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Integrated landslide disaster risk management (ILDRiM): the challenge to avoid the construction of new disaster risk 综合滑坡灾害风险管理(ILDRiM):避免新建灾害风险的挑战
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2020.1810609
I. Alcántara-Ayala
ABSTRACT There is a recognised need for bridging the gap between science and policy making aiming at the reduction of landslide disaster risk. A growing body of literature articulates the significance of scientific contributions on landslide risk assessment at different spatial–temporal scales. However, most studies in this field have mainly focused on landslide hazards, whereas vulnerability has not been treated in much detail. The present study aimed to portray the challenge involved within the integrated landslide disaster risk management sphere to avoid the configuration of new disaster risk. It should be understood whereby that landslide exposure is exacerbated by current population growth and the intensification of the use of land and resources linked to profitable activities, which in turn lead to rural transformation and a greater extent of socio-economic occupation of depreciated land in areas susceptible to hazards, urban sprawling and even expensive housing on unstable slopes. This analysis provides evidence about the need to encourage integrated landslide disaster risk management (ILDRiM), not only in the sense of reducing existing risk, but to prevent new landslide disaster risk. Thereupon, recognising and addressing landslide root causes and disaster risk drivers strongly intertwined to exposure and vulnerability should be prioritised, whereas the need of informed disaster risk governance must neither be neglected.
人们认识到有必要弥合旨在减少滑坡灾害风险的科学和政策制定之间的差距。越来越多的文献阐明了在不同时空尺度上滑坡风险评估的科学贡献的重要性。然而,该领域的大多数研究主要集中在滑坡灾害上,而脆弱性尚未得到详细的研究。本研究旨在描述综合滑坡灾害风险管理领域所涉及的挑战,以避免新的灾害风险配置。应该理解的是,目前的人口增长和与有利可图的活动有关的土地和资源的使用加剧了山崩的危险,这反过来导致农村的变化和更大程度的社会经济占用易受灾害影响的地区贬值的土地,城市蔓延,甚至在不稳定的斜坡上建造昂贵的住房。这一分析为鼓励综合滑坡灾害风险管理(ILDRiM)的必要性提供了证据,不仅在减少现有风险的意义上,而且在防止新的滑坡灾害风险方面。因此,认识和解决滑坡的根本原因以及与暴露和脆弱性密切相关的灾害风险驱动因素应被优先考虑,而对知情的灾害风险治理的需求也不容忽视。
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引用次数: 10
Flooding and mobility: a polish analysis 泛洪和流动性:一种抛光分析
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-08-25 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2020.1810608
S. Wiśniewski, M. Kowalski, M. Borowska-Stefańska
ABSTRACT The article contains the evaluation of indirect impact, and more precisely, effects related to traffic disruptions and the resultant changes in transport accessibility following the occurrence of a flood. The applied purpose of the analysis is to demonstrate the differentiation in spatial traffic distribution and changes regarding (time and potential) accessibility in three flooding scenarios for the Warta Water Region (the scenario 10% and 1% probability of a flood occurrence, and for the total destruction of stopbanks) in Greater Poland. The research showed that the occurrence of disruptions from untypical flooding impacts both the change in spatial distribution of traffic load within the road network and the speed at which its users can travel therein. This indicates the need to simulate various flooding scenarios in order to be better prepared for the occurrence of such a natural disaster.
本文包含了间接影响的评估,更准确地说,是洪水发生后与交通中断相关的影响以及由此导致的交通可达性变化。该分析的应用目的是展示大波兰瓦尔塔水域三种洪水情景(洪水发生概率为10%和1%的情景,以及拦河坝完全被摧毁的情景)中空间交通分布和可达性(时间和潜在)变化的差异。研究表明,非典型洪水中断的发生既影响了路网内交通负荷的空间分布变化,也影响了用户在路网中行驶的速度。这表明需要模拟各种洪水情景,以便更好地为这种自然灾害的发生做好准备。
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引用次数: 9
Developing coastal relocation policy: lessons learned from the FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant Program 制定沿海搬迁政策:从联邦应急管理局减灾拨款计划吸取的经验教训
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-08-10 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2020.1804819
A. Bukvic, A. Borate
ABSTRACT Relocation is increasingly being considered a viable adaptation strategy in some coastal locations. Even though recent coastal disasters and a higher awareness of sea level rise have accentuated the importance of relocation, this is not a new strategy and has been applied as an effective hazard mitigation measure over the last three decades. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the acquisition and relocation projects funded between 1989 and 2016 as a part of the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) and determine how the allocations for these projects evolved over time. A trend analysis was applied to assess how the number and the dollar amount of approved acquisition/relocation projects differ between coastal and inland counties, and within these categories, between rural and urban districts. Our findings show that inland counties had a significantly higher number of projects in any given year; however, average cost per coastal project has been continually increasing while that of inland projects decreased over the study period. Further, there is no marked difference between the number of and total amount spent on inland rural versus urban projects, while those in the coastal zone significantly differ in all categories between rural and urban counties.
在一些沿海地区,搬迁越来越被认为是一种可行的适应策略。尽管最近的沿海灾害和对海平面上升的更高认识使重新安置的重要性更加突出,但这不是一项新战略,在过去三十年中一直作为一种有效的减灾措施加以应用。本文的主要目的是评估1989年至2016年期间作为减灾拨款计划(HMGP)的一部分资助的收购和搬迁项目,并确定这些项目的拨款如何随着时间的推移而演变。采用趋势分析来评估核定的收购/搬迁项目的数量和金额在沿海和内陆县之间以及在这些类别中农村和城市地区之间的差异。我们的研究结果表明,内陆县在任何一年的项目数量都要高得多;然而,在研究期间,沿海项目的平均成本不断增加,而内陆项目的平均成本则不断下降。此外,内陆农村与城市项目的数量和总额之间没有显著差异,而沿海地区的所有类别在农村和城市县之间都存在显著差异。
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引用次数: 9
Localising the UN cluster approach: the Philippines as a case study 联合国集群方法的本土化:以菲律宾为例
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-08-07 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2019.1677209
Mikael Raffael T. Abaya, L. Le Dé, Yany Lopez
ABSTRACT The cluster approach is a coordination mechanism implemented by the United Nations (UN) in 2005 to improve the effectiveness of humanitarian responses during and after disasters. To date, more than 36 countries have used the UN cluster system. Yet, studies investigating the efficacy of this coordination mechanism at a national level are limited. Research adopting a long-term approach to the cluster by exploring whether this system provides an effective coordination system is almost non-existent. Focusing on the Philippines, one of the first countries worldwide to have adapted the cluster system, this paper analyses the application of the cluster during different major disasters. The paper examines how, since 2007, the Philippines modified the cluster system to make it suitable for the national context and highlights positive and negative outcomes as well as remaining challenges. The paper concludes that a one-size-fits-all approach to the cluster system cannot be effective but should be adapted to the local conditions of the country. This is critical so the cluster system can fit with existing structures and frameworks at national level, creates more ownership from national and local agencies, improves coordination with international humanitarian agencies, and ultimately increases the effectiveness of disaster management.
集群方法是联合国于2005年实施的一种协调机制,旨在提高灾害期间和灾后人道主义反应的有效性。迄今为止,已有超过36个国家使用了联合国集群系统。然而,在国家层面上调查这种协调机制的有效性的研究是有限的。采用一种长期的方法来探讨集群是否提供一个有效的协调系统的研究几乎是不存在的。菲律宾是世界上最早采用集群系统的国家之一,本文以菲律宾为例,分析了集群在不同重大灾害中的应用。本文考察了自2007年以来菲律宾如何修改集群系统,使其适合本国国情,并强调了积极和消极的结果以及仍然存在的挑战。本文的结论是,对集群系统采取“一刀切”的方法是无效的,而应根据本国的具体情况进行调整。这是至关重要的,以便集群系统能够适应国家一级的现有结构和框架,使国家和地方机构拥有更多的自主权,改善与国际人道主义机构的协调,并最终提高灾害管理的有效性。
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引用次数: 4
Evolution of online public opinion during meteorological disasters 气象灾害期间网络舆论的演变
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-08-07 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2019.1685932
Xubu Ma, Wei Liu, Xiaoyang Zhou, Chunxiu Qin, Ying Chen, Yafan Xiang, Xiaoyu Zhang, Ming Zhao
ABSTRACT Meteorological disasters are important public events that can generate a wide range of online public opinion. Studying the patterns and mechanisms of public opinion dissemination during meteorological disasters and moderately strengthening the voice of official media can alleviate public nervousness and facilitate disaster prevention, reduction, and recovery. Therefore, taking Typhoon Mangkhut as an example, we collected data from Sina Weibo in China and Twitter in the Philippines. Based on a ‘data preparation–public opinion mining–data analysis’ framework, patterns and characteristics of the evolution of public opinion were identified through social network analysis and sentiment analysis methods. The results showed that public opinion surrounding Mangkhut differed in the two countries. The trend in public opinion was ‘low-high-low.’ During natural disasters, shifts in opinion exhibited a ‘positive–negative-positive’ pattern. In the Philippines, netizen sentiment reached lowest point 24–48 h after the typhoon landed and recovered steadily and quickly. However, among Chinese netizens, sentiment hit lowest point later, mostly because of a man-made negative event. To help people cope with natural disasters, the Chinese official media should promptly release accurate information, play a more active role in guiding public opinion, and pay more attention to man-made negative events during disasters.
气象灾害是重要的公共事件,可以产生广泛的网络舆论。研究气象灾害中舆论传播的模式和机制,适度加强官方媒体的话语权,可以缓解公众的紧张情绪,促进防灾减灾和灾后恢复。因此,以台风“山竹”为例,我们从中国的新浪微博和菲律宾的Twitter上收集数据。基于“数据准备-舆情挖掘-数据分析”的框架,通过社会网络分析和情感分析方法,识别了舆情演变的模式和特征。结果显示,两国围绕山竹的舆论存在差异。公众舆论的趋势是“低-高-低”。在自然灾害期间,舆论的转变呈现出“正面-负面-正面”的模式。在菲律宾,台风登陆后24-48小时,网民情绪达到最低点,并迅速稳定恢复。然而,在中国网民中,情绪后来跌至最低点,主要是因为人为的负面事件。为了帮助人们应对自然灾害,中国官方媒体应该及时发布准确的信息,发挥更积极的舆论引导作用,并在灾害期间更多地关注人为的负面事件。
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引用次数: 14
Economic ‘normalisation’ of disaster losses 1998–2020: a literature review and assessment 1998-2020年灾害损失的经济“正常化”:文献回顾和评估
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-08-05 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2020.1800440
R. Pielke
ABSTRACT Nowadays, following every weather disaster quickly follow estimates of economic loss. Quick blame for those losses, or some part, often is placed on claims of more frequent or intense weather events. However, understanding what role changes in climate may have played in increasing weather-related disaster losses is challenging because, in addition to changes in climate, society also undergoes dramatic change. Increasing development and wealth influence exposure and vulnerability to loss – typically increasing exposure while reducing vulnerability. In recent decades a scientific literature has emerged that seeks to adjust historical economic damage from extreme weather to remove the influences of societal change from economic loss time series to estimate what losses past extreme events would cause under present-day societal conditions. In regions with broad exposure to loss, an unbiased economic normalisation will exhibit trends consistent with corresponding climatological trends in related extreme events, providing an independent check on normalisation results. This paper reviews 54 normalisation studies published 1998–2020 and finds little evidence to support claims that any part of the overall increase in global economic losses documented on climate time scales is attributable to human-caused changes in climate, reinforcing conclusions of recent assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
如今,每次天气灾害之后,都会迅速对经济损失进行估算。对这些损失的迅速指责,或部分归咎于更频繁或更强烈的天气事件。然而,了解气候变化在增加与天气有关的灾害损失中可能发挥的作用是具有挑战性的,因为除了气候变化之外,社会也经历了巨大的变化。发展和财富的增加会影响风险和易受损失的程度——通常是在增加风险的同时减少脆弱性。近几十年来,出现了一篇科学文献,试图调整极端天气造成的历史经济损失,从经济损失时间序列中消除社会变化的影响,以估计过去的极端事件在当今社会条件下会造成什么损失。在损失敞口较大的地区,无偏见的经济正常化将显示出与相关极端事件中相应的气候趋势一致的趋势,从而为正常化结果提供独立的检查。本文回顾了1998-2020年发表的54项标准化研究,发现几乎没有证据支持气候时间尺度上记录的全球经济损失总体增加的任何部分可归因于人为引起的气候变化的说法,这加强了政府间气候变化专门委员会最近评估的结论。
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引用次数: 22
Hydrometeorological disasters in urban areas of Costa Rica, Central America 中美洲哥斯达黎加城市地区的水文气象灾害
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-07-09 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2020.1791034
A. Quesada-Román, Ernesto Villalobos-Portilla, D. Campos-Durán
ABSTRACT Tropical countries are subjected to natural disasters which cause substantial human and economic losses. Coping with disasters in tropics requires to improve our understanding of the frequency and distribution of hydrometeorological disaster events. These assessments are scarce in many developing countries, despite rapid urban expansion and lacking efficient public policies. Costa Rica’s location over the Intertropical Convergence Zone, its mountainous landscapes, and vulnerability generate risks conditions for urbans centers. Here, we analyze the Greater Metropolitan Area of Costa Rica (GAM in Spanish), a region that concentrates 65% of the national population. We analyze the hydrometeorological disasters occurrence and distribution in the GAM as well as a population and social indicators analysis to identify spatial patterns of demographic growth. Our results indicate that 5987 hydrometeorological disasters events were reported in the GAM between 1970 and 2018. From this total, 63.7% were floods, 35.3% landslides, 0.9% droughts and 0.1% storms. Coupling historical natural disasters and public policies to an urban sprawl continuous process in the GAM is a critical tool for land use planning and disaster risk reduction decision makers. Results from this study can enhance our understanding on the spatiotemporal characteristics of natural disasters in developing and/or tropical countries urban areas.
热带国家经常遭受自然灾害,造成巨大的人员和经济损失。应对热带灾害需要提高我们对水文气象灾害事件的频率和分布的认识。在许多发展中国家,尽管城市迅速扩张,缺乏有效的公共政策,但这些评估很少。哥斯达黎加位于热带辐合带上方,其山地地貌和脆弱性为城市中心带来了风险条件。在这里,我们分析了哥斯达黎加大都市区(西班牙语为GAM),该地区集中了全国65%的人口。通过对流域水文气象灾害发生和分布的分析,以及人口和社会指标的分析,确定了流域人口增长的空间格局。结果表明,1970 - 2018年,GAM共报告水文气象灾害事件5987起。其中,洪水占63.7%,滑坡占35.3%,干旱占0.9%,风暴占0.1%。在GAM中,将历史自然灾害和公共政策与城市扩张的连续过程相结合,是土地利用规划和减少灾害风险决策者的重要工具。研究结果有助于加深对发展中国家和/或热带国家城市地区自然灾害时空特征的认识。
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引用次数: 40
Gulf Coast parents speak: children’s health in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill 墨西哥湾沿岸的父母讲话:深水地平线漏油事件后孩子们的健康
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-06-16 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2020.1772188
Jaishree Beedasy, E. Petkova, S. Lackner, J. Sury
ABSTRACT This paper examines the physical and mental health of children following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DHOS). A multi-stage sampling design was used to select households for inclusion in the study. Data were obtained from parental interviews (n = 720) in the harder-hit areas of Louisiana in the US Gulf Coast. Three out of five parents reported that their child had experienced physical health symptoms and nearly one third reported that their child had mental health issues since the oil spill. Both direct physical exposure and indirect economic exposure were found to be predictors of physical and mental health issues among the children. Our findings contribute to bridge the research gap on the impacts of the direct and indirect exposures of the DHOS on the health of children. The study underscores the importance of understanding the health and recovery trajectories of children and youth exposed to disasters. Knowledge gained from this study together with the emerging literature on the effect of the oil spill disaster on children can contribute towards more evidence-based public health policies and enhance the recovery of children and their families in the aftermath of disasters.
摘要:本文研究了深水地平线石油泄漏(DHOS)后儿童的身心健康状况。采用多阶段抽样设计来选择纳入研究的家庭。数据来自美国墨西哥湾沿岸路易斯安那州重灾区的家长访谈(n = 720)。五分之三的父母报告说,他们的孩子经历了身体健康症状,近三分之一的父母报告说,自从石油泄漏以来,他们的孩子出现了精神健康问题。发现直接身体接触和间接经济接触都是儿童身心健康问题的预测因素。我们的研究结果有助于填补关于直接和间接接触DHOS对儿童健康影响的研究空白。这项研究强调了了解遭受灾害的儿童和青年的健康和恢复轨迹的重要性。从这项研究中获得的知识,加上关于溢油灾难对儿童影响的新文献,可有助于制定更多以证据为基础的公共卫生政策,并加强灾后儿童及其家庭的恢复。
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引用次数: 11
Strategic property buyouts to enhance flood resilience: a multi-criteria spatial approach for incorporating ecological values into the selection process 策略性收购物业以增强防洪能力:将生态价值纳入选择过程的多标准空间方法
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-05-28 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2020.1771251
Kayode O. Atoba, S. Brody, W. Highfield, C. Shepard, Lily N. Verdone
ABSTRACT The impact of recent flood events, such as hurricane Harvey in 2017 which affected the upper Texas coastal region, has sparked new proposals for buying out damaged properties to reduce flood risk and return them to natural open space. Traditionally, buyouts have been carried out with little regard for non-monetary benefits, such as ecological and aesthetic values, but have been driven by a cost–benefit calculus that leads to a reactionary, ad hoc selection process after a flood event has already occurred. This standard practice can result in a disjointed pattern of open spaces that does little to protect environmental assets. In response to the lack of research that also considers the complementary ecological benefits of buyout programmes, this study tests a methodological framework that identifies candidate parcels for acquisition along a spectrum of ecological and proximity variables, by statistically and spatially identifying the nexus between ecological value and economic benefits when acquiring flooded properties. Importantly, we show that including these criteria does not significantly reduce the cost-effectiveness of buyouts and that acquiring parcels for flood risk reduction can be combined with protecting ecological values in a way that helps communities to become more resilient over the long term.
最近的洪水事件,如2017年飓风哈维影响了德克萨斯州北部沿海地区,引发了新的建议,即购买受损财产以降低洪水风险,并将其归还给自然开放空间。传统上,收购很少考虑非货币利益,如生态和美学价值,而是受到成本效益计算的驱动,导致洪水事件发生后,一个反动的、临时的选择过程。这种标准做法可能导致开放空间的脱节模式,对保护环境资产几乎没有帮助。由于缺乏考虑买断计划的互补生态效益的研究,本研究测试了一种方法框架,该框架通过统计和空间识别在获得洪水财产时生态价值和经济效益之间的联系,沿着生态和邻近变量的光谱确定候选地块。重要的是,我们表明,包括这些标准不会显著降低收购的成本效益,并且可以将购买土地以降低洪水风险与保护生态价值相结合,从而帮助社区在长期内变得更具弹性。
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引用次数: 18
The (im)possibilities of disaster risk reduction in the context of high-intensity conflict: the case of Afghanistan 在高强度冲突背景下减少灾害风险的可能性:以阿富汗为例
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-05-26 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2020.1771250
R. Mena, D. Hilhorst
ABSTRACT Conflict aggravates disaster risk and impact through increased vulnerability and weakened response capacities. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) and disaster governance are needed – but often deemed unfeasible – in conflict-affected areas. In Afghanistan, despite the high-intensity conflict (HIC), there is a growing body of practice on DRR. To provide insight on DRR in HIC contexts, this study used document analysis, stakeholder interviews, and participant observation to analyse the promotion, implementation, and challenges of DRR in Afghanistan. The findings show that DRR was promoted after international recognition of Afghanistan’s high disaster risk, which coincided with expanding opportunities for development. Early Afghan DRR projects were hazard-oriented and focused on mitigation infrastructure, but some have shifted towards an integrated approach. DRR is challenging in HIC contexts because of complex logistical and funding needs required to overcome access and security issues. The Afghan experience shows that DRR is possible in HIC countries, provided that different levels of conflict are acknowledged, sufficient time and funding are available, and disaster governance arrangements are in place. Expectations regarding the possibilities for DRR in HIC areas should be tempered by the realities of limitations in terms of geographical coverage, real impact, and capacities to reduce vulnerability in an integrated way.
冲突增加了脆弱性,削弱了应对能力,从而加剧了灾害风险和影响。在受冲突影响的地区,减少灾害风险和灾害治理是必要的,但往往被认为是不可行的。在阿富汗,尽管存在高强度冲突(HIC),但在DRR方面的实践越来越多。为了深入了解HIC背景下的DRR,本研究采用文件分析、利益相关者访谈和参与者观察等方法分析了DRR在阿富汗的推广、实施和挑战。研究结果表明,在国际社会认识到阿富汗的高灾害风险之后,DRR得到了推广,这与发展机会的扩大相吻合。阿富汗早期的减少灾害风险项目以风险为导向,侧重于缓解基础设施,但一些项目已转向综合办法。DRR在HIC背景下具有挑战性,因为克服获取和安全问题需要复杂的后勤和资金需求。阿富汗的经验表明,只要认识到不同程度的冲突,有足够的时间和资金,并有灾害治理安排,在高负债国家,减少灾害风险是可能的。在地理覆盖范围、实际影响和以综合方式减少脆弱性的能力方面存在局限性的现实,应降低对高收入地区减少灾害风险可能性的期望。
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引用次数: 18
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Environmental Hazards-Human and Policy Dimensions
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