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The Geopolitics of the Rare-Metals Race 稀有金属种族的地缘政治
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2022.2059146
Guillame Pitron
In 2010, a team of Pentagon officials and American geologists uncovered Afghanistan’s best kept secret: a plethora of mining resources such as lithium, copper, cobalt—including 1.4 million metric tons of rare-earth elements, estimated to be worth more than $1 trillion, all of them essential to modern industry. After this development, Afghanistan, according to The New York Times, rapidly became heralded as a country which could “be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world.” More than a decade later, however, US forces filing out of Afghanistan were leaving these resources untapped, attracting the interest of neighboring nations. In July 2021, China and the Taliban agreed on a pact of non-aggression, ensuring that the former will not meddle in Afghan political affairs, and that the latter will not use its territory as a base for Uyghur separatists. The pact substantiates what The Global Times, a newspaper with close ties to the Chinese Communist Party, reported: “huge opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries, especially in sectors such as utilities and mining.” China expects to soon begin the extraction of copper—an essential resource for manufacturing electric cars—from the Mes Aynak mine in the Logar province, for which the Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC), one of the
2010年,一个由五角大楼官员和美国地质学家组成的小组发现了阿富汗保守得最好的秘密:大量的矿产资源,如锂、铜、钴,包括140万吨稀土元素,估计价值超过1万亿美元,所有这些都是现代工业所必需的。据《纽约时报》(New York Times)报道,在这一发展之后,阿富汗迅速被誉为一个可以“转变为世界上最重要的采矿中心之一”的国家。然而,十多年后,美国军队从阿富汗撤出,这些资源没有得到开发,引起了邻国的兴趣。2021年7月,中国与塔利班达成互不侵犯条约,确保中国不干涉阿富汗政治事务,塔利班不利用其领土作为维吾尔分裂分子的基地。该协议证实了与中国共产党关系密切的报纸《环球时报》所报道的:“两国之间互利合作的巨大机遇,特别是在公用事业和采矿等领域。”中国预计不久将开始从洛加尔省的Mes Aynak矿开采铜——制造电动汽车的重要资源,中国冶金集团公司(MCC)是该矿的主要开采方之一
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引用次数: 4
Legal, but Lethal: The Law of Armed Conflict and US Nuclear Strategy 合法但致命:武装冲突法与美国核战略
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2022.2054121
S. Fetter, Charles L. Glaser
the logical use of nuclear weapons in MAD is coercive — threatening costs via attacks against cities, populations, and/or centers of economic activity.
在MAD中使用核武器的逻辑是强制性的——通过攻击城市、人口和/或经济活动中心来威胁成本。
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引用次数: 1
Taking US Foreign Policy for the Middle Class Seriously 认真对待美国的中产阶级外交政策
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2022.2059143
Andrew J Gawthorpe
Over the previous decade, a bipartisan consensus has emerged on the importance of placing the interests of the middle class near the center of American foreign policy. Of course, lamentations concerning the health of the American middle class and presidential programs to revitalize it have been a staple of postwar history, particularly during economic downturns. But only over this previous decade have they been tied so closely to foreign policy concerns—something which has happened in otherwise very dissimilar administrations. The first time the American middle class was mentioned in a US National Security Strategy (NSS) document was in 2015, when Barack Obama pledged to “strengthen the middle class” by “opening markets and leveling the playing field for American workers and businesses abroad.” In a similar formulation, Donald Trump’s 2017 NSS promised to be one which “creates middle-class jobs” through “rebuilding economic strength at home and preserving a fair and reciprocal international economic system.” The Biden administration has taken this line of thought further than either of its predecessors, with the new president promising that he will run a “foreign
在过去的十年里,两党就将中产阶级的利益置于美国外交政策中心附近的重要性达成了共识。当然,对美国中产阶级健康状况的哀叹和振兴中产阶级的总统计划一直是战后历史的主要内容,尤其是在经济衰退期间。但只有在过去的十年里,他们才与外交政策问题如此紧密地联系在一起——这在其他非常不同的政府中也发生过。美国国家安全战略(NSS)文件首次提到美国中产阶级是在2015年,当时巴拉克·奥巴马承诺通过“开放市场,为美国工人和海外企业创造公平的竞争环境”来“加强中产阶级”,唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的2017年全国社保承诺将通过“重建国内经济实力和维护公平互惠的国际经济体系”来“创造中产阶级就业机会”。拜登政府比任何一位前任都更进一步,新总统承诺他将管理一个“外国”
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引用次数: 2
The Untold Victims of China’s Trade Policies 中国贸易政策的不为人知受害者
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2022.2059144
Kristen Hopewell
China’s trade policies have come under intense scrutiny amid the ongoing US-China trade war. Yet with attention focused on trade conflict between the United States and China, the wider effects of China’s trade policies are being largely ignored. The debate about China’s trading practices has been driven primarily by the United States and other advanced economies such as the EU and Japan. These countries have complained that China is using state subsidies and other unfair trading practices to give its firms and industries an edge in global markets and tilt the playing field in its favor. From steel to semiconductors, attention has overwhelmingly focused on the policies that China is using to promote the expansion of its manufacturing and high-tech industries including heavy subsidies, forced technology transfer, and intellectual property violations. In these sectors, China’s policies pose a serious competitive threat to the US and other advanced-industrialized states. What has been widely overlooked, however, is that China is also making use of highly trade-distorting policies in other sectors that are of significant concern to developing countries.WhileChina is primarily seen as amanufacturing powerhouse, it has also emerged as a major power in global agriculture markets and the world’s dominant fishing power. What is more, over the last decade, China has become the world’s largest subsidizer of both agriculture and fisheries. Given China’s aggregate economic might and newfound centrality in both global agriculture and fisheries, the effects of its trade policies are felt worldwide. Likewise, since many
在持续的中美贸易战中,中国的贸易政策受到了密切关注。然而,随着人们的注意力集中在中美之间的贸易冲突上,中国贸易政策的广泛影响在很大程度上被忽视了。有关中国贸易行为的辩论主要是由美国和欧盟、日本等其他发达经济体推动的。这些国家抱怨说,中国正在利用国家补贴和其他不公平的贸易做法,使其企业和行业在全球市场上占据优势,并使竞争环境向有利于自己的方向倾斜。从钢铁到半导体,人们的注意力主要集中在中国为促进其制造业和高科技产业扩张而采取的政策上,包括高额补贴、强制技术转让和侵犯知识产权。在这些领域,中国的政策对美国和其他发达工业化国家构成了严重的竞争威胁。然而,人们普遍忽视的是,中国还在其他行业使用严重扭曲贸易的政策,而这些行业是发展中国家非常关注的。虽然中国主要被视为制造业强国,但它也已成为全球农业市场的主要力量,以及世界上占主导地位的渔业大国。更重要的是,在过去十年中,中国已成为世界上最大的农业和渔业补贴国。鉴于中国的整体经济实力以及在全球农业和渔业领域新获得的中心地位,其贸易政策的影响在全世界都能感受到。同样地,由于许多
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引用次数: 0
Discolored Revolutions: Information Warfare in Russia’s Grand Strategy 褪色的革命:俄罗斯大战略中的信息战
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2022.2057113
Ben Sohl
ISSN: (Print) (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rwaq20 Discolored Revolutions: Information Warfare in Russia’s Grand Strategy Ben Sohl To cite this article: Ben Sohl (2022) Discolored Revolutions: Information Warfare in Russia’s Grand Strategy, The Washington Quarterly, 45:1, 97-111, DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2022.2057113 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2022.2057113
ISSN:(印刷版)(在线)期刊主页:https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rwaq20变色革命:俄罗斯大战略中的信息战Ben Sohl引用本文:Ben Sohl(2022)变色革命:俄大战略中信息战,《华盛顿季刊》,45:1,97-111,DOI:10.1080/016360X.2022.2057113链接至本文:https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2022.2057113
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引用次数: 1
America's Role in a Post-American Middle East 美国在后美国时代中东的作用
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2022.2058185
D. D. Kaye
After decades of wars in the Middle East, growing great power competition, and changing priorities at home, there is much uncertainty about America’s place in the world today. Russia’s brazen invasion of Ukraine has further shaken up debates over America’s global priorities and purpose, including in the Middle East. On one hand, a consensus has emerged across the American political spectrum that after costly investments with little discernable payoff, the United States should do less in the Middle East and more to confront a rising China. President Obama aspired to “pivot to Asia” but new terrorism threats like the Islamic State sidetracked him along the way. Now, by some accounts, Biden is finally completing the pivot, even if the Ukraine war is shifting US attention back to Europe and Russia. On the other hand, tens of thousands of US forces remain in the Middle East, increasingly vulnerable to attacks by Iran and Iranianaligned nonstate actors. All the while, American military strikes against Iranian-aligned groups and major US arms sales to regional partners continue apace. The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 added to this policy confusion. Was Afghanistan the opening salvo foreshadowing a reduced American presence in the Middle East, to be followed by more withdrawals as advocated by a “restraint” camp in Washington? Or was it a unique set of circumstances, linked to Biden’s previous convictions and assessments of the
在经历了数十年的中东战争、日益激烈的大国竞争和国内事务重心的变化之后,美国在当今世界的地位存在很多不确定性。俄罗斯悍然入侵乌克兰,进一步激起了有关美国在全球(包括中东)的优先事项和目的的争论。一方面,美国政界已经形成了一种共识,即在进行了代价高昂却收效甚微的投资之后,美国应该在中东少做些事情,多做些事情来对抗崛起的中国。奥巴马总统渴望“重返亚洲”,但伊斯兰国(Islamic State)等新的恐怖主义威胁阻碍了他的脚步。现在,根据一些说法,拜登终于完成了重心转移,尽管乌克兰战争正在将美国的注意力转移回欧洲和俄罗斯。另一方面,数以万计的美军仍留在中东,越来越容易受到伊朗和与伊朗有关的非国家行为体的袭击。与此同时,美国对与伊朗结盟的组织的军事打击以及美国对地区伙伴的主要武器销售仍在迅速进行。2021年夏天美国从阿富汗撤军加剧了这种政策混乱。阿富汗战争是否预示着美国将减少在中东的存在,然后按照华盛顿“克制”阵营的主张,进一步撤军?或者这是一组独特的情况,与拜登之前的定罪和对白宫的评估有关
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引用次数: 1
Cyber Offense and a Changing Strategic Paradigm 网络攻击和不断变化的战略范式
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2022.2054123
L. Spector
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引用次数: 0
After Putin: Lessons from Autocratic Leadership Transitions 普京之后:专制领导过渡的教训
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2022.2057112
Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Erica Frantz
The Biden administration came into office seeking to create a stable and predictable relationship with Russia. Determined to devote more time and attention to China,Washington sought to reduce tensions with Putin’s Russia in order to avoid confrontation that might derail the administration’s agenda. Yet despite Washington’s approach, relations with Russia have turned out to be anything but stable and predictable. On February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s war of choice catalyzed a massive shift in international perceptions of Putin and a series of responses—ranging from punishing sanctions on Russia’s financial sector to private sector steps to curtail business operations inside the country—that have fundamentally altered relations with Russia. It is now impossible to imagine that there could be any substantive improvement in USRussia relations while Putin remains in power. If Washington cannot expect confrontation between the United States and Russia to abate so long as Putin is at the helm, the questions that naturally follow are: how much longer will Putin be in office, and what are the prospects that US-Russia relations could be different under a future Russian leader? Although Putin’s attack on Ukraine has increased the challenges he faces at home, he may very well be able to weather the backlash. History is rife with embattled autocrats who successfully maintained power despite domestic economic challenges and significant opposition. High and rising levels of repression, tight
拜登政府上任时寻求与俄罗斯建立稳定和可预测的关系。华盛顿决心将更多的时间和注意力放在中国身上,试图缓解与普京领导的俄罗斯的紧张关系,以避免可能破坏政府议程的对抗。然而,尽管华盛顿采取了这种做法,但与俄罗斯的关系却绝非稳定和可预测。2022年2月24日,弗拉基米尔·普京对乌克兰发动全面入侵。普京的选择之战引发了国际社会对普京看法的巨大转变,以及一系列从根本上改变了与俄罗斯关系的回应——从对俄罗斯金融部门的惩罚性制裁到私营部门削减国内商业运营的措施。现在无法想象,在普京继续执政的情况下,美俄关系会有任何实质性的改善。如果华盛顿不能指望只要普京掌权,美国和俄罗斯之间的对抗就会减弱,那么随之而来的问题自然是:普京还能执政多久,在未来的俄罗斯领导人领导下,美俄关系会有什么不同?尽管普京对乌克兰的攻击增加了他在国内面临的挑战,但他很可能能够经受住反弹。历史上充斥着四面楚歌的独裁者,他们不顾国内经济挑战和强烈反对,成功地维持了权力。镇压程度高且不断上升
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引用次数: 0
The Case Against Nuclear Sharing in East Asia 东亚反对核共享案
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.2018793
J. Byun, Do Young Lee
As the rise of Chinese power and North Korea’s nuclear development alter East Asia’s strategic landscape, American foreign policy analysts continue to look for innovative ways to bolster the security position of US allies in the region. MIT political scientists Eric Heginbotham and Richard Samuels highlight one potential option in a recent article in The Washington Quarterly, arguing that the United States should revitalize its alliances with Japan and South Korea by exploring “the wartime sharing of nuclear weapons,” which might involve “modifying hardware (e.g., certifying allied F-35s for nuclear delivery), acquiring new systems, and training air or naval crews in tactical nuclear strikes and command and control.” Similar proposals are not difficult to encounter in Washington’s policy community. One analysis calls for the “custodial sharing of nonstrategic nuclear capabilities during times of crisis with select Asia-Pacific partners, specifically Japan and the Republic of Korea [ROK].” Likewise, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Brad Roberts writes that “[a] more NATO-like nuclear umbrella makes good sense in Northeast Asia today.” Such arrangements “could be replicated in South Korea,” for example, “with US nuclear weapons permanently deployed there along with dual-capable fighter-bombers that would be flown by pilots from both countries.”
随着中国实力的崛起和朝鲜的核发展改变了东亚的战略格局,美国外交政策分析人士继续寻找创新的方法来加强美国在该地区盟友的安全地位。麻省理工学院政治学家埃里克·赫金博瑟姆和理查德·塞缪尔斯在《华盛顿季刊》最近的一篇文章中强调了一个潜在的选择,他们认为美国应该通过探索“战时共享核武器”来重振与日本和韩国的联盟,这可能涉及“修改硬件(例如,认证盟军的f -35用于核投送),获取新系统,以及训练空军或海军人员进行战术核打击和指挥控制”。类似的提议在华盛顿的政策圈中并不难遇到。一项分析呼吁“在危机时期与选定的亚太伙伴,特别是日本和韩国,共同保管非战略核能力”。同样,前国防部副助理部长布拉德·罗伯茨(Brad Roberts)写道,“一个更像北约(nato)的核保护伞在今天的东北亚是很有意义的。”这样的安排“可以在韩国复制”,例如,“美国在那里永久部署核武器,以及由两国飞行员驾驶的双功能战斗轰炸机。”
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引用次数: 1
A Model Alliance? The Strategic Logic of US-Australia Cooperation 模范联盟?美澳合作的战略逻辑
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.2017645
A. Carr
In September 2021, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States captured the world’s attention with a technology and capability-sharing partnership known as AUKUS. For many, this was yet another example of the closeness of the alliance between the United States and Australia, which was initially formalized in the 1951 Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (ANZUS), from which New Zealand was suspended in 1986. Yet, however strong the public narrative seems, American and Australian officials have expressed concern and confusion about each other’s behavior in recent years, and well-connected scholars have warned of “complacency” and “expectation gaps” while identifying divergences in the interests, behavior, and outlook of the United States and Australia. During the 2010s, Australia regularly acted in ways that belied its loyal ally identity. Canberra consistently rejected US pressure to conduct Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) in the South China Sea. It ignored direct US pressure and joined China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), agreed to a Free Trade Agreement with Beijing, and signed an MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) to support the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the Indo-Pacific. Canberra was privately skeptical about the US commitment to its region under presidents Barack Obama as well as Joe Biden, and explicitly
2021年9月,澳大利亚、英国和美国建立了名为AUKUS的技术和能力共享伙伴关系,引起了全世界的关注。对许多人来说,这是美国和澳大利亚之间紧密联盟的又一个例子,这种联盟最初是在1951年的《澳大利亚、新西兰、美国安全条约》中正式确立的,新西兰于1986年被暂停加入该条约。然而,无论公共叙事看起来多么强烈,美国和澳大利亚官员近年来都对彼此的行为表示了担忧和困惑,关系密切的学者在指出美国和澳大利亚在利益、行为和前景上的分歧时,警告了“自满”和“期望差距”。在2010年代,澳大利亚经常表现出与其忠诚盟友身份不符的行为。堪培拉一直拒绝美国在南中国海进行自由航行行动(FONOPS)的压力。它不顾美国的直接压力,加入了中国的亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB),与北京达成了一项自由贸易协定,并签署了一份谅解备忘录(MOU),以支持印度太平洋地区的“一带一路”倡议(BRI)。堪培拉私下对巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)和乔•拜登(Joe Biden)领导下的美国对该地区的承诺持怀疑态度,而且态度明确
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引用次数: 3
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