In this study, we investigate market efficiency considering nonlinearities by testing the weak-form market efficiency of the stock markets of Brazil, China, Russia, Turkey, and South Africa using recently proposed nonlinear panel unit root tests. The stock markets of these emerging countries are deliberately selected for their market capitalization to form a homogenous panel. The results of nonlinear models indicate that the stock market indexes are stationary and weak-form inefficient. This finding contributes to the contradictory results of the prior research using linear and nonlinear models about the efficiency of emerging stock markets in favor of nonlinear ones. Furthermore, we propose that studies using financial variables consider such nonlinearity in order to achieve more accuracy in findings related to such studies.
{"title":"The efficiency of emerging markets: Evidence from nonlinear panel unit tests","authors":"Neslihan Turguttopbas, Tolga Omay","doi":"10.2298/pan200309011t","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan200309011t","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we investigate market efficiency considering nonlinearities by testing the weak-form market efficiency of the stock markets of Brazil, China, Russia, Turkey, and South Africa using recently proposed nonlinear panel unit root tests. The stock markets of these emerging countries are deliberately selected for their market capitalization to form a homogenous panel. The results of nonlinear models indicate that the stock market indexes are stationary and weak-form inefficient. This finding contributes to the contradictory results of the prior research using linear and nonlinear models about the efficiency of emerging stock markets in favor of nonlinear ones. Furthermore, we propose that studies using financial variables consider such nonlinearity in order to achieve more accuracy in findings related to such studies.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68605576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
From 2005 to 2008, high volatility in the markets affected grain prices significantly. This high volatility in grain prices made many researchers curious, and many discussions aroused from this topic. This study analyzes wheat price behavior during this period of high volatility. We estimate a return index for wheat using spot and futures wheat prices with the help of a present value model. To analyze the cointegration between the wheat prices and return index, a new co-integration test with multiple structural breaks, developed by Daiki Maki (2012), is used. The long-run cointegration coefficients are estimated using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares methodology. The empirical results show that there is cointegration between the spot and futures wheat prices, which tends to change at breakpoints. In other words, there is an equilibrium relation between spot prices and futures prices; however, it becomes unstable during the crisis in 2008. The results may help in understanding the dynamics of wheat prices, especially during high-volatility periods.
{"title":"The analysis of wheat prices using multiple structural breakpoint co-integration test","authors":"G. Çınar, Adnan Hushmat","doi":"10.2298/PAN150428004C","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN150428004C","url":null,"abstract":"From 2005 to 2008, high volatility in the markets affected grain prices significantly. This high volatility in grain prices made many researchers curious, and many discussions aroused from this topic. This study analyzes wheat price behavior during this period of high volatility. We estimate a return index for wheat using spot and futures wheat prices with the help of a present value model. To analyze the cointegration between the wheat prices and return index, a new co-integration test with multiple structural breaks, developed by Daiki Maki (2012), is used. The long-run cointegration coefficients are estimated using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares methodology. The empirical results show that there is cointegration between the spot and futures wheat prices, which tends to change at breakpoints. In other words, there is an equilibrium relation between spot prices and futures prices; however, it becomes unstable during the crisis in 2008. The results may help in understanding the dynamics of wheat prices, especially during high-volatility periods.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68598963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study analyzes convergence among regions of Turkey from an endogenous growth perspective. The results show that human capital, which is represented with R&D personnel, has a negative impact on economic growth in the regions based on its percentage in total employment. Moreover, we find that there is an estimated U-shaped relationship, which implies that if the percentage of R&D personnel in total employment increases after a certain level, the effect has a tendency of turning positive; the west region is especially closer to having a positive effect. However, regarding convergence, the relatively high-income west is closer to experiencing the positive effect of R&D personnel. Moreover, due to the relatively low percentage of R&D personnel in the east region, the economic growth of the east region is more negatively affected by R&D personnel. Therefore, using a strategy that is based on increasing the percentage of R&D personnel cannot help the east region to close the differences in income.
{"title":"Regional income convergence in Turkey: An empirical analysis from an endogenous growth perspective","authors":"H. Bolkol","doi":"10.2298/pan190428010b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan190428010b","url":null,"abstract":"This study analyzes convergence among regions of Turkey from an endogenous growth perspective. The results show that human capital, which is represented with R&D personnel, has a negative impact on economic growth in the regions based on its percentage in total employment. Moreover, we find that there is an estimated U-shaped relationship, which implies that if the percentage of R&D personnel in total employment increases after a certain level, the effect has a tendency of turning positive; the west region is especially closer to having a positive effect. However, regarding convergence, the relatively high-income west is closer to experiencing the positive effect of R&D personnel. Moreover, due to the relatively low percentage of R&D personnel in the east region, the economic growth of the east region is more negatively affected by R&D personnel. Therefore, using a strategy that is based on increasing the percentage of R&D personnel cannot help the east region to close the differences in income.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68604987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study revisits the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis in reference to the deficit-spending dynamics of Turkey in the period 1924 to 2008, during which the government was expanding along with the developing national economy and democracy. The empirical analysis of the hypothesis is based on the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration, which is not only quite new in the literature on the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis but also superior to other single-equation cointegration approaches. The prevailing empirics for the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis reveal deficiencies in several respects, as they ignore the mixed orders of integration in regressors, the endogeneity of regressors, and the encompassing dynamic structure in the short and long runs. Within this context, the findings of this study imply the validity of the hypothesis for Turkey, providing empirical evidence on the premise that budget deficits financed by nontax sources are the main driving force behind the continuously increasing public spending in Turkey. This evidence is argued to be a reflection of the fact that the perceived tax price of public goods and services decreases with debtfinanced budget deficits over time.
{"title":"The Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis: Revisiting the theory with new empirics for a spendthrift democracy","authors":"Önal Konukcu Debi","doi":"10.2298/pan200522009k","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan200522009k","url":null,"abstract":"This study revisits the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis in reference to the deficit-spending dynamics of Turkey in the period 1924 to 2008, during which the government was expanding along with the developing national economy and democracy. The empirical analysis of the hypothesis is based on the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration, which is not only quite new in the literature on the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis but also superior to other single-equation cointegration approaches. The prevailing empirics for the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis reveal deficiencies in several respects, as they ignore the mixed orders of integration in regressors, the endogeneity of regressors, and the encompassing dynamic structure in the short and long runs. Within this context, the findings of this study imply the validity of the hypothesis for Turkey, providing empirical evidence on the premise that budget deficits financed by nontax sources are the main driving force behind the continuously increasing public spending in Turkey. This evidence is argued to be a reflection of the fact that the perceived tax price of public goods and services decreases with debtfinanced budget deficits over time.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68605412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
After publication of the original article, it came to the authors? attention that during the editing process a mathematical operator is missing in the text on pages 5 and 12.
{"title":"Erratum to: Shocks, financial constraints and households’ consumption amid the great recession","authors":"E. Editorial","doi":"10.2298/pan2102253e","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2102253e","url":null,"abstract":"After publication of the original article, it came to the authors? attention that during the editing process a mathematical operator is missing in the text on pages 5 and 12. <br><br><font color=\"red\"><b> Link to the corrected article <u><a href=\"http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/PAN2101001A\">10.2298/PAN2101001A</a></b></u>","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68606519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study delves into the effects of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on global value chain (GVC) participation from 2000 to 2014. The utilization of traditional panel models, the spatial Durbin model (SDM), and the threshold model provides a comprehensive understanding of the heterogeneous spillover effects of outward FDI. The results show that increased outward FDI not only facilitates the GVC participation of parent countries but also has a profound impact on that of other countries. The spillover effects of outward FDI play a vital role in the GVC participation of low total factor productivity (TFP) countries. However, for developed countries with high TFP levels, outward FDI has positive impacts on deep GVC participation while not influencing shallow participation. These findings serve as an extension to the relevant theories and suggest a way for developing countries to capture gains from outward FDI and participate further in GVCs.
{"title":"Heterogeneous spillover effects of outward FDI on global value chain participation","authors":"Yanfang Wang, Shumei Chen","doi":"10.2298/PAN171024009W","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN171024009W","url":null,"abstract":"This study delves into the effects of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on global value chain (GVC) participation from 2000 to 2014. The utilization of traditional panel models, the spatial Durbin model (SDM), and the threshold model provides a comprehensive understanding of the heterogeneous spillover effects of outward FDI. The results show that increased outward FDI not only facilitates the GVC participation of parent countries but also has a profound impact on that of other countries. The spillover effects of outward FDI play a vital role in the GVC participation of low total factor productivity (TFP) countries. However, for developed countries with high TFP levels, outward FDI has positive impacts on deep GVC participation while not influencing shallow participation. These findings serve as an extension to the relevant theories and suggest a way for developing countries to capture gains from outward FDI and participate further in GVCs.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47775831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Unlike previous studies, the current study uses oil price and inflationary shocks to assess the feasibility of actualizing the ECOWAS Vision 2020, which is aimed at creating a monetary union. With the help of the Blanchard and Quah (BQ) decomposition for a sample from 1975:05 to 2018:08, two sets of models are estimated: models for inflationary shocks and models for oil price shocks. It is found that although the vision is a mirage, the creation of a common currency can serve as a shock absorber against the negative spillovers of global and regional inflationary shocks. The study also finds that oil price shocks lead to appreciation of the currency for the oil exporting country Nigeria, while Nigeria, The Gambia and Ghana stand out in their responses to oil price shocks. The study recommends that these countries cannot be part of the Vision and that more coordination among ECOWAS members is needed before this Vision can be actualised.Keywords: Monetary union, Optimal currency area, ECOWAS, WAEMU, SVAR, BQ decomposition.JEL: C13, E31, E52, E58, F33, F42.
{"title":"ECOWAS common currency, a mirage or possibility?","authors":"Sagiru Mati, Irfan Civcir, Huseyin Ozdeser","doi":"10.2298/pan191119015m","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan191119015m","url":null,"abstract":"Unlike previous studies, the current study uses oil price and inflationary shocks to assess the feasibility of actualizing the ECOWAS Vision 2020, which is aimed at creating a monetary union. With the help of the Blanchard and Quah (BQ) decomposition for a sample from 1975:05 to 2018:08, two sets of models are estimated: models for inflationary shocks and models for oil price shocks. It is found that although the vision is a mirage, the creation of a common currency can serve as a shock absorber against the negative spillovers of global and regional inflationary shocks. The study also finds that oil price shocks lead to appreciation of the currency for the oil exporting country Nigeria, while Nigeria, The Gambia and Ghana stand out in their responses to oil price shocks. The study recommends that these countries cannot be part of the Vision and that more coordination among ECOWAS members is needed before this Vision can be actualised.Keywords: Monetary union, Optimal currency area, ECOWAS, WAEMU, SVAR, BQ decomposition.JEL: C13, E31, E52, E58, F33, F42.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":"15-15"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41616312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The inability of the European Union (EU) to grow has raised questions regarding the effectiveness of competitiveness and growth policies. To increase efficacy, the EU has determined that regions must undergo an exercise in smart specialization and devise a strategy for the same. However, particularly in follower regions facing severe locked-in problems and structural bottlenecks, the application of smart specialization may require adjustments and a more dynamic vision, especially with regard to the follower regions. Furthermore, many operational issues arise in the programming and policy-devising stages. This article aims to contribute to this debate by proposing a framework to guide the selection of priorities and by applying the proposed framework to the Portuguese North region.Keywords: Smart specialization, Innovation policy, Regional innovation systems, Follower regions.
{"title":"Operationalizing smart specialization in a Portuguese follower region","authors":"Alexandre Almeida, Óscar Afonso, M. Silva","doi":"10.2298/pan181109014a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan181109014a","url":null,"abstract":"The inability of the European Union (EU) to grow has raised questions regarding the effectiveness of competitiveness and growth policies. To increase efficacy, the EU has determined that regions must undergo an exercise in smart specialization and devise a strategy for the same. However, particularly in follower regions facing severe locked-in problems and structural bottlenecks, the application of smart specialization may require adjustments and a more dynamic vision, especially with regard to the follower regions. Furthermore, many operational issues arise in the programming and policy-devising stages. This article aims to contribute to this debate by proposing a framework to guide the selection of priorities and by applying the proposed framework to the Portuguese North region.Keywords: Smart specialization, Innovation policy, Regional innovation systems, Follower regions.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":"14-14"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42954497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper furthers and updates the research on the nature of the so-called global trade slowdown. Not only do we explain and discuss the determinants of this phenomenon, but we also offer an empirical description of the recent evolution of trade and trade elasticity. With the purpose of testing whether this is a structural phenomenon or not, we build an Error Correction Model for both world and regional data on trade and income using data from the World Bank for the period 1970-2017. World, OECD and Asian countries trade elasticity figures show a remarkable reduction after the hyperglobalization period (1986-2001), opposed to those of Latin America where trade volume has not stagnated so much. This slowdown might have major consequences for any country, but especially for those which have relied more intensively on trade as an engine for growth.Keywords: Global trade, Trade-income elasticity, ECM. JEL: C22, F15.
{"title":"Is world trade slowing down? New evidence on trade-income elasticity","authors":"Amaia Altuzarra, R. Bustillo, C. Rodríguez","doi":"10.2298/pan190722013a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan190722013a","url":null,"abstract":"This paper furthers and updates the research on the nature of the so-called global trade slowdown. Not only do we explain and discuss the determinants of this phenomenon, but we also offer an empirical description of the recent evolution of trade and trade elasticity. With the purpose of testing whether this is a structural phenomenon or not, we build an Error Correction Model for both world and regional data on trade and income using data from the World Bank for the period 1970-2017. World, OECD and Asian countries trade elasticity figures show a remarkable reduction after the hyperglobalization period (1986-2001), opposed to those of Latin America where trade volume has not stagnated so much. This slowdown might have major consequences for any country, but especially for those which have relied more intensively on trade as an engine for growth.Keywords: Global trade, Trade-income elasticity, ECM. JEL: C22, F15.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":"13-13"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44088437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Corruption impacts the competitive conditions among firms and the flow of foreign investment. Institutional reforms made for fighting against corruption are sometimes useless. We develop a model in which a corrupted government tries to set an optimal institutional level taking into account the cost of this policy on foreign investment, the benefit of a corrupted domestic firm and the benefit of local citizens. A political contribution is made by a corrupted lobby group in order to benefit from a lower institutional level. Our results suggest that the optimal institutional level depends on the degree of efficiency of firms and the level of corruption of the host government. Key words: Corruption, Lobbying, Institutional reforms, Foreign direct investment. JEL: F21, F30, K42
{"title":"Foreign direct investment, corruption, and institutional reforms","authors":"R. Salvador","doi":"10.2298/pan181214011e","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan181214011e","url":null,"abstract":"Corruption impacts the competitive conditions among firms and the flow of foreign investment. Institutional reforms made for fighting against corruption are sometimes useless. We develop a model in which a corrupted government tries to set an optimal institutional level taking into account the cost of this policy on foreign investment, the benefit of a corrupted domestic firm and the benefit of local citizens. A political contribution is made by a corrupted lobby group in order to benefit from a lower institutional level. Our results suggest that the optimal institutional level depends on the degree of efficiency of firms and the level of corruption of the host government. Key words: Corruption, Lobbying, Institutional reforms, Foreign direct investment. JEL: F21, F30, K42","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":"11-11"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43922063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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