Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.2.009
E. Magaril, L. Gitelman, A. Karaeva, A. Kiselev, M. Kozhevnikov
Efficient energy supply of industrial enterprises, especially energy-intensive ones, together with a negative environmental impact decrease, is considered to be an important issue throughout the fourth energy transition and the implementation of circular economy principles that are aimed at resource optimization, energy saving, carbon-free technologies and zero waste production. In this context, quite a significant amount of accumulated and annually increasing organic waste could become a valuable resource for Russia. Thereby, biogas technologies development and implementation is one of the potential directions that determine the efficiency of its energy use. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodological approach for the environmental and economic assessment of biogas energy projects. The possibility of introducing biogas and other renewable energy installations into the Russian regional energy system is considered in this manuscript. The methodological features of the environmental and economic assessment of energy facilities are substantiated, taking into account the key performance indicators corresponding to the implementation of circular economy strategies. Alternative approaches to the environmental and economic assessment of investment projects are proposed using an integral indicator of environmental and economic efficiency, which is calculated both with: (a) positive and negative consequences of an environmental and economic entities that are significant for the region; (b) aggregated private indicators, which take into account the intensity of nature use and environmental friendliness of projects; (c) complex score. The proposed approach can be used for the environmental and economic assessment of the introduction of biogas technologies efficiency, as well as through the comparison of alternatives for modernization projects in the energy sector.
{"title":"Methodological Approach to the Environmental and Economic Assessment of Biogas Energy Projects","authors":"E. Magaril, L. Gitelman, A. Karaeva, A. Kiselev, M. Kozhevnikov","doi":"10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.2.009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.2.009","url":null,"abstract":"Efficient energy supply of industrial enterprises, especially energy-intensive ones, together with a negative environmental impact decrease, is considered to be an important issue throughout the fourth energy transition and the implementation of circular economy principles that are aimed at resource optimization, energy saving, carbon-free technologies and zero waste production. In this context, quite a significant amount of accumulated and annually increasing organic waste could become a valuable resource for Russia. Thereby, biogas technologies development and implementation is one of the potential directions that determine the efficiency of its energy use. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodological approach for the environmental and economic assessment of biogas energy projects. The possibility of introducing biogas and other renewable energy installations into the Russian regional energy system is considered in this manuscript. The methodological features of the environmental and economic assessment of energy facilities are substantiated, taking into account the key performance indicators corresponding to the implementation of circular economy strategies. Alternative approaches to the environmental and economic assessment of investment projects are proposed using an integral indicator of environmental and economic efficiency, which is calculated both with: (a) positive and negative consequences of an environmental and economic entities that are significant for the region; (b) aggregated private indicators, which take into account the intensity of nature use and environmental friendliness of projects; (c) complex score. The proposed approach can be used for the environmental and economic assessment of the introduction of biogas technologies efficiency, as well as through the comparison of alternatives for modernization projects in the energy sector.","PeriodicalId":44290,"journal":{"name":"Margin-Journal of Applied Economic Research","volume":"129 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80476620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.3.020
I. Shevchenko, Y. Razvadovskaya
Dynamic transformations in the economic, technological, social and political contours of global development adds a number of weighty arguments in favor of industrial changes in the domestic economy, involving the development of its own production potential. The purpose of this article is to study the relationship between the dynamics of profit distribution and the affiliation of enterprises in the industrial sector of the economy to various technological groups of industries and forms of ownership. The authors formulate a hypothesis that in the context of industrial changes at the present stage of economic development, the distribution of profitability of companies in the industrial sector implies more intensive structural shifts in the manufacturing industries, mainly in the high-tech sector. The methodology used in this study makes it possible to identify key structural asymmetries in the process of industrial changes in the Russian economy, including in the system of distribution of ownership of capital between state and private companies. To do this, the article uses data on the profit of industrial companies before tax and net profit presented in SPARK for 225,148 privately owned companies, as well as 1,178 state-owned companies for the period from 2011 to 2020. The authors formulate a conclusion about the dominant role of profit in the process of structural inertia of industrial changes in the national economy under conditions of limited invariance. Unlike previous studies, the article proves the presence of features in the distribution of profitability of industrial sectors of various technological groups, as well as the relationship between the form of ownership, net profit and the level of manufacturability of production. The theoretical significance of the study lies in supplementing the main provisions of the theory of industrial development of the economy, including the development of theoretical foundations for assessing the key parameters of the development of industries. The practical significance of the results obtained in the study is determined by the possibility of their application in the system of state incentives for the development of high-tech industries.
{"title":"Study of the Profit Distribution Dynamics of Mining and Manufacturing Enterprises in Russia in the Imperatives of Industrial Changes","authors":"I. Shevchenko, Y. Razvadovskaya","doi":"10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.3.020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.3.020","url":null,"abstract":"Dynamic transformations in the economic, technological, social and political contours of global development adds a number of weighty arguments in favor of industrial changes in the domestic economy, involving the development of its own production potential. The purpose of this article is to study the relationship between the dynamics of profit distribution and the affiliation of enterprises in the industrial sector of the economy to various technological groups of industries and forms of ownership. The authors formulate a hypothesis that in the context of industrial changes at the present stage of economic development, the distribution of profitability of companies in the industrial sector implies more intensive structural shifts in the manufacturing industries, mainly in the high-tech sector. The methodology used in this study makes it possible to identify key structural asymmetries in the process of industrial changes in the Russian economy, including in the system of distribution of ownership of capital between state and private companies. To do this, the article uses data on the profit of industrial companies before tax and net profit presented in SPARK for 225,148 privately owned companies, as well as 1,178 state-owned companies for the period from 2011 to 2020. The authors formulate a conclusion about the dominant role of profit in the process of structural inertia of industrial changes in the national economy under conditions of limited invariance. Unlike previous studies, the article proves the presence of features in the distribution of profitability of industrial sectors of various technological groups, as well as the relationship between the form of ownership, net profit and the level of manufacturability of production. The theoretical significance of the study lies in supplementing the main provisions of the theory of industrial development of the economy, including the development of theoretical foundations for assessing the key parameters of the development of industries. The practical significance of the results obtained in the study is determined by the possibility of their application in the system of state incentives for the development of high-tech industries.","PeriodicalId":44290,"journal":{"name":"Margin-Journal of Applied Economic Research","volume":"102 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78032327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.3.017
S. Belozyorov, Wen Wang, Y. Liu
With the emergence of the digital wave, the problem of regional imbalance in the development of China's digital economy remains serious. The purpose of this research is to scientifically construct a system of indicators of China's digital economy development level and to dissect the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of China's digital economy development. The hypothesis is that the larger the comprehensive index of digital economy development level, the higher the level of digital economy development, the larger the Gini coefficient, the more obvious the difference in digital economy development level. The innovation is the construction of an evaluation index system for digital economy development level, the measurement of China's digital economy development level, and the analysis of the differences between the three regions. The theoretical significance is that it enriches the evaluation index system of China's digital economy development level and provides theoretical support. The practical significance is that it promotes the realization of high-quality economic and social development in China. The results of the research show that overall, the level of China's digital economy development is steadily increasing, but the phenomenon of inter-regional differences is evident, while the degree of variation is gradually decreasing. In terms of the driving factors, the level of economic development, industrial structure, intellectual property protection and technological development all contribute significantly to the development of the level of the digital economy, while government intervention inhibits the development of the digital economy.
{"title":"Analysis of Regional Differences and Influencing Factors of China's Digital Economy Development","authors":"S. Belozyorov, Wen Wang, Y. Liu","doi":"10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.3.017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.3.017","url":null,"abstract":"With the emergence of the digital wave, the problem of regional imbalance in the development of China's digital economy remains serious. The purpose of this research is to scientifically construct a system of indicators of China's digital economy development level and to dissect the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of China's digital economy development. The hypothesis is that the larger the comprehensive index of digital economy development level, the higher the level of digital economy development, the larger the Gini coefficient, the more obvious the difference in digital economy development level. The innovation is the construction of an evaluation index system for digital economy development level, the measurement of China's digital economy development level, and the analysis of the differences between the three regions. The theoretical significance is that it enriches the evaluation index system of China's digital economy development level and provides theoretical support. The practical significance is that it promotes the realization of high-quality economic and social development in China. The results of the research show that overall, the level of China's digital economy development is steadily increasing, but the phenomenon of inter-regional differences is evident, while the degree of variation is gradually decreasing. In terms of the driving factors, the level of economic development, industrial structure, intellectual property protection and technological development all contribute significantly to the development of the level of the digital economy, while government intervention inhibits the development of the digital economy.","PeriodicalId":44290,"journal":{"name":"Margin-Journal of Applied Economic Research","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81365506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.2.010
O. Golovanov, A. Tyrsin, E. Vasilyeva
The article is devoted to a study of the socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. A review of the literature showed that, as a rule, studies of assessing the impact of a pandemic are limited to an analysis of statistical data for 2020 in comparison with 2019 and 2021, without taking into account the socio-economic trends that have developed in the territory. In order to analyze the scale of the problems and develop response measures to the consequences of the pandemic, it is extremely important to form a scientific tool for assessing them. The purpose of the article is to assess the impact of the COVID‑19 pandemic on changing trends in the main indicators of the socio-economic development of the region. The hypothesis of the study is that the degree and duration of the impact of the pandemic on one or another indicator of development is not the same. The research methodology is based on tracking the prevailing trends in indicators before and during the pandemic, as well as on comparing the averages of individual indicators using the Student and Mann-Whitney criteria. In addition, an analysis was made of the presence of structural shifts for the entire analyzed period using the Chow test. The application of the proposed approach for the analyzed periods (before and during the pandemic) allows us to see the presence of heterogeneity or, conversely, homogeneity in the data for the analyzed indicators. The results of calculating their values give an idea of the degree of impact of the pandemic or its absence. The proposed approach was tested on the example of the Sverdlovsk region. The results showed that the impact of the pandemic turned out to be instantaneous, but the degree and duration of the impact for individual sectors of the economy and society are not the same. We have formed four trajectories of the Sverdlovsk region's indicators related to the pandemic: (1) deterioration of the situation without a subsequent recovery trend; (2) deterioration of the situation with subsequent stabilization; (3) temporary deterioration of the situation and the resumption of a positive trend; (4) no significant changes. The proposed approach has a high theoretical and methodological significance; its application will help to solve similar problems of trend research. The results obtained show areas that require additional support for the recovery of the economy and society.
{"title":"Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Trends in Socio-Economic Development of an Industrial Region in Russia","authors":"O. Golovanov, A. Tyrsin, E. Vasilyeva","doi":"10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.2.010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.2.010","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to a study of the socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. A review of the literature showed that, as a rule, studies of assessing the impact of a pandemic are limited to an analysis of statistical data for 2020 in comparison with 2019 and 2021, without taking into account the socio-economic trends that have developed in the territory. In order to analyze the scale of the problems and develop response measures to the consequences of the pandemic, it is extremely important to form a scientific tool for assessing them. The purpose of the article is to assess the impact of the COVID‑19 pandemic on changing trends in the main indicators of the socio-economic development of the region. The hypothesis of the study is that the degree and duration of the impact of the pandemic on one or another indicator of development is not the same. The research methodology is based on tracking the prevailing trends in indicators before and during the pandemic, as well as on comparing the averages of individual indicators using the Student and Mann-Whitney criteria. In addition, an analysis was made of the presence of structural shifts for the entire analyzed period using the Chow test. The application of the proposed approach for the analyzed periods (before and during the pandemic) allows us to see the presence of heterogeneity or, conversely, homogeneity in the data for the analyzed indicators. The results of calculating their values give an idea of the degree of impact of the pandemic or its absence. The proposed approach was tested on the example of the Sverdlovsk region. The results showed that the impact of the pandemic turned out to be instantaneous, but the degree and duration of the impact for individual sectors of the economy and society are not the same. We have formed four trajectories of the Sverdlovsk region's indicators related to the pandemic: (1) deterioration of the situation without a subsequent recovery trend; (2) deterioration of the situation with subsequent stabilization; (3) temporary deterioration of the situation and the resumption of a positive trend; (4) no significant changes. The proposed approach has a high theoretical and methodological significance; its application will help to solve similar problems of trend research. The results obtained show areas that require additional support for the recovery of the economy and society.","PeriodicalId":44290,"journal":{"name":"Margin-Journal of Applied Economic Research","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75345137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.4.026
V. Krivorotov, A. Kalina, S. Erypalov
In the context of the global transformation of the economic space, economic entities become integrated into various kinds of associations and alliances. These processes make it emphatically relevant to improve approaches to assessing and forecasting the competitiveness of such large companies, taking into account the changing conditions of their internal and external environment. Previously developed approaches required a certain revision and appropriate improvements. The purpose of the study is to improve methodological tools and assess the competitiveness of large copper companies at the present stage and in the medium term. Based on the analysis of approaches to assessing and ensuring the competitiveness of economic entities, it was revealed that today the vast majority of these approaches do not take into account the changing conditions of competition and the increased influence of factors reflecting these changes. The article proposes an improved scientific and methodological approach to assessing and forecasting the competitiveness of large companies, which includes four major blocks: the formation of scientific and methodological principles for conducting research; development of methodological tools for multifactorial assessment of the company's competitiveness; optimization of investment projects for the development of the company; formation of predictive strategies for the development of the company associated with the provision of long-term competitive advantages. As part of the approach - a method for multifactorial assessment of the competitiveness of large companies - has been developed. It provides for the consideration of additional factors and their priority, as well as a significant correction of the basic comparison model. A scenario-based methodological approach has been developed to predict the indicators of competitiveness of large companies using economic and statistical modeling, taking into account the specifics of the company's activities. Methodological developments were tested in relation to the Ural Mining and Metallurgical Company against the background of large global companies operating in the same field. The assessment of the level of current competitiveness of companies was carried out in the period 2010–2020; the forecast of competitiveness indicators was made for the period through to 2025, which made it possible to assess post-pandemic development trends from the standpoint of the competitiveness of the companies in question. Based on the results of the study, generalizing conclusions are formulated.
{"title":"Modern Assessment and Forecast Prospects of the Competitiveness of the World's Largest Manufacturers of Copper Products","authors":"V. Krivorotov, A. Kalina, S. Erypalov","doi":"10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.4.026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2022.21.4.026","url":null,"abstract":"In the context of the global transformation of the economic space, economic entities become integrated into various kinds of associations and alliances. These processes make it emphatically relevant to improve approaches to assessing and forecasting the competitiveness of such large companies, taking into account the changing conditions of their internal and external environment. Previously developed approaches required a certain revision and appropriate improvements. The purpose of the study is to improve methodological tools and assess the competitiveness of large copper companies at the present stage and in the medium term. Based on the analysis of approaches to assessing and ensuring the competitiveness of economic entities, it was revealed that today the vast majority of these approaches do not take into account the changing conditions of competition and the increased influence of factors reflecting these changes. The article proposes an improved scientific and methodological approach to assessing and forecasting the competitiveness of large companies, which includes four major blocks: the formation of scientific and methodological principles for conducting research; development of methodological tools for multifactorial assessment of the company's competitiveness; optimization of investment projects for the development of the company; formation of predictive strategies for the development of the company associated with the provision of long-term competitive advantages. As part of the approach - a method for multifactorial assessment of the competitiveness of large companies - has been developed. It provides for the consideration of additional factors and their priority, as well as a significant correction of the basic comparison model. A scenario-based methodological approach has been developed to predict the indicators of competitiveness of large companies using economic and statistical modeling, taking into account the specifics of the company's activities. Methodological developments were tested in relation to the Ural Mining and Metallurgical Company against the background of large global companies operating in the same field. The assessment of the level of current competitiveness of companies was carried out in the period 2010–2020; the forecast of competitiveness indicators was made for the period through to 2025, which made it possible to assess post-pandemic development trends from the standpoint of the competitiveness of the companies in question. Based on the results of the study, generalizing conclusions are formulated.","PeriodicalId":44290,"journal":{"name":"Margin-Journal of Applied Economic Research","volume":"234 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76114131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.4.028
T. Abebe
An increase in inflation volatility implies higher uncertainty about future prices. As a result, producers and consumers can be affected by the increased inflation volatility, because it increases the uncertainty and the risk in the market. Thus, inflation volatility attracts the attention of researchers to find a suitable model which can predict the future conditions of the market. This study aims to fit appropriate ARMA-GARCH family models for food and non-food inflation rate of from the period January 1971 through June 2020. Since the main objective of the study is identifying an appropriate model for inflation series, the null and alternative hypotheses are defined in comparison of the two types of models. H0: The symmetric GARCH models better capture inflation volatility of Ethiopia. H1: The asymmetric GARCH models better capture inflation volatility of Ethiopia. The ARMA-GARCH family models were applied to capture the stylized facts of financial time series such us leptokurtic, volatility clustering and leverage effects. The mean model results show that, an ARMA (1, 2) and ARIMA (0, 1, 1) models are identified as the best fitted model for food and non-food inflation, respectively. From the estimation results of volatility model, an asymmetric TGARCH (1, 1) model with Student's t- distributional assumptions of the residual is the best model for non-food inflation. Thus, modeling of information, news of events is very significant determinants of volatility and GARCH family models are appropriate for the given series (monthly food-inflation volatility) of Ethiopia under the study period considered.
{"title":"Using Models of the GARCH Family to Estimate the Level of Food and Non-Food Inflation in Ethiopia","authors":"T. Abebe","doi":"10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.4.028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.4.028","url":null,"abstract":"An increase in inflation volatility implies higher uncertainty about future prices. As a result, producers and consumers can be affected by the increased inflation volatility, because it increases the uncertainty and the risk in the market. Thus, inflation volatility attracts the attention of researchers to find a suitable model which can predict the future conditions of the market. This study aims to fit appropriate ARMA-GARCH family models for food and non-food inflation rate of from the period January 1971 through June 2020. Since the main objective of the study is identifying an appropriate model for inflation series, the null and alternative hypotheses are defined in comparison of the two types of models. H0: The symmetric GARCH models better capture inflation volatility of Ethiopia. H1: The asymmetric GARCH models better capture inflation volatility of Ethiopia. The ARMA-GARCH family models were applied to capture the stylized facts of financial time series such us leptokurtic, volatility clustering and leverage effects. The mean model results show that, an ARMA (1, 2) and ARIMA (0, 1, 1) models are identified as the best fitted model for food and non-food inflation, respectively. From the estimation results of volatility model, an asymmetric TGARCH (1, 1) model with Student's t- distributional assumptions of the residual is the best model for non-food inflation. Thus, modeling of information, news of events is very significant determinants of volatility and GARCH family models are appropriate for the given series (monthly food-inflation volatility) of Ethiopia under the study period considered.","PeriodicalId":44290,"journal":{"name":"Margin-Journal of Applied Economic Research","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85453529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.2.011
V. Molodykh
The evolution of views on tax evasion following the introduction of limited rationality and social and psychological factors into the models of taxpayer behavior has increased the plausibility of the initial assumptions of the models, but it has made it difficult to use classical approaches based on the search for equilibrium states. The variety of behavioral responses of taxpayers due to the many factors that influence their choice has led to the fact that tax evasion has come to be considered as the result of nonlinear and dynamic interactions between the state and taxpayers. In such models, small short-term external influences can act as shocks, which leads to the emergence of a wide range of different long-term trends, the analysis of which within the framework of traditional approaches is difficult. In this regard, the purpose of this review study is to study the evolution of views on the behavior of taxpayers that has led to the emergence of new approaches to modeling tax evasion where the key role is assigned to the analysis of the impact of external shocks of various scales and nature. The research hypothesis is that modern approaches to the study of tax evasion problems make it necessary to consider the interaction of the state and taxpayers within the framework of the theory of non-equilibrium and nonlinear systems in which minor external influences can play the role of shocks, and the most promising direction of their study is the use of agent-based modeling tools. The results of the study confirm that the use of agent-based models is a promising approach for integrating existing approaches in the study of tax evasion processes. The proposed concept of building an agent-based model for analyzing the processes of tax evasion allows us to answer the question of how short-term exogenous shocks will affect the preferences of taxpayers, taking into account their individual characteristics and accepted behavioral patterns in society.
{"title":"Impact of Short-Term Exogenous Shocks on Taxpayer Behavior and Tax Evasion","authors":"V. Molodykh","doi":"10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.2.011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.2.011","url":null,"abstract":"The evolution of views on tax evasion following the introduction of limited rationality and social and psychological factors into the models of taxpayer behavior has increased the plausibility of the initial assumptions of the models, but it has made it difficult to use classical approaches based on the search for equilibrium states. The variety of behavioral responses of taxpayers due to the many factors that influence their choice has led to the fact that tax evasion has come to be considered as the result of nonlinear and dynamic interactions between the state and taxpayers. In such models, small short-term external influences can act as shocks, which leads to the emergence of a wide range of different long-term trends, the analysis of which within the framework of traditional approaches is difficult. In this regard, the purpose of this review study is to study the evolution of views on the behavior of taxpayers that has led to the emergence of new approaches to modeling tax evasion where the key role is assigned to the analysis of the impact of external shocks of various scales and nature. The research hypothesis is that modern approaches to the study of tax evasion problems make it necessary to consider the interaction of the state and taxpayers within the framework of the theory of non-equilibrium and nonlinear systems in which minor external influences can play the role of shocks, and the most promising direction of their study is the use of agent-based modeling tools. The results of the study confirm that the use of agent-based models is a promising approach for integrating existing approaches in the study of tax evasion processes. The proposed concept of building an agent-based model for analyzing the processes of tax evasion allows us to answer the question of how short-term exogenous shocks will affect the preferences of taxpayers, taking into account their individual characteristics and accepted behavioral patterns in society.","PeriodicalId":44290,"journal":{"name":"Margin-Journal of Applied Economic Research","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75242354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.3.019
R. Rogulin
Supply chain management is currently undergoing a significant digital transformation driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study is to assess the role of digital technologies and entrepreneurship in improving the efficiency of supply chains in the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. The paper considers GDP per capita as a value characterizing the degree of the country's well-being in the pre-crisis period; the LPI logistics efficiency index which determines the degree of development of the logistics environment in the country; the TIDL digital life index, which assesses the degree of development of the economy from the standpoint of digitalization; the GEI entrepreneurship index reflecting the degree of development of entrepreneurship in the country. A cluster analysis of countries by regression coefficients of the dependence of GDP per capita on the year is carried out. The result of the cluster analysis was the division of many countries into clusters, from which two economies were taken for further analysis. The work resulted in conclusions about a significant relationship between ICT and logistics efficiency, between the level of entrepreneurship and the efficiency of logistics in the pre-crisis period. It is shown that developed economies have high efficiency of logistics systems, high values of the rating of digital life and the level of entrepreneurship, which cannot be argued for countries with a level of development starting from the middle and below. The main conclusion of the study is the fact that, firstly, the active introduction of ICT makes it possible to restore supply chains destroyed by the crisis, to increase their efficiency, and secondly, the development of entrepreneurial activity in the country gives a serious impetus to the efficiency of supply chains, as a result of which businesses get a chance not only to survive amid a pandemic, but also gain significant benefits. This work is constrained by the lack of post-crisis data, so there is a huge spectrum to complement the current research on the stability and resilience of supply chains during and after pandemics.
{"title":"The Role of ICT and Entrepreneurship in forming Sustainable Supply Chains: Before and After the Covid-19 Pandemic","authors":"R. Rogulin","doi":"10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.3.019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.3.019","url":null,"abstract":"Supply chain management is currently undergoing a significant digital transformation driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study is to assess the role of digital technologies and entrepreneurship in improving the efficiency of supply chains in the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. The paper considers GDP per capita as a value characterizing the degree of the country's well-being in the pre-crisis period; the LPI logistics efficiency index which determines the degree of development of the logistics environment in the country; the TIDL digital life index, which assesses the degree of development of the economy from the standpoint of digitalization; the GEI entrepreneurship index reflecting the degree of development of entrepreneurship in the country. A cluster analysis of countries by regression coefficients of the dependence of GDP per capita on the year is carried out. The result of the cluster analysis was the division of many countries into clusters, from which two economies were taken for further analysis. The work resulted in conclusions about a significant relationship between ICT and logistics efficiency, between the level of entrepreneurship and the efficiency of logistics in the pre-crisis period. It is shown that developed economies have high efficiency of logistics systems, high values of the rating of digital life and the level of entrepreneurship, which cannot be argued for countries with a level of development starting from the middle and below. The main conclusion of the study is the fact that, firstly, the active introduction of ICT makes it possible to restore supply chains destroyed by the crisis, to increase their efficiency, and secondly, the development of entrepreneurial activity in the country gives a serious impetus to the efficiency of supply chains, as a result of which businesses get a chance not only to survive amid a pandemic, but also gain significant benefits. This work is constrained by the lack of post-crisis data, so there is a huge spectrum to complement the current research on the stability and resilience of supply chains during and after pandemics.","PeriodicalId":44290,"journal":{"name":"Margin-Journal of Applied Economic Research","volume":"64 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74322177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.4.030
N. Davidson, O. Sanaeva, E.A. Krivousova
It is essential to develop entrepreneurship in Russia, both to promote economic growth of the country and its regions, and to create jobs and opportunities for highly qualified personnel. At the same time, institutions and spatial concentration of business are known to affect enterprise activity. The aim of our research is to estimate the role of institutional factors and spatial concentration in entrepreneurial activity in Russia's regions. We use panel data for 80 Russian regions covering the period from 2008 to 2018 and apply the system generalized method of moments. Our main contribution to the research on Russian regions is that in addition to institutional factors we estimate spatial effects, while performing a comprehensive analysis of entrepreneurial activity, i.e. considering small, medium, and large enterprises. The results of the empirical analysis show that the impact of institutional factors on entrepreneurship in Russia is varied. The number of economic crimes in the region negatively and significantly affects medium and large business. Corruption is found to be significant only for large business, while the level of the banking system and the risk index positively affect firms of all sizes. We also reveal a positive impact of entrepreneurship in the neighboring regions on the entrepreneurial activity in the region under consideration and confirm that spatial effects decline with distance. We conclude that institutional and spatial factors deserve attention while elaborating and implementing economic policy measures aimed at development of entrepreneurial activity. The heterogeneity of the development of entrepreneurship in the regions indicates the need for a differentiated policy in the field of entrepreneurship. An effective policy for one region may not be suitable for other regions, so government support should differ depending on the situation and the recipient. The results of our research can be useful for designing regional economic policy.
{"title":"https://journalaer.ru/en/archive/journal/279/article/2538/","authors":"N. Davidson, O. Sanaeva, E.A. Krivousova","doi":"10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.4.030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.4.030","url":null,"abstract":"It is essential to develop entrepreneurship in Russia, both to promote economic growth of the country and its regions, and to create jobs and opportunities for highly qualified personnel. At the same time, institutions and spatial concentration of business are known to affect enterprise activity. The aim of our research is to estimate the role of institutional factors and spatial concentration in entrepreneurial activity in Russia's regions. We use panel data for 80 Russian regions covering the period from 2008 to 2018 and apply the system generalized method of moments. Our main contribution to the research on Russian regions is that in addition to institutional factors we estimate spatial effects, while performing a comprehensive analysis of entrepreneurial activity, i.e. considering small, medium, and large enterprises. The results of the empirical analysis show that the impact of institutional factors on entrepreneurship in Russia is varied. The number of economic crimes in the region negatively and significantly affects medium and large business. Corruption is found to be significant only for large business, while the level of the banking system and the risk index positively affect firms of all sizes. We also reveal a positive impact of entrepreneurship in the neighboring regions on the entrepreneurial activity in the region under consideration and confirm that spatial effects decline with distance. We conclude that institutional and spatial factors deserve attention while elaborating and implementing economic policy measures aimed at development of entrepreneurial activity. The heterogeneity of the development of entrepreneurship in the regions indicates the need for a differentiated policy in the field of entrepreneurship. An effective policy for one region may not be suitable for other regions, so government support should differ depending on the situation and the recipient. The results of our research can be useful for designing regional economic policy.","PeriodicalId":44290,"journal":{"name":"Margin-Journal of Applied Economic Research","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81721423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.2.012
D. Firsov, T. C. Chernysheva
A necessary competence in the present-day reality is the ability to analyze big data in the economy, and therefore one of the key issues is the choice of tools for such analysis. One of the most promising tools is nowcasting, which allows you to accurately determine economic changes in very short time periods. The aim of the study is to analyze successful modern practices of using nowcasting for statistical forecasting of socio-economic indicators. The hypothesis of the research lies in the assumption that nowcasting as a method of macroeconomic analysis can in the near future become a worthy alternative to traditional methods of analysis and statistical forecasting of indicators of socio-economic development, increasing the accuracy of their forecasting. The methodological basis of the study was the scientific works and applied developments of leading domestic and foreign scientists in the field of economic forecasting using statistics of search queries, as well as methods of comparative and statistical analysis, and the systematic approach. The novelty of the results obtained lies in the systematization and description of successful practices of using nowcasting and forecasting indicators using query statistics. The study highlights the basic principle of nowcasting, which is to obtain a more accurate assessment of the state of the economy as new data becomes available. It also describes the key statistical models used as tools for testing in foreign countries. As a result of the study, we highlight the importance of the analysis of statistical search queries, especially in the context of their correlation with classical survey metrics and general statistics. It is in an active phase of development, especially within the framework of the domestic forecasting practice. The results obtained can be applied both in a corporate environment and in the public sector to build macroeconomic forecasts.
{"title":"Review of Successful Practices of Applying Nowcasting in Socio-Economic Forecasting","authors":"D. Firsov, T. C. Chernysheva","doi":"10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.2.012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.2.012","url":null,"abstract":"A necessary competence in the present-day reality is the ability to analyze big data in the economy, and therefore one of the key issues is the choice of tools for such analysis. One of the most promising tools is nowcasting, which allows you to accurately determine economic changes in very short time periods. The aim of the study is to analyze successful modern practices of using nowcasting for statistical forecasting of socio-economic indicators. The hypothesis of the research lies in the assumption that nowcasting as a method of macroeconomic analysis can in the near future become a worthy alternative to traditional methods of analysis and statistical forecasting of indicators of socio-economic development, increasing the accuracy of their forecasting. The methodological basis of the study was the scientific works and applied developments of leading domestic and foreign scientists in the field of economic forecasting using statistics of search queries, as well as methods of comparative and statistical analysis, and the systematic approach. The novelty of the results obtained lies in the systematization and description of successful practices of using nowcasting and forecasting indicators using query statistics. The study highlights the basic principle of nowcasting, which is to obtain a more accurate assessment of the state of the economy as new data becomes available. It also describes the key statistical models used as tools for testing in foreign countries. As a result of the study, we highlight the importance of the analysis of statistical search queries, especially in the context of their correlation with classical survey metrics and general statistics. It is in an active phase of development, especially within the framework of the domestic forecasting practice. The results obtained can be applied both in a corporate environment and in the public sector to build macroeconomic forecasts.","PeriodicalId":44290,"journal":{"name":"Margin-Journal of Applied Economic Research","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86123466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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