The purpose of this article is to assess the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) updated military expenditure data for Greece and Turkey. Testing for data reliability involves two stages. First, for 1949–2014, the time pattern of Turkish military expenditure is explored by comparing national military budget data with the updated SIPRI data. Second, the new data for 1980–2001 are used to replicate an earlier study on possible action-reaction military spending behavior between Greece and Turkey. The findings still hold when the analysis is based on SIPRI’s updated data.
{"title":"Some exercises with SIPRI’s military expenditure alpha data: Same story for Greece and Turkey?","authors":"G. Gunluk-Senesen","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.11.2.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.11.2.14","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this article is to assess the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) updated military expenditure data for Greece and Turkey. Testing for data reliability involves two stages. First, for 1949–2014, the time pattern of Turkish military expenditure is explored by comparing national military budget data with the updated SIPRI data. Second, the new data for 1980–2001 are used to replicate an earlier study on possible action-reaction military spending behavior between Greece and Turkey. The findings still hold when the analysis is based on SIPRI’s updated data.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"11 1","pages":"14-19"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2016-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66908390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-06-23DOI: 10.5771/0175-274X-2016-2-134
Christoph Günther, T. Kaden
This paper provides an analysis of the sources of authority that the Islamic State employs locally and globally in order to further the establishment of a worldwide caliphate. To allow for a more comprehensive understanding of the propositions the Islamic State makes towards its audiences, we argue it can be regarded as a sociopolitical movement and a quasistate with different sources of authority and means of power pertaining to each. Both realms of authority are hybridized by the Islamic State, thus providing the Islamic State with a stability that is often overlooked in public debates about its prospects.
{"title":"Beyond Mere Terrorism: The Islamic State’s Authority as a Social Movement and as a Quasi-State","authors":"Christoph Günther, T. Kaden","doi":"10.5771/0175-274X-2016-2-134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5771/0175-274X-2016-2-134","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides an analysis of the sources of authority that the Islamic State employs locally and globally in order to further the establishment of a worldwide caliphate. To allow for a more comprehensive understanding of the propositions the Islamic State makes towards its audiences, we argue it can be regarded as a sociopolitical movement and a quasistate with different sources of authority and means of power pertaining to each. Both realms of authority are hybridized by the Islamic State, thus providing the Islamic State with a stability that is often overlooked in public debates about its prospects.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"34 1","pages":"134-140"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2016-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72646468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article explains changes in Turkey’s security perceptions after the current ruling party, the AKP, came to power. It focuses on how Turkey tried to change the structure of conflictual relations with countries it has long viewed as sources of threat. Focusing on Syria, especially, the article delineates economic tools for conflict reduction and regional integration employed by Turkey and analyzes the challenges and main obstacles that the Turkish government has faced, especially after the Arab spring upheavals. The article then devotes attention to Turkey’s military modernization efforts launched to cope with the new threat environment and from there moves on to elaborate on the effect of security policy preferences and design on Turkish security-related resource allocation since the early 2000s. The intermingled nature of internal and external security policies calls for broadening the context of the economic aspects of security to include police, gendarmerie, and coast guard services along with the military. Descriptive analysis of on-budget components and off-budget facilities shed light on Turkey’s recent position in the international arena as an important military spender and arms importer.
{"title":"Turkey’s changing security perceptions and expenditures in the 2000s: Substitutes or complements?","authors":"Gulden Ayman, G. Gunluk-Senesen","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.11.1.35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.11.1.35","url":null,"abstract":"This article explains changes in Turkey’s security perceptions after the current ruling party, the AKP, came to power. It focuses on how Turkey tried to change the structure of conflictual relations with countries it has long viewed as sources of threat. Focusing on Syria, especially, the article delineates economic tools for conflict reduction and regional integration employed by Turkey and analyzes the challenges and main obstacles that the Turkish government has faced, especially after the Arab spring upheavals. The article then devotes attention to Turkey’s military modernization efforts launched to cope with the new threat environment and from there moves on to elaborate on the effect of security policy preferences and design on Turkish security-related resource allocation since the early 2000s. The intermingled nature of internal and external security policies calls for broadening the context of the economic aspects of security to include police, gendarmerie, and coast guard services along with the military. Descriptive analysis of on-budget components and off-budget facilities shed light on Turkey’s recent position in the international arena as an important military spender and arms importer.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"11 1","pages":"35-45"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2016-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66908415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article examines the evolution of concentration in the global arms market, or industry, over the period 1990-2013 and considers its prospects. Using data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) list of the largest 100 arms producing firms, it finds that within the international arms industry, there has been change but also continuity, particularly in the nature of the markets and the relations between the main producers and governments. While the changes that have taken place are important, it is still political rather than economic logic that shapes the evolution of the market. Certainly the arms industry remains relatively unconcentrated compared to other industries probably because of the domestic preferences in procurement by national governments. Countries do not like monopoly arms producers, but there is no western country other than the United States that can currently support more than one competitor, although in the near future Russia could and China may provide serious international competition to the U.S. What is clear is that there are economic forces pushing for increased competition, but the final outcome will be determined by political forces, and transparency and governance will become increasingly important issues.
{"title":"The evolution of concentration in the arms market","authors":"J. Dunne, Ronald Smith","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.11.1.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.11.1.12","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the evolution of concentration in the global arms market, or industry, over the period 1990-2013 and considers its prospects. Using data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) list of the largest 100 arms producing firms, it finds that within the international arms industry, there has been change but also continuity, particularly in the nature of the markets and the relations between the main producers and governments. While the changes that have taken place are important, it is still political rather than economic logic that shapes the evolution of the market. Certainly the arms industry remains relatively unconcentrated compared to other industries probably because of the domestic preferences in procurement by national governments. Countries do not like monopoly arms producers, but there is no western country other than the United States that can currently support more than one competitor, although in the near future Russia could and China may provide serious international competition to the U.S. What is clear is that there are economic forces pushing for increased competition, but the final outcome will be determined by political forces, and transparency and governance will become increasingly important issues.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"11 1","pages":"12-17"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2016-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66908058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Despite the vast amount of empirical work performed on the defense–growth relationship, the impact of military expenditure on public debt is a largely neglected topic. The recent Greek debt crisis brought to the forefront the role of military expenditure as well as the inefficiencies and the inability of the EU to deal with the European debt crisis. This article investigates the role of military expenditure (among other factors) in the evolution of the Greek debt over the period 1970-2011. Greece is a particularly interesting case in this regard, given its high military burden since 1974 and the recent debt crisis that led the country to sign a bail-out package presented by the European Union, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, which involves extreme austerity measures and cuts in public spending. Employing the ARDL approach to cointegration, this article concludes that military expenditure and arms imports have had an adverse (i.e., increasing) effect on Greek public debt in the short-run, while investment has helped to reduce debt both in the short- and the long-run.
{"title":"The role of military expenditure and arms imports in the Greek debt crisis","authors":"E. Nikolaidou","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.11.1.18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.11.1.18","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the vast amount of empirical work performed on the defense–growth relationship, the impact of military expenditure on public debt is a largely neglected topic. The recent Greek debt crisis brought to the forefront the role of military expenditure as well as the inefficiencies and the inability of the EU to deal with the European debt crisis. This article investigates the role of military expenditure (among other factors) in the evolution of the Greek debt over the period 1970-2011. Greece is a particularly interesting case in this regard, given its high military burden since 1974 and the recent debt crisis that led the country to sign a bail-out package presented by the European Union, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, which involves extreme austerity measures and cuts in public spending. Employing the ARDL approach to cointegration, this article concludes that military expenditure and arms imports have had an adverse (i.e., increasing) effect on Greek public debt in the short-run, while investment has helped to reduce debt both in the short- and the long-run.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"11 1","pages":"18-27"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2016-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66908077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Against the backdrop of significant political, economic, and security-related changes that have taken place over the past two decades or so, this article examines the factors that affect military expenditure in Greece. Invariably ranked among the countries with the highest defense burden in the EU and NATO, it would appear that such budgetary outlays have mostly been driven by the ability of the economy to allocate scarce resources to national defense and less so by external security considerations.
{"title":"Military expenditure in Greece: Security challenges and economic constraints","authors":"C. Kollias, Suzanna‐Maria Paleologou, A. Stergiou","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.11.1.28","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.11.1.28","url":null,"abstract":"Against the backdrop of significant political, economic, and security-related changes that have taken place over the past two decades or so, this article examines the factors that affect military expenditure in Greece. Invariably ranked among the countries with the highest defense burden in the EU and NATO, it would appear that such budgetary outlays have mostly been driven by the ability of the economy to allocate scarce resources to national defense and less so by external security considerations.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"11 1","pages":"28-34"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2016-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66908126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Three seemingly unrelated topics of Russian politics are investigated. It is shown that under expected utility maximization the assumptions of an unbiased oil forward market and a risk-acceptant attitude (strictly convex utility function) are sufficient to explain Russia’s open position in oil and the bailout of Rosneft. The risk-acceptant attitude of the Russian leader also causes a shrunken bargaining range for the conflict in Ukraine, which can be enlarged by sanctions but not necessarily by the proliferation of weapons. This gives sanctions a clear edge over the proliferation of weapons.
{"title":"A rationalist explanation of Russian risk-taking","authors":"F. Lehrbass, Valentin Weinhold","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.11.1.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.11.1.5","url":null,"abstract":"Three seemingly unrelated topics of Russian politics are investigated. It is shown that under expected utility maximization the assumptions of an unbiased oil forward market and a risk-acceptant attitude (strictly convex utility function) are sufficient to explain Russia’s open position in oil and the bailout of Rosneft. The risk-acceptant attitude of the Russian leader also causes a shrunken bargaining range for the conflict in Ukraine, which can be enlarged by sanctions but not necessarily by the proliferation of weapons. This gives sanctions a clear edge over the proliferation of weapons.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"22 1","pages":"5-11"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2016-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66908547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Since Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced in April 2013 the formation of the new Islamic polity, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), it has slowly become the epitome of terror. Certain acts of violence and atrocities committed by ISIS create the impression that it is acting out of blind, destructive religious fanaticism. In contrast, this article argues that this perception is but media-driven speculation. Instead of being religious zealots, ordering the purposeless killing of infidels, ISIS’ actions are governed by a strong rationale and a clear aim, namely the creation of a state, moreover one that extends beyond the traditional constitutive elements of statehood. In particular, ISIS’ rationality serves the purpose of consolidating an Islamic State in the Middle Eastern region, and beyond, under a Caliphate with a claim to universal governance and jurisdiction. This article illustrates the mechanisms which ISIS uses to achieve its aim of establishing an extended state, and it elaborates on the impact of actions and policies against ISIS on the basis of an evolutionary game theoretic model.
{"title":"Rational atrocities and state formation: A game theoretic approach to the case of ISIS","authors":"S. Ille, Dina Mansour","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.10.2.21","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.10.2.21","url":null,"abstract":"Since Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced in April 2013 the formation of the new Islamic polity, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), it has slowly become the epitome of terror. Certain acts of violence and atrocities committed by ISIS create the impression that it is acting out of blind, destructive religious fanaticism. In contrast, this article argues that this perception is but media-driven speculation. Instead of being religious zealots, ordering the purposeless killing of infidels, ISIS’ actions are governed by a strong rationale and a clear aim, namely the creation of a state, moreover one that extends beyond the traditional constitutive elements of statehood. In particular, ISIS’ rationality serves the purpose of consolidating an Islamic State in the Middle Eastern region, and beyond, under a Caliphate with a claim to universal governance and jurisdiction. This article illustrates the mechanisms which ISIS uses to achieve its aim of establishing an extended state, and it elaborates on the impact of actions and policies against ISIS on the basis of an evolutionary game theoretic model.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"10 1","pages":"21-30"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66908247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An important question underlies the potential for a successful peace process in Afghanistan: If political negotiations between the Taliban leadership and the Afghan government succeed, will fighters in the field cease their activities, especially illicit funding practices, and accept government legal authority? Interviews conducted in early 2014—well before the announcement of Mullah Omar’s death or the appearance of Islamic State in the region—indicate that a wide gulf separates the motivations of low-level insurgents from their leadership’s ideological objectives. The rank and file fight for multiple reasons, the most significant of which is the financial advantage of association with the movement. Recent studies of the economics of insurgency describe a crime-insurgency-terror nexus that applies to the contemporary Afghan context, albeit requiring adjustment to account for the distinctive political circumstances and wartime history of Afghanistan.
{"title":"Economic impediments to a Taliban peace process","authors":"James Weir, Hekmatullah Azamy","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.10.2.75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.10.2.75","url":null,"abstract":"An important question underlies the potential for a successful peace process in Afghanistan: If political negotiations between the Taliban leadership and the Afghan government succeed, will fighters in the field cease their activities, especially illicit funding practices, and accept government legal authority? Interviews conducted in early 2014—well before the announcement of Mullah Omar’s death or the appearance of Islamic State in the region—indicate that a wide gulf separates the motivations of low-level insurgents from their leadership’s ideological objectives. The rank and file fight for multiple reasons, the most significant of which is the financial advantage of association with the movement. Recent studies of the economics of insurgency describe a crime-insurgency-terror nexus that applies to the contemporary Afghan context, albeit requiring adjustment to account for the distinctive political circumstances and wartime history of Afghanistan.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"10 1","pages":"75-84"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66907987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Recent studies present contrasting findings on how reconstruction and development aid affects security in wartime contexts. Some research has found that aid projects decrease violent incidences, while other work has found both no effect or even evidence of a positive relationship. Addressing this mixed empirical picture, this article examines the complex intra-communal dynamics spurred by the distribution of aid in rural Afghanistan. Drawing on original interviews conducted in a community of Marjah district, Helmand province, the analysis indicates that development aid helps to elevate previously relatively less powerful individuals into positions of community leadership. This newly generated class of local leadership subsequently develops relationships to the community that differ from their predecessors since their social position is rooted in new sources of power. As a result, intra-community tension increases. These findings help to specify the conditions under which the delivery of aid may not help to win “hearts and minds” of locals and may potentially promote conflict. In addition, the analysis underscores how consideration of antecedent social conditions and temporal processes can help to refine our understanding of the wartime relationship between aid and security.
{"title":"Aid, power, and grievances: Lessons for war and peace from rural Afghanistan","authors":"Daniel Karell","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.10.2.42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.10.2.42","url":null,"abstract":"Recent studies present contrasting findings on how reconstruction and development aid affects security in wartime contexts. Some research has found that aid projects decrease violent incidences, while other work has found both no effect or even evidence of a positive relationship. Addressing this mixed empirical picture, this article examines the complex intra-communal dynamics spurred by the distribution of aid in rural Afghanistan. Drawing on original interviews conducted in a community of Marjah district, Helmand province, the analysis indicates that development aid helps to elevate previously relatively less powerful individuals into positions of community leadership. This newly generated class of local leadership subsequently develops relationships to the community that differ from their predecessors since their social position is rooted in new sources of power. As a result, intra-community tension increases. These findings help to specify the conditions under which the delivery of aid may not help to win “hearts and minds” of locals and may potentially promote conflict. In addition, the analysis underscores how consideration of antecedent social conditions and temporal processes can help to refine our understanding of the wartime relationship between aid and security.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"10 1","pages":"43-52"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66908330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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