Borsa Istanbul Review最新文献

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External governance monitoring and corporate behavior: Impact of negative media coverage pressure on ESG rating divergence 外部治理监测与公司行为：媒体负面报道压力对ESG评级差异的影响

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.05.005

Asif Ali , Farman Ali

From a global warming perspective, an enterprise's environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance and disclosure have received significant attention from external stakeholders, e.g., green investors. Based on agenda-setting theory, this study empirically explores how negative media coverage pressure influences ESG rating divergence in China. The empirical findings suggest that negative media coverage pressure increases ESG rating divergence—these outcomes remain valid after a series of robustness and additional tests. The mediating effects of the outcomes show that negative media coverage pressure increases ESG rating divergence by exacerbating external attention tracking. Furthermore, the impact of negative media coverage pressure on ESG rating divergence is more pronounced in enterprises with low institutional investor shareholding, non-state-owned firms, corporations with low reputations, and firms with low audit quality. In sum, this study offers insight into how negative media coverage pressure influences ESG rating divergence and presents practical recommendations for corporations to improve the information disclosure framework.

从全球变暖的角度来看，企业的环境、社会和治理（ESG）绩效和信息披露受到了外部利益相关者（如绿色投资者）的极大关注。本研究基于议程设置理论，实证探讨媒体负面报道压力对中国企业ESG评级分化的影响。实证结果表明，负面媒体报道压力增加了ESG评级差异，这些结果在经过一系列稳健性和附加测试后仍然有效。结果的中介效应表明，负面媒体报道压力通过加剧外部注意力跟踪而加剧ESG评级分化。此外，媒体负面报道压力对ESG评级差异的影响在机构投资者持股比例较低的企业、非国有企业、声誉较低的企业和审计质量较低的企业中更为明显。综上所述，本研究揭示了负面媒体报道压力对企业ESG评级差异的影响，并为企业完善信息披露框架提出了切实可行的建议。

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引用次数: 0

Policy support and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in BRICS-T countries: The role of financial development, markets, and institutions 政策支持与金砖国家农业温室气体排放：金融发展、市场和机构的作用

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.05.004

Ahmet Bagci , Yasin Sogut , Oguzhan Bozatli , Tunahan Degirmenci

This study explores the impact of agricultural support policies on greenhouse gas emissions in BRICS-T countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Türkiye), emphasizing the role of financial development, market structures, and institutions. Using annual data from 2000 to 2021, the research employs advanced panel time-series econometric techniques, including the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator and, the Westerlund and Edgerton cointegration test, to assess long-term relationships. Findings indicate that economic growth significantly contributes to rising agricultural emissions, while the influence of financial development varies across countries. In Türkiye and South Africa, financial institutions play a crucial role in promoting sustainable agricultural investments, thereby helping to mitigate emissions. Policy recommendations include redesigning subsidy mechanisms to support eco-friendly farming, integrating carbon pricing into agricultural strategies, and strengthening financial institutions’ role in green investments. By examining the intersection of agriculture, emissions, and finance, this study offers valuable insights for sustainable policy development in emerging economies.

本研究探讨了农业支持政策对金砖五国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非和土耳其）温室气体排放的影响，强调了金融发展、市场结构和制度的作用。该研究使用2000年至2021年的年度数据，采用先进的面板时间序列计量经济学技术，包括增强平均组（AMG）估计器和Westerlund和Edgerton协整检验，以评估长期关系。研究结果表明，经济增长显著促进了农业排放的增加，而金融发展的影响因国而异。在土耳其和南非，金融机构在促进可持续农业投资方面发挥着至关重要的作用，从而有助于减少排放。政策建议包括重新设计补贴机制以支持生态友好型农业，将碳定价纳入农业战略，以及加强金融机构在绿色投资中的作用。通过研究农业、排放和金融的交叉关系，本研究为新兴经济体的可持续政策制定提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Are investor preferences for ESG driven by sentiment and national culture? 投资者对ESG的偏好是否受到情绪和国家文化的驱动？

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.05.002

Gizem Arı , Serra Eren Sarıoğlu

This study examines changes in the environmental, social, and governance (ESG)–return relationship in terms of sentiment and national culture using a large international sample for the 2005–2023 period. First, we confirm that portfolios with higher ESG scores exhibit lower expected returns based on findings from ten different ESG–based portfolios. We then prove, through a cross–sectional analysis, that a negative ESG premium is due to mispricing based on firm–specific characteristics. ESG premium is evident during periods of low investor sentiment. Furthermore, the impact of ESG premium differs across countries, according to uncertainty avoidance and tolerance. This shift toward improved sustainability appears to be heavily influenced by investors’ preferences, especially in nations with high uncertainty tolerance when sentiment is low.

本研究使用2005-2023年期间的大型国际样本，从情绪和民族文化的角度考察了环境、社会和治理(ESG) -回报关系的变化。首先，根据10个不同的ESG投资组合的研究结果，我们证实了ESG得分较高的投资组合表现出较低的预期回报。然后，我们通过横断面分析证明，负ESG溢价是由于基于公司特定特征的错误定价造成的。ESG溢价在投资者情绪低迷时期表现明显。此外，根据对不确定性的规避和容忍，ESG溢价的影响在不同国家有所不同。这种向提高可持续性的转变似乎在很大程度上受到投资者偏好的影响，尤其是在投资者情绪低落时对不确定性容忍度高的国家。

引用次数: 0

Integrated methodology for estimating zero-coupon yield curves: Evidence from Turkish government nominal bonds 估计零息票收益率曲线的综合方法：来自土耳其政府名义债券的证据

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.05.003

M. Ünal Paçcı , Nesrin Okay

This study estimates the zero-coupon yield curves for Turkish government nominal bonds from February 2005 to June 2022 using the Nelson–Siegel–Svensson parametric model. We implement a weighting scheme in the objective function, where squared pricing errors are weighted by the inverse of the square root of the bond duration. This weighting scheme strikes a better balance between the short- and long-maturity bonds during the optimization process. Moreover, by employing four nonlinear optimization algorithms and three parameter initialization approaches, we aim to prevent premature convergence to local optima and improve the quality of fit. Our integrated methodology yields reasonably low in-sample root mean squared error values for price errors and offers clear guidance and a framework for researchers in constructing zero-coupon yield curves.

本研究使用Nelson-Siegel-Svensson参数模型估计了2005年2月至2022年6月土耳其政府名义债券的零票息收益率曲线。我们在目标函数中实现了一种加权方案，其中定价误差的平方由债券持续时间平方根的倒数加权。该权重方案在优化过程中较好地平衡了短期和长期债券之间的关系。此外，通过采用四种非线性优化算法和三种参数初始化方法，我们旨在防止过早收敛到局部最优，提高拟合质量。我们的综合方法为价格误差提供了相当低的样本内均方根误差值，为研究人员构建零息债券收益率曲线提供了明确的指导和框架。

引用次数: 0

From tweets to markets: Lebanon’s policy uncertainty and volatility spillovers in MENA stock markets 从推特到市场：黎巴嫩的政策不确定性和波动对中东和北非股市的溢出效应

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.04.004

Sumru Altug , Majdy Barakat , Leila Dagher , Erhan Uluceviz

This paper examines the spillover effects of policy uncertainty in Lebanon on stock market volatility in seven MENA countries using a network connectedness approach. For this purpose, it constructs an economic policy uncertainty index for Lebanon using data extracted from Twitter (now X) for the period January 1, 2011, to January 18, 2023. The Twitter-based Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (TEPU) acts as the most important network node for transmitting the policy uncertainty that occurred in Lebanon during various episodes within the sample period. The stock markets of Kuwait and Qatar, on the one hand, and those of Egypt and Jordan, on the other, are the largest net recipients of this policy uncertainty during such episodes. The TEPU for Lebanon, together with the Saudi Arabian stock market, plays an important role in terms of shock propagation during 2017–2018, when political tensions with Saudi Arabia spiraled. However, on average, the Saudi Arabian and United Arab Emirates stock markets account for the largest fraction of the shock propagation values, attesting to their importance in the MENA financial markets.

本文采用网络连通性方法考察了黎巴嫩政策不确定性对七个中东和北非国家股市波动的溢出效应。为此，本文使用从Twitter（现为X）提取的2011年1月1日至2023年1月18日期间的数据，为黎巴嫩构建了一个经济政策不确定性指数。基于twitter的经济政策不确定性指数（TEPU）是传递黎巴嫩在样本期内不同时期发生的政策不确定性的最重要网络节点。在这种情况下，科威特和卡塔尔的股票市场以及埃及和约旦的股票市场是这种政策不确定性的最大净接受者。黎巴嫩的TEPU与沙特阿拉伯股市一起，在2017-2018年与沙特阿拉伯的政治紧张局势螺旋式上升期间，在冲击传播方面发挥了重要作用。然而，平均而言，沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国的股票市场在冲击传播值中所占的比例最大，证明了它们在中东和北非金融市场中的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

ESG ratings and firm performance: The moderating role of ESG rating disagreement ESG评级与企业绩效：ESG评级分歧的调节作用

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.05.001

Chengcheng Liu , Qianhui Wu , Yu-En Lin

We examine the impact of ESG rating disagreement on the relationship between ESG ratings and firm performance. We find that ESG ratings are negatively associated with firm performance. Moreover, ESG rating disagreement positively moderates the relationship between ESG ratings and firm performance, weakening the negative impact of ESG ratings on firm performance. Furthermore, additional tests suggest that ESG rating disagreement plays a moderating role only for firms with better disclosure quality and worse corporate governance, greater environmental munificence and dynamism, smaller size, and greater social capital. Overall, our findings support agency theory and the resource-based view, highlighting the importance of rating consistency and the role of high ESG rating scores as an intangible resource that indicates agency problems. However, ESG rating disagreement also serves a governance function.

我们研究了ESG评级分歧对ESG评级与企业绩效之间关系的影响。我们发现ESG评级与公司绩效呈负相关。此外，ESG评级差异正向调节ESG评级与企业绩效的关系，减弱了ESG评级对企业绩效的负面影响。此外，额外的测试表明，ESG评级分歧仅对披露质量较好、公司治理较差、环境慷慨度和活力较大、规模较小、社会资本较大的公司起调节作用。总体而言，我们的研究结果支持代理理论和资源基础观点，突出了评级一致性的重要性，以及高ESG评级分数作为表明代理问题的无形资源的作用。然而，ESG评级分歧也有治理功能。

引用次数: 0

Investor trends during periods of geopolitical risk in Türkiye: Which assets serve as safe havens? 地缘政治风险时期的投资者趋势：哪些资产可以作为避险资产？

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.04.005

Durmuş Yıldırım , Mirac Eren , Mesut Dogan

This study investigates the safe-haven properties of different asset classes during periods of geopolitical risk in Türkiye and examines their comovement with the Geopolitical Risk Index. The research covers the period from January 2010 to January 2023 and employs wavelet coherence analysis and quantile-on-quantile regression methods. The findings reveal that geopolitical risk has varying long- and short-term effects on financial markets and housing prices. Additionally, our results show that the housing market can anticipate geopolitical risk fluctuations in the long run, and investors tend to shift to real estate during high-risk periods. Although gold acts as a safe haven in both the long and short run when geopolitical risk rises, oil prices respond in various ways in terms of direction and timing. Furthermore, fixed-income instruments are not perceived as safe-haven assets during periods of heightened geopolitical risk; instead, they tend to increase in parallel with perceptions of rising risk. The findings offer valuable insights into how investors formulate strategies during periods of uncertainty and have significant implications for policy makers and market participants.

本研究考察了日本地缘政治风险时期不同资产类别的避险属性，并考察了它们与地缘政治风险指数的变动。研究时间为2010年1月至2023年1月，采用小波相干分析和分位数对分位数回归方法。研究结果表明，地缘政治风险对金融市场和房价的长期和短期影响各不相同。此外，我们的研究结果表明，房地产市场可以预测长期地缘政治风险波动，投资者倾向于在高风险时期转向房地产。尽管在地缘政治风险上升时，黄金在长期和短期内都是安全的避风港，但油价在方向和时机方面的反应各不相同。此外，在地缘政治风险加剧期间，固定收益工具不被视为避险资产；相反，它们往往与风险上升的感知同步增加。这些发现为投资者如何在不确定时期制定策略提供了有价值的见解，并对政策制定者和市场参与者具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Unveiling the dynamic interconnectedness of fossil fuels, clean energy, water, and technology assets 揭示化石燃料、清洁能源、水和技术资产之间的动态相互联系

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.04.003

Melike Aktaş Bozkurt

This study explores dynamic interconnectedness and volatility spillovers among four asset clusters—brown (fossil fuels), green (clean energy), blue (water-related), and orange (technology)—from April 2014 to October 2024, incorporating major geopolitical events, such as COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Israel-Gaza conflict. Using time-varying parameter–vector autoregressions and wavelet coherence, the analysis shows that green and blue clusters display higher resilience and lower spillovers under crisis conditions, suggesting their potential to act as safe havens. Meanwhile, the brown cluster faces heightened vulnerability to energy market shocks, and the orange cluster strengthens its ties with clean energy assets when driven by technological innovation. These findings highlight growing decoupling between clean energy and fossil fuels and the pivotal role of technology in accelerating that shift.

本研究探讨了2014年4月至2024年10月期间四个资产集群(棕色（化石燃料）、绿色（清洁能源）、蓝色（水相关）和橙色（技术）之间的动态互联性和波动性溢出效应，并纳入了重大地缘政治事件，如COVID-19、俄罗斯-乌克兰战争和以色列-加沙冲突。利用时变参数向量自回归和小波相干性分析表明，在危机条件下，绿色和蓝色集群表现出更高的弹性和更低的溢出效应，表明它们具有充当避风港的潜力。与此同时，棕色集群面临能源市场冲击的脆弱性增加，而橙色集群在技术创新的推动下加强了与清洁能源资产的联系。这些发现突显了清洁能源和化石燃料之间日益脱钩，以及技术在加速这种转变方面的关键作用。

引用次数: 0

From macro to micro: Enhancing real GDP predictions through business tendency and bank loans surveys 从宏观到微观：通过商业趋势和银行贷款调查提高实际GDP预测

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.03.010

Oguzhan Cepni , Furkan Emirmahmutoglu

This study examines how effectively common factors, extracted using both the partial least squares method and principal component analysis from the business tendency survey and the banking loan tendency survey, can predict Turkiye’s economic growth. The findings indicate that integrating this survey data with macroeconomic variables has the potential to improve the accuracy of Turkiye’s real GDP growth predictions. When examined at the sector level, models employing factors from the Durable Consumer Goods sector exhibited the strongest predictive capabilities. Regarding firm size, models based on factors from large companies yielded superior out-of-sample prediction performance. Moreover, refining the prediction models by strategically reducing the number of factors using variable selection algorithms and choosing the most significant ones further enhanced their forecast accuracy. In conclusion, this study offers invaluable insights for policymakers, investors, and households in Turkiye by introducing a new approach to improving the accuracy of economic growth forecasts.

本研究考察了利用偏最小二乘法和主成分分析从商业趋势调查和银行贷款趋势调查中提取的共同因素如何有效地预测土耳其的经济增长。研究结果表明，将调查数据与宏观经济变量相结合，有可能提高土耳其实际GDP增长预测的准确性。当在部门层面进行检查时，采用耐用消费品部门因素的模型显示出最强的预测能力。关于公司规模，基于大公司因素的模型产生了更好的样本外预测性能。此外，利用变量选择算法对预测模型进行细化，有策略地减少因素数量，选择最显著的因素，进一步提高了预测模型的预测精度。总之，本研究通过引入一种提高经济增长预测准确性的新方法，为土耳其的政策制定者、投资者和家庭提供了宝贵的见解。

引用次数: 0

Corporate sustainable development: ESG rating divergence and stock liquidity in China 企业可持续发展：ESG评级差异与中国股票流动性

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.04.002

Xinru Zhang, Xiaojie Sun, Yu Gao

In the process of allocating capital, investors are increasingly considering environmental, social, and governance (ESG) ratings and green development. To investigate the effect of differences in agencies’ ESG ratings on stock liquidity, we examine data from A-share firms listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges between 2015 and 2022. We find an association between ESG rating divergence and declines in stock liquidity; however, analyst and media attention mitigate this association. Our cross-sectional analysis reveals that stock liquidity at non-state-owned enterprises and less labor-intensive businesses is more likely to suffer the negative impact of ESG rating divergence. Our study adds to the literature on the relationship between differences in ESG ratings between ratings agencies and stock liquidity, offering valuable insights and suggestions for optimizing the ESG rating system and boosting stock market vitality.

在配置资本的过程中，投资者越来越多地考虑环境、社会和治理（ESG）评级和绿色发展。为了研究机构ESG评级差异对股票流动性的影响，我们研究了2015年至2022年在上海和深圳证券交易所上市的a股公司数据。我们发现ESG评级差异与股票流动性下降之间存在关联；然而，分析师和媒体的关注缓和了这种联系。我们的横断面分析显示，非国有企业和劳动密集型程度较低的企业的股票流动性更容易受到ESG评级差异的负面影响。本研究补充了有关评级机构间ESG评级差异与股票流动性关系的文献，为优化ESG评级体系、提升股票市场活力提供了有价值的见解和建议。

引用次数: 0

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