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A fragile public preference for cyber strikes: Evidence from survey experiments in the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel 公众对网络攻击的脆弱偏好:来自美国、英国和以色列调查实验的证据
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2020.1868836
Ryan Shandler, M. L. Gross, Daphna Canetti
ABSTRACT To what extent does the public support the use of cyber weapons? We propose that public exposure to the destructive potential of cyber-attacks will dispel the clear cross-national preference for cyber strikes. To test this, we conducted two survey experiments (n = 2,585) that examine support for cyber versus conventional military strikes in the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel. In study 1, we exposed respondents to television news reports depicting various forms of terror attacks, and then measured the subsequent support for retaliatory options. Findings indicate that the high public support for deploying cyber weapons dissipated entirely among respondents exposed to lethal cyber-attacks. In study 2, we probed this vanishing support, finding that exposure to destructive cyber-attacks undercuts the perception of cyber as a less lethal domain, therefore diminishing its appeal. We conclude by discussing how the fragile public preference for cyber weapons encourages military escalation in the short-term.
摘要公众在多大程度上支持使用网络武器?我们建议,公众暴露于网络攻击的破坏性潜力将消除跨国家对网络攻击的明显偏好。为了验证这一点,我们进行了两个调查实验(n = 2585)审查了对美国、英国和以色列网络与常规军事打击的支持。在研究1中,我们让受访者接触描述各种形式恐怖袭击的电视新闻报道,然后衡量随后对报复选择的支持程度。调查结果表明,公众对部署网络武器的高度支持在遭受致命网络攻击的受访者中完全消失。在研究2中,我们探讨了这种正在消失的支持,发现暴露在破坏性网络攻击中会削弱人们对网络是一个杀伤力较小的领域的看法,从而削弱其吸引力。最后,我们讨论了公众对网络武器的脆弱偏好如何在短期内鼓励军事升级。
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引用次数: 20
Stability abroad, instability at home? Changing UN peace operations and civil–military relations in Global South troop contributing countries 国外稳定,国内不稳定?不断变化的联合国和平行动与全球南方部队派遣国的军民关系
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1883276
K. Kenkel
ABSTRACT This article highlights the domestic effects of the ongoing changes in United Nations peacekeeping practice on troop contributing states from the Global South. It juxtaposes scholarship on stabilization, the specific motivations of Global South troop contributing countries, and in particular the effects on civilian control of armed forces of peacekeeping participation. It argues that the “diversionary peace” hypothesis—which posits beneficial effects on civilian control for peacekeeping—has not obtained, and that current developments in United Nations peace operations will negatively affect civil–military relations in postcolonial sending countries. The text suggests avenues for future inquiry. One is the notion that stabilization may lead to a net negative effect on civilian control in unconsolidated democracies. This is due to stabilization's increased militarization, and its turn towards objectives that mimic the counterinsurgency mandates associated with military rule in the Global South, rather than a focus on the socioeconomic well-being of local populations.
摘要:本文重点介绍了联合国维和实践的持续变化对全球南方部队派遣国的国内影响。它将有关稳定的学术研究、全球南方部队派遣国的具体动机,特别是参与维持和平对文职控制武装部队的影响并列。它认为,“转移性和平”假说——假定文职控制对维持和平有利——尚未得到证实,而且联合国和平行动目前的发展将对后殖民派遣国的文职-军事关系产生负面影响。这篇文章为今后的研究提出了途径。一种观点认为,在不巩固的民主国家,稳定可能导致对文官控制的净负面影响。这是由于稳定化的军事化程度不断提高,其目标转向模仿与全球南方军事统治相关的反叛乱任务,而不是关注当地人口的社会经济福祉。
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引用次数: 9
Responding to the crisis in United Nations peace operations 对联合国和平行动中的危机作出反应
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1899543
K. Kenkel, C. Foley
ABSTRACT This special forum discusses the future trajectory of UN peace operations at a time many stakeholders and analysts consider to be one of crisis, contestation, or at the very least transition. The UN is facing difficulties in responding effectively to many of the world’s worst recent conflicts, even where it has (or until recently had) operations. Even before COVID-19, the blue helmets were facing a period of serious retrenchment and budgetary constraints. Mission mandates have experienced a transformation, from the recent “robust turn” to the incorporation of stabilization mandates grounded in counterinsurgency/counterterrorism doctrine. The crossroads of economic downturn, geopolitical realignment and continuous adaptation of peacekeeping practice provides the backdrop of the contributions to the special forum that follows. The analyses presented here not only accompany the ongoing evolution of the nexus of issues that constitute peacekeeping studies but also reflect the breadth and depth of the extensive attendant academic literature.
本次特别论坛讨论了联合国和平行动的未来轨迹,许多利益攸关方和分析人士认为这是一个危机、争议或至少是过渡时期。联合国在有效应对世界上许多最近最严重的冲突方面面临困难,即使在它已经(或直到最近才)开展行动的地方也是如此。甚至在2019冠状病毒病之前,蓝盔部队就面临着严重紧缩和预算紧张的时期。特派团的任务经历了转变,从最近的“强劲转向”到纳入基于反叛乱/反恐原则的稳定任务。经济衰退、地缘政治调整和维持和平实践不断调整的十字路口,是下文特别论坛的背景。这里提出的分析不仅伴随着构成维持和平研究的各种问题之间关系的不断演变,而且也反映了随之而来的大量学术文献的广度和深度。
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引用次数: 5
UN peace operations in a multipolar order: Building peace through the rule of law and bottom-up approaches 多极秩序下的联合国和平行动:通过法治和自下而上的方法建设和平
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1898166
Kari M. Osland, Mateja Peter
ABSTRACT UN peace operations need a new peacebuilding agenda that acknowledges both the transboundary nature of conflict drivers and the multipolar nature of the global order. This means casting aside the current stabilization approach, but also abandoning the pursuit of liberal peacebuilding of the unipolar era. Such a conflict transformation agenda would require UN peace operations to prioritize the rule of law and bottom-up approaches, thus creating the potential to be embraced by a much broader range of member states. In this article, we bring liberal peacebuilding critiques into a discussion with debates on the nature of the global order. Liberal peacebuilding critiques are rooted in the bottom-up problematization of international interventions and show what kind of peacebuilding is desirable. Conversely, the debates on the multipolar nature of the global order expose the top-down constraints as to what kind of peacebuilding is feasible.
联合国和平行动需要一个新的建设和平议程,既承认冲突驱动因素的跨界性质,也承认全球秩序的多极性质。这意味着放弃目前的稳定方法,但也放弃追求单极时代的自由建设和平。这样的冲突转型议程将要求联合国和平行动优先考虑法治和自下而上的方法,从而创造被更广泛的成员国接受的潜力。在这篇文章中,我们将自由主义的建设和平批评纳入关于全球秩序性质的讨论和辩论中。自由的建设和平批评植根于国际干预自下而上的问题化,并表明什么样的建设和平是可取的。相反,关于全球秩序多极性质的辩论暴露了自上而下的制约因素,即什么样的建设和平是可行的。
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引用次数: 14
The future of UN peace operations: Principled adaptation through phases of contraction, moderation, and renewal 联合国和平行动的未来:通过收缩、缓和和更新阶段进行有原则的适应
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1894021
Cedric de Coning
ABSTRACT This article considers the future of UN peace operations through a complexity theory lens. In the short-term peacekeeping will have to adapt to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fall-out of the Trump presidency. In the medium-term peacekeeping will go through a phase of uncertainty and turbulence due to geopolitical power shifts in the global order. In the longer-term peacekeeping will have to adapt to a new multipolar global order characterized by coexistence, and a changing security landscape shaped by, among others, climate change, urbanization, and new technologies. Throughout these contraction, moderation, and adjustment phases, UN peacekeeping is likely to be guided by a principled adaptive approach, that allows it to adapt to the realities of the moment whilst staying true to its core form and identity. As a result, UN peacekeeping is likely to remain one of the most visible symbols of global governance and international cooperation.
摘要本文从复杂性理论的视角来思考联合国和平行动的未来。在短期内,维和行动将不得不适应新冠肺炎疫情和特朗普总统任期失败的后果。在中期,由于全球秩序中地缘政治力量的转变,维和行动将经历一个不确定和动荡的阶段。从长远来看,维和行动必须适应以共存为特征的多极全球新秩序,以及由气候变化、城市化和新技术等因素塑造的不断变化的安全格局。在这些收缩、缓和和调整阶段,联合国维和行动可能会以原则性的适应性方法为指导,使其能够适应当前的现实,同时保持其核心形式和身份。因此,联合国维和行动很可能仍然是全球治理和国际合作最明显的象征之一。
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引用次数: 18
Protecting hidden infrastructure: The security politics of the global submarine data cable network 保护隐藏的基础设施:全球海底数据电缆网络的安全政治
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-03-29 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1907129
Christian Bueger, Tobias Liebetrau
ABSTRACT Undersea communication cables are the core critical infrastructure of the digital age. 99% of all transoceanic digital communication—financial transactions, emails, or voice messaging—is transported through undersea fiber-optic cables. The global submarine cable network is a critical infrastructure that does not receive the analytical attention it deserves. We argue that cable security is a core dimension of current and future international security governance. We present the first systematic survey of the academic discourses that investigate the politics, governance, and protection of submarine data cables. Three rather narrow literatures study the cables (1) as under threat from hybrid warfare and terrorism, or treat the cable network narrowly as a (2) technical or (3) regulatory problem. We demonstrate the need for broadening out the research agenda and addressing key questions of security governance and geopolitics of this increasingly critical infrastructure.
摘要海底通信电缆是数字时代的核心关键基础设施。99%的跨洋数字通信——金融交易、电子邮件或语音信息——都是通过海底光纤电缆传输的。全球海底电缆网络是一个关键的基础设施,没有得到应有的分析关注。我们认为,有线电视安全是当前和未来国际安全治理的核心内容。我们对研究海底数据电缆的政治、治理和保护的学术话语进行了首次系统调查。三篇相当狭窄的文献研究了电缆(1)受到混合战争和恐怖主义的威胁,或将电缆网络狭隘地视为(2)技术或(3)监管问题。我们表明,有必要扩大研究议程,解决这一日益关键的基础设施的安全治理和地缘政治等关键问题。
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引用次数: 14
The regulation of private military and security companies: Analyzing power in multi-stakeholder initiatives 私营军事和安保公司的监管:多利益相关者倡议中的权力分析
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-03-05 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1897225
B. Prem
ABSTRACT This article studies the limitations of multi-stakeholder initiatives (MSIs) relating to Private Military and Security Companies (PMSCs). It draws attention to three distinct ways in which power operates in and around MSIs: rules, structural positions, and discourses. Based on an analysis of two MSIs, it shows that these governance initiatives strengthen the perspectives of stakeholders that consider PMSCs as normal and legitimate security actors. Western governments and like-minded actors have used the Swiss Initiative and the International Code of Conduct for Security Service Providers to bypass the less privatization-friendly process in the United Nations. MSIs equally perform an important legitimizing function for PMSCs through their discourses and practices. Finally, participants of the MSIs have relegated critical voices, weakening their ability to partake in governing the PMSC industry. By studying the limitations of MSIs through a power-analytical lens, this article therefore points at an important but overlooked dimension.
本文研究了与私营军事和安全公司(PMSCs)相关的多利益相关者倡议(msi)的局限性。它让人们注意到权力在msi内部和周围运作的三种不同方式:规则、结构位置和话语。基于对两个msi的分析,本文表明,这些治理举措加强了将PMSCs视为正常和合法安全行为者的利益相关者的观点。西方政府和志同道合的行动者利用《瑞士倡议》和《安全服务提供者国际行为准则》绕过了联合国对私有化不那么友好的程序。msi同样通过其话语和实践为PMSCs发挥重要的合法化功能。最后,msi的参与者降低了批评的声音,削弱了他们参与管理PMSC行业的能力。通过从功率分析的角度研究msi的局限性,本文指出了一个重要但被忽视的维度。
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引用次数: 5
The ambiguity of hybrid warfare: A qualitative content analysis of the United Kingdom's political–military discourse on Russia's hostile activities 混合战争的模糊性:英国对俄罗斯敌对活动的政治-军事话语的定性内容分析
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-02-18 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1885921
Silvie Janičatová, P. Mlejnková
ABSTRACT Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, hybrid warfare has become a widely used yet ambiguous term to describe Russia's hostile activities. In academic publications and policy documents, there have been a plethora of different definitions and concepts to make sense of hybrid warfare. This article takes a bottom-up approach and analyzes the discourse of political and military representatives in the United Kingdom to explore how they understand hybrid warfare by Russia and what the implications are for defense policy. Using qualitative content analysis with quantitative aspects, the results show not only a range of different terms used to describe Russia's hostile activities, but also that the discussed topics do not reflect one particular definition of hybrid warfare. The analysis further reveals that representatives highlight non-military aspects of hybrid warfare over the military ones and consider the role of defense policy dependent on the nature of a particular hybrid threat.
自2014年吞并克里米亚以来,混合战争已经成为一个被广泛使用但又模棱两可的术语来描述俄罗斯的敌对活动。在学术出版物和政策文件中,有大量不同的定义和概念来解释混合战争。本文采用自下而上的方法,分析了英国政治和军事代表的话语,以探讨他们如何理解俄罗斯的混合战争以及对国防政策的影响。通过定量方面的定性内容分析,结果不仅显示了用于描述俄罗斯敌对活动的一系列不同术语,而且所讨论的主题并没有反映混合战争的一个特定定义。分析进一步表明,代表们强调混合战争的非军事方面,而不是军事方面,并考虑国防政策的作用取决于特定混合威胁的性质。
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引用次数: 10
Peace operations are what states make of them: Why future evolution is more likely than extinction 和平行动是由国家决定的:为什么未来的进化比灭绝更有可能
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-02-08 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1882802
K. P. Coleman, Paul D. Williams
ABSTRACT Peace operations are a highly resilient international institution for managing armed conflict. Their resilience derives from what constructivists in International Relations theory call collective intentionality and the malleable constitutive rules that define and structure such missions. Despite a range of current constraints, challenges, and crises, peace operations are unlikely to become extinct unless a critical mass of states consistently withdraw material support for them and explicitly denigrate the concept of peace operations itself. We see little evidence that both these things are likely to occur. However, the constitutive rules guiding peace operations are likely to continue to evolve due to ideational and material changes. While the proliferation of actors and mission types makes precise predictions impossible, we expect an evolution both in how various actors define their own peace operations and how these actors relate to each other.
和平行动是管理武装冲突的一个具有高度弹性的国际机构。它们的弹性源于国际关系理论中的建构主义者所说的集体意向性,以及定义和构建此类使命的可塑构成规则。尽管目前存在一系列限制、挑战和危机,但除非大量国家持续撤回对和平行动的物质支持,并明确诋毁和平行动本身的概念,否则和平行动不太可能消失。几乎没有证据表明这两件事都可能发生。但是,指导和平行动的构成规则可能会由于理念和物质上的变化而继续演变。虽然行动者和任务类型的激增使精确的预测变得不可能,但我们期望各种行动者如何定义自己的和平行动以及这些行动者如何相互关联方面都将发生变化。
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引用次数: 15
The crafting of alliance cohesion among insurgents: The case of al-Qaeda affiliated groups in the Sahel region 叛乱分子之间的联盟凝聚力:萨赫勒地区基地组织附属团体的案例
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-22 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1876455
Troels Burchall Henningsen
ABSTRACT In spite of several international interventions to contain and degrade militant groups in the Sahel region, al-Qaeda affiliated groups have managed to retain their alliance and even spread and intensify their use of violence. This article explains the cohesion of the insurgency alliance as the outcome of a number of sound strategic decisions. By applying a framework of irregular strategy, the article examines the processes of early adaption to pre-existing social networks and the subsequent shaping through political, violent, and communicative lines of effort. Although the primary purpose of the strategy was not alliance cohesion, the result is that al-Qaeda related networks cooperate across ethnic and social cleavages, despite the many setbacks and dilemmas that local politics generate. The article adds an agency-oriented perspective to the growing literature on insurgency fragmentation and cohesion, which are major factors in the outcome of civil wars.
摘要尽管国际社会多次干预以遏制和削弱萨赫勒地区的激进组织,但与基地组织有关联的组织仍设法保持了联盟关系,甚至传播和加强了暴力使用。本文将叛乱联盟的凝聚力解释为一系列合理战略决策的结果。通过应用非规则策略的框架,本文考察了早期适应预先存在的社会网络的过程,以及随后通过政治、暴力和沟通渠道形成的过程。尽管该战略的主要目的不是联盟凝聚力,但其结果是,尽管当地政治造成了许多挫折和困境,但与基地组织有关的网络在种族和社会分裂中进行了合作。这篇文章为越来越多的关于叛乱分裂和凝聚力的文献增加了一个以机构为导向的视角,这是内战结果的主要因素。
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引用次数: 5
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Contemporary Security Policy
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