Middle East Policy最新文献

In Egypt's 2012 elections, the Muslim Brotherhood came to power after many years of repression, an unprecedented victory for the country's most active opposition movement. The Brotherhood's journey can be divided into several stages. One of the most important, which has not received enough attention, is the imprisonment of many of its major figures. Long before the coup that overthrew President Mohamed Morsi in 2013, the Arab nationalist President Gamal Abdel Nasser brutally put down the movement with mass arrests. The Brotherhood's members dominated Egypt's prisons, but they were far from the only activists in the system, which also held communists, Zionists, and other Jewish prisoners. This article uses the memoirs of the incarcerated enemies of the state to examine the struggles of these groups inside Egypt's prisons and show how the institutions served as platforms to promote the ideological struggle against the regime.

While the Arab Spring was primarily a revolution of young civilians against the old regimes, its influence on fertility patterns and natalist policies has not received sufficient attention. The first part of this article examines fertility in Arab countries on the eve of the uprisings, and the second looks into the patterns from the decade following the onset of the protests through the outbreak of Covid-19. The third part analyzes the impact of the Arab Spring on the states’ natalist policies, and the final section deals with the socioeconomic challenges imposed by the current demographic structures of these countries. The conclusion is that during the 2010s, the non-oil Arab countries went through two fertility revolutions, with an increase in the first few years and a substantial decrease after. Will the Arab states achieve the targeted replacement-level fertility rate, as was the case in many developing countries around the world over the past generation, including many non-Arab Islamic countries? And what are the socioeconomic and political consequences of this fertility revolution in the Arab countries?

The expansion of Iranian influence through the Houthi rebels in Yemen alarmed Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, leading them to intervene in the civil war. However, this only prolonged the conflict, in part because the two Gulf neighbors failed to coordinate—indeed, they often followed divergent policies. One reason for this was ideological, as the Saudis favored Yemen's al-Islah party, an offshoot of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood movement. The Emiratis rejected this group and opposed Saudi-backed President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi due to his links to it. The other area of dispute was the UAE's support for secessionists seeking an independent South Yemen, largely driven by Emirati economic interests. Saudi Arabia strongly resisted separation and prioritized the fight against the Houthis. The article analyzes the many facets of the divide over Yemen and shows how the rift is affecting other parts of the region.

Market economies in the eastern Mediterranean are not counted among ideal-typical innovators. But this picture may be changing. This article explores the emerging innovation systems in the eastern Mediterranean by examining recent data and the literatures on varieties of capitalism and innovation systems. Through the cases of Cyprus, Israel, and Turkey, the study argues that the varieties of capitalism framework, by focusing on performance at the macro level, disregards the subnational performance of these outlier markets, which have promising regional or local innovation systems. Fostering cooperation among these emerging innovation systems could become a valuable instrument for overcoming deeply rooted conflicts in the eastern Mediterranean, which has turned into a “crisis zone” due to recent energy discoveries.

The invasion of Ukraine sent shock waves through the South Caucasus and Central Asia, subjecting the eight countries of the post-Soviet area to economic, political, and social challenges. Refusing to support Russia in circumventing sanctions or taking a stand against the invasion could expose these countries to retaliatory measures. But aligning with Moscow could lead to international isolation and the imposition of secondary sanctions. This article explores the ways these countries are navigating the new geopolitics, with Azerbaijan gaining but Armenia seeking new allies. It then examines the economic benefits to these countries of Russia's desperation, though this leaves them vulnerable to US and European penalties. It concludes with an analysis of how these states are dealing with the tensions caused by migration out of Russia. In all of these areas, the post-Soviet South must weigh the risks of aligning with the weakening great power or the West.

This article examines the victory of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey's 2023 presidential election, the role of fear-oriented populist nationalism in Turkish politics, and the implications of the results for society. It argues that Turkey faces a deep moral and social crisis rather than a mere political problem. The article explores the sociocultural origins of polarization, as competing communities with few shared values contribute to divisions. It also analyzes the formation and ideologies of the People's Alliance and the Nation Alliance, the two major blocs involved in the 2023 elections, providing insights into their visions for Turkey. Last, the article scrutinizes the cult of the strongman, the widespread use of nationalism and religion, the utilization of state resources by Erdoğan's administration, and the influence of media—largely controlled by Erdoğan—on public opinion. This includes investigating the impact of alternative truths and narratives on the electoral process. The analysis highlights the deep-rooted moral bankruptcy Turkey faces in the third decade of Erdoğan's rule.

Peacekeeping, and the conflicts to which it is applied, have evolved since the United Nations began these operations in 1948. Today, the UN has 90,000 peacekeepers deployed around the world in 12 operations that cost the international community $6.5 billion a year. Half of these missions have been going on for a combined total of three centuries, with no solution in sight to any of them. Five of the remaining six are in response to violent extremism. In those missions, a steadily growing number of peacekeepers are being killed despite the fact that they are unable to make any significant contribution to successfully combating the extremists. UN peacekeeping has therefore become either endless or impossible, and the peacekeepers have neither the carrots nor the sticks to effectively promote peace or punish those who are preventing it. It is time for the international community to rethink how it strives for international stability in conflict situations. To have a serious discussion, however, would require the UN member states to place a higher priority on peace than on their individual national interests.