Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-10-29DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.024
Guillermo Peña
A new measure denominated ‘Financial Anomaly Index’ (FAI) is proposed, showing the anomalies of recent past years in the financial sector mainly due to unconventional monetary policies. The present paper provides evidence that, when applying the proposed index, there is a negative association between FAI and inflation in the short run. The null hypothesis that no variable Granger-causes the other is rejected. Different techniques are used, including a recent panel data test. A robustness check using a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is provided with a sample of 216 countries for 1960–2021.
{"title":"A financial anomaly","authors":"Guillermo Peña","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A new measure denominated ‘Financial Anomaly Index’ (FAI) is proposed, showing the anomalies of recent past years in the financial sector mainly due to unconventional monetary policies. The present paper provides evidence that, when applying the proposed index, there is a negative association between FAI and inflation in the short run. The null hypothesis that no variable <em>Granger-causes</em> the other is rejected. Different techniques are used, including a recent panel data test. A robustness check using a <em>System Generalized Method of Moments</em> (GMM) is provided with a sample of 216 countries for 1960–2021.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"Article 100751"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146015723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-06DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100766
Selahattin Çağatay Öztürk , Güven Sayilgan
This study explores the effect of information associated with valuation reports before initial public offerings (IPOs) on post-IPO share price performance. Our results provide valuable insights for Türkiye as well as other emerging markets around the world. In addition, the comprehensive data and broad scope of information obtained from the pre-IPO valuation reports amplify the significance of our findings. We conduct a content analysis on 113 valuation reports, developing indexes for each report. Using regression analysis, we examine the impact of these indexes on post-IPO share price performance. Our results reveal the presence of abnormal returns in IPOs, which is consistent the findings in prior literature. Equally important, providing extensive information in valuation reports tends to reduce abnormal returns, whereas increasing the information associated with financials and valuation positively influences these returns. One significant finding is that analyst reputation substantially affects post-IPO share price performance.
{"title":"The role of valuation report contents in shaping Post-IPO share price performance","authors":"Selahattin Çağatay Öztürk , Güven Sayilgan","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100766","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100766","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the effect of information associated with valuation reports before initial public offerings (IPOs) on post-IPO share price performance. Our results provide valuable insights for Türkiye as well as other emerging markets around the world. In addition, the comprehensive data and broad scope of information obtained from the pre-IPO valuation reports amplify the significance of our findings. We conduct a content analysis on 113 valuation reports, developing indexes for each report. Using regression analysis, we examine the impact of these indexes on post-IPO share price performance. Our results reveal the presence of abnormal returns in IPOs, which is consistent the findings in prior literature. Equally important, providing extensive information in valuation reports tends to reduce abnormal returns, whereas increasing the information associated with financials and valuation positively influences these returns. One significant finding is that analyst reputation substantially affects post-IPO share price performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"Article 100766"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146015764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.020
Ramazan Yildirim , Alam Asadov , Chaker Aloui , Sami Mejri
This study investigates how global risk factors shape the dynamic connectedness between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies. Using daily data from November 2017 to October 2024, we construct equally and value-weighted clean-dirty correlation indexes and examine their relationship with four key stressors: economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), financial market volatility (VIX), and environmental risk, proxied by the Air Quality Index (AQI). Employing a three-method framework, Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-Dynamic Conditional Correlation (MGARCH-DCC) for time-varying correlations, Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) for directional connectedness, and quantile-on-quantile regression for tail dependence, we reveal that correlations between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies are generally positive but have sharp fluctuations during systemic crises. VIX and GPR emerge as the dominant shock transmitters, whereas EPU plays a limited role, and AQI has asymmetric effects. These findings show that comovement between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies is regime dependent and highly sensitive to external shocks.
{"title":"Global risk factors and the time-varying connectedness between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies","authors":"Ramazan Yildirim , Alam Asadov , Chaker Aloui , Sami Mejri","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.020","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.020","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how global risk factors shape the dynamic connectedness between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies. Using daily data from November 2017 to October 2024, we construct equally and value-weighted clean-dirty correlation indexes and examine their relationship with four key stressors: economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), financial market volatility (VIX), and environmental risk, proxied by the Air Quality Index (AQI). Employing a three-method framework, Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-Dynamic Conditional Correlation (MGARCH-DCC) for time-varying correlations, Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) for directional connectedness, and quantile-on-quantile regression for tail dependence, we reveal that correlations between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies are generally positive but have sharp fluctuations during systemic crises. VIX and GPR emerge as the dominant shock transmitters, whereas EPU plays a limited role, and AQI has asymmetric effects. These findings show that comovement between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies is regime dependent and highly sensitive to external shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"Article 100747"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146015771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-06DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100767
Hyoung-Goo Kang , Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin , Koeung Park , Doojin Ryu
This study examines Korea's jeonse (key money or lump-sum deposit) system using the framework of sukuk (Islamic financial certificates), highlighting their shared characteristics as asset-backed financial instruments. Despite having origins in different cultural and legal contexts, both systems have fundamental similarities in their approach to property rights, the structure of ownership, and risk distribution. By examining how jeonse can be interpreted and adapted as a sharia-compliant financial instrument, we contribute to the literature on cross-cultural financial innovation. Our analyses provide insights into alternative housing finance models that combine conventional and Islamic financial principles, fostering opportunities for global financial collaboration.
{"title":"Jeonse-as-a-sukuk: Why is Korea a hidden champion of Islamic finance?","authors":"Hyoung-Goo Kang , Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin , Koeung Park , Doojin Ryu","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100767","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100767","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines Korea's <em>jeonse</em> (key money or lump-sum deposit) system using the framework of sukuk (Islamic financial certificates), highlighting their shared characteristics as asset-backed financial instruments. Despite having origins in different cultural and legal contexts, both systems have fundamental similarities in their approach to property rights, the structure of ownership, and risk distribution. By examining how <em>jeonse</em> can be interpreted and adapted as a sharia-compliant financial instrument, we contribute to the literature on cross-cultural financial innovation. Our analyses provide insights into alternative housing finance models that combine conventional and Islamic financial principles, fostering opportunities for global financial collaboration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"Article 100767"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146015766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-10-25DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.029
Pınar Sezer, Dilek Başar, Selcen Öztürk
This study examines the relation between financial inclusion (FI) and individual debt in low- and lower-middle-income countries, focusing on whether increased access to financial services promotes borrowing. Although FI is often advocated for enhancing economic opportunities, its implications for debt accumulation remain underexplored, particularly in developing economies. Using categorical and binary indicators of FI, the analysis reveals a nonlinear relation between FI and individual debt, highlighting a threshold beyond which increased access correlates with higher borrowing. The empirical analysis is based on probit regression, complemented by a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-logit model to ensure robustness. The LASSO-logit approach confirms the primary findings and improves model parsimony by selecting the most relevant predictors of borrowing. Results emphasize the dual-edged nature of FI and the need for a nuanced, context-specific policy design to prevent over-indebtedness in financially underserved populations.
{"title":"Financial inclusion and household debt: Evidence from low-income and lower-middle-income countries","authors":"Pınar Sezer, Dilek Başar, Selcen Öztürk","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the relation between financial inclusion (FI) and individual debt in low- and lower-middle-income countries, focusing on whether increased access to financial services promotes borrowing. Although FI is often advocated for enhancing economic opportunities, its implications for debt accumulation remain underexplored, particularly in developing economies. Using categorical and binary indicators of FI, the analysis reveals a nonlinear relation between FI and individual debt, highlighting a threshold beyond which increased access correlates with higher borrowing. The empirical analysis is based on probit regression, complemented by a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-logit model to ensure robustness. The LASSO-logit approach confirms the primary findings and improves model parsimony by selecting the most relevant predictors of borrowing. Results emphasize the dual-edged nature of FI and the need for a nuanced, context-specific policy design to prevent over-indebtedness in financially underserved populations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"Article 100756"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146015773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-03DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.031
Temesgen Woldamanuel Wajebo, Alemayehu Geda
This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on private sector credit supply in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Employing a two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator on an unbalanced panel spanning 2003–2021, the analysis addresses endogeneity concerns and dynamic panel biases. The results reveal that exchange rate volatility significantly and negatively affects domestic credit to the private sector. This finding underscores the destabilizing role of exchange rate volatility, as heightened volatility amplifies uncertainty and risk, prompting financial institutions to adopt more conservative lending strategies. In conclusion, expanding private sector credit supply in the context of high exchange rate volatility necessitates a combination of sound macroeconomic management, targeted structural reforms, and institutional strengthening to foster a resilient financial system.
{"title":"Impact of exchange volatility on private- sector credit access in sub-Saharan African","authors":"Temesgen Woldamanuel Wajebo, Alemayehu Geda","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on private sector credit supply in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Employing a two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator on an unbalanced panel spanning 2003–2021, the analysis addresses endogeneity concerns and dynamic panel biases. The results reveal that exchange rate volatility significantly and negatively affects domestic credit to the private sector. This finding underscores the destabilizing role of exchange rate volatility, as heightened volatility amplifies uncertainty and risk, prompting financial institutions to adopt more conservative lending strategies. In conclusion, expanding private sector credit supply in the context of high exchange rate volatility necessitates a combination of sound macroeconomic management, targeted structural reforms, and institutional strengthening to foster a resilient financial system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"Article 100758"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146015724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-16DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100779
S. Burcu Avci
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Why companies go public and private: The case of Türkiye” [Borsa Istanbul Review 25 (2025) 1208–1220 / 6]","authors":"S. Burcu Avci","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100779","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100779","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"Article 100779"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146015768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-10-27DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.027
Atta ul Mustafa , Ahmet Faruk Aysan , Nasim Shah Shirazi
This paper investigates how structured persuasive strategies, grounded in Cialdini's principles of influence, are embedded in the narrative disclosures of banks and influence financial outcomes. Using a novel persuasion index derived from supervised natural language processing (NLP) analysis of 544 annual reports from publicly listed firms in the Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA) region (2016–2023), we measure rhetorical intensity across five persuasion dimensions: reciprocity, consistency, authority, social proof, and liking. Using system generalized method of moments (GMM) to address endogeneity concerns, we find that higher persuasive framing significantly improves the return on assets, return on equity, and solvency (Z-score). Our sub-index analysis reveals that reciprocity and social proof cues enhance financial performance, whereas excessive authority claims negatively impact profitability. These findings have important implications for policy makers, suggesting that disclosure standards should account for the behavioral effects of narrative construction.
{"title":"Words that yield: The invisible hand of financial storytelling","authors":"Atta ul Mustafa , Ahmet Faruk Aysan , Nasim Shah Shirazi","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how structured persuasive strategies, grounded in Cialdini's principles of influence, are embedded in the narrative disclosures of banks and influence financial outcomes. Using a novel persuasion index derived from supervised natural language processing (NLP) analysis of 544 annual reports from publicly listed firms in the Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA) region (2016–2023), we measure rhetorical intensity across five persuasion dimensions: reciprocity, consistency, authority, social proof, and liking. Using system generalized method of moments (GMM) to address endogeneity concerns, we find that higher persuasive framing significantly improves the return on assets, return on equity, and solvency (Z-score). Our sub-index analysis reveals that reciprocity and social proof cues enhance financial performance, whereas excessive authority claims negatively impact profitability. These findings have important implications for policy makers, suggesting that disclosure standards should account for the behavioral effects of narrative construction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"Article 100754"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146015776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-07DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100772
Ilker Yilmaz
This study investigates the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices on working capital management (WCM) with a global sample of nonfinancial firms from 2004 to 2023. We hypothesize that ESG performance has a positive impact on WCM. Using a sample of 8350 firms in 73 countries, we perform panel data regressions and employ the generalized method of moments (GMM) as robustness check and to address endogeneity issues. Our results reveal that ESG performance, proxied by the combined ESG score, has a significantly negative impact on the cash conversion cycle (CCC). The majority of other ESG scores demonstrate a similar pattern, although some results are insignificant. The study contributes to the empirical literature on the impact of ESG performance by including multiple ESG dimensions and a large global sample. The findings have practical implications for managers and policy makers.
{"title":"Unraveling the influence of ESG performance on working capital management: An empirical analysis of a global panel dataset","authors":"Ilker Yilmaz","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100772","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100772","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices on working capital management (WCM) with a global sample of nonfinancial firms from 2004 to 2023. We hypothesize that ESG performance has a positive impact on WCM. Using a sample of 8350 firms in 73 countries, we perform panel data regressions and employ the generalized method of moments (GMM) as robustness check and to address endogeneity issues. Our results reveal that ESG performance, proxied by the combined ESG score, has a significantly negative impact on the cash conversion cycle (CCC). The majority of other ESG scores demonstrate a similar pattern, although some results are insignificant. The study contributes to the empirical literature on the impact of ESG performance by including multiple ESG dimensions and a large global sample. The findings have practical implications for managers and policy makers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"Article 100772"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146015767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-06DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100765
Ali Yavuz Polat , Erhan Mugaloglu , Khaled Elmawazini
We investigate the dynamic interplay between climate policy uncertainty (CPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), oil prices, and stock market performance within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, considering the dependence of the region's economies on oil. CPU is used to capture a nuanced understanding of how global environmental policy uncertainties shape financial market dynamics. Employing a Smooth Transition Vector Error Correction Model, we analyze both long-term co-integration and short-term fluctuations. The results reveal that oil and capital market shocks have a similar, initially positive impact on the Dow Jones MENA index (DJMENA), while the responses to CPU and GPR differ over time. Geopolitical shocks initially boost the DJMENA index owing to supply disruptions, but eventually exert a negative impact as alternative energy investments may increase in the long run. However, the DJMENA index responds positively to increasing uncertainty in the CPU. In the short run, oil and capital market shocks account for up to 98 % of the variation in the DJMENA index, whereas the CPU and GPR play a larger role in the long run. The historical decomposition highlights how the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict further intensified market volatility. Although the GPR exerts a more pronounced immediate effect, CPU's impact intensifies over time, highlighting the necessity for MENA markets to account for climate uncertainty in their financial strategies. These findings underscore the importance of adapting to shifting global pressures to maintain resilient performance in oil-dependent economies.
{"title":"Risk or resilience? Assessing the impact of climate policy uncertainty on MENA stock markets: A ST-VECM analysis","authors":"Ali Yavuz Polat , Erhan Mugaloglu , Khaled Elmawazini","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100765","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bir.2025.100765","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the dynamic interplay between climate policy uncertainty (CPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), oil prices, and stock market performance within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, considering the dependence of the region's economies on oil. CPU is used to capture a nuanced understanding of how global environmental policy uncertainties shape financial market dynamics. Employing a Smooth Transition Vector Error Correction Model, we analyze both long-term co-integration and short-term fluctuations. The results reveal that oil and capital market shocks have a similar, initially positive impact on the Dow Jones MENA index (DJMENA), while the responses to CPU and GPR differ over time. Geopolitical shocks initially boost the DJMENA index owing to supply disruptions, but eventually exert a negative impact as alternative energy investments may increase in the long run. However, the DJMENA index responds positively to increasing uncertainty in the CPU. In the short run, oil and capital market shocks account for up to 98 % of the variation in the DJMENA index, whereas the CPU and GPR play a larger role in the long run. The historical decomposition highlights how the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict further intensified market volatility. Although the GPR exerts a more pronounced immediate effect, CPU's impact intensifies over time, highlighting the necessity for MENA markets to account for climate uncertainty in their financial strategies. These findings underscore the importance of adapting to shifting global pressures to maintain resilient performance in oil-dependent economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"Article 100765"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146015725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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