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Student mobility in higher education: Sicilian outflow network and chain migrations 高等教育中的学生流动:西西里外流网络和链式迁移
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-12-15 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N4P774
V. Genova, M. Tumminello, M. Enea, F. Aiello, M. Attanasio
The Italian public universities are subsidised within a competitive framework that awards excellence, efficiency, and the capacity of universities to attract students from Italian regions other than its own. However, repeated cuts to public spending has increased the well-known Italian North-South divide. The most important student mobility (SM) flow is from the Southern to the Central-Northern regions--a phenomenon that has been magnified by an increasing number of outgoing students from Sicily over the last decade. In this paper, we rely upon micro-data of university enrolment and students' personal records for three cohorts of freshmen, in order to investigate preferential patterns of SM from Sicily toward universities in other regions. Indeed, our main goal is to eventually reveal the existence of chain migrations, through which students from a particular geographical area move towards a particular destination. We consider 38 clusters aggregating the 390 Sicilian municipalities, based on geographical proximity and socio-economic criteria. The data from each cohort is represented as a tripartite network with three sets of nodes, namely, clusters of Sicilian municipalities, students, and universities. The tripartite network is projected in a bipartite weighted network of clusters and universities, which is, then, filtered, in order to obtain a statistically validated bipartite network (SBVN). The SBVNs of the three cohorts suggest the existence and evolution of chain migration patterns over time, which are also gender specific.
意大利公立大学在一个竞争框架内获得补贴,该框架旨在奖励优秀、高效和大学吸引来自意大利以外地区学生的能力。然而,一再削减公共开支加剧了众所周知的意大利南北分歧。最重要的学生流动(SM)是从南部到中北部地区——过去十年中,西西里岛越来越多的毕业生加剧了这一现象。在本文中,我们依靠三组新生的大学入学和学生个人记录的微观数据,来调查西西里岛SM对其他地区大学的优惠模式。事实上,我们的主要目标是最终揭示连锁移民的存在,通过连锁移民,来自特定地理区域的学生走向特定目的地。根据地理位置和社会经济标准,我们考虑了38个集群,共有390个西西里市。每个队列的数据被表示为一个三方网络,有三组节点,即西西里市政当局、学生和大学的集群。三方网络被投影在集群和大学的二分加权网络中,然后对其进行过滤,以获得统计验证的二分网络(SBVN)。三个队列的SBVN表明,链迁移模式随着时间的推移而存在和演变,这也是特定于性别的。
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引用次数: 9
The role of employability in students during academic experience: a preliminary study through PLS-PM technique 就业能力在学生学术经历中的作用:PLS-PM技术的初步研究
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-12-15 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N4P720
F. Signore, A. Catalano, E. Carlo, Andreina Madaro, Emanuela Ingusci
In the current socio-economic scenario, affected by constant changes inthe labor market, employability found greater echo. Universities frequently adopt strategies aimed at improving the employability and usefulness of theareas of competence, motivation and interests of young graduates and workers. In this study a preliminary research was conducted on a sample of 84 university students who attended a consulting service at the University of Salento, the Career Service Office. The average age of the sample was 26.74 years (DS = 4.95), 63% women, 71.4% unemployed. The tool used was a questionnaire-interview. The aim of this research was to assess the role of employability and its influence on personal variables and active work behaviours, as job searching activities. Analyses were conducted through PLS-PM technique, a non-parametrical SEM modeling, and demonstrated that employability affects job search and personal efficacy, while personal efficacy had a non signicant relation with job search behaviours.
在当前的社会经济形势下,受劳动力市场不断变化的影响,就业能力得到了更大的回应。大学经常采取旨在提高年轻毕业生和工人的就业能力和能力、动机和兴趣的有用性的战略。在这项研究中,对84名参加萨伦托大学职业服务办公室咨询服务的大学生进行了初步研究。样本的平均年龄为26.74岁(DS=4.95),63%为女性,71.4%为失业者。使用的工具是问卷访谈。这项研究的目的是评估就业能力的作用及其对个人变量和积极工作行为的影响,作为求职活动。通过PLS-PM技术(一种非参数SEM建模)进行分析,结果表明,就业能力影响求职和个人效能,而个人效能与求职行为无显著关系。
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引用次数: 14
An investigation of mobility of Italian Ph. Doctors 意大利博士流动性调查
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-12-15 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N4P748
Gabriele Ruiu, N. Fadda, A. Ezza, Massimo Esposito
Migration is a permanent phenomenon rooted in history and recently involves high-skilled workers (HSWs). Among them, a crucial role is played by PhDs. HSWs face the risk to not find a job matching their skills and they can opt to accept to be overeducated for the job or move to another country or region. Mobility of HSW can be interpreted as a positive issue that can help to match jobs and skills. However, the emergence of a clear path between areas of countries or regions (e.g. from south to north Italy) highlights the risks of a drain of human capital from areas with low development to more developed ones. In this paper, we focus on a category of HSWs who have been almost neglected by the literature, the PhDs. The aim of the paper is to shed light on the mobility pattern of Italian PhDs, paying attention to PhDs from Southern Italy. This aim will be pursued by using microdata from the 2014 ISTAT Survey on the professional conditions of Italian PhDs at 4 and 6 years after the end of their studies.This work highlights that Southern PhDs have higher probability to move to other area of the countries, while Northern PhDs seem to prefer to move abroad thus confirming previous studies which identified a similar pattern for graduates. While the Northern part of the country compensate the drain of human capital with the mobility from the other part of Italy, the Southern face a relevant drain of ‘talents’.
移民是一种植根于历史的永久现象,最近涉及高技能工人。其中,博士发挥着至关重要的作用。HSW面临着找不到与其技能相匹配的工作的风险,他们可以选择接受过高的教育,或者搬到另一个国家或地区。HSW的流动性可以被解释为一个积极的问题,有助于匹配工作和技能。然而,国家或地区之间出现了一条清晰的道路(例如,从意大利南部到北部),突显了人力资本从低发展地区流失到更发达地区的风险。在本文中,我们关注的是一类几乎被文献所忽视的HSW,即博士。本文的目的是揭示意大利博士的流动模式,关注来自意大利南部的博士。这一目标将通过使用2014年ISTAT关于意大利博士研究结束后4年和6年的专业条件调查的微观数据来实现。这项研究强调,南方博士更有可能移居其他地区的国家,而北方博士似乎更喜欢移居国外,从而证实了之前的研究,这些研究为毕业生确定了类似的模式。虽然该国北部地区用来自意大利其他地区的流动来弥补人力资本的流失,但南部地区面临着相关的“人才”流失。
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引用次数: 1
Forecasting an explosive time series 预测爆炸性的时间序列
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-11-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N3P674
K. SureshChandra, S. Prabhakaran
Forecasting is an important exercise in Time series analysis. For a statio-nary time series, there are theoretically strong forecasting methods which canprovide most accurate forecasts for the future (Karlin and Taylor (1975)).For most non stationary time series Box Jenkins methodology is a usefulforecasting technique. Essentially, the Box Jenkins methodology assumesthat any non stationarity time series can be conveniently modeled as anAutoregressive Intregrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model with sucientnumber of unit roots in the linear stochastic dierence equation generatingthe time series. The non stationarity in such time series is then removed bysuccessively dierencing of the series until one obtains a stationary series,for which optimal forecasts can be computed. The forecasts for the originalseries are then computed by `inverting' the dierence operators that wereused ( Makridakis et al. (1998)) on the forecasts computed for the statio-nary series. The main objective of this study is to demonstrate that the BoxJenkins methodology is not useful, especially in large time series, when thenon stationarity in the time series is due to `explosive' roots. An alternativemethod is proposed in such a situation and its performance is assessed bothon a simulated as well as on a real life data.
预测是时间序列分析中的一项重要工作。对于一个平稳的时间序列,有理论上强大的预测方法,可以提供最准确的预测未来(Karlin和Taylor(1975))。对于大多数非平稳时间序列,Box Jenkins方法是一种有用的预测技术。从本质上讲,Box Jenkins方法假设任何非平稳时间序列都可以方便地建模为自回归积分移动平均(ARIMA)模型,该模型具有线性随机差分方程中产生时间序列的单位根的数量。然后通过序列的连续差分去除这些时间序列中的非平稳性,直到得到一个平稳序列,从而可以计算出最优的预测。原始序列的预测然后通过“反转”对静态序列计算的预测所使用的差分算子(Makridakis et al.(1998))来计算。本研究的主要目的是证明BoxJenkins方法是无用的,特别是在大时间序列中,当时间序列的非平稳性是由于“爆炸”根时。在这种情况下,提出了一种替代方法,并对其性能进行了模拟和实际数据的评估。
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引用次数: 0
Linear Systematic Sampling with Unequal Sampling Intervals in the Presence of Linear Trend 存在线性趋势时具有不等采样间隔的线性系统采样
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-11-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N3P705
J. Subramani
The present paper deals with the linear systematic sampling with unequal sampling intervals in the presence of linear trend among the population values. As a result, explicit expressions for the linear systematic sample means with different random starts in a labelled population with linear trend for a pre-assigned fixed sample size  and the population size together its variance are obtained. The efficiencies of the proposed linear systematic sampling with that of simple random sampling without replacement, linear systematic sampling and diagonal systematic sampling schemes are assessed algebraically and also for certain natural populations. It is observed that the proposed linear systematic sampling performs better than the sampling schemes mentioned above.
本文研究了在总体值之间存在线性趋势的情况下,抽样间隔不等的线性系统抽样问题。得到了预先给定的固定样本量下具有线性趋势的标记总体中不同随机起点的线性系统样本均值及其方差的显式表达式。对所提出的线性系统抽样方案与无置换的简单随机抽样方案、线性系统抽样方案和对角系统抽样方案的效率进行了代数评价,并对某些自然种群进行了评价。结果表明,所提出的线性系统采样方案比上述的采样方案具有更好的性能。
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引用次数: 0
Inference on P(X less than Y) in bivariate Lomax model 二元Lomax模型中P(X小于Y)的推断
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-11-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N3P619
Rola M. Musleh, Amal Helu, H. Samawi
In this article we consider the estimation of the stress-strength reliability parameter, R = P(X < Y ) when the stress (X) and the strength (Y ) are dependent random variables distributed as bivariate Lomax model. The maximum likelihood, moment and Bayes estimators are derived. We obtained Bayes estimators using symmetric and asymmetric loss functions via squared error loss and Linex loss functions respectively. Since there are no closed forms for the Bayes estimators, we used an approximation based on Lindley's method to obtain Bayes estimators under these loss functions. An extensive computer simulation is used to compare the performance of the proposed estimators using three criteria, namely, relative bias, mean squared error and Pitman nearness (PN) probability. Real data application is provided to illustrate the performance of our proposed estimators.
在本文中,当应力(X)和强度(Y)是分布为双变量Lomax模型的因随机变量时,我们考虑了应力-强度可靠性参数R=P(X
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引用次数: 0
Voting-based Approach in Consensus Clustering through q-fold cross-validation 基于投票的q-fold交叉验证共识聚类方法
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-11-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N3P657
Norin Rahayu Shamsuddin, N. Mahat
Over the past 50 years, extensive research have been carried out to understand how clustering work in classifying data into meaningful groups. Various clustering algorithms and cluster validity indexes have been proposedand improvised to obtain the best clustering result. However, there is noclustering method that is able to give consistent results on similar structureof a dataset. An alternative mechanism to control the variation of resultsand improved the quality of traditional clustering is through consensus clustering. In this paper, we generate multiple partitions of consensus clusteringthrough a resampling method by employing q-fold cross-validation approach.q-fold cross-validation approach is able to speed-up the consensus partitionsprocedure with qth iterations. To encounter with different number of cluster labels occur in the partitions, we employed voting-based method in the second stage of consensus clustering to obtain optimal consensus partition.The performance of optimal consensus partitions is evaluated from Silhouetteplot
在过去的50年里,已经进行了广泛的研究,以了解聚类如何将数据分类为有意义的组。为了获得最佳聚类结果,人们提出并改进了各种聚类算法和聚类有效性指标。然而,没有一种聚类方法能够在数据集的相似结构上给出一致的结果。另一种控制结果变化和提高传统聚类质量的机制是通过共识聚类。本文采用q-fold交叉验证方法,通过重采样方法生成共识聚类的多个分区。q倍交叉验证方法能够通过QTH迭代加速共识划分过程。针对分区中出现不同数量的聚类标签的情况,我们在共识聚类的第二阶段采用基于投票的方法来获得最优共识分区。通过剪影图对最优共识分区的性能进行了评价
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引用次数: 0
Counting the unmarked: Estimating animal population using count data 计数未标记:使用计数数据估计动物种群
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-11-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N3P604
S. Gubbi, Srikanth R. Seshadri, V. Kumara, K. SureshChandra
Understanding population parameters are important tools for wildlife management, and one of the key objectives of the ecological research. Motion sensor cameras are a widely used tool to estimate abundance and densities of species that are identifiable based on the natural markings on their bodies. Though camera trapping provides information such as count data, on species that are not individually identifiable, estimating population size using conventional capture-recapture methodologies is not possible hindering estimating population information of several wildlife species. However, recent methodologies help use camera trapping data to bridge this gap. Here we extend the model of Chandler and Royle (2013), with suitable modifications, and used camera trap detection data to estimate abundance and density of eight wild-prey, and five domestic prey species of leopards ( Panthera pardus fusca ). In this context, a new procedure has been proposed, based on grouping of the count data, which is useful in cases of large encounters. The current model should apply widely to a range of other unmarked wildlife species such as dholes, lions, golden jackal, Indian fox, ratel, to name a few, that could help understand prey-predator relationships, competition, trophic interactions, species interactions and other similar ecological questions. The methodology could also reduce costs, and maximise the utilisation of existing camera trapping data. The methodology helps understanding population parameters of several endangered, unmarked species to draw up conservation strategies whose estimates are currently largely based on educational guess.
了解种群参数是野生动物管理的重要工具,也是生态学研究的关键目标之一。运动传感器相机是一种广泛使用的工具,用于估计物种的丰度和密度,这些物种是根据它们身体上的自然标记来识别的。虽然摄像机陷阱提供了诸如计数数据之类的信息,但对于无法单独识别的物种,使用传统的捕获-再捕获方法估计种群大小并不妨碍估计几种野生动物物种的种群信息。然而,最近的方法有助于使用相机捕获数据来弥补这一差距。本文对Chandler和Royle(2013)的模型进行了扩展,并进行了适当的修改,利用相机陷阱探测数据对豹子(Panthera pardus fusca)的8种野生猎物和5种家养猎物的丰度和密度进行了估算。在这方面,提出了一种基于计数数据分组的新程序,这在大型遭遇的情况下是有用的。目前的模型应该广泛适用于其他一系列未标记的野生动物物种,如洞、狮子、金豺、印度狐、鼠,仅举几例,这可以帮助理解捕食者关系、竞争、营养相互作用、物种相互作用和其他类似的生态问题。该方法还可以降低成本,并最大限度地利用现有的相机捕获数据。该方法有助于了解几种濒危、未标记物种的种群参数,以制定保护策略,其估计目前主要基于教育猜测。
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引用次数: 1
An Application of Transformed Distribution: Length of Stay in Hospitals 转化分布在医院住院时间中的应用
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-11-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N3P691
S. Harini, M. Subbiah, M. R. Srinivasan, M. Gallo
Length of stay in hospitals are mostly characterized as asymmetric, right skewed and leptokurtic in nature. Earlier studies have considered parametric distributions like gamma, Pareto, lognormal for studying length of stay of patients in hospitals. However, in this study we have proposed transformed distributions to be the best choice for characterizing the length of stay. For this study, we have considered paediatric asthma dataset and identified that transformed Weibull-Pareto as the best fit. For a comparative purpose we have also provided the results of gamma, lognormal, and Pareto distribution. Maximum likelihood approach is considered to estimate the unknown parameters of the Transformed distribution followed by goodness of fit tests to examine the suitability of the fitted distributions. The results provide a direction for modelling the length of stay in hospitals due to different medical problems which require hospitalization.
住院时间主要表现为不对称、右倾和钩端性。早期的研究考虑了参数分布,如伽马,帕累托,对数正态分布来研究患者在医院的住院时间。然而,在这项研究中,我们提出转换分布是表征停留时间长短的最佳选择。在本研究中,我们考虑了儿童哮喘数据集,并确定转化Weibull-Pareto是最适合的。为了便于比较,我们还提供了伽玛分布、对数正态分布和帕累托分布的结果。采用最大似然法估计变换后分布的未知参数,然后采用拟合优度检验检验拟合分布的适宜性。研究结果为建立因不同医疗问题而需要住院治疗的住院时间模型提供了方向。
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引用次数: 0
A Statistical Model for the Self-evaluation of Teacher Satisfaction in School Management: a Study in the Italian Secondary School 学校管理中教师满意度自我评价的统计模型——以意大利中学为例
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2019-11-20 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V12N3P637
P. Sarnacchiaro, S. Scippacercola, Pasqualina Malafronte
Job Satisfaction is a set of favorable or unfavorable feelings and emotions linked to how employees view their work environment, and supervisors need to be attentive to employee satisfaction levels. If employees are not satisfied with their jobs, the overall progress of the entire system is affected. This paper reports on a teacher job satisfaction study that examined a sample of 362 teachers. The Common Assessment Framework & Education questionnaire was  used to collect data. The aim of the study is to identify, by a Structural equation model, the factors that most influence Job Satisfaction taking into account age,  total years of service and gender. The results underlines a significant difference between male/female in Job Satisfaction model.
工作满意度是一组与员工如何看待工作环境有关的有利或不利的感觉和情绪,主管需要关注员工的满意度水平。如果员工对自己的工作不满意,整个系统的整体进度就会受到影响。本文报告了一项教师工作满意度研究,对362名教师进行了抽样调查。采用《共同评估框架与教育问卷》收集数据。本研究的目的是通过一个结构方程模型,在考虑了年龄、总服务年限和性别的情况下,确定最影响工作满意度的因素。结果表明,男性/女性在工作满意度模型上存在显著差异。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
Electronic Journal of Applied Statistical Analysis
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