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Properties of the Correlation Matrix Implied by a Recursive Path Model using the Finite Iterative Method 用有限迭代法求递归路径模型中相关矩阵的性质
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2020-10-14 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V13N2P413
M’barek Iaousse, Zouhair Elhadri, M. Hanafi, P. Dolce, Y. Elkettani
The present paper announces and demonstrates some useful properties of the impliedcorrelation matrix built by the Finite Iterative Method (Elhadri and Hanafi,2015, 2016; Elhadri et al., 2019) The most important property is that the impliedcorrelation matrix is affine for each of its parameters. In other words, the firstderivative with respect to each parameter does not depend on this parameter. Moreover,two properties affirm that the first and the second derivatives can be builtiteratively using the previous property. The final property shows that the secondderivatives with respect to every pair ofparameters in the same structural equationare null. These properties are very important in the sense that they can be used toconstruct a new computational approach to estimate recursive model parameters.These findings can be exploited in the estimation stage implementation, especiallyin the computation of the Newton Raphson algorithm to make the first and the secondderivatives of the discrepancy function more explicit and simplistic.
本文宣布并证明了有限迭代法建立的隐相关矩阵的一些有用性质(Elhadri和Hanafi,20152016;Elhadri et al.,2019)。最重要的性质是隐相关矩阵对其每个参数都是仿射的。换句话说,关于每个参数的一阶导数不取决于这个参数。此外,有两个性质证实了一阶导数和二阶导数可以使用前面的性质重复构建。最后的性质表明,对于同一结构方程中的每一对参数的二阶导数为零。这些性质非常重要,因为它们可以用来构建一种新的计算方法来估计递归模型参数。这些发现可以在估计阶段的实现中加以利用,特别是在Newton-Raphson算法的计算中,使差异函数的一阶和二阶导数更加明确和简单。
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引用次数: 4
Empowering Detection of Malicious Social Bots and Content Spammers on Twitter by Sentiment Analysis 授权检测恶意社交机器人和内容垃圾邮件在推特上的情感分析
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2020-10-14 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V13N2P375
Farideh Tavazoee, D. Buscaldi, F. Mola, C. Conversano
The role of Twitter as a platform to share opinions has been growing in the recent years especially since it has been widely used by public personae such as politicians, personalities of the show business, and other influencers to communicate with the public. For these reasons, the use of social bots to manipulate information and influence people's opinions is also growing. In this paper, we use a supervised classification model to distinguish bots from legitimate users on Twitter. More specifically, we show the importance of sentiment features in bot-human account detection. Moreover, we evaluate our detection model by testing on Russian bot accounts who are the most recent set of social bots that appeared on Twitter to show that these techniques may be easily adapted to work on new, unseen types of social bots.
近年来,Twitter作为一个分享观点的平台的作用越来越大,尤其是自从政治家、演艺界人士和其他有影响力的人广泛使用Twitter与公众交流以来。由于这些原因,使用社交机器人来操纵信息和影响人们的观点也越来越多。在本文中,我们使用监督分类模型来区分Twitter上的机器人和合法用户。更具体地说,我们展示了情感特征在机器人-人类账户检测中的重要性。此外,我们通过测试俄罗斯机器人账户来评估我们的检测模型,这些账户是Twitter上出现的最新一组社交机器人,以表明这些技术可能很容易适用于新的、看不见的社交机器人类型。
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引用次数: 0
Discrimination and Classification model from Multivariate Exponential Power Distribution 多元指数幂分布的判别与分类模型
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2020-10-14 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V13N2P284
A. Olosunde, A. T. Soyinkab
It is common to assume a normal distribution when discriminating and classifying a multivariate data based on some attributes. But when such data is lighter or heavier in both tails than the normal distribution, then the  probability of misclassification becomes higher giving unreliable result. This study proposed multivariate exponential power distribution a family of elliptically contoured model as underlining model for discrimination and classification. The distribution has a shape parameter which regulate the tail of the symmetric distribution to mitigate the problem of both lighter and heavier tails data, this generalizes the normal distribution and thus will definitely gives a lower misclassification error in discrimination and classification. The resulting discriminant model was compared with fisher linear discriminant function when applying to real data.
当基于某些属性对多变量数据进行判别和分类时,通常假设正态分布。但当这样的数据在两个尾部都比正态分布轻或重时,错误分类的概率就会变得更高,从而给出不可靠的结果。本研究提出多元指数幂分布一类椭圆轮廓模型作为判别和分类的强调模型。该分布具有一个形状参数,该形状参数调节对称分布的尾部,以减轻较轻和较重尾部数据的问题,这推广了正态分布,因此在判别和分类中肯定会给出较低的误分类误差。将所得到的判别模型与fisher线性判别函数应用于实际数据时进行了比较。
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引用次数: 1
The security mortgage valuation in a stochastic perspective 随机视角下的证券抵押估值
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2020-02-05 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V13N1P256
Giovanna Di Lorenzo, A. Orlando, Massimo Politano
The reverse mortgage market has been expanding rapidly in developed economies in recent years. Reverse mortgages provide an alternative source of funding for retirement income and health care costs. Increase in life expectancies and decrease in the real income at retirement continue to worry the those who are retired or close to retirement. Therefore, financial products that help to alleviate the “risk of living longer” continue to be attractive among the retirees. Reverse mortgage contracts involve a range of risks from the insurer’s perspective. When the outstanding balance exceeds the housing value before the loan is settled, the insurer suffers an exposure to crossover risk induced by three risk factors: interest rates, house prices and mortality rates. We analyse the combined impact of these risks on the pricing and the risk profile of reverse mortgage loans in a stochastic interest-mortality-house pricing model. Our results show shows  that pricing of reverse mortgages loans does not accurately assess the risks underwritten by reverse mortgages lenders and that failing to take into account mortality improvements substantially underestimates the longevity risk involved in reverse mortgage loans.
近年来,发达经济体的反向抵押贷款市场迅速扩张。反向抵押贷款为退休收入和医疗保健费用提供了另一种资金来源。预期寿命的增加和退休时实际收入的减少继续让那些退休或即将退休的人感到担忧。因此,有助于缓解“长寿风险”的金融产品在退休人员中仍然很有吸引力。从保险公司的角度来看,反向抵押贷款合同涉及一系列风险。当未偿余额超过贷款结算前的房屋价值时,保险公司将面临由三个风险因素引起的交叉风险:利率、房价和死亡率。我们在随机利率死亡率房屋定价模型中分析了这些风险对反向抵押贷款定价和风险状况的综合影响。我们的研究结果表明,反向抵押贷款的定价并不能准确评估反向抵押贷款机构承保的风险,如果没有考虑死亡率的提高,就会大大低估反向抵押贷款所涉及的寿命风险。
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引用次数: 0
Outlier detection through mixtures with an improper component 通过含有不适当成分的混合物检测异常值
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2020-02-05 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V13N1P146
P. N. Inverardi, E. Taufer
The  paper  investigates the use of a finite  mixture model with an additional uniform density for outlier detection and robust estimation.  The main contribution of this paper lies in the  analysis of the properties of the improper component and the introduction of a modified EM algorithm  which, beyond providing the maximum likelihood estimates of the mixture parameters, endogenously provides a numerical value for the density of the uniform distribution used for the improper component. The mixing proportion of outliers may be known or unknown.  Applications to robust estimation and outlier detection will be discussed with particular attention to the normal mixture case.
本文研究了使用具有额外均匀密度的有限混合模型进行异常值检测和鲁棒估计。本文的主要贡献在于分析了不适当成分的性质,并引入了一种改进的EM算法,该算法除了提供混合物参数的最大似然估计外,还内生地为不适当成分使用的均匀分布密度提供了一个数值。异常值的混合比例可能是已知的,也可能是未知的。将特别关注正态混合情况来讨论稳健估计和异常值检测的应用。
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引用次数: 1
A statistical modelling of the visual acuity measurement and its multiple test procedure 视力测量的统计模型及其多重测试程序
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2020-02-05 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V13N1P1
Norihiro Mita, H. Sasaki, K. Kani, A. Tabuchi, H. Hara
To establish the computer assisted system of the visual acuity test, we propose a statistical modelling of the visual acuity measurement and its multiple test procedure. The psychometric functions for individual patients are produced by the logistic regression combined with the guessing rate. We adopt test statistics based on (i) psychometric functions (the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel method) and (ii) psychophysical thresholds (the delta method). The multiple comparisons are performed by the step-down procedure with Ryan-Einot-Gabriel-Welsch (REGW) significance levels. To show the practical effectiveness of our system, we present a numerical example of four patient groups.
为了建立计算机辅助视力测试系统,我们提出了一种视力测量的统计模型及其多重测试程序。个体患者的心理测量函数是通过逻辑回归与猜测率相结合产生的。我们采用基于(i)心理测量函数(Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel方法)和(ii)心理物理阈值(delta方法)的测试统计。多重比较通过降压程序与Ryan Einot Gabriel Welsch(REGW)显著性水平进行。为了显示我们的系统的实际有效性,我们给出了四个患者组的数值示例。
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引用次数: 1
Optional analyses of crossover trials having two treatments and a placebo 有两种治疗和一种安慰剂的交叉试验的可选分析
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2020-02-05 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V13N1P16
J. Divecha, Jigneshkumar Gondaliya
The assumption of carryover effects is unavoidable due to the very nature of crossover designs. Even in case of crossover design with washout period, the hypothesis of no carryover effect should be tested and established. On the other hand, this assumption makes the analysis difficult and potentially biased or inefficient in case of two treatment two period crossover design. For a reasonable estimation, experimenters are advocated to employ a two period three treatment crossover designs, or a three period two treatment crossover design. In this article, we present optional analyses of a uniform three period three treatment crossover design, consisting of a placebo and two active treatments. We develop a test for detecting presence of carryover effects which directs experimenter for a proper analysis of his crossover trial. We present ANOVA for each of the three possible carryover models, that both, single, or none of the active treatments has carryover effect, and illustrate through an example.
由于交叉设计的本质,结转效应的假设是不可避免的。即使是有洗脱期的交叉设计,也要检验和建立无结转效应的假设。另一方面,这种假设使分析变得困难,并且在两种治疗两期交叉设计的情况下可能存在偏差或效率低下。为了合理估计,建议实验者采用两期三处理交叉设计,或三期两处理交叉设计。在本文中,我们提出了统一的三期三治疗交叉设计的可选分析,包括安慰剂和两种积极治疗。我们开发了一种检测遗留效应存在的测试,指导实验者对他的交叉试验进行适当的分析。我们对三种可能的结转模型中的每一种都提出了方差分析,即两种、单一或没有一种积极的治疗都具有结转效果,并通过一个例子来说明。
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引用次数: 3
Modelling the Change of White Blood Cell on Colorectal Cancer Treatment Using Probit Regression Probit回归法模拟大肠癌癌症治疗过程中白细胞的变化
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2020-02-05 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V13N1P75
H. Kuswanto, Nesia Balqis, H. Ohwada, S.F. Toha
Colorectal cancer has become one of the cancer types with high incidence rate all over the world. Various eorts have been carried out to nd a way to decrease the risk of cancer. Chemotherapy using 5-Fluorouracil (5-FU) is one of the common cancer treatments that is expected to drive the white blood cell (WBC) level into the normal level. This research investigates the factors inuencing the change of WBC level in cancer patients treated with 5-FU combined with physical treatment in the form of footsteps. By focusing on the change of WBC level, i.e. decreasing or increasing the WBC level as the response, probit regression was applied to the data measured from 28 cancer patients who have undergone 14 days of treatment. The probit regression found that age of the patient, average number of daily footsteps and the dose of 5-FU signcantly inuence the change of WBC. The regression is able to classify the case with a satisfactory results, i.e. 85.71% classication accuracy. This nding can be a guideline to better treat the colorectal cancer patient to reach a normal WBC.
结直肠癌已成为世界范围内发病率较高的癌症类型之一。为了找到降低患癌症风险的方法,人们做了各种各样的努力。使用5-氟尿嘧啶(5-FU)化疗是常见的癌症治疗方法之一,有望将白细胞(WBC)水平提高到正常水平。本研究探讨5-FU联合步行形式的物理治疗对肿瘤患者白细胞水平变化的影响因素。通过关注WBC水平的变化,即降低或增加WBC水平作为反应,对28例接受治疗14天的癌症患者的数据进行probit回归。probit回归发现患者的年龄、平均每日步数和5-FU的剂量对WBC的变化有显著影响。回归能够对案例进行分类,分类准确率为85.71%,结果令人满意。这一结论可为更好地治疗结直肠癌患者达到正常白细胞提供指导。
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引用次数: 0
Canonical Correlation Analysis of Principal Component Scores for Multiple-set Random Vectors 多组随机向量主成分得分的典型相关分析
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2020-02-05 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V13N1P47
T. Ogura, H. Murakami
Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is often used to analyze correlations between the variables of two random vectors. As an extension of CCA, multiple-set canonical correlation analysis (MCCA) was proposed to analyze correlations between multiple-set random vectors. However, sometimes interpreting MCCA results may not be as straightforward as interpreting CCA results. Principal CCA (PCCA), which uses CCA between two sets of principal component (PC) scores, was proposed to address these difficulties in CCA. We propose multiple-set PCCA (MPCCA) by applying the idea to multiple-set of PC scores. PCs are ranked in descending order according to the amount of information they contain. Therefore, it is enough to use only a few PC scores from the top instead of using all PC scores. Decreasing the number of PC makes it easy to interpret the result. We confirmed the effectiveness of MPCCA using simulation studies and a practical example.
典型相关分析(CCA)通常用于分析两个随机向量的变量之间的相关性。作为CCA的扩展,提出了多集规范相关分析(MCCA)来分析多集随机向量之间的相关性。然而,有时解释MCCA结果可能不如解释CCA结果那么简单。为了解决CCA中的这些困难,提出了在两组主成分(PC)得分之间使用CCA的主成分CCA(PCCA)。我们将这一思想应用于多组PC分数,提出了多组PCCA(MPCCA)。PC根据其包含的信息量按降序排列。因此,只使用顶部的几个PC分数就足够了,而不是使用所有的PC分数。减少PC的数量使解释结果变得容易。我们通过仿真研究和实例验证了MPCCA的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
On The Weighted BurrXII Distribution: Theory and Practice 加权BurrXII分布的理论与实践
IF 0.7 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2020-02-05 DOI: 10.1285/I20705948V13N1P229
M. Shakhatreh, Abedel-Qader Al-Masri
We take an in-depth look at the weighted Burr-XII distribution. This distribu-tion generalizes Burr-XII, Lomax, and log-logistic distributions. We discuss the dis-tributional characteristics of the probability density function, the failure rate function,and mean residual lifetime of this distribution. Moreover, we obtain various statisti-cal properties of this distribution such as moment generating function, entropies, meandeviations, order statistics and stochastic ordering. The estimation of the distributionparameters via maximum likelihood method and the observed Fisher information ma-trix are discussed. We further employ a simulation study to investigate the behavior ofthe maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs). A test concerning the existence of size-biasin the sample is provided. In the end, a real data is presented and is analyzed usingthis distribution along with some existing distributions for illustrative purposes.
我们将深入研究加权Burr-XII分布。这种分布推广了Burr-XII、Lomax和loglogistic分布。讨论了该分布的概率密度函数、故障率函数和平均剩余寿命的分布特征。此外,我们还获得了该分布的各种统计性质,如矩生成函数、熵、平均偏差、有序统计和随机排序。讨论了用极大似然法估计分布参数和观测到的Fisher信息矩阵。我们进一步采用模拟研究来研究最大似然估计(MLEs)的行为。给出了样品中存在尺寸偏差的检验方法。最后,给出了一个真实的数据,并使用该分布和一些现有分布进行了分析,以说明问题。
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引用次数: 0
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Electronic Journal of Applied Statistical Analysis
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