Background: New literature has emerged examining the relationship between government-funded healthcare or health insurance for low-income people and crime rates. Studies for developing countries have, however, not yet been conducted in this area. To fill this gap, we studied Türkiye's noncontributory health insurance scheme (Green Card) that provides a full range of health cover to people whose per capita household income is less than one-third of the minimum wage and contemporaneous crime rates.
Aims: To examine the relationship between government-funded health insurance for low-income people and crime rates in Türkiye.
Methods: We used monthly criminal records data, according to date, for the crime committed during the 12 years 2010-2021, inclusive, from the Ministry of Justice of Türkiye and Green Card health insurance holder data from the Social Security Institution of Türkiye for the same period. We merged the two databases and used a two-way fixed-effect ordinary least squares analysis to test for any relationship between health insurance and crime.
Results: Our results indicate that a 10% increase in the Green Card health insurance rate is associated with significantly lower rates of assault, theft, damage to property and within-household ill-treatment crimes (1.4%, 0.8%, 1.5% and 4%, respectively).
Conclusions: Our results indicate that government funding for healthcare for low-income people is associated with lower rates of various types of crime. Although this is consistent with findings in other countries with similar healthcare arrangements, it is the first time such a study has been conducted in a low- to middle-income country. Further study is needed to explore where the greatest health gains were made among those with this type of insurance and how any such improvements relate to lower crime rates.
This paper takes on ‘Farrington's challenge’ ‘to bridge the gap between risk factor research and more complex explanatory theories’ by offering an explanation for the unexplained statistical phenomenon of cumulative risk. We argue that cumulative risk primarily reflects the social contexts which crime relevant causal processes operate in and draw upon for their content and efficacy.
This paper tests if the immediate causes of crime according to Situational Action Theory (crime propensity and criminogenic exposure) can account for the relationship between cumulative risk (reflecting key features of family, neighbourhood, school and peer contexts) and crime involvement.
The paper uses data from the Peterborough Adolescent and Young Adult Development Study (PADS+) reflecting the social lives and criminal behaviour of a randomly sampled UK age cohort from ages 12 to 24 (2003–2016). Data used are drawn from parent and participant questionnaires, space–time budgets, community surveys, the UK Census and land use databases.
Cumulative risk statistically accounts for 7% and 8% of the variance in crime prevalence and frequency, respectively, whereas crime propensity and criminogenic exposure account for 52% and 58%, respectively. Moreover, and importantly, measures of crime propensity and criminogenic exposure fully account for (statistically mediate) the association between cumulative risk and both crime prevalence and crime frequency.
Cumulative risk does not represent cumulative causation. The phenomenon of cumulative risk is best understood as representing the social context. Future research should focus on identifying features of social contexts that provide relevant content to and impact the efficacy of key action (and developmental) processes in crime causation.
The criminal career paradigm represented a fundamental shift within criminology as it drew attention to the longitudinal patterning of offending, with research findings leading to important new insights on matters related to theory, methods and policy.
This study examines the longitudinal crime mix among sex and non-sex offenders.
Administrative data of over 43,000 individuals released from incarceration in the State of Texas through age 70 are used to examine crime mixture patterns.
Key findings show that: having a sex offence history significantly decreased the likelihood of arrest by age and that having a first arrest for a sex offence was associated with significantly lower odds of any subsequent arrest and violent non-sex offence arrests.
The criminal career patterns of sex offenders are not more specialised, violent, nor frequent compared to non-sex offenders.
Theories and policy associated with sex offenders must take into account their lack of crime type specialisation.
The Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) is one of the most important prospective criminological longitudinal studies in the world. This now-famous study of 411 boys, followed up from age 8 (in 1961) to 48 with in-person social interviews and up to 61 in official records, has produced an immense range and depth of knowledge.
The aim of the current paper is to describe recent efforts that have been made to both secure the data available from the CSDD by digitising the historical paper records and to obtain new data by undertaking a new wave of data collection with the men at about age 70.
Both the archiving of paper records and the new interviews significantly expand the depth and range of research questions that the CSDD can address. A surprisingly high proportion of the selected samples of men interviewed at about age 70 self-reported an offence.
These new developments solidify the status of the CSDD, David Farrington's legacy, as a world-leading source of information about the development and maintenance of criminal and antisocial behaviour.
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