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Linear extrapolation and model-free option implied moments 线性外推法和无模型期权隐含矩
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2024.01.009
This study proposes an approach for assessing the effectiveness of linear extrapolation (LE) for the implied moment estimators even in cases in which the true values of implied moments are unknown. To this end, we develop truncation sensitivity functions for simulation and empirical analyses. LE proves effective for implied volatility, skewness, and kurtosis estimators. However, higher moment (i.e., implied skewness and kurtosis) estimators exhibit sensitivity to truncation, that is, the absence of option prices in the outermost region of the strike price domain, regardless of the use of LE to address truncation.
本研究提出了一种方法,即使在隐含矩真实值未知的情况下,也能评估线性外推法(LE)对隐含矩估计器的有效性。为此,我们开发了用于模拟和实证分析的截断敏感性函数。事实证明,LE 对隐含波动率、偏度和峰度估计器有效。然而,高阶矩(即隐含偏度和峰度)估计器对截断(即行权价域最外层区域没有期权价 格)表现出敏感性,无论是否使用 LE 来解决截断问题。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of non-deliverable forward programs of emerging-market central banks: A synthetic control approach 新兴市场中央银行非交割远期项目的影响:合成控制法
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2024.03.009
Since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, emerging market economies’ central banks have started to use foreign exchange derivative instruments frequently in exchange rate markets to provide a hedging instrument for currency risks and to support market liquidity. In this context, the central banks of three major emerging markets—the Central Bank of Brazil, Central Bank of Mexico, and Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye—have started to implement non-deliverable forward (NDF) auctions. In this study, the impact of the NDF programs on financial market indicators is examined using a synthetic control method, which controls for the endogeneity and causality problems commonly faced by studies on the effect of central bank exchange market interventions. The empirical findings indicate that the NDF programs of the Central Bank of Brazil and Central Bank of Mexico have a significant impact on the exchange rate level but limited impact on the volatility and no impact on risk reversals. Conversely, the NDF program of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye has a significant downward impact on the implied volatility and risk reversal but no significant impact on the level of the exchange rate. The difference in the effectiveness of similar practices of these three central banks is considered to be related mostly to the size of the programs.
自 2008 年全球金融危机以来,新兴市场经济体的中央银行开始在汇率市场上频繁使用外汇衍生工具,以提供货币风险对冲工具和支持市场流动性。在此背景下,三大新兴市场的中央银行--巴西中央银行、墨西哥中央银行和土耳其共和国中央银行--开始实施无本金交割远期外汇(NDF)拍卖。本研究采用合成控制法考察了 NDF 项目对金融市场指标的影响,该方法控制了有关中央银行汇率市场干预效果的研究通常面临的内生性和因果关系问题。实证研究结果表明,巴西中央银行和墨西哥中央银行的 NDF 计划对汇率水平有显著影响,但对波动性影响有限,对风险逆转没有影响。相反,土耳其共和国中央银行的 NDF 计划对隐含波动率和风险逆转有显著的向下影响,但对汇率水平没有显著影响。这三家中央银行类似做法的有效性差异被认为主要与计划的规模有关。
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引用次数: 0
Economic policy uncertainty and options market participation: Hedge or speculation? 经济政策不确定性与期权市场参与:对冲还是投机?
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2024.04.006
Using data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 exchange-traded fund (SSE 50 ETF) options, we examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on options market participation. We find that increased EPU significantly induces investor participation in the options market, and this positive effect remains significant over the following three months. Further investigation shows that EPU significantly increases the ratio of trading volume to open interest in SSE 50 ETF options but has no significant impact on the demand for bearish hedging. Moreover, EPU's stimulatory effect on investor participation is stronger during periods of higher investor sentiment. These findings suggest that increased investor participation in the options market during periods of high economic uncertainty is due to speculative trading rather than hedging.
利用上海证券交易所 50 交易所交易基金(上证 50 ETF)期权的数据,我们研究了经济政策不确定性(EPU)对期权市场参与的影响。我们发现,经济政策不确定性的增加会明显诱导投资者参与期权市场,并且这种积极影响在随后的三个月内仍然显著。进一步的研究表明,EPU 大幅提高了上证 50 ETF 期权的交易量与未平仓合约的比率,但对看跌套期保值的需求并无明显影响。此外,EPU 对投资者参与的刺激作用在投资者情绪高涨时更为明显。这些研究结果表明,在经济不确定性较高的时期,投资者参与期权市场的增加是由于投机交易而非套期保值。
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引用次数: 0
Evolving roles of energy futures markets: A survey 能源期货市场不断演变的角色:调查
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2024.05.004
Energy markets are important in global trade and economic stability, and energy futures play a critical role in energy market dynamics. This study reviews: i) the important role energy futures market prices play as reliable forecasts of future spot prices for energy commodities; ii) the connectedness of energy futures and spot markets; iii) how energy futures markets facilitate managing exposure to energy price risk; iv) the systemic influence of energy futures prices and volatility on other markets and how this influence frequently surges during crises. Our survey provides economic insights for energy market participants and policymakers.
能源市场对全球贸易和经济稳定非常重要,而能源期货在能源市场动态中发挥着关键作用。本研究回顾了:i) 能源期货市场价格作为未来能源商品现货价格的可靠预测所发挥的重要作用;ii) 能源期货和现货市场的关联性;iii) 能源期货市场如何促进能源价格风险的管理;iv) 能源期货价格和波动对其他市场的系统性影响,以及这种影响如何在危机期间经常激增。我们的调查为能源市场参与者和政策制定者提供了经济学见解。
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引用次数: 0
Financial derivative instruments and their applications in Islamic banking and finance: Fundamentals, structures and pricing mechanisms 金融衍生工具及其在伊斯兰银行业和金融业中的应用:基本原理、结构和定价机制
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2024.02.013
There is ongoing debate regarding the permissibility of financial derivatives in Islamic banking and finance. While traditional derivative products are rejected by most Islamic schools of thought as permissible tools for risk management, there have been developments in Shariah-compliant structured products to address this need. Therefore, the objectives of the study are twofold: i) to examine the permissibility and acceptability of financial derivatives within Islamic economics and finance, and ii) to investigate their structures and pricing models. This study finds that these instruments can be utilised for risk management purposes while adhering to the principles of wealth protection in Islam. It is also crucial to prohibit elements such as speculation, gambling, and gharar while using financial derivatives in Islamic banking and Finance. As a contribution to the study, this research aims to incorporate traditional option pricing models into Shariah-compliant derivatives, which has been a topic that has been scarcely explored in previous studies.
关于伊斯兰银行业和金融业是否允许使用金融衍生产品的争论一直存在。虽然大多数伊斯兰学派都反对将传统衍生产品作为允许的风险管理工具,但为满足这一需求,在符合规定的结构性产品方面有所发展。因此,本研究有两个目标:i) 审查伊斯兰经济学和金融学中金融衍生产品的允许性和可接受性;ii) 调查其结构和定价模型。本研究发现,这些工具可用于风险管理目的,同时遵守伊斯兰教的财富保护原则。在伊斯兰银行业和金融业使用金融衍生工具时,禁止投机、赌博等因素也至关重要。作为对本研究的贡献,本研究旨在将传统的期权定价模型纳入符合伊斯兰教义的衍生品中,而这一主题在以往的研究中鲜有涉及。
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引用次数: 0
Testing asset pricing models with individual stocks: An instrumental variables approach 用个股检验资产定价模型:工具变量法
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2024.05.005

This study empirically tests time-varying asset pricing models in an emerging market with individual stocks. We employ a recently proposed instrumental variables (IV) technique that uses individual stocks as test assets while consistently estimating ex-post risk premiums. This method differs from constructing test portfolios, a common practice employed to mitigate errors-in-variables bias, and, instead, uses factor sensitivity estimates from alternating even and odd months as IVs. Applying this approach, we observe statistically insignificant factor risk premiums under various multifactor models in asset pricing tests at Borsa Istanbul, after accounting for asset characteristics. Our method facilitates the inclusion of essential risk or return-related characteristics of individual stocks in tests, raising insights usually obscured by conventional test portfolios. The results contribute to empirical asset pricing by highlighting the failure of classical models to explain risk premiums at Borsa Istanbul, a significant emerging stock market, when tested with individual stocks using an IV approach.

本研究利用个股对新兴市场的时变资产定价模型进行了实证检验。我们采用了最近提出的工具变量(IV)技术,将个股作为测试资产,同时持续估计事后风险溢价。这种方法不同于构建测试投资组合--这是一种用于减轻变量误差偏差的常见做法,而是使用偶数月和奇数月交替的因子敏感性估计值作为 IV。应用这种方法,我们在伊斯坦布尔证券交易所的资产定价测试中观察到,在各种多因子模型下,在考虑资产特征后,因子风险溢价在统计上并不显著。我们的方法有助于在测试中纳入个股的基本风险或收益相关特征,从而提高了通常被传统测试组合所掩盖的洞察力。这些结果突出表明,当使用 IV 方法对个股进行测试时,经典模型无法解释伊斯坦布尔证券交易所(一个重要的新兴股票市场)的风险溢价,从而为实证资产定价做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Tackling financialization amidst rising labor cost in China 在中国劳动力成本上升的背景下应对金融化问题
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2024.05.010
Zhuo-Ya Du , Qian Wang

Suppressing corporate financialization exacerbated by rising labor costs is an important micro-level issue for revitalizing the manufacturing industry. This research investigates the interaction mechanism among labor costs and financialization, using panel data of Chinese listed companies from 2007 to 2022 in the context of the disappearance of the demographic dividend. The results of the moderated mediation model show that rising labor costs worsen financialization by reducing corporate profitability and increase financialization through negative earnings manipulation, whereas digitization suppresses both the direct and indirect effect of labor costs. Therefore, measures should be taken to enhance the profitability and accounting transparency of companies undergoing the process of accelerating digitization.

抑制因劳动力成本上升而加剧的企业金融化是振兴制造业的一个重要微观问题。本研究在人口红利消失的背景下,利用 2007 年至 2022 年中国上市公司的面板数据,研究了劳动力成本与金融化之间的互动机制。调节中介模型的结果表明,劳动力成本上升会通过降低企业盈利能力来恶化金融化,并通过负收益操纵来增加金融化,而数字化则会抑制劳动力成本的直接和间接影响。因此,在加速数字化的过程中,应采取措施提高企业的盈利能力和会计透明度。
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引用次数: 0
A Pandemic's grip: Volatility spillovers in Asia-Pacific equity markets during the onset of Covid-19 大流行病的影响:Covid-19 爆发期间亚太股票市场的波动溢出效应
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2024.05.001

The emergence of Covid-19 in late 2019 rapidly shattered the Asia-Pacific region (APR), a bastion of economic dynamism, and it became the epicenter of the global health crisis. This unprecedented pandemic not only triggered a public health catastrophe but also unleashed a financial storm, exposing vulnerability within the region's interconnected economies. This study identifies the factors driving volatility spillovers within Asian-Pacific financial markets during the initial wave of the Covid-19 pandemic (January 2020–February 2021). We analyze the interplay of pandemic transmission dynamics, government interventions, central bank policies, and socioeconomic variables. Our findings reveal a robust and persistent association between the rising number of Covid-19 cases per million and volatility spillovers. We introduce three novel determinants—the number of intensive care unit beds, population density, and the proportion of the elderly population—which significantly impact volatility transmission in response to new cases. Stringent government measures, such as travel bans and lockdowns, mitigate volatility spillovers. Conversely, central bank policies increase volatility spillovers. These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of financial market dynamics in the context of global health emergencies. This knowledge equips policy makers in the APR with valuable tools for navigating future crises.

2019 年末,Covid-19 的出现迅速打破了亚太地区这个经济活力的堡垒,使其成为全球健康危机的中心。这场史无前例的大流行病不仅引发了一场公共卫生灾难,还引发了一场金融风暴,暴露了该地区相互关联的经济体内部的脆弱性。本研究确定了在 Covid-19 大流行的第一波(2020 年 1 月至 2021 年 2 月)期间亚太地区金融市场波动溢出效应的驱动因素。我们分析了大流行病传播动态、政府干预、中央银行政策和社会经济变量之间的相互作用。我们的研究结果表明,每百万人中 Covid-19 病例数的上升与波动溢出效应之间存在稳健而持久的联系。我们引入了三个新的决定因素--重症监护病房床位数、人口密度和老年人口比例--这三个因素对新病例的波动传播有显著影响。政府的严厉措施,如旅行禁令和封锁,会减轻波动的溢出效应。相反,中央银行的政策则会增加波动的溢出效应。这些见解有助于加深对全球卫生紧急情况下金融市场动态的理解。这些知识为亚太地区的政策制定者提供了驾驭未来危机的宝贵工具。
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引用次数: 0
Asset allocation models for big tech stocks: The importance of lower partial moments and short length windows 大型科技股的资产配置模型:下局部矩和短窗口的重要性
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2024.05.006

The group of companies formed by Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet have become a successful investment alternative in the U.S. stock market. In this context, the aim of this research is to provide investment strategies based on these companies to the challenge of how individual investors should allocate their funds in a portfolio and outperform benchmarks such as the SPY ETF or a naïve portfolio. To this end, we developed a total of 20 asset allocation models and constructed portfolios with different rebalancing periods between April 2014 and June 2022. Our overall results reveal that a combination of a short window length for estimating the parameters of the asset allocation models and a procedure that takes downside risk into account, more precisely the Lower Partial Moment approach, significantly outperforms the alternative of investing in the SPY ETF and also the naïve portfolio.

由 Meta、苹果(Apple)、微软(Microsoft)、亚马逊(Amazon)和 Alphabet 组成的公司集团已成为美国股市中成功的投资选择。在此背景下,本研究旨在提供基于这些公司的投资策略,以应对个人投资者应如何在投资组合中分配资金并超越 SPY ETF 或天真投资组合等基准的挑战。为此,我们共开发了 20 个资产配置模型,并构建了 2014 年 4 月至 2022 年 6 月期间不同再平衡期的投资组合。我们的总体结果表明,采用短窗口期估算资产配置模型的参数,并将下行风险考虑在内,更准确地说,采用下偏矩量法,其结果明显优于投资于 SPY ETF 和天真投资组合。
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引用次数: 0
Is democracy costly? The effect of political turmoil on Kuwait’s stock market 民主代价高昂吗?政治动荡对科威特股市的影响
IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2024.05.009

This study is the first to analyze the impact of domestic political unrest on Kuwait’s stock market. Our data indicates a daily market decline of 0.16 percent during periods when the parliament is suspended. This translates to a 7.1 percent loss in the value of the Kuwait Stock Exchange for each period of suspension. Our findings suggest that Kuwait, despite having a more democratic political system, experiences greater economic instability than Saudi Arabia. This research highlights the nuanced relationship between the political structure and economic performance, particularly in emerging markets, challenging the notion that more democracy invariably leads to better economic outcomes.

本研究首次分析了国内政治动荡对科威特股市的影响。我们的数据显示,在议会停摆期间,市场日跌幅为 0.16%。这意味着科威特证券交易所的价值在每次停市期间损失 7.1%。我们的研究结果表明,尽管科威特拥有更加民主的政治制度,但其经济不稳定性却高于沙特阿拉伯。这项研究凸显了政治结构与经济表现之间的微妙关系,尤其是在新兴市场,从而对 "更多民主必然带来更好的经济结果 "这一观点提出了质疑。
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引用次数: 0
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Borsa Istanbul Review
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