Pub Date : 2021-05-18DOI: 10.1080/19439962.2021.1928352
Miao Yu, Jiancheng Long
Abstract Most of the existing research efforts have been conducted using the random parameters ordered possibility model to investigate the unobserved heterogeneity; however, relatively few research has explored the threshold heterogeneity. This research intends to examine factors affecting the driver injury severity in single-vehicle (SV) rollover crashes. Specific attention is paid to explore the unobserved heterogeneity of factors and threshold heterogeneity using the random thresholds random parameters hierarchical ordered logit (HOLIT) approach. The police-reported SV rollover crash data collected between 2014 and 2017 is used. Various driver, roadway, crash, and environmental attributes are examined as the explanatory variables. The comparison results suggest that the random parameters random thresholds HOLIT model produces superior data fit. Fifteen indicators significantly affect SV rollover crash severity. Three of the factors are random parameters. The thresholds are also randomly distributed, which are identified by the indicators of middle-aged drivers, old drivers, female drivers, number of lanes (>4) minor arterial, principal arterial, and SUV. Indicator variables of female-driver, number of lanes (>4), minor arterial, and principal arterial increase the values of thresholds, which result in more severe injuries outcomes.
{"title":"Injury severity analysis of drivers in single-vehicle rollover crashes: A random thresholds random parameters hierarchical ordered logit approach","authors":"Miao Yu, Jiancheng Long","doi":"10.1080/19439962.2021.1928352","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2021.1928352","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Most of the existing research efforts have been conducted using the random parameters ordered possibility model to investigate the unobserved heterogeneity; however, relatively few research has explored the threshold heterogeneity. This research intends to examine factors affecting the driver injury severity in single-vehicle (SV) rollover crashes. Specific attention is paid to explore the unobserved heterogeneity of factors and threshold heterogeneity using the random thresholds random parameters hierarchical ordered logit (HOLIT) approach. The police-reported SV rollover crash data collected between 2014 and 2017 is used. Various driver, roadway, crash, and environmental attributes are examined as the explanatory variables. The comparison results suggest that the random parameters random thresholds HOLIT model produces superior data fit. Fifteen indicators significantly affect SV rollover crash severity. Three of the factors are random parameters. The thresholds are also randomly distributed, which are identified by the indicators of middle-aged drivers, old drivers, female drivers, number of lanes (>4) minor arterial, principal arterial, and SUV. Indicator variables of female-driver, number of lanes (>4), minor arterial, and principal arterial increase the values of thresholds, which result in more severe injuries outcomes.","PeriodicalId":46672,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transportation Safety & Security","volume":"134 1","pages":"1378 - 1394"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2021-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74707780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Distracted driving is a critical factor affecting traffic safety. Although previous studies have been devoted to exploring the effects of driver distraction on crash risks, few of them are available to quantitatively analyze the impacts on crash injury outcomes. Thus, the study aims to examine the effects of distracted driving on injury severities for both at-fault and not-at-fault drivers. Propensity score matching method is adopted to balance the covariates between the data sets of distracting and normal driving, so as to avoid the potential effects caused by confounding factors. Average treatment effect is calculated to quantify the impacts of distraction on specific injury severity levels. The results indicate that 1) drivers are inclined to be distracted in the scenarios of roadways with higher speed limits, non-peak hours, intersection area, sunlight, cloudy weather, young and female drivers, and heavy vehicles; 2) for the at-fault drivers, the distraction appears to increase the occurrence probabilities of both fatal and injury crashes; and 3) as for the not-at-fault drivers, the distraction can lead to the increase of possible injury crashes. The study confirms the significant causal effects of driver distraction on crash injury severities and serves to propose the countermeasures to reduce the distracted driving.
{"title":"Examining the causal effects of distracted driving on crash injury severities","authors":"Guopeng Zhang, Qi Liang, Xinguo Jiang, Shengde Yang, Yingfei Fan, Xin Qiu, Tangwei Yao, Chengyuan Mao","doi":"10.1080/19439962.2021.1923102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2021.1923102","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Distracted driving is a critical factor affecting traffic safety. Although previous studies have been devoted to exploring the effects of driver distraction on crash risks, few of them are available to quantitatively analyze the impacts on crash injury outcomes. Thus, the study aims to examine the effects of distracted driving on injury severities for both at-fault and not-at-fault drivers. Propensity score matching method is adopted to balance the covariates between the data sets of distracting and normal driving, so as to avoid the potential effects caused by confounding factors. Average treatment effect is calculated to quantify the impacts of distraction on specific injury severity levels. The results indicate that 1) drivers are inclined to be distracted in the scenarios of roadways with higher speed limits, non-peak hours, intersection area, sunlight, cloudy weather, young and female drivers, and heavy vehicles; 2) for the at-fault drivers, the distraction appears to increase the occurrence probabilities of both fatal and injury crashes; and 3) as for the not-at-fault drivers, the distraction can lead to the increase of possible injury crashes. The study confirms the significant causal effects of driver distraction on crash injury severities and serves to propose the countermeasures to reduce the distracted driving.","PeriodicalId":46672,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transportation Safety & Security","volume":"36 1","pages":"1358 - 1377"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2021-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74454038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-14DOI: 10.1080/19439962.2021.1919262
F. Deflorio, A. Carboni
Abstract The current paper proposes a data analysis method to evaluate the impact of vehicle-technology evolution on road safety based on a recent and extensive accident dataset (1.3 million vehicles in 2017 and 1.7 million in 2018, Italy). Seventeen models of vehicles equipped with an event data recorder were selected for acquiring data, including the distances travelled by the vehicles during the year, and were aggregated by their year of initial registration and model. This unique information in conjunction with the accident datasets enabled a consistent estimation of risk exposure and accident rates for various subsets of vehicles. Thereafter, the comparative analysis of accident rates revealed an improvement in the road safety along with a significant variation between various vehicle models that approximately ranged from 5–10 accidents per million kilometres. Moreover, the accident rate reduced after the electronic stability control system was mandated for vehicles in the market, exhibiting variations in the range of 15–30% for serious accidents that were dependent on the vehicle model. Further safety improvements were identified for the latest generation of vehicles equipped with more advanced technologies such as the autonomous emergency braking that can reduce the accident rate up to 38%.
{"title":"Safety systems and vehicle generations: Analysis of accident and travel data collected using event data recorders","authors":"F. Deflorio, A. Carboni","doi":"10.1080/19439962.2021.1919262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2021.1919262","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The current paper proposes a data analysis method to evaluate the impact of vehicle-technology evolution on road safety based on a recent and extensive accident dataset (1.3 million vehicles in 2017 and 1.7 million in 2018, Italy). Seventeen models of vehicles equipped with an event data recorder were selected for acquiring data, including the distances travelled by the vehicles during the year, and were aggregated by their year of initial registration and model. This unique information in conjunction with the accident datasets enabled a consistent estimation of risk exposure and accident rates for various subsets of vehicles. Thereafter, the comparative analysis of accident rates revealed an improvement in the road safety along with a significant variation between various vehicle models that approximately ranged from 5–10 accidents per million kilometres. Moreover, the accident rate reduced after the electronic stability control system was mandated for vehicles in the market, exhibiting variations in the range of 15–30% for serious accidents that were dependent on the vehicle model. Further safety improvements were identified for the latest generation of vehicles equipped with more advanced technologies such as the autonomous emergency braking that can reduce the accident rate up to 38%.","PeriodicalId":46672,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transportation Safety & Security","volume":"36 1","pages":"1307 - 1332"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2021-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78691511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-14DOI: 10.1080/19439962.2021.1916666
Shunping Wang, Fengmei Li, Zhengwu Wang, Jie Wang
Abstract This study proposes a random parameter bivariate probit model to analyze risk factors on the crash injury severity of both motorcycle riders and passengers in a single modeling framework. The proposed model can not only account for the underlying correlation of common factors affecting the rider and its pillion passenger simultaneously, but also can capture the unobserved heterogeneity across crash samples. The case analysis is based on 3665 motorcycle-carrying-passenger crashes in Hunan province of China. Model comparisons show that the proposed random parameter bivariate probit model outperforms two conventional models in the goodness-of-fit. The results of parameter estimations show that, age and gender differences in passengers pose significant effects on injury severity of the rider in crashes. Specifically, when carrying a vulnerable passenger including women, children and elders, the rider is less likely to sustain severe injuries. But for injury severity of the passenger, these vulnerable passengers are more likely to suffer from severe injuries. Apart form age and gender attributes, factors including collision objects, helmet use, drunk riding, night without lights, peak periods, high-speed roads have significant effects on rider injury and/or passenger injury. Relevant suggestions to alleviate the injury severity for motorcycle-carrying-passengers crashes are recommended.
{"title":"A random parameter bivariate probit model for injury severities of riders and pillion passengers in motorcycle crashes","authors":"Shunping Wang, Fengmei Li, Zhengwu Wang, Jie Wang","doi":"10.1080/19439962.2021.1916666","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2021.1916666","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study proposes a random parameter bivariate probit model to analyze risk factors on the crash injury severity of both motorcycle riders and passengers in a single modeling framework. The proposed model can not only account for the underlying correlation of common factors affecting the rider and its pillion passenger simultaneously, but also can capture the unobserved heterogeneity across crash samples. The case analysis is based on 3665 motorcycle-carrying-passenger crashes in Hunan province of China. Model comparisons show that the proposed random parameter bivariate probit model outperforms two conventional models in the goodness-of-fit. The results of parameter estimations show that, age and gender differences in passengers pose significant effects on injury severity of the rider in crashes. Specifically, when carrying a vulnerable passenger including women, children and elders, the rider is less likely to sustain severe injuries. But for injury severity of the passenger, these vulnerable passengers are more likely to suffer from severe injuries. Apart form age and gender attributes, factors including collision objects, helmet use, drunk riding, night without lights, peak periods, high-speed roads have significant effects on rider injury and/or passenger injury. Relevant suggestions to alleviate the injury severity for motorcycle-carrying-passengers crashes are recommended.","PeriodicalId":46672,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transportation Safety & Security","volume":"559 1","pages":"1289 - 1306"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2021-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77089716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-20DOI: 10.1080/19439962.2021.1909681
Jianjun Wu, James Thorne-Large, Pengfei Zhang
Abstract Modern navigation heavily relies on technology. A modern ship's bridge is a high-tech centre with various equipment, such as Radar/ARPA, Automatic Identification System (AIS), Electronic Chart Display and Information Systems (ECDIS), Global Positioning System (GPS), satellite communications, and so on. The ability to operate various maritime technologies is among the most important part of navigation officers’ knowhow. However, as any technology can be an error, there will be failure happen on maritime technologies, such as navigational sensors and computer-based bridge systems. As an unsafe behaviour, over-reliance on technologies in watch keeping may have disastrous consequences. This article analysed the relationship between safe navigation of a ship and an increasing reliance placed on technology by master and officers. It identified at which stage a reliance on technology becomes an over-reliance, and the major causes of this, such as insufficient training and fatigue. Finally, it examines the consequences of an over-reliance on technology and makes some proposals on how these consequences can be prevented.
{"title":"Safety first: The risk of over-reliance on technology in navigation","authors":"Jianjun Wu, James Thorne-Large, Pengfei Zhang","doi":"10.1080/19439962.2021.1909681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2021.1909681","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Modern navigation heavily relies on technology. A modern ship's bridge is a high-tech centre with various equipment, such as Radar/ARPA, Automatic Identification System (AIS), Electronic Chart Display and Information Systems (ECDIS), Global Positioning System (GPS), satellite communications, and so on. The ability to operate various maritime technologies is among the most important part of navigation officers’ knowhow. However, as any technology can be an error, there will be failure happen on maritime technologies, such as navigational sensors and computer-based bridge systems. As an unsafe behaviour, over-reliance on technologies in watch keeping may have disastrous consequences. This article analysed the relationship between safe navigation of a ship and an increasing reliance placed on technology by master and officers. It identified at which stage a reliance on technology becomes an over-reliance, and the major causes of this, such as insufficient training and fatigue. Finally, it examines the consequences of an over-reliance on technology and makes some proposals on how these consequences can be prevented.","PeriodicalId":46672,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transportation Safety & Security","volume":"102 1","pages":"1220 - 1246"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2021-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80620154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-08DOI: 10.1080/19439962.2021.1909682
Li Li, Guangming Li, Dong Zhang, Rui Fang, Wenchen Yang
Abstract Emergency escape ramps (EERs) is an infrastructure of mountain freeways to stop runaway vehicles. As the last defence of vehicle occupants’ safety, the performance of EERs in reducing crash injury severity is a concern for stakeholders of road safety. Based on crash records collected on a mountain freeway equipped with five EERs, this study compared the injury severity of crashes on EERs and other road sections, and identified the factors that significantly influence injury severity in the two conditions. Estimations of the parameter coefficients and marginal effects of a random parameters ordered probit model were used to infer EER performance under the impacts of various factors. The results confirm the effectiveness of EERs on the reduction of crash injury severity. The protection function of EERs is weakened by nighttime, the rollover status of crashed vehicle, multi-vehicle collisions, improper design or installation of the roadside infrastructure, drivers’ unfamiliarity with local driving conditions, and crashed vehicle weight. The paper compares the findings with those of previous studies and proposes some recommendations to improve EER performance for occupant and property protection on mountain freeways.
{"title":"Effects of emergency escape ramps on crash injury severity reduction on mountain freeways: A case study in China","authors":"Li Li, Guangming Li, Dong Zhang, Rui Fang, Wenchen Yang","doi":"10.1080/19439962.2021.1909682","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2021.1909682","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Emergency escape ramps (EERs) is an infrastructure of mountain freeways to stop runaway vehicles. As the last defence of vehicle occupants’ safety, the performance of EERs in reducing crash injury severity is a concern for stakeholders of road safety. Based on crash records collected on a mountain freeway equipped with five EERs, this study compared the injury severity of crashes on EERs and other road sections, and identified the factors that significantly influence injury severity in the two conditions. Estimations of the parameter coefficients and marginal effects of a random parameters ordered probit model were used to infer EER performance under the impacts of various factors. The results confirm the effectiveness of EERs on the reduction of crash injury severity. The protection function of EERs is weakened by nighttime, the rollover status of crashed vehicle, multi-vehicle collisions, improper design or installation of the roadside infrastructure, drivers’ unfamiliarity with local driving conditions, and crashed vehicle weight. The paper compares the findings with those of previous studies and proposes some recommendations to improve EER performance for occupant and property protection on mountain freeways.","PeriodicalId":46672,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transportation Safety & Security","volume":"13 1","pages":"1269 - 1288"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2021-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79491886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract A questionnaire was designed to investigate the psychologies and behaviors of crowds under special events such as fires, heavy crowd flows, and explosions. Five hundred and fifty-five valid questionnaires were gathered and the information obtained was statistically analyzed. Based on a logistic model, the study analyzed the influence of gender, age, occupation, level of education, and degree of safety knowledge regarding crowd evacuation behavior. The correlation between the characteristics of the crowd and the reactions of the crowd based on evacuation psychologies and behaviors under special events was determined using the chi-square test. The results led to the following conclusions. First, gender, age, level of education, and degree of safety knowledge are significantly correlated with the psychological and behavioral responses of crowds. Second, though most crowds experience fear during a special event due to their lack of experience in coping with such an occurrence, males remain calmer than females during such events. Finally, the greater the degree of safety knowledge possessed by those in the crowd, the more reasonable and efficient the evacuation process is likely to be. This study provides data to support subway evacuation research and it promotes the formulation of reasonable and effective emergency evacuation plans.
{"title":"Analysis of psychologies and behaviors of subway crowds under special events based on survey","authors":"Fuquan Pan, Lixia Zhang, R. Qi, Changxi Ma, Jinshun Yang, Hailiang Tang","doi":"10.1080/19439962.2019.1645774","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2019.1645774","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A questionnaire was designed to investigate the psychologies and behaviors of crowds under special events such as fires, heavy crowd flows, and explosions. Five hundred and fifty-five valid questionnaires were gathered and the information obtained was statistically analyzed. Based on a logistic model, the study analyzed the influence of gender, age, occupation, level of education, and degree of safety knowledge regarding crowd evacuation behavior. The correlation between the characteristics of the crowd and the reactions of the crowd based on evacuation psychologies and behaviors under special events was determined using the chi-square test. The results led to the following conclusions. First, gender, age, level of education, and degree of safety knowledge are significantly correlated with the psychological and behavioral responses of crowds. Second, though most crowds experience fear during a special event due to their lack of experience in coping with such an occurrence, males remain calmer than females during such events. Finally, the greater the degree of safety knowledge possessed by those in the crowd, the more reasonable and efficient the evacuation process is likely to be. This study provides data to support subway evacuation research and it promotes the formulation of reasonable and effective emergency evacuation plans.","PeriodicalId":46672,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transportation Safety & Security","volume":"43 1","pages":"460 - 475"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87295107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-03-25DOI: 10.1080/19439962.2021.1898069
Arash Khoda Bakhshi, Mohamed M. Ahmed
Abstract Real-time risk assessment studies have investigated a limited length of corridors. However, the necessity of assessing the safety performance of Connected Vehicles (CVs) requires looking into an entire corridor. Aligned with the CV Pilot Program on 402-miles Interstate-80 in Wyoming, this study serves as a baseline to quantify the safety performance of the corridor during CV pre-deployment. Real-time traffic-related predictors were characterized to capture the spatial variation in traffic characteristics, both longitudinally and laterally. Nine Crash Prediction Models (CPMs) were conducted following the matched-case control design within two main parts. First, important predictors were detected using three feature selection techniques; Corrected-Impurity Importance (CII), Mean Decrease Impurity, and Mean Decrease Accuracy. Secondly, for each of the three sets of selected features, three different Logistic Regression models were developed; the Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Generalized Linear Model, and Generalized Nonlinear Model. The combined GAM and CII outperformed other CPMs by obtaining minimum error, maximum prediction performance, and detecting a larger number of significant predictors, which would enhance the safety performance measurement of the few numbers of CVs by comparing CVs pre- to post-deployment. Findings showed that investigating individual lanes is beneficial to comprehend crash patterns on corridors with comparatively less traffic volume.
{"title":"Real-time crash prediction for a long low-traffic volume corridor using corrected-impurity importance and semi-parametric generalized additive model","authors":"Arash Khoda Bakhshi, Mohamed M. Ahmed","doi":"10.1080/19439962.2021.1898069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2021.1898069","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Real-time risk assessment studies have investigated a limited length of corridors. However, the necessity of assessing the safety performance of Connected Vehicles (CVs) requires looking into an entire corridor. Aligned with the CV Pilot Program on 402-miles Interstate-80 in Wyoming, this study serves as a baseline to quantify the safety performance of the corridor during CV pre-deployment. Real-time traffic-related predictors were characterized to capture the spatial variation in traffic characteristics, both longitudinally and laterally. Nine Crash Prediction Models (CPMs) were conducted following the matched-case control design within two main parts. First, important predictors were detected using three feature selection techniques; Corrected-Impurity Importance (CII), Mean Decrease Impurity, and Mean Decrease Accuracy. Secondly, for each of the three sets of selected features, three different Logistic Regression models were developed; the Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Generalized Linear Model, and Generalized Nonlinear Model. The combined GAM and CII outperformed other CPMs by obtaining minimum error, maximum prediction performance, and detecting a larger number of significant predictors, which would enhance the safety performance measurement of the few numbers of CVs by comparing CVs pre- to post-deployment. Findings showed that investigating individual lanes is beneficial to comprehend crash patterns on corridors with comparatively less traffic volume.","PeriodicalId":46672,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transportation Safety & Security","volume":"4 1","pages":"1165 - 1200"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2021-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84879779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-03-22DOI: 10.1080/19439962.2021.1898068
Jiwon Lee, T. Gim
Abstract As ageing population is growing faster, traffic accidents involving elderly drivers become a serious social problem in South Korea. The present study aims to examine the impact of environmental characteristics on the injury severity of accidents involving elderly drivers in Seoul, South Korea. To achieve the purpose, the study divided elderly drivers into the following two groups: young-elderly drivers aged 65–69 years and middle- and old-aged drivers over 69 years old. The study also analysed non-elderly drivers aged 30 to 64 years as the comparative group. The study used the generalised ordered logit model, which is widely used to analyse data with ordinal scales. The findings from the study draw attention to the fact that (1) the characteristics of traffic accidents by injury severity considerably differed by age group. (2) risk of accident severity involving elderly drivers increase in areas with heavy traffic volumes and facilities that may create a complex driving condition to elderly drivers, (3) since elderly drivers tend to require longer response time with impaired vision under complex driving environment, it increased the risk of traffic accidents that older drivers face a higher risk of fatal injuries than younger counterparts. Thus, in order to reduce traffic accidents involving elderly drivers, the traffic safety policies should take environmental characteristics as well as the human factor concerning elderly drivers’ difficulties because of ageing and longer cognitive response time. This study contributes to the research in traffic accidents involving elderly drivers in that not only the accident characteristics (human factors, road condition, weather), mostly used for traffic accident analysis, but also environmental factors concerning the urban characteristics of Seoul Metropolitan City were analysed to compare the risk of traffic accidents and accident severity by age groups.
{"title":"Analysing the injury severity characteristics of urban elderly drivers’ traffic accidents through the generalised ordered logit model: A case of Seoul, South Korea","authors":"Jiwon Lee, T. Gim","doi":"10.1080/19439962.2021.1898068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2021.1898068","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As ageing population is growing faster, traffic accidents involving elderly drivers become a serious social problem in South Korea. The present study aims to examine the impact of environmental characteristics on the injury severity of accidents involving elderly drivers in Seoul, South Korea. To achieve the purpose, the study divided elderly drivers into the following two groups: young-elderly drivers aged 65–69 years and middle- and old-aged drivers over 69 years old. The study also analysed non-elderly drivers aged 30 to 64 years as the comparative group. The study used the generalised ordered logit model, which is widely used to analyse data with ordinal scales. The findings from the study draw attention to the fact that (1) the characteristics of traffic accidents by injury severity considerably differed by age group. (2) risk of accident severity involving elderly drivers increase in areas with heavy traffic volumes and facilities that may create a complex driving condition to elderly drivers, (3) since elderly drivers tend to require longer response time with impaired vision under complex driving environment, it increased the risk of traffic accidents that older drivers face a higher risk of fatal injuries than younger counterparts. Thus, in order to reduce traffic accidents involving elderly drivers, the traffic safety policies should take environmental characteristics as well as the human factor concerning elderly drivers’ difficulties because of ageing and longer cognitive response time. This study contributes to the research in traffic accidents involving elderly drivers in that not only the accident characteristics (human factors, road condition, weather), mostly used for traffic accident analysis, but also environmental factors concerning the urban characteristics of Seoul Metropolitan City were analysed to compare the risk of traffic accidents and accident severity by age groups.","PeriodicalId":46672,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transportation Safety & Security","volume":"70 1","pages":"1139 - 1164"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2021-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89517522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-03-12DOI: 10.1080/19439962.2021.1893875
Shiwen Zhang, Shengdi Chen, Yingying Xing, H. M. Zhang, Jian Lu, S. Long
Abstract Traffic safety for hazardous material (hazmat) transportation has not been studied well at a macro level in recent years. A Bayesian negative binomial conditional autoregressive safety model was used within Chinese provinces and cities. A total of 1,229 hazmat transportation crashes in China were collected from the years 2015 to 2017. The frequency of hazmat transportation crashes and the frequency of severe crashes including fatalities and serious injuries were studied in relation to socioeconomic factors, road classification, and the scale of hazmat transportation. The results show that higher crash frequencies are associated with a greater gross domestic product index, increasing road densities, and number of hazmat transportation vehicles and hazmat drivers per vehicle. The frequency of severe crashes tends to be higher in provinces with greater populations, increasing road densities, mileage of low-grade roads, and number of companies. The urban road mileage and number of hazmat loaders are negatively associated with the total number of hazmat crashes and severe crashes. Additionally, the hospital density also has a negative correlation with the frequency of severe traffic crashes. These results could help hazmat transportation managers and planners determine the risk factors of hazmat crashes on a macro level and develop appropriate measures for improving hazmat transportation safety.
{"title":"Macro-level hazardous material transportation safety analysis in China using a Bayesian negative binomial model combined with conditional autoregression prior","authors":"Shiwen Zhang, Shengdi Chen, Yingying Xing, H. M. Zhang, Jian Lu, S. Long","doi":"10.1080/19439962.2021.1893875","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2021.1893875","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Traffic safety for hazardous material (hazmat) transportation has not been studied well at a macro level in recent years. A Bayesian negative binomial conditional autoregressive safety model was used within Chinese provinces and cities. A total of 1,229 hazmat transportation crashes in China were collected from the years 2015 to 2017. The frequency of hazmat transportation crashes and the frequency of severe crashes including fatalities and serious injuries were studied in relation to socioeconomic factors, road classification, and the scale of hazmat transportation. The results show that higher crash frequencies are associated with a greater gross domestic product index, increasing road densities, and number of hazmat transportation vehicles and hazmat drivers per vehicle. The frequency of severe crashes tends to be higher in provinces with greater populations, increasing road densities, mileage of low-grade roads, and number of companies. The urban road mileage and number of hazmat loaders are negatively associated with the total number of hazmat crashes and severe crashes. Additionally, the hospital density also has a negative correlation with the frequency of severe traffic crashes. These results could help hazmat transportation managers and planners determine the risk factors of hazmat crashes on a macro level and develop appropriate measures for improving hazmat transportation safety.","PeriodicalId":46672,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transportation Safety & Security","volume":"52 1","pages":"1044 - 1062"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2021-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91370327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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