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Externalizing EU crisis management: EU orchestration of the OSCE during the Ukrainian conflict 外部化欧盟危机管理:乌克兰冲突期间欧盟对欧安组织的协调
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1985287
Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré
ABSTRACT Despite the Lisbon Treaty's modifications in the foreign and security policy domain, the EU has frequently relied on third parties to address external conflicts and crises. Using the Ukrainian conflict as a case study, this article adopts the orchestration model to explain why and how the EU enlists intermediary actors over which it has no formal control to pursue its objectives. It finds that in this conflict the EU outsourced part of its crisis management activities to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe because it lacked the civilian and military capabilities, as well as the regulatory competence and reputation to challenge Russia. Indeed, the Ukrainian case shows that orchestration has emerged as a crucial governance arrangement for the functioning of EU crisis management, raising serious questions about the EU overall capacity to act as a security provider in an international system marred by contestation and hard security concerns.
摘要尽管《里斯本条约》在外交和安全政策领域进行了修改,但欧盟经常依赖第三方来解决外部冲突和危机。本文以乌克兰冲突为例,采用协调模型来解释欧盟为什么以及如何招募其没有正式控制权的中间行为者来追求其目标。它发现,在这场冲突中,欧盟将其部分危机管理活动外包给了欧洲安全与合作组织,因为它缺乏民事和军事能力,也缺乏挑战俄罗斯的监管能力和声誉。事实上,乌克兰的案件表明,协调已成为欧盟危机管理运作的一项关键治理安排,这对欧盟在一个充满争议和严重安全问题的国际体系中作为安全提供者的整体能力提出了严重质疑。
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引用次数: 7
A machine learning approach to the study of German strategic culture 用机器学习方法研究德国战略文化
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1992150
Jonathan Tappe, Fredrik Doeser
ABSTRACT This article introduces supervised machine learning to the study of German strategic culture, analyzing both how German strategic culture has changed and the impact of strategic culture on Germany's military engagement between 1990 and 2017. In contrast with previous qualitative research on strategic culture, supervised machine learning can yield measurable and empirical insights into strategic culture and its effects at any given point in time over a very long period, based on the reproduction of human coding of a very extensive set of security policy documents. The article shows that German strategic culture has changed slowly and in a nonlinear way after the Cold War, and that strategic culture, when controlling for confounding variables and the temporal order, has a measurable impact on Germany's military engagement. The article demonstrates the analytical value of machine learning for future studies of strategic culture.
摘要本文将监督机器学习引入德国战略文化研究,分析了德国战略文化在1990年至2017年间的变化以及战略文化对德国军事参与的影响。与以往对战略文化的定性研究相比,基于对一套非常广泛的安全政策文件的人工编码,监督机器学习可以在很长一段时间内对战略文化及其影响产生可衡量的实证见解。文章表明,冷战后,德国的战略文化发生了缓慢而非线性的变化,战略文化在控制混杂变量和时间顺序时,对德国的军事参与产生了可衡量的影响。本文论证了机器学习对未来战略文化研究的分析价值。
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引用次数: 2
The limitations of strategic narratives: The Sino-American struggle over the meaning of COVID-19 战略叙事的局限性:中美对COVID-19意义的斗争
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1984725
Linus Hagström, Karl Gustafsson
ABSTRACT Recent research has explored how the Sino-American narrative struggle around COVID-19 might affect power shift dynamics and world order. An underlying assumption is that states craft strategic narratives in attempts to gain international support for their understandings of reality. This article evaluates such claims taking a mixed-methods approach. It analyzes American and Chinese strategic narratives about the pandemic, and their global diffusion and resonance in regional states that are important to the U.S.-led world order: Australia, India, South Korea, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. While the article confirms that strategic narratives remain a highly popular policy instrument, it argues that their efficacy appears limited. Overall, the five states in question either ignored the Sino-American narrative power battle by disseminating their own strategic narratives, or they engaged in “narrative hedging.” Moreover, even China’s narrative entrepreneurship was enabled and constrained by pre-existing master narratives integral to the current U.S.-led world order.
最近的研究探讨了中美围绕新冠肺炎的叙事斗争如何影响权力转移动态和世界秩序。一个潜在的假设是,国家精心制作战略叙事,试图为其对现实的理解获得国际支持。本文采用混合方法的方法来评估此类声明。它分析了美国和中国对疫情的战略叙述,以及它们在全球的扩散和在对美国领导的世界秩序至关重要的地区国家(澳大利亚、印度、韩国、土耳其和英国)的共鸣。虽然这篇文章证实,战略叙事仍然是一种非常受欢迎的政策工具,但它认为,它们的功效似乎有限。总体而言,这五个国家要么通过传播自己的战略叙事来忽视中美叙事权力之争,要么进行“叙事对冲”。此外,即使是中国的叙事企业家精神,也受到当前美国领导的世界秩序中不可或缺的既有的主流叙事的推动和制约。
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引用次数: 20
Global Britain in the grey zone: Between stagecraft and statecraft 灰色地带的全球英国:舞台艺术和治国方略之间
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-09-27 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1980984
Vladimir Rauta, S. Monaghan
ABSTRACT The United Kingdom’s integrated defense and security review put “grey zone” or “hybrid” challenges at the center of national security and defense strategy. The United Kingdom is not alone: The security and defense policies of NATO, the European Union, and several other countries (including the United States, France, Germany, and Australia) have taken a hybrid-turn in recent years. This article attempts to move the hybrid debate toward more fertile ground for international policymakers and scholars by advocating a simple distinction between threats and warfare. The United Kingdom’s attempts to grapple with its own hybrid policy offer a national case study in closing the gap between rhetoric and practice, or stagecraft and statecraft, before an avenue of moving forward is proposed—informally, through a series of questions, puzzles, and lessons from the British experience—to help international policy and research communities align their efforts to address their own stagecraft-statecraft dichotomies.
摘要英国的综合国防和安全审查将“灰色地带”或“混合”挑战置于国家安全和国防战略的中心。英国并不孤单:北约、欧盟和其他几个国家(包括美国、法国、德国和澳大利亚)的安全和国防政策近年来出现了混合性转变。本文试图通过提倡简单区分威胁和战争,将混合辩论推向国际决策者和学者的沃土。英国试图解决自己的混合政策,在提出前进的途径之前,通过一系列问题、谜题、,以及从英国经验中吸取的教训——帮助国际政策和研究界协调努力,解决他们自己的舞台艺术治国方略的二分法。
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引用次数: 5
Not by NPT alone: The future of the global nuclear order 不仅仅是《不扩散条约》:全球核秩序的未来
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-09-27 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1983243
J. Knopf
ABSTRACT The nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) constitutes just one component of broader arrangements that provide global nuclear governance. In recent decades, the other props in the global nuclear order beyond its nonproliferation elements have been eroding, thereby putting more weight on the contributions of the NPT and other aspects of the nonproliferation regime. Unfortunately, recent progress in building up the NPT-based nonproliferation regime seems also to have halted. This article outlines the elements of the global nuclear order and identifies signs of erosion in that order. It discusses whether a greater commitment to nuclear disarmament might help counter that erosion and highlights the underlying cognitive dimension of efforts to avoid nuclear war.
摘要《不扩散核武器条约》只是提供全球核治理的更广泛安排的一个组成部分。近几十年来,全球核秩序中除不扩散因素外的其他支柱一直在削弱,从而更加重视《不扩散条约》和不扩散制度其他方面的贡献。不幸的是,最近在建立以《不扩散条约》为基础的不扩散制度方面的进展似乎也已经停止。本文概述了全球核秩序的要素,并确定了该秩序受到侵蚀的迹象。它讨论了对核裁军的更大承诺是否有助于对抗这种侵蚀,并强调了避免核战争努力的潜在认知层面。
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引用次数: 6
A theory of nuclear disarmament: Cases, analogies, and the role of the non-proliferation regime 核裁军理论:案例、类比和不扩散制度的作用
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-09-17 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1978159
Kjølv Egeland
ABSTRACT What might prompt a nuclear-armed state to give up its arsenal? Nuclear disarmament has provided a nominally shared goal for virtually all the world’s states for decades, yet surprisingly little effort has been devoted to systematically theorizing its drivers. This article aims to begin filling this void. I proceed in three steps. First, I discuss the conceptual, material, and ideational features of renunciation to arrive at a rudimentary understanding of what, fundamentally, nuclear disarmament as a political process involves. Second, I scope out the empirical evidence on which a general theory of nuclear renunciation might be based. Third, synthesizing the dominant explanations for the cases discussed in the second part, I outline a basic account of nuclear relinquishment and discuss the compatibility of this account with common assumptions about disarmament practice. I conclude that the best evidence available suggests that adversarial politics and stigmatization are necessary conditions for renunciation.
什么可能促使一个拥有核武器的国家放弃其核武库?几十年来,核裁军为世界上几乎所有国家提供了一个名义上的共同目标,但令人惊讶的是,很少有人致力于系统地将其驱动因素理论化。本文旨在填补这一空白。我分三步进行。首先,我将讨论放弃的概念、材料和观念特征,以初步了解核裁军作为一个政治进程所涉及的基本内容。其次,我列举了一些经验证据,这些证据可以作为放弃核武器的一般理论的基础。第三,综合第二部分中讨论的案例的主要解释,我概述了放弃核武器的基本说明,并讨论了这种说明与裁军实践的共同假设的兼容性。我的结论是,现有的最佳证据表明,敌对的政治和污名化是放弃的必要条件。
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引用次数: 7
NPT as an antifragile system: How contestation improves the nonproliferation regime 《不扩散核武器条约》作为一个反脆弱的体系:争论如何改善不扩散制度
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-09-16 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1978761
Michal Smetana, J. O’Mahoney
ABSTRACT We introduce “antifragility” as a conceptual framework to understand the impact of occasional violations of regime norms on the health of respective regimes. Contrary to the prevailing understanding of norm violation as a strictly negative phenomenon that leaves regimes damaged, we show that normative deviance is, under certain conditions, a stressor that helps predominantly antifragile systems learn, improve, and adapt to changes in both internal and external environments. We apply this conceptual framework to the case of the NPT regime and the prominent violations of its nonproliferation norms by India in the 1970s (as a “contestation from outside”) and Iraq in the 1990s (as a “contestation from within”). Our findings question the prevailing catastrophizing narrative about the strictly negative impact of norm violations on regime stability and contribute to contemporary scholarly debates about norm dynamics within the NPT.
我们引入“反脆弱性”作为一个概念框架,以理解偶尔违反政权规范对各自政权健康的影响。与普遍认为违反规范是一种会破坏制度的消极现象相反,我们表明,在某些条件下,规范偏差是一种压力源,有助于主要的反脆弱系统学习、改进和适应内部和外部环境的变化。我们将这一概念框架应用于《不扩散核武器条约》制度的案例,以及20世纪70年代印度(作为“来自外部的争论”)和90年代伊拉克(作为“来自内部的争论”)对其不扩散准则的明显违反。我们的研究结果质疑了普遍存在的关于违反规范对政权稳定产生严格负面影响的灾难性叙述,并有助于当代关于《不扩散核武器条约》内规范动态的学术辩论。
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引用次数: 11
Emerging technology and nuclear security: What does the wisdom of the crowd tell us? 新兴技术与核安全:大众智慧告诉我们什么?
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1928963
M. Onderco, Madeline Zutt
ABSTRACT What is the impact of emerging technologies on nuclear security and disarmament? Current rapid technological advances are taking place against the backdrop of increased investments in modernizing nuclear arsenals, rising tensions among great powers, and increased pressure on nuclear arms control agreements. Yet, the anticipated net effect of these emerging technologies on the nuclear landscape remains ambiguous. Through a survey with 85 experts and a series of elite interviews with 14 decision-makers, this article contends that while emerging technologies destabilize nuclear deterrence by increasing nuclear risk, they can also create fresh opportunities for nuclear disarmament. Given that new technologies are changing the nature of nuclear threats, this article also argues that we need to change the way we think about arms control if we want to respond effectively to the threats posed by emerging technologies.
新兴技术对核安全和裁军有何影响?当前的快速技术进步是在对核武库现代化的投资增加、大国之间的紧张局势加剧以及对核军备控制协议的压力增加的背景下发生的。然而,这些新兴技术对核能前景的预期净影响仍然模糊不清。通过对85名专家的调查和对14名决策者的一系列精英访谈,本文认为,虽然新兴技术通过增加核风险来破坏核威慑的稳定,但它们也可以为核裁军创造新的机会。鉴于新技术正在改变核威胁的性质,本文还认为,如果我们想要有效应对新兴技术构成的威胁,我们需要改变对军备控制的看法。
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引用次数: 5
India’s recognition as a nuclear power: A case of strategic cooptation 印度被承认为核大国:一个战略合作案例
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1920117
P. Frankenbach, Andreas Kruck, Bernhard Zangl
ABSTRACT In the mid-2000s, India turned from a nuclear pariah of the international community into a de facto recognized nuclear power. Why and how did this status elevation come about? Realist, liberal, and constructivist perspectives point to important motivations but fail to elucidate the process of India’s (re-)integration. Our strategic cooptation argument conceives of India’s status upgrade as an exchange of institutional privileges for institutional support. To stabilize the nuclear non-proliferation regime, the United States and other nuclear powers offered India the privilege of being recognized as nuclear power—and of taking part in international nuclear trade—in return for India’s promise to provide additional support to the non-proliferation regime. This deal materialized because India was able and willing to provide the needed support and because the institutional setting provided favorable conditions for circumventing and overcoming third-party resistance. We thus establish “strategic cooptation” as a mode of adapting international security institutions.
摘要2000年代中期,印度从国际社会的核贱民变成了事实上公认的核大国。为什么以及如何实现这种地位提升?现实主义、自由主义和建构主义的观点指出了重要的动机,但未能阐明印度(重新)一体化的过程。我们的战略合作论点将印度的地位提升视为制度特权与制度支持的交换。为了稳定核不扩散制度,美国和其他核大国向印度提供了被承认为核大国并参与国际核贸易的特权,以换取印度承诺为不扩散制度提供更多支持。这项协议之所以得以实现,是因为印度能够并愿意提供所需的支持,也是因为体制环境为规避和克服第三方阻力提供了有利条件。因此,我们将“战略合作”确立为调整国际安全机构的一种模式。
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引用次数: 5
Redefining deterrence in cyberspace: Private sector contribution to national strategies of cyber deterrence 重新定义网络空间威慑:私营部门对国家网络威慑战略的贡献
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2021.1882812
Eugenio Lilli
ABSTRACT This article explores the nature and the desirability of private sector contribution to national strategies of cyber deterrence. The article starts by developing a variation of the concept of cyber deterrence, called RCDC deterrence, which is simultaneously restrictive, comprehensive, dynamic, and complemental. Second, it applies RCDC deterrence to identify and analyze specific areas of cyber deterrence that can benefit the most from private sector contribution. Third, the article cautions about the potential security, legal, and moral issues that could arise from such private contributions. Instead of offering definitive answers on these complex issues, the article ends by suggesting avenues for further research. The ultimate objective is to assist decision-makers in designing policies and regulations aimed at maximizing the benefits of public–private cooperation in cyber deterrence while mitigating its potential downsides.
本文探讨了私营部门对国家网络威慑战略贡献的性质和可取性。本文首先发展了网络威慑概念的一种变体,称为RCDC威慑,它同时具有限制性、综合性、动态性和互补性。其次,它应用RCDC威慑来识别和分析网络威慑的具体领域,这些领域可以从私营部门的贡献中获益最多。第三,文章对此类私人捐款可能引发的潜在安全、法律和道德问题提出了警告。文章没有对这些复杂的问题给出明确的答案,而是提出了进一步研究的途径。最终目标是协助决策者制定政策和法规,以最大限度地提高公私合作在网络威慑中的效益,同时减少其潜在的负面影响。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
Contemporary Security Policy
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