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The future of the Arctic populations 北极居民的未来
IF 2.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-03 DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707316
T. Heleniak
ABSTRACT Projections of the future size, composition, and distribution of the populations of the Arctic states and regions are useful for policy makers in planning. This paper presents and analyzes the most recent population projections done for the Arctic states and regions. Global population growth is projected to continue increasing from the current total of 7.4 billion to 10 billion in 2055. The population of the Arctic, as defined here, is projected to have little change with a projected population increase of just 1%. However, there will be considerable variation in growth rates among Arctic regions. Alaska, Yukon, Nunavut, Iceland, Troms, the Khanty-Mansiy Okrug, and Chukotka are projected to have a substantial population increase of more than 10% over the projection period. Nordland, Finnmark, North Ostrobothnia, and Nenets Autonomous Okrug are projected to have more modest growth of between 5% and 10%. Kainuu in Finland, Karelia, Komi, Arkhangel’sk, Murmansk, and Magadan in Russia are projected to have population declines of more than 5%. Common trends seen in nearly all Arctic regions in the future are aging populations, more balanced gender ratios between men and women, increased population concentration into larger urban settlements, and the depopulation of smaller settlements.
对北极国家和地区未来人口规模、组成和分布的预测对政策制定者的规划非常有用。本文介绍并分析了北极国家和地区最新的人口预测。预计全球人口增长将从目前的74亿继续增长到2055年的100亿。按照这里的定义,北极地区的人口预计变化不大,预计人口仅增长1%。然而,北极地区之间的增长率将有相当大的差异。阿拉斯加、育空、努纳武特、冰岛、特罗姆斯、汉特-曼西地区和楚科奇预计在预测期内人口将大幅增长10%以上。Nordland, Finnmark, North Ostrobothnia和涅涅茨自治区的增长率预计在5%到10%之间。芬兰的凯努、卡累利阿、科米、阿尔汉格尔斯克、摩尔曼斯克和俄罗斯的马加丹的人口预计将减少5%以上。未来几乎所有北极地区的共同趋势是人口老龄化、男女性别比例更加平衡、人口更多地集中到较大的城市定居点,以及较小的定居点人口减少。
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引用次数: 18
A tale of three cities: the concept of smart sustainable cities for the Arctic 三个城市的故事:北极智能可持续城市的概念
IF 2.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2020.1713546
Andreas Raspotnik, Ragnhild Grønning, V. Herrmann
ABSTRACT This article considers established metrics for smart city development and evaluates their suitability for implementation in Arctic urban settlements. To do this, the article first surveys smart city literature and the standardization of ‘smartness’ metrics, with particular interest in the International Standards Organization’s (ISO) categorization efforts. It then proposes a northern framework of measurement to evaluate smart cities that adjusts smart metrics from current non-Arctic scholarship to the relatively low populations, peripheral development, remote locations, and harsh climate conditions of the circumpolar north. To test this argument of a new smart framework, the article moves to examine the strategies of three circumpolar cities at different points of smart development: Anchorage (United States), Bodø (Norway) and Oulu (Finland). The article concludes by identifying areas of success and shortcomings for each city analyzed. Smart cities can be a crucial step towards a sustainable future in the circumpolar north, contributing to a ‘smarter’ approach to economic, social, and environmental development. Exploring this is important because these frameworks have implications for how policymakers in northern regions choose to plan and implement their city strategies.
本文考虑了智慧城市发展的既定指标,并评估了它们在北极城市住区实施的适用性。为此,本文首先调查了智慧城市文献和“智慧”指标的标准化,特别关注国际标准组织(ISO)的分类工作。然后,它提出了一个北方测量框架来评估智能城市,该框架将智能指标从当前的非北极奖学金调整到相对较少的人口、外围开发、偏远地区和环北极恶劣的气候条件。为了验证这一新的智能框架的论点,本文进一步研究了三个处于不同智能发展阶段的环极城市的战略:安克雷奇(美国)、博多(挪威)和奥卢(芬兰)。文章最后指出了每个城市的成功和不足之处。智慧城市是北极地区迈向可持续未来的关键一步,有助于以“更智能”的方式实现经济、社会和环境发展。探索这一点很重要,因为这些框架对北方地区的决策者如何选择规划和实施其城市战略具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 17
Public perceptions of non-native plant species on a Chilean sub-Antarctic island 公众对智利亚南极岛屿上非本地植物物种的看法
IF 2.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1707321
Gaëlle Crête, T. Herrmann, Cloé Fortin, Elke Schüttler
ABSTRACT Humans are the main drivers of the introduction, establishment and spread of non-native species worldwide but they have traditionally been excluded from management. Nowadays, the social component of non-native species is increasingly considered. In this paper, we investigated understanding, perceptions and attitudes towards management of non-native herbaceous plant species on Navarino, a remote Chilean sub-Antarctic island. Overall, our study showed a general understanding of the non-native species concept among the interviewees but revealed a lack of consciousness regarding non-native plants species in the local context. Interestingly, our study also revealed many positive values associated with non-native plants species on Navarino, particularly the esthetic value. Whilst some non-native plants were strictly associated with positive values, such as common daisy (Bellis perennis) and white clover (Trifolium repens), most species were associated with conflicting values. As a key result, our study lastly showed that most interviewees were indifferent about the management of the non-native herbaceous plant species. We, therefore, suggest (i) increasing the awareness of stakeholders with respect to non-native plants, (ii) incorporating stakeholder’s values into future management decisions and (iii) considering the strategic location of Navarino Island as a potential stepping stone for the dispersion of non-native plants species towards the Antarctic.
人类是世界范围内非本地物种引进、建立和传播的主要驱动力,但人类传统上被排除在管理之外。目前,非本地物种的社会成分越来越受到重视。本文调查了智利偏远亚南极岛屿纳瓦里诺对非本地草本植物物种管理的认识、认知和态度。总体而言,我们的研究显示受访者对非本地物种的概念有大致的了解,但对本地背景下的非本地植物物种缺乏认识。有趣的是,我们的研究还揭示了与纳瓦里诺非本地植物物种相关的许多积极价值,特别是美学价值。虽然一些非本地植物与正值严格相关,如普通雏菊(Bellis perennis)和白三叶草(Trifolium repens),但大多数物种与冲突值相关。最后,我们的研究结果表明,大多数受访者对非本地草本植物物种的管理漠不关心。因此,我们建议(i)提高利益相关者对非本地植物的认识;(ii)将利益相关者的价值观纳入未来的管理决策;(iii)考虑纳瓦里诺岛的战略位置,作为非本地植物物种向南极扩散的潜在垫脚石。
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引用次数: 4
‘I think it is the toughest animal in the North’: human-wolverine interactions among hunters and trappers in the Canadian Northwest Territories “我认为这是北方最难对付的动物”:加拿大西北地区猎人和捕兽者与狼獾的互动
IF 2.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1685020
M. Bonamy, T. Herrmann, A. Harbicht
ABSTRACT The wolverine (Gulo gulo), a carnivore species of ‘Special Concern’ for its western population and ‘Endangered’ for its eastern population, is of special management concern in Canada. Hence understanding human-wolverine relationships and human perceptions toward this carnivore species has become important. Moreover, wolverines are harvested for fur in northern Canada, thus hunters and trappers who live in the vicinity with this species are key stakeholders. Using semi-structured interviews and questionnaires we analysed human-wolverine interactions and perceptions among Dene and Métis hunters and trappers in the Canadian Northwest Territories. We found that hunters and trappers had comprehensive knowledge about wolverine ecology and behavior. Values associated with this species ranged from respect for their tenacious character and strength, to describing the wolverine as a trickster. Stories emphasizing the wolverines’ mischievous nature were also common. Dene and Métis hunters and trappers acknowledge the importance of the wolverine in the socio-ecological system and have observed the cumulative impacts that climate and human-induced landscape change have had on wolverine habitat and population dynamics. Listening to hunters and trappers is one path towards more insightful management options in situations involving conflicts with wolverines.
狼獾(Gulo Gulo)是一种食肉动物,西部种群为“特别关注”,东部种群为“濒危”,在加拿大有特殊的管理问题。因此,了解人类与狼獾的关系以及人类对这种食肉动物的看法变得非常重要。此外,在加拿大北部,狼獾的皮毛被采集,因此居住在该物种附近的猎人和捕兽者是关键的利益相关者。通过半结构化访谈和问卷调查,我们分析了加拿大西北地区Dene和msamutis猎人和诱捕者与狼獾的互动和感知。我们发现猎人和诱捕者对狼獾的生态和行为有全面的了解。与这个物种相关的价值观从对它们顽强的性格和力量的尊重,到将狼獾描述为骗子。强调狼獾顽皮天性的故事也很常见。Dene和msamutis猎人和诱捕者认识到狼獾在社会生态系统中的重要性,并观察到气候和人为引起的景观变化对狼獾栖息地和种群动态的累积影响。在与狼獾发生冲突的情况下,听取猎人和捕兽者的意见是获得更有洞察力的管理选择的一条途径。
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引用次数: 7
Change will be the constant – future environmental policy and governance challenges in Svalbard 变化将是永恒的——斯瓦尔巴群岛未来的环境政策和治理挑战
IF 2.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1679269
B. Kaltenborn, Willy Østreng, G. Hovelsrud
ABSTRACT Svalbard will gain increased strategic importance in the future development of the Norwegian Arctic. We argue from a perspective of international relations that the current Svalbard policies inadequately reflects the environmental, economic, social and political changes facing the archipelago. We ask what will be the paramount environmental management challenges facing Svalbard in the future, and how the governance system can deal with these? With the backdrop of climate change, developments throughout the Circumpolar Arctic suggest that the Polar region as such will experience increasing exploration and exploitation for natural resources, growth in marine traffic, different forms of tourism and militarization. Due to the structure of the Svalbard treaty, all policy measures and management interventions must be carefully balanced in the context of global geopolitics. Changing public values, climate change, oil- and gas exploration, marine harvesting, securitization, and expanding infrastructure and logistics will characterize the future. There is a need to develop expanded emergency response systems, an improved knowledge base for management including social science data, and better mechanisms for integrating science in policy- and decision-making. Environmental policy goals should also be revised to reflect the dynamic and uncertain state of social and environmental drivers of change already impacting Svalbard.
斯瓦尔巴群岛在挪威北极地区的未来发展中将具有越来越重要的战略意义。我们从国际关系的角度认为,目前的斯瓦尔巴政策没有充分反映该群岛面临的环境、经济、社会和政治变化。我们的问题是,未来斯瓦尔巴群岛面临的最重要的环境管理挑战是什么,治理体系如何应对这些挑战?在气候变化的背景下,整个环极北极地区的发展表明,极地地区本身将经历越来越多的自然资源勘探和开发、海上交通的增长、不同形式的旅游和军事化。由于斯瓦尔巴条约的结构,所有政策措施和管理干预必须在全球地缘政治背景下仔细平衡。不断变化的公众价值观、气候变化、石油和天然气勘探、海洋收获、证券化以及扩大基础设施和物流将是未来的特征。有必要发展扩大的应急反应系统,改进包括社会科学数据在内的管理知识库,以及更好地将科学纳入政策和决策的机制。还应修订环境政策目标,以反映已经影响到斯瓦尔巴群岛的社会和环境变化驱动因素的动态和不确定状态。
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引用次数: 18
Usteq: integrating indigenous knowledge and social and physical sciences to coproduce knowledge and support community-based adaptation Usteq:将土著知识与社会科学和自然科学相结合,共同生产知识并支持以社区为基础的适应
IF 2.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-10-29 DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1679271
R. Bronen, D. Pollock, J. Overbeck, D. Stevens, S. Natali, C. Maio
ABSTRACT The Arctic is in the midst of unprecedented and accelerating environmental change and will not return, for the foreseeable future, to a reliably frozen climate of recent past decades. Climate-forced population displacement, including community relocation, will be one of the greatest climate adaptation challenges for Alaska Native communities and the tribal, state and federal governing entities responsible for protecting community residents and providing technical assistance and resources. A new governance framework, based in human rights principles, must be created that can allow institutions to shift their efforts from protecting people in the places where they live to creating a relocation process when environmental and social thresholds are surpassed. Determining which communities are most likely to encounter displacement will require a sophisticated assessment of a community's ecosystem vulnerability to climate change, as well as the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of its social, economic and political structures. In Alaska, understanding the rate of environmental change through the integration of indigenous knowledge with physical and social science is essential. The article describes how this coproduction of knowledge is the foundation for this new governance framework and for transformational climate adaptation in Alaska.
北极正处于前所未有的加速环境变化之中,在可预见的未来,北极不会再回到过去几十年那种可靠的冰冻气候。气候迫使人口流离失所,包括社区搬迁,将是阿拉斯加土著社区和负责保护社区居民并提供技术援助和资源的部落、州和联邦管理实体面临的最大气候适应挑战之一。必须建立一个以人权原则为基础的新的治理框架,使机构能够将其努力从保护人们居住的地方转向在超过环境和社会门槛时建立一个重新安置进程。确定哪些社区最有可能遭遇流离失所,需要对社区生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性以及其社会、经济和政治结构的脆弱性和适应能力进行复杂的评估。在阿拉斯加,通过将土著知识与自然科学和社会科学相结合来了解环境变化的速度至关重要。本文描述了这种知识的共同生产如何成为这种新的治理框架和阿拉斯加转型气候适应的基础。
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引用次数: 22
Russia’s Far North: The Contested Energy Frontier 俄罗斯遥远的北方:有争议的能源前沿
IF 2.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/1088937x.2019.1679272
Nadir Kinossian
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引用次数: 3
Assessment of the cost of climate change impacts on critical infrastructure in the circumpolar Arctic 气候变化对北极圈内关键基础设施影响的成本评估
IF 2.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1686082
Luis Suter, D. Streletskiy, N. Shiklomanov
ABSTRACT The Arctic is experiencing pronounced climatic and environmental changes. These changes pose a risk to infrastructure, impacting the accessibility and development of remote locations and adding additional pressures on local and regional budgets. This study estimates the costs of fixed infrastructure affected by climate change impacts in the Arctic region, specifically on the impacts of permafrost thaw. Geotechnical models are forced by climate data from six CMIP5 models and used to evaluate changes in permafrost geotechnical characteristics between the decades of 2050–2059 and 2006–2015 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Country-specific infrastructure costs are used to estimate the value of infrastructure affected. The results show a 27% increase in infrastructure lifecycle replacement costs across the circumpolar permafrost regions. In addition, more than 14% of total fixed infrastructure assets are at risk of damages due to changes in specific environmental stressors, such as loss of permafrost bearing capacity and thaw subsidence due to ground ice melt. Regions of Northern Canada and Western Siberia are projected to be particularly affected and may require additional annual spending in the excess of 1% of annual GRP to support existing infrastructure into the future.
北极正经历着明显的气候和环境变化。这些变化对基础设施构成风险,影响偏远地区的可及性和发展,并给地方和区域预算增加额外压力。本研究估算了北极地区受气候变化影响的固定基础设施的成本,特别是永久冻土融化的影响。在RCP8.5情景下,基于六个CMIP5模式的气候数据强迫建立了土工模型,用于评估2050-2059年和2006-2015年间多年冻土土工特征的变化。具体国家的基础设施成本用于估计受影响的基础设施的价值。结果显示,环极永久冻土区的基础设施生命周期更新成本增加了27%。此外,超过14%的固定基础设施资产由于特定环境压力因素的变化而面临损坏的风险,例如永久冻土承载能力的丧失和地面冰融化导致的融化沉降。加拿大北部和西伯利亚西部地区预计将受到特别的影响,未来可能需要额外的年度支出,超过年度总产值的1%,以支持现有的基础设施。
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引用次数: 41
Land rights and resource conflicts in Nunavut 努纳武特地区的土地权利和资源冲突
IF 2.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-08-16 DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1648582
W. Bernauer
ABSTRACT The 1993 Nunavut Agreement was intended to help resolve disputes over resource extraction and facilitate responsible development in Nunavut. However, conflicts have persisted. In the Kivalliq region, debates over uranium mining and mining in caribou calving grounds have caused divisions between different representative organizations created by the Nunavut Agreement. Scholars have explained these conflicts with reference to the structures created by the Nunavut Agreement, especially the corporate structure of the territory's Inuit organizations. While this is an important factor driving these conflicts, I argue that the system of land rights created by the Nunavut Agreement, especially the extinguishment of Aboriginal title, is also an important causal factor in these disputes. I begin with an overview of the concept of Aboriginal title and its extinguishment in British-Canadian law. Next, I discuss the Nunavut Agreement's provisions for land rights, especially the exchange of Aboriginal title over a large territory for fee-simple ownership over relatively small parcels of land. This is followed by an examination of the conflicts over uranium mining and mining in calving grounds. I conclude that the provisions of the Nunavut agreement intended to provide ‘certainty’ for capital investment have in some cases had the opposite effect by fueling ongoing conflicts.
1993年《努纳武特协定》旨在帮助解决有关努纳武特地区资源开采的争端,促进负责任的开发。然而,冲突仍在继续。在基瓦利克地区,关于铀矿开采和在驯鹿产犊地采矿的争论造成了《努纳武特协定》所建立的不同代表组织之间的分歧。学者们参照《努纳武特协定》所创造的结构来解释这些冲突,特别是该领土因纽特人组织的公司结构。虽然这是导致这些冲突的一个重要因素,但我认为,《努纳武特协议》所创造的土地权利制度,特别是土著所有权的消灭,也是这些纠纷的一个重要因果因素。我首先概述了土著所有权的概念及其在英加法律中的消灭。接下来,我将讨论《努纳武特协定》中关于土地权的条款,特别是关于土著居民在大片土地上的所有权与相对较小的土地所有权的交换。接下来是对铀矿开采和在产犊地采矿的冲突的审查。我的结论是,努纳武特协定旨在为资本投资提供“确定性”的条款在某些情况下产生了相反的效果,助长了持续的冲突。
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引用次数: 1
Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic 改进北极参与性情景方法
IF 2.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-08-09 DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2019.1648583
A. Nilsson, M. Carson, D. Cost, B. Forbes, Riina Haavisto, A. Karlsdóttir, J. Larsen, Ø. Paasche, Simo Sarkki, S. Larsen, A. Pelyasov
ABSTRACT Participatory scenario methodologies are increasingly used for studying possible future developments in the Arctic. They have the potential to contribute to several high-priority tasks for Arctic research, such as integration of indigenous and local knowledge in futures studies, providing a platform for activating Arctic youth in shaping their futures, identifying Arctic-relevant indicators for sustainable development, and supporting decision-making towards sustainable futures. Yet, to achieve this potential, several methodological challenges need to be addressed. These include attention to whose voices are amplified or silenced in participatory research practices, with special attention to diversification and the engagement of youth. Given the historic and potential future role of disruptive events for Arctic development trajectories, methods are needed in participatory scenario exercises to include attention to the dynamics and consequences of such events and regime shifts. Participatory scenarios can also be further improved through approaches that effectively combine qualitative and quantitative information. Finally, there is a need for systematic studies of how the results of scenario exercises influence decision-making processes. This article elaborates on ways in which attention to these aspects can help make scenarios more robust for assessing a diversity of potential Arctic futures in times of rapid environmental and social change.
参与式情景方法越来越多地用于研究北极未来可能的发展。他们有潜力为北极研究的几项高优先级任务做出贡献,例如在未来研究中整合土著和当地知识,为激活北极青年塑造他们的未来提供平台,确定与北极相关的可持续发展指标,并为可持续未来的决策提供支持。然而,要实现这一潜力,需要解决几个方法上的挑战。这包括关注参与性研究实践中哪些人的声音被放大或被压制,特别关注多样化和青年的参与。鉴于破坏性事件对北极发展轨迹的历史和潜在的未来作用,参与性情景演习需要方法,包括对这些事件和政权转移的动态和后果的关注。参与性情景也可以通过有效结合定性和定量信息的方法进一步改进。最后,需要系统地研究情景练习的结果如何影响决策过程。本文详细阐述了在快速的环境和社会变化时期,对这些方面的关注可以帮助制定更可靠的情景,以评估北极潜在未来的多样性。
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引用次数: 27
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Polar Geography
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