Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-14
D. Ushkalova
The article discusses the specifics of the development of Russia’s foreign trade in the new realities, formed, on the one hand, by the unprecedented sanctions regime against the Russian economy, and, on the other hand, by a sharp increase in prices on world commodity markets in the context of increased geopolitical uncertainty, which allows Russia to financially compensate for the decline in physical volumes of export deliveries. The nature of the sanctions imposed against Russia and their impact on the dynamics of its exports and imports and the conjuncture of world commodity markets are analyzed. The concept of "trap of a big country" is introduced in relation to anti- Russian sanctions. An assessment of the results of Russia’s foreign trade in January–May 2022 is given and brief proposals for improving of Russia’s foreign trade policy are made. The conclusion is made about the resistance of the cost volumes of Russian exports to sanctions pressure and the need for a foreign trade policy aimed at comprehensive support of imports necessary for the functioning of the domestic economy in the short term.
{"title":"Russia’s foreign trade under sanctions pressure","authors":"D. Ushkalova","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-14","url":null,"abstract":"The article discusses the specifics of the development of Russia’s foreign trade in the new realities, formed, on the one hand, by the unprecedented sanctions regime against the Russian economy, and, on the other hand, by a sharp increase in prices on world commodity markets in the context of increased geopolitical uncertainty, which allows Russia to financially compensate for the decline in physical volumes of export deliveries. The nature of the sanctions imposed against Russia and their impact on the dynamics of its exports and imports and the conjuncture of world commodity markets are analyzed. The concept of \"trap of a big country\" is introduced in relation to anti- Russian sanctions. An assessment of the results of Russia’s foreign trade in January–May 2022 is given and brief proposals for improving of Russia’s foreign trade policy are made. The conclusion is made about the resistance of the cost volumes of Russian exports to sanctions pressure and the need for a foreign trade policy aimed at comprehensive support of imports necessary for the functioning of the domestic economy in the short term.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69823509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-9
A. Galeev
The paper focuses on the interpretation of David Ricardo’s theory of value and distribution suggested by Yuli Zhukovsky, a 19th century Russian economist. In his interpretation, Zhukovsky introduced a two-factor production model characterized by decreasing marginal productivity as well as supply-and-demand price mechanism. Zhukovsky’s interpretation of Ricardo was an attempt to deliver a more rigorous approach to the agrarian issue — the hot topic that marked the public debates in Russia after the abolition of serfdom in 1861. Zhukovsky, an early critic of Marx, outlined a different path in the reception of the classical approach in Russia that preceded later developments in mathematical economics. The paper introduces Zhukovsky’s interpretation as a case of proto-marginalist analysis. It also demonstrates that Zhukovsky treated the mathematical apparatus as an instrument for the practical application of political economy to the issue of economic development.
{"title":"Proto-marginalist approach in Russia: Yuli Zhukovsky’s interpretation of Ricardo","authors":"A. Galeev","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-9","url":null,"abstract":"The paper focuses on the interpretation of David Ricardo’s theory of value and distribution suggested by Yuli Zhukovsky, a 19th century Russian economist. In his interpretation, Zhukovsky introduced a two-factor production model characterized by decreasing marginal productivity as well as supply-and-demand price mechanism. Zhukovsky’s interpretation of Ricardo was an attempt to deliver a more rigorous approach to the agrarian issue — the hot topic that marked the public debates in Russia after the abolition of serfdom in 1861. Zhukovsky, an early critic of Marx, outlined a different path in the reception of the classical approach in Russia that preceded later developments in mathematical economics. The paper introduces Zhukovsky’s interpretation as a case of proto-marginalist analysis. It also demonstrates that Zhukovsky treated the mathematical apparatus as an instrument for the practical application of political economy to the issue of economic development.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69823763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-13
T. Romanova, A. Portanskiy
After February 24, 2022, as a result of the confl ict in Ukraine, the situation in Europe and the world as a whole has undergone signifi cant changes, moving the issues of the climate agenda away from the priority list. But political-military aggravation in Europe does not eliminate climate change problems. The authors summarize the implications of the EU Green Deal for Russia and propose two scenarios for the possible collaboration between two actors: climate partnership and «business as usual». The main parameters of the two scenarios are outlined. Though climate partnership scenario seemed unrealistic by early June 2022, cooperation on the green agenda remains vital for both sides both in terms of dealing with global and regional challenges and for stabilizing Russia-EU interaction as a whole. The authors suggest recommendations to help Moscow and Brussels construct an optimal cooperation on climate in the medium-term perspective. The article is based on a study completed in 2021.
{"title":"The imperative of EU–Russia cooperation in climate policy is preserved","authors":"T. Romanova, A. Portanskiy","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-13","url":null,"abstract":"After February 24, 2022, as a result of the confl ict in Ukraine, the situation in Europe and the world as a whole has undergone signifi cant changes, moving the issues of the climate agenda away from the priority list. But political-military aggravation in Europe does not eliminate climate change problems. The authors summarize the implications of the EU Green Deal for Russia and propose two scenarios for the possible collaboration between two actors: climate partnership and «business as usual». The main parameters of the two scenarios are outlined. Though climate partnership scenario seemed unrealistic by early June 2022, cooperation on the green agenda remains vital for both sides both in terms of dealing with global and regional challenges and for stabilizing Russia-EU interaction as a whole. The authors suggest recommendations to help Moscow and Brussels construct an optimal cooperation on climate in the medium-term perspective. The article is based on a study completed in 2021.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69824340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-7
D. Vinogradov, D. V. Kashin, E. Shadrina
Public procurement entities in Russia do not have to include environmental criteria in procurement, yet the strategic priority of the Russian government implicitly calls for it. We analyse such institutional factors affecting green public procurement, as the stringency of the law and the level organisation takes in the federal–municipal hierarchy. Our sample covers all procedures in public procurement of construction works in RF in 2019. International environmental standards are widely used in construction, suggesting procurement entities might be informed about existing environmental criteria. The data revealing green procedures is rather rare, and the strictness of the law reduces the probability of including environmental criteria in procurement. Organisations at the federal and regional levels are more likely to use environmental criteria in procurement than those at the municipal level. Corporations governed by the more fl exible procurement law are more likely to use environmental criteria. With respect to energy effi ciency, where clear guidance exists, the difference diminishes or reverts. Results indicate fl exible legislation and clear guidance may reduce caution and through that contribute to wider adoption of green public procurement in Russia.
{"title":"Institutional factors affect sustainability of public procurement of construction works in Russia","authors":"D. Vinogradov, D. V. Kashin, E. Shadrina","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-7","url":null,"abstract":"Public procurement entities in Russia do not have to include environmental criteria in procurement, yet the strategic priority of the Russian government implicitly calls for it. We analyse such institutional factors affecting green public procurement, as the stringency of the law and the level organisation takes in the federal–municipal hierarchy. Our sample covers all procedures in public procurement of construction works in RF in 2019. International environmental standards are widely used in construction, suggesting procurement entities might be informed about existing environmental criteria. The data revealing green procedures is rather rare, and the strictness of the law reduces the probability of including environmental criteria in procurement. Organisations at the federal and regional levels are more likely to use environmental criteria in procurement than those at the municipal level. Corporations governed by the more fl exible procurement law are more likely to use environmental criteria. With respect to energy effi ciency, where clear guidance exists, the difference diminishes or reverts. Results indicate fl exible legislation and clear guidance may reduce caution and through that contribute to wider adoption of green public procurement in Russia.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69824593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-11
L. Gudkov
The massive desire to change the state and political system of late socialism in the late 1980s — in the first half of the 1990s led to the emergence of many new public organizations and real competition between the political parties, to freedom of the media, religious associations, everything that forms a “society” as a system of social relations based on mutual interests and solidarity. These processes have given rise to hopes for the country’s exit from a long state of stagnation to democratization, turning it into a “normal country”, the same as other developed countries of the West. But by the end of the 1990s, the negative consequences of protracted and half-hearted institutional reforms turned into mass disillusionment with the ideology of reforms, distrust of democratic parties, the need for stability, craving for conservatism and hopes for a strong leader who could return “order” to the people, a sense of security, predictability of everyday existence, guaranteed prosperity and confidence in tomorrow. Illusions of the transition period were replaced by conservative views and the restoration of state paternalism as ideological residues of Brezhnev’s socialism. Data of sociological research shows, that hopes for the state paternalism over ordinary people are now combined with a pronounced distrust of the social institutions of state, political passivity and refusal to participate in public activities. Trust is limited only to the sphere of private existence. In this regard, “society” in the sociological sense can be considered per se only with a high degree of conditionality.
{"title":"Inertia of state paternalism and its consequences","authors":"L. Gudkov","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-11","url":null,"abstract":"The massive desire to change the state and political system of late socialism in the late 1980s — in the first half of the 1990s led to the emergence of many new public organizations and real competition between the political parties, to freedom of the media, religious associations, everything that forms a “society” as a system of social relations based on mutual interests and solidarity. These processes have given rise to hopes for the country’s exit from a long state of stagnation to democratization, turning it into a “normal country”, the same as other developed countries of the West. But by the end of the 1990s, the negative consequences of protracted and half-hearted institutional reforms turned into mass disillusionment with the ideology of reforms, distrust of democratic parties, the need for stability, craving for conservatism and hopes for a strong leader who could return “order” to the people, a sense of security, predictability of everyday existence, guaranteed prosperity and confidence in tomorrow. Illusions of the transition period were replaced by conservative views and the restoration of state paternalism as ideological residues of Brezhnev’s socialism. Data of sociological research shows, that hopes for the state paternalism over ordinary people are now combined with a pronounced distrust of the social institutions of state, political passivity and refusal to participate in public activities. Trust is limited only to the sphere of private existence. In this regard, “society” in the sociological sense can be considered per se only with a high degree of conditionality.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69824600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-11
Stepan Zemtsov
Technological entrepreneurship is a potential driver of Russia’s socio-economic development. But an optimal combination of environment and business networks (entrepreneurial ecosystem) to be formed is very rare and depends on many factors. The article discusses the potential role of technology start-ups in diversification, economic and employment growth, and adaptation to technological changes. The number of start-ups in Russia had decreased since 2015, and there is a low entrepreneurial activity in comparison with other countries. In general, the change in the industry structure of startups in Russia is consistent with the global trends; the role of knowledge-intensive business services and ICT is high and growing, the share of manufacturing is declining. We revealed the determining role of socio-cultural factors, human capital and universities, business climate and access to foreign markets in the creation and success of technology companies, as well as the contradictory impact of state support. Significant and increasing role of immigrants and diaspora abroad is underestimated for Russia. We noted the inability of the widespread development of successful technology companies (“gazelles”, “unicorns”); identified regional and sectoral priorities for public policy. We examined the main elements and models of national entrepreneurial ecosystems, limitations and prospects for their application in Russia.
{"title":"Technological entrepreneurship as a development factor of Russia","authors":"Stepan Zemtsov","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-11","url":null,"abstract":"Technological entrepreneurship is a potential driver of Russia’s socio-economic development. But an optimal combination of environment and business networks (entrepreneurial ecosystem) to be formed is very rare and depends on many factors. The article discusses the potential role of technology start-ups in diversification, economic and employment growth, and adaptation to technological changes. The number of start-ups in Russia had decreased since 2015, and there is a low entrepreneurial activity in comparison with other countries. In general, the change in the industry structure of startups in Russia is consistent with the global trends; the role of knowledge-intensive business services and ICT is high and growing, the share of manufacturing is declining. We revealed the determining role of socio-cultural factors, human capital and universities, business climate and access to foreign markets in the creation and success of technology companies, as well as the contradictory impact of state support. Significant and increasing role of immigrants and diaspora abroad is underestimated for Russia. We noted the inability of the widespread development of successful technology companies (“gazelles”, “unicorns”); identified regional and sectoral priorities for public policy. We examined the main elements and models of national entrepreneurial ecosystems, limitations and prospects for their application in Russia.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69821875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-9
M. Sushentsova, I. Chaplygina
This paper is devoted to clarification of Marx’s view of man in terms of his special humanism and materialism. The authors argue that Marx’s works contain normative elements and the basic value for him is free human self-realization. But this self-realization doesn’t serve as a mean for embodiment of certain human ideals; it is the end in itself. So, the authors qualify Marx’s position in comparison with other kinds of humanism as non-directed anthropocentrism. Marx rejects the autonomy of abstract ethics, as well as any abstract categories, and raises the significance of human practice as the process of life’s actualization. In this context, the historical materialism of Marx appears closely related to his conception of man as an active agent of history and creator of material world: significant part of material world is interpreted by Marx as the estranged and objectified human subjectivity; nature and man are perceived as the dialectical unity, and the first one acquires its significance only as the living space of the second. This allowed the authors to propose the term “subjective materialism” for defining Marx’s approach. Even in Marx’s later works, the historical task of developing productive forces appears to be permeated with the general humanistic goal of full human liberation and recovery its primacy in relation to the external world. And this task appears to be the key trend of the history in the Marx’s conception.
{"title":"The nature of humanism and materialism of Marx’s concept of man","authors":"M. Sushentsova, I. Chaplygina","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-9","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is devoted to clarification of Marx’s view of man in terms of his special humanism and materialism. The authors argue that Marx’s works contain normative elements and the basic value for him is free human self-realization. But this self-realization doesn’t serve as a mean for embodiment of certain human ideals; it is the end in itself. So, the authors qualify Marx’s position in comparison with other kinds of humanism as non-directed anthropocentrism. Marx rejects the autonomy of abstract ethics, as well as any abstract categories, and raises the significance of human practice as the process of life’s actualization. In this context, the historical materialism of Marx appears closely related to his conception of man as an active agent of history and creator of material world: significant part of material world is interpreted by Marx as the estranged and objectified human subjectivity; nature and man are perceived as the dialectical unity, and the first one acquires its significance only as the living space of the second. This allowed the authors to propose the term “subjective materialism” for defining Marx’s approach. Even in Marx’s later works, the historical task of developing productive forces appears to be permeated with the general humanistic goal of full human liberation and recovery its primacy in relation to the external world. And this task appears to be the key trend of the history in the Marx’s conception.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69822495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-17
V. Polterovich
It is shown that the program of institutional changes, outlined in a number of articles of the author, is even more relevant in the current context of sanctions and needs to be further elaborated. Due to restrictions on import and export flows, the need to form long chains of added value within the country is increasing. Business cannot cope with this task on its own. To solve it the institutions of catching-up development are needed, including the system of indicative planning headed by the general development agency and the national innovation system aimed at borrowing of technologies with a gradual increase of own innovative developments. It is advisable to conduct the reform of economic governance as a continuation of the reform of project activities carried out in 2018–2019. New institutions must ensure economic growth by forming a set of mega-projects and programs, coordinated with each other and with the budget, based on the coordination of efforts of the state, business and society at the federal, regional and municipal levels. The increased necessity of differentiated progressive income tax introduction is underlined. The expediency of forming consortiums, expanding the system of sector research institutes and increasing investment in education are noted.
{"title":"Once again about where to go: Toward a development strategy in isolation from the West","authors":"V. Polterovich","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-17","url":null,"abstract":"It is shown that the program of institutional changes, outlined in a number of articles of the author, is even more relevant in the current context of sanctions and needs to be further elaborated. Due to restrictions on import and export flows, the need to form long chains of added value within the country is increasing. Business cannot cope with this task on its own. To solve it the institutions of catching-up development are needed, including the system of indicative planning headed by the general development agency and the national innovation system aimed at borrowing of technologies with a gradual increase of own innovative developments. It is advisable to conduct the reform of economic governance as a continuation of the reform of project activities carried out in 2018–2019. New institutions must ensure economic growth by forming a set of mega-projects and programs, coordinated with each other and with the budget, based on the coordination of efforts of the state, business and society at the federal, regional and municipal levels. The increased necessity of differentiated progressive income tax introduction is underlined. The expediency of forming consortiums, expanding the system of sector research institutes and increasing investment in education are noted.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69823270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-15
N. Zubarevich
In the first three months of the sanctions’ crisis, regions connected with the global market were hit harder: these are the exporters of oil, gas, metals, and regions of the manufacturing industries with a high share of imported components. The influence of specialization has increased; in industry the decline is stronger in the regions of the automotive industry, oil and gas production, ferrous metallurgy. The decline in retail sales is stronger in the agglomerations of the largest cities due to the departure of foreign companies and in some regions with low incomes, where the population is faster reducing consumption. The decline or stagnation of personal income tax revenues in May 2022 manifested in the regions of the fuel complex, metallurgy, in some depressed regions and in underdeveloped Republics, where the share of shadow business may increase. The risks of part-time employment are higher in the industrial regions of the Center, the Volga district and part of the Urals. The employment reduction risks in the market services are higher in agglomerations and other major cities, in part of the depressed regions; in resort regions they are mitigated by increased home tourism. The risks of regional budgets tax revenues decline are strongest in more developed and export-oriented regions. The Southern agrarian regions and the Far East (with the exception of Sakhalin) are going through the crisis more mildly due to the home demand for food products and its exports, and for the Far Eastern regions — due to orientation to the Asian markets, especially China. Moscow is likely to go through a new crisis, like the two previous ones, softer than other regions, especially in terms of the dynamics of household incomes and the budget revenues.
{"title":"Regions of Russia in the new economic realities","authors":"N. Zubarevich","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-15","url":null,"abstract":"In the first three months of the sanctions’ crisis, regions connected with the global market were hit harder: these are the exporters of oil, gas, metals, and regions of the manufacturing industries with a high share of imported components. The influence of specialization has increased; in industry the decline is stronger in the regions of the automotive industry, oil and gas production, ferrous metallurgy. The decline in retail sales is stronger in the agglomerations of the largest cities due to the departure of foreign companies and in some regions with low incomes, where the population is faster reducing consumption. The decline or stagnation of personal income tax revenues in May 2022 manifested in the regions of the fuel complex, metallurgy, in some depressed regions and in underdeveloped Republics, where the share of shadow business may increase. The risks of part-time employment are higher in the industrial regions of the Center, the Volga district and part of the Urals. The employment reduction risks in the market services are higher in agglomerations and other major cities, in part of the depressed regions; in resort regions they are mitigated by increased home tourism. The risks of regional budgets tax revenues decline are strongest in more developed and export-oriented regions. The Southern agrarian regions and the Far East (with the exception of Sakhalin) are going through the crisis more mildly due to the home demand for food products and its exports, and for the Far Eastern regions — due to orientation to the Asian markets, especially China. Moscow is likely to go through a new crisis, like the two previous ones, softer than other regions, especially in terms of the dynamics of household incomes and the budget revenues.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69823561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-7
A. Kolpakov, A. A. Yantovskii, A. A. Galinger
The article presents a methodological approach to assessing the cost of energy for the world economy in ambitious scenarios for reducing CO2 emissions associated with energy consumption. The approach takes into account that large-scale replacement of fossil fuels with electricity generated from renewable energy sources: a) should be accompanied by the grid development and the deployment of reserve storage capacities and hydrogen technologies; b) requires the use of mechanisms for projects payback, which are included in the final prices for electricity; c) will create the need to replace the shortfall in budget revenues from the production and consumption of hydrocarbon fuels. Forecast calculations show that the scenario of achieving zero emissions in the middle of the XXI century may turn out to be unstable, since it is characterized by increase in the cost of energy supply to the world economy by 40% compared to the current level, and the ratio of energy costs to GDP will exceed 13% in certain periods, and for some countries (including Russia) — 15%. For the global economy to remain within its solvency limits, hydrocarbons should play a decisive role in energy supply for another two decades, but the growth in energy demand can increasingly be met with the help of carbon-free solutions.
{"title":"Cost of achieving zero CO2 emissions by mid-century: Approach and estimation for the world largest economies","authors":"A. Kolpakov, A. A. Yantovskii, A. A. Galinger","doi":"10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-7","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents a methodological approach to assessing the cost of energy for the world economy in ambitious scenarios for reducing CO2 emissions associated with energy consumption. The approach takes into account that large-scale replacement of fossil fuels with electricity generated from renewable energy sources: a) should be accompanied by the grid development and the deployment of reserve storage capacities and hydrogen technologies; b) requires the use of mechanisms for projects payback, which are included in the final prices for electricity; c) will create the need to replace the shortfall in budget revenues from the production and consumption of hydrocarbon fuels. Forecast calculations show that the scenario of achieving zero emissions in the middle of the XXI century may turn out to be unstable, since it is characterized by increase in the cost of energy supply to the world economy by 40% compared to the current level, and the ratio of energy costs to GDP will exceed 13% in certain periods, and for some countries (including Russia) — 15%. For the global economy to remain within its solvency limits, hydrocarbons should play a decisive role in energy supply for another two decades, but the growth in energy demand can increasingly be met with the help of carbon-free solutions.","PeriodicalId":43676,"journal":{"name":"Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69823871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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