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Revitalizing Transatlantic Relations: NATO 2030 and Beyond 振兴跨大西洋关系:北约2030年及以后
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1896133
S. Moller, S. Rynning
As the United States and the world begins to adjust to a Biden presidency, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) once again finds itself at a crossroads. Diplomats and transatlantic supporters on both sides of the Atlantic collectively expelled a sigh of relief last November that a second Trump term —which many feared might spell the end of the 72-year-old alliance—had not come to pass. However, the mood is far from celebratory in either Washington or European capitals because all parties understand that, to steer clear of irrelevancy and remain “fit for purpose,”NATO needs renewal—the question is how? If the allies are not careful, domestic contentions and international disputes over trade and technology regulation could consume their political energy, breaking the promise of transatlantic renewal before it has even begun. To stave off this dim prospect, NATO is embarking on a strategy of transatlantic renewal, the centerpiece of which will be a new Strategic Concept—its first in a decade. NATO’s current Strategic Concept dates back to 2010 and reflects NATO’s thinking on how to cope with the divisive nature of the War on Terror, and it is inadequate for a changed world of great power rivalry. A new Strategic Concept has long been on the agenda in the corridors of NATO diplomacy, but no one dared open this Pandora’s Box during the Trump presidency. Following the November 2020 US presidential elections, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stepped forward to sketch a calendar for strategic change: a mandate for a Strategic Concept review from the NATO heads of
随着美国和世界开始适应拜登的总统任期,北大西洋公约组织(NATO)再次发现自己处于十字路口。去年11月,大西洋两岸的外交官和跨大西洋支持者集体松了一口气,因为特朗普的第二个任期——许多人担心这可能意味着长达72年的联盟的终结——没有成为现实。然而,无论是在华盛顿还是在欧洲各国首都,气氛都远未达到庆祝的程度,因为各方都明白,为了避免无关紧要并保持“适合目的”,北约需要更新——问题是如何更新?如果盟国不小心,国内争端和国际贸易和技术监管争端可能会消耗它们的政治能量,使跨大西洋复兴的承诺在开始之前就破灭。为了避免这种暗淡的前景,北约正在着手实施一项跨大西洋复兴战略,其核心将是一个新的战略概念——这是十年来的第一次。北约目前的战略概念可以追溯到2010年,反映了北约对如何应对反恐战争分裂性质的思考,它不足以适应大国竞争的变化世界。北约外交走廊的议程上早就提着一个新的战略概念,但在特朗普总统任期内,没有人敢打开这个潘多拉的盒子。在2020年11月美国总统大选之后,北约秘书长延斯·斯托尔滕贝格(Jens Stoltenberg)挺身而出,为战略变革制定了时间表:北约成员国领导人授权对战略概念进行审查
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引用次数: 4
Democratic Deterrence: How to Dissuade Hybrid Interference 民主威慑:如何劝阻混合干扰
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1893027
M. Wigell
Western democracy is being attacked like never before, but not through overhyped "hybrid warfare " It is in reality threatened more acutely by hybrid interference, attacks that are often subtle, manipulating for cover the very same liberal democratic values that the attack is designed to subvert The cornerstones of Western democracy--state restraint, pluralism, free media, and economic openness--provide openings for authoritarian actors to interfere in democratic society through a host of covert, non-military means calibrated to undermine their internal cohesion and accelerate political polarization For instance, disinformation campaigns have become increasingly evident since the 2016 US elections and have stepped up in the midst of the COVID 19 crisis Financial support is also being channeled to radical political parties and movements to accelerate centrifugal forces within and among Western democracies Part of this toolbox involves exploiting the economic openness of Western democracies to capture strategic sectors of the economy--such as critical infrastructure, finance, and media--by which these authoritarian actors can attempt to destabilize Western democracies and purposefully corrupt them
西方民主正受到前所未有的攻击,但不是通过过度炒作的“混合战争”,它实际上受到混合干涉的更严重威胁,这些攻击往往是微妙的,操纵着同样的自由民主价值观,这些价值观旨在颠覆西方民主的基石——国家约束、多元化、自由媒体、和经济开放——为专制行为者提供了通过一系列隐蔽的非军事手段干预民主社会的机会,这些手段旨在破坏民主社会的内部凝聚力,加速政治两极分化。自2016年美国大选以来,虚假信息运动变得越来越明显,并在COVID - 19危机期间有所加强。财政支持也被输送给激进政党和运动,以加速西方民主国家内部和之间的离心力。这个工具箱的一部分涉及利用西方民主国家的经济开放来占领经济的战略部门,如关键基础设施、金融、以及媒体——这些专制行为者可以借此试图破坏西方民主国家的稳定,并有目的地腐败它们
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引用次数: 10
The Ibn Khaldûn Trap and Great Power Competition with China 伊本·卡丹陷阱与大国对华竞争
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1893022
Carla Norrlöf
The return of great power rivalry has been the defining feature of the 21st century. Since the beginning of the new millennium, China and Russia have openly defied the United States and upset the stability of the liberal international order. Both China and Russia share physical and material attributes possessed by the United States that are traditionally required for great power status: land mass, a sea portal, a large population, and technology to field and develop a competitive military capability. Most scholars and policymakers agree that China presents the largest challenge to US interests and the US-led liberal international order. Economic and military growth in China has been astounding, surpassing Russian expansion. China’s outward extension is not primarily resource-based as is Russia’s but multidimensional, posing a structural challenge to US military and economic dominance. Much ink has been spilled over the nature of US-China rivalry and whether the two great powers are destined for war. Structural factors figure prominently when predicting US-China relations. A famous deadly Greek trap describes how the fear of a hegemonic power sparks catastrophic war with a rising power. In the History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides writes, “What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta.” Thucydides’ statement has been widely adopted as a metaphor for the dangers associated with great-power transition. Both A.F.K. Organski’s power transition theory and Robert Gilpin’s realism see great-power wars as
大国竞争的回归是21世纪的决定性特征。新千年以来,中国和俄罗斯公然挑衅美国,破坏了自由国际秩序的稳定。中国和俄罗斯都拥有美国传统上大国地位所需的物理和物质属性:陆地、海上门户、大量人口以及部署和发展有竞争力的军事能力的技术。大多数学者和政策制定者一致认为,中国对美国利益和美国领导的自由国际秩序构成了最大挑战。中国的经济和军事增长令人震惊,超过了俄罗斯的扩张。中国的对外扩张不像俄罗斯那样主要是基于资源的,而是多层面的,这对美国的军事和经济主导地位构成了结构性挑战。关于美中竞争的性质以及这两个大国是否注定要开战,人们已经撒下了很多墨水。在预测美中关系时,结构性因素占据了突出位置。希腊一个著名的致命陷阱描述了对霸权的恐惧如何引发与崛起大国的灾难性战争。修昔底德在《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》中写道:“使战争不可避免的是雅典力量的增长以及由此在斯巴达引发的恐惧。”。奥甘斯基的权力转移理论和罗伯特·吉尔平的现实主义都将大国战争视为
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引用次数: 3
US-China Crossroads Ahead: Perils and Opportunities for Biden 美中十字路口:拜登的危险与机遇
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1894723
Xiangfeng Yang
No amount of sugarcoating can downplay the current depth and scope of stress in Sino-US relations. Clashes routinely run the gamut between Beijing’s handling of Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Taiwan; its...
再多的粉饰也不能低估当前中美关系压力的深度和范围。冲突通常涉及北京对新疆、香港和台湾的处理;它的
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引用次数: 3
The COVID-19 Effect: US-China Narratives and Realities 新冠肺炎效应:中美叙事与现实
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1893513
Min Ye
The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated geopolitical tensions between the United States and China while restricting policy dialogues, amplifying extreme sentiments, and sidestepping rational observations The outcomes are extremist and divided narratives, emphasizing China's triumphalism on one hand and inherent weaknesses on the other Under such narratives, China's policy voices and actions in combatting the pandemic and economic fallout were under-studied and discounted, with harmful impacts on the US response to the virus, economic recession, and shifting globalization This paper studies China's official statements, research reports, and scholarly opinion networks in 2020 and finds that, though there were various policy discussions, the general argument was for expanding China's globalism during and after the pandemic Meanwhile, China's policy actors--national agencies, local governments, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs)--strive to continue globalization and adapt to new realities after COVID-19 This article first discusses the effect of COVID-19 on US-China relations, focusing on the gap between narratives and realities It then synthesizes the US narratives on China in 2020, highlighting their extreme and divided nature
新冠肺炎疫情加剧了中美地缘政治紧张局势,限制了政策对话,放大了极端情绪,回避了理性观察,结果是极端主义和分裂的叙述,一方面强调中国的必胜信念,另一方面强调中国的内在弱点。在这种叙述下,中国在应对疫情和经济影响方面的政策声音和行动没有得到充分研究和低估。本文研究了2020年中国的官方声明、研究报告和学术意见网络,发现尽管有各种各样的政策讨论,但总体观点是在疫情期间和之后扩大中国的全球主义。本文首先讨论了新冠肺炎疫情对中美关系的影响,重点关注叙事与现实之间的差距,然后综合了2020年美国对中国的叙事,突出了其极端和分裂的本质
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引用次数: 0
Vulnerable US Alliances in Northeast Asia: The Nuclear Implications 脆弱的美国东北亚联盟:核影响
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1894709
Eric Heginbotham, Richard J. Samuels
Despite rising threats and challenges in Northeast Asia, the US commitment to its allies there has become less certain. In part, this is by design. President Trump argued that less categorical signals would encourage US allies to do more, either in their own defense or to support (and finance) forward deployed US forces. Hearing this, Japanese and South Korean (ROK) leaders have been led to consider alternatives to the status quo. They increased defense budgets, a welcome development in Washington, but they also have taken measures that may complicate alliance dynamics, undermine crisis stability, and weaken the broader project of balancing Chinese power. Early in his term, President Biden pledged to improve alliance relations. But confronted with uncertainty, Japan and Korea continue to edge toward offensive systems, including missile forces, which may prove destabilizing in crises. They have also moved away from the rolesand missions-based specialization of military labor that has enhanced alliance efficiencies for decades. The widening discussion of nuclear weapons in both countries is perhaps most striking. While nuclear breakout could strengthen Japanese and South Korean self-defense, it would not necessarily enhance balancing. Indeed, given the
尽管东北亚的威胁和挑战不断增加,但美国对其盟友的承诺变得不那么确定。在某种程度上,这是故意的。特朗普总统认为,不那么明确的信号会鼓励美国盟友做更多的事情,无论是在自己的防御方面,还是支持(和资助)前沿部署的美军。听到这一消息,日本和韩国领导人开始考虑维持现状的替代方案。他们增加了国防预算,这在华盛顿是一个可喜的发展,但他们也采取了可能使联盟动态复杂化、破坏危机稳定、削弱平衡中国力量的更广泛项目的措施。拜登总统在任期初期曾承诺改善联盟关系。但面对不确定性,日本和韩国继续倾向于进攻系统,包括导弹部队,这可能会在危机中破坏稳定。他们还放弃了几十年来提高联盟效率的基于角色和任务的军事劳动专业化。两国日益扩大的核武器讨论可能是最引人注目的。虽然核突破可以加强日本和韩国的自卫,但不一定会加强平衡。事实上,考虑到
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引用次数: 4
A Military Drawdown in Germany? US Force Posture in Europe from Trump to Biden 德国的军事缩编?从特朗普到拜登的美国驻欧洲部队态势
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1894718
Alexander Lanoszka, Luis Simón
The Biden administration has promised to revitalize a transatlantic alliance that has experienced much strain during Donald Trump’s presidency. Trump’s focus on strategic competition with China, equivocal attitude toward Russia, repeated criticisms of NATO and Germany, and insistence that Europeans pay for their own defense have raised questions about the future of US defense strategy in Europe. Nevertheless, his administration in fact committed additional money and troops to deterring Russia from threatening US allies. Amid such confusing signals, one of Trump’s last acts that roiled transatlantic relations was to announce in July 2020 a plan to reduce military personnel stationed in Germany from about 34,500 to 25,000, return some portion of these troops to the United States, regroup someair and commandassets in Italy andBelgium, and reinforce theUSmilitary’s rotational presence in Poland and the Black Sea region. The announcement of these measures stunned European allies, who had not been previously consulted. The Pentagon’s 2020 plan embodied the main themes and contradictions that characterized Trump’s defense strategy in Europe: its net reduction of US forces reflected Europe’s downgraded strategic importance to Washington, partly explained by the need to prioritize Asia and partly by the belief that Europeans must be responsible for their own defense; it punished Germany; and it sought
拜登政府承诺重振在唐纳德·特朗普总统任期内经历了巨大压力的跨大西洋联盟。特朗普对与中国的战略竞争的关注,对俄罗斯的模棱两可的态度,对北约和德国的反复批评,以及坚持让欧洲人为自己的国防买单,都引发了人们对美国在欧洲国防战略未来的质疑。尽管如此,他的政府实际上承诺投入更多的资金和军队来阻止俄罗斯威胁美国盟友。在这些令人困惑的信号中,特朗普搅乱跨大西洋关系的最后行动之一是在2020年7月宣布一项计划,将驻扎在德国的军事人员从约34500人减少到25000人,将其中一部分部队返回美国,重新集结意大利和比利时的一些空军和指挥资产,并加强美国军队在波兰和黑海地区的轮换存在。这些措施的宣布震惊了欧洲盟友,他们此前没有征求过他们的意见。五角大楼的2020年计划体现了特朗普在欧洲防御战略的主要主题和矛盾:其对美军的净削减反映了欧洲对华盛顿的战略重要性降低,部分原因是需要优先考虑亚洲,部分原因在于欧洲人必须对自己的防御负责;它惩罚了德国;它寻求
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引用次数: 2
The Trump Effect: China’s New Thoughts on the United States 特朗普效应:中国对美国的新思考
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1893515
Zuo Xiying
Over the past several decades, the United States adopted a policy of engagement to encourage China to join the US-dominated international system and to shape China’s development direction. Meanwhile, for achieving modernization, China endeavored to integrate into the West-dominated international system. On this point, the United States and China together constructed a grand consensus on “integration-engagement” in bilateral relations. However, after the 2008 global financial crisis, the “integration-engagement” framework began to collapse due to two major factors. The first was a change in China’s foreign policy, which was criticized to be more assertive. China not only began to more openly display its national power on issues related to the Taiwan Strait and the East and South China Seas, but it also demonstrated the scope of its international ambitions through the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The second was that, as a result of China’s strength and foreign policy changes, many American elites began to alter their perception of China around 2015, viewing the engagement policy as a failure and believing that the United States should adjust its China strategy. During Trump’s presidency, the fundamentals of US-China relations changed, and China was clearly defined as a strategic competitor. To compete with China more vigorously, the Trump administration conducted a policy of maximum pressure, hoping to force China to compromise on a series of issues. Theoretically, maximum pressure is a classic strategy of coercive
过去几十年,美国采取接触政策,鼓励中国加入美国主导的国际体系,塑造中国的发展方向。同时,为了实现现代化,中国努力融入西方主导的国际体系。在这一点上,中美两国共同构建了双边关系“融合-接触”的大共识。然而,2008年全球金融危机后,“一体化-接触”框架开始瓦解,主要受两大因素影响。首先是中国外交政策的改变,外界批评中国的外交政策变得更加自信。中国不仅开始在台湾海峡、东海和南海等问题上更加公开地展示其国力,而且还通过建立亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)和“一带一路”倡议(BRI)展示了其国际野心的范围。其次,由于中国的实力和外交政策的变化,许多美国精英在2015年左右开始改变他们对中国的看法,认为接触政策是失败的,认为美国应该调整其中国战略。在特朗普总统任期内,中美关系的基本面发生了变化,中国被明确定义为战略竞争对手。为了更有力地与中国竞争,特朗普政府实施了极限施压政策,希望迫使中国在一系列问题上妥协。理论上,最大压力是一种典型的强制策略
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引用次数: 2
Neo-Primacy and the Pitfalls of US Strategy toward China 新霸主地位与美国对华战略的陷阱
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2020-12-11 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2020.1849993
Joshua R. Shifrinson
Over the last half decade, a bipartisan consensus has emerged in US foreign policy circles calling for sustained competition with China. The ostensible goals of this competition are to protect the ...
过去5年,美国外交政策圈出现了两党共识,呼吁与中国持续竞争。这场竞赛表面上的目标是保护……
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引用次数: 1
Mangling the COVID Crisis: India’s Response to the Pandemic 应对COVID危机:印度对大流行的应对
IF 1.7 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2020.1850005
Š. Ganguly
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引用次数: 3
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