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Economic Growth and Productivity Performance in Central Asia. 中亚的经济增长和生产力表现。
IF 0.8 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-09-10 DOI: 10.1057/s41294-021-00156-1
Mirzobobo Yormirzoev

This paper analyzes patterns of long-term economic performance in all five Central Asian countries. We first look at sources of economic growth based on a simple growth accounting exercise. Our findings show that under the period of study total factor productivity growth rates were modest ranging from 1.7% for Kazakhstan, 1.4% for Uzbekistan, and 0.8% for Tajikistan and Turkmenistan to-0.4% for the Kyrgyz Republic. The second part of the paper is connected with exploring productivity level analysis across all Central Asian countries by decomposing differences in output per worker into differences in capital intensity and productivity. Results reflect different levels of productivity performance in the region compared with Japan and South Korea as frontier economies for the analysis.

本文分析了中亚五国的长期经济表现模式。我们首先根据一个简单的增长核算来研究经济增长的来源。我们的研究结果表明,在研究期间,全要素生产率增长率适中,哈萨克斯坦为1.7%,乌兹别克斯坦为1.4%,塔吉克斯坦和土库曼斯坦为0.8%,吉尔吉斯共和国为0.4%。本文的第二部分是通过将人均产出的差异分解为资本密集度和生产率的差异来探索所有中亚国家的生产率水平分析。与作为分析前沿经济体的日本和韩国相比,结果反映了该地区不同水平的生产率表现。
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引用次数: 6
Growth Factors in Developed Countries: A 1960-2019 Growth Accounting Decomposition. 发达国家的增长要素:1960-2019年增长核算分解。
IF 0.8 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-10-28 DOI: 10.1057/s41294-021-00170-3
Gilbert Cette, Aurélien Devillard, Vincenzo Spiezia

Using a new and original database, our paper contributes to the growth accounting literature with three original aspects: First, it covers a long period from the early 60's to 2019, just before the COVID-19 crisis; second, it analyzes a large set of economies (30 plus the Euro Area) at the country level; finally, it singles out the growth contribution of information and communications technologies (ICTs) capital as well as robots. Our findings show that the main drivers of labor productivity growth over the whole 1960-2019 period appear to have been education, total factor productivity (TFP), non-ICT and non-robot capital deepening. The relative contribution of ICT capital is found to be declining from the mid-2000s, although our country-level economy dataset does not make it possible to estimate the TFP contribution of ICTs. The contribution of robots to productivity growth through capital deepening and TFP appears to be significant in Germany and Japan in the sub-period 1975-1995, in France and Italy in 1995-2005, and in several Eastern European countries in 2005-2019. Our findings also confirm the slowdown in TFP in most countries from at least 1995 onwards. This slowdown is mainly accounted for by a decrease in the contributions of non-ICT non-robot capital deepening and TFP.

本文使用了一个全新的原始数据库,为增长会计文献做出了三个方面的贡献:首先,它涵盖了从60年代初到2019年(COVID-19危机之前)的很长一段时间;其次,它在国家层面上分析了一大批经济体(30个加上欧元区);最后,报告特别指出了信息和通信技术(ict)资本以及机器人对经济增长的贡献。我们的研究结果表明,在整个1960-2019年期间,劳动生产率增长的主要驱动力似乎是教育、全要素生产率(TFP)、非ict和非机器人资本深化。信息通信技术资本的相对贡献从2000年代中期开始下降,尽管我们的国家级经济数据集无法估计信息通信技术对全要素生产率的贡献。机器人通过资本深化和TFP对生产率增长的贡献在德国和日本(1975-1995年)、法国和意大利(1995-2005年)以及一些东欧国家(2005-2019年)似乎都很显著。我们的研究结果还证实,至少从1995年开始,大多数国家的全要素生产率有所放缓。这种放缓的主要原因是非ict非机器人资本深化和TFP的贡献下降。
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引用次数: 10
Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Currency Crises in the Former Soviet Union Countries. 前苏联国家实际汇率失调与货币危机。
IF 0.8 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-11-25 DOI: 10.1057/s41294-021-00178-9
Viktar Dudzich

The paper explores the utility of real exchange rate misalignments from their equilibrium for identification of currency crises in the former Soviet Union countries. We estimate equilibrium exchange rates for 10 former Soviet Republics employing behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and natural real exchange rate (NATREX) concepts and pooled mean group estimator. Subsequently, we compare the estimated misalignments before, during and after the currency crisis episodes and regress the misalignments on crisis-related variables. The results indicate that the misalignments tended to increase before the crises and visibly reduced after, thus serving as potentially viable predictors of such events.

本文从均衡角度探讨了实际汇率失调对前苏联国家货币危机识别的效用。我们使用行为均衡汇率(BEER)和自然实际汇率(NATREX)概念和集合平均群估计器估计了10个前苏联共和国的均衡汇率。随后,我们比较了货币危机发生前、期间和之后的估计偏差,并对危机相关变量的偏差进行了回归。结果表明,在危机发生前,失调倾向于增加,危机发生后明显减少,因此可以作为此类事件的潜在可行预测指标。
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引用次数: 1
Socio-Economic and Political Challenges of EU Member Countries: Grasping the Policy Direction of the European Semester. 欧盟成员国的社会经济和政治挑战:把握欧洲学期的政策方向。
IF 0.8 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-10-11 DOI: 10.1057/s41294-021-00171-2
Sara Casagrande, Bruno Dallago

The European Semester (ES) and the country-specific recommendations (CSRs) have been introduced with the purpose to promote flexibility and adaptation to national circumstances in the governance of fiscal policies. To assess whether the ES has contributed to reconcile economic and social objectives, we measured, through the distance to frontier (DTF) score methodology, the distance of each member country from a benchmark based on EU aims and values defined in the EU treaties. Results show that EU member countries are far from the benchmark and CSRs have not prevented a progressive deterioration of stability and cohesion from an economic, political and social perspective. A content analysis of the CSRs issued from 2011 to 2018 and a comparison with the DTF scores reveal a weak connection between member countries' performance and CSRs. Despite the social content of many CSRs, we actually observe a "commodification" of their goals. CSRs promote a society functional to flexible and competitive markets, and compatible with the requirements of fiscal discipline and sustainability. This neoliberal approach apparently played a role in the EU deterioration and makes the "socialization" of the ES a process with ambiguous implications for European citizens.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1057/s41294-021-00171-2.

引入欧洲学期(ES)和国别建议(CSRs)的目的是促进财政政策治理的灵活性和对国情的适应性。为了评估ES是否有助于协调经济和社会目标,我们通过边界距离(DTF)得分方法测量了每个成员国与基于欧盟目标和欧盟条约中定义的价值观的基准的距离。结果表明,欧盟成员国与基准相去甚远,从经济、政治和社会的角度来看,社会责任并没有阻止稳定和凝聚力的逐步恶化。对2011年至2018年发布的社会责任报告的内容分析以及与DTF分数的比较显示,成员国的表现与社会责任之间的联系很弱。尽管许多企业社会责任的内容是社会的,但我们实际上观察到它们的目标是“商品化”的。企业社会责任促进社会适应灵活和竞争的市场,并符合财政纪律和可持续性的要求。这种新自由主义方法显然在欧盟的恶化中发挥了作用,并使欧盟的“社会化”成为一个对欧洲公民具有模糊含义的过程。补充信息:在线版本包含补充资料,可在10.1057/s41294-021-00171-2获得。
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引用次数: 3
Short-Term Harm, Long-Term Prosperity? Democracy, Corruption and Foreign Direct Investments in Sino-African Economic Relations 短期危害,长期繁荣?中非经济关系中的民主、腐败与外国直接投资
IF 0.8 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-11-23 DOI: 10.1057/s41294-021-00176-x
Sargis Karavardanyan
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引用次数: 2
Civil War, Famine and the Persistence of Human Capital: Evidence from Tajikistan 内战、饥荒与人力资本的持续:来自塔吉克斯坦的证据
IF 0.8 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-11-12 DOI: 10.1057/s41294-021-00174-z
L. Grogan
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引用次数: 0
János Kornai (1928–2021): One of the Intellectual Giants of the Twentieth Century János科尔奈(1928-2021):二十世纪的知识巨人之一
IF 0.8 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-11-10 DOI: 10.1057/s41294-021-00175-y
G. Roland
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引用次数: 0
Gender Regime and Women’s Employment in Kazakhstan 哈萨克斯坦的性别制度与妇女就业
IF 0.8 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-29 DOI: 10.1057/s41294-021-00173-0
M. Meurs, M. Nugmanova, Aizhan Salimzhanova, S. Marvin
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引用次数: 2
Post-Soviet Agricultural Restructuring: A Success Story After All? 后苏联农业结构调整:一个成功的故事?
IF 0.8 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-05 DOI: 10.1057/s41294-021-00172-1
M. Petrick
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引用次数: 3
High Corruption, Less Bank Efficiency? 腐败程度高,银行效率低?
IF 0.8 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-06 DOI: 10.1057/s41294-021-00167-y
Francis Osei-Tutu
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引用次数: 3
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Comparative Economic Studies
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