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Preliminary evidence of the structural validity and measurement invariance of the Quantitative-CHecklist for Autism in Toddler (Q-CHAT) on Italian unselected children 幼儿孤独症定量检查表(Q-CHAT)对意大利未入选儿童的结构效度和测量不变性的初步证据
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-10-15 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N2P320
F. Lecciso, Annalisa Levante, F. Signore, S. Petrocchi
Abstract The Quantitative-CHecklist for Autism in Toddler (Q-CHAT) is a screening measure developed to detect the early signs of risk of Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) in children from 18-24 months of life. After a critical analysis of the validation studies that have analyzed the Q-CHAT, the present paper aimed at testing the structural validity of the questionnaire through Confirmatory Factor Analysis and determining whether it is invariant across gender. Furthermore, the study examined the internal validity of the measure, calculated the risk cut-off score, and evaluated gender differences. Five hundred forty-five questionnaires were completed by parents of children from unselected population (age M = 19.9 months;  sd = 1 month; age range = 18-21; 254 girls). Findings gave tolerable demonstration of the expected three-factor structure and measurement invariance across gender. Gender differences were also found as well as correlations among factors as a demonstration of internal validity. The risk cut-off of 43 was calculated based on the 95 th percentile of the distribution. In conclusion, the present study demonstrated preliminary findings of the validity of the Q-CHAT for Italian children. However, our findings suggested also that three items need to be reformulated because they show several psychometric problems and, after that, the factorial validity, measurement invariance, and internal validity should be re-tested. Further longitudinal studies are also needed to examine the validity criterion of the Q-CHAT to test the cut-off score.
幼儿自闭症定量检查表(Q-CHAT)是一项筛查措施,用于检测18-24个月儿童自闭症谱系障碍(ASD)风险的早期迹象。在对分析Q-CHAT的验证性研究进行批判性分析后,本文旨在通过验证性因子分析测试问卷的结构效度,并确定它是否在性别之间不变。此外,研究还检验了测量的内部效度,计算了风险临界值,并评估了性别差异。未选择人群(年龄M = 19.9个月;Sd = 1个月;年龄范围:18-21岁;254个女孩)。研究结果对预期的三因素结构和跨性别测量不变性给出了可容忍的证明。性别差异以及各因素之间的相关性也被发现,以证明内部效度。43的风险临界值是根据分布的第95个百分位数计算的。总之,本研究初步证明了Q-CHAT对意大利儿童的有效性。然而,我们的研究结果也表明,由于三个项目存在一些心理测量问题,因此需要重新制定,之后,应重新测试析因效度,测量不变性和内部效度。还需要进一步的纵向研究来检验Q-CHAT的效度标准,以检验截止分数。
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引用次数: 9
Different Estimation Methods and Joint Condence Region for the Inverse Burr Distribution Based on Progressively First-Failure Censored Sample with Application to the Nanodroplet Data 基于渐进第一失效截尾样本的Burr反分布的不同估计方法和联合收敛域及其在纳米液滴数据中的应用
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-10-14 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N2P341
H. Panahi
In this article, the point and interval estimation of parameters for an in-verse Burr distribution based on progressively rst-failure censored sampleis studied. In point estimation, the maximum likelihood and Bayesian meth-ods are developed for estimating the unknown parameters. An expectation-maximization algorithm is applied for computing the maximum likelihoodestimators. The Bayes estimates relative to both the symmetric and asym-metric loss functions are provided using the Lindley's approximation andthe Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. In interval estimation, approximate andexact condence intervals with the exact condence region for the two parameters have been introduced. Moreover, the proposed methods are carriedout to a real data set contains the spreading of nanodroplet impingementonto a solid surface in order to demonstrate the applicabilities.
本文研究了基于渐进式失效截尾样本的反向毛刺分布参数的点估计和区间估计。在点估计中,提出了极大似然法和贝叶斯法来估计未知参数。应用期望最大化算法计算最大似然估计量。使用Lindley近似和Metropolis-Hastings算法提供了相对于对称和非对称损失函数的Bayes估计。在区间估计中,引入了两个参数具有精确置信区域的近似置信区间和精确置信区间。最后,将所提方法应用于包含纳米液滴撞击扩散到固体表面的真实数据集,以验证所提方法的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
A particle swarm optimization method for variable selection in beta regression model β回归模型中变量选择的粒子群优化方法
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-10-14 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N2P508
Z. Algamal
Beta regression model has received much attention in several science fields in modeling proportions or rates data. Selecting a small subset of relevant variables from a large number of variables is an important task for building a predictive regression model. This paper proposes employing the particle swarm optimization algorithm as a variable selection method in the beta regression model with varying dispersion. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated through simulation and real data application. Results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method compared to other competitor methods including corrected Akaike information criterion, corrected Schwarz information criterion, and corrected Hannan and Quinn criterion. Thus, the proposed method can efficiently helpful as a variable selection tool in the beta regression model with varying dispersion.
贝塔回归模型在建模比例或比率数据方面受到了多个科学领域的广泛关注。从大量变量中选择相关变量的子集是构建预测回归模型的重要任务。本文提出将粒子群优化算法作为变离散贝塔回归模型的变量选择方法。通过仿真和实际数据应用对该方法的性能进行了评价。结果表明,与其他竞争对手的方法(包括修正的Akaike信息准则、修正的Schwarz信息准则以及修正的Hannan和Quinn准则)相比,该方法具有优越性。因此,所提出的方法可以有效地作为具有不同离散度的贝塔回归模型中的变量选择工具。
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引用次数: 4
Construction of tourism cycle indicator: A signalling tool for tourism market dynamics 旅游周期指标的构建:旅游市场动态的信号工具
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-10-14 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N2P477
Ann-Ni Soh, Chin-Hong Puah, M. Arip
The composite leading indicators approach has been popularised in general business and property forecasting extensively, but only rarely in a tourism framework. By utilising the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) approach in the construction of a tourism cycle indicator (TCI) for Maldives, a significant signalling attribute regarding international tourists arrivals (TA) to Maldives can be determined. This study spanned approximately two decades of data (2000-2017). Both logarithm forms of TCI and TA with seasonal adjustment are detrended by Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter. Turning points are detected using Bry-Boschan (BB) dating algorithm. This study explored the possibility of a TCI to capture the information needed for policy planning, risk monitoring and community development. Empirical findings highlighted that the forecasting ability of TCI is vital in reducing crisis burden and should be considered by Maldivians policymakers and tourism industry players.
综合领先指标方法在一般商业和房地产预测中得到了广泛的推广,但在旅游业框架中却很少。通过利用国家经济研究局(NBER)的方法构建马尔代夫的旅游周期指标(TCI),可以确定国际游客抵达马尔代夫的重要信号属性。这项研究跨越了大约20年的数据(2000-2017)。利用Hodrick-Prescott(HP)滤波器对TCI和TA的两种对数形式进行季节性调整。使用Bry-Boschan(BB)定年算法检测转折点。本研究探讨了TCI获取政策规划、风险监测和社区发展所需信息的可能性。实证研究结果强调,TCI的预测能力对于减轻危机负担至关重要,马尔代夫决策者和旅游业参与者应予以考虑。
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引用次数: 4
On the Shortest Pivotal Confidence Intervals: An Entropy Measure Technique 关于最短枢纽置信区间:一种熵度量技术
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-10-14 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N2P465
Mohammad Al-Talib
For the important role of confidence intervals in statistical inference, we present in this article the shortest pivotal confidence interval using an entropy measure called the Resistor-Average distance, two examples are used to show the application of the proposed technique which include a simulation study.
鉴于置信区间在统计推断中的重要作用,我们在本文中使用一种称为电阻平均距离的熵测度提出了最短关键置信区间,并用两个例子展示了所提出技术的应用,其中包括一项模拟研究。
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引用次数: 0
What happens when the stock markets are closed 当股票市场关闭时会发生什么
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-10-14 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N2P405
A. Mulenga, M. Faias, P. Mota, J. Pina
The normality of the log-return of stock prices is often assumed by the market players in order to use some useful results, as for instance, the Black-Scholes formula for pricing European options. However, several studies regarding different indexes have shown that the normality assumption of the returns usually fails. In this paper we analyse the normality assumption for intra-day and inter-day log-returns, comparing opening prices and/or closing prices for a large number of companies quoted in the Nasdaq Composite index. We use the Pearson's Chi-Square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, Shapiro-Wilks and Jarque-Bera goodness-of-fit tests to study the normality assumption.We find that the failure rate in the normality assumption for the log-return of stock prices is not the same for intra-day and inter-day prices, is somewhat test dependent and strongly dependent on some extreme price observations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study on the normality assumption for the log-return of stock prices dealing simultaneously with a large number of companies and normality tests, and at the same time considering various scenarios of intra-day, inter-day prices and data trimming.
股票价格对数回报的正态性通常由市场参与者假设,以便使用一些有用的结果,例如,欧洲期权定价的Black-Scholes公式。然而,关于不同指数的几项研究表明,收益率的正态性假设通常是失败的。在本文中,我们分析了日内和日间日志回报的正态性假设,比较了纳斯达克综合指数中大量公司的开盘价和/或收盘价。我们使用Pearson’s Chi Square、Kolmogorov Smirnov、Anderson Darling、Shapiro Wilks和Jarque Bera拟合优度检验来研究正态性假设。我们发现,对于日内和日间价格,股票价格对数回报的正态性假设中的失败率并不相同,在一定程度上取决于测试,并且强烈依赖于一些极端价格观察。据我们所知,这是首次对股票价格对数回归的正态性假设进行研究,同时处理大量公司和正态性测试,同时考虑日内、日间价格和数据修剪的各种场景。
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引用次数: 0
A new two-parameter estimator for the inverse Gaussian regression model with application in chemometrics 高斯逆回归模型的一种新的双参数估计量及其在化学计量学中的应用
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-10-14 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N2P453
Rehad Shamany, Nada Nazar Alobaidi, Z. Algamal
The presence of multicollinearity among the explanatory variables has undesirable effects on the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). The inverse Gaussian regression (IGR) model is a well-known model in application when the response variable positively skewed. To address the problem of multicollinearity, a two-parameter estimator is proposed (TPE). The TPE enjoys the advantage that its mean squared error (MSE) is less than MLE. The TPE is derived and the performance of this estimator is investigated under several conditions. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that the proposed estimator performs better than the MLE estimator in terms of MSE. Furthermore, a real chemometrics dataset application is utilized and the results demonstrate the excellent performance of the suggested estimator when the multicollinearity is present in IGR model.
解释变量之间多重共线性的存在会对极大似然估计量(MLE)产生不良影响。逆高斯回归(IGR)模型是响应变量正偏斜时的一个广为人知的应用模型。为了解决多重共线性问题,提出了一种双参数估计器(TPE)。TPE的优点是其均方误差(MSE)小于MLE。推导了TPE,并在几种条件下研究了该估计器的性能。蒙特卡罗仿真结果表明,该估计器在MSE方面优于MLE估计器。此外,利用一个实际的化学计量数据集应用,结果表明,当IGR模型中存在多重共线性时,所提出的估计器具有良好的性能。
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引用次数: 13
Power Length-Biased Suja Distribution: Properties and Application 功率长度偏置Suja分布:性质及应用
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-10-14 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N2P429
A. Al-Omari, Khaldoon M. Alhyasat, K. Ibrahim, M. Bakar
In this paper, a new distribution called weighted size biased two-parameterAkash distribution (WSBTPAD) is proposed. The WSBTPAD is a newmodication of the size biased two-parameter Akash distribution. The mainstatistical properties of the WSBTPAD are derived and proved. These prop-erties include the moments, particularly the rth moment, moment generatingfunction, harmonic mean, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves as well as the Giniindex. Also, the mean deviations of the population mean and median andthe Renyi entropy are presented. The reliability analysis of the random vari-able following WSBTPAD random variable are discussed. The method ofmaximum likelihood estimation is considered for estimating the parametersof the distribution. The distribution of order statistics from the WSBTPADare provided.
本文提出了一种新的加权尺寸偏置双参数akash分布(WSBTPAD)。WSBTPAD是对尺寸偏置双参数Akash分布的一种新改进。推导并证明了WSBTPAD的主要统计特性。这些性质包括矩,特别是第n矩,矩生成函数,调和平均值,邦费罗尼曲线和洛伦兹曲线以及基尼指数。并给出了总体均值与中位数的平均偏差和Renyi熵。讨论了WSBTPAD随机变量之后的随机变量的可靠性分析。采用极大似然估计方法对分布参数进行估计。提供了来自wsbtpad4的订单统计信息的分布。
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引用次数: 12
Do building permits act as a leading indicator of Italy short-term production in construction? 建筑许可证是意大利建筑业短期生产的主要指标吗?
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-10-14 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N2P416
G. Bruno, Carolina Corea
Index of production in construction and building permits are two indica- tors used to describe the short-term evolution of the construction sector. In particular, the former measures the level of activity in terms of the sector output, whereas the latter are meant to anticipate production in construction in the very near future, as they represent the administrative applications to start building activity. Nevertheless, for a number of reasons to be detected, building permits do not always act as a leading indicator of the construction sector short-term performance. To investigate whether there are any leading- lagging relations between these two variables, a descriptive analysis based on cross-correlations has been preliminarily carried out and then supplemented by the application of a VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model, used to analyse Granger causality within a cointegrated system of the two variables.
建筑业生产指数和建筑许可证是用来描述建筑业短期发展的两个指标。特别是,前者以部门产出衡量活动水平,而后者旨在预测不久的将来建筑业的生产,因为它们代表了开始建筑活动的行政申请。然而,由于一些有待发现的原因,建筑许可证并不总是建筑业短期业绩的主要指标。为了研究这两个变量之间是否存在任何超前-滞后关系,初步进行了基于互相关的描述性分析,然后应用VAR(向量自回归)模型进行补充,用于分析两个变量的协整系统中的Granger因果关系。
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引用次数: 0
High performance of professional basketball play- ers and the settings to measure their regularity: evidence from the Spanish ACB League 职业篮球运动员的高水平表现及其规律性测量:来自西班牙ACB联赛的证据
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-10-14 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N2P362
R. Salmerón, S. Gómez-Haro
Obtaining relevant information about the performance of sports teams and players involves an ongoing analysis of factors that affect individual performance, including the use of tools that help estimate the athletic performance of professional players and improve decision making by managers and coaches. The aim of this work is to establish which statistics for basketball players discriminate between high and low performance and regularity using a performance-regularity index. The sample comprised players from the Spanish professional basketball league, the ACB League during the 2014-2015. We divided the sample into players with low, medium and high performance and regularity, and a discriminant analysis associated high numbers of rebounds, assists and steals with high performance and regularity and higher numbers of 3-point shots, turnovers and fouls with low performance and regularity. These results should help coaches and sports managers to design templates and sports gambling strategies that improve performance in their teams.
获得有关运动队和运动员表现的相关信息需要对影响个人表现的因素进行持续分析,包括使用有助于评估职业运动员运动表现并改进经理和教练决策的工具。这项工作的目的是建立篮球运动员使用表现规律性指数来区分高表现和低表现以及规律性的统计数据。样本包括2014-2015年西班牙职业篮球联赛ACB联赛的球员。我们将样本分为低、中、高表现和规律性的球员,并进行判别分析,将高表现和规则性的高篮板、助攻和抢断数与低表现和规律的高三分球、失误和犯规数联系起来。这些结果应该有助于教练和体育经理设计模板和体育博彩策略,以提高团队的表现。
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引用次数: 0
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Electronic Journal of Applied Statistical Analysis
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