Borsa Istanbul Review最新文献

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The reaction of cryptocurrencies to the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs: An intraday event study 加密货币对现货比特币和以太坊etf批准的反应：一项日内事件研究

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.002

Seyed Mehdian , Ștefan Cristian Gherghina , Ovidiu Stoica

This paper examines the market reaction to the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), focusing on the return dynamics of a functionally diverse types of leading cryptocurrencies, including coins (BTC, BCH, LTC, XRP), smart contract platforms (ETH, ADA, AVAX), and utility tokens (LINK, MATIC). Using high-frequency intraday data, we perform an event study to assess the abnormal returns around the ETF approval dates. This study makes a significant contribution to the literature on event studies by being the first to examine investors’ reactions to information arrival in a “primary market.” Both the market model and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) are applied to evaluate the effects of ETF approval on individual asset returns. Our results reveal that spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission leads to significant positive abnormal returns, along with heightened market volatility. In contrast, spot Ethereum ETF approval has had more modest effects. Moreover, we observe considerable shifts in the volatility spillovers among Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major cryptocurrencies after the ETF approval, reflecting a change in market sentiment and interconnectedness. This analysis enhances understanding of how institutional products, such as ETFs, shape cryptocurrency market behavior, offering valuable insights for regulatory frameworks and investor strategies.

本文研究了市场对现货比特币和以太坊交易所交易基金（etf）批准的反应，重点关注功能不同类型的领先加密货币的回报动态，包括硬币（BTC， BCH， LTC， XRP），智能合约平台（ETH， ADA， AVAX）和实用代币（LINK， MATIC）。利用高频日内数据，我们进行了一项事件研究，以评估ETF批准日期前后的异常回报。本研究首次考察了投资者对“一级市场”信息到达的反应，对事件研究的文献做出了重大贡献。本文采用市场模型和资本资产定价模型（CAPM）来评估ETF批准对个人资产收益的影响。我们的研究结果表明，美国证券交易委员会批准的现货比特币ETF导致显著的正异常收益，同时市场波动加剧。相比之下，现货以太坊ETF批准的影响更为温和。此外，我们观察到，在ETF获批后，比特币、以太坊和其他主要加密货币之间的波动性溢出效应发生了相当大的变化，反映了市场情绪和互联性的变化。这一分析增强了对机构产品（如etf）如何影响加密货币市场行为的理解，为监管框架和投资者策略提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Greenness and capital investment decisions: Evidence from NYSE firms 绿色与资本投资决策：来自纽交所公司的证据

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.07.013

Berna N. Yılmaz, Seza Danışoğlu

This study explores the impact of greenness on real capital investment on all New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) firms between 2002 and 2021. We measure the greenness of a firm by adjusting the environmental component of its environmental, social, and governance (ESG) score for industry and market effects. The relationship between greenness and investment is examined using two different methodologies. The dynamic panel regression results show that green firms invest more, regardless of how greenness is defined. The quantile regression results imply that companies that have lower levels of capital investment tend to invest more when they are greener, compared to companies that have higher levels of capital investment. The findings of the study are consistent with Pastor, Stambaugh, and Taylor's (2021) prediction that the market will become greener over time because greener firms have higher levels of capital investment compared to brown firms.

本研究探讨了绿色对2002年至2021年间所有纽约证券交易所（NYSE）公司实际资本投资的影响。我们通过调整其环境、社会和治理（ESG）得分的环境成分对行业和市场影响来衡量企业的绿色度。绿色和投资之间的关系使用两种不同的方法进行检验。动态面板回归结果表明，无论绿色度如何定义，绿色企业的投资都更多。分位数回归结果表明，与资本投资水平较高的公司相比，资本投资水平较低的公司在更环保的情况下往往会投资更多。该研究的结果与Pastor、Stambaugh和Taylor（2021）的预测一致，即随着时间的推移，市场将变得更加绿色，因为绿色企业的资本投资水平高于棕色企业。

引用次数: 0

Dynamic responses of Bitcoin, gold, and green bonds to geopolitical risk: A quantile wavelet analysis 比特币、黄金和绿色债券对地缘政治风险的动态响应：分位数小波分析

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.07.002

Sami Mejri , Arturo Leccadito , Ramazan Yildirim

This study investigates the heterogeneous responses of Bitcoin (BTC), gold (GOLD), and green bonds (GBOND) to geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks across different market regimes and investment horizons. Using a triadic empirical framework that encompasses wavelet quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR), wavelet cross-quantilogram (WCQ), and advanced portfolio optimization strategies, our analysis captures asymmetric dependence, tail risks, and time-frequency dynamics from January 2015 to December 2024. Our results show that BTC consistently has strong hedging potential at lower quantiles, particularly during short-term stress, whereas GOLD and GBOND offer greater stability over medium- and long-term horizons. Conditional expected shortfall (CES) and extreme downside correlation (EDC) analyses highlight BTC's resilience to extreme downside risks, whereas GOLD and GBOND serve primarily as long-term defensive assets. Portfolio optimization confirms BTC's critical role in diversification under minimum correlation and connectedness strategies, and GBOND dominates variance-minimizing portfolios. These findings offer practical guidance for constructing robust, adaptive portfolios under geopolitical uncertainty.

本研究探讨了比特币（BTC）、黄金（gold）和绿色债券（GBOND）在不同市场制度和投资视野下对地缘政治风险（GPR）冲击的异质反应。利用包含小波分位数-分位数回归（QQR）、小波交叉量化图（WCQ）和高级投资组合优化策略的三合一经验框架，我们的分析捕获了2015年1月至2024年12月期间的不对称依赖性、尾部风险和时频动态。我们的研究结果表明，比特币在较低的分位数下始终具有强大的对冲潜力，特别是在短期压力下，而黄金和GBOND在中长期内提供了更大的稳定性。条件预期缺口（CES）和极端下行相关性（EDC）分析强调了比特币对极端下行风险的抵御能力，而黄金和GBOND主要作为长期防御性资产。投资组合优化证实了最小关联和连通性策略下BTC在多元化中的关键作用，GBOND在方差最小化投资组合中占主导地位。这些发现为在地缘政治不确定性下构建稳健的适应性投资组合提供了实践指导。

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引用次数: 0

High-frequency dynamics of Bitcoin futures: An examination of market microstructure 比特币期货的高频动态：市场微观结构的检验

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.07.016

Mateus Gonzalez de Freitas Pinto

We investigate the high-frequency dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures traded on Binance from January 2020 to December 2024. After a thorough discussion of the stylized facts and particularities of Bitcoin perpetual futures, based on previous research in futures markets, we evaluate the fit of two competing models of market microstructure: the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis (MDH) and the Intraday Trading Invariance Hypothesis (ITIH). Using intraday data at different levels of aggregation, we investigate the relationship between return volatility per transaction and trade size. We find evidence favoring the MDH in the crypto futures market.

我们研究了从2020年1月到2024年12月在币安交易的比特币和以太坊永久期货的高频动态。在深入讨论了比特币永续期货的风规化事实和特殊性之后，基于之前对期货市场的研究，我们评估了两个相互竞争的市场微观结构模型：混合分布假设（MDH）和即日交易不变性假设（ITIH）。利用不同聚合水平的日内数据，我们研究了每笔交易的收益波动率与交易规模之间的关系。我们在加密货币期货市场中发现了有利于MDH的证据。

引用次数: 0

Hybrid forecasting of agricultural commodity prices: Integrating machine learning, time series, and stochastic simulation models 农产品价格的混合预测：整合机器学习、时间序列和随机模拟模型

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.004

Busra Agan Celik , Serdar Celik

This study examines a hybrid forecasting framework to evaluate the predictive performance of time series models (ARIMA, VAR), deep learning (LSTM), and stochastic simulations (GBM, FBM, BB) in forecasting agricultural commodity prices during global crises. Using daily data from 1985 to 2024, the analysis spans nine crisis periods, including the Global Financial Crisis, COVID-19, and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and focuses on seven major agricultural commodities. Forecasting accuracy (MAPE, RMSE), risk (VaR), and return metrics are used to evaluate model performance. Results show that LSTM outperforms other models in capturing nonlinear dynamics during volatile episodes, whereas ARIMA provides stable results in shorter-term, low-volatility settings. GBM offers the best balance of forecast precision and risk-adjusted returns among stochastic models. In contrast, FBM captures memory effects but produces higher volatility. The findings highlight the importance of adaptive, context-specific forecasting models to enhance policy responses in food security, trade resilience, and agricultural risk management.

本研究考察了一个混合预测框架，以评估时间序列模型（ARIMA、VAR）、深度学习（LSTM）和随机模拟（GBM、FBM、BB）在预测全球危机期间农产品价格方面的预测性能。利用1985年至2024年的日常数据，该分析跨越了9个危机时期，包括全球金融危机、2019冠状病毒病和俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突，并重点关注7种主要农产品。预测精度（MAPE， RMSE），风险（VaR）和回报度量被用来评估模型的性能。结果表明，LSTM在捕获波动时段的非线性动力学方面优于其他模型，而ARIMA在短期、低波动环境下提供稳定的结果。在随机模型中，GBM提供了预测精度和风险调整收益的最佳平衡。相比之下，FBM捕获了记忆效应，但产生了更高的波动性。研究结果强调了适应性的、针对具体情况的预测模型对于加强粮食安全、贸易抵御力和农业风险管理方面的政策响应的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Knowledge, attitude or risk? What drives the financial literacy gaps of university staff? 知识、态度还是风险？是什么导致了大学员工的金融知识差距？

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.032

Ibrahim Ayoade Adekunle , Tolulope Oyakhilome Williams , Robin Maialeh , Muiz Adeniji Adegbenro

This study examines the extent to which variations in financial knowledge, attitudes and risk preferences shape the educational investment behaviour of academic and non-academic university staff. Our findings revealed distinct patterns. We documented that being armed with a sound financial knowledge significantly influences the educational investment decisions of academic staff, thus facilitating informed decision-making. We also documented that financial attitudes and risk tolerance exert positive impacts, thus indicating that confidence in terms of one's financial management informs educational advancement. Conversely, a sound financial knowledge does not predict the take-up of further education for non-academic staff, while financial attitudes and risk aversion exert negative impacts, thus suggesting that financial constraints and limited careers inhibit investment in higher education. Institutional dynamics and socio-economic conditions further moderate these relationships and expose structural barriers to financial literacy. The findings identified the necessity for tailored financial literacy intervention measures that address the occupational stratifications and institutional constraints that hinder educational progression.

本研究考察了金融知识、态度和风险偏好的变化在多大程度上影响了学术和非学术大学员工的教育投资行为。我们的发现揭示了不同的模式。我们证明，拥有良好的金融知识会显著影响学术人员的教育投资决策，从而促进明智的决策。我们还证明了财务态度和风险承受能力会产生积极影响，从而表明个人财务管理方面的信心会影响教育进步。相反，良好的财务知识并不能预测非学术人员继续接受教育，而财务态度和风险规避则会产生负面影响，从而表明财务约束和有限的职业限制了高等教育的投资。制度动态和社会经济条件进一步缓和了这些关系，并暴露了金融知识的结构性障碍。研究结果表明，有必要采取量身定制的金融素养干预措施，解决阻碍教育进步的职业分层和制度限制问题。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of financial literacy on financial development: A cross-country analysis 金融素养对金融发展的影响：一个跨国分析

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.017

Asuman Koç Yurtkur , Yunus Kilic , Mehmet Fatih Bugan , Sel Dibooglu , Emrah I. Cevik

This study investigates the impact of financial literacy on financial development across a large set of countries, utilizing data from the Global Financial Inclusion and Consumer Protection (GFICP) surveys conducted in 2017 and 2022. Using baseline OLS regressions, the results reveal that financial literacy significantly enhances financial development, particularly in upper-middle-, lower-middle-, and low-income countries. The study also highlights regional variations, with the East Asia and Pacific region demonstrating the most substantial positive relationship. Additionally, the quantile regression analysis indicates that the effect of financial literacy on financial development is more pronounced in countries with either highly developed or underdeveloped financial systems. These results underscore the importance of designing context-specific financial education policies, particularly in developing economies, where improvements in foundational financial knowledge can play a catalytic role in strengthening financial systems.

本研究利用2017年和2022年进行的全球金融普惠和消费者保护（GFICP）调查的数据，调查了金融素养对许多国家金融发展的影响。使用基线OLS回归，结果显示金融知识显著促进了金融发展，特别是在中高、中低和低收入国家。该研究还强调了地区差异，东亚和太平洋地区表现出最实质性的积极关系。此外，分位数回归分析表明，金融素养对金融发展的影响在金融体系高度发达或不发达的国家更为明显。这些结果强调了设计针对具体情况的金融教育政策的重要性，特别是在发展中经济体，基础金融知识的改善可以在加强金融体系方面发挥催化作用。

引用次数: 0

Financial citizenship beyond borders: Validation of a model between Brazil and France 超越国界的金融公民：巴西和法国模式的验证

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.015

Ana Luiza Paraboni , Ani Caroline Grigion Potrich , Kelmara Mendes Vieira

This study proposed and validated a model of financial citizenship that integrates financial literacy, inclusion, and protection, comparing its applicability and mean differences between Brazilians and French. A sample from both countries was investigated. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, structural equation modeling, model invariance testing, and mean differences analysis. The invariance analysis confirmed that the model has an equivalent factor structure in both countries, enabling valid and consistent comparisons. The results indicated no significant differences in the mean scores for financial literacy and financial protection between the groups, possibly due to similarities in national financial education strategies. However, Brazilians scored significantly higher in financial inclusion and citizenship, suggesting some advances in financial practices in Brazil (e.g., the adoption of PIX) and thus expand access to digital banking services. This work advances the cross-cultural validity of the financial citizenship model and demonstrates its usefulness for international research.

本研究提出并验证了一个集金融素养、包容性和保护于一体的金融公民模型，并比较了该模型在巴西人和法国人之间的适用性和均值差异。对两国的样本进行了调查。采用描述性统计、结构方程建模、模型不变性检验和均值差异分析对数据进行分析。不变性分析证实，该模型在两国具有等效的因子结构，使比较有效和一致。结果显示，两组学生在金融素养和金融保护方面的平均分没有显著差异，这可能是由于各国的金融教育策略相似所致。然而，巴西人在金融包容性和公民身份方面的得分明显更高，这表明巴西在金融实践方面取得了一些进步（例如，采用PIX），从而扩大了数字银行服务的可及性。本研究提高了金融公民模型的跨文化有效性，并证明了其对国际研究的有用性。

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引用次数: 0

The critical role of financial literacy in enhancing firm success 金融知识在促进企业成功中的关键作用

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.014

Simona-Mihaela Ichim , Alin Vid

The role of financial literacy in fostering firm performance has gained increasing attention in contemporary research. This paper introduces a novel methodology for identifying successful companies, utilizing unique and granular data derived from financial statements and the Central Credit Registry. To determine the critical importance of financial literacy for firm success, this study examines a substantial sample of firms to evaluate their financial capabilities, fill gaps in empirical evidence, and enhance the reliability and generalizability of the results. Our analysis investigates how varying levels of financial literacy, digitalization, and educational attainment among firm managers impact company success. By employing logit models, we identify a series of characteristics that have proven to be important for company success in Romania. According to the results, essential characteristics shaping company success include the educational attainment of top management, the level of financial literacy, and digitalization, as well as solvency, liquidity, and the firm's financing through bank loans. Our insights underscore the need for targeted financial literacy programs and policy interventions aimed at improving managerial competencies. Thus, we provide valuable findings for both policymakers and academia, suggesting that investing in financial literacy is essential for the performance and long-term viability of firms.

在当代研究中，金融知识在促进企业绩效方面的作用越来越受到关注。本文介绍了一种识别成功公司的新方法，利用来自财务报表和中央信用登记处的独特和颗粒数据。为了确定财务素养对企业成功的关键重要性，本研究考察了大量公司样本，以评估其财务能力，填补经验证据的空白，并提高结果的可靠性和普遍性。我们的分析调查了公司管理人员中不同水平的金融知识、数字化和教育程度如何影响公司的成功。通过采用logit模型，我们确定了一系列已被证明对罗马尼亚公司成功至关重要的特征。根据研究结果，决定公司成功的基本特征包括高层管理人员的受教育程度、金融知识水平和数字化，以及偿付能力、流动性和公司通过银行贷款的融资。我们的见解强调了有针对性的金融知识普及计划和旨在提高管理能力的政策干预的必要性。因此，我们为政策制定者和学术界提供了有价值的发现，表明投资金融知识对公司的绩效和长期生存能力至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Financial literacy, stockholding, and self-directed pension investment 金融知识，股票持有和自主养老金投资

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.07.006

Joelle H. Fong , Olivia S. Mitchell

The rise of self-directed retirement accounts globally has provided stock market access to millions of savers via defined contribution (DC) plans, yet investments in such plans are understudied. Using a representative survey in Singapore, we show that respondents’ Big Three financial literacy has positive causal effects on stockholding both inside and outside DC plans, and the impact is substantial: a one-unit higher literacy score boosts publicly-traded securities held by 16 percentage points in DC accounts, 25 percentage points outside DC plans, and 38 percentage points overall. This implies that, if DC holdings are ignored, the positive impact of financial literacy on individual stockholding is biased downward by a third. Financial literacy also significantly encourages mutual fund holdings in DC accounts. Accordingly, boosting financial literacy could meaningfully enhance stock market participation directly and indirectly.

全球自主退休账户的兴起，为数百万储户提供了通过固定缴款（DC）计划进入股市的机会，但对这类计划的投资还没有得到充分研究。通过在新加坡进行的一项代表性调查，我们发现受访者的三大金融知识对DC计划内外的股票持有都有积极的因果影响，而且影响是实质性的：知识得分每提高一个单位，DC账户中持有的公开交易证券就会增加16个百分点，DC计划外持有的证券就会增加25个百分点，总体持有的证券就会增加38个百分点。这意味着，如果忽略DC持股，金融知识对个人持股的积极影响将向下倾斜三分之一。金融知识也极大地鼓励了共同基金在DC账户中的持有。因此，提高金融知识水平可以直接和间接地提高股市参与度。

引用次数: 0

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