Borsa Istanbul Review最新文献

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Biodiversity risk and corporate real earnings management: Empirical evidence from China 生物多样性风险与企业真实盈余管理：来自中国的经验证据

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100778

Yongjian Lin, Rongcan Zheng

Amid the intensifying global ecological crisis, biodiversity risk has emerged as an important factor affecting corporate sustainable development. Using Chinese A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2023, this study aimed to examine the impact and mechanism of biodiversity risk on corporate real earnings management. Findings demonstrate that biodiversity risk exacerbates corporate real earnings management, whereas management's high ownership stake mitigates this effect. Mechanism analysis reveals that capital allocation efficiency and operational risk are the key channels through which biodiversity risk affects real earnings management. Heterogeneity tests show that biodiversity risk significantly affects real earnings management in firms with high media attention, weak corporate governance, and intense market competition. This study expands the literature on the economic consequences of biodiversity risk and the factors influencing real earnings management, emphasizing the significance of biodiversity risk, promoting ecological-financial synergistic governance, and realizing win-win economic and environmental benefits.

在全球生态危机日益加剧的背景下，生物多样性风险已成为影响企业可持续发展的重要因素。本研究以2009 - 2023年中国a股上市公司为研究对象，探讨生物多样性风险对企业真实盈余管理的影响及其机制。研究结果表明，生物多样性风险加剧了企业的实际盈余管理，而管理层的高股权则缓解了这一影响。机制分析表明，资本配置效率和操作风险是生物多样性风险影响实际盈余管理的关键渠道。异质性检验表明，在媒体关注度高、公司治理弱、市场竞争激烈的企业中，生物多样性风险显著影响真实盈余管理。本研究拓展了生物多样性风险的经济后果和实际盈余管理影响因素的文献，强调生物多样性风险的重要性，促进生态金融协同治理，实现经济效益和环境效益的双赢。

引用次数: 0

Vulnerability of eco-friendly assets to return shocks from climate change and carbon credit indices 生态友好型资产应对气候变化和碳信用指数冲击的脆弱性

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100770

Remzi Gök , Elie Bouri , Hail Park

Proposing a quantile-on-quantile extended joint connectedness (QQ-EJC) framework that combines the quantile-on-quantile connectivity (QQC) and extended-joint connectedness (EJC) models, we examine the vulnerability of eco-friendly assets to return shocks in climate change and carbon credit indices across various quantiles and evaluate the multivariate portfolio implications. The results show the following: Compared to the carbon credit index, the climate change index is more strongly interconnected with eco-friendly assets, particularly clean energy and renewable technology stocks. Connectedness is the strongest under extreme negative shocks. Carbon and climate change indices are dominant transmitters of extreme shocks to eco-friendly assets. The pandemic affected the evolution of total and net quantile connectivity measures, with carbon/climate indices recoupling with eco-friendly assets over time. Portfolio weights and hedging effectiveness under a minimum connectedness approach suggest that carbon credits and clean energy are the most effective assets, unlike green bonds that offer no added-value to a portfolio.

我们提出了一个分位数上扩展联合连通性（QQC）和分位数上扩展联合连通性（EJC）模型相结合的分位数上扩展联合连通性（QQ-EJC）框架，研究了生态资产在不同分位数上对气候变化和碳信用指数的回报冲击的脆弱性，并评估了多变量投资组合的影响。结果表明：与碳信用指数相比，气候变化指数与生态友好型资产，特别是清洁能源和可再生科技股的关联性更强。在极端负面冲击下，连通性是最强的。碳和气候变化指数是生态友好型资产遭受极端冲击的主要信号。疫情影响了总分位数和净分位数连通性措施的演变，随着时间的推移，碳/气候指数与生态友好型资产重新挂钩。最小连通性方法下的投资组合权重和对冲有效性表明，碳信用额度和清洁能源是最有效的资产，而不像绿色债券那样为投资组合提供附加值。

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引用次数: 0

Talk or action? Unveiling the nature and depth of climate disclosures in Islamic banks using machine learning 空谈还是行动？利用机器学习揭示伊斯兰银行气候信息披露的性质和深度

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100789

Muhammad Bilal Zafar

Climate risk has become a board-level and supervisory priority, yet little is known about how Islamic banks—subject to both conventional regulation and Shariah principles—communicate their climate commitments. Drawing on 838 annual reports from 103 Islamic banks across 25 jurisdictions during 2015–2024, this study develops a four-step natural-language–processing pipeline that combines rule-based precision with context-aware machine learning. Findings reveal that climate language appears in 84 % of bank-year observations but remains governance-heavy and metric-light, strategy narratives account for 64 % of TCFD-aligned sentences, whereas metrics & targets comprise only 11 %. Mentions of ESG governance and climate stress-testing surged six-fold after 2020, reflecting alignment with NGFS supervisory guidance and intensified regulatory uptake in Southeast Asia and the Gulf. Nonetheless, renewable-finance and net-zero narratives remain peripheral (<3 %). These results highlight a disclosure regime characterized by rapid narrative diffusion yet limited quantitative substance, challenging assumptions about Islamic finance's presumed ethical advantage and informing regulators seeking more decision-useful climate reporting.

气候风险已成为董事会和监管部门的优先事项，然而，受传统监管和伊斯兰教法原则约束的伊斯兰银行如何传达其气候承诺却鲜为人知。根据2015-2024年期间来自25个司法管辖区103家伊斯兰银行的838份年度报告，本研究开发了一种四步自然语言处理流程，将基于规则的精度与上下文感知机器学习相结合。研究结果显示，气候语言出现在84%的世行年度观察报告中，但仍然是重治理、轻指标的语言，战略叙述占tcfd相关句子的64%，而指标目标仅占11%。2020年后，ESG治理和气候压力测试的提及量激增了6倍，反映出与NGFS监管指导的一致性，以及东南亚和海湾地区加强了监管。尽管如此，可再生金融和净零的叙述仍然是次要的（3%）。这些结果突显了一种信息披露制度，其特点是叙事传播迅速，但数量实质有限，挑战了有关伊斯兰金融假定的道德优势的假设，并为监管机构寻求更多决策有用的气候报告提供了信息。

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引用次数: 0

Detecting and explaining bubbles in Islamic stock markets: A dual approach with LPPLS and machine learning 检测和解释伊斯兰股票市场的泡沫：用lppl和机器学习的双重方法

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100790

Merve Mert Saritas , Onder Ozgur , Veli Yilanci

This study investigates the presence and predictability of price bubbles in Islamic stock markets, challenging the proposition that their Sharia-compliant principles provide inherent resilience against such phenomena. Employing a dual methodology, we first apply the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model to detect crash periods in the daily Dow Jones Islamic Market indices for Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States from 1996 to 2025. Subsequently, we utilize an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to identify the key macro-financial drivers of these identified bubble episodes. The results from the LPPLS analysis confirm that these indices exhibit significant bubble dynamics. The XGBoost model incorporated imbalance-aware learners and further reveals that the probability of a bubble is systematically linked to a combination of market-based and macroeconomic variables, with the stock price index, intraday volatility, long-term interest rates, and exchange rates emerging as the most significant predictors, albeit with country-specific variations.

本研究调查了伊斯兰股票市场中价格泡沫的存在和可预测性，挑战了伊斯兰教遵循的原则提供了对这种现象的内在弹性的主张。采用双重方法，我们首先应用对数周期幂律奇点（LPPLS）模型来检测1996年至2025年加拿大、日本、英国和美国每日道琼斯伊斯兰市场指数的崩溃期。随后，我们利用极端梯度增强（XGBoost）算法来识别这些已识别泡沫事件的关键宏观金融驱动因素。lpps分析结果证实，这些指标表现出显著的气泡动力学。XGBoost模型结合了不平衡感知学习者，并进一步揭示了泡沫的可能性与市场和宏观经济变量的组合系统地联系在一起，股票价格指数、日内波动率、长期利率和汇率成为最重要的预测因素，尽管存在国别差异。

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引用次数: 0

Systemic risk in European banks: Analysis of the 2008–2023 period amid financial and non-financial shocks 欧洲银行的系统性风险：2008-2023年金融和非金融冲击时期的分析

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100782

Florin Aliu , Ujkan Q. Bajra , Edmond Hajrizi

The study examines the impact of significant financial and non-financial shocks on the extent to which returns and s-GARCH volatility are connected among the 13 biggest European banks. Financial shocks considered include the 2008/2009 financial crisis and European sovereign debt crisis in 2010/2011, while non-financial shocks encompass the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine war. Findings show that short-term connectedness consistently exhibits the strongest directional spillover effects. Concepts such as too big to fail and too interconnected to fail emerge as key factors that could shape future crises. During the 2008/2009 financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis, Deutsche Bank acted as a primary source of contagion within the European banking system. Conversely, at the time of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict, risk spillovers were chiefly transmitted by Internationale Nederlanden Groep and BNP Paribas. From a policy perspective, short-term spillovers provide early warning signals for regulators, pointing to potential liquidity shortages and funding challenges. In contrast, long-term spillovers expose deeper structural vulnerabilities, primarily stemming from banks' sovereign debt exposure and the cross-border flight of capital.

该研究考察了重大金融和非金融冲击对欧洲13家最大银行的回报率和s-GARCH波动率之间的关联程度的影响。考虑的金融冲击包括2008/2009年金融危机和2010/2011年欧洲主权债务危机，而非金融冲击包括COVID-19大流行和俄罗斯-乌克兰战争。研究结果表明，短期连通性始终表现出最强的定向溢出效应。“太大而不能倒”和“相互关联而不能倒”等概念成为可能影响未来危机的关键因素。在2008/2009年金融危机和主权债务危机期间，德意志银行在欧洲银行体系内扮演了主要传染源的角色。相反，在2019冠状病毒病大流行和俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突期间，风险溢出主要由荷兰国际集团和法国巴黎银行传播。从政策角度来看，短期溢出效应为监管机构提供了早期预警信号，指出了潜在的流动性短缺和融资挑战。相比之下，长期溢出效应暴露出更深层次的结构性脆弱性，主要源于银行的主权债务敞口和跨境资本外逃。

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引用次数: 0

Sentiment matters: Financial impact of tonal characteristics of FOMC communication 情绪问题：联邦公开市场委员会沟通的语气特征对金融的影响

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100768

Mehmet Fatih Sert , Ahmet Usta

This paper empirically examines the relationship between the tonal characteristics of FOMC textual communications and key financial market variables, notably the VIX index and its subcomponents: uncertainty and risk aversion. Using textual analysis of FOMC statements and minutes from 2006 to 2023, we quantify sentiment and show that tone shifts with economic conditions and follows distinct patterns. We find that tone is significantly associated with the VIX, with stronger effects for minutes than for statements, and that the uncertainty component reacts more than the risk-aversion component. Market responses to FOMC tone also intensify during periods of elevated monetary policy uncertainty. These findings underscore the distinct roles of FOMC communication tools in shaping market expectations and show that their influence depends on both the type of document and the prevailing policy environment.

本文实证研究了联邦公开市场委员会文本沟通的语气特征与关键金融市场变量之间的关系，特别是VIX指数及其子成分：不确定性和风险厌恶。通过对2006年至2023年联邦公开市场委员会声明和会议纪要的文本分析，我们量化了市场情绪，并显示出市场基调随着经济状况的变化而变化，并遵循不同的模式。我们发现，基调与波动率指数显著相关，对分钟的影响强于对声明的影响，而且不确定性成分的反应大于风险厌恶成分。在货币政策不确定性上升期间，市场对FOMC基调的反应也会加剧。这些发现强调了FOMC沟通工具在塑造市场预期方面的独特作用，并表明其影响取决于文件类型和现行政策环境。

引用次数: 0

The strength of bank-firm ties: how direct and indirect board connections affect debt financing 银行与公司关系的强度：董事会的直接和间接关系如何影响债务融资

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100777

Dmitry Kirpishchikov, Marina Zavertiaeva, Evgeniya Shenkman

This study examines how both direct and indirect links to banks, formed through board members' professional connections, affect a firm's access to debt financing. We develop a Cross-Node Proximity metric that identifies the shortest and strongest path from a firm to a bank via board interlocks, calculated using a dataset of large Russian listed firms and Russian banks. Our findings, derived from an endogenous switching regression model, reveal that both the direct inclusion of bankers on boards and indirect connections significantly influence access to long-term financing. Moreover, connections to systemically important banks are as valuable as those to other banks. This research extends existing studies on bank-firm linkages by highlighting the importance of indirect connections. We provide empirical support for the resource-based view by showing how bank directors' expertise can spread through interlocking directorships.

本研究考察了通过董事会成员的专业关系与银行形成的直接和间接联系如何影响公司获得债务融资。我们利用俄罗斯大型上市公司和俄罗斯银行的数据集，开发了一个跨节点接近度指标，通过董事会联锁确定从公司到银行的最短和最强路径。我们的研究结果来自一个内生转换回归模型，结果表明，董事会中银行家的直接加入和间接联系都显著影响了长期融资的获取。此外，与具有系统重要性的银行的联系与与其他银行的联系同样有价值。本研究通过强调间接联系的重要性，扩展了对银行-公司联系的现有研究。我们通过展示银行董事的专业知识如何通过连锁董事传播，为资源基础观点提供了实证支持。

引用次数: 0

Biodiversity risk and firms’ green investment: Evidence from China 生物多样性风险与企业绿色投资：来自中国的证据

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.026

Gang Wang

Amid growing global concerns over biodiversity risk and its financial implications, understanding how firms strategically respond to biodiversity risk has become a critical issue in sustainable finance. This study seeks to answer the research question: Does rising biodiversity risk stimulate or deter firms’ green investment? This is one of the first papers to examine firms’ green investment decisions during biodiversity risk exposure, using Chinese listed firms’ data from 2011 to 2023. Employing a fixed-effect model, we find that firms exposed to biodiversity risk increase their green investment by approximately 60.640 %, compared to firms not exposed to such risk. Furthermore, moderating effect analysis indicates that managerial shareholdings and corporate ESG performance can enhance the positive effect of biodiversity risk on firms’ green investment. Additionally, heterogeneity analysis reveals that this positive effect is more pronounced in SOEs and pollution-intensive industries. Overall, we provide empirical support for the strategic growth option theory, suggesting that firms follow a preemptive strategy during ecological risk exposure.

随着全球对生物多样性风险及其金融影响的关注日益增加，了解企业如何从战略上应对生物多样性风险已成为可持续金融的一个关键问题。本研究试图回答一个研究问题：不断上升的生物多样性风险是刺激还是阻碍了企业的绿色投资？本文利用2011 - 2023年中国上市公司的数据，首次研究了企业在生物多样性风险暴露期间的绿色投资决策。采用固定效应模型，我们发现面临生物多样性风险的企业比未面临生物多样性风险的企业增加了大约60.640%的绿色投资。此外，调节效应分析表明，管理层持股和企业ESG绩效可以增强生物多样性风险对企业绿色投资的正向影响。此外，异质性分析表明，这种正效应在国有企业和污染密集型产业中更为明显。总体而言，我们为战略成长期权理论提供了实证支持，表明企业在生态风险暴露过程中采取了先发制人的策略。

引用次数: 0

The impact of currency market shocks on global bond fund returns and volatility 外汇市场冲击对全球债券基金收益及波动率的影响

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.025

Zheng Lü , Rim El Khoury , Zhuhua Jiang , Oguzhan Ozcelebi , Seong-Min Yoon

This study employs advanced econometric models—TVP-SV-VAR, BEKK-MGARCH, DCC)-MGARCH, and WQR models—to analyse the exchange rate sensitivity of global bond ETFs. It examines four major funds (BNDX, TPINX, MGBIX, and FGBFX) with differing exposures to Samurai, Yankee, and Bulldog bonds. The results show that exchange rate shocks (YEN/USD, GBP/USD, and BTC/USD) unevenly affect ETF returns and volatility across funds and time horizons. Bitcoin-related spillovers are strongest for MGBIX and FGBFX, which are more exposed to riskier emerging market bonds. TPINX and FGBFX offer limited Bitcoin volatility hedging. While conditional hedging exists, global bond ETFs primarily serve as diversifiers rather than as consistent hedges. WQR reveals fund-specific behaviour, such as BNDX hedging GBP/USD and TPINX acting as a temporary safe haven for YEN/USD during stress. Overall, hedging effectiveness varies by fund, bond exposure, and macrofinancial conditions; however, diversification plays a dominant role.

本研究采用先进的计量经济模型（tvp - sv - var、BEKK-MGARCH、DCC -MGARCH和WQR模型）分析全球债券etf的汇率敏感性。它考察了四个主要基金（BNDX， TPINX， MGBIX和FGBFX）对武士债券，洋基债券和斗牛犬债券的不同敞口。结果表明，汇率冲击（日元/美元、英镑/美元和比特币/美元）在不同基金和时间范围内对ETF收益和波动性的影响不均匀。比特币相关的溢出效应对MGBIX和FGBFX最为强烈，这两家公司对风险更高的新兴市场债券的敞口更大。TPINX和FGBFX提供有限的比特币波动对冲。虽然存在有条件的对冲，但全球债券etf主要是作为多样化工具，而不是作为持续的对冲工具。WQR揭示了基金的特定行为，例如BNDX对冲英镑/美元，TPINX在压力期间充当日元/美元的临时避风港。总体而言，对冲效果因基金、债券敞口和宏观金融状况而异；然而，多元化发挥了主导作用。

引用次数: 0

The impact of government accounting supervision on insider trading in China 中国政府会计监管对内幕交易的影响

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100764

Lin Zhang , Fan Yong

This study examines how government accounting supervision influences insider trading in Chinese firms. Using data from 2007 to 2024 and a staggered difference-in-differences model, we find that accounting supervision significantly restrains insider trading, particularly insiders’ net-selling tendency. Government inspections also create strong spillover effects, discouraging insider trading even in firms not directly inspected. Mechanism analysis shows that shorter disclosure lags and higher reputational stress are key channels. The deterrent effect is stronger in non-state-owned enterprises, among top executives, and in capital-intensive industries. Overall, the results demonstrate that government accounting supervision functions as an effective external governance tool and provide policy guidance for enhancing market oversight.

本研究探讨政府会计监管对中国公司内幕交易的影响。利用2007 - 2024年的数据和交错差中差模型，我们发现会计监管显著抑制内幕交易，特别是内部人的净卖出倾向。政府检查也会产生强烈的溢出效应，即使在没有直接检查的公司也会阻止内幕交易。机制分析表明，较短的披露滞后和较高的声誉压力是关键渠道。在非国有企业、高层管理人员和资本密集型行业中，这种威慑效应更强。综上所述，政府会计监管作为一种有效的外部治理工具，为加强市场监管提供了政策指导。

引用次数: 0

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