Brazil: Evidence from Changes in Contraception Use and Reproductive Preferences among Adolescents and Young Women 巴西生育计划恢复的结束:来自青少年和年轻妇女避孕使用和生殖偏好变化的证据
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2018-02-24 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2018.0001
Ana Paula Verona
Abstract:For the first time since the beginning of Brazil’s fertility decline, its schedule has stopped rejuvenating. A key factor for this phenomenon is the sharp decrease of fertility among teenagers in the first decade of the 21st century. This paper examines recent changes in two determinants of reproductive behavior of adolescents and young women in Brazil: the use of contraceptives and the ideal number of children. Using data from the 1996 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the 2006 Pesquisa Nacional de Demografia e Saúde (PNDS), changes in the use of contraceptives and reproductive preferences according to age groups and cohorts are examined. The results show a great increase in the use of contraception among adolescents and young women and indicate an increase in preference for low parity and a decrease in the average ideal number of children across cohorts. The early fertility schedule in Brazil in addition with lower expectations regarding future fertility strongly suggest that there is a lot of room for further decline of fertility in the country. The study emphasizes recent and not yet investigated changes in adolescents and young women' reproductive behavior in Brazil and sheds light on the likely continuation of changes in the Brazilian fertility schedule and level.
摘要:自巴西生育率开始下降以来,其生育计划首次停止恢复。造成这一现象的一个关键因素是21世纪头十年青少年生育率的急剧下降。本文考察了巴西青少年和年轻妇女生殖行为的两个决定因素的最新变化:避孕药具的使用和理想的子女数量。利用1996年人口与健康调查(DHS)和2006年全国人口调查(PNDS)的数据,检查了不同年龄组和年龄组的避孕药具使用情况和生育偏好的变化。结果显示,在青少年和年轻妇女中使用避孕措施的人数大大增加,并表明对低胎次的偏好有所增加,而在所有队列中,平均理想子女数有所减少。巴西的早期生育计划以及对未来生育率的较低预期强烈表明,该国的生育率还有很大的进一步下降空间。该研究强调了巴西青少年和年轻妇女生殖行为的最新变化和尚未调查的变化,并阐明了巴西生育计划和水平可能继续发生的变化。
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引用次数: 4
Commitment Timing in Same-Sex and Different-Sex Relationships 同性和异性关系中的承诺时机
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2017-12-27 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2018.0000
T. Orth, Michael J. Rosenfeld
Abstract: Using the representative and longitudinal dataset How Couples Meet and Stay Together (HCMST), we analyze the relative timing of relationship formation and cohabitation entry among same-sex and different-sex couples. In doing so, we consider the extent to which gender and sexuality affect private negotiations regarding the progression of intimate relationships. We find that rates of romantic relationship initiation are highest for male same-sex couples relative to female same-sex couples and different-sex couples. Contrary to popular conceptions of lesbians as eager to commit, our results indicate that after controlling for couple age there are no significant differences in relative rates of cohabitation among couple types.
摘要/ Abstract摘要:利用代表性和纵向数据集“夫妻如何相遇和保持在一起”(HCMST),分析了同性和异性伴侣关系形成和同居进入的相对时间。在此过程中,我们考虑了性别和性行为对亲密关系进展的私人谈判的影响程度。我们发现,相对于女性同性伴侣和异性伴侣,男性同性伴侣的恋爱关系开始率最高。与女同性恋渴望承诺的流行观念相反,我们的研究结果表明,在控制夫妻年龄后,不同类型的夫妻同居的相对比率没有显著差异。
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引用次数: 5
Same-Sex Sexuality and the Duration of First Different-Sex Marriages 同性性行为和第一次异性婚姻的持续时间
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2017-11-22 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2017.0010
Aaron Hoy, A. London
Recent research has focused on the once-married and associations between various aspects of same-sex sexuality (i.e., desire/attraction, behavior and identity) and divorce from a different-sex spouse. In this paper, we theorize that same-sex sexuality could be associated with either shorter or longer marital duration, and we use data from the 2011–2013 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) to examine the associations between three aspects of same-sex sexuality and marital duration among those who married and divorced once (N=617). Among the once-married/divorced, same-sex sexuality substantially reduces marital duration by approximately 18–24 months, on average, net of other variables. Supplemental analyses indicate that these associations do not differ by sex/gender but do differ in nuanced ways for individuals who are bisexually attracted (identified) compared to those who report, respectively, same-sex only or different-sex only attraction (heterosexual, bisexual and lesbian/gay identity). Between-group differences in age at marriage exert a substantial influence on the associations between same-sex sexuality and marital duration documented in the supplemental analyses of bisexuality. We discuss our findings in relation to the extant literature, the limitations of available data, and directions for future research.
最近的研究集中在已婚和同性性行为的各个方面(即欲望/吸引力,行为和身份)与与异性配偶离婚之间的联系上。在本文中,我们推测同性性行为可能与更短或更长的婚姻持续时间有关,并使用2011-2013年全国家庭成长调查(NSFG)的数据来检验同性性行为的三个方面与婚姻持续时间之间的关系(N=617)。在结过婚/离过婚的人中,同性性行为大大缩短了婚姻持续时间,平均约为18-24个月,扣除其他变量。补充分析表明,这些关联并不因性/性别而不同,但对于双性恋吸引(被认同)的个体而言,与那些分别报告只有同性或只有异性吸引(异性恋、双性恋和女同性恋/男同性恋身份)的个体而言,确实存在细微的差异。在对双性恋的补充分析中,群体间结婚年龄的差异对同性性行为和婚姻持续时间之间的关联产生了实质性影响。我们讨论了我们的发现与现有文献的关系,现有数据的局限性,以及未来研究的方向。
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引用次数: 2
Dynamic Analysis of the Long-term Relationships between Mortality and Marital Fertility in the Developed World 发达国家死亡率与婚姻生育率长期关系的动态分析
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2017-10-19 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2017.0009
J. Sánchez-Barricarte, Luis F. García-Espinal
According to the traditional theory of the demographic transition, the drop in mortality was the main mechanism which accounted for the subsequent decline in fertility. This basic idea was questioned by the results of the well-known Princeton European Fertility Project, but even now there is relatively little empirical research providing solid evidence that can shed light on the determinants of fertility in modern times. We examine the long-term relationship between marital fertility, mortality and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) using panel cointegration techniques for a group of 15 developed countries from the 19th century until the present day. The statistical models used show that mortality plays a major role in fertility reductions.
根据传统的人口过渡理论,死亡率的下降是后来生育率下降的主要原因。这一基本观点受到了著名的普林斯顿欧洲生育计划(Princeton European Fertility Project)结果的质疑,但即使是现在,也很少有实证研究能提供确凿的证据,来阐明现代生育率的决定因素。我们使用面板协整技术对15个发达国家从19世纪至今的婚姻生育率、死亡率和人均国内生产总值(GDPpc)之间的长期关系进行了研究。所使用的统计模型表明,死亡率在降低生育率方面起着主要作用。
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引用次数: 1
Net Assets Available at Age of Death in Australia: An Extension of the National Transfer Accounts Methodology 澳大利亚死亡时可用净资产:国家转移账户方法的扩展
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2017-10-08 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2017.0008
Jeromey B. Temple, P. McDonald, James M Rice
Abstract: Population ageing through much of the developed world presents the opportunity for a massive transfer of wealth across generations. One important and understudied intergenerational transfer in Australia occurs at or near death through inheritance or inter vivo transfers. In Australia, the number of deaths is projected to increase 13% in 10 years and 95% by mid-century. With this significant change on the horizon, little academic interest has focused on the value of assets at age of death in Australia. In this report, we utilise the National Transfer Account (NTA) methodology to examine the per capita and aggregate (i.e., economy wide) value of net assets available at age of death in Australia for the years 2003–04 and 2009–10. We take a substantial step in the development of a wealth transfer account within the National Transfer Account methodology by providing a procedure to estimate economy wide levels of assets and liabilities. We show that the assets available at age of death in Australia are very significant: between 60 and 70 billion Australian dollars in 2003–04 and 2009–10. The majority of the asset value was tied up in property, with about three quarters of total average assets held in property by those dying at ages 65 and over. Using simulations, we also illustrate, that relative to the past, assets are now transferred much later in life because of the extended delay of death. We conclude with a discussion about government policies that target elder abuse, and policies that constrain desired familial transfers.
摘要:许多发达国家的人口老龄化为财富的大规模代际转移提供了机会。在澳大利亚,一种重要的代际转移发生在死亡时或临近死亡时,通过遗传或体内转移。在澳大利亚,预计死亡人数在10年内将增加13%,到本世纪中叶将增加95%。随着这一重大变化的到来,很少有学术兴趣关注澳大利亚死亡时资产的价值。在本报告中,我们使用国家转移账户(NTA)方法来检查2003-04年和2009-10年澳大利亚死亡年龄时可用净资产的人均和总(即整个经济)价值。我们通过提供一种估计整个经济体的资产和负债水平的程序,在国民转移账户方法范围内发展财富转移账户方面迈出了实质性的一步。我们表明,澳大利亚在死亡时可获得的资产非常可观:2003-04年度和2009-10年度在600亿至700亿澳元之间。大部分资产价值都与房地产挂钩,65岁及以上的人平均持有的总资产中,约有四分之三是房地产。我们还通过模拟说明,与过去相比,由于死亡延迟的延长,现在的资产转移要晚得多。最后,我们讨论了针对虐待老人的政府政策,以及限制家庭转移的政策。
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引用次数: 7
Are the Parents Alright?: Time in Self-Care in Same-Sex and Different-Sex Two-Parent Families with Children 父母还好吗?:有子女的同性与异性双亲家庭的自我照顾时间
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2017-10-07 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2017.0007
J. Augustine, J. Aveldanes, Carla A. Pfeffer
Research on the well-being of children in same-sex families has proliferated over the past decade. Nevertheless, almost no research has focused on the impact that parenthood has on gay and lesbian parents who are raising children. This study aims to provide greater knowledge on the well-being of parents in same-sex families while also stimulating greater research efforts devoted to this important issue. As part of these efforts, we investigate the question of whether the time loss associated with caring for children has a greater impact on the amount of time gay and lesbian parents spend in self-care activities (e.g., sleep, socializing) that are linked to well-being than it does for parents in heterosexual relationships. Using data from the American Time Use Surveys (2003–2015) and a nationally representative sample, we find preliminary evidence that gay fathers suffer greater losses in time in self-care than fathers in heterosexual families, but lesbian mothers suffer fewer losses in self-care than mothers in heterosexual families.
在过去的十年里,关于同性家庭中孩子幸福的研究激增。然而,几乎没有研究关注为人父母对抚养孩子的男女同性恋父母的影响。这项研究旨在提供更多关于同性家庭中父母幸福的知识,同时也刺激更多的研究努力致力于这一重要问题。作为这些努力的一部分,我们调查了这样一个问题:与照顾孩子相关的时间损失是否对男女同性恋父母花在与幸福相关的自我照顾活动(如睡眠、社交)上的时间有更大的影响,而不是对异性恋父母的影响。利用美国时间使用调查(2003-2015)的数据和一个具有全国代表性的样本,我们发现了初步证据,表明同性恋父亲在自我照顾方面比异性恋家庭的父亲损失更多,但女同性恋母亲在自我照顾方面的损失比异性恋家庭的母亲少。
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引用次数: 9
The Trend of Period Fertility in Greece and Its Changes During the Current Economic Recession 希腊时期生育率趋势及其在当前经济衰退中的变化
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2017-08-17 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2017.0006
B. Kotzamanis, Pavlos Baltas, A. Kostaki
Most research on the relationship between economic conditions and fertility has shown that fertility has a procyclical relationship with economic growth. We examine this relationship by investigating the implications of the current economic crisis on fertility in Greece. Given the brief time period since the start of the economic crisis in Greece (a potential methodological limitation), we examine the evolution of fertility from 1960 to 2015, using empirical data provided by the Hellenic Statistical Authority and paying special attention to changes during the crisis years. Using these data, age-specific fertility rates by order of birth, total annual fertility rate, and mean age of mothers at childbearing differentiated by birth order are calculated. Our analysis shows that in the 2000s TFR increased as a result of the recuperation of births that were postponed during the late 1980s and the 1990s, and then TFR decreased, especially for first and second order TFR. We attribute the recent fall of TFR to the simultaneous fall of fertility rates of women younger than 30 years. It appears, therefore, that the crisis interrupted the recuperation of births that began in the early 2000s and halted fertility increases among younger ages. Recent changes in fertility are indicative of an accelerated decline of the complete fertility of women born after 1980, mainly because the recession was initiated during a time when the mean age of childbearing was very high (30 years for the first child). These facts do not allow for optimism concerning the reversal of fertility rates of younger generations who are probably going to spend a significant part of their reproductive life under crisis conditions.
大多数关于经济条件与生育率关系的研究表明,生育率与经济增长具有顺周期关系。我们通过调查当前经济危机对希腊生育率的影响来研究这种关系。鉴于希腊经济危机开始以来的短暂时间(一个潜在的方法限制),我们使用希腊统计局提供的经验数据研究了1960年至2015年生育率的演变,并特别关注危机期间的变化。利用这些数据,计算出按出生顺序排列的特定年龄生育率、总年生育率和按出生顺序区分的母亲平均生育年龄。我们的分析表明,在2000年代,由于20世纪80年代末和90年代推迟生育的恢复,TFR增加,然后TFR下降,特别是一阶和二阶TFR。我们把最近总生育率的下降归因于30岁以下妇女生育率的同时下降。因此,危机似乎中断了从21世纪初开始的生育恢复,并停止了年轻人的生育率增长。最近生育率的变化表明,1980年以后出生的妇女的完全生育率在加速下降,这主要是因为经济衰退是在平均生育年龄非常高的时期开始的(第一个孩子的平均生育年龄为30岁)。这些事实使我们不能对年轻一代生育率的逆转持乐观态度,因为他们很可能将在危机条件下度过其生育寿命的很大一部分。
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引用次数: 32
The Residential Segregation of Same-Sex Households from Different-Sex Households in Metropolitan USA, circa-2010 2010年前后美国大都市同性家庭与异性家庭的居住隔离
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2017-07-04 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2017.0005
D. Poston, D'lane Compton, Qian Xiong, Emily A. Knox
Residential segregation is a major area of research in demography. Most prior investigations have focused on the segregation of racial/ethnic minorities from the majority white group in cities and metropolitan areas of the United States and several other countries. Few analyses have dealt with the spatial segregation of sexual minorities from the majority. In this paper, we analyze the residential segregation of gay male and lesbian households from heterosexual married and heterosexual cohabiting households. We use two dissimilarity measures of residential segregation and draw on data from the American Community Surveys for 2008 through 2012 to compute segregation scores for the 100 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with the largest gay male and lesbian populations around the year 2010. We show that there is a sizable amount of homosexual-heterosexual residential segregation and that it appears to be a different phenomenon from racial and ethnic residential segregation. We also show that gay male households are more segregated from different-sex partnered households than are lesbian households, and that levels of segregation vary positively across the MSAs with the size of the gay male and lesbian populations.
居住隔离是人口学研究的一个重要领域。大多数先前的调查都集中在美国和其他几个国家的城市和大都市区将少数种族/族裔与多数白人群体隔离开来的问题。很少有分析涉及性少数群体与多数群体的空间隔离。本文分析了异性恋已婚家庭和异性恋同居家庭中男女同性恋家庭的居住隔离。我们采用两种不同的居住隔离测量方法,并利用2008年至2012年美国社区调查(American Community Surveys)的数据,计算出2010年前后男女同性恋人口最多的100个大都市统计区(MSAs)的隔离分数。我们表明,有相当数量的同性恋和异性恋居住隔离,这似乎是一种不同于种族和民族居住隔离的现象。我们还发现,与女同性恋家庭相比,男同性恋家庭与异性伴侣家庭的隔离程度更高,而且在各个msa中,隔离程度随着男同性恋和女同性恋人口的规模而呈正相关。
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引用次数: 14
Intergenerational Transmission of Educational Disadvantage in the Context of the Decline of Family Size in Urban Africa 非洲城市家庭规模下降背景下教育劣势的代际传递
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2017-06-21 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2017.0004
James Lachaud, T. Legrand, Jean-François Kobiané
This paper investigates the potential consequences of falling fertility on the reproduction of social inequalities over time. We develop a framework to understand how the fertility decline should interfere on the intergenerational transmission of disadvantages and apply it in the context of Ouagadougou, the capital city of Burkina Faso. We use data from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) of Ouagadougou, which collected retrospective data over three generations (grandmothers, mothers and children). We then use structural equation modeling (SEM) to estimate the models, and finally we conduct a sensitivity analysis to assess the consistency of our results. The results confirm that family size decline has a significant leverage on the intergenerational transmission of educational disadvantages. First, family size of mothers is significantly patterned by their grandmother’s characteristics, particularly education and socioeconomic status (SES). Second, mothers with reduced family size appear to invest more in the education of their children, which should enable them to maintain their educational advantages across generations with respect to poorer and non-educated families. These results remain robust after testing alternative assumptions about SES of grandmothers. Moreover, the findings also confirm that the relationship between educational investment and family size is changing over the course of socioeconomic development. While for recent generations (mothers and children) this relationship is strongly negative, for older generations (grandmothers and mothers) it is weak, albeit positive and statistically significant. This suggests that the meaning of the quantity of children and their participation in the labor force is shifting across generations in Ouagadougou, as in most urban areas in Africa.
随着时间的推移,本文研究了生育率下降对社会不平等再生产的潜在后果。我们制定了一个框架,以了解生育率下降如何影响不利条件的代际传递,并将其应用于布基纳法索首都瓦加杜古。我们使用瓦加杜古健康和人口监测系统(HDSS)的数据,该系统收集了三代人(祖母、母亲和儿童)的回顾性数据。然后我们使用结构方程模型(SEM)来估计模型,最后我们进行敏感性分析来评估我们的结果的一致性。研究结果证实,家庭规模的下降对教育劣势的代际传递具有显著的影响。首先,母亲的家庭规模在很大程度上取决于其祖母的特征,尤其是教育和社会经济地位(SES)。其次,家庭规模较小的母亲似乎在子女的教育上投入更多,这应该使她们能够在几代人中保持相对于较贫穷和未受过教育的家庭的教育优势。在测试了关于祖母的社会经济地位的其他假设之后,这些结果仍然是强有力的。此外,研究结果还证实了教育投资与家庭规模之间的关系随着社会经济发展而发生变化。虽然对最近几代人(母亲和孩子)来说,这种关系是强烈的负相关,但对老一辈人(祖母和母亲)来说,这种关系很弱,尽管是正相关的,并且具有统计学意义。这表明,在瓦加杜古,与非洲大多数城市地区一样,儿童数量及其参与劳动力的意义正在发生代际变化。
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引用次数: 3
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Population Review
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