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Radical-Right Surge in a Deinstitutionalised Party System: The 2022 Italian General Election 非制度化政党体系中的极右翼浪潮:2022年意大利大选
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2022.2160088
Alessandro Chiaramonte, Vincenzo Emanuele, N. Maggini, Aldo Paparo
ABSTRACT The 2022 Italian general election marked a new step in the unprecedented instability experienced by the Italian party system over the past 15 years. This article presents and discusses the outcome of the election within the deinstitutionalised Italian party system. The most remarkable results were the unprecedented success of the radical-right FDI (Fratelli d’Italia – Brothers of Italy) led by Giorgia Meloni (who would become the first female prime minister in Italy) and a historic drop in voter turnout. In particular, by employing original individual-level survey data, we investigate the impact of territory on the vote, the individual-level dynamics behind the results, and the overall picture emerging in terms of the Italian party system.
意大利2022年大选标志着意大利政党制度在过去15年前所未有的不稳定中迈出了新的一步。本文提出并讨论了在非制度化的意大利政党制度下的选举结果。最引人注目的结果是由乔治娅·梅洛尼(后来成为意大利首位女总理)领导的极右翼政党FDI (Fratelli d’italia,意为意大利兄弟)取得了前所未有的成功,而投票率也出现了历史性的下降。特别是,通过采用原始的个人层面调查数据,我们调查了领土对投票的影响,结果背后的个人层面动态,以及意大利政党制度的整体情况。
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引用次数: 8
Back to the Post-Fascist Past or Landing in the Populist Radical Right? The Brothers of Italy Between Continuity and Change 回到后法西斯时代还是走向民粹主义极右翼?意大利兄弟在延续与变化之间
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2022.2126247
Leonardo Puleo, Gianluca Piccolino
ABSTRACT Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) is the new rising star of Italian politics. Scholars and pundits briskly categorised it as a (new) populist radical right (PRR) party. Still, FdI’s newness needs to be properly framed. A splinter party of the Popolo della Libertà, it claims a direct lineage with the Alleanza Nazionale – two cases not easily agglutinated into the PRR family. The article analyses the (dis)continuity associated with FdI, examining ideology, organisation, and the continuity of elites. It demonstrates that FdI’s organisation and political elites largely overlap with its predecessor parties. However, FdI accomplished a major ideological rebranding, positioning itself as radically different from both the mainstream centre-right and the post-fascist tradition of the Italian right.
意大利外商直接投资公司(FdI)是意大利政坛冉冉升起的新星。学者和权威人士迅速将其归类为(新)民粹主义激进右翼(PRR)政党。尽管如此,外国直接投资的新颖性需要得到适当的界定。它是自由人民党的一个分支,声称与国家联盟有直接的血缘关系——这两种情况不容易与PRR家族联系在一起。本文从意识形态、组织结构和精英的连续性三个方面分析了与FdI相关的非连续性。这表明,FdI的组织和政治精英在很大程度上与其前身政党重叠。然而,FdI完成了重大的意识形态重塑,将自己定位为与主流中右翼和意大利右翼的后法西斯传统截然不同。
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引用次数: 12
Yet Another Populist Party? Understanding the Rise of Brothers of Italy 又一个民粹主义政党?理解意大利兄弟的崛起
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2022.2159625
G. Baldini, Filippo Tronconi, Davide Angelucci
ABSTRACT From its 2012 beginnings as a marginal radical right splinter group, in the 2022 general election ‘Fratelli d’Italia’ (Brothers of Italy, FdI) was the most voted party and its leader, Giorgia Meloni, became the first Italian female Prime minister. While both leader and party can be classified as belonging to the populist radical right family, we argue that FdI must be understood also as a ‘rooted newcomer’, i.e. a party that can count on pre-existing organisational resources, building its appeal also on symbolic elements already familiar to the electorate when the party was formed. Focusing on the supply side, we tackle some of the main open questions related to the party’s ambivalent nature, often fluctuating between a post-fascist profile and a frequently reiterated support for other European radical right illiberal leaders and more moderate positions. We identify the politics of illiberalism as the key challenge the party faces in its transition from opposition to government.
从2012年开始作为一个边缘激进右翼分裂组织,在2022年大选中,“意大利兄弟党”(Fratelli d ' italia, FdI)成为投票最多的政党,其领导人乔治娅·梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)成为意大利第一位女总理。虽然领导人和政党都可以被归类为属于民粹主义激进右翼家族,但我们认为FdI也必须被理解为一个“根深蒂固的新人”,即一个可以依靠已有的组织资源的政党,在该党成立时也在选民已经熟悉的象征性元素上建立其吸引力。聚焦于供给面,我们解决了一些与该党矛盾性质相关的主要开放问题,该党经常在后法西斯形象和经常重申的对其他欧洲激进右翼非自由主义领导人和更温和立场的支持之间波动。我们认为,非自由主义政治是该党从反对党向政府过渡所面临的关键挑战。
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引用次数: 5
The Italian Democratic Party at the Crossroad: Party Activism and the Middle-Level Élite 十字路口的意大利民主党:政党激进主义与中层政治Élite
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2022.2161713
Paola Bordandini, C. Baccetti, L. Sartori
ABSTRACT We examine the middle-level élite of the Italian Democratic Party (Partito democratico, PD) and its founding parties, Democrats of the Left (Democratici di Sinistra, DS) and The Daisy (La Margherita, DL), over fifteen years (2004–2019). Our original dataset on national delegates comes from 2373 questionnaires collected at eight national party congresses. Inspired by Whiteley and Seyd’s concepts of low and high-intensity participation, we evaluate the relative weight of the various types of incentive in the two (internal and external) forms of party activism. Party activism is central to understanding the profound cultural, organisational, and electoral crisis that has put the PD at a crossroad and has led current secretary Letta to call for a ‘Constituent Congress of the New PD’.
我们研究了意大利民主党(Partito democratico, PD)及其创始政党左翼民主党(Democratici di sinista, DS)和雏菊党(La Margherita, DL)在过去15年(2004-2019)中的中层生活。我们关于国家代表的原始数据来自于在8个国家党代表大会上收集的2373份问卷。受Whiteley和Seyd的低强度和高强度参与概念的启发,我们评估了两种(内部和外部)政党激进主义形式中各种激励类型的相对权重。政党激进主义是理解深刻的文化、组织和选举危机的核心,这场危机将民主党置于十字路口,并导致现任秘书莱塔呼吁召开“新民主党制宪大会”。
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引用次数: 0
‘Your Luck is Our Luck’: Covid-19, the Radical Right and Low Polarisation in the 2022 Portuguese Elections “你的运气就是我们的运气”:2022年葡萄牙选举中的新冠肺炎、激进右翼和低两极分化
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2023.2191417
José Santana-Pereira, Elisabetta De Giorgi
ABSTRACT In the 2022 Portuguese legislative elections, held nearly two years after the pandemic hit the country, the incumbent Socialists improved their position, being now able to govern with an absolute majority, while populist radical right Chega experienced considerable growth. Was the pandemic a relevant factor for vote choice in these elections? The main goal of this article is to shed light on this matter. In addition to portraying this election’s background and results, we describe the degree of COVID-19-related polarisation in Portugal, analyse the salience of the pandemic in the campaign and measure the relative impact of pandemic-related perceptions vs other variables on voting behaviour. Our findings reveal that, although there was little politicisation of the pandemic and the incumbent enjoyed high levels of support among both political elites and public opinion, Chega, which was less involved in rallying around the flag, arguably sent signals that made COVID-19-related assessments relevant in terms of voting behaviour.
在葡新冠疫情爆发近两年后的2022年,葡萄牙举行了议会选举,执政的社会党(Socialists)的地位得到了提升,现在能够以绝对多数的优势执政,而民粹主义的激进右翼政党Chega则获得了可观的增长。在这些选举中,疫情是否成为投票选择的一个相关因素?本文的主要目的是阐明这个问题。除了描述本次选举的背景和结果外,我们还描述了葡萄牙与covid -19相关的两极分化程度,分析了该大流行在竞选中的显著性,并衡量了与大流行相关的看法与其他变量对投票行为的相对影响。我们的研究结果表明,尽管疫情几乎没有政治化,现任总统在政治精英和公众舆论中都享有很高的支持,但较少参与团结在旗帜周围的切加,可以说发出了信号,使与covid -19相关的评估在投票行为方面具有相关性。
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引用次数: 0
Political Polarisation on Social Media: Competing Understandings of Democracy in Turkey 社交媒体上的政治两极分化:土耳其对民主的竞争理解
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2023.2200901
Didem Türkoğlu, Meltem Odabaş, Doruk Tunaoglu, Mustafa Yavaş
ABSTRACT Heightened political polarisation threatens democratic stability. While prior studies find polarisation in competing groups’ deployment of different terminologies to describe the same topic, we emphasise that it can also be evident in groups’ attachment of different meanings to the same terminology. Competition for dominance in the public sphere is reflected in social media which become sites of contestation, showcasing antagonistic claims of legitimacy. In a case-study of the June 2019 rerun Istanbul elections in Turkey, we used qualitative and computational methods to analyse approximately 116,000 tweets, focusing on discussions around the themes of ‘democracy’, ‘elections’, and ‘public service’. Twitter users associated the act of casting a vote not only with electing the candidate, but also with a competition over the future of Turkish democracy.
政治两极分化加剧威胁着民主的稳定。虽然先前的研究发现,在竞争群体使用不同的术语来描述同一主题时,会出现两极分化,但我们强调,在群体对同一术语的不同含义的依恋中,这种两极分化也很明显。对公共领域主导地位的竞争反映在社交媒体上,社交媒体成为争论的场所,展示了对抗性的合法性主张。在2019年6月土耳其伊斯坦布尔重新选举的案例研究中,我们使用定性和计算方法分析了大约11.6万条推文,重点关注围绕“民主”、“选举”和“公共服务”主题的讨论。推特用户将投票行为不仅与选举候选人联系在一起,还与土耳其民主未来的竞争联系在一起。
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引用次数: 0
Explaining Morality Policy Coalitions in Spanish Parliamentary Votes: The Interaction of the Church-State Conflict and Territorial Politics 解释西班牙议会投票中的道德政策联盟:政教冲突与领土政治的互动
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2022.2132614
M. Léon, Manuel Alvariño, Llorenç Soler-Buades
ABSTRACT In this article we empirically explore the impact of the state-Church conflict on progressive moral policies. Taking Spain as a case study, we analyse the parliamentary interaction of political parties in a number of policy domains that provoke a moral conflict. We examine the principal legislative acts relating to abortion, divorce, same-sex marriage, euthanasia and gender equality from the early 1980s to 2021. We look beyond the religious divide and argue that its interaction with territorial politics, which is in turn shaped by specific institutional features, explains the formation of political coalitions that are conducive to moral legislation. Furthermore, we show that political coalitions vary depending on how explicit or implicit a given morality conflict is.
在本文中,我们实证地探讨了国家-教会冲突对进步道德政策的影响。以西班牙为例,我们分析了在一些引发道德冲突的政策领域中政党的议会互动。我们研究了从20世纪80年代初到2021年与堕胎、离婚、同性婚姻、安乐死和性别平等有关的主要立法行为。我们超越了宗教分歧,认为它与领土政治的相互作用,反过来又由特定的制度特征塑造,解释了有利于道德立法的政治联盟的形成。此外,我们还表明,政治联盟的变化取决于特定道德冲突的显性或隐性程度。
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引用次数: 0
Absolute and Benchmarked Economic Voting. A Subnational Perspective on a Decade of Elections in Southern Europe 绝对和基准经济投票。从次国家角度看南欧十年的选举
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2023.2202468
M. Giuliani
ABSTRACT The article analyses the 15 elections that took place between 2010 and 2019 in four South European countries – Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain – through the lenses of the retrospective vote theory. The large within-country variation of economic conditions justifies the adoption of an original subnational perspective, while the explicit test of alternative economic quantities and horizons provides a more credible assessment of voters’ behaviours. Besides offering a taxonomy of local retrospective voting, the research found that citizens assessed the incumbents against regional unemployment levels and national growth dynamics, further benchmarking the local economic conditions against their past performances. These results give credit to the idea that the South European electorate shares similar references in assessing the economic competences of incumbent governments.
本文运用回溯性投票理论对2010年至2019年在希腊、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙四个南欧国家举行的15次选举进行了分析。国内经济状况的巨大差异证明采用原始的次国家视角是合理的,而对其他经济数量和范围的明确测试则提供了对选民行为的更可信的评估。除了提供地方回顾性投票的分类外,该研究还发现,公民根据地区失业水平和国家增长动态来评估现任者,进一步将当地经济状况与他们过去的表现作为基准。这些结果证明,在评估现任政府的经济能力时,南欧选民有着相似的参考。
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引用次数: 1
Two Steps Forward, One Step Back: The Evolution of Democratic Digital Innovations in Podemos 前进两步,后退一步:Podemos民主数字创新的演变
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2022.2161973
Marco Meloni, Fabio G. Lupato
ABSTRACT While the digitalisation of political parties is increasingly analysed, less attention has been paid to the evolution of digital procedures and their consequences on intra-party democracy and party change. We propose a typology for identifying different types of evolution processes (consolidation, reconfiguration, mutation, and elimination) using the Spanish party Podemos paradigmatic case. Our analysis points out the centrality of hard and soft setbacks in the evolution of the digital procedures of the party. Findings indicate the relevance of different dynamics, such as institutionalisation, personalisation, and factionalism, jointly with other internal and external factors. Studying the evolution of digital party procedures is relevant for tracing party change in digital parties and other parties that are experiencing digitalisation processes.
虽然对政党数字化的分析越来越多,但对数字化程序的演变及其对党内民主和政党变革的影响的关注却很少。我们提出了一种类型学来识别不同类型的进化过程(整合、重构、突变和消除),使用西班牙政党Podemos的范例案例。我们的分析指出了党的数字化进程中硬挫折和软挫折的中心地位。研究结果表明,不同的动态因素,如制度化、个性化和派系主义,与其他内部和外部因素具有相关性。研究数字政党程序的演变与追踪数字政党和其他正在经历数字化进程的政党的变化有关。
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引用次数: 1
Affective and Territorial Polarisation: The Impact on Vote Choice in Spain 情感和地域两极分化:对西班牙投票选择的影响
IF 3.3 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2022.2044235
T. Rodon
ABSTRACT What is the effect of affective polarisation on vote choice? Despite the growing interest in affective polarisation, scholars still do not fully understand the relationship between partisan affective polarisation and political behaviour. Crucially, most existing studies have assumed, often by default, that affective polarisation mainly occurs along a single politicised partisan identity. This article addresses the hitherto neglected relationship between affective polarisation and vote choice in Spain, where distrust between different and opposite groups occurs both on ideological and territorial terms. Using rich panel data, the study findings show that both affective polarisation types are significant predictors of vote choice. While affectively partisan-polarised voters are more likely to support the left, affectively polarised voters on the territorial dimension are more likely to support the right.
情感极化对投票选择的影响是什么?尽管对党派情感两极化的研究兴趣日益浓厚,但学者们对党派情感两极化与政治行为之间的关系仍未完全理解。至关重要的是,大多数现有研究都假设(通常是默认的),情感两极分化主要发生在单一的政治党派认同上。本文解决了迄今为止被忽视的西班牙情感两极分化与投票选择之间的关系,在西班牙,不同和相反群体之间的不信任发生在意识形态和领土方面。使用丰富的面板数据,研究结果表明,两种情感极化类型都是投票选择的重要预测因素。在情感上,党派极化的选民更有可能支持左翼,而在领土层面上情感极化的选民更有可能支持右翼。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
South European Society and Politics
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